nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2021‒01‒04
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Jobs, earnings, and routine-task occupational change in times of revolution: The Tunisian perspective By Mohamed Ali Marouani; Phuong Le Minh; Michelle Marshalian
  2. Investigating the effects of environmental and energy policies in Turkey using an energy-disaggregated CGE model By Dizem Ertac
  3. Arab Republic of Egypt; Request for a 12-Month Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt By International Monetary Fund
  4. Arab Republic of Egypt; Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt By International Monetary Fund
  5. Vulnerable employment of Egyptian, Jordanian, and Tunisian youth: Trends and determinants By Shireen AlAzzawi; Vladimir Hlasny
  6. Saudi Arabia Energy Report By Abeer AlGhamdi
  7. Les effets de la politique budgétaire sur la pauvreté et les inégalités au Maroc By Hélène EHRHART; Houssine IHNACH; Abdenbi EL ANSARY; Abdelfettah HAMADI; Hassan BAKRIM; Stephen D. YOUNGER

  1. By: Mohamed Ali Marouani; Phuong Le Minh; Michelle Marshalian
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the links between wage inequality and the changing nature of jobs in a revolution context. The methodology consists of various decompositions and regressions, including recentred influence function regressions, based on Tunisian labour force surveys from the past 20 years. Tunisia's labour market during the period of investigation is characterized by a decreasing earnings inequality following the fall of education premia, and an asymmetric wage polarization led by the increase of the lowest wages.
    Keywords: routinization, Wage inequality, tasks, Tunisia, recentered influence function, routine employment
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Dizem Ertac
    Abstract: This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.
    Keywords: general equilibrium modeling; energy and environmental policies
    Date: 2020–12–14
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Egypt’s hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved during the three-year arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) now faces a significant disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth is expected to slow in both FY2019/20 and FY2020/21 as tourism has been halted and domestic activity curtailed. The external accounts have come under pressure due to capital outflows and the shock to tourism and remittances. The authorities responded with a broad package to scale up the health system’s capacity and policies to support the people and the economy.
    Keywords: External debt;Public debt;Debt service;Credit;Budget planning and preparation;ISCR,CR,staff's appraisal,safeguards assessment of the Central Bank of Egypt,draft bill,update to the safeguards assessment,government priority
    Date: 2020–08–10
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically disrupted people’s lives, livelihoods, and economic conditions. Growth is expected to slow considerably in both 2019/20 and 2020/21 as tourism is at a standstill and domestic activity is expected to significantly slow. The external accounts are expected to deteriorate from portfolio outflows and the shock to tourism and remittances, resulting in an urgent balance of payments need.
    Keywords: External debt;Public debt;Credit;Debt service;Currencies;ISCR,CR,Egypt,balance of payments gap,debt,debt sustainability assessment,support
    Date: 2020–09–01
  5. By: Shireen AlAzzawi; Vladimir Hlasny
    Abstract: Youths in the Middle East and North Africa face the highest unemployment rates in the world. Those who are employed are pushed to accept informal sector jobs that are insecure, unsafe, and lack non-wage benefits. Precarious employment is pervasive among lower socio-economic groups, leading to the perpetuation of misery across generations. Understanding employment outcomes therefore requires a broad focus encompassing the access to decent work, the evolution in this access over time, and the initial conditions.
    Keywords: vulnerable employment, Informality, youth unemployment, Middle East and North Africa, Regression analysis, worker vulnerability, Vulnerability, Employment
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Abeer AlGhamdi (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s leading oil producers and exporters. It has the second-largest proven crude oil reserves after Venezuela. Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves have made it one of the most significant players in the global oil market. The country also possesses vast reserves of natural gas and, in 2018, had the sixth-largest reserves of natural gas, just below the United States.
    Keywords: Power generation, Petroleum, Natural Gas
    Date: 2020–12–15
  7. By: Hélène EHRHART; Houssine IHNACH; Abdenbi EL ANSARY; Abdelfettah HAMADI; Hassan BAKRIM; Stephen D. YOUNGER
    Abstract: De par son rôle en matière de redistribution de la richesse nationale, la politique budgétaire s’avère l’un des instruments appropriés de l’action de l’Etat pour la réduction de la pauvreté et la lutte contre les inégalités. L’étude analyse les effets de la politique budgétaire sur la pauvreté et les inégalités au Maroc à travers le cadre analytique développé par l’Institut CEQ. Cette analyse permet d’apporter des réponses sur (i) le caractère progressif des impôts et des transferts et leurs aptitudes à réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté, (ii) l’identification des bénéficiaires directs et indirects des dépenses budgétaires et le repérage des catégories sociales qui supportent le fardeau de l’impôt. Globalement, l’étude a permis de relever que tous les déciles sont bénéficiaires nets de la politique budgétaire à l’exception des deux déciles les plus riches où les impôts payés dépassent les bénéfices reçus. Le décile le plus pauvre est le premier bénéficiaire net, profitant, notamment, de la gratuité des prestations publiques au titre de l’éducation et de la santé, et des transferts et subventions sur les produits à la consommation. Ce constat établit le caractère progressif de la politique budgétaire mais des marges de progrès demeurent pour faire face à l’acuité des défis sociaux encore persistants.
    Keywords: Maroc
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2020–12–17

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