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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Abderraouf Mtiraoui (Université de Sousse) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to study, in the first place, the theoretical relationship between Islamic financial development, investment and economic growth. Second, we empirically try to discover the interaction between "Islamic financial development, investment and economic growth". Our empirical study highlights the direct effects of Islamic financial development on growth and investment. Finally, we also clarify the indirect effects of Islamic financial development on growth through Investment and vice versa, also on other socio-economic indicators over the period from 1990 to 2018, while using the model with simultaneous equations for the MENA region and East Asia and the Pacific. |
| Abstract: | Le but de ce papier est d'étudier, en premier lieu, la relation théorique entre le développement financier islamique, l'investissement et la croissance économique. En second lieu, nous tentons empiriquement de découvrir l'interaction entre « développement financier islamique, Investissement et la croissance économique ». Notre étude empirique met en lumière les effets directs du développement financier islamique sur la croissance et sur l'investissement. En dernier lieu, nous clarifions aussi les effets indirects du développement financier islamique sur la croissance à travers l'investissement et inversement, aussi sur les autres indicateurs socio-économiques au cours de la période allant de (1990-2018), tout en utilisant le modèle à des équations simultanées pour la région MENA et l'Asie de l'Est et Pacifique. |
| Keywords: | Développement financier Islamique,Investissement,Croissance Economique,Modèles à Équations Simultanées |
| Date: | 2020–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02523154&r=all |
| By: | Fakih, Ali; Makdissi, Paul; Marrouch, Walid; Tabri, Rami V.; Yazbeck, Myra |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the 2013 World Value Survey, as well as the 2016 and 2018 waves of the Arab Barometer, to analyze the dynamics of trust in public institutions in Lebanon. It finds strong evidence that confidence in most public institutions has decreased between 2013 and 2016. The evidence of this decrease is robust to the numerical scale assigned to the different ordinal categories of trust and to assumptions on the missing values generating process. This finding highlights the importance for policymakers in developing countries to survey the perceptions and political attitude of their constituents in order to improve the performance of public institutions. |
| Keywords: | Confidence, institutions, uprising, ordinal variable. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2020-02&r=all |
| By: | Emara, Noha; Zhang, Xiaojun; Liu, Shangchao |
| Abstract: | Using system panel GMM dynamic panel on a sample of nineteen MENA countries over the period 1990 – 2014, the study estimates the effect of financial stability on economic growth. Using the principal component analysis to create a composite index of financial stability consisting of a banking crisis dummy variable, the ratio of credit to government and state-owned enterprises to GDP, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector as a percent of GDP, the estimation results show financial stability in the MENA region is important for boosting economic growth in the region. Furthermore, when dividing the sample between oil and non-oil exporters, the results suggests no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of the impact of financial stability on economic growth. Our results are robust to the use of different fixed effects and random effects estimation methodologies. |
| Keywords: | Financial Stability; Economic Growth; System GMM; Fixed Effects; MENA Countries |
| JEL: | N2 N25 O16 O40 |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99312&r=all |
| By: | Tursoy, Turgut; Mar'i, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the relationship between money supply and inflation and Turkey by employing wavelet analysis, mainly continuous wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence and phase-difference, for the period from 1987 to 2019. Our main finding confirms the modern quantity theory of money about the existence of a relationship between inflation and money supply in the short-run and long-run, and also confirms the traditional quantity theory of money about the existence of a relationship in the long run. The phase difference confirms the existence of a bidirectional relationship between money supply and inflation. The result is consistent with both the traditional quantity theory of money in the long run and the modern quantity theory of money in the short-run and long-run in terms of the existence of a relationship between money supply and inflation. |
| Keywords: | Money supply, inflation, wavelet analysis, Turkey, the quantity theory of money. |
| JEL: | E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2020–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99595&r=all |
| By: | Mozhgan Asna-ashary (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-University Marburg); Mehdi Feizi (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Saeed Malek Sadati (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) |
| Abstract: | The new Coronavirus pandemic has extensive negative socioeconomic impacts. However, its effects on climate change and in particular air pollution, at least at the beginning of the outbreak, is not clear. Fear of getting the Coronavirus in crowded public spaces increased the use of personal cars, while prevention policies that seek to decrease population movement reduced their usage. This paper investigates the relationship between the outbreak of COVID-19, measured by the number of infected cases, and air pollution, measured by PM2.5, in 31 Iranian provinces over the 19 February 2020 to 11 March 2020 period. We employ a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach along with impulse response functions (IRFs), variance decomposition, and Granger causality tests. The analysis shows negative responses of the PM pollution to positive shock in COVID-19 cases in Iran. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Iran, panel vector autoregressive model, air pollution. |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202016&r=all |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-University Marburg); Mehdi Feizi (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad); Saeed Malek Sadati (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) |
| Abstract: | Soon after the first identified COVID-19 cases in Iran, the spread of the new Coronavirus has affected almost all its provinces. In the absence of credible data on people's unfiltered concerns and needs, especially in developing countries, Google search data is a reliable source that truthfully captures the public sentiment. This study examines the within province changes of confirmed cases of Corona across Iranian provinces from 19 Feb. 2020 to 9 March 2020. Using real-time Google Trends data, panel fixed effects, and GMM regression estimations, we show a robust negative association between the intensity of search for disinfection methods and materials in the past and current confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus. In addition, we find a positive and robust association between the intensity of the searches for symptoms of Corona and the number of confirmed cases within the Iranian provinces. These findings are robust to control for province and period fixed effects, province-specific time trends, and lag of confirmed cases. Our results show how not only prevention could hinder affection in an epidemic disease but also prophecies, shaped by individual concerns and reflected in Google search queries, might not be self-fulfilling. |
| Keywords: | Google Trends, COVID-19, Iran, epidemic disease |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202017&r=all |
| By: | Noumedem Temgoua,Claudia; Sharma,Dhiraj; Wai-Poi,Matthew Grant |
| Abstract: | Decades of conflict have contributed to high flows of internal displacement in Iraq. The incidence of these flows on the welfare of internally displaced persons is not well understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the link between internal displacement and multidimensional poverty, using one of the most comprehensive household surveys for poverty analysis in Iraq. The results show crucial differences between internally displaced and non-displaced households with respect to multidimensional poverty. Furthermore, instrumental variable regression analysis suggests that the relationship is causal, that is, the probabilities of multidimensional and monetary poverty are higher because of internal displacement. |
| Date: | 2020–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9203&r=all |
| By: | Shimaa Elkony; Hilary Ingham; Robert Read |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the domestic productivity and spillover effects of foreign technology and embodied R&D on Egyptian manufacturing industries, 2003 to 2009. It also analyses the heterogeneous sectoral effects of technology transfer by focusing specifically on the productivity effects on highly internationalised and technology intensive industries. These are expected to have greater absorptive capacity with respect to foreign technology and therefore greater productivity effects because of their greater exposure to foreign competition and greater technological capacity respectively. The study is the first to analyse the efficiency effects of foreign technology by classifying industries in this manner. The study finds that foreign technology and embodied R&D have positive and significant industry-specific effects on domestic productivity and TFP in technology intensive industries but these are weaker in internationally-oriented industries. The findings suggest that only the technological intensive industries in Egypt have sufficient absorptive capacity to assimilate foreign technology effectively. The paper’s findings highlight the key role of foreign technology in domestic productivity growth, subject to the absorptive capacity of the domestic labour force, and the need for improved policies to promote the domestic benefits of technology transfer through the accumulation of local technological competences. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Technology, International R&D, Industrial Productivity, Trade |
| JEL: | D24 L60 O30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:293574925&r=all |
| By: | Abderraouf Mtiraoui (Université de Sousse) |
| Abstract: | The object of this article is to study, first of all, the relation between the Islamic finance and the economic growth. Secondly, we develop a review of the literature which highlights the nature of relation between the financial development and the economic growth and also the nature of the articulation between the governance as the quality indicator of governance and the economic growth while taking into account the role of the Islamic finance, as catalyst of economic growth in the orientation of the investments and the public spending and which makes more effective the action of governance. Lastly, we try empirically to discover the direct and indirect effects of the Islamic finance and the governance on the economic growth and consequently the relation enters the Islamic financial development measured by the bank credits of the private sector divided by the GDP and the governance on the economic growth. Our empirical try is based on a method of estimation used to know the model in simultaneous equations for our region of study MENA and the Asia Pacific during well determined period. |
| Abstract: | L'objet de cet article est d'étudier, en premier lieu, la relation entre la finance islamique et la croissance économique. En second lieu, nous développons une revue de la littérature qui met en lumière la nature de relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique et aussi la nature de l'articulation entre la gouvernance comme indicateur de qualité de gouvernance et la croissance économique tout en tenant compte du rôle de la finance islamique, comme catalyseur de croissance économique dans l'orientation des investissements et des dépenses publiques et qui rend plus efficace l'action de gouvernance. En dernier lieu, nous tentons empiriquement de découvrir les effets directs et indirects de la finance islamique et la gouvernance sur la croissance économique et par conséquent la relation entre le développement financier islamique mesuré par les crédits bancaires du secteur privé divisé par le PIB et la gouvernance sur la croissance économique. Notre essai empirique est basé sur une méthode d'estimation utilisée à savoir le modèle à des équations simultanées pour dans Quelques Nations Islamiques durant une période bien déterminée. |
| Keywords: | Gouvernance,Finance Islamique,Croissance économique and Modèles à équations simultanées J |
| Date: | 2020–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02523656&r=all |
| By: | Emara, Noha; El Said, Ayah; Pearlman, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Financial Inclusion - access to financial products by households and firms - is one of the main albeit challenging priorities, both for Advanced Economies (AEs) as well as Emerging Markets (EMs), even more so for the latter. Financial inclusion facilitates consumption smoothing, lowers income inequality, enables risk diversification, and tends to positively affect economic growth. Financial stability is another rising priority among policy makers. This is evident in the re-emergence of macroprudential policies after the global financial crisis, minimizing systemic risk, particularly risks associated with rapid credit growth. However, there are significant policy trade-offs that could exist between both financial inclusion and financial stability, with mixed evidence on the link between the two objectives. Given the importance of macroprudential policies as a toolbox to achieve financial stability, we examine the impact of macroprudential policies on financial inclusion - a potential cause for financial instability if not carefully implemented. Using panel regressions for 67 countries over the period 2000-2014, our results point to mixed effects of macroprudential policies. The usage (and tightening) of some tools, such as the debt-to-income ratio, appear to reduce financial inclusion whereas others, such as the required reserve ratio (RRR), increase it. Specifically, both institutional quality and financial development appear to increase the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on financial inclusion. Institutional quality helps macroprudential policies boost financial inclusion, with mixed effects as a result of financial development, but the results are more significant when we include either institutional quality or financial development. This leads us to believe that macroprudential policies conditional on better institutional quality and financial development improves financial inclusion. This has important policy implications for financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Financial Inclusion; Governance; Financial Stability; MENA; Macroprudential Policies |
| JEL: | C21 C23 O4 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99258&r=all |
| By: | Michel Beine; Luisito Bertinelli; Rana Comertpay; Anastasia Litina; Jean-Francois Maystadt |
| Abstract: | Based on geolocalized mobile phone calls data, we study the mobility of refugees in Turkey. We employ a gravity model to estimate the determinants of refugee movements across 26 regions in 2017. To benchmark our findings, we estimate the same model for the mobility of individuals with a non-refugee status. Beyond the standard determinants such as the levels of income at origin, at destination and distances across regions, we find that networks, provision of humanitarian aid and asylum grants are important determinants of refugee mobility. Our paper deepens our understanding on how forcibly displaced people may respond to economic, social and political factors in their location decision. |
| Keywords: | Refugee Mobility, Gravity Model of Migration, Forced Displacement, Mobile Phone Data, News Media, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:293574571&r=all |
| By: | Kozhaya, Rodrique |
| Abstract: | This Thesis has been realized within the agribusiness sector and experiments the Transaction Cost Theory a branch of the New Institutional Economy which explain market failure caused by many factors. Transaction costs are associated with carrying a transaction between buyers and sellers. This study has been conducted between 2014 and 2017; and has collected data from 11 broiler producers in Jezzine, Lebanon, about: Production costs, capital investment, revenues, land tenure, access to infrastructure, and information about the contract. The propensity score matching method is used to compare the effect of participating in contract farming and to solve the hypotheses, which say: There is a positive relationship between contract farming and the economic benefits of broiler producers and the development of the broiler sector in Jezzine District. Findings from farmer’s interviews indicated that sustainability, guaranteed price, risk reduction, credit facilities and technical aids are the main reasons for signing a contract. In contrast, Farmers have expressed problems concerning the contractors’ responsibilities such as delay in payment and delivery. Also, when prices are high, it was argued that farmers were selling the products in the open market. |
| Keywords: | Contract farming, broiler producers, economic sustainability. |
| JEL: | M0 M1 M10 |
| Date: | 2020–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99369&r=all |
| By: | Arnaud Lacheret (Arabian Gulf University) |
| Date: | 2020–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02536657&r=all |