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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Fateh Belaid (Lille Catholic University) |
| Abstract: | This article, using ERF-LIS harmonized microdata, develops an empirical model to investigate the unexplored extent and fuel poverty explanatory factors in Egypt and Jordan. First, we use the “Low income – High Consumption” indicator to measure the fuel poverty extent. Second, we implement a multivariate statistical approach to untangle the fuel poor household profile. Then,to explore the factors driving the risk of falling into fuel poverty situations we use a logistic regression model. This research is an important empirical contribution to the sparse literature of fuel vulnerability in MENA countries. It puts forward an empirical approach, which is helpful in discerning and targeting families most in need of energy and financial related assistance. From policy perspectives, the findings provide promising ways of accounting for the fuel poverty phenomenon as a vector of inequality trends in the MENA region. The main findings of the research point to the crucial instrumental role of economic conditions, reducing inequalities and access to education facilities in attenuating fuel poverty in Egypt and Jordan. Policies that mitigate fuel poverty may thus have direct impacts on both well-being and inequalities reduction. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1392&r=all |
| By: | Reham Rizk (The British University in Egypt); Ronia Hawash (Butler University) |
| Abstract: | Education inequality has always been a concern for policy makers due to its long-term and intergenerational impacts. This paper examines the determinants and the sources of education inequality among the youth in the MENA region using harmonized income and expenditure surveys. More attention is given to income and regional disparities as source of education inequality. The paper makes use of the Recentered Influence Functions (RIF) unconditional regression techniques to examine youth education inequality measured by years of schooling and to identify the determinants of Gini index of education across countries. The findings show that higher household income reduces education inequality among youth in Iraq and higher education expenditure reduces education inequality for youth in both Egypt and Iraq. Health expenditure is found to be having insignificant impact on education inequality for youth in all countries. Moreover, increasing the number of earners in the household reduce education inequality in both Jordan and Palestine and increases youth education inequality in Iraq and Egypt. It has been also deduced that rural regions are at a disadvantage in terms of educational attainment and educational inequality in comparison to urban regions across all countries and all income quartiles. The decomposition of rich-poor education inequality, reveals that the education gap among youth appear to increase for the poor compared to the rich. Finally, there is a declining trend in youth educational inequality over time for Egypt and Iraq. However, the gap seems to be widening for Jordan and Palestine. |
| Date: | 2020–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1394&r=all |
| By: | Asena Caner (TOBB University of Economics and Technology); Deniz Karaoglan (Gebze Technical University); Gülbiye Yasar (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | Health service utilization in early childhood is crucial. It is often observed that children from low-resource households lack sufficient access to health services. We investigate whether the family medicine system introduced as part of the Turkish Health Transformation Program equalized utilization of health services between young children from low- and high-resource households. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we compare the change in service utilization over time between the two groups of children, using official nationally representative microdata from the Health Research Surveys in 2008, 2010, and 2012. We study a set of measures of service utilization and alternative indicators of household resources. Moreover, we test the common trends assumption. Overall, the effect of the reform depends on the measure of utilization. Considering ‘being taken to a health institution’ as the measure, we find no evidence for a positive differential effect on children from low-resource households. On the other hand, considering ‘being taken to a health institution when not sick’, the reform benefited children from lower-resource households more than it benefited better-off children. The evidence for having newborn screening is weak. Regarding the utilization of family health centers, we find no evidence for a positive differential effect for lower-resource households. |
| Date: | 2020–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1399&r=all |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | I argue in this paper that although recent developments had temporarily reduced demographic pressures on the Egyptian labor market, such pressures will return with a vengeance in the next decade. The sizable echo generation born between 2006 and 2014 is the reflection of the large youth bulge generation born in the early 1980s; a reflection that was further compounded by rising fertility rates in the late 2000s and early 2010s. As the echo generation reaches working age, the net annual increase to the labor force will rise from 575 thousand per year in 2020-25 to 800 thousand in 2030-35, which will pose a major job creation challenge. This upcoming wave of new entrants will also be substantially more educated, with 50-60% having secondary or postsecondary education, and another third having university education or higher. To accommodate this upcoming growth in labor supply and absorb the stock of existing unemployed and discouraged workers, I estimate that employment growth would have to reach 2.7% per year, something that would require sustained GDP growth rates in excess of 6% per year. The quality of jobs created by the Egyptian economy would also have to improve substantially to satisfy the higher aspirations of the increasingly educated new entrants and curtail the rising rates of discouragement among female new entrants. |
| Date: | 2020–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1398&r=all |
| By: | Nicolò Bird (IPC-IG); Wesley Silva (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the factors that limit transitions to decent work remains a central concern for policymakers, as changes in the world of work considerably affect the availability and distribution of quality jobs. Many of these global issues are mirrored in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This report by the IPC-IG and UNICEF MENARO focuses on the role of social protection to promote transitions to work for young people in MENA, especially among vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | labour market policies; youth transition to work; MENA; social protection; poverty reduction |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:42&r=all |
| By: | Nicolò Bird (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the factors that limit transitions to decent work remains a central concern for policymakers, as changes in the world of work considerably affect the availability and distribution of quality jobs. Many of these global issues are mirrored in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This One Pager is a snapshot of a report by the IPC-IG and UNICEF MENARO, which focuses on the role of social protection to promote transitions to work for young people in MENA, especially among vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | labour market policies; youth transition to work; MENA; social protection |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:oparab:456&r=all |
| By: | Ioannis Bournakis (Middlesex University); Mona Said (American University in Cairo); Antonio Savoia (University of Manchester); Francesco Savoia (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Income distribution is seen as instrumental to human development and to a number of development outcomes through a variety of channels. It is also considered important in itself, as testified by its inclusion in the Sustainable Development Goals. Yet existing research on income inequality in developing economies has not devoted much attention to the regional dimension. This is important, as progress in reducing income inequality at national level on SDG Goal 10 is only a partial success if a country presents large regional variation, where very unequal regions coexist alongside relatively equal ones. This paper contributes to fill this gap by offering a case study on Egypt, and adds to our knowledge of income inequality in the Arab region, an area that has not seen extensive empirical analysis. Using newly assembled data by LIS and a range of inequality measures, the paper shows that there has generally been an increase in income inequality during 1999-2015 and finds evidence of unconditional convergence in income distribution across Egyptian Governorates. This result implies that income inequality in less unequal regions grows faster than in more equal regions, regardless of regional characteristics. Second, the speed of convergence has not been uniform: sustained for most regions, but significantly slower or even lacking for some regions. Finally, convergence across regions has been significant also for the bottom forty per cent and proportion of people living below 50% median income, implying that maintaining this convergence process will be an important policy avenue to guarantee that progress on SDG 10 will be geographically widespread, achieving shared prosperity at both the national and regional level. |
| Date: | 2020–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1400&r=all |
| By: | Ghada Barsoum (The American University in Cairo); Dina Abdalla (Economic Researcher) |
| Abstract: | The public sector in Egypt provides relatively generous benefits, particularly when compared to the working conditions in informal private sector employment. For this reason, it has been described as the employer of choice among youth in Egypt. This paper updates the analysis on this issue by exploring the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) 2018 data. Focusing on those employed in the public sector, the paper compares three age groups. The analysis over time shows that the public sector is becoming more educated, slightly more feminized, and is aging. Women, however, have not reached gender parity in public sector employment, despite a slight increase in their proportion among more recent cohorts. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1386&r=all |
| By: | Amal Hamada (Cairo University); Melike Sökmen (Independent researcher); Chahir Zaki (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | Libya has been in continuous civil conflict with varying intensity since the Arab uprisings in 2011. It has suffered from recurrent cycles of social, political, security and economic crises, each reinforcing one another. State institutions and the economy have weakened thus facilitating fragmentation, disunity and dysfunction, creating fertile grounds for violence and a war-driven economy. The regional and international powers have been adding to the complexities of the conflict and the difficulties of its resolving. Against this background, this paper aims to analyze the social, political and economic dynamics of Libya from the local to the regional and international levels since the start of the uprisings, and understand the interplay between these forces. It aims to look at three issues: (1) the underlying causes of conflict, (2) why the conflict has sustained and (3) the political and economic agenda for post-conflict reconstruction. In other words, it aims to bring forward an inclusive agenda of peace-building and economic reconstruction, in line with the dynamics of the country. |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1383&r=all |
| By: | Ahmed Mohamed Ezzat (Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport) |
| Abstract: | Despite the distributive effects of government policies are linked to many macroeconomic variables, the effects on real exchange rate (RER) were relatively neglected. Additionally, estimating the differences between the two tails changes of income inequality in affecting RER has relatively little attention. Theoretically, two main intermediaries for income inequality to affect RER are addressed: economic growth and relative prices of non-traded goods (hereafter denoted by non-tradables) to traded goods (hereafter denoted by tradables). Empirically, the relationship can be positive or negative. In this paper, a dynamic panel model is estimated using macroeconomic data for MENA and North Mediterranean region. The paper proved that inequality is of main determinants of RER. Moreover, both of changes in the right-tail inequality and the left-tail inequality are effectively affecting RER in opposite directions. Also, having different initial income levels between economies lead to differentials in the effects of inequality on RER. All of these require greater cautiousness when dealing with income inequality especially if it is used as a tool to encourage growth and encouraging the competitiveness of domestic products. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1389&r=all |
| By: | Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir (Haredi Institute for Policy Studies, Israel); Eran Yashiv (Tel Aviv University, CReAM (UCL), and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | The Arab population in Israel constitutes an ethnic minority, at around 20% of the population. The economy of this minority is characterized by inferior outcomes relative to the Jewish majority by all indicators, including employment, wages, occupational status, social welfare, education, and housing. This paper reviews key data facts and presents a model of barriers to integration facing Arabs in Israel, taking it to the data. The empirical analysis, based on a general equilibrium model of occupational choice with optimizing agents and barriers, points to an increase over time in barriers to the acquisition of human capital in highly skilled occupations, and, concurrently, a reduction in labor market barriers in all occupations. The analysis offers insights relevant to other developed economies with large ethnic minorities. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2011&r=all |
| By: | Chennak, Ahmed |
| Keywords: | International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea20:304493&r=all |
| By: | Björn Nilsson (Université Paris-Saclay); Racha Ramadan (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to quantify the effects from migration on net income distributions, disentangling the roles played by factor reallocation and remittances, and focusing on two (primarily) destination countries (Spain and Italy) and two (primarily) origin countries (Jordan and Iraq). Using LIS-ERF data sets for the four countries; the paper relies separately on a variant of a shift-share instrument to identify the effect of migration on inequalities at the regional level in Spain and Italy, and on quantile regression to estimate the impact of receiving remittances on per capita expenditure in Iraq and Jordan. The results suggest that migration increases inequality in both origin and receiving countries. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1390&r=all |
| By: | Salah Abosedra (American University in the Emirates); Ali Fakih (Lebanese American University); Nathir Haimoun (University of Lethbridge) |
| Abstract: | While most civil wars seem to have an economic basis, they are generally pushed by political, ethnic, and religious differences. This paper attempts to identify the drivers of the Syrian civil war of 2011 by investigating the role of ethnic divisions in starting a conflict. We integrate a variety of variables such as excluded population, power-sharing, anocracy, ethnic groups in addition to a number of economic factors. The main results indicate that ethnicity does not seem to be a very important factor in starting both the civil and ethnic conflict in Syria, but it shows that the lack of power-sharing to be the most significant factor. Therefore, where power in Syria was not inclusive and shared among different demographic segments, such as religious or urban groups, it created upheavals between different groups, as some groups disidentify with the state, paving the way to causing the conflict. Economic factors also provide an explanation of the onset of conflicts in Syria. The paper offers detailed policy suggestions that could serve as a recovery mechanism for the Syrian crisis and a preventive measurement for its reoccurrence. |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1384&r=all |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Elbadawi (Economic Research Forum); Samir Makdisi |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the development experiences of the six GCC countries, which managed to avoid the explicit consequences of the resource curse. This seems to defy the prediction of the received literature for resource endowed societies that lack political institutions for ensuring inclusiveness and accountability in managing the resource rents. We subscribe to the argument that the unusually high rents per capita of the scale available for the GCC seems to have been associated with a developmental, if non-democratic, political equilibrium. However, the dependence of the GCC political set and consequently its development model, on the availability of exorbitantly high rents per capita, is likely to complicate the prospects for future sustainability, particularly under the new emerging ‘global oil order’, which is expected to be characterized by an eventual low oil price equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2020–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1382&r=all |
| By: | Kamiar Mohaddes (University of Cambridge); Mehdi Raissi (International Monetary Fund); Niranjan Sarangi (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)) |
| Abstract: | We develop a quarterly macro-econometric model for the Saudi economy over the period 1981Q2- 2018Q2 and integrate it within a compact model of the world economy (including the global oil market). This framework enables us to disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of growth shocks originating from the United States, China and the world economy to Saudi Arabia, as well as study the implications of stress in global financial markets, low oil prices and domestic fiscal adjustment on the Saudi economy. Results show that Saudi Arabia's economy is more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the United States—in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and China's growing role in the global oil market. A global growth slowdown (e.g., from trade tensions or geopolitical developments) could have significant implications for Saudi Arabia (with a growth elasticity of about 2½ after one year) and the oil market (reducing prices by about 5 percent for 0.5 percentage point reduction in global growth). We also illustrate that a 10 percent lower oil prices and stress in global financial markets could both have a negative effect on the Saudi economy, but given the prevailing social contract in Saudi Arabia, their impact is countered by fiscal easing. Finally, we argue that a domestic fiscal adjustment in Saudi Arabia does not show a negative impact on economic growth in the data. The impact on growth would depend upon the quality of fiscal adjustment and whether it is complemented with structural reforms or not. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1388&r=all |
| By: | Bassam Yousif (Indiana State University); Rabeh Morrar (An-Najah National University); Omar El-Joumayle (Independent scholar) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the causes of the Iraqi economy’s difficulties in rebuilding, provision of basic services and generally declining performance over the last decades. In contrast to accounts that lay stress on Iraq’s statist past, we argue that the sustained decline in formal institutions and human capabilities is the best explanation for Iraq’s economic decline. That is, weakened political institutions and restricted political space in the 1970s and 1980s along with protracted economic sanctions in the 1990s facilitated conflict and damaged Iraq’s developmental institutions and structures. Moreover, the US, when it occupied Iraq in 2003, relegated many of the existing, if deficient and imperfect, institutions and promoted policies that worked against the established political economy, aggravating conflict and instability. Consequently, broken institutions have remained unrepaired, while new institutions that the US created, with the help of new Iraqi elites, often proved fragile. In addition to select microeconomic interventions, we recommend policies that more dependably and equitably distribute oil rents, such as a universal basic income. Our recommendations thus contrast sharply with approaches that emphasize a reduced role for the state. The aim is to facilitate development of institutions and human capabilities under conditions of lowered conflict and greater stability, a binding constraint on development |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1387&r=all |
| By: | Mouyad Alsamara (Qatar University); Zouhair Mrabet (Qatar University); Ahmad Shikh Ebid (UN ESCWA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, consumer prices and parallel market exchange rate in the Syrian economy during the period 1990-2017. We provide a comprehensive analysis for the macroeconomic policies and performance in the pre-conflict and during the conflict periods. For this purpose, we employ two advanced estimation approaches, namely, nonlinear ARDL and Structural VAR. these techniques are very useful to estimate how real GDP has reacted to shocks stemming from three major macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer prices, and parallel exchange rate market. The empirical results indicate that the responses of real GDP to negative shocks in money supply are greater than its responses to positive shocks in money supply during the conflict period. Moreover, we distinguish four different scenario for money supply as possible views of rebuilding scenarios. The achievement of this scenario depends on the political settlement agreement and the size of capital inflow into the economy. |
| Date: | 2020–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1385&r=all |
| By: | Fatima-Zahra Aazi; Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Youssef Bouazizi; Safia Fekkaklouhail; Marouane Ikira; Hicham Masmoudi (UMR_S 633 - Therapie Cellulaire en Pathologie Cardio-Vasculaire - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Fouzi Mourji (FSAC - Faculté des Sciences Aïn Chock [Casablanca] - UH2MC - Université Hassan II [Casablanca]); Zineb Nahmed; Meriem Oudmane; Yasser Tamsamani |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02925418&r=all |
| By: | Nicolò Bird (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | Entender os fatores que limitam as transições para trabalhos decentes ainda é uma das principais preocupações para elaboradores de políticas, na medida em que mudanças no mundo do trabalho afetam, consideravelmente, a disponibilidade e a distribuição de trabalhos de qualidade. Muitas dessas questões globais são espelhadas no Oriente Médio e Norte da à frica (MENA). Este One Pager apresenta um relatório elaborado pelo IPC-IG e UNICEF MENARO, que analisa o papel da proteção social na promoção da transição ao trabalho para jovens na região MENA, especialmente aqueles em grupos vulneráveis. |
| Keywords: | políticas do mercado de trabalho; transição dos jovens ao trabalho; MENA; proteção social |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opport:456&r=all |