|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Olfa Frini (ISCAE Manouba University) |
| Abstract: | In Tunisia as in some Arab countries like in Algeria and Egypt, fertility has known, after a deep decline, a steady increase from the mid of 2000s. This paper tries to apprehend this unexpected and current demographic issue. For that aim, we revisit the classical fertility decline factors (namely education, income, mortality and contraceptive prevalence) in order to inspect if they do no longer influence fertility downward. Furthermore, we explore three new socio-economic factors likely to favor fertility rise, such as divorce, unemployment and longevity. We apply the dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) method over the period 1999-2017 on eight Tunisian regions. Findings confirm our presumption. The three new variables estimated have a positive effect on fertility. Likewise, the educationfertility interaction is no longer obvious. Family planning program appears no longer playing its role. The income effect dominated the substitution effect in favor of fertility increase. The increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be caused by the sociocultural factors. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1409&r=all |
| By: | Amir Lebdioui (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the political economy of resource revenue management in the context of an extremely high need for economic diversification across several countries in the Middle East and North Africa. This paper find that across the board, resource-rich MENA countries have tended to spend their resource revenues generated by the last commodity boom by fueling domestic consumption, both at the public sector and private level, rather than for investment to increase the productivity of non-resource tradable sectors. This paper further argues that that the standard policy advice on managing resource revenues, which has been dominated by a short-term emphasis on consumption, fiscal stabilization and market equilibrium at the expense of long term structural change, is unsuitable in the context of an urgent need for diversification in MENA oil exporters. This paper also highlights important differences in the political economy of resource rents management according to the level of resource rent per capita: ‘Medium resource rich countries’, such as Algeria, Iran or Iraq, cannot afford to achieve growth and employment by pursuing the resource revenue management model currently followed by countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which is more based on financial diversification, rents distribution through public sector employment and consumption subsidies, rather than the transformation of the domestic productive structure. Although all MENA exports need to diversify their economies, the opportunity costs of investments in financial assets overseas rather than real assets domestically varies across countries. This study concludes by outlining a resource revenue management model that is more adapted to the context of the various oil-dependent economies of the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1416&r=all |
| By: | Hamilton, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the fiscal and economic implications of Iraq’s current demographic trajectory. We find that, given Iraq’s almost total dependence on oil for government revenues, slight changes in the demographic transition rate could result in significant cumulative per capita expenditure changes- equivalent to $2.9bn, or approximately 7% of the current health budget, 9% of the current defence budget, or 17% of current aid flows. Furthermore, evidence from the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, suggests that Iraq’s relatively slow demographic transition is reducing per capita economic growth, especially as it is combined with a hostile business environment. Specifically, using a panel dataset, we find that the interactive effect of a 1% decrease in the dependency ratio and a 1% decrease in the unit costs of starting and running a business could add, on average, 1.2% to GDP per capita in a typical MENA country. Therefore, investing in Iraq’s demographic transition could potentially yield significant economic returns. This is especially pertinent if the COVID-19 induced recession results in a significant increase in the budget deficit. As reducing demographic momentum will be equivalent to a per capita increase in resources available for basic services. Evidence from other MENA countries, especially neighbouring Iran, suggests that interventions that support a faster demographic transition, by promoting reproductive rights, are feasible to implement and could, therefore, have quite a profound effect on future economic growth. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107411&r=all |
| By: | Aysu Celgin; Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this study, a weekly index that aims tracking developments in economic activity in a timely manner is introduced. The index is formed by using weekly annual percentage changes of credit growth, expenditures by domestic and foreign cards, total number of job postings, electricity consumption and foreign trade data. Index is used to analyze the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economic activity. The index indicates that the pandemic started to affect the economic activity negatively in the second half of March and the economy started to recover starting from the first week of May as the restrictions are started to be eased gradually. Overall, the index is successful in tracking the economic activity in Turkey. As a result, the index, which can be updated on a weekly frequency with the flow of information, can be used to produce timely nowcasts for the GDP growth. [TR] Bu calismada, gunluk ve haftalik olarak aciklanan yuksek frekansli veriler kullanilarak iktisadi faaliyetteki gelismeleri zamanli olarak izlemeye imkan veren haftalik frekansta olusturulmus bir endeks tanitilmaktadir. Krediler, banka ve kredi kartiyla yapilan harcamalar, is ilanlari, elektrik tuketimi ve dis ticaret verilerinin haftalik frekansta yillik yuzde degisimlerinden olusturulan endeks yardimiyla koronavirus pandemisinin iktisadi faaliyet uzerine etkileri analiz edilmistir.Endeks, pandemiye bagli etkilerin Mart ayinin ikinci yarisindan itibaren iktisadi faaliyeti olumsuz etkiledigine,Mayis ayi ile birlikte ise dipten donus sinyallerinin basladigina isaret etmektedir. Endeksin milli gelir buyumesini takip etmekte faydali oldugu bulunmustur.Bu cercevede, veri akisi ile birlikte haftalik olarak guncellenebilen endeks kisa donemli milli gelir tahminlerinde kullanilabilecektir. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2018&r=all |
| By: | Hüseyin Ikizler (Presidency of Strategy and Budget); Çagla Ökten (Bilkent University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the employment effects of the employment subsidy programs implemented in Turkey since 2008. The Turkish Government put into practice active labor market programs to generate new employment for all women and younger men, the relatively disadvantaged groups in the Turkish labor market. We use a nationally representative microlevel dataset and a difference-in-differences approach to estimate these programs' causal effects. Although these incentive programs are relatively costly, they impact the gender division of labor, especially in the low-skilled blue-collar jobs and high-skilled white-collar jobs. These wage subsidies result, on average, a 1.2 ppt increase, and at most, a 3.5 ppt increase in the share of women in newly hired workers in high-skilled white-collar jobs. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1421&r=all |
| By: | Gulcan Yildirim Gungor; Tuba Pelin Sumer |
| Abstract: | [EN] This note aims to estimate credit riskiness of the corporate sector in Turkey with alternative methods for January 2007 -March 2019 period. Initially, probability of default is calculated by option pricing method for the listed companies and the relationship with non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is examined. In the one-year period following the increase (decrease) in the probability of default, a similar upward (downward) movement is observed in the corporate NPL ratio of the banking sector. Since the option pricing method focuses on relatively large scale companies listed on the stock exchange, credit riskiness is also calculated using NPL additions and commercial loan interest rates to increase the comprehensiveness of the study and include financials of the relatively small scale firms (SMEs). Although the sample size and assumptions differ, credit risk indicators estimated by alternative methods move together.Therefore, the credit riskiness indicators estimated with high frequency market data is important for monitoring the financial fragilities of corporate sector and their reflections on asset quality of the banking sector. [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’de faaliyet gosteren reel sektor firmalarinin kredi riskliligi alternatif yontemlerle Ocak 2007-Mart 2019 donemi icin tahmin edilmektedir. Oncelikle opsiyon fiyatlama yontemiyle borsaya kote firmalar icin temerrut olasiligi hesaplanmakta ve firma kredisi tahsili gecikmis alacak (TGA) oraniyla arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuclarina gore reel sektorun temerrut olasiligindaki artisi (azalisi) izleyen bir yillik surecte bankacilik sektoru TGA oraninda da benzer bir yukari (asagi) yonlu hareket oldugu gorulmektedir. Opsiyon fiyatlama yonteminde borsaya kote gorece buyuk olcekli firmalara odaklanildigi icin, temsil kuvvetini arttirmak ve nispeten kucuk olcekli firmalarin finansal gelismelerini de analize dahil etmek amaciyla kredi riskliligi, TGA ilaveleri ve ticari kredi faiz oranlari kullanilarak da hesaplanmaktadir. Kapsanan orneklem ve varsayimlar farkli olsa da alternatif yontemlerle hesaplanan kredi riski gostergelerinin beraber hareket ettigi gorulmektedir. Dolayisiyla, yuksek frekanstaki piyasa verileri kullanilarak hesaplanan kredi riskliligi gostergelerinin, gecikmeli finansal tabloveri akisina sahip reel kesim firmalarinin finansal kirilganliklarinin izlenmesi ve bankacilik sektoru aktif kalitesine yansimasi icin onemli bir gosterge oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2017&r=all |
| By: | Insaf Guedidi (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis (ESSECT)); Leila Baghdadi (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis (ESSECT)) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the relationship between carbon emissions, environmental provisions in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs) using a panel data gravity model for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1990- 2015. We find that RTAs have a positive effect on carbon emissions. However, good institutional quality in MENA region decreases carbon footprint. Participation of MENA countries in GVCs rises environmental degradation in upstream Low-Tech Manufacturing (LTM) sectors and downstream High-Tech Manufacturing (HTM) and Primary sectors. Moreover, we examine the interaction effects between RTAs with environmental laws and participation of MENA countries in GVCs. Results confirm that participating in upstream activities in GVCs and signing more RTAs with environmental laws reduce pollution in LTM sectors. Furthermore, our study proves that RTAs (with or without environmental laws) could reduce carbon emissions in MENA region participating in backward GVCs. Backward participation is related to trade in LTM and primary sectors. Therefore, there is a need to understand the GVC landscape in MENA region to be able to set suitable RTAs with environmental provisions in order to reduce pollution and contribute to sustainable upgrading in GVCs. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1428&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34113&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Public Health Promotion Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Poverty Monitoring & Analysis Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34318&r=all |
| By: | Bendob Ali (University Center of AinTemouchent); Naima Bentouir (University Center of AinTemouchent) |
| Abstract: | Oil-exporting countries suffer from the volatility of oil prices, especially in the recent period, which makes them vulnerable to risk trying to find a hedging strategy. This paper aims to propose a new method to predict the fiscal breakeven oil price, for oil-exporting countries based on an empirical study using the Black-Scholes model in Algeria. To achieve our examination we use the oil prices with daily data during the period of 02/01/2013 to 21/09/2020, the fiscal breakeven oil prices and external breakeven oil prices from 2000 to 2020, which are determined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); in addition to the fiscal breakeven oil prices of Algeria. The main results of our study highlight that there is a strong correlation between the fiscal breakeven prices based on the Black-Scholes model and the external breakeven price, and weak correlation with the IMF’s fiscal breakeven prices, which means that the Black-Scholes model is outperforming to predict the fiscal oil prices in comparison with the IMF method. The results also indicate that there is a negative correlation between the B-S and the reference prices indicated in Algeria's public budget. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1418&r=all |
| By: | Thibault Lemaire (Université Paris 1 Panthéon); Dina Ragab (Université Paris 1 Panthéon - Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Power sector reforms have been widely adopted in the turn of the 21st Century, including in the Middle East and North Africa. Have the promises that accompany such reforms led to technological change in the region? Adopting an instrumental variable approach and using an index of power sector reforms and aggregate macroeconomic data for 18 Arab League member states between 1982 and 2013, we provide robust evidence that there is a positive causal relationship between power sector reforms and technological change, proxied by high-tech exports, in Arab countries. While the literature has evidenced a relationship between such reforms and economic growth, our results suggest that technological change is a transmission channel of this relationship. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1423&r=all |
| By: | Jonas Luckmann (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Khalid Siddig (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Johanes Agbahey (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyze the effects of increasing Palestinian access to shared groundwater aquifers with Israel. We apply a water focused computable general equilibrium model to the economies of the West Bank and Israel and analyze two simulations. In the first, we raise the water abstraction rate of the West Bank to the maximal allowance according to the current interim agreement on shared water resources with Israel. In the second, we implement a new agreement that assumes an equiproportionate access to shared aquifers. Thereby, we quantify the implications for the two territories as well as for the overall region. Results show that the economic gains from increased water access to the West Bank economy by far outweigh the losses to the Israeli economy, as the latter is less dependent on shared groundwater resources and has other alternative sources including reclaimed wastewater and desalinated seawater. This is the first study to address this issue taking into account the economy-wide implications of such a new agreement on the use of shared water resources between Palestine and Israel. The modelling approach presented here can be used to substantiate the political negotiation process towards a final agreement on access to shared water resources between Israel and the West Bank. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1410&r=all |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny (Ewha Womans University) |
| Abstract: | If political connectedness and ability to get ahead through corruption are latent dimensions of multidimensional inequality, then corruption could be the missing piece in the Arab inequality puzzle. In fact, the positive inequality–corruption link holds in a number of developed countries, but not in the MENA or other emerging, resource-reliant countries. This is confirmed using graphical and statistical analysis, both in levels and in changes. An increase in inequality has the expected detrimental effect on corruption in OECD countries, particularly those with state-led non-liberal markets. The relationship is weak or negative in liberal-market economies. Concentration of economic power appears to translate into political power in coordinated and networked societies while the link vanishes in societies where most transactions are done at arm’s length. Inequality affects corruption negatively in emerging and resource-extracting economies, and notably the MENA. Instead of following the trends among the comparative upper-middle income countries, MENA exhibits the trends seen among less developed economies, an indication of a variety of the Dutch disease. We do not find an inequality–pilferage trap across developing countries. Successful development and building of institutions initially raise inequality as growth is spread unevenly throughout society. The inequality–corruption link starts out negative and finishes positive across successive stages of development. This implies that, beside improving laws and punishing corrupt policymakers, countries should manage economic distribution, not just out of concern for social justice but also to lay down conditions for healthy political and economic contestation |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1417&r=all |
| By: | Nesrine Bouhamed (FSEG Sfax - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax - Université de Sfax - University of Sfax); Laurent Carnis (AME-DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Understanding road safety issues is an essential step in proposing appropriate and relevant ways to improve road safety. In Tunisia, the balance sheet of road accidents shows a critical situation in terms of road safety when compared to other countries. The approach proposed in this article is to first describe the Tunisian context and highlight its geophysical, demographic, urban and socio-economic specificities. The contribution also proposes an inventory of mobility and road accidents and its characterization. The analysis of the situation provides a general perspective on the road safety system in Tunisia. Secondly, an empirical investigation among the institutional actors of road safety helps to put into perspective the results of the descriptive analysis and to establish an in-depth diagnosis of the dysfunctions of the public policy of road safety in Tunisia. This is a comprehensive qualitative approach. The analysis of the issues at stake, based on consensus and institutional divergences, leads to the establishment of possible courses of action to improve the situation. These concern both the field of structural, organisational and managerial reforms in favour of a better targeting of public road safety policies. |
| Abstract: | La compréhension des enjeux de sécurité routière est une étape indispensable pour proposer des pistes d'améliorations adaptées et pertinentes. En Tunisie, le bilan des accidents de la route laisse apparaître une situation critique en matière de sécurité routière, lorsqu'elle est comparée aux autres pays. La démarche proposée dans cet article est de s'attacher, en premier temps, à décrire le contexte tunisien et en souligner les spécificités géophysiques, démographiques, urbaines, socio-économiques. La contribution propose aussi un état des lieux de la mobilité et des accidents de la route et sa caractérisation. L'analyse de la situation permet de disposer d'une perspective générale dans laquelle s'inscrit le système de la sécurité routière en Tunisie. Dans un deuxième temps, une investigation empirique auprès des acteurs institutionnels de la sécurité routière aide à mettre en perspective les résultats de l'analyse descriptive et à établir un diagnostic approfondi des dysfonctionnements de la politique publique de sécurité routière en Tunisie. Il s'agit d'une approche qualitative compréhensive. L'analyse des enjeux, sur la base de consensus et de divergences institutionnels, conduit à établir des pistes d'actions possibles pour améliorer la situation. Celles-ci concernent à la fois le champ des réformes structurelles, organisationnelles, et managériales en faveur d'un meilleur ciblage des politiques publiques de sécurité routière. |
| Keywords: | road safety,institutions,consensus and divergences,public policies,Tunisia,sécurité routière,convergences et divergences,politiques publiques,Tunisie |
| Date: | 2020–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03002786&r=all |
| By: | Eman Moustafa (General Authority for Investment and Free Zones) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a time series analysis to estimate the impact of corruption on FDI in Egypt during the period 1970-2019 and to address some of the drawbacks of the empirical literature. Unit root and cointegration tests are used to ensure stationarity and long run relationship among variables of interest. The results show a significant positive relationship between FDI and corruption in Egypt. Since corruption is not found to hinder FDI inflows, treating corruption should be based on sound legal procedures that infringe neither on the freedom of FDI nor on the degree of openness of the economy, which are the real stimulants of FDI in Egypt. |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1408&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Applications Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Policy and Strategies Information and Communication Technologies - Information Security & Privacy Information and Communication Technologies - Information and Records Management Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34364&r=all |
| By: | Sofiane Ghali (ESSECT-University of Tunis); Mustapha K. Nabli (North Africa Bureau of Economic Studies (NABES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the Tunisian experience of exports diversification and the role played by industrial policies. It describes the general trends and the dynamics of diversification using a very disaggregated data set on exports for the period 1995-2017, for both primary and resourcebased products and manufactured products. It has been generally recognized that openness and export promotion policies established since the early 1970s succeeded in allowing Tunisia to achieve significant export growth, especially in low-technology manufacturing. But, until recently, the general wisdom has been that the country has achieved limited success in moving up the technological ladder, with diversification, and sophistication of exports. In this paper we show that this view is not warranted, and that extensive diversification and sophistication has taken place over the last couple of decades, and more significantly the most recent period, in which Tunisia has been remarkably resilient, despite the political upheavals which have rocked the country. The paper highlights the successes and failures of the process of diversification and investigates the role of both the "horizontal" and "vertical" policies pursued. It focuses on the “how” issue and explores whether and how specific policies are successful or not in meeting their objectives. Most importantly it presents a novel approach to study the dynamics of diversification and tries to identify the basic reasons behind the success or failure of diversification. It shows that the dynamics of innovation is extremely rich and varied. Diversification may be successful with products becoming "mature" exports or "emerging" exports. But there may also be failures with products experiencing "stalled" exports or "episodic" exports processes. These empirical findings lead to a questioning of one major argument in the literature that the main constraint to diversification is a market failure due to the fact that innovators (who introduce new products or new markets in exports) bear the major cost of their innovation, but later entrants reap the benefits. Discovery and innovation seem to be very extremely common, but success and consolidation are much more difficult. The paper draws important conclusions about the effectiveness of “horizontal vs vertical policies”, “single vs packages of policies”, and the focus on spurring discovery and innovation per say vs supporting the growth of already emerged innovations. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1415&r=all |
| By: | Iyad Dhaoui (Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies) |
| Abstract: | This research paper investigates the role of electronic government on various aspects of economic and social development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The paper uses a panel data of 15 MENA countries between 2003 and 2018. The paper examines, first, the effect of e-government on good governance. Second, it highlights the effect of good governance on sustainable development and third, it assesses the effect of e-government development on sustainable development, i.e the digital dividends. The paper points out some challenges that prevent MENA countries to benefit from digitalization in their development strategies and proposes some policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1424&r=all |
| By: | Michalis Drouvelis (University of Birmingham); Bilal Malaeb (Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science); Michael Vlassopoulos (University of Southampton); Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | Lebanon is the country with the highest density of refugees in the world, raising the question of whether the host and refugee populations can cooperate harmoniously. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment in Lebanon studying intra- and inter-group behavior of Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in a repeated public goods game without and with punishment. We randomly assign participants to Lebanese-only, Syrian-only, or mixed sessions. We find that randomly formed pairs in homogeneous sessions, on average, contribute and punish significantly more than those in mixed sessions, suggesting in-group cooperation is stronger. These patterns are driven by Lebanese participants. Further analysis indicates that behavior in mixed groups is more strongly conditioned on expectations about the partner’s cooperation than in homogeneous groups. |
| Keywords: | refugees, public goods game, cooperation, punishment |
| JEL: | D91 J5 F22 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:20-28&r=all |
| By: | Khalid Siddig (Humboldt University of Berlin); Mohammed Basheer (The University of Manchester); Jonas Luckmann (Humboldt University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to increase Ethiopia's electricity generation and affect water users in Egypt and Sudan. We analyze potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the steady-state operation of the GERD using a computable general equilibrium model coupled with hydrological, water allocation, and crop models. Results show that the increase in hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture in Sudan due to the flow regulation effect of the GERD would increase Sudan's accumulated GDP by US$ 27-29 billion over 2020-2060. The choice of cropping pattern for Sudan's new irrigation schemes is key to maximizing the county's macro-economic benefits. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1427&r=all |
| By: | Fida Karam (Gulf University for Science and Technology); Chahir Zaki (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the contribution of female labor participation as well female ownership/management to trade margins using firm-level data for 18 manufacturing and services sectors in 8 MENA countries for 2013. This topic is innovative, and critical for the MENA region where female participation in the export sector is shy, at a time the region is looking for new sources of competitiveness to boost its exports. Our results show that first, female labor participation has a positive a significant impact on both the probability of export and export volume, with the effect on the probability of the firm to export being lower for small firms relatively to large firms. Female labor participation matters in traditional sectors where the MENA region has a comparative advantage. Second, while female ownership or management is not significant in its impact on trade margins, it seems to be positively correlated with the probability of large firms to export. Furthermore, this positive effect is mainly driven by female ownership and not management, highlighting the importance of female empowerment in international trade. Third, there is no statistical evidence that femaleowned/managed firms face more financial constraints to export than their male counterparts. The effect of other regulatory barriers on exports, such as having a website for the company, is more pronounced for female-owned/managed firm, with respect to a men-owned/managed firm. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1425&r=all |
| By: | Marouane Alaya (Portland State University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper various spatial econometric models are performed to check the existence of spatial growth spillovers across a sample study including 73 countries from MENA, Asia, and Europe over the period 1996-2014. The results indicate the occurrence of positive spatial correlation in terms of economic growth within and between the different regions included in the study. However, the findings are somewhat disappointing for the MENA region since we did not find evidence of the presence of strong connections of MENA economies with the other regions namely Asia and Europe. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1426&r=all |
| By: | Ryadh M. Alkhareif (International Monetary Fund, and Saudi ArabiaÕs Ministry of Finance; William Barnett); William William (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas; Center for Financial Stability, New York City; IC2 Institute, University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | The paper constructs monthly GDP nowcasts for Saudi Arabia by estimating a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) on a panel of 272 variables over the period from January 2010 to June 2018. The GDP nowcasts produced in this paper can accurately mimic GDP growth rates for Saudi Arabia, including for the non-oil sector. Our GDFM has outperformed other traditional models in tracking the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. In our view, the non-oil private sector GDP nowcasts provided in this paper can substitute the traditional set of indicators used to monitor monthly private sector activity. |
| Keywords: | Nowcast, non-oil GDP, generalized dynamic factor model, principal components analysis. |
| JEL: | C22 E53 E37 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202018&r=all |
| By: | Yassin Sabha; Mouna Hamden; Armando Heilbron |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Foreign Direct Investment Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Private Sector Development - Business Environment |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34443&r=all |
| By: | Kirchner, Markus; Rieth, Malte |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilisation policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplication between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilisation tools than hawkish inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | small open economies,sovereign risk,monetary policy,exchange rates,business cycles,DSGE models |
| JEL: | E58 E63 F41 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:222020&r=all |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Manouba); Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University) |
| Abstract: | Using a nationally representative data set extracted from the Jordanian Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS) for the two years 2010 and 2016, we examine the wage differentials between natives-born workers and migrants in Jordan's labor market. By applying Oaxaca– Blinder and quantile decomposition methods we decompose the distributional wage differentials into endowment effects, explained by differences in productivity characteristics, and discrimination effects attributable to unequal returns to covariates. We find an increasing average wage gap in favor of residents workers over time. The wage differentials are found to be larger at the bottom and middle parts of the wage distributions in both 2010 and 2016. The compositional differences in education between natives and non-natives explain significantly the wage gap only in 2010 but not in 2016, while main drivers of the unexplained component (discrimination effect) of the average wage gap appears to stem from the education covariate in both 2010 and 2016. We also find that discrimination against migrant workers increases with the quantiles of wage distribution in both 2010 and 2016 except for the 90th quantile. |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1420&r=all |
| By: | Anais Dahmani-Scuitti; Jesse Doyle; Matthieu Lefebvre; Moritz Meyer; Anirudh Rajashekar |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Systems Development & Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Spatial and Local Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Poverty Reduction - Inequality Poverty Reduction - Poverty and Health |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34463&r=all |
| By: | Denizhan Duran; Rekha Menon |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Systems Development & Reform |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34238&r=all |
| By: | Marielle MONTGINOUL; Sébastien LOUBIER; Frédéric MAUREL; Dominique ROJAT |
| Abstract: | Les prélèvements en eau souterraine ont triplé en 50 ans et on estime que 20 % des aquifères sont aujourd’hui surexploités à travers le monde. Les raisons de cette surexploitation sont relativement bien connues et tiennent à la caractéristique de « bien commun » de l’eau souterraine. Deux cadres d’analyses complémentaires présentés dans ce papier permettent d’identifier les facteurs explicatifs de l’inefficacité relative des modes de gestion des ressources en eau souterraine : l’approche institutionnelle d’Elinor Ostrom et, bien que moins utilisée mais tout autant prometteuse, la théorie des contrats et plus particulièrement la théorie de l’agence. Ces deux courants prônent, pour des raisons parfois identiques, parfois complémentaires, une gestion décentralisée consistant à introduire des « agents intermédiaires » dans le processus de gestion. Nous montrons cependant qu’à ces deux approches doivent s’adosser des instruments économiques incitatifs à l’économie d’eau ou au partage de l’information. Six cas d’étude de gestion plus ou moins décentralisée de gestion de l’eau souterraine ont permis de mettre en évidence les forces et faiblesses de chacun au regard des principes théoriques présentés précédemment. Ces cas d’étude sont : la nappe de l’Astien et la nappe du Roussillon en France, l’aquifère de la Mancha en Espagne, la nappe de Bsissi oued el Akarit en Tunisie, le bassin hydrogéologique de l’Azraq en Jordanie et le bassin du Souss Massa au Maroc. |
| Keywords: | Maroc, Tunisie, Jordanie, Autres pays, France |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr11805&r=all |
| By: | Betul Pektas Erdem |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye’de yurt ici tasarruflarin yatirimlarin gerisinde kalmasi sonucu buyumenin kaynagi olan yatirimlar daha cok dis tasarruflar ile finanse edilmektedir. Yuksek ve surdurulebilir buyumenin saglanmasi ile dis kaynaklara olan bagimliligin azaltilmasinda yurt ici tasarruflarin artirilmasi oldukca onemlidir. Bu calismanin temel amaci, Turkiye’de hanehalki tasarruflari uzerinde etkili olan faktorlerin belirlenmesidir. Hanehalki tasarruflari zaman icerisinde onemli miktarda azalmaktadir. Bu azalista daha cok dayanikli tuketim mallari icinde ulastirma ve haberlesmeye iliskin harcamalar etkili olmaktadir. Tasarruf yapan hanehalklari daha cok banka hesabi ve ise yapilan yatirim araclarini tercih etmektedir. Hanehalki tasarruf oranlari uzerinde en cok gelir etkili olmaktadir. Hanede calisan kadin oranindaki artis ile oturulan konuta sahip olunmasi hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini pozitif etkilerken, ikinci konut, arsa sahipligi gibi durumlar ise hanehalki tasarruflarini negatif etkilemektedir. [EN]As a result of the investment remaining behind the savings in Turkey, investments that are the source of the growth are mostly financed by external savings. Increasing domestic savings is a very important issue for ensuring high and sustainable growth and reducing dependence on external resources. The main aim of this study is to determine the factors that impact on household savings in Turkey. Household savings have decreased significantly over time. This decrease is mainly driven by transport and communication expenditures in the durable consumer goods group. Households with positive savings usually direct their savings to bank accounts and investment for business more. It is found that the influential factor on household saving rate is income. It is observed that an increase in the proportion of women working in households and possession of an estate affect household savings rate positively. Second housing and land ownership negatively affect household savings. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2015&r=all |