|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Aghabarari,Leila; Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. In addition, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several Western countries and Japan. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and developed countries. Over 1964-2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with real gross domestic product growth. They only explain a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil exporters and oil importers. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Oil&Gas,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Conditions and Volatility |
| Date: | 2019–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9602&r=all |
| By: | Clementi,Fabio; Khan,Haider Ali Daud; Molini,Vasco; Schettino,Francesco; Soudi,Khalid |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data obtained from three Moroccan household surveys that took place between 2000 to 2013, to address issues related to the so-called"Arab puzzle."Welfare inequalities are low and declining in Arab countries and exist against the backdrop of a growing sense of dissatisfaction and frustration. The paper hypothesizes that welfare inequality plays a role, if seen through the lens of absolute measures and notably absolute polarization. The paper argues that the relatively worse perception of poor, vulnerable, and lower middle-class Moroccan households mirrors the ongoing hollowing out of the welfare distribution process and its concentration in the tails. The results of a multi-logit regression indicate that polarization is significantly correlated to perception and, importantly, that this correlation is asymmetric. The poorer are the households, the more polarization is perceived to link negatively to the well-being of households; and the richer are the households, the more polarization will positively correlate with their perceived well-being. The results are robust to the use of classes or quintiles for ranking social groups from the poorest to the richest. |
| Date: | 2019–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9049&r=all |
| By: | Maia Sieverding (American University of Beirut); Rasha Hassan (Population Council Egypt Country Office) |
| Abstract: | There is a well-established relationship between economic vulnerability and health. The study of this relationship is complicated by reverse causality – poor economic outcomes contribute to poor health and poor health can lead to worse economic outcomes. Yet even descriptive studies of the relationship between economic and health outcomes are lacking in the Middle East and North Africa region. The Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018 includes a range of new health measures, including the UN-Washington Group disability instrument, self-rated health, and the WHO-5 subjective wellbeing scale that allow us for the first time to conduct a detailed examination of the associations between economic vulnerability and health in the Egyptian population. We find a substantial burden of poor health among the working age and older populations in Egypt, particularly along measures of disability and subjective wellbeing. Several groups emerge as particularly vulnerable to poor health across health outcomes, including divorced women, the urban poor and particularly poor urban women, and those in precarious and hazardous forms of employment. Further multivariate studies are needed to disentangle the relationships between multiple forms of economic vulnerability and poor health |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1364&r=all |
| By: | Cem Özgüzel (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Spatial inequalities in Turkey are a source of considerable policy concern. In this paper, I estimate agglomeration effects for Turkish provinces to shed light on the origins of spatial inequality in productivity and provide evidence from a developing country context which literature needs. I use social security data, an administrative dataset recently made available at the NUTS-3 level, for 81 provinces of Turkey for the period 2008-2013 and carry out a twostep estimation. I use a variety of panel data techniques and historical instruments to deal with estimation concerns. I estimate an elasticity of labor productivity with respect to the density of 0.056-0.06, which is higher than in developed countries and around the levels observed in developing countries. Contrasting the evidence coming from developed countries, I find weak effects for sorting of workers across Turkish provinces based on observable characteristics. |
| Date: | 2019–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1341&r=all |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Ragui Assaad (s, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue S, Minneapolis, MN); Khandker Wahedur Rahman (University of Minnesota, 1994 Ruttan Hall, St. Paul, MN) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the 2018 wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), previously fielded in 1998, 2006, and 2012. These publicly-available longitudinal data are nationally representative, tracking both households and individuals over two decades. In this paper, we describe key characteristics of the 2018 wave, including sampling, fielding, and questionnaire design. We examine patterns of attrition and present the construction of weights designed to correct for attrition, as well as to ensure the sample remains nationally representative. We compare the ELMPS data to other Egyptian data sources, namely the 2017 Census and various rounds of the Labor Force Survey. The data provide important new insights into Egypt’s labor market, economy, and society. |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1360&r=all |
| By: | Reham Rizk (British University in Cairo); Ali Rashed (Economic Research Forum) |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a detailed analysis of the trends and patterns of women’s role in household non-agricultural enterprises in Egypt. The paper uses the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) waves of 1998, 2006, 2012 and 2018. First, the paper examines whether households have enterprises and how this varies across female and male-headed households over time. Second, it investigates whether men and women own enterprises and how this differs by their characteristics. Third, it investigates the characteristics of women-owned enterprises vis-à-vis men. Finally, it examines the gendered patterns of participation in enterprises. The findings demonstrate that women are less likely to engage in or own non-agricultural enterprises than men. Although the trend in participation in enterprises has been declining for men, it has been flat for women. Women-owned enterprises are more likely to be informal, have less capital, and be homebased |
| Date: | 2019–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1369&r=all |
| By: | Lamia Mokaddem (University of Tunis El Manar); Imtinen ben Saied (University of Tunis El Manar) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of regional development which is based on a method developed by the World Bank called the Human Opportunity Index, which quantifies the total contribution of individual socioeconomic and demographic circumstances to inequality of opportunity in accessing basic services in 6 Tunisian regions and for three years 2005, 2010 and 2015. s. We use the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to determine the weighting factors of the. Regional composite Human Opportunity Index (RCHOI). This regional development index makes it possible to compare the disparities in the level of development between regions, and the results show that Tunisia experienced during two periods considerable disparities between the different regions. The interior region of the country, particularly the central-western region, and north-west, lag behind other regions, and thus occupy the latest development rankings compared to coastal areas. |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1375&r=all |
| By: | Burhan Can Karahasan (Piri Reis University); Firat Bilgel (Istanbul Okan University) |
| Abstract: | Economic inequality and poverty have been extensively analyzed in monetary terms and the ability to reach a certain income level has been regarded as an important dimension of poverty. However, other aspects of poverty, such as education, health, environment and standards of living are important factors that are also essential for human well-being. Using a host of nonmonetary aspects of poverty, this paper sheds light on the geographical distribution of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. Results from survey data highlight that the regional distribution non-monetary dimensions of poverty is conspicuously different than that of monetary poverty in Turkey |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1374&r=all |
| By: | Hassan Hakimian (Hamad Bin Khalifa University) |
| Abstract: | A copious literature on resource curse correlates oil rents with poor economic outcomes in resource-rich economies. The common yardstick for evaluating economic performance in these countries is generally GDP growth rates. This paper focuses on the broader question of whether the oil-exporters in the MENA region in general and in the GCC states in particular have been successful in turning their hydrocarbon wealth for the benefit of their population at large. To find out if their experience has been conducive to 'inclusive growth', we compute a novel Inclusive Growth Index and its associated rankings for 154 countries to shed light on their performance both over time and in a comparative context. The results show a marked deterioration in the case of MENA’s oil-exporting countries over the period 2001-5 and 2006- 10 particularly marred by a poor record in job creation, especially for their young population. |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1380&r=all |
| By: | Anda David (Agence Française de DéveloppementAuthor-Name: Nelly El-Mallakh; Paris School of Economics, Institut Convergences Migrations, and Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University); Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between internal, international, and return migration in Egypt. Using the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), this paper documents the evolution and patterns of internal migration over time. We examine patterns and trends of international and return migration, as well as the characteristics of international and return migrants. We then investigate the relationship between internal and international migration. We find evidence that internal migration has been rather low in Egypt. However, international migration rates have been rather high and prominent across all educational groups. Suggestive evidence indicates that individuals tend to engage in one type of migration only and that few engage in both internal and international migration |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1366&r=all |
| By: | Alaya Marouane (Sfax University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the determinant of FDI in MENA countries by focusing on the geographical interferences within the region. The econometric results from alternative tests on a panel of 13 MENA for the period 1990-2015 show a negative spatial interdependence in MENA region in term of inbound FDI. The results go with the theory predictions and match well with the pure vertical nature of FDI prevailing in the region. Length:34 |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1361&r=all |
| By: | Hajer Habib (Tunis El-Manar); Ghazi Boulila (l’Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Économiques et Commerciales de Tunis. Directeur de l’Unité de recherche: Développement Financier et Innovation (DEFI)) |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1371&r=all |
| By: | Tunali, Insan (Koc University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Bogazici University); Dayioglu-Tayfur, Meltem (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel approach. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. We rely on predictions from just-identified models that render different methods comparable. The exercise is carried out by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior, and to test hypotheses about the course of participation. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. Notably all methods reveal an M-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. This implies that the recent rise in the aggregate participation rates is not only due to a composition effect arising from increasing education levels. We also show that Turkey has reached the turning point of the U-shaped pattern in female participation. In addition, we dwell on methodological issues and offer explanations for the fragility of the methods. We establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the crosssection age profiles is responsible for the apparent differences in the findings. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, U-hypothesis, synthetic birth cohort analysis, age-participation profiles, cohort effects, M-shaped profile, culture |
| JEL: | J21 C18 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12844&r=all |
| By: | Imane Helmy (Independent Consultant); Rania Roushdy (Department of Economics, School of Business, the American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature points to the role of exposure to shocks in reducing economic resilience. While all households are negatively affected by various shocks, poor households are more likely to be exposed to different risks. This paper uses the 2018 round of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) to examine the nature of shocks experienced by different socioeconomic groups of households and the ex-post coping mechanisms that were adopted. The results show that almost a quarter of the Egyptian households experienced food insecurity either solely or in combination with shocks. Economic shocks were the most common distress followed by health shocks during the year preceding the ELMPS interview. Household used consumption rationing or depended on their social capital as a coping mechanism in response to a shock or food insecurity. Households whose heads had less than intermediate education, or worked in the informal private sector or agriculture, or were self-employed were more likely to have experienced a shock. Also, households residing in rural areas, particularly in Upper Egypt, or with large family size were more vulnerable to shocks during the study period. |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1362&r=all |
| By: | Yann Emmanuel Sonagnon Miassi (Çukurova University); Fabrice Kossivi Dossa (Université de Parakou); Bernadin Agani (Çukurova University) |
| Date: | 2018–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02423624&r=all |
| By: | Kurdi, Sikandra; Breisinger, Clemens; Ibrahim, Hosam; Ghorpade, Yashodhan; Al-Ahmadi, Afrah |
| Abstract: | An impact evaluation of Yemen’s Cash for Nutrition program provides new evidence of the benefits of “cash plus†transfer programs to meet nutritional needs in conflict situations. Conflict has become a major driver of humanitarian crises globally, requiring responses that not only meet people’s immediate need for calories, but also ensure that aid recipients, especially children and pregnant women, receive adequate diet to avoid long-term impacts of malnutrition. The program in Yemen combined cash transfers with nutritional education using soft conditionality, with significant positive impacts on maternal and child dietary diversity, children’s height and weight measures, and the likelihood of children being diagnosed with moderate or severe acute malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | YEMEN; ARAB COUNTRIES; MIDDLE EAST; SOUTHWESTERN ASIA; ASIA; nutrition; nutrition policies; evaluation; impact assessment; conflicts; cash transfer programs; cash transfers |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:polbrf:9780896293601&r=all |
| By: | Sara B. Alnashar (The World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | Is government debt solely a fiscal phenomenon? This paper aims to understand what drives government debt in Egypt. Towards this end, a debt decomposition exercise is undertaken, using annual data for FY2001/02—FY2016/17 to disentangle and quantify the cumulative impacts of the primary deficit to GDP ratio, movements in the exchange rate, the real interest rate, and real growth. Additionally, a Vector-Autoregression analysis is conducted, using quarterly data for FY2004/05—FY2016/17, including the same variables of interest, but also accounting for the borrowing by the public business sector (that is, to capture extra-budgetary obligations). The findings from both the debt decomposition as well as the VAR estimation show that the primary deficit and the exchange rate depreciations have been the leading causes of debt accumulation in Egypt. Importantly, the analysis also points to extra-budgetary (below-theline) items that have been contributing to higher-than-warranted government debt accumulation. Further, this research provides evidence that the domestic debt is partially inflated away, as the real interest rates have been negative for the larger part of the periods under study. The bottom-line of this research is that Egypt’s government debt is a multi-faceted problem, finding its roots not only in fiscal policy, but also in exchange rate policy, as well as in key fiscal transparency issues |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1376&r=all |
| By: | Mona Said (American University in Cairo); Rami Galal; Mina Sami |
| Abstract: | This paper explores trends in wage and income levels and inequality and mobility in Egypt, especially since 2012. Data are from the 1998, 2006, 2012, and 2018 waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). The findings point to declining real wages and incomes and a rise in inequality between 2012 and 2018. As a result, the share of wage workers below the low waged line (the working poor) has increased, especially for older workers, workers with higher education, and government workers. Circumstances, such as parental background and area of birth, have continued to play an important role in determining individuals’ wages. Focusing on the panel of individuals present in multiple waves of the survey, mobility since 2006 has remained mostly unchanged. The wage workers who tended to fare better from 2012 to 2018 were males, those in the public sector, and those with higher skills and education, however the differences across subgroups were not large. The deteriorating relative wage position of women in the private sector and increase in the working poor as a result of real wage declines require policy action to reverse those trends. |
| Date: | 2019–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1368&r=all |
| By: | Tsoungui Belinga,Vincent De Paul; Doukali,Mohamed |
| Abstract: | The Phillips curve is central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. In particular, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is a valuable tool to describe how past inflation, expected future inflation, and real marginal cost or an output gap drive the current inflation rate. However, economists have had difficulty applying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to real-world data due to empirical limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations by using an identification-robust estimation method called the Tikhonov Jackknife instrumental variables estimator. Data from Morocco are used to examine the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve to explain Moroccan inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that by adding more information to the hybrid version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model by increasing the number of moment conditions, the inflation dynamics in Morocco can be well-described by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. This framework suggests that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve would be a strong candidate for short-run inflation forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Management,Inflation,Financial Structures,International Trade and Trade Rules,Economic Stabilization |
| Date: | 2019–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9018&r=all |
| By: | Irene Selwaness (Cairo University); Maye Ehab (University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state of social protection in Egypt using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys of 1998, 2006, 2012 and 2018. First, we focus on issues of social insurance coverage at work, how it evolved over time, and the time it takes to acquire social insurance. Second, we examine the patterns of social protection benefits receipt at the household level. We analyze the coverage of the newly launched conditional cash transfer programs Takaful and Karama as well as the smart food ration cards. Finally, as a component of social protection, we examine health insurance coverage rates. Findings suggest that the social insurance coverage gap widened among all workers, particularly in private sector wage employment, for both men and women. This was likely due to the expansion of outside of establishment wage work, highlighting issues of increased vulnerability at work. Moreover, the coverage gap does not close with years of work and is highly contingent on the type of first job, suggesting an informality trap. As for social protection benefits receipt, the most common type of benefits was retirement or social assistance pensions. If the social insurance coverage gap continues to widen, such benefits receipt would be strongly affected. Finally, women, and in particular rural women, as well as youth aged 20-24 were the most vulnerable in terms of health insurance coverage. |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1363&r=all |
| By: | Dilara Ertug; Pinar Ozlu; M. Utku Ozmen; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the extent to which the use of imported inputs affects exchange rate and import price pass-through into domestic producer and consumer prices for services in Turkey. We first calculate the use of imported inputs on sectoral level by analyzing the input-output tables. Then, by taking the sectoral heterogeneity regarding the use of imported inputs into account, we estimate import price and exchange rate pass-through by utilizing import prices, producer prices (consumer prices for services) and output gap on sectoral basis. Our results point to a substantial heterogeneity across sectors in terms of exchange rate and import price pass-through. While the import price (in foreign currency) pass-through is in line with the share of imported input to a large extent, the pass-through of exchange rate shocks to domestic prices are generally higher than the share of imported inputs in costs inclusive of labor. Our findings also reveal that this excess exchange rate pass-through has strengthened over the recent period. Additional analyses carried out reveal that the high share of foreign currency debt is associated with higher exchange rate pass-through, suggesting that the management of foreign exchange liability might play a critical role to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and to create room for maneuver to fight against inflation by reducing the excess exchange rate pass-through. |
| Keywords: | Imported inputs, Import price pass-through, Exchange rate pass-through, FX liability |
| JEL: | D57 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2003&r=all |
| By: | Caitlyn Keo (Caroline Kraff); Caroline Kraff (St. Catherine University); Luca Fedi (International Labour Organization) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the lives and livelihoods of rural women in Egypt. Rural women have lower economic participation, by standard measures, than urban women or men. This paper introduced additional measures of economic participation and found that standard measures vastly underestimated the economic engagement of rural women. These additional measures also allowed us to better delineate the nature of women’s contributions to the economy and society. Rural women were frequently engaged in tending livestock, in household non-farm enterprises, and domestic work. Rural women had distinct patterns of family formation, with higher rates of early marriage than urban women and higher fertility rates. Although gender role attitudes were equitable in some respects, such as gender equality in education, other aspects, such as attitudes towards work and domestic violence, showed rural women were particularly vulnerable. |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1359&r=all |
| By: | Ahmet Ozturk (SESRIC) |
| Abstract: | 1970s witnessed violent, widespread, and highly-politicized student protests in Turkey. Small protests turned into bloody street clashes, the death toll exceeded 5,000, and a military coup came in—which resulted in mass arrests. Universities were at the center of the conflict and violence. We present a comprehensive empirical analysis of the education and labor market consequences of this political turmoil on cohorts directly exposed to educational disruptions. First, we document that the number of new admissions and graduates in post-secondary education declined significantly due to the turmoil. We report the decline in post-secondary graduation ratio to be around 6.6-7 percentage points for the exposed individuals. Second, we estimate a counterfactual wage distribution for the exposed cohorts using semi-parametric methods and check whether the turmoil affected the wage and occupation distributions. We find that the decline in educational attainment due to the turmoil pushed the exposed population toward medium- and low-income occupations, and compressed their wages toward the minimum wage. Finally, we use the unexpected decline in educational attainment as an IV to estimate returns to schooling. Our IV estimates suggest that the returns to an additional year of schooling range between 11.6-14 percent for men. In a heterogeneous-outcome framework, these IV estimates can be interpreted as the average causal effect of an additional year of schooling in post-secondary education |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1377&r=all |
| By: | Maye Ehab Samy (University of Bamberg) |
| Abstract: | Youth in Egypt suffer from high rates of unemployment and inactivity. They are also heavily affected by the widespread use of informal employment. This paper addresses the effects of employment trans-itions on the health of youth in Egypt. It specifically focuses on the effect of temporary and informal employment compared to non-employment on the psychological health of youth. Using data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt for the years 2009 and 2014, I identify the causal effects of various employment transitions on mental health outcomes by estimating a matched difference-in-differences. Results show that the transition from nonemployment to employment improves the individual’s mental health in general. There are differences in the magnitude of the effect according to gender and the type of employment where those in informal and temporary employment have lower improvements compared to formal and permanent employment. |
| Date: | 2019–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1365&r=all |
| By: | Drouvelis, Michalis (University of Birmingham); Malaeb, Bilal (London School of Economics); Vlassopoulos, Michael (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | Lebanon is the country with the highest density of refugees in the world, raising the question of whether the host and refugee populations can cooperate harmoniously. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment in Lebanon studying intra- and inter-group behavior of Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals in a repeated public good game without and with punishment. We find that homogeneous groups, on average, contribute and punish significantly more than mixed groups. These patterns are driven by the Lebanese participants. Our findings suggest that it is equally important to provide adequate help to the host communities to alleviate any economic and social pressures. |
| Keywords: | refugees, public good game, cooperation, punishment |
| JEL: | D91 J5 F22 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12858&r=all |
| By: | Laurent Mériade (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - Clermont Auvergne - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Abdelbari El Khamlichi (CRCGM - Centre de Recherche Clermontois en Gestion et Management - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand); Abdelhak Sahib Eddine (Université d'El Jadida) |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02276771&r=all |
| By: | Tumen, Semih (TED University); Ulucan, Hakan (Pamukkale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of a targeted panic button program–implemented in two Turkish provinces between 2012 and 2016–on domestic violence against women. Diff-in-diff and synthetic control estimates suggest that the program notably increased physical domestic violence against women both at the extensive and intensive margins. Specifically, we find that the likelihood of physical domestic violence against women in the treated provinces increased by more than 5 percentage points relative to the control provinces, and the number of domestic physical violence incidents against women increased by around 10 percent. The increase comes almost entirely from the increase in violence against less-educated women with high fertility. We show that employment rates and economic independence indicators have improved for those women in the treated provinces, which suggests that the program have economically empowered and encouraged vulnerable women. However, partners/husbands of those women started using more physical violence in response to female empowerment. Our results are consistent with the "male backlash" theories and a class of non-cooperative models incorporating domestic violence as a vehicle/instrument for enhancing bargaining power, but inconsistent with the models predicting that economic empowerment of women reduces domestic violence against them by balancing bargaining power within the household. We also develop a method to understand whether the increase is attributable to actual or self-reported violence. We conclude that the estimates are entirely driven by the increase in actual rather than self-reported violence. |
| Keywords: | female empowerment, male backlash, panic button, domestic violence, bargaining |
| JEL: | J12 J16 K36 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12847&r=all |
| By: | Fahkri Hasanov; Fred Joutz; Jeyhun Mikayilov; Muhammad Javid (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. |
| Keywords: | Autometrics, Energy Price Reform, Equillibrium correction, General to Specific Modeling Strategy, Macroeconomics, Vision 2030 |
| Date: | 2020–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp04&r=all |
| By: | Monira Essa Aloud; Sara Al-Rashood; Ina Ganguli; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | How important are social constraints and information gaps in explaining the low rates of female labor force participation (FLFP) in conservative societies that are undergoing social change? To answer this question, we conducted a field experiment embedded in a survey of female university students at a large public university in Saudi Arabia. We randomly provided one subset of individuals with information on the labor market and aspirations of their female peers (T1), while another subset was provided with this information along with a prime that made the role of parents and family more salient (T2). We find that expectations of working among those in the Control group are quite high, yet students underestimate the expected labor force attachment of their female peers. We show that information matters: relative to the Control group, expectations about own labor force participation are significantly higher in the T1 group. We find little evidence that dissemination of information is counteracted by local gender norms: impacts for the T2 group are significant and often larger than those for T1 group. However, T2 leads to higher expectations of working in Education - a sector that is socially more acceptable for women. |
| JEL: | D80 D83 J10 J20 Z10 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26693&r=all |
| By: | Dang,Hai-Anh H.; Verme,Paolo |
| Abstract: | The increasing growth of forced displacement worldwide has led to the stronger interest of various stakeholders in measuring poverty among refugee populations. However, refugee data remain scarce, particularly in relation to the measurement of income, consumption, or expenditure. This paper offers a first attempt to measure poverty among refugees using cross-survey imputations and administrative and survey data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Jordan. Employing a small number of predictors currently available in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees registration system, the proposed methodology offers out-of-sample predicted poverty rates. These estimates are not statistically different from the actual poverty rates. The estimates are robust to different poverty lines, they are more accurate than those based on asset indexes or proxy means tests, and they perform well according to targeting indicators. They can also be obtained with relatively small samples. Despite these preliminary encouraging results, it is essential to replicate this experiment across countries using different data sets and welfare aggregates before validating the proposed method. |
| Date: | 2019–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9076&r=all |
| By: | Loewe, Markus; Trautner, Bernhard; Zintl, Tina |
| Abstract: | Le contrat social est un concept clé des sciences sociales portant sur les relations entre l'État et la société. Il renvoie à l'en-semble des accords explicites ou implicites intervenant entre tous les groupes sociaux concernés et le souverain (c.-à-d. le gouvernement ou tout autre acteur au pouvoir), définissant leurs droits et obligations mutuels (Loewe & Zintl, à paraître). L'analyse des contrats sociaux permet de mieux comprendre : (i) pourquoi certains groupes sociaux sont mieux positionnés que d'autres sur les plans social, politique ou économique, (ii) pourquoi certains se révoltent et revendiquent un nouveau contrat social et, par conséquent, (iii) ce qui peut amener un pays à sombrer dans un conflit violent. En outre, le concept montre en quoi les interventions étrangères peuvent influer sur les relations entre l'État et la société en renforçant la position du souverain ou celle de groupes sociaux donnés. Il montre que l'inclusion insuffisante de certains groupes peut provoquer une fragilité de l'État, des déplacements et des migrations. Cependant, jusqu'à présent, aucune définition convenable ni aucune expression concrète n'ont encore été données au terme "contrat social" - au détriment de la recherche et de la coopération internationale. Ce type d'approche analytique structurée des relations entre l'État et la société est impératif, tant dans la recherche que dans la politique, dans la région MENA et au-delà. Le présent document d'information définit un cadre, suggérant une analyse de (i) la portée des contrats sociaux, (ii) leur substance et (iii) leur dimension temporelle. Après l'indépendance, les gouvernements de la région MENA ont établi un type de contrat social spécifique avec les citoyens, essentiellement basé sur la redistribution des rentes. Ils ont permis aux citoyens d'accéder à l'énergie et aux denrées alimentaires à prix subventionnés, à une éducation publique gratuite et à des emplois dans la fonction publique, en contrepartie de la reconnaissance tacite de la légitimité des régimes politiques, et ce malgré un manque de participation politique. Mais face à la croissance démographique et à la baisse des recettes publiques, certains gouvernements n'ont plus pu s'acquitter de leurs obligations et ont concentré leurs dépenses sur des groupes d'importance stratégique, subordonnant l'octroi de ressources à l'assentiment politique. Les soulèvements de 2011 dans de nombreux pays arabes expriment alors une insatisfaction profonde vis-à-vis des contrats sociaux qui n'assuraient plus ni la participation à la vie politique, ni l'octroi d'avantages sociaux substantiels (au moins pour une grande partie de la population). À la suite, les pays de la région MENA ont pris des directions différentes. La Tunisie a déjà avancé vers un dé-veloppement plus inclusif et une participation politique accrue. Le Maroc et la Jordanie essaient de rétablir certains volets de leur ancien contrat social, sur la base d'un modèle paternaliste, sans participation substantielle. Dans le contrat social émergeant en Égypte, le gouvernement ne promet pas plus que la sécurité individuelle et collective, et uniquement en contrepartie d'un assentiment politique total. La Libye, le Yémen et la Syrie sont tombés dans la guerre civile sans qu'aucun nouveau contrat ne se dessine au niveau national, et l'Irak se bat pour en établir un. Et les mouvements de fuite et de migration affectent également les contrats sociaux de pays voisins comme la Jordanie, la Turquie et le Liban. Tous les pays de la région MENA devront œuvrer à la mise en place de nouveaux contrats sociaux aux fins de réduire l'instabilité actuelle et favoriser leur reconstruction physique. Le présent document propose un point sur la dimension conceptuelle de la renégociation de ces contrats et leur importance pour la coopération internationale avec ces pays. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diebps:52020&r=all |
| By: | Ebaidalla Ebaidalla |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the drivers of inequality of opportunity in health outcome among children below 5 years of age, using the Sudanese 2014 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey.It investigates the variation in inequality across and within regions, decomposing inequality into a portion that is due to inequality of opportunity and a portion due to other factors, such as random variations in health. The results of the generalized entropy measures indicate that the overall inequality in child health is high, particularly in poor and conflict-affected regions.The contribution of inequality of opportunity to total inequality in child health outcome is found to be substantial and varies, both across and within regions. The results also reveal that the share of circumstances in inequality of opportunity in child health varies significantly according to health indicator and geographic region. Specifically, geographic location, parents’ education, and parental wealth are found to be the principal factors contributing to inequality of opportunity in child health outcome. |
| Keywords: | Health,Children,Inequality of opportunities |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-86&r=all |
| By: | Shoshana Neuman; Yael Goldfarb |
| Abstract: | Low employability among specific populations (e.g., religious/traditional women, the elderly, disabled workers, immigrants) has unfavorable consequences on the: unemployed individual, society, and the state economy. The latter include: poverty, a heavy toll on welfare budgets, diminished growth, and an increase in the "dependency ratio". We suggest a rather novel policy (borrowed from the field of Career Psychology) that could lead to successful integration into the labor market of low-employability populations: the design of tailor-made training programs that respond to work motives; coupled with a working environment that caters to special needs/ restrictions; and complemented with counseling and monitoring. The suggested strategy was illustrated and investigated using a case study of Israeli ultra-religious women, who exhibit lower employment rates than other Israeli women. The motives behind their occupational choices were explored based on data collected by a field experiment. Factor Analysis was then employed to sort out the motives behind their occupational choices, and regression analysis was used to associate job satisfaction with work motivation. Policy implications were suggested based on the findings. There is already some evidence on the successful outcomes of the proposed strategy. |
| Keywords: | low-employability; ultra-Orthodox/religious (Haredi); Israel; occupation; motives; job satisfaction; old-age dependency-ratio |
| JEL: | D13 D91 I38 J08 J24 Z12 |
| Date: | 2020–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:58&r=all |
| By: | الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; عون, أد/ عون خيرالله; حافظ, إيمان يوسف |
| Abstract: | Education is an investment in human resources. The higher level of education leads to incease of the productivity, the higher the productivity of the individual, and leads to the optimum utilization of the available resources to society as a whole. The research aims to study role of the agricultural education on the growth of the agricultural sector in Egypt. The unit root test of the variables studied during the period 1995 to 2015 shows that the time series of the variables under study were not static but still at the first differences. The Johansen test showed that there is a cointegration between these variables, ie, that all the time series of the variables studied are stationary, and that there are long-term relationships between the variables. Using the Granger causality test with a two-years lag, it was found that there is a one-way causal relationship that extends from economic growth in the agricultural sector (expressed in the real GDP of the agricultural sector) to government expenditure on agricultural education. Agricultural education, and a one-way causal relationship that extends from the real GDP of the agricultural sector in the previous year to government expenditure on agricultural education in the current year, and a one-way causal relationship To agricultural GDP. There is also a one-way causal relationship that extends from expenditure on agricultural education to the number of faculty members in agricultural colleges and institutes. There is no doubt that these results are useful for policymakers in the economics of education. يعتبر التعليم استثماراً في الموارد البشرية، فكلما زاد مستوى التعليم زادت إنتاجية الموارد البشرية المتاحة، كما ترتفع إنتاجية الفرد، والاهتمام بالتعليم يؤدي إلى تحقيق الاستغلال الأمثل للموارد المتاحة للمجتمع ككل بصفة عامة. ومن ثم فإنه من المنطقي أن تحقيق أهداف التنمية الزراعية يرتبط بدرجة وثيقة بالتعليم الزراعي ومدى كفايته وكفاءته. بناءً على ذلك، يستهدف البحث معرفة مدى تأتير التعليم الزراعي على نمو القطاع الزراعي في مصر، وقد تم استخدام اختبار جذر الوحدة للمتغيرات موضع الدراسة خلال الفترة 1995- 2015، وتبين أن السلاسل الزمنية لمتغيرات الدراسة غير ساكنة في مستواها ولكنها ساكنة عند الفروق الأولى لها. وباستخدم اختبار جوهانسن للتكامل المشترك تبين وجود تكامل مشترك بين هذه المتغيرات، أي أن جميع السلاسل الزمنية للمتغيرات موضع الدراسة تعتبر مستقرة، كما تدل على إمكانية وجود علاقات على المدى الطويل بين هذه المتغيرات مما يعني عدم إمكانية ابتعاد هذه المتغيرات عن بعضها البعض في الأجل الطويل. وباستخدام اختبار جرانجر للسببية باستخدام فترة تأخير طولها سنتين تبين أنه توجد علاقة سببية أحادية الاتجاه تمتد من النمو الاقتصادي بالقطاع الزراعي (يعبر عنه بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي للقطاع الزراعي) إلى الإنفاق الحكومي على التعليم الزراعي، وبناءً على هذا فإن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الزراعي يحدد الإنفاق على التعليم الزراعي، وتوجد علاقة سببية في اتجاه واحد تمتد من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي للقطاع الزراعي في العام السابق إلى الإنفاق الحكومي على التعليم الزراعي في العام الحالي، كما لوحظ وجود علاقة سببية في اتجاه واحد تمتد من العمالة الزراعية إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الزراعي، وأيضاً توجد علاقة سببية في اتجاه واحد تمتد من الإنفاق على التعليم الزراعي إلى عدد أعضاء هيئة التدريس بكليات ومعاهد الزراعة. ومما لا شك فيه إن هذه النتائج مفيده لصانعي القرار في مجال اقتصاديات التعليم. |
| Keywords: | التعليم الزراعي، النمو بالقطاع الزراعي، التكامل المشترك، اختبار جرانجر للسببية. |
| JEL: | I25 O1 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98511&r=all |