nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒05‒03
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Managing Crisis within International Joint Ventures: Insights from the case of Délice-Danone during the Arab Springin Tunisia By Fadia Bahri Korbi; Karim Ben Slimane; Dora Triki
  2. The Importance of External Shocks and Global Monetary Conditions for A Small-Open Economy By Gulnihal Tuzun
  3. An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan By Caria, Stefano; Gordon, Grant; Kasy, Maximilian; Quinn, Simon; Shami, Soha; Teytelboym, Alexander
  4. Modeling the impact of Coronavirus uncertainty on bank system vulnerability and monetary policy conduct By Ben salem, salha; slama, ines
  5. Estimating Poverty for Refugees in Data-scarce Contexts: An Application of Cross-Survey Imputation By Hai-Anh Dang; Paolo Verme
  6. Modeling and simulation of patient flow at the emergency services : Case of Al-Zahraa Hospital University Medical Center in Lebanon By Ibrahim Cheaitou; Abdessamad Ait El Cadi; Abdelghani Bekrar; David Duvivier; Anwar Sahili
  7. The Double Dividend of a Joint Tariff and VAT Reform: Evidence from Iran By Yousefi, Kowsar; Vesal, Mohammad
  8. Prediction of Food Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms of Multilayer Perceptron and ANFIS By Saeed Nosratabadi; Sina Ardabili; Zoltan Lakner; Csaba Mako; Amir Mosavi
  9. The evolving tourism industry: From the era of operators to the era of tourism aggregators. By Younes Bennane; Sanaa Haouata
  11. Inequidades de ingresos: Diagnostico y desafíos teóricos By Zakaria Chtouki

  1. By: Fadia Bahri Korbi (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Karim Ben Slimane (ISC Paris - Institut Supérieur du Commerce de Paris); Dora Triki (ESCE Paris)
    Date: 2019–06–26
  2. By: Gulnihal Tuzun
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to assess how do the domestic and foreign shocks affect the fundamental macroeconomic variables of a small-open economy, and in particular Turkey. The domestic supply, demand and monetary policy shocks as well as their global counterparts are identified by employing a Bayesian structural VAR model with sign and zero restrictions. After a US monetary tightening shock, the results demonstrate an appreciation of US Dollar against Turkish lira, a rise in the consumer price level in the Turkish economy, a contractionary monetary policy shock accompanied by a fall in the real output level. This reaction is a strong evidence of the existence of a global interest rate contagion present in the international macroeconomics literature.
    Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Sign and zero restrictions, Shock identification, Monetary policy
    JEL: C11 C32 E52 F41
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Caria, Stefano (University of Warwick and CAGE); Gordon, Grant (International Rescue Committee); Kasy, Maximilian (University of Oxford); Quinn, Simon (University of Oxford); Shami, Soha (Danish Refugee Council); Teytelboym, Alexander (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We introduce an adaptive targeted treatment assignment methodology for field experiments. Our Tempered Thompson Algorithm balances the goals of maximizing the precision of treatment effect estimates and maximizing the welfare of experimental participants. A hierarchical Bayesian model allows us to adaptively target treatments. We implement our methodology in Jordan, testing policies to help Syrian refugees and local jobseekers to find work. The immediate employment impacts of a small cash grant, information and psychological support are small, but targeting raises employment by 1 percentage-point (20%). After four months, cash has a sizable effect on employment and earnings of Syrians.
    Keywords: JEL Classification: C93, J6, O15
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Ben salem, salha; slama, ines
    Abstract: The uncertainty of COVID-19 seriously disrupts the world through various macroeconomic and financial channels. For Tunisia, the Pandemic came when the economy was confronting persevering macroeconomic imbalances, regardless of new progress with policy and reform implementation. This context hits the Tunisian economy, especially as it has not yet exited from the negative effect of the 2011 revolution. This paper aims to analyze how the coronavirus uncertainty shock affects the monetary policy's conduct and the banking system's vulnerability in Tunisia. Using the structural VAR model, we find that the adaptation of an easing credit' policy by the bank can attenuate the uncertainty of COVID-19 uncertainty in a short period but it causes negative consequences on the Tunisian economy in a subsequent period. The empirical results show also that uncertainty decreases the ability of the central bank to improve economic activity and control inflation.
    Keywords: COVID-19 uncertainty, bank vulnerability, monetary policy conduct, economic implication
    JEL: E4 E6 G1
    Date: 2021–04
  5. By: Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank); Paolo Verme (World Bank)
    Abstract: The increasing growth of forced displacement worldwide has brought more attention to measuring poverty among refugee populations. However, refugee data remain scarce, particularly regarding income or consumption. We offer a first attempt to measure poverty among refugees using cross-survey imputation and administrative and survey data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Employing a small number of predictors currently available in the UNHCR registration system, the proposed methodology offers out-of-sample predicted poverty rates that are not statistically different from the actual poverty rates. These estimates are robust to different poverty lines, perform well according to targeting indicators, and are more accurate than those based on asset indexes or proxy means tests. They can also be obtained with relatively small samples. We also show that it is feasible to provide poverty estimates for one geographical region based on the existing data from another similar region.
    Keywords: poverty imputation, Syrian refugees, household survey, missing data, Jordan
    JEL: C15 I32 J15 J61 O15
    Date: 2021–04
  6. By: Ibrahim Cheaitou (LAMIH - Laboratoire d'Automatique, de Mécanique et d'Informatique industrielles et Humaines - UMR 8201 - UVHC - Université de Valenciennes et du Hainaut-Cambrésis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France); Abdessamad Ait El Cadi (LAMIH - Laboratoire d'Automatique, de Mécanique et d'Informatique industrielles et Humaines - UMR 8201 - UVHC - Université de Valenciennes et du Hainaut-Cambrésis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France); Abdelghani Bekrar (LAMIH - Laboratoire d'Automatique, de Mécanique et d'Informatique industrielles et Humaines - UMR 8201 - UVHC - Université de Valenciennes et du Hainaut-Cambrésis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France); David Duvivier (LAMIH - Laboratoire d'Automatique, de Mécanique et d'Informatique industrielles et Humaines - UMR 8201 - UVHC - Université de Valenciennes et du Hainaut-Cambrésis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France); Anwar Sahili (ZHUMC - Al-Zahraa Hospital University Medical Center)
    Abstract: Recently, the emergency departments of hospitals are experiencing an exponential growth of their activities. As a consequence, we list the impact of their loads on the length of the waiting time (for patients) and on the optimal use of resources for the treatment of vital emergencies. This requires a reflection on the management of patient flow (or journey) in arriving to the emergency services. Given the heterogeneity of emergency levels and the diversity of expectations of patients, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics governing the flow of patients. In this perspective, we are interested in this paper in the modeling and simulation of the flow of patients in the emergency department (ED) at Al-Zahraa Hospital University Medical Center in Beirut (Lebanon). Our goal is, in fact, to identify the factors that have significant impact on the length of stay spent by the patients in the ED. In order to improve the quality of the patient supervision, our target is to minimize the total length of stay and waiting times, we use two scenarios for the resources scheduling in the ED: the first one was used before March 2018, and the second is the actual schedule. In our methodology, we build a simulation model based on the collected data, then the simulation model is validated by the head of Emergency Department and by the experts. Therefore, we propose many scenarios applied in simulations instances realized using Rockwell ARENA simulator to evaluate the impact of these proposals to give the ED supervisors many recommendations that improve the issues identified during the modeling phase.
    Keywords: Simulation,Modeling,Patient Flow,Key Performance Indicators,Emergency Department,Resource Scheduling
    Date: 2020–10–26
  7. By: Yousefi, Kowsar; Vesal, Mohammad
    Abstract: Abstract A rich theoretical literature discusses whether replacing tariffs with value added tax (VAT) improves efficiency. We provide empirical evidence on a novel complementarity between VAT and trade taxes. Downstream domestic firms require VAT receipts from importers to claim purchases VAT increasing incentives for honest reporting of imports. We use the trade gap, the difference between mirror and domestic trade reports in Iran at 6-digit HS disaggregation, to measure this complementarity. Iran introduced VAT in 2008 and increased its rate from 3 to 9 percent since then. Difference-in-differences estimations show that a 1 percentage point increase in the VAT rate reduces the trade gap by 6.7 percent. Consistent with the compliance mechanisms of VAT, we observe a smaller effect for the consumer products that have a shorter value chain. Our results suggest that replacing tariffs with VAT results in a double dividend. Tax revenue could increase due to better tariff compliance and a broader VAT base.
    Keywords: Value Added Tax; Trade Liberalization; Tariffs; Chains Effect; Tax Compliance;
    JEL: F13 F14 H25
    Date: 2021–04–16
  8. By: Saeed Nosratabadi; Sina Ardabili; Zoltan Lakner; Csaba Mako; Amir Mosavi
    Abstract: Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.
    Date: 2021–04
  9. By: Younes Bennane (KLMSU - Kalmyk State University); Sanaa Haouata (UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca])
    Abstract: Le tourisme étant une industrie (Sid Ahmed, 1987), revêt une importance de plus en plus capitale pour le développement des territoires et de leurs économies (Leroux&Pupion, 2014). Ce constatest appuyé par les chiffres relevés dans le rapport de l'OMT (2017), où les recettes du tourisme international ont atteint le chiffre de 1340 milliards de dollars avec une augmentation de 4,9% en comparaison avec l'année 2016, 10% du PIB mondial est réalisé par le secteur touristique, ce dernier permet la création de 1/10 des emplois par rapport aux autres secteurs économiques. Dans cette perspective, le tourisme représente un secteur prometteur dont la concurrence est devenuefarouche (Balfet&al., 2012), notamment avec l'évolution de nouvelles formes d'activités touristiques, à l'instar de la concurrence directe que subissent les agences de voyages traditionnelles au regard de l'apparition de nouveaux opérateurs tels que le ‘'e-tourisme'' et le ‘'m-tourisme'' (Balfet&al., 2012 ; Leroux &Pupion, 2014), voire l'apparition des agrégateurs (Observatoiredu Tourisme Marocain, 2014). A partir des années 90, le secteur du tourisme a connu une évolution considérable en matière de recours aux TIC. D'ailleurs ces dernières jouent un rôle central dans le développement du tourisme d'aujourd'hui (Gallouj& Leroux, 2011). Au regard de cette évolution, nous envisageons à travers ce papier, faire une analyse de la revue de littérature en vue d'illustrer les différentes étapes qu'a traversé l'activité touristique, tout en mettant en exergue l'évolution des principaux opérateurs touristiques, notamment les nouveaux : le e-tourisme, le m-tourisme ainsi que les agrégateurs, afin d'analyser leur impact sur le secteur. Sur le plan empirique, nous souhaitons nous approcher de plus près des entreprises ayant choisi le e-tourisme comme plateforme pour promouvoir et commercialiser des produits touristiques. Pour ce faire, nous menons par le biais d'une analyse qualitative du contenu, une étude comparative des trois entreprises ayant une part de marché importante dans le ‘'e-tourisme'' à savoir : Booking, Airbnb et Expedia.
    Keywords: Tourisme,e-tourisme,m-tourisme,innovation,TIC,agrégateurs de tourisme,opérateurs de tourisme
    Date: 2019–04–24
  10. By: Ahmed Boudak (LGS - Laboratoire Génie des Systèmes - ENSA - École nationale des sciences appliquées [Kenitra]); Abdelmajid Elouadi (LGS - Laboratoire Génie des Systèmes - ENSA - École nationale des sciences appliquées [Kenitra])
    Abstract: Cet article présente une approche de modélisation organisationnelle et managériale d'un système hospitalier complexe intégrant à la fois des principes de modélisation système, de l'hôpital 4.0 et des mécanismes d'analyse et de traitement des données. Face à une panoplie de changements dans l'environnement du système hospitalier et de défis à relever, l'hôpital public serait dans l'obligation de faire évoluer son modèle d'organisation et de gouvernance pour répondre aux nouveaux besoins de sa clientèle/patientèle et être à l'écoute de son écosystème. C'est dans cette perspective que s'inscrit notre recherche qui vise de répondre à la question suivante : « Quel modèle d'organisation pour l'hôpital public marocain du futur face à ces changements évolutifs ? ». Cette recherche qui se veut une étude expérimentale au sein d'un hôpital universitaire marocain ambitionne l'expérimentation d'un modèle inspiré du modèle d'organisation du quatrième âge industriel qu'est le Modèle TESLA. Enfin, nous voulons à travers le présent article traiter, dans un premier temps, le contexte et les justificatifs de l'étude et dans une seconde partie, nous allons faire le point sur la problématique, l'approche méthodologique adoptée et le modèle théorique de notre présente étude.
    Keywords: Hôpital 4.0,Modélisation système,modèle organisationnel et managérial,approche et principes,formalisation,outil support
    Date: 2020–10–26
  11. By: Zakaria Chtouki (​Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modeling - Université Mohammed V de Rabat)
    Abstract: In this paper, we have tried to analyze the different structures of income inequality, the ways of redistributing wealth and the aspects of financial injustice on a global and national scale. Starting from the literature review, our analysis is in two parts. As a first step, a theoretical approach that deals with the distinction between wage income inequalities in relation to income generated from financial capitalization and a philosophical and political approach to laws regulating the redistribution of wealth. And secondly, an empirical presentation diagnosing the situation of inequalities in the world compared to the current state, also in the Moroccan context in order to detect the link between the economic efficiency of the country and the social well-being of its people. citizens, especially the poorest among other social classes.
    Keywords: equity,justice,Morocco,world,Income inequality,redistribution
    Date: 2020–04–01

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