nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒12‒14
nine papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Establishing a new role for antidumping policy: protection of an unestablished industry (Morocco—Hot-Rolled Steel (Turkey)) By Meredith A. Crowley; Federico Ortino
  2. School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy By Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco
  3. The Economic and Social Impact of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) on Migrant Remittances: An Overview of Tunisia and Morocco By Habib, Hajer
  4. Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2020 By World Bank
  5. Risk-taking behaviour of family firms: evidence from Tunisia By Dorra Ellouze; Khadija Mnasri
  6. Jordan Economic Monitor, June 2020 By World Bank
  7. Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia By Alkhareif, Ryadh M.; Barnett, William A.
  8. Tunisia Public Expenditure Review By World Bank; African Development Bank
  9. Sebze ve Meyvede Tarladan Tuketiciye Fiyat Farkini Belirleyen Faktorler By Okan Eren; Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Mustafa Utku Ozmen

  1. By: Meredith A. Crowley; Federico Ortino
    Abstract: This article analyses economic and legal issues in the WTO dispute between Morocco and Turkey over hot-rolled steel. Over 2013-14, the Moroccan government conducted an antidumping investigation against two Turkish steel producers. Morocco’s investigation concluded that Turkish dumping was retarding the establishment of a new domestic industry; antidumping duties were imposed against both Turkish producers. Turkey filed a complaint at the WTO in 2016, asserting procedural and substantive violations. The Panel found that Morocco had acted inconsistently with a number of WTO obligations, including those regarding its injury investigation. Although Morocco initially appealed the Panel’s decision, it withdrew its appeal after the antidumping duties expired in September 2019. This case is unusual and important in that it was the first antidumping case in which a country sought to use antidumping duties to protect a newly developing industry. The Panel may have missed an opportunity to explore the definition of an ‘unestablished’ industry for purposes of determining injury in an antidumping investigation.
    Keywords: Industrial policy, trade policy, antidumping, WTO, dispute settlement, Morocco
    JEL: F13 F53 O24 O25
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal; Pastore, Francesco
    Abstract: In emerging market economies, young people feel like little boats in the ocean, due to the low and uncertain macroeconomic context. In the present study, we examine the school-to-work transition in Turkey over the period 2014-2017 by using a monthly dataset. As most emerging market economies, the Turkish one faces a set of different macroeconomic conditions which make it a very hard task for many young graduates to find a job . We use panel logit models which allow studying the determinants of the probability of school-to-work transition completion with a time variant model. We look at such macroeconomic factors as GDP growth, industrial production index, real sector confidence index, real exchange rate and interest rate. In addition, we use some classifications for estimating the wage model for the new graduates and estimate by panel logit models the probability for young graduates of getting a white-collar job. Besides, the estimates are repeated for boom and bust periods, and in credit expansion periods.
    Keywords: School to work transition,Macroeconomic conditions,Developing economy,Turkish economy
    JEL: J64 O57
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Habib, Hajer
    Abstract: The spread of the novel coronavirus and 'stay at home' measures in response to this global health crisis is profoundly changing societies and economies around the world. The objective of this work is to analyze the economic impact of Covid-19 by focusing on their implications on migrant remittances flows in Tunisia and Morocco. Indeed, we analyze in which countries, where individuals depend on remittances and where this dependence intersects with economic vulnerability and inadequate financial infrastructure. We use micro-data from the Afrobarometer survey, wave 2016-2018. Based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the results show that the decline in remittances will exacerbate economic difficulties during the crisis for individuals who depend on remittances. In Tunisia, 60% of individuals who say they are dependent on remittances are unemployed and 46% of those who say they are dependent on remittances face a lack of liquidity. In Morocco, 63% and 43%, respectively the share of individuals who say they are dependent on remittances are unemployed and the share with liquidity problems. Also, "stay at home" measures are likely to limit the ability of individuals to receive funds from abroad. Both countries have similar access to infrastructure, more than 46% of people who depend on remittances do not have a bank account and 37% do not have access to the internet. They would therefore be less able to adapt to a restriction on in-person remittance services during a lockdown to contain the Covid-19 virus. For this reason, the paradigm shift from cash to digital money is necessary.
    Keywords: Remittances,Covid-19,Economic vulnerability,Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
    JEL: F22 F24 O15 I10 R2
    Date: 2020
  4. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Energy - Energy Policies & Economics Energy - Oil & Gas Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Poverty Reduction - Inequality
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Dorra Ellouze; Khadija Mnasri (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine)
    Abstract: Using a unique database of 87 Tunisian non-financial firms over the period 1998-2014, we analyse risk-taking behaviour of family firms. We find evidence that family ownership is positively related to corporate risk-taking. But family firms undertake less risky projects when the manager is not a member of the family or when the founder is no longer active in the firm. Our results show also that in these cases, family ownership becomes negatively associated to risk-taking. Finally, we find that family firms take more risk only when they belong to diversified groups, especially those operating in several industries.
    Keywords: family ownership,corporate governance,group affiliation,risk-taking
    Date: 2019–12–30
  6. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Alkhareif, Ryadh M.; Barnett, William A.
    Abstract: The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on a panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. The GDP nowcasts produced in this paper can accurately mimic GDP growth rates for Saudi Arabia, including for the non-oil sector. Our GDFM has outperformed other traditional models in tracking the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. In our view, the non-oil private sector GDP nowcasts provided in this paper can substitute the traditional set of indicators used to monitor monthly private sector activity.
    Keywords: Nowcast; non-oil GDP; generalized dynamic factor model; principal components analysis.
    JEL: C22 E37 E5
    Date: 2020–11
  8. By: World Bank; African Development Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development - Public Sector Management and Reform Public Sector Development - Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform Education - Education Finance Energy - Energy Conservation & Efficiency Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Systems Development & Reform Social Protections and Labor - Pensions & Retirement Systems Social Protections and Labor - Safety Nets and Transfers Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance Water Resources - Water Conservation
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Okan Eren; Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Mustafa Utku Ozmen
    Abstract: [TR] Ozellikle gida enflasyonunun yuksek oldugu donemlerde,meyve ve sebzelerin uretici fiyatlari ile nihai tuketici fiyatlari arasindaki fark gundeme gelmekte ve bu konu ile ilgili tartismalar artmaktadir. Bu calismada, TUIK gida sepetinde yer alan 15 meyve ve 13 sebze urunu icin ciftcinin eline gecen fiyat (tarla fiyati) ile tuketici fiyatlari arasindaki oransal farka etki eden faktorler, 2004-2016 yillari icin panel veri analiz teknikleri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Sonuclar, ithalatin uretime oraninin fiyat marjini hem meyve hem de sebzelerde etkilerken ihracatin uretime oraninin ise sadece meyve fiyat marjinda etkili olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica doviz kuru ve maliyete iliskin faktorlerin de fiyat marjini donemsel olarak etkiledigi bulgulanmaktadir. [EN] Especially during the periods of high food inflation, the topic of profit margin between farm gate and final consumer prices of fruits and vegetables has been coming up to public agenda and debate on this topic has been growing. In this paper, the factors that affect the producer (farm gate) and consumer price ratios of 15 fruit and 13 vegetable items, which are included in the CPI food basket, are investigated for the period between 2004 and 2016 using panel data method. The results indicate ratio of quantity of imports to total output affect profit margin in both vegetables and fruits, while ratio of quantity of exports to total output only affects the spread in fruits. In addition to this, exchange rate and other cost factors affect profit margin periodically.
    Date: 2020

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