nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒06‒21
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Making of a Lost Generation: Child Labor among Syrian Refugees in Turkey By Meltem Dayioglu; Murat Guray Kirdar; Ismet Koc
  2. The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Case of Turkey By Orhan Gokmen
  3. The Behavioural Mechanisms of Voluntary Cooperation in WEIRD and Non-WEIRD Societies By Till O. Weber; Benjamin Beranek; Simon Gaechter; Fatima Lambarraa-Lehnhardt; Jonathan F. Schulz
  4. Income shocks, bride price and child marriage in Turkey By Isabelle Chort; Rozenn Hotte; Karine Marazyan
  5. Analysis of systematic risk around firm-specific news in an emerging market using high frequency data By Shabir A A Saleem; Peter N Smith; Abdullah Yalaman
  6. Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey By Kerim Eser Af\c{s}ar; Mehmet \"Ozyi\~git; Yusuf Y\"uksel; \"Umit Ak{\i}nc{\i}
  7. Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions By Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi; Roberto Nisticò
  8. DGE model for assessing macro-fiscal vulnerabilities in Algeria By Emmanuel Pinto Moreira; Baris Alpaslan

  1. By: Meltem Dayioglu (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ismet Koc (Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University)
    Abstract: Millions of children are forcibly displaced around the world, making child labor a serious risk. However, little is known about this topic due to the difficulty of finding representative datasets for this population and information on child labor. In this study, we use a representative dataset on Syrian refugees in Turkey, the largest refugee group in any single country, to examine the incidence of child labor and its determinants. The incidence of paid work is remarkably high among boys: 17.4% of 12-14 year-olds and 45.1% of 15-17 year-olds are in paid employment. We find that paid work is positively associated with poverty, proficiency in Turkish, living in an industrialized region in Turkey, originating from rural areas in Syria and living in a household with a young, female, or less-educated head. Family composition matters more for girls’ employment than boys’. Boys’ (girls’) employment increases if their father (mother) is alive – suggesting network effects. Being older at arrival is highly associated with child labor, indicating that difficulty with school integration drives children into employment.
    Keywords: child labor; forced displacement; Syrian refugees; paid work; migrants; Turkey.
    JEL: J13 J15 J61 O15 O53
    Date: 2021–06
  2. By: Orhan Gokmen
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between net FDI inflows and real GDP for Turkey from 1970 to 2019. Although conventional economic growth theories and most empirical research suggest that there is a bi-directional positive effect between these macro variables, the results indicate that there is a uni-directional significant short-run positive effect of real GDP on net FDI inflows to Turkey by employing the Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality, Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition. Also, there is no long-run effect has been found. The findings recommend Turkish authorities optimally benefit from the potential positive effect of net incoming FDI on the real GDP by allocating it for the productive sectoral establishments while effectively maintaining the country's real economic growth to attract further FDI inflows.
    Date: 2021–06
  3. By: Till O. Weber (University of Newcastle); Benjamin Beranek (Missouri State University); Simon Gaechter (University of Nottingham); Fatima Lambarraa-Lehnhardt (IZA, CESifo, ZALF, University of Goettingen); Jonathan F. Schulz (George Mason University)
    Abstract: We provide a framework to uncover behavioural mechanisms driving potential cross-societal differences in voluntary cooperation. We deploy our framework in one-shot public goods experiments in the US and the UK, and in Morocco and Turkey. We find that cooperation is higher in the US and UK than in Morocco and Turkey. Our framework shows that this result is driven mostly by differences in beliefs rather than in cooperative preferences, or peer punishment, which are both similar in the four subject pools. Our results highlight the central role of beliefs in explaining differences in voluntary cooperation within and across societies.
    Keywords: voluntary cooperation, experiments, public goods, cross-societal differences, behavioural framework
    Date: 2021–03
  4. By: Isabelle Chort (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Rozenn Hotte; Karine Marazyan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of income shocks and bride price on early marriage in Turkey. Weather shocks provide an exogenous source of variation of household income through agricultural production. A decrease in rainfall observed over the 9 months period corresponding to the growing season is found to negatively affect both agricultural production and returns for the majority of crops and vegetables. Data on weather shocks are merged with individual and household level data from the Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys 1998 to 2013. The practice of bride-price, still vivid in many regions of the country, may provide incentives for parents to marry their daughter earlier, when faced with a negative income shock. In addition, marriages precipitated by negative income shocks may present specific features (endogamy, age and education difference between spouses). To study the role of payments to the bride's parents, we interact our measure of shocks with a province-level indicator of a high prevalence of bride-price. We find that girls living in provinces with a high practice of bride-price and exposed to a negative income shocks when aged 12-14 (resp. 12-17) have a 28% (resp. 20%) higher probability to be married before the age of 15 (resp. 18). Such women are also more likely to give birth to their first child before 18 and for those who married religiously first, the civil ceremony is delayed by 2 months on average. Our results suggest that girl marriage still participates to household strategies aimed at mitigating negative income shocks in contemporary Turkey.
    Keywords: Child marriage,Income shocks,Bride price,Weather shocks,Turkey
    Date: 2021–06–11
  5. By: Shabir A A Saleem; Peter N Smith; Abdullah Yalaman
    Abstract: We investigate whether the daily betas of individual stocks vary with the release of firm-specific news in an emerging market. Using intraday prices of all stocks traded on the Borsa Istanbul, Turkey over the period 2005-2013, we find evidence that average market betas increase significantly from two weeks before the earnings announcement day, and then revert to their average levels two weeks after the announcement. The increase in betas is greater for larger, positive surprise earnings announcements than for smaller, negative news. The results are consistent with features of the learning model of Patton and Verardo (2012) but not with a number of their empirical results.
    Keywords: Realized Beta, Firm-specific News, Earnings Announcements, Emerging Market
    JEL: C22 G10 G11 G33
    Date: 2021–03
  6. By: Kerim Eser Af\c{s}ar; Mehmet \"Ozyi\~git; Yusuf Y\"uksel; \"Umit Ak{\i}nc{\i}
    Abstract: The Turkish economy between 2002-2019 period has been investigated within the econophysical approach. From the individual income data obtained from the Household Budget Survey, the Gompertz-Pareto distribution for each year and Goodwin cycle for the mentioned period have been obtained. For this period, in which thirteen elections were held under the single-party rule, it has been observed that the income distribution fits well with the Gompertz-Pareto distribution which shows the two-class structure of the Turkish economy. The variation of the threshold value $x_t$ (which separates these two classes) as well as Pareto coefficient have been obtained. Besides, Goodwin cycle has been observed within this period, centered at $(u,v)\cong (66.30,83.40)$ and a period of $T=18.30$ years. It has been concluded that these observations are consistent with the economic and social events experienced in the mentioned period.
    Date: 2021–06
  7. By: Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi (School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University); Roberto Nisticò (Università di Napoli Federico II, CSEF and IZA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of economic sanctions on employment. We exploit the imposition of a series of unexpected and unprecedented international economic sanctions on Iran in 2012 and estimate the short-run effects of the change in import exposure on manufacturing employment at the industry level. Our estimates indicate that the sanctions led to an overall decline in manufacturing employment growth rate by 16.4 percentage points. Yet, we uncover significant asymmetric effects across industries with different ex-ante import shares. Interestingly, the effects are mostly driven by labor-intensive industries and industries that heavily depend on imported inputs. This suggests that the overall negative impact of the sanctions on employment might have been largely due to the decline in productivity experienced by industries with a high propensity to import inputs from abroad.
    Keywords: Trade Shock, Economic Sanctions, Employment.
    JEL: F16 F51 J21
    Date: 2021–06–08
  8. By: Emmanuel Pinto Moreira; Baris Alpaslan
    Abstract: In this paper, we present a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model to address the macro-fiscal vulnerabilities and the effects of fiscal policy on growth and employment in Algeria. We first discuss a baseline scenario throughout the projection period, 2021-2040 and then conduct several experiments; an increase in the efficiency of public spending on infrastructure investment, a gradual reduction in the share of noninterest government spending in GDP, the same gradual reduction in spending with a permanent increase in the share of investment in infrastructure in total noninterest government expenditure, and a composite fiscal reform program, respectively. The results show that with a well-designed fiscal program, there may be no trade-off between fiscal consolidation and economic growth.
    Keywords: DGE model, macro-fiscal vulnerabilities, fiscal policy, Algeria
    JEL: C68 E62 O23
    Date: 2021–03

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