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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Lassassi, Moundir (Center for Research in Applied Economics for Development); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the female labor force participation (FLFP) behavior over the past decade in five MENA countries namely, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and Tunisia. Low FLFP rates in these countries, as it is in other MENA countries, are well documented. We conduct synthetic panel analysis using age-period-cohort (APC) methodology and decompose FLFP rates into age, period and cohort effects. We present our results with Hanoch-Honig/Deaton-Paxson normalization and maximum entropy estimation approaches to the APC methodology in order to observe robustness of our results. We first study the aggregate FLFP and note the differentials in age, period and cohort effects across the countries we consider.The analysis is carried also out by rural/urban regional differentiation, marital status and educational attainment. Implications of our results for possible government policies to increase FLFP rates are discussed. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, synthetic panel analysis, life-cycle profiles, period effects, cohort effects, MENA countries |
| JEL: | C23 C25 D1 J21 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13814&r=all |
| By: | Oguzhan Cepni; Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the co-movement between credit growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey over the period January 2004–October 2019. By taking into account alternative credit decomposition and the variations over time and across different frequencies using the wavelet analysis, the results show that: i) GDP growth highly synchronizes with credit growth compared to other financial variables such as stock exchange, bonds, and exchange rate; ii) There is a high correlation between commercial loan growth and capital formation, whereas a relatively weak one is observed between consumer loans and consumption; iii) Co-movement stemming from Turkish Lira (TL) credits to GDP growth is stronger than foreign exchange (FX) credits where the latter is significant until 2015; iv) Public and domestic private banks are the main drivers of economic activity while the foreign banks are following them. By showing the differential coherence of varied types of credit on GDP growth, we specify that shocks to different credit types are crucial to analyze business cycles. For policymakers, this result implies that the dynamics of different credit types are crucial to analyze the impacts of credit cycles on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Credit growth, GDP growth, Time variation, Frequency variation, Wavelet analysis |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F43 F44 C49 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2014&r=all |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu |
| Abstract: | We analyze consumption and saving preferences of birth-year cohorts with respect to age groups and income definitions in Turkey. For this purpose, we develop a pseudo-panel data set based on birth-year cohorts using sixteen consecutive Household Budget Surveys (HBS), which are prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) from 2003 to 2018. Our empirical analysis reveals that there is a positive and significant relationship between the growth of cohort consumption and the growth of cohort income. Moreover, the direction of this relationship is robust to the definition of income. Our empirical findings suggest that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of current income is slightly higher than the MPC out of permanent income among birth-year cohorts. We find notable fluctuations in the estimated MPC rates only when we classify birth-year cohorts according to age groups. Therefore, we conclude that consumption and saving preferences of birth-year cohorts vary significantly according to age groups. |
| Keywords: | Household consumption and saving preferences, Birth-year cohorts, Pseudo-panel, Marginal propensity to consume |
| JEL: | C33 D12 D14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2015&r=all |
| By: | El-Bialy, Nora; Fraile Aranda, Elisa; Nicklisch, Andreas; Saleh, Lamis; Voigt, Stefan |
| Abstract: | An unprecedented number of refugees from Syria has sought refuge in both the Middle East and Europe since the beginning of the civil war in Syria in 2011. We analyze the level of altruism and risk-seeking among Syrian civil war victims in Jordan. We find systematic variations in their revealed levels of altruism and their willingness to accept risk: feeling as if having no future coincides with both more egoistic and more risk-seeking behavior. Refugees' behavioral responses and their sense of no future correlate with their current personal living experiences. Our findings suggest that both the sense of no future and the accompanying behavioral responses are primarily associated with miserable current living conditions rather than with experiences directly related to the civil war in Syria. Policy implications of these findings seem straightforward: Policy makers need to provide additional assistance for facilitating family reunion. |
| Keywords: | experiments,altruism,risk-seeking,psychological distress,migration,civil war |
| JEL: | C92 D64 D81 D91 F22 H56 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:41&r=all |
| By: | Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla (University of Khartoum Sudan) |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of non-farm income in the livelihood of the rural population in Sudan, information available on its size and determinants is scanty. This study examined the patterns and determinants of decisions to participate in non-farm activities in rural Sudan. It also investigates whether the determinants of participation in non-farm activities vary across agriculture sub-sectors and income groups as well as among males and females. The data for this study was sourced from the Sudanese National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) conducted by Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics in 2009. The results show that non-farm income is a crucial source of livelihood, contributing about 43% to household income in rural Sudan. The results of multinomial logit and probit estimation methods indicate that educational level, mean of transportation, lack of land and lack of access to formal credit are the most significant factors that push rural farmers to participate in non-farm activities. Surprisingly, the effect of household income was positive and significant, implying that individuals from rich households have higher opportunity to engage in non-farm activities compared to their poor counterparts.Moreover, the analysis revealed some symptoms of gender and location disparities in the effect of factors that influence participation in non-farm activities. The study concluded with some recommendations that aim to enhance the engagement in non-farm activities as an important diversification strategy to complement the role of the agriculture sector in improving rural economy in Sudan. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:389&r=all |
| By: | Uwe Böwer |
| Abstract: | Lebanon’s new government was finally agreed in January 2019, after an almost 9-month deadlock over political representation.As much of the reform momentum stemming from an international investors’ conference in April 2018 has faded, the government is now facing the challenge to reinvigorate the reform agenda and make credible steps towards fiscal consolidation. While Lebanon has long been able to maintain a surprising level of resilience amidst high economic volatility and a tumultuous geopolitical environment, the pressure has been rising to tackle the large twin deficits, the very high level of public debt, and the protracted lack of competitiveness. As life-sustaining financial inflows have slowed down, Lebanon’s past business model has come under scrutiny. Substantial fiscal consolidation and a credible plan for growth-enhancing structural and governance reforms would play an important role in rebuilding investors’ confidence and pave the way for an economic recovery built on a solid foundation. Length: 20 pages |
| Keywords: | Lebanon, fiscal sustainability, external rebalancing, financial stability, growth, public sector governance, Böwer. |
| JEL: | E52 E62 F31 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:046&r=all |
| By: | Ismail Anil Talasli; Mehmet Erdal Yilmaz; Tuba Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, T.C. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanligi’nin uluslararasi sermaye piyasalarinda gerceklestirdigi ABD dolari cinsi tahvil faiz oraninin belirleyicileri incelenmektedir. Hazine’nin dis finansman kapsaminda uluslararasi sermaye piyasalarinda ihrac ettigi ABD dolari cinsi tahvil faiz oranini aciklayabilecek olasi degiskenler olarak, dis borclanma vadesi, ABD dolari Libor faiz orani, Turkiye’nin CDS primi, ABD devlet tahvili faiz orani ve VIX endeksi belirlenmistir. Seriler olusturulurken degiskenlerin Hazine’nin dis borclanmaya gittigi gunlerdeki degerleri kullanilmis, ABD devlet tahvil faiz oranlari serisi ise Hazine tahvil vadesine en yakin olan tahviller ile olusturulmustur. En kucuk kareler (EKK) yontemi ile elde edilen sonuclara gore, Amerikan tahvil faiz orani ve CDS degiskenlerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamli ciktigi gorulmektedir. Ayrica, degiskenlerin katsayilarinin zaman icerisindeki seyrini izleyebilmek amaciyla tum degiskenlerin yer aldigi zamana gore degisen parametreler (TVP) modeli tahmin edilmistir. [EN] This study investigates the determinants of the yield on Turkish Treasury’s US dollar-denominated bond. External debt maturities, US dollar Libor interest rate, Turkey's CDS premium, the US Treasury yields and the VIX index are determined as potential explanatory variables in our model. The values of the variables on dates when the Turkish Treasury issued a US dollar bond in international markets are taken, while the yields on US Treasury bonds are formed with the bonds being the closest to Turkish international bonds’ maturities. According to our estimations obtained by using least square estimation, the US Treasury bond yields and Turkey’s CDS premium are found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, time-varying parametersmodel including all variables determined is generated in order to examine changes in the parameters over time. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2013&r=all |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac; Ibrahim Ozbek; Irem Talasli |
| Abstract: | [TR] Finansal varliklarin fiyatlarinda oynakliga ve belirsizlige yol acan onemli faktorlerden birisi varliklarin piyasa likiditesidir. Varliklarin piyasa likiditesindeki oynaklik fiyatlarina yansiyarak merkez bankalari ve yatirim kuruluslarinin finansal varliklardan bilgi cikarimini zorlastirmaktadir. Bu kapsamda, varliklarin likiditesine iliskin gelismelerin takip edilmesi onem arz etmektedir. Bu amaca yonelik olarak, mevcut calismada Turkiye tahvil ve doviz swap piyasalari icin Ocak 2011-Nisan 2019 tarihleri arasinda gunluk olarak likidite gostergeleri hesaplanmaktadir. Soz konusu gostergeler, tek bir finansal varlik yerine ayni varlik sinifinda islem goren veya kote edilen tum urunlerin fiyatlarindaki bilgiler kullanilarak turetilmektedir. Elde edilen likidite gostergelerinin tarihsel seyri likidite kosullarinin yuksek oynaklik donemlerinde daha hizli bozulduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, benzer yapidaki iki varlik sinifi icin gostergelerin turetilmesi de likidite kosullarindaki bozulmanin genele yayildigina ya da tek bir varlik sinifina ozel olup olmadigina dair bilgi sunmaktadir. Turetilen likidite gostergelerinin piyasada yaygin olarak kullanilan likidite gostergeleriyle uyumlu seyrettigi ve soz konusu gostergelerin tahvil ve doviz swap piyasalarinda piyasa likiditesine iliskin benzesme ve farklilasmalari takip etmeye olanak taniyacagi degerlendirilmektedir.Finansal varliklarin fiyatlarinda oynakliga ve belirsizlige yol acan onemli faktorlerden birisi varliklarin piyasa likiditesidir. Varliklarin piyasa likiditesindeki oynaklik fiyatlarina yansiyarak merkez bankalari ve yatirim kuruluslarinin finansal varliklardan bilgi cikarimini zorlastirmaktadir. Bu kapsamda, varliklarin likiditesine iliskin gelismelerin takip edilmesi onem arz etmektedir. Bu amaca yonelik olarak, mevcut calismada Turkiye tahvil ve doviz swap piyasalari icin Ocak 2011-Nisan 2019 tarihleri arasinda gunluk olarak likidite gostergeleri hesaplanmaktadir. Soz konusu gostergeler, tek bir finansal varlik yerine ayni varlik sinifinda islem goren veya kote edilen tum urunlerin fiyatlarindaki bilgiler kullanilarak turetilmektedir. Elde edilen likidite gostergelerinin tarihsel seyri likidite kosullarinin yuksek oynaklik donemlerinde daha hizli bozulduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, benzer yapidaki iki varlik sinifi icin gostergelerin turetilmesi de likidite kosullarindaki bozulmanin genele yayildigina ya da tek bir varlik sinifina ozel olup olmadigina dair bilgi sunmaktadir. Turetilen likidite gostergelerinin piyasada yaygin olarak kullanilan likidite gostergeleriyle uyumlu seyrettigi ve soz konusu gostergelerin tahvil ve doviz swap piyasalarinda piyasa likiditesine iliskin benzesme ve farklilasmalari takip etmeye olanak taniyacagi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Assets’ market liquidity is one of the important factors that cause volatility and uncertainty in the prices of financial assets. The volatility of asset market liquidity is reflected into their prices, thus making it harder for central banks and investment institutions to extract information from financial assets. Therefore, monitoring developments in assets’ liquidity is important. To this end,this study measures daily liquidity indicators for the Turkishbond and foreign currency swap markets between the January 2011 and April 2019 period. Instead of using a single financial asset, the indicator is derived by utilizing the prices of all products traded or quoted in the same asset class.The historical course of the calculated liquidity indicators shows that the liquidity conditions deteriorate more rapidly in high volatility periods. In addition, the derivation of liquidity indicators for two similar asset classes provides information on whether the deterioration in liquidity conditions are spread or specific to a single asset class. It is evaluated that the derived liquidity indicators are in line with the liquidity indicators commonly used in the market and that these indicators will facilitate monitoring the similarities and differences between the market liquidity in bond and foreign exchange swap markets. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2014&r=all |