nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒06‒08
sixteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa
  1. Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen By Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; Wiebelt, Manfred
  2. Managing Crisis within International Joint Ventures Insights from the case of Délice-Danone during the Arab Spring in Tunisia By Fadia Korbi; Karim Ben Slimane; Dora Triki
  3. The effect of the epidemic between the Malthus perspective and the revival of economic growth for some countries in North Africa and the Middle East By Abderraouf Mtiraoui; Hassen Khémiri
  4. Changing Energy Supply Economics in Saudi Arabia in the Context of Global Transitions By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  5. Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks By Ketenci, Natalya; Aydoğan, Ebru Tomris
  6. Empirical evidence on the long and short run determinants of health expenditure in the Arab world By Karim Barkat; Raschid Sbia; Youcef Maouchi
  7. Environmental pollution and economic growth elasticities of maritime and air transportations in Iran By Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Agheli, Lotfali; Assari Arani, Abbas; Nodehi, Mehrab; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil
  8. Finance Between Islamic Ethics, Conventional Reality and Economic Growth in the MENA Region By Abderraouf Mtiraoui; Feriel Gabsi
  9. Strategies for sustainable upgrading in global value chains: The Egyptian textile and apparel sector By Grumiller, Jan; Raza, Werner G.; Grohs, Hannes
  10. The impact of COVID-19 on Tunisia’s economy, agri-food system, and households By ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens
  11. Nuclear Energy of Turkey in the context of the Russian experience. By Ketenci, Natalya
  12. The business of recycling war scrap: the Hashd al-Shaʿabi’s role in Mosul’s post-conflict economy By Gotts, Isadora
  13. A stochastic dominance test under survey nonresponse with an application to comparing trust levels in Lebanese public institutions By Fakih, Ali; Makdissi, Paul; Marrouch, Walid; Tabri, Rami V.; Yazbeck, Myra
  14. Changing Energy Supply Economics in Saudi Arabia in the Context of Global Transitions By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  15. Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model By Jorge Blazquez; Marzio Galeotti; Baltasar Manzano; Axel Pierru; Shreekar Pradhan
  16. دراسة بعض العوامل الاقتصادية والسياسية على سعر الصرف الدينار العراقي خلال الفترة(2004-2018 By فرج, ماردين محسوم
  1. By: Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; Wiebelt, Manfred
    Abstract: Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.
    Keywords: YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, YEMEN, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, models, uncertainty, conflicts, reconstruction, poverty, trade, economic growth, employment, gross national product, economy-wide modeling, post-conflict reconstruction, poverty reduction
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:29&r=all
  2. By: Fadia Korbi; Karim Ben Slimane (REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, ISC Paris - Institut Supérieur du Commerce de Paris); Dora Triki (ESCE, International Business School - ESCE)
    Abstract: Much of the extant literature attends to the question of how governance mechanisms are set and implemented in order to ensure international joint-ventures (IJV) performance. However, there is much to be told on particular organizational phenomena and situations that IJV can go through such as: Crisis. Crisis are unanticipated and unpredictable situations that paralyze organizations in a given period of time and threaten their survival. Successful crisis management requires the bricolage and the implementation of emerging new organizational practices and managerial processes. This paper aims at addressing the question of how IJV partners navigate through crisis and how new governance mechanisms emerge and are implemented in order to protect the assets of both partners and to ensure the continuity of the IJV. Our findings are built on the insight derived from a single case study of an IJV located in Tunisia that went through the Arab Spring crisis. Our empirical analysis show that: (1) creating ad hoc structures, (2) strengthening partners' commitment and (3) the emergence of transitional leadership helped going through the crisis of Arab Spring and moreover, ensured the continuity of the IJV Délice-Danone in Tunisia.
    Keywords: Arab Spring,International joint venture,Crisis management
    Date: 2019–06–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02568493&r=all
  3. By: Abderraouf Mtiraoui (Université de Sousse); Hassen Khémiri
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the rate of demographic growth through epidemics and economic growth to verify the Malthus perspective on the one hand. And on the other hand, this work follows a methodology describing a comparative analysis between the effect of two types of population with and without pessimism of Malthus on the economic growth rate of GDP per capita over the last five years as cut data cross-section for some countries in North Africa and the Middle East.
    Abstract: Le but de ce papier est d'étudier la relation entre le taux de croissance de démographique à travers d'épidémie sur la croissance économique pour vérifier l'optique Malthus d'une part. Et d'autre part, ce travail suit une méthodologie décrivant une analyse comparative entre l'effet deux types de population avec et sans pessimisme de Malthus sur le taux de croissance économique du PIB par tête sur une période de derniers cinq ans comme des données coupe transversale pour quelques pays de Nord d'Afrique et Moyen Orient. Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the rate of demographic growth through epidemics and economic growth to verify the Malthus perspective on the one hand. And on the other hand, this work follows a methodology describing a comparative analysis between the effect of two types of population with and without pessimism of Malthus on the economic growth rate of GDP per capita over the last five years as cut data cross-section for some countries in North Africa and the Middle East.
    Keywords: Panel estimation,Growth,Pessimism of Malthus,Croissance,Estimation de panel,Pessimisme de Malthus,Population
    Date: 2020–05–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02560741&r=all
  4. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This is Workshop Brief reports on the insights derived from roundtable deliberations that focused on how to establish a well-functioning cross-border electricity market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region.
    Keywords: Electricity demand, Electricity transition, Utility sector reform
    Date: 2020–05–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2020-wb07&r=all
  5. By: Ketenci, Natalya; Aydoğan, Ebru Tomris
    Abstract: Sustainable economic growth is a continuous increase in environmentally adjusted net domestic product (Bartelmus, 1994). This study investigates the role of natural gas consumption and trade openness in the economic growth of Turkey for the period 1977-2017. Turkey underwent several political and economic shocks during this period. Therefore, the paper employs the Kejriwal and Perron (2010) structural break test to investigate the relationship between economic growth and its determinants in the presence of structural shifts. The outcomes underline the importance of breaks consideration in estimations since they provide detailed impacts of variables on economic growth through sub regimes.
    Keywords: Economic growth, natural gas consumption, energy use, cointegration, structural breaks, Turkey.
    JEL: O11 O47
    Date: 2019–09–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100077&r=all
  6. By: Karim Barkat (Qatar University); Raschid Sbia (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, Macro-Fiscal Department, Ministry of Finance); Youcef Maouchi (Qatar University)
    Abstract: This paper empirically examines the determinants of health care spending for 18 Arab world countries for the period 1995–2015 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We conducted the same estimations for 3 sub-samples, namely high-income, upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries to reduce the heterogeneity among them. Our empirical findings demonstrate that health care expenditure and its determinants are non-stationary, and revealed the existence of a long run relationship among variables. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that income is not the only driver of health expenditure in the Arab world countries in the long run. Other variables such as medical progress and ageing population are also playing an important role in the increase of health care expenditure with major policy implications for the region in the long run. Furthermore, the results support that health care expenditure is a necessity good for the three income groups. Finally, the Pairwise Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship between health care expenditures and income for the full sample, as well as for the groups income.
    Keywords: Health expenditure,Arab world,Panel cointegration,Panel causality
    Date: 2019–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01982309&r=all
  7. By: Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Agheli, Lotfali; Assari Arani, Abbas; Nodehi, Mehrab; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil
    Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of maritime and air transportation on the environment and economy of Iran. The authors specify two dynamic models of the environmental pollution and the economic growth. Then, the authors estimate the environmental and economic elasticities of maritime and air transportation in short run and long run in Iran during 1978–2012. Design/methodology/approach – The authors estimate the environmental and economic elasticities of maritime elasticities in short and long run, using simultaneous equations system. Findings – The findings indicate that the short- and long-run environmental pollution elasticities of maritime transportation are higher than those of the air ones. In addition, the economic growth elasticities are greater in the air transportation compared to maritime one. As a result, the maritime transportation is more pollutant and less productive in Iran in comparison with the air transportation. Originality/value – The policymakers are advised to improve the infrastructure of maritime transportation from both the environmental and economic point of views. Consequently, the air transportation is considered as a cleaner and more beneficial transportation mo
    Keywords: Iran, Economic growth
    JEL: O2 R41
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100101&r=all
  8. By: Abderraouf Mtiraoui (Université de Sousse); Feriel Gabsi
    Date: 2018–07–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02554666&r=all
  9. By: Grumiller, Jan; Raza, Werner G.; Grohs, Hannes
    Abstract: The promotion of sustainable value chains is on the rise in the EU, with important implications for textile and apparel (T&A) products. EU T&A supplier countries and firms will increasingly have to adapt to the new EU value chain and market dynamics. Based on a case study of the Egyptian T&A sector, this policy note argues that the required transformation of the industry will be highly demanding. EU development policy should increase support in order to promote sustainable value chains in the T&A sector in Egypt, but also in other MENA countries with export-oriented T&A sectors
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsep:332020&r=all
  10. By: ElKadhi, Zouhair; Elsabbagh, Dalia; Frija, Aymen; Lakoud, Thouraya; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis is expected to lead to a 46.4 percent decline in Tunisia’s GDP during the 2nd quarter of 2020 (April to June). The industrial sector will be hit hardest, with output falling by 52.7 percent, followed closely by services (-49.0 percent) and agriculture (-16.2 percent). These high losses are a result of the complete lockdown imposed in the country to contain the pandemic. Higher-income urban households will see the largest income losses, although lower-income urban households also will experience significant reductions in their income. As a policy response, social transfers towards poorer households will reduce the adverse welfare impact of these drops in household income. Government policies to support struggling businesses will allow economic activities to revive more rapidly when the lockdown loosens. Consequently, comprehensive planning by the Government of Tunisia to re-open the economy will be critical to reduce the pandemic’s adverse impact on the country’s economy in the longer-term, reducing losses of employment and income, especially in manufacturing and retail.
    Keywords: TUNISIA, AFRICA, NORTH AFRICA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, gross national product, economic impact, agrifood systems, households, employment, Covid-19, lockdown
    Date: 2020
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:5&r=all
  11. By: Ketenci, Natalya
    Abstract: Nuclear energy has become one of the widely discussed topics in Turkey due to the controversial points of view. Turkey is new to nuclear power; the construction of the first nuclear reactor started in April of 2018. Production of electricity in Turkey is highly dependent on imported energy sources. Continuously increasing energy prices and foreign energy supply reduce national energy security and undermine the sustainable economic growth of the country, whose exports heavily depend on foreign energy sources. Therefore; one of the solutions to decrease dependence on foreign energy sources for such an industrial country, as Turkey, is to produce nuclear energy. Opinions of specialists and the population are divided in controversial groups, where advantages and disadvantages of nuclear power oppose each other. This chapter analyses the usage of nuclear power in the world and reasons for countries, which have reduced or vice versa increased the implementation of nuclear energy. The Russian company conducts the construction of the first nuclear plant in Turkey, therefore history and experience of Russia in nuclear energy are analysed in this chapter. The discussion on benefits and weaknesses of Russian experiences and how they can be applied to new a Turkish nuclear industry conclude the chapter.
    Keywords: nuclear energy; Turkey; Russia
    JEL: Q37 Q43 Q5 Q50
    Date: 2019–12–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100074&r=all
  12. By: Gotts, Isadora
    Abstract: The modalities of the scrap trade reflect a larger struggle for power in post-ISIS Mosul, and how seemingly marginal processes can and will impact the future balance within the city. On the local level, the scrap trade has become a monopoly, disrupting the ability of residents to profit from this very lucrative material. By co-opting local economic processes, various actors stifled trade and reshaped the very ways in which economic activities are conducted. Reconstruction efforts have suffered as a result, with resources squandered and prices distorted. However, the normalisation of extractive and rent-seeking activities affects more than Mosul’s economy; it disrupts Iraq’s ability to diversify its economy through industrial growth. By co-opting trade networks and controlling mobility, the Hashd al-Shaʿabi (‘the Hashd’, or PMF) has expanded informal systems and processes, strengthening ties between the security, political, and economic elites seeking only to extract wealth. The Hashd’s involvement in the scrap trade, operating in juncture with local political support, are a symptom of a much larger condition – the pervasive culture of corruption in Iraq’s political and economic life. They simultaneously enable and operate in a system that breeds instability, hinders social, political and economic growth, and hinders attempts for recovery.
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2020–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104614&r=all
  13. By: Fakih, Ali; Makdissi, Paul; Marrouch, Walid; Tabri, Rami V.; Yazbeck, Myra
    Abstract: Stochastic dominance comparisons of distributions based on ordinal data arise in many areas of economics. This paper develops a testing procedure for such comparisons under survey sampling from large finite populations with nonresponse using the worst-case bounds of the distributions. The advantage of using these bounds in distributional comparisons is that conclusions are robust to the nature of the nonresponse-generating mechanism. While these bounds on the distributions are often too wide in practice, we show that they can be informative for distributional comparisons in an empirical analysis. This paper examines the dynamics of trust in Lebanese public institutions using the 2013 World Values Survey as well as the 2016 and 2018 waves of the Arab Barometer, and finds convincing evidence of a decrease in confidence in most public institutions between 2013 and 2016.
    Keywords: Empirical Likelihood; Stochastic Dominance Test; Ordinal Variables; Survey Nonresponse
    Date: 2020–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2020-05&r=all
  14. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Many factors, local and global, will impact Saudi Arabia’s electricity sector and energy markets. The Kingdom has committed to deploying a significant share of renewable energy by 2030 and is considering plans to add nuclear power to its energy mix. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is investing to increase its non-associated gas supply. Globally, oil prices and energy dynamics will be affected by many climate-related initiatives and regulations, such as the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules that impose switching to low-sulfur fuels to reduce sulfur emissions by over 80%. Accurate supply modeling also requires understanding and projecting demand. The Kingdom has only recently embarked on its energy price reform journey, and initiatives related to industry electrification, distributed generation deployment, and energy efficiency will greatly affect future energy consumption.
    Keywords: Demand, Energy Mix, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, Supply
    Date: 2020–05–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2020-wb06&r=all
  15. By: Jorge Blazquez; Marzio Galeotti; Baltasar Manzano; Axel Pierru; Shreekar Pradhan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s economy is heavily oil dependent.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Economic activity, GDP, Nighttime Satellite data, Production Function
    Date: 2020–05–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp11&r=all
  16. By: فرج, ماردين محسوم
    Abstract: هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى التعرف على العوامل الاقتصادية و غير الاقتصادية التي تؤثر على سعر الصرف الدينار العراقي خلال المدة(2004-2018)، ومن خلال هذا البحث تم قياس أثر كل من(مزاد العملة الأجنبية،عرض النقدي،الازمة المالية العالمية، عدم الاستقرار الامني) على سعر صرف العملة العراقية، وذلك من خلال صياغة نموذج قياسي، حيث تم تقدير النموذج باستعمال طريقتي (OLS),(ARDL). ومن النتائج التي تم التوصل إليها، يتبين أن مزاد العملة الأجنبية ساهم في انخفاض سعر صرف الدينار العراقي، وأثر عرض النقدي(M1) سلبياَ على سعر صرف الدينار العراقي،بينما هناك تباين في اثر العرض النقدي(M2) على سعر صرف الدينار العراقي في فترات حالية و فترات سابقة، بحيث ان اثر في فترة حالية كان إيجابيا بمعنى ان زيادة معروض النقدي ساهم في ارتفاع سعر صرف الدينار العراقي،بينما اثر عرض النقدي في فترة سابقة ( (LM2(-1) كان سلبياً وساهمت في تدهور سعر صرف الدينار العراقي. على الرغم من أهمية ظروف المحلية و العالمية و الاقليمة الا ان اثره على سعر صرف الدينار العراقي لم يكن ذو أهمية إحصائية. وقد خلص هذ البحث الى ضرورة تحقيق التوازن بين القطاعيي النقدي و الحقيقي عن طريق تناسب متوازن بين الكتلة التقدية و الناتج المحلي الإجمالي.
    Date: 2019–06–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:arabix:gqmp6&r=all
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