nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒08‒23
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. How do Real and Monetary Integrations Affect Inflation Dynamics in Turkey? By Hulya Saygili
  2. Cross-border Transactions and Network Analysis: Evidence from Turkey By Tuba Pelin Sumer; Suheyla Ozyildirim
  3. Impact of the pandemic Covid-19 on Moroccan investments in West Africa: The case of ECOWAS By Asmaa Chouhaibi
  4. Between Hope and Despair: Egypt's Revolution and Migration Intentions By Yvonne Giesing; Reem Hassan
  5. Evolution of the tax framework of participatory products in Morocco By Asmae Mrhar; Aziz Bensbahou
  6. A Comparative Study on Turkey’s Science and Technology (S&T) Indicators By Gemici, Evrim; Gemici, Zafer
  7. Poverty and Inequality in Tunisia: Recent Trends By Kokas, Deeksha; El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
  8. Knowledge management and academic performance moderating role of organizational structure: Abdelmalek essaadi university case By Yassine Boussenna
  9. Individual preferences towards nuclear energy: the transient residency effect By Contu, Davide; Mourato, Susana; Kaya, Ozgur
  10. Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices By Salaheddine Soummane; F. Ghersi; Franck Lecocq
  11. Saudi Arabia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  12. Iraq—Technical Assistance Report-Customs Valuation, Rules of Origin and Tariff Classification of Goods By International Monetary Fund
  14. معدلات التضخم المحفزة للنمو الاقتصادي : مقاربة نموذج العتبة من الجزائر By Khouiled, Brahim; Sellami, Ahmed; Saheb, Oualid

  1. By: Hulya Saygili
    Abstract: This paper examines the significance of real and monetary integrations among countries on the inflationary dynamics of an emerging country, Turkey. The analysis accounts for 2-digit items of CPI inflation which can be broadly categorized as tradable/non-tradable and goods/services. The results show that fall in inflation gap between the partners is mainly related with the real integration while co-movement of inflation is prominently driven by the monetary policy co-movement. The product type analysis documents that inflation gap in tradable items shrinks and become more correlated with the convergence and co-movement of real variables.
    Keywords: Globalization, Inflation gap, Co-movement, CPI sub-items, Turkey
    JEL: E31 F14 F4
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Tuba Pelin Sumer; Suheyla Ozyildirim
    Abstract: Funding from foreign banks in repo, deposit and loan type is an important financing channel for Turkish banks. For hedging currency risk, Turkish banks are also making derivative transactions with foreign counterparties. In this paper, we study on-balance and off-balance sheet relations between Turkish banks and foreign-domiciled banks for 2014-2018 period using network analysis techniques. We group banks according to their business models (islamic vs conventional) and ownership structure (related vs unrelated) and document the evolution of cross-border relationships. We find that islamic domestic banks prefer islamic counterparties in on-balance sheet transactions, however they also work with the conventional banks in the derivative transactions. Additionally, we show that the share of funding from foreign domiciled banks is higher for the domestic subsidiaries of foreign banks. Finally, we find that the currency movement in 2018 seems to change some of the cross-border relations.Creation-Date: 2021
    Keywords: Cross-border bank lending, Network analysis, Financial interconnectedness
    JEL: G21 L14 F34 G15
  3. By: Asmaa Chouhaibi (Université Mohammed V)
    Abstract: The occurrence of the pandemic (Covid 19), caused a negative shock on world economic growth which exceeds in intensity that of the economic crisis of 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund in 2020. In Africa, the rapid spread of Covid 19 has had negative effects on all spheres of sustainable development. In this context, the Moroccan economy and the ECOWAS zone have not been excluded from the pandemic either at the health level or at the level of sustainable development. This work analyzes the impact of Covid 19 on Foreign Direct Investments between Morocco and ECOWAS, given that Morocco has now become the 2nd investor in Africa, after South Africa, and the first in Africa from West. This document will present, on the one hand, a theoretical analysis, of which we will describe the pandemic situation in West Africa with quantified data, then the presentation of ECOWAS, and, on the other hand, an empirical analysis which will consist of studying first the inventory of FDI between Morocco and ECOWAS, for a period before and during the pandemic, then will present an econometric study in order to measure the impact of the pandemic on FDI between the two partners in the coming years.
    Abstract: La survenance de la pandémie (Covid 19) a provoqué un choc négatif sur la croissance économique mondiale qui dépasse en intensité celle de la crise économique de 2008, selon le Fonds Monétaire International en 2020. En Afrique, la propagation rapide de la Covid 19 a eu des effets négatifs sur toutes les sphères du développement durable. Dans ce cadre, l'économie marocaine et la zone de la CEDEAO n'ont pas été exclues de la pandémie que soit au niveau sanitaire, ou bien au niveau du développement durable. Le présent travail, analyse l'impact de la Covid 19 sur les Investissements Directs Etrangers entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, vu que le Maroc est devenu aujourd'hui le 2e investisseur en Afrique, après l'Afrique Sud, et le premier en Afrique de l'Ouest. Ce document présentera d'une part une analyse théorique, dont on va décrire la situation pandémique en Afrique de l'Ouest avec des données chiffrées, ensuite la présentation de la CEDEAO, et d'autre part une analyse empirique qui consistera à étudier d'abord l'état des lieux des IDE entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, et ce pour une période avant et au cours de la pandémie, ensuite présentera une étude économétrique en vue de mesurer l'impact de la pandémie sur les IDE entre les deux partenaires pour les années à venir.
    Keywords: Morocco,ECOWAS,West Africa,Pandemic,Covid-19,Investment,Investissements,Maroc,CEDEAO,Afrique,Afrique de l'Ouest,Covid 19,Pandémie
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Yvonne Giesing; Reem Hassan
    Abstract: We study the effect of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and its aftermath on migration intentions of the Egyptian youth. We measure revolution intensity using the spacial variation in the number of deaths during the revolution from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution Wikithawra and combine it with data on migration intentions from the Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt (HSYPE). Difference-in-difference estimations show that the revolution significantly decreased the migration intentions of youth, especially young men. Single women did not change their migration intentions, mainly due to their financial dependence. Results also show that the youth living in informal slum areas experienced stronger effects. We describe two opposing channels: the insecurity channel, which positively affects migration intentions, and the optimism channel, which negatively affects migration intentions by inducing hope in a better Egyptian future. Youth in rural and slum areas were more sensitive to the optimism channel, due to their higher threshold of insecurity perception.
    Keywords: political instability, migration, Egypt, revolution
    JEL: D74 F22 O15 P16
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Asmae Mrhar (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Aziz Bensbahou (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl)
    Abstract: Morocco has finally joined the trajectory of participatory finance. However, despite the efforts made to promote this nascent industry, this is still very insufficient to encourage it. In addition, the tax variable is a determining factor in the financing decision because it weighs heavily on the cost of participatory banking products. In the absence of tax regulations that take into account the nature of these products and put in place an incentive and encouraging tax framework that guarantees better tax neutrality, this industry risks being less competitive compared to their conventional counterparts. The scarcity of studies dealing with this tax evolution, prompted us to study and analyze this question, while basing ourselves on the evolution of the tax framework of these products in Morocco and also on the various tax novelties brought by the succession of the laws of finances.
    Abstract: Le Maroc s'est enfin inscrit dans la trajectoire de la finance participative. Cependant, malgré les efforts déployés pour promouvoir cette industrie naissante, cela reste très insuffisant pour l'encourager. Par ailleurs, la variable fiscale constitue une déterminante de la décision de financement du fait qu'elle pèse lourdement sur le coût des produits bancaires participatifs. Dans l'absence d'une réglementation fiscale prenant en considération la nature de ces produits et mettant en place un cadre fiscal incitatif et encourageant et garantissant une meilleure neutralité fiscale, cette industrie risque d'être moins compétitive en comparaison avec leurs homologues conventionnels. La rareté des études traitant cette évolution fiscale nous a poussés à étudier et à analyser cette question, tout en nous basant sur l'évolution du cadre fiscal de ces produits au Maroc et aussi sur les différentes nouveautés fiscales apportées par la succession des lois de finances.
    Keywords: Tax Neutrality,Participatory Finance,Financing Decision,Tax Variable,Neutralité Fiscal,Décision de Financement,Variable Fiscale,Finance Participative
    Date: 2021–07–27
  6. By: Gemici, Evrim; Gemici, Zafer
    Abstract: Science and technology (S&T) indicators are important in evaluating how successful countries are in factors described by endogenous growth models. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to investigate S&T indicators of Turkey in a comparative and more hitherto comprehensive study and to present a guiding reference for researchers and decision makers working on innovation and technology policies. This study was carried out using online databases such as those of the OECD, World Bank, Eurostat, and TÜİK considering the criteria used in the literature to measure countries’ R&D and innovation performances, and Turkey’s innovative performance is presented in comparison with the world’s by summarizations within the scope of the study. The results demonstrate that Turkey has made significant progress in the last 20 years in terms of R&D and innovation, but it is still far from reaching the indicators of developed countries. In particular, the increase in R&D and innovation performance has decreased due to the economic difficulties experienced in the world and in Turkey after 2012 and 2013. Based on the indicators evaluated in this study, some suggestions are given and prioritized to increase Turkey’s innovation performance.
    Date: 2021–08–14
  7. By: Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank)
    Abstract: Tunisia's reforms and agile shift to a more democratic political system since a major political revolution in 2011 has not prevented continued and rising citizen discontent. While this paper does not directly analyze this vexing problem, it assesses welfare indicators and labor markets nationally, regionally, and across different population groups—such as women and youth—over the last two decades. The paper shows that while Tunisia has significantly reduced poverty between 2000 and 2019, the profile of the poor has not changed much: poverty remains concentrated in rural and western regions, mainly among households with younger men without education and headed by someone working in low-productivity sectors such as agriculture and construction. Moreover, the share of the vulnerable Tunisian population at risk of falling into poverty is quite large, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, even though poverty had been declining over the past two decades. Non-monetary dimensions of well-being, such as access to basic services, are also unevenly distributed across regions and population groups. COVID-19 has further aggravated these disparities and is reversing Tunisia's poverty reduction gains. The paper sheds light into the issues that require policy attention on poverty.
    Keywords: poverty, inequality, Tunisia
    JEL: J31 F16
    Date: 2021–07
  8. By: Yassine Boussenna (UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-)
    Abstract: In a knowledge-based economy, and a context of fierce international competition that spares no field. universities as organizations highly dependent on knowledge should pay special attention to it and its management, in such a way that the effective management of this asset is a key factor in building a competitive advantage and became the cornerstone of efforts to improve the performance of the university. In addition, it has long been demonstrated that better knowledge management has a positive impact on organizational performance. However, it is not yet clear how this process is to be achieved in academia and particularly in developing countries such as Morocco. On the other hand, and throughout the literature, several factors affect positively KM initiatives in public organizations and more specifically in universities are discussed. Some of these are the same as those found for private organizations and others are specific to public organizations. Most authors cite the organizational structure. This work has the main objective to verify the moderating role of organizational structure on the intensity of the relationship between the application of knowledge management and organizational performance of Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of the Abdelmalek Essaadi University teacher-researchers, through a hypotheticodeductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained prove the moderating and positive role of organizational structure, on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the K.M and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a degree of impact of 1.1%.
    Abstract: Dans une économie fondée sur la connaissance, et dans un contexte de concurrence internationale féroce qui n'épargne aucun domaine, les universités, en tant qu'organisations fortement dépendantes de la connaissance, devraient accorder une attention particulière à celle-ci et à sa gestion, de telle sorte que la gestion efficace de cet actif soit un facteur clé dans la construction d'un avantage concurrentiel et devienne la pierre angulaire des efforts pour améliorer la performance de l'université. En outre, il a été démontré depuis longtemps qu'une meilleure gestion des connaissances a un impact positif sur les performances organisationnelles. Cependant, la manière de réaliser ce processus n'est pas encore claire dans le milieu universitaire et particulièrement dans les pays en développement comme le Maroc. D'autre part, et à travers la littérature, plusieurs facteurs affectant positivement les initiatives de GC dans les organisations publiques et plus spécifiquement dans les universités sont discutés. Certains de ces facteurs sont les mêmes que ceux que l'on retrouve pour les organisations privées et d'autres sont spécifiques aux organisations publiques. La plupart des auteurs citent la structure organisationnelle. Ce travail a pour objectif principal de vérifier le rôle modérateur de la structure organisationnelle sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application de la gestion des connaissances et la performance organisationnelle de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi. en recueillant les points de vue des enseignants-chercheurs de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi, à travers une approche de raisonnement hypothético-déductive et une méthode de travail quantitative. Notre questionnaire a été administré à un échantillon représentatif de 88 enseignants-chercheurs des différentes institutions de l'université étudiée. Les résultats obtenus prouvent le rôle modérateur et positif de la structure organisationnelle, sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application du K.M et (Formation, recherche, publication, et gouvernance) comme indicateurs de la performance organisationnelle avec un degré d'impact de 1,1%.
    Keywords: organizational structure,knowledge management,academic performance,Moroccan universities
    Date: 2021–05–31
  9. By: Contu, Davide; Mourato, Susana; Kaya, Ozgur
    Abstract: Nuclear energy is an energy source that is usually unfavourable among the public due to its inherent risks. However, it presents a number of benefits, including the possibility to reduce emissions and the contribution to tackle climate change. Among the countries adopting nuclear energy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is unusual in that a large share of its residents consists of expatriates who live only part of their lives in the country with no (or highly unlikely) access to citizenship. This distinctive population structure offers the opportunity to investigate the effect of transient residency on acceptance and preferences towards nuclear energy. We conducted this investigation by designing a stated preferences-based survey, targeting an online nationwide sample. The survey collected information on socio-economic characteristics and attitudes, including views on perceived risks and benefits of nuclear energy, views towards different energy sources and life satisfaction. Results indicate that transient individuals, especially those who are more satisfied with their lives in the UAE, are significantly less likely to oppose the construction of new nuclear plants. These individuals are characterized by a more positive perception of benefits over risks arising from nuclear energy. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: choice experiments; Nuclear energy; social acceptability; transient resident; willingness to accept; 1350515
    JEL: D62 D82 Q48 Q51 Q58
    Date: 2020–06–26
  10. By: Salaheddine Soummane (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); F. Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMACLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energypricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy.
    Keywords: Economic diversification,General equilibrium,Oil-exporting country,Climate policy
    Date: 2022
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The authorities responded quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 crisis and the economy is recovering. COVID-19 cases are well below the 2020 peak and vaccination is progressing. The exit from the remaining COVID-related policy support needs to be carefully managed and the Vision 2030 reform agenda continued.
    Keywords: Policy support measure; GDP estimate; policy support; totaling SDR; financial asset; employment support program; Oil; COVID-19; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Income; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific
    Date: 2021–07–07
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This report summarizes key findings and recommendations from a remote technical assistance (TA) assignment performed by a short-term expert (STX), Mr. Djamel Bouhabel, from January 17 to February 4, 2021, to the General Customs Authority of Iraq (GCA). The main objective of the TA was to advise GCA on the development and effective application of customs assessment processes based on international standards and best practices.
    Keywords: Customs valuation audit process; World Bank staff; clearance audit; preferential rule; GCA staff; import goods classification; customs import declaration; Valuation, origin and classification; Tax administration core functions; Imports; Customs procedures; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
    Date: 2021–07–19
  13. By: Yassine Boussenna (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-); Ouail El Kharraz (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-)
    Abstract: The main objective of this study was to verify the moderating role of Information Technology on the relationship between KM implementation and organizational performance in a university context through Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of teacher-researchers, using a hypothetical-deductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained using Hierarchical regression prove the moderating and positive role of Information technology on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the KM and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a change in the correlation rate from R=0.917 to R=0.974 with the addition of leadership as a moderator variable with a degree of impact of 5.7%. This paper presents empirical evidence on the importance of the organizational, technical, and human factors on knowledge management implementation and enhancing performance.
    Keywords: organizational performance,Information Technology,knowledge management
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Khouiled, Brahim; Sellami, Ahmed; Saheb, Oualid
    Abstract: This paper answers the problem of the existence of an inflation rate that stimulates economic growth in Algeria during the period 2000:1-2018:2. We use the TAR model with the brutal transition. The results showed that the rate of inflation stimulating economic growth in Algeria is between 1.688-4.08% annually, a threshold close to that of industrial countries.
    Keywords: Inflation; Economic Growth; Threshold Models; تضخم ; نمو اقتصادي ; نماذج العتبة
    JEL: E31 O49
    Date: 2019–12–25

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