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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal (Adana Alpaslan Türkeş Science and Technology University); Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the gender wage gap in three neglected MENA countries: Egypt (1980-2018), Jordan (2010-2016), and Turkey (2014-21017). We use repeated cross-sections and propensity score matching as the best way to control for observed heterogeneity. We find a much more sizeable gap than in advanced economies, but with a downward trend similar to advanced economies, reaching in Jordan a low of -0.18. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, propensity score matching, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt |
| JEL: | C31 J16 J31 K38 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13934&r=all |
| By: | Walid Merouani (Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée pour le Développement); Rana Jawad (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | Political participation by citizens is important to ensure good governance and the accountability of policy makers’ decisions and initiatives. However, this issue may be especially difficult in contexts of high informal labour, defined in this paper as workers not enrolled in the formal social security system. This paper examines the topic of political participation among young workers in five Arab countries: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. It compares both formal and informal sector workers using data from the European Union’s 2018 SAHWA survey (http://www.sahwa.eu/). Amongst other variables, the paper tests the impact of informality on political participation. It uses four proxies for political participation to compare formal and informal workers in the case study countries: (1) affiliation to a political party or movement; (2) frequency of participation in political meetings/campaigns or participation in politics via the Internet; (3) frequency of speaking about politics and economic issues with peers; (4) voting in elections (both general and local). By controlling for demographic and socio-economic variables, the analysis uses discrete choice model to test the impact of this informality on the four proxies of political participation. An important contribution of this paper is to incorporate job satisfaction into the analysis. The results indicate that informal workers are less likely to participate in key political behaviours such as belonging to political parties, participating in political meetings and speaking about politics and voting with peers. The paper proposes some key policy implications arising from the analysis |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1434&r=all |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (Manchester Metropolitan University); Oznur Ozdamar (Izmir University Bakircay) |
| Abstract: | The civil war in Syria, which started in March of 2011, has led to a massive influx of forced migration, especially from the Northern Syria to the neighbouring countries. The unexpected movement of refugees has created large exogenous labour supply shocks with potential significant effects on the labour and living standard outcomes of natives in the host countries. While earlier studies have explored the impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on the natives’ labour outcomes little is known about its impact in Egypt. Furthermore, the literature does not provide evidence about the impact of the Syrian refugee inflows on the labour outcomes of migrants who have been relocated in the host countries before the refugee crisis. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) framework this study explores the impact of Syrian refugees on labour outcomes in Egypt, Jordan and Turkey. Furthermore, we implement an instrumental variables (IV) approach within the DID framework, where we instrument the Syrian population at the area-governorate level of the host country with variables that incorporate physical travel distances. The results are mixed and vary, not only across the labour outcomes explored, but also across demographic and socio-economic groups, as females and low educated are mostly affected by the refugee crisis negatively. However, the effects, positive or negative, are rather negligible. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1435&r=all |
| By: | Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University, Turkey); Abdullah Altun (Gebze Technical University, Turkey); Pinar Tat (Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Regarding the dynamics of contemporary world economy, success in a domestic economy cannot be achieved without effective integration policies for goods/services and capital flows. In order to evaluate this proposition, we utilize a large number of openness measures for two periods:1995-2009 and 2005-2014. For the earlier data set, we find that export and export of domestic value added increase total factor productivity growth. These variables are also positively associated with value added growth. Tariff rates which Turkey faces are negatively related to value added growth, which means decreasing competitiveness of Turkish goods and services in the international market. Forward GVC participation leads to increase in value added growth. For export growth, tariff rates faced significantly reduce the growth rate of both export and domestic value added export. For the later data set, all covariates other than tariff rates lose their significances. However, tariff rates Turkey imposes are positively related to both total factor productivity and value added growth. The negative effect of faced tariff rates is also persistent in export growth. Overall, designing and implementing trade policies to effectively integrate into the global value chains is an important task for Turkey. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1447&r=all |
| By: | Dedeoğlu, Saniye. |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on two categories of home-based workers in Turkey; industrial home-based pieceworkers and IT-enabled remote workers, who are commonly referred to in Turkey as “freelancers”. With an aim of exploring the current patterns and issues of these two categories of home-based workers in Turkey, the report presents the situation and working practices of industrial home-based workers and freelance remote workers. A supply-and-demand side analysis is used to analyse the changes in the production networks and in the working relations. Issues such as access to work, working arrangements, working hours, earnings, health and safety and work-life balance are main areas of investigation. The interviews conducted in Istanbul with homeworkers reveal that an analysis of gendered nature of home-based work is necessary to unveil the values attached to piecework and digital remote work and that even social, cultural and economic distinctions between two groups, the lack of job security and decent working conditions as well as low bargaining power have resulted in their increased vulnerabilities in the Turkish labour markets. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995106793102676&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Arab Republic of Egypt’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Macroeconomic performance has remained strong in 2018/19, supported by continued sound policy implementation. The report highlights that monetary policy remains anchored by the medium-term objective of bringing inflation to single digits. Core inflation appears to be well contained, however the central bank should remain cautious until disinflation is firmly entrenched. Exchange rate flexibility remains essential to improve resilience to shocks and preserve competitiveness. The outlook remains favorable and provides an opportune juncture to further advance structural reforms to support more inclusive private-sector led growth and job creation. The authorities have launched important reforms of competition policy, public procurement, industrial land allocation, and state-owned enterprises, and sustained implementation will be essential to ensure that statutory changes achieve meaningful results in the business climate. Sustained efforts are needed to advance reforms in competition, industrial land allocation, and governance of state-owned enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;External debt;Inflation;Energy subsidies;Structural reforms;ISCR,CR,authorities' economic reform program,core inflation,private sector,authority,Egypt-IMF Executive Board |
| Date: | 2019–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/311&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The Moroccan authorities are committed to sustaining sound policies. The government’s economic program remains in line with key reforms agreed under the PLL arrangement, including to further reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, while strengthening the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility initiated in 2018 is expected to enhance the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and preserve its external competitiveness. The current favorable economic environment remains supportive to continue this reform in a carefully sequenced and well-communicated manner. The report recommends that continued reforms are needed to raise potential growth and reduce high unemployment levels, especially among the youth, increase female labor participation, and reduce regional disparities. Reforms of education, governance, the labor market, and the business environment would help support more private sector-led growth and job creation. |
| Keywords: | External debt;Public debt;External position;Financial regulation and supervision;Loans;ISCR,CR,policy,The Article IV consultation discussion,authority,current account,reform |
| Date: | 2019–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/317&r=all |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (Manchester Metropolitan University); Oznur Ozdamar (Izmir University Bakircay); Burcu Özdas (Adnan Menderes University) |
| Abstract: | Unemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey. We employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to take into account the simultaneous relations among the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). Additionally, we propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) within the SEM framework to infer for causality. For the empirical analysis we use the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) over the period 2007-2015. Our findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Our results indicate a large heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits, as males, low educated individuals and those belonging in the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards. The majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labour outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD within the SEM framework to explore simultaneously the impact of unemployment insurance on heath and living standards. Moreover, this framework can be applied in future research studies to infer causality and explore the impact of policies and reforms. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1448&r=all |
| By: | Hüseyin Ikizler (Presidency of Strategy and Budget); Emre Yüksel (Presidency of Strategy and Budget); Hüsniye Burçin Ikizler (Ministry of Health) |
| Abstract: | As of December 2018, Turkey is home to 3.6 million Syrian refugees under temporary protection status. The negative externalities of Syrian refugees may affect the native-born population's needs, precisely healthcare needs. The possible increase in healthcare demand due to population increase may escalate unmet healthcare needs (UHCN). The study contributes to the literature by analyzing refugees' effect on the native-born population's unmet healthcare needs. Our central hypothesis is that mass refugee influx increases the ratio of the UHCN arising mainly from systemic reasons, especially at the beginning of the migration crisis. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the UHCN of the native-born population has increased due to the mass refugee influx. We estimate the magnitude of this increase by nearly 6.3% at the beginning of the refugee crisis. The impact diminishes as the imbalance of demand and supply of healthcare services diminishes. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1436&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper on Turkey assesses the role of structural reforms in enhancing productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies and discusses results that are relevant for Turkey. The paper investigates the role of structural reforms in boosting productivity growth and describes the stochastic frontier set-up for analyzing factors that affect output through technical efficiency; and subsequently presents empirical results. It also simulates productivity gains from closing the structural reform gaps between Turkey and its benchmark. Structural reforms to improve hiring and firing regulations, the business and regulatory environment, and skills are found to have the largest estimated long-term productivity gains for Turkey. In order to bolster Turkey’s sustainable medium-term growth prospects, structural reforms should be implemented sooner rather than later, and any possible negative reform impacts in the short run could be limited by a reform sequencing and reform complementarities. |
| Keywords: | Structural reforms;Commodity markets;Labor market flexibility;Competition;Total factor productivity;ISCR,CR,center,pay-productivity alignment,production function |
| Date: | 2019–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/396&r=all |
| By: | Ali Souag (University of Mascara Algeria) |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1444&r=all |
| By: | Thibault Lemaire (Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The relative price Phillips curve hypothesis gives a better account of the dynamics of the Egyptian economy than the price Phillips curve. Using standard aggregate macroeconomic quarterly data for the Egyptian economy from 2003q1 to 2019q1 to obtain Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Method of Moments estimates for four versions of the Phillips curve, this article provides evidence that the exchange rate regime affects the relation between prices and unemployment in emerging economies: while an economic boom leads to lower unemployment and higher inflation in a fixed exchange rate regime, the nominal appreciation of the currency negatively affects imported goods prices and flattens the price Phillips curve in a flexible exchange rate regime. The results also suggest a broken link between inflation and unemployment during the Egyptian Revolution and the subsequent period, raising questions on macroeconomic management in times of political turmoil. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1453&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financing conditions. The lira also recovered as market pressures abated. Import compression and a strong tourism season have contributed to a remarkable current account adjustment. Inflation has fallen sharply, and the central bank cut policy rates by 1000 basis points since July 2019. Inflation peaked at around 25 percent—five times the target—in October 2018 due, in large part, to high exchange rate passthrough and rising inflation expectations. However, strong base effects, relative lira stability, and a negative output gap have since contributed to a steep inflation decline, although inflation expectations remain well above target. State-owned banks are supporting rapid credit growth. While private banks have cut back on their lending, state-owned banks have engaged in a major credit expansion which picked up pace in early-2019. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;State-owned banks;Financial statements;Banking;National accounts;ISCR,CR,inflation expectation,authority,IMF staff calculation |
| Date: | 2019–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/395&r=all |
| By: | Fateh Belaid (Lille Catholic University); Christophe Rault (University of Orléans (France)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the key factors affecting household energy expenditure in Egypt. Based upon the latest 2015 Egyptian HIECS Survey, we develop a quantile regression model with an innovative variable selection approach via Adaptive Lasso Regularization technique to untangle the spectrum of household energy expenditure. Unsurprisingly, income, age, household size, housing size, and employment status are salient predictors for energy expenditure. Housing characteristics have a moderate impact, while socio-economic attributes have a much larger one. The largest variations in household energy expenditures in Egypt are mainly due to variations in income, household size, and housing type. Our findings document substantial differences in household energy expenditure, originating from the asymmetric tails of the energy expenditure distribution. This outcome highlights the added value of implementing quantile regression methods. Our empirical results have various interesting policy implications regarding residential energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction in Egypt |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1446&r=all |
| By: | Akyol, Pelin (Bilkent University); Mocan, Naci (Louisiana State University) |
| Abstract: | At least one of every five marriages is consanguineous (between couples who are second cousins or closer) in the Middle East and North Africa, and the rate is higher than 50 percent in some parts of the world. Consanguineous marriage generates serious health problems for the offspring and constitutes an economic problem with its associated medical costs and the impact on human capital. The prevalence of consanguineous marriage and the resultant kinship networks can shape various dimensions of the society ranging from institutional structure to attitudes such as trust, individualism, and nepotism. Using data from Turkey and leveraging an education reform which increased mandatory schooling by three years, we find that the reform made women less likely to find consanguineous marriage as an acceptable practice, and that the reform reduced women's propensity to marry a first cousin or a blood relative. Exposure to the reform altered women's preferences in favor of personal autonomy. Women who are exposed to the reform are more likely to have met their husbands outside of family networks, they are less likely to get forced into marriage against their consent, and they are less likely to agree that only a son can ensure the continuation of the family blood line. These results indicate that educational attainment can alter behaviors and attitudes which may be rooted in culture. |
| Keywords: | education, cousin marriage, culture, blood marriage, women's empowerment |
| JEL: | I18 I26 I21 J1 Z1 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13985&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Tunisia’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The IMF financing will support the authorities’ emergency measures to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its human, social, and economic toll amid unprecedented uncertainty. These measures involve raising health spending, strengthening social safety nets, and supporting small- and medium-sized firms hit by the crisis. The RFI is the most appropriate instrument to help address the urgent balance of payments need considering that too little time would have been left before the Extended Fund Facility expiration on May 19 to agree on the significant revisions to program objectives required in response to the Covid-19 shock. The IMF financing will also ensure an adequate level of international reserves and catalyze additional donor financing. The authorities are committed to maintaining prudent economic policies and resuming fiscal consolidation once the crisis abates to ensure macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of Tunisia’s debt. Macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability hinge on strong policy and reform implementation. The authorities are committed to resuming fiscal consolidation once the crisis abates. |
| Keywords: | External debt;Public debt;Credit;Loans;Imports;ISCR,CR,emergency assistance loan,government guarantee line,pandemic |
| Date: | 2020–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2020/103&r=all |
| By: | Reham Rizk (Universities of Canada in Egypt (UCE)) |
| Abstract: | There are natural differences in children’s initial endowments and cognitive abilities. How parents respond to these differences, have significant implications on the children’s future chances and prospects. In this paper, we assess whether parents in Egypt compensate for or reinforce the endowment differences among their children, using test scores as an observable proxy for initial endowments and participation in private tutoring as a measure of schooling investment. The paper makes use of a unique longitudinal dataset with information on schooling to provide evidence on the effect of children’s cognitive ability differentials on parental investment in the Egyptian context. We find that parents allocate equal financial resources to siblings regardless of the observed endowment differences, which support the neutrality hypothesis. Results also show that maternal education level, child’s age, and sex are significantly associated with a parental differential investment in siblings’ human capital, where families whose mothers are with higher education provide more support to the less endowed sibling. Results also show a robust higher tutoring investment in favor of female children. Parents are more likely to spend more on private tutoring for the younger sibling than the older sibling. There is also no statistically significant regional difference in the likelihood of investment in children schooling |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1451&r=all |
| By: | Nesma Ali (Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf); Mohamed Ali Marouani (IRD and Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the impact of commercial registration of household enterprises on their labor productivity and profits. Based on the 2012 and 2018 rounds of the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Surveys, we employ an instrumental variable strategy and find a positive effect of formal registration on profit and a much higher positive effect on labor productivity. The main channels are higher capital intensity and assets. In addition to the owner’s gender and education level, labor productivity varies mainly with firms’ assets and shared ownership, while profits are mostly determined by the age of the firm and that of its owner. We also find that the positive effect of formality on performance holds for a select category of owners and firms. Finally, our analysis allows us to identify different policy intervention tools for household firms according to their productivity levels and their distance to a threshold of formality fixed costs. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1452&r=all |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the level of inequality of opportunity among children in host communities in Jordan and Lebanon four years after the beginning of the Syrian crisis. The key focus of the comparative analysis is drawn on estimation of the human opportunity index and measurement of the relative contributions of different circumstances to inequality of opportunity for each country. In comparison with Jordan, Lebanon is found to have made significant progress in terms of access to basic services for children in host communities and how these opportunities are distributed between them. Appreciable improvements have been made, in both countries, in school attendance among 6-18 years old largely attributable to higher access to basic education (up to 81%) and lower inequality levels (less than 3%). However, there are areas of persistent and emerging concerns, including access to water and sanitation services mainly in Jordan. When applying the Shapley decomposition method to examine the question of how much does origin of a child contribute to the inequality in access to critical services we find, as expected, that native-refugee divide, added to other socioeconomic and educational family characteristics are key factors affecting child development outcomes in host communities. Accordingly, a more inclusive approach and direct interventions targeted at the less advantaged refugees’ groups in both countries are strongly needed to offer significant potential for improving overall equity in access to core basic housing services and schooling. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1442&r=all |
| By: | Eman Moustafa (General Authority for Investment and Free Zones) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a time series analysis to estimate the impact of corruption on FDI in Egypt during the period 1970-2019 and to address some of the drawbacks of the empirical literature. Unit root and cointegration tests are used to ensure stationarity and long run relationship among variables of interest. The results show a significant positive relationship between FDI and corruption in Egypt. Since corruption is not found to hinder FDI inflows, treating corruption should be based on sound legal procedures that infringe neither on the freedom of FDI nor on the degree of openness of the economy, which are the real stimulants of FDI in Egypt |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1445&r=all |
| By: | Gunes A. Asik (TOBB Economics and Technology University); Efsan Nas Ozen (World Bank Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Gender-based violence is a global phenomenon threatening women irrespective of race, nationality, education or socio-economic status. Evidence shows that domestic violence help calls have been increasing in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic, but the effect on female homicides, this extreme form of violence, is not clear. In this study, we analyze the effects of social distancing measures and in particular the impact of curfews on female homicides in Turkey where domestic violence and female homicides are on the rise, causing public uproar. We find that the probability that a woman is killed by an intimate partner declined by about 57 percent during the period of strict social distancing measures, and by 83.8 percent during curfews in comparison to the same period between 2014 and 2019. We do not find any impact on female homicides by other perpetrator types. We argue that the main reason driving the decline in female homicides is the physical inability of ex-partners to reach victims due to isolation measures, although homicides by current partners have also declined during curfews. Fewer women leaving current partners due to economic hardships and fear of infection as well as increased probability of getting caught -especially during curfews might have also played a role in deterring deadly crimes against women. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1443&r=all |
| By: | Tumen, Semih (TED University); Turan, Belgi (University of Houston) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new evidence on the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We particularly focus on how informal employment affects post-fertility labor supply behavior of mothers. We employ an instrumental variable strategy based on an unused data source for twin births in Turkey—a large developing economy with extensive labor informality. We find that fertility causally affects female labor supply. After the first twin birth, female labor supply declines significantly and the ones who drop out of the labor force are mostly the informally employed women. Following further increases in family size introduced by multiple second and third births (i.e., unanticipated increase from 1 kid to 3 kids, and from 2 kids to 4 kids), formally employed females start dropping out of the labor force and hours of work decline. Wages and job search intensity also decline for females as fertility increases. We also investigate the impact of fertility on labor supply of fathers. Unlike females, males increase their labor supply, which mostly comes from the increase in informal employment—possibly due to a decline in reservation wages. Accordingly, wages decline, hours of work increase, and job search activity shifts from formal to informal search methods for males. Overall, these results suggest that informally employed women tend to quickly drop out of the labor force after giving birth. Fathers, on the other hand, become more likely to accept inferior, low-pay, and informal job offers as fertility goes up. The results are robust to using alternative IV specifications based on sex composition of children. |
| Keywords: | fertility, labor supply, twin births, informal employment, job search, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J13 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13986&r=all |
| By: | Mohamedou Nasser Dine (Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Based on the world input-output database 2016 (WIOD), this study examines the impact of the global value chain (GVCs), via the backward and forward linkages, on labor productivity. Using a spatial econometric approach, it pays particular attention to the spillover effects in productivity across industries through input-output relations. It is shown that a stochastic shock in productivity in one sector significantly transcends and boosts productivity in other sectors through input-output dependencies. Moreover, productivity significantly declines with backward linkages within their sectors. However, productivity increases with forward linkages both within own sectors and across sectors through input-output relations. A sectoral analysis of the GVCs' effects on productivity reveals that manufacturing backward linkages is negatively associated with productivity not only within own sectors but also across manufacturing sectors, whereas productivity in service sectors rises with forward linkages within and across service sectors. This study shows that ignoring the spillovers effects across sectors causes the estimates to be biased |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1430&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper presents Jordan’s 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (ECF). Jordan’s IMF-supported economic reform program is anchored on structural reforms designed to spur growth by creating jobs—especially for women and young people—and reduce poverty. The Jordanian economy has continued facing significant challenges. Macroeconomic stability and external buffers have been preserved, but fiscal vulnerabilities remain. Structural reforms and continued fiscal consolidation efforts are critical to lift growth, reduce unemployment and bring debt on a downward path. Continued support from donors, particularly through concessional loans and budget grants, will be critical to help Jordan cope with humanitarian and economic needs. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak poses significant risks to the program implementation. The authorities have implemented measures to help contain the impact of the pandemic; however, adjustments to the program modalities might be necessary considering the rapidly changing circumstances. Donor support through budget grants and concessional financing will be critical to help Jordan cope with the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and the Syrian refugee crisis and to support program objectives. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Electricity;Arrears;Tariffs;External debt;ISCR,CR,fiscal consolidation effort,emergency outlay,economic reform program,COVID,authority |
| Date: | 2020–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2020/101&r=all |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage differentials between Syrian refugees and native-born and nonrefugee migrant workers using a nationally representative data set extracted from the most recent Jordanian Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS 2016). On average, Syrian refugees earn 37.2% and 74% less hourly wages than natives and non-refugee workers, respectively. The observed wage differentials are not uniform through the wage distribution, and wage gaps are found to be much higher at the top end than at the bottom and the middle of the wage distribution. By applying newly developed decomposition methods, we decompose the distributional wage differentials between different groups into a composition effect, explained by differences in productivity characteristics, and a discrimination effect attributable to unequal returns to those covariates. We find, on average, that discrimination effect contributes more to the wage gaps than composition effect, while through the first part of wage distribution, endowment effect is found to dominate the wage differentials between native-born and Syrian refugee workers. The compositional differences in education between refugees and nonrefugees are found to explain significantly the wage gaps and endowment effects at bottom and middle parts of wage distribution, but when moving up reverse of that is happened by being responsible for a substantial part of discrimination effect. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1441&r=all |
| By: | Nicolò Bird (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the factors that limit transitions to decent work remains a central concern for policymakers, as changes in the world of work considerably affect the availability and distribution of quality jobs. Many of these global issues are mirrored in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This One Pager is a snapshot of a report by the IPC-IG and UNICEF MENARO, which focuses on the role of social protection to promote transitions to work for young people in MENA, especially among vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | labour market policies; youth transition to work; MENA; social protection |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:456&r=all |
| By: | Meltem Dayioglu Tayfur (Middle East Technical University); Muserref Kucukbayrak (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey); Semih Tumen (TED University) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the age-specific minimum wage rule—which sets a lower minimum wage for workers of age 15 than that for workers of age 16 and above—to estimate its effects on youth employment and education in Turkey. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we find that youth minimum wage policy substantially reduced employment probabilities of young males. In terms of magnitudes, the employment probability declined by 2.5-3.1 percentage points at 16-year-old age cut-off. Due to the policy, probability of unemployment increased around 2 percentage points. Our findings also suggest that the policy change increased high school enrollment among young males. We conjecture that the effects of the policy have mostly been driven by the demand-side forces rather than the supply side |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1431&r=all |
| By: | Najah Souissi-Kachouri (Université Tunis El Manar) |
| Abstract: | Our purpose in this article is to study the impact of corruption on the banking performance and on economic growth for a group of MENA countries during the period 2000-2016. Our work is done in two stages. First, we conduct an empirical study on this panel of countries using the static panel method and we show that the effect of corruption on the soundness of the banking sector is not linear and that from a certain threshold, corruption significantly affects the problem of impaired loans in the banking sector of these economies. In a second step, we estimate a model of economic growth. We apply the instrumental variable method for the same panel of countries and we show that the non-performing loans significantly affect the economic growth of these economies. Thus, in highly corrupt economies, the banking sector may be a channel for conveying the effects of corruption on economic growth. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1432&r=all |
| By: | George Naufal (Texas A&M University); Michael Malcolm (West Chester University); Vidya Diwakar (Overseas Development Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using a generalized difference-in-differences approach, we find that children residing in highconflict areas in Iraq are more likely to be vaccinated against tuberculosis and measles than children residing in low-conflict areas. We draw household data on vaccination from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and we identify high-conflict area-years using geolocational conflict data from the Iraq Body Count project. While previous literature generally finds that conflict harms public health, a potential explanation for our result is heavy presence of international aid organizations in conflict areas, a phenomenon which researchers have noted in other contexts. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1438&r=all |
| By: | Riadh Ben Jelili (The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation “DHAMAN”) |
| Abstract: | The scarcity of affordable and opportune trade financing schemes, including export credit guarantee programs, has been part of the cause to the fairly modest trade growth recorded during the last five years. In view of that, it is important further investigating this matter to better understand the nexuses between financing/risk mitigation and trade performance. The existing literature on the effect of export credit insurance programs on export promotion are mainly focused on European countries. On the other hand, very little is known about the influence of export credit guarantees on exports in the Arab region, where the structure of export industries and key trading partners differ significantly from other regions. The purpose of this paper is to bridge this gap in the literature by investigating empirically the significance of the relationship between exports and credit-worthiness of importing countries, using data on Arab merchandise export values. Corroborating evidence for this type of rapport would provide scientific backing to the practicality of specialized export financial institutions to financing exports, mitigating credit risk, and preventing trade finance markets in Arab countries from drying up. A dynamic panel approach is adopted in this paper and the empirical results, based on a balanced panel of 107 Arab partner countries (importer countries) observed between 1997 and 2017, provide a strong and robust validation of the valuable role export credit insurance and guarantee programs can play in promoting merchandise exports in the Arab region |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1450&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. Lebanon’s electricity sector performance is worse than other similar countries in the region. Many businesses must rely on costly private generators. Income inequalities are exacerbated by both the geographical disparities in Electricité du Liban’s (EdL) electricity provision and its tariff structure. The most vulnerable households are the small consumers located in regions with little electricity provision from EdL. A new electricity plan was approved by Cabinet on April 9, 2019 and ratified by Parliament on April 17, 2019. Although it is critical that the plan is decisively implemented, it is also important that it is enhanced further to fully restore EdL’s viability. Introducing well-targeted measures, such as cash transfers, would help protect the most vulnerable households from the tariff increase. As planned in the reform package, consumer tariffs should be indexed on the evolution of input prices to guarantee that it will not be negatively impacted by future developments in fuel or gas prices. |
| Keywords: | Electricity;Tariffs;Personal income;Capital spending;Energy sector;ISCR,CR,Electricité du Liban,tariff structure,deficit,cost |
| Date: | 2019–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/313&r=all |
| By: | Ahmed Elsayed (IZA, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of terrorism on mental health, risky behaviors and human capital accumulation. Using a unique identification strategy by merging geocoded data on terrorism from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) with unique data on young Iraqi individuals born between 1979-1999, the paper shows that individuals exposed to terror attacks in childhood are affected negatively in terms of mental health, and are more likely to engage in risky behavior (e.g., smoking and alcohol consumption). They are also less likely to finish compulsory and secondary education, compared to those who experienced terror at later stages of life. Heterogeneity analyses show that the negative impact on education attainment is more pronounced among boys and children of higher socio-economic background |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1440&r=all |
| By: | Reham Rizk (Universities of Canada in Egypt); Colette Salemi (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | What are the impacts of violent conflict on child health and nutrition? In this paper, we examine conflict events from 2013 to 2018 in Iraq. We match household microdata from the 2018 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey with conflict event data derived from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDLET) to estimate the number of conflicts a child age 0-4 in the MICS data was exposed to during her lifetime. To account for endogenous conflict event locations, we use a two-stage least squares estimation approach in which governorate distance to the Syrian border serves as our instrument. Our results suggest that a 1% increase in conflict frequency results in a significant reduction in height-for-age z-scores of -0.15. We repeat our estimates using alternative conflict data as a robustness check, and the sign and significance of the result holds, though these alternative estimates are smaller in magnitude. Our mechanism analysis suggests that more exposed children were statistically less likely to have been breastfed. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1439&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lebanon highlights that Lebanon’s economic position continues to be very difficult, with very low growth, high public debt and large twin deficits. While financial stability has been maintained, deposit inflows, critical to finance the budget and external deficits, slowed down during the past year, reducing the authorities’ room for manoeuvre. The new government has taken some important policy steps to start the needed policy adjustment, which could help raise confidence among investors and donors. The highest priority is the implementation of a sustainable fiscal adjustment that will bend down the path of the public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio through a combination of revenue and expenditure measures. This needs to be complemented by structural reforms and concessionally financed investment to raise Lebanon’s growth potential and help external adjustment, as well as policies to build further buffers in Lebanon’s financial sector. Structural reforms should prioritize reforming the electricity sector, removing impediments to and lowering the cost of doing business, as well as improving governance and reducing corruption. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Revenue administration;Budget planning and preparation;National accounts;Electricity;ISCR,CR,power sector reform agenda,government,government infrastructure,deficit |
| Date: | 2019–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/312&r=all |
| By: | Emmanuel Cuvillier; Aijaz Ahmad; Arnaud Dornel; Hussam Alzahrani |
| Keywords: | Governance - Governance and the Financial Sector |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33389&r=all |
| By: | Sameh Hallaq (Palestine Polytechnic University); Belal Fallah (Al-Quds University) |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes self-reported data on exposure to conflict, collected in the West Bank, to examine the exposure effect of house raid or arrest of household members on child behavior. We show that exposed children are more likely to engage in violent behaviour. We also show that the exposure effect is independent of gender and that the magnitude of the effect is greater for older children. We propose that altering personality traits, mainly neuroticism and agreeableness, is a channel through which the exposure to house raid or arrests adversely affect children behavior. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1437&r=all |
| By: | Davern, Eamonn. |
| Abstract: | Given the enormous employment challenges in the Sub Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa regions, particularly for youth and vulner¬able groups, the study confirms the potential role employment services can play, including improving the quality of employment in the formal economy as well as promoting the formalization of the informal jobs and enterprises. While public employment services (PES) are at different levels in different countries, they share the weakness in capacity. In order to address these challenges, governments need to invest in resourcing the PES and setting up a clear and conducive legal and policy framework. The institutional framework for PES seem to play a critical role – PES organized as executive agencies tended to be stronger, more effective and efficient than those that were part of the Ministries of Labour with some exceptions. The paper recommends that PES adopt digital technology in service delivery with a balanced offer of physical services to ensure inclusion, explore the use of partnerships with other public organizations, private employment agencies and third sector service providers, and focus on employer services where labour demand is low while adopting a more realistic phased approach to service development. The study was undertaken as part of the ILO/GIZ Youmatch Programme collaboration. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995106792602676&r=all |