nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒09‒28
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Effect of Hosting 3.4 Million Refugees on the Health System in Turkey and Infant, Child, and Elderly Mortality among Natives By Aygün, Aysun; Kirdar, Murat G.; Tuncay, Berna
  2. Does Asymmetric Nonlinear Approach Explain the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Trade of Iran? By Mahdi Ghodsi; Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Robert Stehrer
  3. Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey By Bilgin, Cevat
  4. Energy Consumption, Capital Investment and Environmental Degradation: The African Experience By Ekundayo P. Mesagan; Chidi N. Olunkwa
  6. Pour un environnement institutionnel et financier favorable à l’investissement par les jeunes dans l’agriculture et les systèmes alimentaires en Tunisie By Yannick Fiedler; Mohamed Elloumi; Abdallah Ben Saad; Emna Ouertani; Arbia Labidi
  7. Les énergies renouvelables au Maroc : un chantier de Règne By Henri-Louis Vedie

  1. By: Aygün, Aysun (Istanbul Technical University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University); Tuncay, Berna (Koc University)
    Abstract: As of the end of 2017, 3.4 million Syrian refugees lived in Turkey. These refugees left a country where the health system was completely broken. Several studies report that Syrian refugees faced numerous diseases during their exodus, brought certain infectious diseases to the hosting communities, and have a high incidence of health care utilization. Moreover, they have much higher fertility rates than natives (5.3 to 2.3). We examine the effect of Syrian refugees on the health infrastructure in Turkey and on natives' mortality—with a focus on infant, child, and elderly mortality. Our OLS results yield suggestive evidence of a negative effect of the refugee shock on infant and child mortality. However, we find that this is a result of endogenous settlement patterns of refugees. Once we account for the endogeneity using a plausibly exogenous instrument, we find no evidence of an effect on native mortality for any age group. We also analyze the pressure that the refugees put on the health care services in Turkey, as well as the government's response, to understand our findings on mortality outcomes.
    Keywords: refugees, health care infrastructure, native mortality, infant, child, elderly, instrumental variables
    JEL: H51 I18 J13 J15 O15
    Date: 2020–08
  2. By: Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mohammad Sharif Karimi; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Until 2012, Iran had been using policy to stabilise the rial’s exchange rate and, given a persistent current-account surplus, had accumulated sizeable currency reserves. In 2012, however, international sanctions against Iran intensified and the exchange rate doubled against the US dollar. Since then Iran followed a policy differentiating between a market rate and an official rate applied by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) to major imports. In recent years, as sanctions have cut access to foreign reserves, the gap between the two rates has been widening substantially. Given these important changes in the exchange rate regime, this paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in Iran over the period 1997 2017. For this purpose, an asymmetric model is used, as the speed of the effects of changes in the exchange rate can be asymmetric. The results of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) indicate that this is indeed the case. Results are generally consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition an exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance, whereas an appreciation worsens it. However, the trade balance reacts more strongly in the short run to depreciations of the rial than to appreciations. Although the government could improve the trade balance in the short run easily through currency depreciation, policy-makers should in the longer run promote non-oil exports to reduce dependency on oil and to diversify the economy.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, Trade balance, asymmetric, NARDL, Iranian rial
    JEL: F14 F30 F40
    Date: 2020–09
  3. By: Bilgin, Cevat
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the selected sectoral exports of Turkey’s manufacturing industry in the context of nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model (NARDL). NARDL method includes short-run and long-run coefficient estimates and embraces the asymmetric effects. The previous studies generally used the linear models on the aggregated data and they offered ambiguous results. The latest studies have preferred to use the method of NARDL on the bilateral trade balance data. Instead of using bilateral data, this paper considers the data of sectoral exports, specifically the exports of the selected Turkey’s manufacturing sectors. The estimated NARDL models supply the empirical information about the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on the sectoral exports. Results from the model for each sector provide the evidence indicating that the depreciation and appreciation of the domestic currency have asymmetric significant effects on the sectoral exports.
    Keywords: Real exchange rate, Sectoral Export, Nonlinear Cointegration, Asymmetric Effects
    JEL: C13 C51 C52 F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Ekundayo P. Mesagan (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria); Chidi N. Olunkwa (University of Lagos, Nigeria)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of energy consumption and capital investment on environmental degradation in selected African countries between 1981 and 2017 using panel cointegration approaches. The Fully Modified and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares results affirm that energy consumption positively affects carbon emissions in Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco, and in the panel. At the same time, both also confirm that capital investment positively and significantly impacts carbon emissions in the region. Again, results show that capital investment augments energy use to reduce carbon emissions in Africa significantly. This implies that capital investment can provide needed impetus to reduce environmental degradation in the continent. The study, therefore, recommends that African countries should focus on energy conservation policies to reduce the adverse effect of energy use on carbon emissions.
    Keywords: Electricity Consumption, Capital investment, Environmental Degradation, Africa
    JEL: Q40 Q42 Q43 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2020–01
  5. By: Dilsah Busra Kartal (Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakif University, Istanbul)
    Abstract: According to Article 187 of the Turkish Civil Code, a married woman must change her surname upon marriage. The article only provides a married woman with the right to bear her own surname before the surname of her husband. This rule is not only in conflict with the Turkish Constitution but also with the international agreements to which Turkey became a party. The Turkish courts have changed their application of Article 187 in the last years. Practically, Article 187 is considered void by the courts but there is no amendment to the article so far. Even though the courts do not apply Article 187, administrative authorities adhere to it. Therefore, a woman who does not wish to bear a family name is forced to file a lawsuit to use this right. Unless Article 187 is amended, the problem cannot be fully solved. There are some amendment proposals but none of them are satisfying.
    Keywords: Surname of Married Women, Incorporeal Personality, Gender Equality, Turkish Family Law, Effects of a Marriage, Family Name, Surname
    JEL: K36 K41 K10
  6. By: Yannick Fiedler (Centre de recherches internationales); Mohamed Elloumi (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie (INRAT)); Abdallah Ben Saad (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie (INRAT)); Emna Ouertani (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie (INRAT)); Arbia Labidi (Food and Agriculture Organization (ONU) (FAO))
    Abstract: En Tunisie, le taux de chômage des jeunes de 15 à 35 ans est très élevé, se situant autour de 35 pour cent, chez les diplômés du supérieur des régions de l’intérieur et en milieu rural, ce qui pousse un nombre important à l’exode et à l’émigration souvent au péril de leur vie. Par ailleurs, les régions de l’intérieur à dominante agricole et rurale accusent le plus grand retard de développement. Caractérisé par un vieillissement de la population des chefs d’exploitation et un faible niveau d’innovations techniques et organisationnelles, le secteur agricole peine à faire face aux défis de la stagnation de la croissance de la productivité, des changements climatiques et de la libéralisation des marchés des produits agricoles. Plusieurs initiatives visant à stimuler l’investissement dans les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire ont d’ores et déjà été lancées afin de répondre à ces défis. Cependant, tous ces efforts n'ont pas entrainé l'amélioration nette des investissements dans le secteur agricole escomptée, et la part des investissements par les jeunes agri-entrepreneurs reste nettement en dessous des attentes. Des efforts concertés et substantiels s’imposent ainsi pour stimuler des investissements permettant de dynamiser les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire, et répondre aux attentes des jeunes en leur offrant des opportunités entrepreneuriales et d’emploi. Sur une requête du Ministère de l’agriculture, de la pêche et des ressources hydrauliques, la FAO, le Laboratoire d’Economie Rurale de l’INRAT et l’Agence de Promotion des Investissements Agricoles ont élaboré, de façon concertée avec les jeunes, une feuille de route pour promouvoir et pérenniser les investissements des jeunes agri-entrepreneurs. Ce policy brief résume les principaux défis identifiés et les solutions qui ont été validées par les parties prenantes tunisiennes, et s'articule autour de cinq axes: 1) Mettre en place un cadre de dispositifs, services et incitations financiers pour les jeunes agri-entrepreneurs; 2) Renforcer les actions de vulgarisation, de formation et de coaching; 3) Améliorer la communication et l’accès a l’information; 4) Garantir une meilleure coordination entre les différents acteurs et interventions; et 5) Renforcer la compétitivité et l’attractivité des filières.
    Keywords: entrepreneurs; agriculture; food systems; investment; Tunisia
    Date: 2020–09–10
  7. By: Henri-Louis Vedie
    Abstract: Le Royaume du Maroc, dépourvu de pétrole et de gaz, s'est tourné, dès 1960, vers les énergies renouvelables, privilégiant alors l'hydroélectricité et la construction de barrages. Pour autant, l'essentiel des centrales électriques du pays était et demeure alimenté en gazole ou en gaz, impactant lourdement sa balance des paiements. Depuis, la demande d'électricité n'a cessé de croitre, d'une part, du fait du développement du pays et, d'autre part, suite au recours à des désalinisateurs, fort consommateurs d'énergie électrique, pour répondre à des besoins en eau potable qui ne cessent, eux aussi, d'augmenter. Depuis 2009, à l'initiative du Roi Mohammed VI, les énergies renouvelables sont devenues un chantier de règne, avec l'objectif de représenter 42% de l'électricité produite, horizon 2020. Pour y parvenir, trois filières vont être mises à contribution, à part égale, de 14% : la filière hydroélectrique, la filière éolienne et la filière solaire. Cette étude montre que cet objectif devrait être atteint au prix d'investissements considérables, privilégiant les technologies de dernière génération. Et au-delà de ce succès statistique, c'est aussi l'apprentissage d'un savoir-faire, particulièrement dans le domaine solaire et éolien, que le Maroc va pouvoir exporter, et une réussite qui doit donner espoir aux économies émergeantes, dépourvues d'énergies fossiles, en quête de développement et développement durable.
    Date: 2020–02

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