nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒04‒06
nine papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Internet Job Search, Employment, and Wage Growth : Evidence from the Arab Republic of Egypt By El-Mallakh,Nelly
  2. Oil Price Uncertainty and Conflicts: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa By Massimiliano Caporin; Zahra Mohammadi Nikpour; Paola Valbonesi
  3. Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates By Kalaitzi, Athanasia S.; Chamberlain, Trevor W.
  4. Islamic Financial Development Between Trend and Stability in the MENA region: Application on Panel Data By Abderraouf Mtiraoui
  5. The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier By Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal
  6. Digital Trade in MENA : Regulatory Readiness Assessment By Daza Jaller,Lillyana Sophia; Molinuevo,Martin
  7. Alternative tourism development: Case of Urla By Pırnar, Ige; Kurtural, Sinem
  8. Inconsistency transmission and variance reduction in two-stage quantile regression By Tae-Hwan Kim; Christophe Muller
  9. اقتراح إنشاء المعهد العربي للطب By Moustafa, Khaled

  1. By: El-Mallakh,Nelly
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of Internet job search on employment in the Arab Republic of Egypt, the most populous country in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using panel data from the 2012 and 2018 rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, the paper examines the impact of Internet job search by the unemployed on their employment prospects. It also examines the impact of Internet job search by employed job seekers on their wage growth, as well as the impact of digitalization at the workplace on earnings. Accounting for individual and geographical unobserved heterogeneity using panel data, the results suggest that Internet job search is an effective job search method, as it increases the probability that the unemployed -- and in particular unemployed men -- will find employment. Auxiliary placebo regressions confirm that preexisting trends in labor market outcomes are not driving the results. However, Internet job search by employed job seekers does not appear to have an impact on their wage growth, nor does digitalization at the workplace affect the wage growth of employed individuals.
    Date: 2020–03–26
  2. By: Massimiliano Caporin (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova); Zahra Mohammadi Nikpour (DSEA, University of Padova); Paola Valbonesi (Department of Economics and Management University of Padova and Higher School of Economics, National Research University (HSE-NRU), Moscow)
    Abstract: We empirically study the relationship between oil price uncertainty and conflict incidence by using different Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models, also augmented with Heterogeneous (VHAR) components. We build two measures for oil price uncertainty and investigate the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) interstate conflict, civil conflict and terrorist attacks data. Our results show that uncertainty in the oil market increases the incidence of conflict in the region. By further decomposing the model for OPEC and non-OPEC members of the region, we find that while the OPEC members immunise themselves against conflict, oil price uncertainty affects the conflict in non-OPEC members positively.
    Keywords: Conflict, Natural Resources, Oil Prices, SVAR
    JEL: D74 E31 F51 Q34 C32 O13
    Date: 2020–03
  3. By: Kalaitzi, Athanasia S.; Chamberlain, Trevor W.
    Abstract: This paper examines the validity of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1975–2012, using a neoclassical production function augmented with merchandise exports and imports of goods and services. The study applies the Johansen cointegration technique and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) regression to confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, while the multivariate Granger causality test is applied to examine the direction of the short-run causality. In addition, the existence of long-run causality is investigated by applying a modified version of the Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model. The Johansen test and DOLS results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth. In addition, the study provides evidence to support the validity of the ELG hypothesis in the short-run, while no long-run causality is found to exist.
    Keywords: economic growth; Exports; Granger causality; UAE
    JEL: J1 L81
    Date: 2020–02–23
  4. By: Abderraouf Mtiraoui (Université de Sousse)
    Abstract: Drawing on a review of the innovative literature, we first examine theoretically the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, while taking into account the role played by Islamic finance in steering investment and public spending. which takes into account the effective human (education) in the presence of conventional finance. Finally, we try empirically to discover the influences of Islamic finance as a trend towards economic growth describing the stability and sustainability of any financial system used and hence the relationship between Islamic financial development and economic growth. Our empirical validation is based on a panel data application for our MENA region over a long period of 20 years (1990-2009).
    Abstract: En appuyant sur une revue de la littérature innovante, nous examinons en premier lieu théoriquement la nature de relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique tout en tenant compte du rôle joué la finance islamique dans le sens d'orientation des investissements et des dépenses publiques qui prend en considération l'efficace humaine (éducation) en présence de la finance conventionnelle. Nous essayons en dernier lieu empiriquement de découvrir les influences de la finance islamique comme étant une tendance sur la croissance économique décrivant la stabilité et durabilité de n'importe quel système financier utilisé et par conséquent la relation entre le développement financier islamique sur la croissance économique. Notre validation empirique est basée une application sur les données de panel pour notre région MENA durant une longue période de 20 ans successifs (1990-2009).
    Keywords: Islamic financial development,Economic growth,Panel data,Développement Financier Islamique,Croissance Economique,Les Données De Panel
    Date: 2019–08–26
  5. By: Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal
    Abstract: This paper is first econometric study that investigates empirically the impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese financial market. We run Vector Autoregression model (VAR), Granger causality tests, generalized impulse response functions and Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA), to assess the impacts of Israeli Geopolitical Risks (GPRs) on the Lebanese financial stability, on the Foreign reserves’ depletion and the economic activity. To measure the Lebanese financial stability, we consider the Lebanese Financial Stress Index (FSI) that was initially calculated by Ishrakieh et al. (2019, 2020). The Geopolitical Risks (GPRs) are measured by taking the continuous variable calculated on a monthly basis to best suit time series analyses, calculated by Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello in 2018. This paper illustrates many novelties such as incorporating the Financial Stress Index for the first time in an empirical, econometric study. Also, the adequate level of International reserves (IRs) is taken by calculating the ratio of International reserves to Foreign currency deposits as a more appropriate measurement for a dollarized country. Similarly, to measure the economic activity and the business cycle on a monthly basis, we consider the employment in private sector as a better proxy than traditional variables considered in previous studies. Results show that if any financial crisis occurs in Lebanon, an economic recession is more likely to follow within six months. Also, we find that International Reserves (IRs) shocks may cause a financial crisis thus economic recession. Finally, we conclude that Israeli GPRs are destabilizer multiplier: they trigger financial instability and economic recession in Lebanon. They cause IR shocks, threaten the Lebanese financial market and provoke economic recession. To sustain financial market stability, policy makers should not only accumulate sufficient level of IRs relatively to foreign deposit, but also, they have to avoid Israeli-Hezbollah tensions.
    Keywords: Financial crises, geopolitical tisks, economic activity, Lebanon, Israel, VAR, Granger Causality.
    JEL: C32 F51 G01
    Date: 2020–03–16
  6. By: Daza Jaller,Lillyana Sophia; Molinuevo,Martin
    Abstract: A strong regulatory framework can provide essential tools for remote transactions and improve trust in digital trade. Yet, regulations can also introduce restrictions that hamper the conditions for digital markets. Based on a database of 20 Middle East and North Africa countries and 20 comparator countries around the world, this paper shows that the Middle East and North Africa region is falling behind in establishing a modern governance framework for the digital economy. The analysis focuses on a set of regulatory areas, including electronic documentation and signature, online consumer protection, data governance, cybersecurity, and intermediary liability regulations. It assesses each country's domestic regulatory framework in light of recent international trends and regulatory models. The study shows that regulation of digital markets in countries in the region is still in its infancy, being mostly governed by general laws that were not originally intended for the digital era. Some countries have tried to support an export-oriented information technology sector by keeping an updated regulatory framework. However, regulation in most countries in the region, regardless of their level of development, still features some major loopholes that can limit consumer trust in digital markets or reduce certainty -- and increase costs -- for digital businesses.
    Date: 2020–03–30
  7. By: Pırnar, Ige; Kurtural, Sinem
    Abstract: The first part of the study gives a brief information on Urla district in Izmir, Turkey and briefly emphasizes alternative tourism benefits and various types of it. The second section focuses on a case study on Urla district and the alternative tourism applications of the destination namely; festival tourism, heritage tourism, new-culture tourism, camping tourism, trekking tourism, yacht and sailing tourism, wine tourism, gastronomy tourism, adventure tourism and eco- tourism. A derived SWOT analysis on Urla’s alternative tourism is also included in the final part where appropriate strategies and suggestions which are likely to optimize the strengths and opportunities, to eliminate or strengthen the weaknesses and to handle the threats are developed.
    Keywords: Alternative forms of tourism, Urla, SWOT Analysis
    JEL: L83 O1
    Date: 2018–10–28
  8. By: Tae-Hwan Kim (School of Economics, Yonsei University - Yonsei University); Christophe Muller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new variance reduction method for quantile regressions with endogeneity problems, for alpha-mixing or m-dependent covariates and error terms. First, we derive the asymptotic distribution of two-stage quantile estimators based on the fitted-value approach under very general conditions. Second, we exhibit an inconsistency transmission property derived from the asymptotic representation of our estimator. Third, using a reformulation of the dependent variable, we improve the efficiency of the two-stage quantile estimators by exploiting a tradeoff between an inconsistency confined to the intercept estimator and a reduction of the variance of the slope estimator. Monte Carlo simulation results show the fine performance of our approach. In particular, by combining quantile regressions with first-stage trimmed least-squares estimators, we obtain more accurate slope estimates than 2SLS, 2SLAD and other estimators for a broad set of distributions. Finally, we apply our method to food demand equations in Egypt.
    Keywords: Two-stage estimation,Variance reduction,Quantile regression,Asymptotic bias
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Moustafa, Khaled
    Abstract: المعرفة العلمية هي إحدى أهم دعائم الاكتفاء الذاتي بمختلف أوجهه، الصحي، والغذائي، والاقتصادي، من خلال مراكز أو منشآت علمية جادة وموثوقة ومكرسة لدراسة وفهم الأمراض المستعصية، والمشاكل الطبية والبيئية والزراعية والتقنية، وإيجاد الحلول الناجعة لها بأسرع وأقل التكاليف. من أجل هذه الغاية، أقترح هنا إنشاء "المعهد العربي للطب" و/أو ("المركز العربي للبحوث العلمية أو "المركز العربي للعلوم")، في إحدى المدن العربية، على أن يكون لهما فروع في مختلف البلدان العربية، وتزويدهما بالموارد اللازمة والتجهيزات التي تمكنهما من رفع مستوى الوعي العلمي العربي، والمساهمة في رفد الجهود الإنسانية في إيجاد حلول للأمراض المزمنة، والمشاكل العالقة التي يعاني منها البشرية حالياً ومستقبلاً.
    Date: 2020–04–03

This nep-ara issue is ©2020 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.