|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) is pleased to present the first regionalized social accounting matrix (SAM) for Egypt. This SAM marks a major milestone in “localizing†development research and policy in Egypt and is expected to be most valuable for the development, implementation, and assessment of Egypt’s national and local development plans, like Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy 2030. In addition to standard SAMs, which combine many national datasets from institutions such as Central Banks, Ministries of Finance and Agriculture, and Statistical Bureaus, this regionalized SAM makes extensive use of sub-national level information such as the Economic Survey and Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIECS) produced by CAPMAS, regional GDP estimates by the Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform, and the Agricultural Bulletins with information at the Governorate level produced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation. With this data it becomes possible to provide a detailed, socioeconomic status update for different regions within Egypt. As such, the disaggregated SAM allows for analyzing developmental issues at regional level and to better understand the potential impacts of policy changes at the local level. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, household expenditure, commodities, taxes, enterprises, data, data collection, economic indicators, databases, agriculture, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:22&r=all |
| By: | Raouf, Mariam; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Engelke, Wilfried; Kebsi, Tarek Al; Tandon, Sharad A.; Wiebelt, Manfred; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a representation of an economy that shows the circular flow of all transfers and real transactions between sectors and institutions. The SAM, which is a square matrix, describes the flows of incomes from activities, taking the form of factor remunerations, that are consequently received by the households for consumption on goods and services. The accounts in the SAM are the production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. According to data availability, the production activities can be further disaggregated to include more detailed information on sub-sectoral or regional production. Similarly, the factors of production could be differentiated by the level of skills or the location of employment. Households can be disaggregated by income quintiles or by rural and urban residence. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA,YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, household expenditure, commodities, taxes, enterprises, data, data collection, economic indicators, databases, agriculture, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:21&r=all |
| By: | El-Enbaby, Hoda; Gilligan, Daniel; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Women’s control over decision-making within their family, particularly regarding the use of household income, can play an important and long-lasting role in shaping their well-being and that of their children. Cash transfer programs often target women in order to increase their control over household resources. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this approach is mixed and suggests the importance of local context. We present evidence on the effect of cash transfers on women’s control over decision-making in the MENA region, where little evidence is available and where cultural norms around women’s roles differ from more-studied regions. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we identify the impact of Egypt’s “Takaful†national cash transfer program on women’s control over decision-making and labor supply. Receiving cash transfers mostly reduced women’s reported ability to influence household decisions, particularly regarding child healthcare. The loss of control over decision-making was greater for women with less than primary education. Other effects of the program include a decline in women’s employment and an increase in men’s involvement in spheres of decision-making usually controlled by women. These results are robust to changes in model specification. We present suggestive evidence from mediation analysis that the negative effects on women’s control over decision-making was directly related to these declines in employment and increase in men’s involvement in female spheres. The negative findings are not wholly supported by complementary qualitative work in which women reported more positive perceptions of the program’s impacts. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, gender, women, decision making, work force, labour, household income, income, households, employment, cash transfers, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:25&r=all |
| By: | Salhine, Rim Ben; Younes, Anis Ben; El Kadhi, Zouhair; Jebali, Belhassen; Raouf, Mariam |
| Abstract: | A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is an accounting framework that gives a quantitative overview of the structure of the economy over a given time period. It records all transactions between economic agents, while respecting the principles of circularity of flows and balance between revenues and expenditures for each account. The level of disaggregation of accounts in the matrix varies according to the analyses to be undertaken and data availability. The accounts in a national SAM generally are production activities, commodities, institutions, and factors of production. For economic analyses and planning, a more detailed SAM is constructed. These involve disaggregation of activities, households, and factors of production from the more general national SAM. In such matrices, the national economy often will also be disaggregated into sub-national regions. Such SAMs provide rich datasets to help decision-makers in developing, designing, and evaluating regional economic and investment policies. As part of the technical cooperation within the (Arab) Agricultural Investment Development Analyzer (AIDA) project, which aims to develop tools for planning and evaluating investment projects in the agricultural sector, the Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes Quantitatives (ITCEQ – the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies), in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), have built a regionalized SAM of the Tunisian economy with detailed disaggregation at the sector, product, household, and regional levels. This SAM has been constructed using IFPRI's Nexus format, which uses common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The regionalized SAM for Tunisia was built using national accounts statistics for the country, the Supply and Use Tables for 2015, which are produced by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The regionalized matrix is constructed in three steps – national, household, and regional. • The national 2015 SAM for Tunisia includes 46 sectors and 46 products. • For the household SAM, factors of production are split into 13 categories. Capital is disaggregated into four subcategories: crops, livestock, mining, and other. Land is a separate factor of production category. Labor is disaggregated into four education-level categories and across rural and urban areas. For the household SAM, household accounts are split into 15 categories by rural farm, rural nonfarm, and urban categories and then by national per capita expenditure quintiles. • For the regionalized SAM, sectoral production, production factors, and household groups are disaggregated into seven subnational regions: Greater Tunis, North East, North West, Center East, Center West, South East, and South West. The regional 2015 SAM in total has 105 household groups and is composed of 513 rows x 513 columns. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA,TUNISIA, accounting, regional accounting, households, production, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:26&r=all |
| By: | El-Enbaby, Hoda; Ecker, Olivier; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Leroy, Jef L.; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt based on data from a comprehensive farm household survey. The results from the descriptive analysis in combination with findings from the global literature provide recommendations on how agricultural projects can be leveraged for improving nutrition. The importance of focusing on nutrition is underlined by relatively high undernutrition and overnutrition rates among the surveyed farm households: almost 18 percent of children under five years of age are stunted and almost 25 percent of them are at risk of being overweight. Agricultural interventions can impact nutrition through six main pathways, which are: 1) providing direct access to food from own production; 2) providing a source of income from which food and other nutrition needs can be met; 3) affecting food prices; 4) affecting women’s social status and empowerment; 5) affecting women’s time use from participation in agricultural work; and 6) affecting women’s health and nutrition from engagement in agricultural activities. The surveyed farm households purchase in the market most of the foods that they consume, cultivating crops primarily for commercial sale. This finding suggests that access to food markets and the level of food prices are key determinants of food and nutrition security among smallholder farm households in Upper Egypt. The survey analysis also identified potential levers for increasing agricultural productivity, including promoting more efficient use of water, fertilizers, and pesticides and improving farming practices to narrow the productivity gap between small-scale farmers and medium and large-scale farmers. As the role of women in agricultural activities in Upper Egypt is limited, the gendered pathways for leveraging agriculture for improved nutrition are less relevant. However, to achieve positive impact on people’s diet or nutritional status that goes beyond income and price channels, programs that reach farm households in Upper Egypt should include education and behavioral change communication activities, including on themes related to breastfeeding, dietary diversity, physical activities, and sugar intake. For such activities to be effective, it is important to consider the low literacy levels in the population. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, smallholders, nutrition knowledge, child nutrition, household expenditure, women farmers, role of women, nutrition, farm household survey, health knowledge, hygiene knowledge, agricultural interventions, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:20&r=all |
| By: | Figueroa, Jose Luis; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | This study provides estimated ranges for the magnitude of bias caused by measurement error in stunting rates in young children, a widely used proxy for long-term nutritional status. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, malnutrition, children, child nutrition, nutrition, anthropometry, simulation, demography, health, measurement error, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:23&r=all |
| By: | Semih Tumen (TED University, IZA, and ERF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on high school enrollment rates of native youth in Turkey. Syrian refugees are, on average, less skilled and more willing to work in low-pay informal jobs than Turkish natives. Refugees can influence native youth’s school enrollment likelihood negatively through educational ex- perience. But, at the same time, they can affect enrollment rates positively as they escalate competition for jobs with low-skill requirements. Using micro data from 2006 to 2016 and employing quasi-experimental methods, I find that high- school enrollment rates increased 2.7-3.6 percentage points among native youth in refugee- receiving regions. Furthermore, a one-percentage point increase in the refugee-to-population ratio in a region generates around 0.4 percentage point increase in native’s high school enrollment rates. Most of the increase in high school enrollment comes from young males with lower parental backgrounds, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the main mechanism operates through the low-skill labor market. The regressions control for (i) variables proxying parental investment in human capital such as parental education, being in an intact family, and household size, (ii) regional economic activity, and (iii) regional availability of high schools and high school teachers. |
| Keywords: | Low-skill Syrian refugees; youth education; high school enrollment JEL Classification: I25; J61 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:283&r=all |
| By: | Mohieldin,Mahmoud; Hussein,Khaled; Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the evolution of the Egyptian banking sector and the main trends in financial development in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The paper examines empirically the relationship between the development of the financial sector and economic growth in Egypt between 1980 and 2016. It draws comparisons based on critical financial indicators between Egypt and selected emerging markets and developing economies, using a new data set of financial development indexes released by the International Monetary Fund. Econometric time-series modeling of bivariate regressions for real growth per capita and measures of financial development, to assess the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt, yields three specific findings. First; there is a strong association between real growth per capita and financial development measured. Second; access to and the efficiency of banking services are not associated with real per capita income. Third, the Financial Markets Access Index?which compiles data on market capitalization outside the top 10 largest companies and the number of corporate issuers of debt?indicates that there is a robust association with real per capita gross domestic product. The main policy implications suggest that there should be a stronger focus on promoting a more proactive role for the financial services industry in Egypt. There is an especially critical role for bank financing to support the private sector to maintain an inclusive growth momentum. Further development of the capital market will promote the sustainability of such economic growth. |
| Date: | 2019–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9008&r=all |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Thurlow, James; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Abstract: | This paper goes beyond the “business†case for agricultural value chain development and presents an economy-wide framework to make the “development†case. We show that there are several key transmission channels that determine the economy-wide impacts of promoting various value chains, including forward and backward economic linkages, price responses, and net employment effects. These impacts all matter for household incomes, poverty, and dietary diversity. Results for Egypt show that agricultural value chain development generates economy-wide growth as well as growth in the agri-food system, but the impacts on employment suggest that agricultural growth can create new (and better) jobs in and beyond the agri-food system, but not necessarily more jobs. The results also show that productivity-driven agricultural growth in all crops is pro-poor and improves nutrition. However, potential adverse effects of livestock-led growth show that growth acceleration in single sectors can be negative, highlighting the importance of a systems analysis or, in our case, an economy-wide analysis. It is clear that no single sub-sector is best at achieving all the development outcomes examined. Moreover, the ranking of value chains by their development outcomes differs across sub-national regions. As such, results from this paper may provide useful decision support for the government and its development partners to select value chains depending on their priority development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, supply chain; food Systems; employment; nutrition; economic growth; economic development; value chain; agricultural growth; employment effect; nutrition effect; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model; C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:18&r=all |
| By: | El-Enbaby, Hoda; Ecker, Olivier; Figueroa, Jose Luis; Leroy, Jef L.; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | The success of nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions in countries in the Middle East and North Africa has not been examined in much depth. To narrow this knowledge gap, a smallholder farm household survey was conducted in six governorates in Upper Egypt in April and May 2018 following the winter cropping season. The survey provides comprehensive information on agriculture, nutrition, and health. Specifically, the study sought to identify potential levers and challenges along the agriculture-nutrition impact pathways, with attention to value chain development approaches for promoting horticulture. This policy note presents findings from the survey. It should be useful in the design and implementation of nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs in Upper Egypt. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA, smallholders, nutrition knowledge, child nutrition, household expenditure, women farmers, role of women, nutrition, farm household survey, health knowledge, hygiene knowledge, agricultural interventions, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:1&r=all |
| By: | Kurdi, Sikandra; Ghorpade, Yashodhan; Ibrahim, Hosam |
| Abstract: | This evaluation of Yemen’s Cash for Nutrition intervention, a cash transfer program combined with nutritional trainings implemented by the Yemen Social Fund for Development (YSF), examines the program’s impacts on child nutrition indicators and related intermediate variables during a period of conflict. The decline in several indicators of welfare for the sample population that occurred after the beginning of the civil conflict in Yemen is also traced. Overall, the program decreased the share of children diagnosed with moderate or severe malnutrition and improved anthropometric indicators of nutritional status in children in the poorest third of households. The Cash for Nutrition program was funded by the World Bank through the United Nations Development Programme as part of the Yemen Emergency Crisis Response Project. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA,YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, nutrition, gender, women, empowerment, food supply, food security, child nutrition, breast feeding, nutrition programs, nutrition programmes, dietary diversity, nutritional training sessions, cash transfers, social protection, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:19&r=all |
| By: | Bertelli, Olivia; Kurdi, Sikandra; Mahmoud, Mai; Al-Maweri, Mohamad; Al Bass, Tareq |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impacts on the participants of the Yemen Social Fund for Development’s youth employment and training program called Rural and Urban Advocates Working for Development (RUAWFD). The evaluation used both traditional surveys and an innovative experimental game methodology to show that the employment program, in addition to aiding youth individually, has important benefits for the country as a whole by contributing to stronger social capital. The survey analysis finds for the program participants significant increases between the baseline and follow-up surveys in self-reported trust in local government institutions and officials, political parties, and tribes. In reflecting on the level of cooperativeness in their own communities, participants reported increased awareness of the presence of marginalized groups and increased perception of cooperativeness in surrounding communities. There was also a significant increase in self-reported trust in people generally, especially for trust in other young people and in people from other areas of Yemen. The experimental game methodology uses a common pool game from the experimental economics literature incentivized by cash payments to measure trust levels between pairs of RUAWFD participants from different geographic regions. This approach confirms the findings from the survey analysis while avoiding possible self-reporting bias. The game results show that trust was lowest at baseline for partners in which one of the partners was from one of the Northern governorates and the other was from one of the Southern governorates. After the intervention, however, not only were average trust levels higher, but Northern-Southern pairs of RUAWFD participants had trust levels closer to those for pairs from the same regions. These findings are consistent with the literature on inter-group contact theory suggesting that community interventions can increase trust in individuals and institutions. This research contributes to a growing literature on trust and social capital as important development indicators, particularly in relation to conflict. The main results suggest that reinforcing social ties across regions in Yemen is an important benefit of the Social Fund for Development’s role as a national development agency and an achievable objective to consider in planning development interventions to contribute to future post-conflict reconstruction. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA,YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, social capital, youth, youth employment, rural employment, urban population, development programmes, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:24&r=all |
| By: | Ecker, Olivier; Maystadt, Jean-François; Guo, Zhe |
| Abstract: | Hunger and acute child malnutrition are increasingly concentrated in fragile countries and civil conflict zones. According to the United Nations, Yemen’s civil war has caused the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in recent history. We use high-frequency panel data and district fixed-effects and household fixed-effects models to estimate the impact of civil conflict on child nutrition. Our results indicate that an increase by one standard deviation in civil conflict intensity translates into an increase in the prevalence of acute child malnutrition by at least 0.7 percentage points if measured by weight-for-height z-scores and by at least 1.7 percentage points if measured by mid-upper arm circumference z-scores. In mid-December 2018, Yemen’s main warring parties agreed to a ceasefire for the contested port city of Hodeida and to allow humanitarian aid to be shipped in and distributed through protected corridors. While the recent agreements are an important, first step to tackle the humanitarian crisis, the road to a sustainable peace agreement will certainly be long and bumpy. Relative stability could soon open a window of opportunity for targeted interventions to support recovery in Yemen. Against this background, our analysis suggests that unconditional cash transfers can be an effective tool in situations of complex emergencies. Our estimation results show that cash transfers can mitigate the detrimental impact of lingering civil conflict on child nutritional status in Yemen on a large scale. Our results also reveal that the regularity of transfer payments influence the magnitude of the mitigation effect, as regular assistance allows beneficiary households to smoothen their food consumption and other demands influencing child nutrition outcomes. |
| Keywords: | EGYPT, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA,YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, malnutrition, children, conflicts, cash transfers, unconditional cash transfers, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:17&r=all |
| By: | Rudolph, M. |
| Abstract: | The West Bank, derived from its position on the western bank of the Jordan River, is the territory that came under Jordanian rule after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war and that has been occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War of 1967. Since this period, access to water in the West Bank has been largely controlled by Israel, with the consequence of severe water insecurities for Palestinians in sensitive areas like the Jordan Valley. This study, based on qualitative interviews conducted in July 2019, analyses how the infrastructure and power relations surrounding water governance have affected water security in the daily lives of Palestinians. It shows that while there are variations with regard to water access in the region, overall Palestinians in the Jordan Valley have serious difficulties in accessing acceptable quantities of water. In addition, they also experience water insecurities in terms of quality, distance and collection time, price and affordability, availability and reliability as well as safety. These water insecurities have had negative impacts on the physical, social and psychological well-being of Palestinians who are facing them. They affect women and girls to an even larger extent due to their productive and reproductive roles, that necessitate access to water (e.g., agricultural work, cleaning, cooking, bathing children) as well as due to their higher physiological water needs in comparison to men and boys, which are partly determined by social norms (e.g., wearing long hair and long clothes). The main obstacle to achieving water security for these people is the political context of the occupation with Israel having hegemonic control over transboundary water re-sources in terms of material, bargaining and ideational power. This is exemplified in the allocations of water resources and the management of water-related infrastructure according to the Oslo II Accord, that disadvantages the Palestinian side. The situation has further been worsened by the fragmented division of tasks related to the planning, regulation and distribution of water resources among the numerous Palestinian water sector actors, with women being rarely included in governance. Palestinians in the area have responded to shortcomings in terms of access to water with an array of flexible and adaptable strategies, such as storing water in tanks or reducing domestic water consumption. These strategies, also referred to as strategies of resilient resistance, as they show elements of both adaptation and resistance to the experienced conditions, are used on a daily basis, often in a combined manner, to improve water access. They are motivated by the connection between Palestinians and the land, which they believe should be protected from Israelis, as well as their lifestyles as farmers and herders. Refusing to submit to the control and ideology of the occupation, Palestinians also adopt the ideological and political strategy of ‘sumud’ (steadfastness) to continue with life despite the difficulties and insecurities they are facing. |
| Keywords: | water insecurities, water governance, hydro-hegemony, Palestinians, Jordan Valley, resistance, resilience, ‘sumud’ |
| Date: | 2020–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:124925&r=all |
| By: | George Naufal (Texas A&M University); Michael Malcom (West Chester University); Vidya Diwakar (Overseas Development Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between armed conflict intensity and child labor using household level data from Iraq and taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setup. Armed conflict intensity is measured as the number of deaths related to conflict and child labor is separated by type of work: economic and household. After controlling for individual and household characteristics that determine child labor, we find that armed conflict intensity is associated with a higher likelihood of economic child labor, but is not associated with changes in household labor. These results provide further evidence of the long-term costs of war on households. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflict, child labor, school attendance, MENA, Iraq JEL Classification: D74; J13; N35 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:282&r=all |
| By: | Ibouazzaouine, Youssef |
| Abstract: | The reform of State accounting and the transition from cash accounting to general accounting based on established rights which provides a heritage view of the State constitutes an essential lever to consolidate the culture of evaluation of the public action. Indeed, the adoption of asset accounting in accordance with international standards (IPSAS), aims to improve the information provided to public actors. It gives parliament, control bodies and citizens an appreciation of public policies, reinforcing the requirements for transparency of public accounts and the reissue of accounts. The purpose of this article is to decipher the challenges of the reform of state accounting and to identify the expected contributions from the adoption of an accounting framework harmonized with IPSAS standards. |
| Keywords: | State Accounting, Budget Accounting, Accrual Accounting, General Accounting, IPSAS. |
| JEL: | M4 |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98531&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Despite a challenging external environment, four successive PLL arrangements since 2012 have supported reforms to strengthen macroeconomic resilience, economic growth and inclusion. Yet, economic growth, below 3 percent, is not robust enough and unemployment remains high, especially among the youth and women. Growth is also subject to elevated risks, including weak economic growth in the euro area, and geopolitical risks. In this environment, Morocco needs to step up reforms to further enhance its macroeconomic resilience, build buffers, and move towards more private sector-led, inclusive and job-rich growth. Priority areas include: taxation; public governance and the fight against corruption; social spending to reduce inequalities; labor market and education reforms; and greater exchange rate flexibility. |
| Date: | 2020–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:20/14&r=all |
| By: | Knight,David Stephen; Portugal-Perez,Alberto; Nedeljkovic,Milan |
| Abstract: | Turkey has moved rapidly from a current account that was relatively in balance up to the turn of the millennia, to sustaining relatively large current account deficits over the past 15 years. Using annual data from 1986 to 2017 and a jackknife model-averaging estimator, the paper estimates the relationship between the current account balance and a set of determinants that are broadly consistent with the cross-country literature. These determinants include private sector credit, public expenditure, real exchange rate changes, gross domestic product growth relative to the rest of the world, trade openness, international oil prices, foreign direct investment levels, past net foreign assets, inflation volatility, and global levels of uncertainty. The analysis then decomposes the predicted current account balance for five-year periods to illustrate the factors that have driven the current account over time. Over 2003-07, a large current account deficit became established in Turkey, driven by an expansion of credit to households and rapid gross domestic product growth, coupled with improved macroeconomic stability that supported higher spending and therefore imports. Since then, the negative effect of household credit has abated, but was replaced in 2008-17 by an expansion of credit to the corporate sector as a driver of the current account deficit. The current account balance in Turkey is also found to be less persistent than is typically found in the cross-country literature, implying that it adjusts more rapidly in response to shocks. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Management,International Trade and Trade Rules,Inflation |
| Date: | 2019–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8982&r=all |
| By: | Mirko Draca; Jason Garred; Leanne Stickland; Nele Warrinnier |
| Abstract: | How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the e fficacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with substantial influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. We find that the stock returns of firms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed firms unconnected to these elites also benefit from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the `bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:licosp:648954&r=all |
| By: | Syed Zwick, Hélène |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss the on-the-job resilience strategies of mismatched workers. We empirically focus on Egyptian workers.Design/Methodology/Approach – This study relies on a primary micro-data collection based on design and implementation of a self-administered questionnaire survey and on the conduction of a series of semi-structured interviews. Findings – The results are fourfold: first, the combination of over-qualification and under-skilling is the most frequent in our sample; second, resilience strategies adopted by over-skilled workers mainly depend on mobility and entry to entrepreneurship; third, under-skilled workers do not enter entrepreneurship, but tend to rely on informal on-the-job learning and training opportunities. Fourth, religion and spirituality play a transversal role to cope with adversity for all of our interviewed workers. Originality/value – This study is unique as it draws our attention on factors of resilience for mismatched workers in a developing country, Egypt. |
| Keywords: | resilience strategies,skill mismatches,qualification mismatches,Egypt |
| JEL: | J24 E24 C81 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:477&r=all |
| By: | Althibah, Amir M.; Al Kebsi, Tarek; Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Tandon, Sharad A.; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Abstract: | In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018), the Yemeni economy may have contracted by about 40 percent between end-2014 and 2018. Sector-specific information on physical damages from the World Bank’s Yemen Dynamic Needs Assessment (World Bank 2018) suggests that damage was worst in the housing sector, where 33 percent of housing units have been either partially damaged or completely destroyed. The education, health, transport, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sectors have also been severely affected, with overall damage ranging from 27 percent (transport) to 31 percent (WASH). The power and ICT sectors have been somewhat less affected, with estimated damage levels of 13 percent and 11 percent, respectively. |
| Keywords: | YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, economic development, conflicts, economic growth, armed conflicts, war, governance, development aid, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:2&r=all |
| By: | Michalis Drouvelis; Bilal Malaeb; Michael Vlassopoulos; Jackline Wahba |
| Abstract: | Lebanon is the country with the highest density of refugees in the world, raising the question of whether the host and refugee populations can cooperate harmoniously. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment in Lebanon studying intra- and inter-group behavior of Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in a repeated public good game without and with punishment. We find that homogeneous groups, on average, contribute and punish significantly more than mixed groups. These patterns are driven by the Lebanese participants. Our findings suggest that it is equally important to provide adequate help to the host communities to alleviate any economic and social pressures. |
| Keywords: | refugees, public good game, cooperation, punishment |
| JEL: | D91 J50 F22 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8038&r=all |
| By: | Usman,Zainab; Amegroud,Tayeb |
| Abstract: | Morocco charted its own distinctive path of power sector reform. It selectively introduced private sector participation for generation capacity expansion and electricity distribution, while retaining a strong, state-owned and vertically-integrated national power utility operating as a single buyer at the core of the sector. Until recently, the country eschewed an independent regulatory entity. The power sector has been guided by strong top-down policy mandates that have served to align the disparate actions of political parties and sector institutions. Ambitious targets for electricity access, liberalization, and renewable energy investments were conceived as an integrated approach to contribute to economic development by relieving fiscal pressures, reducing external dependence on fossil fuels, and positioning the country as a regional leader in renewable energy. The results have been impressive. Since 1990, Morocco has more than tripled its power supply, while growing renewable energy to account for one-third of the total and relying on the private sector to supply just over half of the electricity generated. Rural electrification has accelerated rapidly from 18 percent in 1995 to virtually 100 percent in 2017. While operational efficiency has been broadly adequate, performance has fluctuated over time. Moreover, the sector?s achievements through this selective approach to reform have come somewhat at the expense of the financial viability of the incumbent utility, the National Office for Electricity and Water (ONEE), which has suffered from lack of cost-reflective tariff-setting and an array of entrenched cross-subsidies. Other vulnerabilities include the continued but declining dependence on electricity imports, external price volatilities of imported fossil fuels, and a territorialized electricity distribution model that could be disrupted by grid integration of renewable energy. |
| Keywords: | Energy Policies&Economics,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Renewable Energy,Rural and Renewable Energy,Power&Energy Conversion,Energy Sector Regulation |
| Date: | 2019–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8969&r=all |
| By: | Lucia Hanmer (The World Bank); Diana J. Arango (The World Bank); Eliana Rubiano (The World Bank); Julieth Santamaria (The World Bank); Mariana Viollaz (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Data collected for refugee registration and to target humanitarian assistance include information about household composition and demographics that can be used to identify gender- based vulnerabilities. This paper combines the microdata collected by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to register refugees with data from its Home Visit surveys to analyze income poverty rates among refugees with a gender lens. It finds distinguishing between different types of male and female principal applicant (PA) households is important in the setting of Syrian refugees in Jordan. Poverty rates for couples with children do not differ by gender of the PA but for other household types poverty rates are higher for those with female PAs. Households formed because of the unpredictable dynamics of forced displacement, such as sibling households, unaccompanied children, and single caregivers, are extremely vulnerable, especially if the principal applicant is a woman or a girl. |
| Keywords: | gender; refugees; household poverty; vulnerability; Syria; Jordan JEL Classification: 053; D10 I 132; J1 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:281&r=all |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Raouf, Mariam; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Abstract: | In addition to the unprecedented humanitarian crisis and the creation of space for militant groups, the conflict in Yemen is also taking a heavy toll on the economy. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018) together with information on physical damages from the World Bank-led Yemen Dynamic Damage and Needs Assessment (World Bank et al. 2018), the accumulated impact of the conflict from 2015 to 2018 is estimated to be USD47 billion (in 2014 prices), nearly one and a half times total GDP in 2014. The poverty headcount for Yemen is estimated to have increased from 49 percent in 2014 to 77 percent in 2018. The results of economic recovery scenarios run within a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model of the Yemeni economy suggest that unless significant support is provided by the international community for reconstruction, poverty in coming years, even if the conflict ends, will remain high or increase even further. Poverty outcomes of alternative post-conflict transition options range between a national poverty rate of 84 percent in the worst-case scenario of economic stagnation and 50 percent in the best-case scenario that involves the recovery of physical capital, total factor productivity (TFP) growth increases in all sectors, and significant inflows of foreign aid. Under a recovery scenario with lower foreign aid, the poverty headcount is projected to fall, but only modestly. Only under a recovery scenario with high aid inflows are poverty levels projected to be below pre-conflict levels by 2025. |
| Keywords: | YEMEN, ARAB COUNTRIES, MIDDLE EAST, SOUTHWESTERN ASIA, ASIA, agriculture, supply chain, food systems, agrifood systems, poverty, Agriculture Investment for Development Analyzer (AIDA), AIDA model, |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menapn:3&r=all |
| By: | Razzak, Weshah |
| Abstract: | In Razzak (2006), I argued that the state-ownership and the state-management of oil (on behalf of the Iraqi people) is not conducive to democracy and economic development. Iraqis have had dictators for decades. They were only able to maintain power by controlling the oil. The events of 2019 uprising confirmed that. I also argued that it could impoverish the average Iraqi citizen. This has become clear to everyone now. The statistics demonstrate that the average Iraqi is poor. The new political establishment has failed to develop the economy and squandered Iraq’s oil wealth. In 2006, I proposed a change to the Iraqi constitution regarding oil and provided a strategy of a gradual transfer oil wealth to the Iraqi people. In this paper, I revise my idea based on the new information that became available from the recent uprising of the Iraqi people in 2019, and argue for an immediate transfer of oil wealth to the Iraqi people. |
| Keywords: | Oil, private ownership, democracy,development |
| JEL: | P14 Q32 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98721&r=all |
| By: | Harkat, Tahar |
| Abstract: | Existing literature that assesses the nexus between economic development, primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions has been a point of interest for many scholars. Yet, there is no such existing literature that targets assessing such relationship for the case of Morocco. The following contribution determines the long run relationship between these variables using an autoregressive distributive lag model (ARDL) bound test that is developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Findings indicate that there is a significant co-integration between the variables of interest, meaning that the long run relationship between them exists. Findings also show that energy consumption has direct positive effect on economic growth but it may have larger negative effect on economic growth indirectly through higher carbon dioxide emissions. |
| Keywords: | GDP, Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, Long run relationship, ARDL Bound test, Co-integration, Morocco |
| JEL: | O13 P28 P48 Q43 |
| Date: | 2020–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98476&r=all |
| By: | Lopez, Claude; Bendix, Joseph; Servin, Cesar |
| Abstract: | The launch of the Bahrain FinTech Bay in 2018 was a significant step for Bahrain toward becoming a technology and innovation hub. It continues to develop its infrastructure to enable the developments using Fourth Industrial Revolutionrelevant technology while updating the corporate governance framework in an attempt to curtail investor uncertainty and exposure in the region. Bahrain differentiates itself from its larger neighbors by highlighting its well-trained population and low cost of living and running a business. This report shows that these factors, combined with an innovative regulatory environment, attract a more diversified pool of foreign investors, especially venture capital and other alternative financial investors in sectors such as information and technology or tourism. However, the recent emphasis on startups and technology brings challenges that could threaten the resilience of the new Bahraini economic model. First, most of the firms created have fewer than 10 employees, while Bahrain needs more medium sized companies to reach its economic goals. Second, the size of Bahrain’s labor market will not be able to accommodate the increasing demand for highly skilled workers. Third, the transition to a digitalized economy and its new requirements can be costly for existing firms, especially the smaller ones, which are the majority. Moving forward, these challenges could be alleviated by: - Helping micro firms grow. - Removing the remaining obstacles in hiring foreign workers in sectors where the qualified local labor supply is weak. - Ensuring that wages in the private sector are competitive. - Educating smaller firms on existing services that can help them transition to the digitalization of the economy. Finally, Bahrain’s ambition to become a technology, innovation, and talent hub could play a significant role in the region if the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries were to strengthen their economic coordination. |
| Keywords: | Bahrain, Capital flows, Reforms,competitiveness, technology |
| JEL: | F0 F1 F3 F6 H5 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98514&r=all |
| By: | Michele Di Maio (DISAE, University of Naples Parthenope, Naples, Italy); Roberto Nisticò (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples Federico II and CSEF, Naples, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of parental job loss on child school dropout in developing countries. We focus on Palestinian households living in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and having the household head employed in Israel during the Second Intifada (2000-2006). We exploit quarterly variation in conflict intensity across districts in the OPT to instrument for Palestinian workers’ job loss in Israel. Our 2SLS results show that parental job loss increases child school dropout probability by 9 percentage points. The effect varies with child and household characteristics. We provide evidence that the effect operates through the job loss-induced reduction in household income. |
| Keywords: | Job loss, school dropout, conflict, Second Intifada, Occupied Palestinian Territories, Israel JEL Classification: H56, I20, J63 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:295&r=all |
| By: | Tilman Brück (ISDC - International Security and Development Center and Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops); Marco d’Errico (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations); Rebecca Pietrelli (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how conflict affects household resilience capacity and food security, drawing on panel data collected from households in Palestine before and after the 2014 Gaza conflict. During this escalation of violence, the majority of the damages in the Gaza Strip were concentrated close to the Israeli border. Using the distance to the Israeli border to identify the effect of the conflict at the household level through an instrumental variable approach, we find that the food security of households in the Gaza Strip was not directly affected by the conflict. However, household resilience capacity that is necessary to resist food insecurity declined among Gazan households as a result of the conflict. This was mainly due to a reduction of adaptive capacity, driven by the deterioration of income stability and income diversification. However, the conflict actually increased the use of social safety nets (expressed in the form of cash, in-kind or other transfers that were received by the households) and access to basic services (mainly access to sanitation) for the households exposed to the conflict. This finding may be related to the support provided to households in the Gaza Strip by national and international organizations after the end of the conflict. From a policy perspective, the case of the conflict in the Gaza Strip demonstrates that immediate and significant support to victims of conflict can indeed help restore resilience capacity. |
| Keywords: | resilience, food security, conflict, Gaza Strip JEL Classification: D12 - D80 - I12 - I32 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:269&r=all |
| By: | Mohamed Abdel Jelil (Poverty Global Practice (World Bank)); Kartika Bhatia (Middle-East and North Africa Regional Unit (World Bank)); Anne Brockmeyer (Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice (World Bank) and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Quy-Toan Do (Research Department (World Bank)); CleÌ ment Joubert (Research Department (World Bank)) |
| Abstract: | Transnational terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State group (also known as ISIS/ISIL or Daesh) have shown an ability to attract radicalized individuals from many countries to join their ranks. Using a novel data set that reports countries of residence and educational levels of a large sample of Daesh’s foreign recruits, this paper finds that a lack of economic opportunities—measured by unemployment rates disaggregated by country and education level—explains foreign enrollment in the terrorist organization, especially for countries that are geographically closer to the Syrian Arab Republic. |
| Keywords: | transnational terrorism, unemployment, inclusion JEL Classification: F51, E26, Z12 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:273&r=all |
| By: | Ramadan, Alaa Mohamed; El-Rasoul, Ahmed Abou El-Yazid; Elsaify, Elhussien; Shehab, Sameh M. Hassan |
| Abstract: | The research problem is to answer the question: What are the main components of the production costs items for the most important field crops (wheat, rice, summer maize) in Egyptian agriculture? Are there changes in the area of these crops? In achieving its goals, the research relied on a descriptive and quantitative analysis method, relying on tabular and graphical presentation, percentages, engineering and mathematical averages, and growth rates, in addition to Runs Test, Factor Analysis using the major or fundamental component analysis method (PCA) for the most important Items of costs (workers’ wages, seeds, fertilizers, mechanization, other) of the field crops under study question. The research reached a number of results, including: •Wheat crop: From the test runs of the wheat crop area in the four geographical regions during the study period, it is noted that the number of courses during the study period reached two courses for the sea side, 4 courses in Middle Egypt, 6 courses for the tribal face and the total of the republic, and it is expected that the value of acre productivity in In 2024 to 20.9 million erdeb for Lower Egypt and Middle Egypt, 16.7 million erdeb for Upper Egypt, 20.7 million erdeb for the total Egypt. •Rice crop: Results of the test runs for the rice crop area in the four geographical regions during the study period. It is noted that the number of courses during the study period reached 8 courses for the sea side and the total of the republic, 11 courses in Middle Egypt, 7 courses for the tribal face, and it is expected that the value of acre productivity In the year 2024 to 3.4 million tons for Lower Egypt and the total Egypt, 3.5 million tons for Middle Egypt, 4.3 million tons for Upper Egypt. •Maize crop: Runs test for the rice crop area in the four geographical regions during the study period, from which it is noted that the number of courses during the study period reached 14 courses for Lower Egypt, 6 courses in Middle Egypt, 4 courses for Upper Egypt and the total of the Republic, and it is expected that the value of productivity will reach to 25.8 million erdeb in 2024 for Lower Egypt, 22.3 million erdeb for Middle Egypt, 17.8 million erdeb for Upper Egypt, 23.6 million erdeb for the total Egypt. تتمثل مشكلة البحث في الإجابة على التساؤلات التالية: ما هي المكونات الأساسية لبنود التكاليف الإنتاجية لأهم المحاصيل الحقلية (القمح، الأرز، الذرة الشامية الصيفية) في الزراعة المصرية؟ وهل هناك تغيرات فى المساحة لهذه المحاصيل؟ واعتمد البحث في تحقيق أهدافه على أسلوب التحليل الوصفي والكمي، معتمداً على العرض الجدولي والبياني، والنسب المئوية، والمتوسطات الحسابية والهندسية، ومعدلات النمو، بالإضافة إلى اختبار الأشواطRuns Test، تحليل العوامل Factor Analysis باستخدام طريقة تحليل المكون الرئيسي أو الأساسي Principle Component Analysis “PCA” لأهم بنود التكاليف (أجور العمال، التقاوي، الأسمدة، الميكنة، أخرى) للمحاصيل موضع البحث، وتوصل البحث إلى عدد من النتائج منها: • محصول القمح: من اختبار الأشواط لمساحة محصول القمح بالمناطق الجغرافية الثلاثة بالإضافة إلى إجمالي الجمهورية خلال فترة الدراسة، يُلاحظ أن عدد الدورات خلال فترة الدراسة بلغ دورتين للوجه البحري، 4 دورات في مصر الوسطى، 6 دورات للوجه القبلي وإجمالي الجمهورية، ومن المتوقع أن تصل قيمة الإنتاجية الفدانية في عام 2024 إلى 20.9 مليون أردب للوجه البحري ومصر الوسطى، 16.7 مليون أردب للوجه القبلي، 20.7 مليون أردب لإجمالي الجمهورية. • محصول الأرز: نتائج اختبار الأشواط لمساحة محصول الأرز بالمناطق الجغرافية الأربعة خلال فترة الدراسة، يُلاحظ أن عدد الدورات خلال فترة الدراسة بلغ 8دورات للوجه البحري وإجمالي الجمهورية، 11 دورات في مصر الوسطى، 7 دورات للوجه القبلي، ومن المتوقع أن تصل قيمة الإنتاجية الفدانية في عام 2024 إلى 3.4 مليون طن للوجه البحريوإجمالي الجمهورية، 3.5 مليون طن لمصر الوسطى، 4.3 مليون طن للوجه القبلي. • محصول الذرة الشامية: اختبار الأشواط لمساحة محصول الأرز بالمناطق الجغرافية الأربعة خلال فترة الدراسة، ومنها يُلاحظ أن عدد الدورات خلال فترة الدراسة بلغ 14 دورة للوجه البحري، 6 دورات في مصر الوسطى، 4 دورات للوجه القبلي وإجمالي الجمهورية، ومن المتوقع أن تصل قيمة الإنتاجية الفدانية في عام 2024 إلى 25.8 مليون أردب للوجه البحري، 22.3 مليون أردب لمصر الوسطى، 17.8 مليون أردب للوجه القبلي، 23.6 مليون أردب لإجمالي الجمهورية. الكلمات الدليلية: تحليل العوامل Factor Analysis، اختبار الأشواط Runs Test، التنبؤ، الإنتاجية. |
| Keywords: | Factor Analysis, Runs Test, Prediction, Growth Rate. |
| JEL: | O11 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98652&r=all |
| By: | الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; عبدالراضي, صابرين صبره; عون, أد/ عون خيرالله; عبدالرازق, د ياسمين صلاح |
| Abstract: | The research aimed to study the causes and sources of inflation in the Egyptian economy and the agricultural sector, and to analyze the indicators and measures of that phenomenon at the two levels during the period 1995-2016. A number of indices were used, namely: the urban consumer price index, the rural consumer price index, the general consumer price index, the producer price index, and the implicit index. By tracking the evolution of changes in the price level during the study period, it was found that those indexes have taken an upward trend along the time series under study, and the index numbers have doubled from three to four times, which confirms the suffering of the Egyptian economy from high inflation rates. The results of using the criterion of the cash stability factor that showed positive along the length of the chain also showed the size of the gap between the value of real GDP and the size of the money supply in the sense of M1 and M2. While the increase in the real GDP reached 159.60%, the increase in the size of the money supply About 1711% and 1373%, respectively. The results also showed that the surplus of demand began to appear from 2012 and continued to increase until it reached its maximum in 2016. As for the net surplus of demand, it began to appear from 2014 to 2016, and its maximum reached in 2016 with an increase estimated at 93.20%. As for the agricultural sector as one of the pivotal sectors in the national economy, a number of agricultural indices were analyzed that reflected the extent of the phenomenon of inflation in the agricultural sector, and the factors causing inflation in the agricultural sector can be classified into factors outside the agricultural sector that affect the presence of inflation within the sector, including the budget deficit The general state of the country, the money supply surplus, the deficit in the trade balance, which are the same factors that caused inflation in the Egyptian economy, in addition to internal factors specific to the agricultural sector, such as poor distribution and use of agricultural resources, a low percentage of For the self-sufficiency of some crops, especially food ones, and the high cost of agricultural production requirements, in addition to a group of other factors addressed in the research. استهدف البحث دراسة أسباب ومصادر التضخم في الاقتصاد المصري وفي القطاع الزراعي، و تحليل مؤشرات ومقاييس تلك الظاهرة على المستوىين خلال الفترة 1995-2016. وقد تم الاستعانة بعدد من الأرقام القياسية وهي: الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلكين بالحضر، الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلكين بالريف، الرقم القياسي العام لأسعار المستهلكين، الرقم القياسي لأسعار المنتجين، الرقم القياسي الضمني. وبتتبع تطور التغيرات على مستوى الأسعار خلال فترة الدراسة تبين أن تلك الأرقام القياسية قد سلكت اتجاهاً تصاعدياً على طول السلسلة الزمنية محل الدراسة وقد تضاعفت الأرقام القياسية خلالها من ثلاث لأربع مرات وهو ما يؤكد معاناة الاقتصاد المصري من معدلات تضخم عالية. كما أظهرت نتائج استخدام معيار معامل الاستقرار النقدي الذي ظهر موجباً على مدى طول السلسلة حجم الفجوة بين قيمة الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي وحجم المعروض النقدي بمفهوميه M1 ، M2 ففي حين بلغت نسبة الزيادة في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي 159.60%، بلغت نسبة الزيادة في حجم المعروض النقدي نحو 1711%، 1373% على الترتيب. كما أظهرت النتائج أن فائض الطلب قد بدأ بالظهور من عام 2012 واستمر بالزيادة حتى بلغ أقصاه عام 2016 أما عن صافي فائض الطلب فقد بدأ بالظهور من عام 2014 حتى عام 2016، وبلغ حده الأقصى عام 2016 بنسبة زيادة قدرت بنحو 93.20%. أما بالنسبة للقطاع الزراعي كأحد القطاعات المحورية في الاقتصاد القومي فقد تم تحليل عدد من الأرقام القياسية الزراعية التي عكست المدي الذي وصلت اليه ظاهرة التضخم بالقطاع الزراعي ويمكن تصنيف العوامل المسببة للتضخم في القطاع الزراعي إلى عوامل خارج القطاع الزراعي تؤثر على وجود التضخم داخل القطاع منها عجز الموازنة العامة للدولة، فائض المعروض النقدي، العجز في الميزان التجاري وهي ذات العوامل التي كانت سبباً في وجود التضخم على مستوى المقتصد المصري، إضافة إلى عوامل داخلية يختص بها القطاع الزراعي مثل سوء توزيع واستخدام الموارد الزراعية، انخفاض نسبة الاكتفاء الذاتي من بعض المحاصيل وخاصةً الغذائية منها وارتفاع تكلفة مستلزمات الإنتاج الزراعية إضافة إلى مجموعة من العوامل الأخرى تناولها البحث. |
| Keywords: | التضخم، التنمية الاقتصادية، النمو الاقتصادي، الأرقام القياسية. Inflation, Economic Development, Economic Growth, index Numbers. |
| JEL: | E5 E52 Q11 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98743&r=all |