|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Nour, Samia (University of Khartoum, and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses both the descriptive and comparative approaches to provide an overview of migration of higher education students from North Africa to the United Kingdom (UK). We fill the gap in the African literature and present a more comprehensive and recent analysis of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region to the UK using UNESCO recent secondary data on international students mobility in tertiary education. We provide an interesting comparative analysis of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region to the UK. A novel element in our analysis is that we examine migration of higher education students from the North Africa region to the UK from both national and regional perspectives; mainly we discuss migration of higher education students for each individual country in the North Africa region (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia) and then discuss the total for the entire North Africa region. Therefore, we provide an extremely valuable contribution to the increasing debate in the international literature concerning the increasing interaction between migration and increasing internationalisation of higher education. Our findings support the first hypothesis that from a national perspective, the pattern and size of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region to the UK increased substantially over the period (2000-2017/2018) but the distribution showed considerable variation across North African countries. Our results corroborate the second hypothesis that the increasing trend of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region to the UK is caused by several push-pull factors (e.g. economic, social, political, cultural and educational). Our results support the third hypothesis that migrations of higher education students from North Africa to the UK lead to mixed positive and negative impacts (e.g. transfer of knowledge, brain gain and skill acquisition for returned migrant students, but weak capacity to retain talents and brain drain for non-returned migrant students). Our findings corroborate the fourth hypothesis that skills of migrant higher education students from the North Africa region can be better mobilised in their countries of origin by addressing the push-pull factors that determine migration of skills from the North Africa region. |
| Keywords: | Migration, higher education students, International student mobility, Internationalisation of higher education, Africa, North African region, the United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J60 J61 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2020–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2020016&r=all |
| By: | Cem Cakmakli (Koç University); Selva Demiralp (Koç University); Sebnem Kalemli Ozcan (University of Maryland, NBER and CEPR); Sevcan Yesiltas (Koç University); Muhammed Ali Yildirim (Koç University & Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 crisis can turn into the biggest emerging market (EM) crisis ever. EMs are observing record capital outflows and depreciating currencies, while trying to come up with fiscal resources necessary to fight the pandemic. This paper focuses on a large EM, Turkey. Turkey provides us with a good laboratory given its low foreign currency reserves, high foreign currency debt and a questionable record on monetary policy credibility, all of which are the characteristics of several EMs. We develop a simple framework incorporating a SIR model in a reduced form economic model. We proxy supply shocks with a measure that synthesizes infection rates with teleworkers, physical job proximity and lockdown policies. Demand shocks are captured with credit card purchases. We also incorporate the fact that Turkey is a small open economy with trade linkages. Our estimates show that the lowest economic cost, which saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under an immediate full lockdown. Partial lockdowns, which is the current policy, amplify the economic toll because the normalization takes longer. We highlight that it is necessary for the economic units to be compensated during the lockdown and yet Turkey’s policy options are limited given its low fiscal space, and reliance on capital flows that require both external and domestic funding. The external funds can be secured through international financial institutions. On the domestic front, the Turkish Central Bank can provide funding with a well-targeted and transparent asset purchase program (QE). As an example of such a policy, we provide the details of a successful historical episode: Turkish Central Bank monetized the government debt with a clearly communicated disinflation program under an IMF Stand-By Agreement, in the aftermath of 2001 triple crisis (banking, sovereign, balance of payments). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Financial Crisis; SIR; Input-Output Tables; Emerging Markets. |
| JEL: | E61 F00 C51 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2011&r=all |
| By: | Zarei, Samira |
| Abstract: | While the petrochemical products and their revenues have been the most important part of Iranian non-oil exports, after imposing the international sanctions on Iran’s economy, these revenues, reflected in the petrochemical stock index, have fluctuated. In line with this, the effects of some main macroeconomic variables on the petrochemical stock index have become more crucial than before. Among the macroeconomic variables, inflation and exchange rate are the most effective. Hence, To investigate whether the exchange rate misalignments and inflation are significant indicators of changes in the petrochemical stock index, this paper has been applied the time series data from January 2012 to January 2020 and an asymmetric and non-linear framework, NARDL. The empirical results in addition to prove the existence of asymmetric and significant relationships between the research variables, confirm that the impacts of negative components of exchange rate misalignments and, conversely, positive components of inflation have been stronger than the effects of their decomposed counterparts both in the long run and short run. |
| Keywords: | Petrochemical Stock Index, Exchange Rate Mis-alignments, Inflation, NARDL Model |
| JEL: | C22 E31 F31 G11 G17 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99101&r=all |
| By: | Chowdhry, Sonali; Jacobs, Anna-Katharina; Kamin, Katrin |
| Abstract: | Iran is one of the countries most affected by COVID-19 worldwide and is considered the epicenter of the outbreak in the Middle East. The growing number of cases in combination with the already ailing economy is putting increasing pressure on the Iranian healthcare system. The delayed reaction of the Iranian government to the outbreak of the pandemic and the low level of political confidence of the population in politics aggravate the crisis situation. In their contribution, the authors show that the far-reaching sanctions Iran has been subject to since the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement make it difficult for the health care system to react quickly to COVID-19. The authors recommend that the European Union, in its role as a responsible "global player", ensure the transfer of medical equipment for humanitarian purposes to Iran and strengthen cooperation efforts in the wake of the pandemic at the level of multilateral institutions. The EU should also play an active role in maintaining the dialogue between the USA and Iran. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Iran,Sanctions,Trade Policy,Sanktionen,Handelspolitik |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:137&r=all |
| By: | Anda DAVID; Jana KUHNT |
| Abstract: | Countries hosting large numbers of refugees often face immense challenges in providing sufficient economic opportunities, and access to basic services. Competition over limited resources can lead to tension and conflict between host and refugee populations. Increases in social tensions have typically been associated with limited social cohesion and inclusion. Jordan is a case in point: with a population of 7.6 million, the country was hosting more than 650,000 Syrian refugees in 2016, most of whom lived in urban areas. To this end, this article explores perceptions of social cohesion among youth (age 18-35) as well as short-term changes over the past two years. Using novel data from an online survey, the article presents evidence of a modest decrease in overall social cohesion in Jordan. At the same time however, young people want to be actors of change and have a clear desire for more civic participation in their communities. Frequently mentioned barriers are a lack of public spaces and limited knowledge regarding possibilities to more actively engage. The results further point to opportunities to strengthen social cohesion between host and refugee youth by supporting joint programs by age and interest, as identities of young people are less driven by nationality, ethnicity or religion, and primarily by age group and interest. While quite encouraging, these findings underscore the importance of further monitoring changes in social cohesion over time. |
| Keywords: | Jordanie |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2020–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10931&r=all |
| By: | Ozlem Albayrak |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether relative income and income inequality within reference groups affect household consumption. Using the explanations of consumption behavior based on Dusenberry's relative income hypothesis, we test if household consumption levels in Turkey are affected by the household's relative position and inequality in the reference group between 2005-12 by employing cross-sectional household-level data. We find that household consumption is negatively related to the relative income indicator after controlling for absolute income, and positively related to the income inequality of the reference group, as the literature suggests. The paper also shows that household indebtedness has a positive impact on household consumption when inequality in the reference group and the relative position of households are controlled for. We confirm that the results are not sensitive to chosen relative income indicators and income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Behavior; Inequality; Relative Income Hypothesis; Household Debt |
| JEL: | D12 D63 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_954&r=all |
| By: | Mona SAID |
| Abstract: | This paper explores trends in wage and income levels and inequality and mobility in Egypt, especially since 2012. Data are from the 1998, 2006, 2012, and 2018 waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). The findings point to declining real wages and incomes and a rise in inequality between 2012 and 2018. As a result, the share of wage workers below the low waged line (the working poor) has increased, especially for older workers, workers with higher education, and government workers. Circumstances, such as parental background and area of birth, have continued to play an important role in determining individuals’ wages. Focusing on the panel of individuals present in multiple waves of the survey, mobility since 2006 has remained mostly unchanged. The wage workers who tended to fare better from 2012 to 2018 were males, those in the public sector, and those with higher skills and education, however the differences across subgroups were not large. The deteriorating relative wage position of women in the private sector and increase in the working poor as a result of real wage declines require policy action to reverse those trends. |
| Keywords: | Égypte |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10959&r=all |
| By: | Jeyhun Mikayilov; Fakhri Hasanov; Waheed Olagunju; Mohammad H. Al-Shehri (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Energy is a pervasive input to all business and recreational activities. As such, total energy demand is an important indicator that helps explain the pattern of economic development within a country. Identifying and understanding the key determinants of electricity demand is therefore important for the economic prosperity of a country, since the availability of reliable electricity directly affects the prospects of economic development. With mega projects already in the works in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Vision 2030’s National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP 2019) being implemented, understanding the Kingdom’s existing and projected patterns of electricity demand is arguably more important now than ever before. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Demand, Economic Modelling, Energy Demand, Saudi Vision 2030 |
| Date: | 2020–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp10&r=all |
| By: | Zarei, Samira |
| Abstract: | This paper, through an asymmetric and non-linear framework, NARDL Model, investigates how real exchange rate movements affect the economic growth of Iran. In other words, whether the movements in the real exchange rate is an indicator of economic growth changes. Working on the monthly data of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Real Exchange Rate indexes from November 2009 to November 2019, this study shows asymmetric and negative relationships between exchange rate and economic growth both in the long run and short run. Although, in the long run, the magnitude of effects both positive and negative components of exchange rate on economic growth were significantly more than those of short run, the stability of the results have indicated that the roots of existing nonlinear and asymmetric relationships among these variables are so strong that change in time horizon, from the short run to long run, has also not been able to change them. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, NARDL, Nonlinear and Asymmetric Relationships |
| JEL: | C22 C52 F31 F43 O24 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99102&r=all |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran on mutual trade entered into force in October 2019. In this report we estimate its expected impact at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the HS 6-digit level. The analysis suggests that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. On aggregate, the total gains in mutual trade are estimated to reach almost USD 46 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran expected to increase by 9.7%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 4%. The difference in the impact will also be significant across the five EAEU countries as well as across sectors, with the major export gains expected to accrue in the chemicals and agri-food sectors, especially trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables, as well as in the textile, polymer production and metals sectors. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian integration, EAEU, Iran, trade agreement, gravity model, PPML |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:179&r=all |
| By: | Raouf Jaziri (COSTECH - Connaissance Organisation et Systèmes TECHniques - UTC - Université de Technologie de Compiègne); Abdulmajeed Saad Alanazi (University of Jeddah) |
| Abstract: | As a way to diversify its non-oil economy, Saudi Arabia launched a prospective initiative called Vision 2030 to boost its ability to be the biggest Middle Eastern logistic hub. Given its strategic geographic position at the crossroads of important international trade routes, between three continents: Asia, Europe and Africa, Saudi Arabia has a predominant logistical access to the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa, as well as the Asia-Europe trade route. Thanks to the existing infrastructure and all mechanisms already in place to improve logistics in Saudi Arabia, we strongly believe that the Physical Internet presents the right empowerment to these mechanisms by offering improvements in delivery times, costs and environmental impacts. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia,Physical Internet,Logistics,Logistic Hub |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02540283&r=all |
| By: | Nour, Samia (University of Khartoum, and UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the Sudan Uprising and discusses the major causes and factors that contributed to the success of the Sudan Uprising and potential opportunities and major challenges following the Sudan Uprising. We improve understanding, fill the gaps in the literature and provide an extremely valuable contribution to the literature by presenting a new and more comprehensive analysis and investigation of the factors that caused and contributed to the success of the Sudan Uprising and potential opportunities and major challenges following Sudan Uprising. A novel element in our analysis is that we investigate the various causes including economic causes, social and human development causes, political causes, institutional causes and the causes related to the lack of freedoms that caused the Sudan Uprising, we examine the dynamic interaction between the internal factors (youth, women, ICT, the Sudanese Professional Association, and University of Khartoum Teaching Staff Initiative), and external factors (diaspora) that contributed to supporting Sudan Uprising and we explain potential opportunities and major challenges following Sudan Uprising. From policy perspective, the relevance of our analysis is that we explain the causes of the Sudan Uprising, the internal and external factors that supported Sudan Uprising and potential opportunities and major challenges following the Sudan Uprising. Our findings support the first hypothesis that a combination of mixed factors and causes including economic causes, social and human development causes, political causes, institutional causes and the causes related to the lack of freedoms caused the Sudan Uprising. Our results corroborate the second hypothesis that the dynamic interaction between the internal factors (youth, women, ICT, the Sudanese Professional Association and University of Khartoum Teaching Staff Initiative) and external factors (diaspora) contributed to support Sudan Uprising and potential transformation in Sudan. Our results support the third hypothesis concerning the potential opportunities and major challenges following the Sudan Uprising. One major policy implication from our findings is that the lack of peace, freedom, and justice motivated the mass street demonstrations and Sudan Uprising that called for the achievement of peace, freedom, and justice for all people in Sudan. Another major policy implication from our findings is that it is important for policymakers in Sudan to adopt sound and coherent policies to consider the potential opportunities and challenges to achieve the comprehensive economic, social, political and institutional reform, to achieve the potential transformation, fulfil the objectives of the Sudan Uprising (peace, freedom, and justice) and achieve inclusive growth and sustainable development in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, social and human development, sustainable development, youth, ICT, Sudan |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O15 O43 O55 I3 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2020017&r=all |
| By: | Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz; Nora Nezamuddin; Abdelrahman Muhsen (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Logistics and infrastructure policy will play key roles in Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification and reform efforts. This study provides a quantitative assessment of specific measures related to freight transport, taking into consideration the heterogeneity of urban, regional and inter-regional localities in Saudi Arabia. This paper, mirroring the global approach developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, analyzes the potential impact of logistics policy. It sheds light on how transport regulations can help rationalize fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants in the Kingdom. |
| Keywords: | Freight Transport Activity, Freight Transport Energy Demand, Multimodal Freight transport, Saudi Freight Transport, Transport Policy Design |
| Date: | 2020–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp08&r=all |
| By: | فرج, ماردين محسوم |
| Abstract: | يشكل قطاع النفط عصب الحياة للاقتصاد الوطني في العراق، والمصدر الأساسي لتوليد الدخل القومي من جهة، والمصدر الذي لا بديل له في توفير العملات الأجنبية الضرورية لتمويل عمليات الاستيراد من جهة أخرى؛ وذلك بسبب ضخامة العوائد النفطية وسهولة تحقيقها التي لا تتطلب نشاطًا اقتصاديًّا حقيقيًّا. وعليه، يهدف هذا البحث الى بيان قياس تقلبات أسعار النفط على الموازنة العامة في العراق. ولتحقيق هذا الهدف اعتمد البحث على المنهج (القياسي - التحليلي) من خلال جمع البيانات الثانوية من المصادر المختلفة للمدة (1990-2018). و اخيرا،توصل البحث الى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات منها أنه تسهم الإيرادات النفطية في تكوين نسبة كبيرة من الإيرادات الحكومية، ان العراق كانت ولايزال تعتمد على العوائد المالية النفطية لتمويل الانفاق العام و عملية التنمية الاقتصادية. ان هناك علاقة طردية وإيجابية بين أسعار العالمية للنفط ورصيد الموازنة العامة،أي ان زيادة في أسعار العالمية للنفط ينعكس بصورة مباشرة على الموزانة العامة.كما ان الصادرات النفطية يؤثر ايجابياً على رصيد الموازنة العامة في العراق وهذه النتيجة يتفق مع واقع الاقتصاد العراقي من حيث اعتماده على الصادرات النفطية وعوائدها لتمويل الموازنة العامة. و بناء على ذلك فانه ضرورة العمل على تنويع مصادر الإيرادات العامة وترشيد النفقات العامة وذلك من خلال زيادة حصلة الإيرادات الضريبية وزيادة الانفاق الاستثماري. |
| Date: | 2020–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:arabix:8fhjy&r=all |