nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒02‒17
twenty papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Does exposure to violence affect reciprocity? Experimental evidence from the West Bank By Elisa Cavatorta; Daniel John Zizzo; Yousef Daoud
  2. FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN TURKEY: A SYNTHETIC COHORT (PANEL) ANALYSIS, 1988-2013 By Insan Tunali; Murat Güray Kirdar; Meltem Dayioglu
  3. Gender Bias in SME Lending : Experimental Evidence from Turkey By Alibhai,Salman; Donald,Aletheia Amalia; Goldstein,Markus P.; Oguz,Alper Ahmet; Pankov,Alexander; Strobbe,Francesco
  4. Stages of Development of Payment Systems : Leapfrogging across Countries and MENA's Place in the World By Gevaudan,Clement; Lederman,Daniel
  5. Accounting for Protest Attitudes in Willingness to Pay for Universal Health Coverage By Mohammad Abu-Zaineh; Olivier Chanel; Khaled Makhloufi
  6. The External Wealth of Arab Nations : Structure, Trends, and Policy Implications By Mohieldin,Mahmoud; Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick; Zaki,Chahir
  7. Children of Crisis: The Effects of Economic Shocks on Newborns By Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Cilasun, Seyit Mumin; Turan, Belgi
  9. Why Do Turkish Firms Go Abroad to Invest? By Yilmaz Kilicaslan; Yesim Ucdogruk Gurel; Gokhan Onder; Zeynep Karal Onder
  10. K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia By Jorge Blazquez; Marzio Galeotti; Baltasar Manzano; Axel Pierru; Shreekar Pradhan
  11. Territorial tourism performance: Case of destination Fez By A Hmioui; L Alla; B Bentalha
  12. Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial By Mahmut Gunay
  13. The Impact of Oil and Gold Prices Shock on Tehran Stock Exchange: A Copula Approach By Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi; Marjan Qazvini; Reza Ofoghi
  14. The Dynamics of High-Growth Firms : Evidence from Tunisia By Marcio,Cruz; Baghdadi,Leila; Arouri,Hassen
  15. Children of War: In-Utero Stress and Child Health in Iraq By Sulin Sardoschau
  16. Enhancing Employability by Responding to Work Motives: Lessons from a Field Experiment among Israeli Ultra-Religious Women By Goldfarb, Yael; Neuman, Shoshana
  17. Migration in Libya : A Spatial Network Analysis By Di Maio,Michele; Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio; Molini,Vasco
  18. أثر التضخم على النمو الاقتصادي بالقطاع الزراعي المصري By الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; عبدالراضي, صابرين صبره; عون, أد/ عون خيرالله; عبدالرازق, د ياسمين صلاح
  19. Finansal Kapsayicilik : Turkiye ve Dunya Karsilastirmasi By Unal Seven; Ahmet Duhan Yassa; Fatih Yilmaz
  20. Gelismekte Olan Ulkelerde Tahvil Piyasasina Yonelik Yabanci Yatirimci Pozisyon Endeksi: Arz-Talep Ayristirmasi By Suleyman Tolga Tiryaki; Erdal Yilmaz

  1. By: Elisa Cavatorta (Department of Political Economy, King's College London, United Kingdom); Daniel John Zizzo (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Yousef Daoud (Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and Birzeit University)
    Abstract: This paper studies how reciprocity is affected by exposure to political violence in early age. We combine a research design that isolates the exogenous exposure to violence with a lab-in-the-field experiment to study how reciprocity in the forms of conditional cooperation and vindictive behavior in adolescents varies as a result of exposure to violence. We focus on young Palestinians in the West Bank region of the Palestinian territories. We find that exposure to violence affects reciprocity of Palestinian adolescents: those more exposed to violence engage in more reciprocal behavior in both the domain of cooperation and that of aggression. Part of the effect is explained by changes in the beliefs about their peers' behavior.
    Keywords: reciprocity; cooperation; conflict; violence; Palestine.
    JEL: C72 C91 D91 I25
    Date: 2020–01–10
  2. By: Insan Tunali (Bogaziçi University); Murat Güray Kirdar (Bogazici University); Meltem Dayioglu (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, and Economic Research Forum)
    Abstract: We study the aggregate labor force participation behavior of women over a 25-year period in Turkey using a synthetic panel approach. In our decomposition of age, year, and cohort effects, we use three APC models that have received close scrutiny of the demography community. We rely on predictions from just-identified models that render different methods comparable. The exercise is carried out by rural/urban status and by education to tease out some key differences in behavior, and to test hypotheses about the course of participation. Our comparative methodology yields remarkably consistent profiles for most subsamples, but not all. Notably all methods reveal an M-shaped age profile attributable to child-bearing related interruptions in rural areas and for low-educated women in urban areas. We also find that younger cohorts among the least-educated women are more likely to participate, contrary to the belief that culture stands in the way. This implies that the recent rise in the aggregate participation rates is not only due to a composition effect arising from increasing education levels. We also show that Turkey has reached the turning point of the U-shaped pattern in female participation. In addition, we dwell on methodological issues and offer explanations for the fragility of the methods. We establish that evolution of the linear trend present in the cross-section age profiles is responsible for the apparent differences in the findings.
    Date: 2019–12–20
  3. By: Alibhai,Salman; Donald,Aletheia Amalia; Goldstein,Markus P.; Oguz,Alper Ahmet; Pankov,Alexander; Strobbe,Francesco
    Abstract: Gender disparities in small and medium-size enterprise lending exist around the world and impede the growth of millions of women-led firms. This paper examines a potential driver of these disparities: gender-biased loan officers. Officer bias is measured through a novel loan application experiment conducted with 77 loan officers in Turkish banks. The analysis finds that 35 percent of the loan officers are biased against female applicants, with women receiving loan amounts $14,000 lower on average compared with men. Experience in the banking sector can attenuate this bias, with each year of experience reducing gender biased loan allocations by 6 percent. The results suggest that loan officers may use gender bias as a heuristic device given limited information and risk aversion. Helping newly recruited and lesser experienced loan officers to better discern loan application quality may thus improve financing of business loans to women and reduce gender gaps in entrepreneurship.
    Date: 2019–12–30
  4. By: Gevaudan,Clement; Lederman,Daniel
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the level of economic development and the incidence of three forms of payments across countries, namely the incidence of bank accounts, digital payments, and mobile money accounts among the adult populations across countries. It presents simple statistical tests of leapfrogging, the phenomenon by which poor countries surpass rich countries in the provision of payments mechanisms. It contributes to a broader and long-standing literature on stages of development, as well as to the literature on financial development and access to finance. The findings suggest that there is evidence of"absolute"and"relative"leapfrogging, with both terms defined in the paper. In addition, the Middle East and North Africa region, on average, suffers from a notable underperformance gap across all observed stages of payment-systems development. This finding suggests that the region suffers from structural impediments to the development of its financial and banking systems that go well beyond the adoption of digital-technology tools.
    Keywords: ICT Economics,Economic Growth,Industrial Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Sector Policy,Telecommunications Infrastructure,Financial Structures
    Date: 2020–01–07
  5. By: Mohammad Abu-Zaineh (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Olivier Chanel (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Khaled Makhloufi (Faculty of Medicine, Aix-Marseille Univ, INSERM, IRD, UMR 912 (SESSTIM))
    Abstract: In their attempts to implement universal health coverage (UHC), different developing countries encounter different types of obstacles. In Tunisia, major challenges include a widespread informal sector and protestors’ general discontent with rising economic insecurity and inequality, the rollback of the state and public welfare. We apply a contingent valuation survey to a non-healthcare-covered Tunisian sample vis-à-vis joining and paying for a health insurance scheme. We pay attention to the nature of the willingness- to-pay (WTP) values obtained, distinguishing genuine null from protest values. The latter may reflect not only protesters’ beliefs regarding the survey, but also their lack of trust in government’s commitment to ensuring the provision of quality healthcare. We use alternative econometric modeling strategies to account and correct for selection issues arising from protest answers. Our results support the presence of self- selection and, by predicting protesters’ WTP, allow the “true” sample mean WTP to be computed. This appears to be about 14% higher than the elicited mean WTP. The WTP of the poorest non-covered respondents represents about one and a half times the current contributions of the poorest formal sector enrollees, suggesting that voluntary affiliation to the formal health insurance scheme could be a step towards achieving UHC. Overall, we highlight the importance of taking into account protest positions for the evaluation of progress towards UHC.
  6. By: Mohieldin,Mahmoud; Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick; Zaki,Chahir
    Abstract: The paper makes two main contributions. First, it analyzes net foreign assets and liabilities in selected Arab countries over the past two decades, emphasizing the relative significance of direct versus portfolio investment. It distinguishes between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. Second, the paper examines the effects of policy variables that affect the accumulation of net foreign assets and its components, analyzing how the existence of a sovereign wealth fund, the country's exchange rate regime, and the development of its financial system affect its net foreign assets. The main findings show that the presence of a sovereign wealth fund is positively and statistically significantly associated with foreign direct investment in Arab countries. Financial development (defined as credit to the private sector as a percentage of gross domestic product) is also statistically significant across various regressions. The more financially developed a country is, the more it should invest in riskier assets, such as portfolio assets. But Arab investors are more risk averse than investors elsewhere. Oil-exporting countries tend to invest more in debt assets than in portfolio assets. For oil-importing countries, financial development is the most important determinant of foreign direct investment.
    Date: 2020–01–06
  7. By: Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Cilasun, Seyit Mumin; Turan, Belgi (University of Houston)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the deep economic crisis experienced by the Turkish economy in 2001 and 2008 as quasi-experiments to causally identify the association between economically challenging conditions in-utero and child's birth weight. First, we utilize the temporal and spatial variations of the economic crisis. Second, we estimate mother fixed effects models by exploring the variation in the birth weight of siblings by their in-utero exposure to economic downturn. Using the Turkish Demographic Health Surveys (DHS), we find that a higher regional GDP contributes significantly to better birth outcomes among crisis-time children; adverse health effects are mainly observed in children born to mothers with low socio-economic status, suggesting that the main driver of the estimated effects of economic crises in Turkey is credit constraints. Our mother fixed effects models reveal that selective fertility, abortion, and unobserved heterogeneity across mothers are important omitted variables in the interpretation of regional regressions. The estimated effects of economic downturns cease to be statistically and economically significant once we control more accurately and directly for a family's firsthand experience with economic recessions. Thus, our results demonstrate that regional-level regressions estimating potential infant health costs of economic recessions potentially overestimate the true effects, and more direct measures of unobserved heterogeneity should also be considered in these analyses.
    Keywords: infant health, childhood environment, economic crisis
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Imène Berguiga (University of Sousse); Philippe Adair (University Paris Est Créteil); Nadia Zrelli (University of Sousse); Ali Abdallah (University of Sousse)
    Abstract: Islamic banks face specific risks related to Sharia-compliant contracts. We provide an exhaustive literature review addressing the methodological issues of the measurement of performance and document the main stylised facts regarding the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) in the MENA region. We investigate 53IBs in 11 MENA countries over 2007-2014, first using cross-sectional analysis as of year 2013. A panel data model with instrumental variables estimates the impact of risks upon the returns on assets and equity of Islamic banks. Four salient results emerge: Sharia compliance exerts an ambiguous effect upon performance; Islamic specificity is a minor attribute according to the insignificant share of profit and loss sharing (PLS) contracts in total assets; there is no relationship between Sharia compliance and specific risk; loan loss provisions do not restrict to specific risks (PLS), hedging all risks.
    Date: 2019–12–20
  9. By: Yilmaz Kilicaslan (Anadolu University, Department of Economics); Yesim Ucdogruk Gurel (Dokuz Eylul University, Department of Economics); Gokhan Onder (Anadolu University, Department of Business Administration); Zeynep Karal Onder (Anadolu University, Department of Public Finance)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine the determinants and localization of outward FDI (oFDI) of Turkish firms that differs from developed country MNEs with respect to firm size, technology, skills and access to information about global markets. This research is the first attempt aimed to explore especially the determinants of country/region selection of Turkish outward FDI at the firm level by using discrete choice models. The findings in this paper are based on the primary data collected by in-depth-interviews with 299 outward-investing Turkish firms operating in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, and information and communication sectors. Our descriptive findings show that 60% of the investments are green-field. We found that 68% of the investments were made in developing countries while the developed countries attracted only 32% of Turkish investments. Our findings show that the main motivation of Turkish firms investing in other counties is willingness to reach to the larger markets (77%). Our econometric findings show that the size of the firm and the parent firm are significant factors in selecting developed countries as the host country for the investment. As the size of the firm increases, the possibility of Turkish investors to choose developed countries is diminishing, while as the size of the parent firm bets bigger, the possibility of locating the investment in developed countries is rising. The high share of foreign ownership in parent firms has a positive impact on choosing developing countries to locate the investment. It seems that foreign firms benefit from the experiences of Turkish firms operating in developing markets. Finally, while willingness to avoid from tariffs has no significant impact on the probability of investing in developed countries (including EU countries), it increases the probability of investment in the member countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
    Keywords: Outward Foreign Direct Investment, outward FDI, Probit, Logit, Turkey
    JEL: F12 G1 E2
    Date: 2019–11
  10. By: Jorge Blazquez; Marzio Galeotti; Baltasar Manzano; Axel Pierru; Shreekar Pradhan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The K-DSGE model is to be used for simulations and experiments to assess the impact of economic reforms within the Saudi Vision 2030 framework. The model will also complement the suite of models currently used at KAPSARC for macroeconomic analysis, to assess the impact of the Kingdom’s public policies.
    Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Economic Modeling, Saudi Vision 2030
    Date: 2019–06–01
  11. By: A Hmioui (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); L Alla (ENSAF - Ecole Nationale des Sciences Appliquées [Fès] - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); B Bentalha (ENCGF - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion De Fès - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah)
    Abstract: The contemporary context of the tourism market, marked by changes in tourist demand, competition and new managerial practices, is pushing each territory to evaluate and modernise its tourism strategies in order to improve its attractiveness. Such a concern, in terms of tourism destination performance, continually pushes the various territorial tourism stakeholders to reinvent their business strategies, through the innovation of tourism services and related services. Admittedly, the performance of any tourist destination is more dependent on compliance with customer expectations and requirements and competitiveness requirements. This can be achieved by mobilizing and optimizing multiple local tourist potentialities, thus pushing towards more authenticity and more intrinsic specificity of tourist products. This spatial differentiation via territorial image and identity, and the improvement of their visibility and readability on the national and international market is very sensitive to the contribution and commitment of the various stakeholders, and in particular customers. In Morocco, and in accordance with the 2020 tourism development vision and the very foundations of advanced regionalisation, the performance of any tourist destination is more dependent on the ability of territorial stakeholders to develop the territorial anchoring of the tourism product offered, as the main lever for sustainable and sustainable development of tourism attractiveness. Indeed, the Fez-Meknès region, and particularly the city of Fez, seeks to base its attractiveness mainly on heritage as the foundation of the territorial image and identity. What is the assessment of the performance of the tourist offer of the destination Fez? This is the issue to which our communication seeks to discuss. To address this issue, we mobilize the literature review to identify the concepts of attractiveness and performance of a tourist destination, and its determinants, through the development of a composite index (P. T. I.), before empirically analyzing the assessment of the tourism performance of Fez destination, through the statistical analysis of the P. T. I. Fez, and identify the necessary lessons for a better promotion of the attractiveness of the city.
    Abstract: Le contexte contemporain du marché touristique, marqué par les mutations de la demande touristique, la concurrence et les nouvelles pratiques managériales, pousse chaque territoire à évaluer et à moderniser ses stratégies touristiques, afin d'améliorer son attractivité. Une telle préoccupation, en termes de performance de destination touristique, pousse continuellement les différents acteurs touristiques territoriaux à réinventer leurs stratégies commerciales, à travers l'innovation des prestations touristiques et des services connexes. Certes, la performance de toute destination touristique est davantage conditionnée par la conformité aux attentes et aux exigences de la clientèle et les exigences de compétitivité. Cette finalité peut être obtenue par la mobilisation et l'optimisation de multiples potentialités touristiques locales, poussant ainsi vers plus d'authenticité et plus de spécificité intrinsèque des produits touristiques. Ce démarquage spatial via l'image et l'identité territoriales, et l'amélioration de leur visibilité et lisibilité sur le marché national et international est très sensible à la contribution et l'engagement des différentes parties prenantes, et notamment les clients. Au Maroc, et conformément à la vision de développement touristique 2020 et les fondements même de la régionalisation avancée, la performance de toute destination touristique est davantage tributaire de la capacité des acteurs territoriaux à développer l'ancrage territorial du produit touristique offert, comme principal levier de perfectionnement durable et soutenable de l'attractivité touristique. En effet, la région Fès-Meknès, et particulièrement la ville de Fès, cherche à baser son attractivité principalement sur le patrimoine comme socle de l'image et l'identité territoriales. Quelle appréciation fait-on de la performance de l'offre touristique de la destination Fès ? Telle est la problématique à laquelle notre communication cherche à discuter. Pour traiter cette problématique, nous mobilisons la revue de littérature pour cerner les notions d'attractivité et de performance d'une destination touristique, et ses déterminants, via l'élaboration d'un indice composite (I.P.T.), avant d'analyser empiriquement l'appréciation de la performance touristique de destination Fès, via l'analyse statistique de l'I.P.T. de Fès, et dégager les enseignements nécessaires pour une meilleure promotion de l'attractivité de la ville.
    Keywords: tourist destination,Territorial attractiveness,satisfaction,loyalty,tourist performance,fidélité,performance touristique,Attractivité territoriale,destination touristique
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Mahmut Gunay
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze short-term forecasts of Turkish GDP growth using Mixed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) approach. We consider six alternatives for functional form of the lag polynomial in the MIDAS equation, five to twelve lags of the explanatory high frequency variables and produce short-term forecasts for nine forecast horizons starting with the release of data for six months before the start of the target quarter to the release of the data for the last month of the quarter. Our results indicate that functional form of the lag polynomials play non-negligible role on the short-term forecast performance but a specific functional form does not perform globally well for all forecast horizons, for all lag lengths or for all indicators. Import quantity indices perform relatively better until first month’s data for the target quarter become available. As data accumulate for the monthly indicators for the target quarter, real domestic turnover and industrial production indicators stand out in terms of short-term forecasting performance. When all of the three months’ realizations for the monthly indicators become available for the quarter that we want to forecast, unrestricted MIDAS type equations with around five lags with real domestic turnover and industrial production indicators track the GDP growth relatively successfully.
    Keywords: GDP, Forecasting, MIDAS, Polynomial form
    JEL: C53 E37
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi; Marjan Qazvini; Reza Ofoghi
    Abstract: There are several researches that deal with the behavior of SEs and their relationships with different economical factors. These range from papers dealing with this subject through econometrical procedures to statistical methods known as copula. This article considers the impact of oil and gold price on Tehran Stock Exchange market (TSE). Oil and gold are two factors that are essential for the economy of Iran and their price are determined in the global market. The model used in this study is ARIMA-Copula. We used data from January 1998 to January 2011 as training data to find the appropriate model. The cross validation of model is measured by data from January 2011 to June 2011. We conclude that: (i) there is no significant direct relationship between gold price and the TSE index, but the TSE is indirectly influenced by gold price through other factors such as oil; and (ii) the TSE is not independent of the volatility in oil price and Clayton copula can describe such dependence structure between TSE and the oil price. Based on the property of Clayton copula, which has lower tail dependency, as the oil price drops, stock index falls. This means that decrease in oil price has an adverse effect on Iranian economy.
    Date: 2020–01
  14. By: Marcio,Cruz; Baghdadi,Leila; Arouri,Hassen
    Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics and characteristics of high-growth firms in Tunisia. Further knowledge about the dynamics of these firms can inform the design of business support policies, especially toward small and medium-size firms. The analysis suggests that between 1999 and 2015, about 9 to 10.5 percent of the firms in Tunisia achieved high-growth status per year, on average, depending on the definition used, and these shares have been remarkably stable over time. Although a small share of firms achieves high growth annually, almost one in every three firms that survive for more than a decade has achieved high-growth status at least once. High-growth status is more prevalent among small and young firms, as well as firms that export, import, or receive foreign direct investments.
    Date: 2020–02–10
  15. By: Sulin Sardoschau (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper combines detailed household-level data on child health with geo-coded incidences of vi- olence in Iraq to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to violence on biometric, behavioral and cognitive outcomes of children. Rich data on severity (duration and casualties), type (bombings, ex- plosions, gun_re etc.), and perpetrators of violence (coalition, insurgent, or sectarian) on the district level allow me to discriminate between two possible mechanisms: damages to the infrastructure versus violence-induced pre-natal stress for mothers. Comparing siblings within the same household, I find that one single violent incidence during pregnancy significantly increases the risk of stuntedness, malnutrition and weakens major cognitive and behavioral skills. While the type of violence does not seem to play a major role, the perpetrator of violence seems to matter. Violent acts that explicitly target the civilian population, even if they have little e_ect on the general infrastructure, appear to be the driver behind the effect.
    Keywords: stress,violence,health,Iraq
    Date: 2019–11
  16. By: Goldfarb, Yael (University of Haifa); Neuman, Shoshana (Bar-Ilan University)
    Abstract: Low employability among specific populations (e.g., religious/traditional women, the elderly, disabled workers, immigrants) has unfavorable consequences on the: unemployed individual, society, and the state economy. The latter include: poverty, a heavy toll on welfare budgets, diminished growth, and an increase in the "dependency ratio". We suggest a rather novel policy (borrowed from the field of Career Psychology) that could lead to successful integration into the labor market of low-employability populations: the design of tailor-made training programs that respond to work motives; coupled with a working environment that caters to special needs/restrictions; and complemented with counseling and monitoring. The suggested strategy was illustrated and investigated using a case study of Israeli ultra-religious women, who exhibit lower employment rates than other Israeli women. The motives behind their occupational choices were explored based on data collected by a field experiment. Factor Analysis was then employed to sort out the motives behind their occupational choices, and regression analysis was used to associate job satisfaction with work motivation. Policy implications were suggested based on the findings. There is already some evidence on the successful outcomes of the proposed strategy.
    Keywords: low-employability, ultra-Orthodox/religious (Haredi), Israel, occupation, motives, job satisfaction, old-age dependency-ratio
    JEL: D13 D91 I38 J08 J24 Z12
    Date: 2020–01
  17. By: Di Maio,Michele; Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio; Molini,Vasco
    Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic analysis of migration to, within, and from Libya. The data used in the analysis are from the Displacement Tracking Matrix data set of the International Organization for Migration. The analysis uses this unique source of data, combining several techniques to analyze various dimensions of migration in Libya. First, the paper provides a detailed description of the demographic characteristics and national composition of the migrant populations in Libya. Next, it discusses the determinants of migration flow within Libya. The findings show that migration in Libya can be characterized as forced migration, because conflict intensity is the main determinant of the decision to relocate across provinces. Finally, the paper describes the direction, composition, and evolution of international migration flows passing through Libya and identifies the mechanisms of location selection by migrants within Libya by identifying hotspots and cluster provinces.
    Keywords: Social Cohesion,Social Conflict and Violence,Armed Conflict,International Migration,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Migration and Development,Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–01–14
  18. By: الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; عبدالراضي, صابرين صبره; عون, أد/ عون خيرالله; عبدالرازق, د ياسمين صلاح
    Abstract: The research aimed to study the causes and sources of inflation in the Egyptian economy and the agricultural sector, and to analyze the indicators and measures of that phenomenon at the two levels during the period 1995-2016. A number of indices were used, namely: the urban consumer price index, the rural consumer price index, the general consumer price index, the producer price index, and the implicit index. By tracking the evolution of changes in the price level during the study period, it was found that those indexes have taken an upward trend along the time series under study, and the index numbers have doubled from three to four times, which confirms the suffering of the Egyptian economy from high inflation rates. The results of using the criterion of the cash stability factor that showed positive along the length of the chain also showed the size of the gap between the value of real GDP and the size of the money supply in the sense of M1 and M2. While the increase in the real GDP reached 159.60%, the increase in the size of the money supply About 1711% and 1373%, respectively. The results also showed that the surplus of demand began to appear from 2012 and continued to increase until it reached its maximum in 2016. As for the net surplus of demand, it began to appear from 2014 to 2016, and its maximum reached in 2016 with an increase estimated at 93.20%. As for the agricultural sector as one of the pivotal sectors in the national economy, a number of agricultural indices were analyzed that reflected the extent of the phenomenon of inflation in the agricultural sector, and the factors causing inflation in the agricultural sector can be classified into factors outside the agricultural sector that affect the presence of inflation within the sector, including the budget deficit The general state of the country, the money supply surplus, the deficit in the trade balance, which are the same factors that caused inflation in the Egyptian economy, in addition to internal factors specific to the agricultural sector, such as poor distribution and use of agricultural resources, a low percentage of For the self-sufficiency of some crops, especially food ones, and the high cost of agricultural production requirements, in addition to a group of other factors addressed in the research. استهدف البحث دراسة أسباب ومصادر التضخم في الاقتصاد المصري وفي القطاع الزراعي، و تحليل مؤشرات ومقاييس تلك الظاهرة على المستوىين خلال الفترة 1995-2016. وقد تم الاستعانة بعدد من الأرقام القياسية وهي: الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلكين بالحضر، الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلكين بالريف، الرقم القياسي العام لأسعار المستهلكين، الرقم القياسي لأسعار المنتجين، الرقم القياسي الضمني. وبتتبع تطور التغيرات على مستوى الأسعار خلال فترة الدراسة تبين أن تلك الأرقام القياسية قد سلكت اتجاهاً تصاعدياً على طول السلسلة الزمنية محل الدراسة وقد تضاعفت الأرقام القياسية خلالها من ثلاث لأربع مرات وهو ما يؤكد معاناة الاقتصاد المصري من معدلات تضخم عالية. كما أظهرت نتائج استخدام معيار معامل الاستقرار النقدي الذي ظهر موجباً على مدى طول السلسلة حجم الفجوة بين قيمة الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي وحجم المعروض النقدي بمفهوميه M1 ، M2 ففي حين بلغت نسبة الزيادة في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي 159.60%، بلغت نسبة الزيادة في حجم المعروض النقدي نحو 1711%، 1373% على الترتيب. كما أظهرت النتائج أن فائض الطلب قد بدأ بالظهور من عام 2012 واستمر بالزيادة حتى بلغ أقصاه عام 2016 أما عن صافي فائض الطلب فقد بدأ بالظهور من عام 2014 حتى عام 2016، وبلغ حده الأقصى عام 2016 بنسبة زيادة قدرت بنحو 93.20%. أما بالنسبة للقطاع الزراعي كأحد القطاعات المحورية في الاقتصاد القومي فقد تم تحليل عدد من الأرقام القياسية الزراعية التي عكست المدي الذي وصلت اليه ظاهرة التضخم بالقطاع الزراعي ويمكن تصنيف العوامل المسببة للتضخم في القطاع الزراعي إلى عوامل خارج القطاع الزراعي تؤثر على وجود التضخم داخل القطاع منها عجز الموازنة العامة للدولة، فائض المعروض النقدي، العجز في الميزان التجاري وهي ذات العوامل التي كانت سبباً في وجود التضخم على مستوى المقتصد المصري، إضافة إلى عوامل داخلية يختص بها القطاع الزراعي مثل سوء توزيع واستخدام الموارد الزراعية، انخفاض نسبة الاكتفاء الذاتي من بعض المحاصيل وخاصةً الغذائية منها وارتفاع تكلفة مستلزمات الإنتاج الزراعية إضافة إلى مجموعة من العوامل الأخرى تناولها البحث.
    Keywords: التضخم، التنمية الاقتصادية، النمو الاقتصادي، الأرقام القياسية. Inflation, Economic Development, Economic Growth, index Numbers.
    JEL: E5 E52 Q11
    Date: 2019–12
  19. By: Unal Seven; Ahmet Duhan Yassa; Fatih Yilmaz
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, finansal kapsayiciligin dunya ve Turkiye'deki son on yillik gelisimi karsilastirmali olarak sunulduktan sonra mikro veriler ile Turkiye'deki temel demografik gostergelerle iliskisi analiz edilmektedir. Analiz bulgularina gore, dunya genelinde son on yilda finansal kapsayicilikta onemli yol alinmakla beraber, gelismis ulkeler ile gelismekte olan ulkeler arasindaki farkin korundugu gercegi karsimiza cikmaktadir. Turkiye'nin finansal kapsayicilik performansinin ayni gelir grubu ulke ortalamasina gore daha iyi durumda oldugu gorulmektedir. Buna karsin, veriler Turkiye'de kadinlarin finansal sisteme katiliminin benzer ulke ortalamasinin oldukca altinda kaldigini gostermektedir. Yapilan bolgesel karsilastirilmalarda, kadinlarin isgucune katiliminin dusuk oldugu bolgelerde ayni zamanda finansal sisteme katilimin da dusuk oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir. Bununla beraber, egitim seviyesi ve gelir ile finansal kapsayicilik arasinda pozitif iliski bulunmaktadir. [EN] In this study, we firstly analyze the development of financial inclusion across the globe and in Turkey over the last decade and then, provide a more focused study on the relation between financial inclusion and regional demographics in Turkey. According to the findings, despite the significant progress in financial inclusion over the last decade, the inclusion gap between developed and developing countries has been preserved. More specifically, Turkey's performance in financial inclusion appears to be in better shape as compared to the countries in the same income group (upper-middle income). In contrast, the data also shows that women participation in financial system remained well below in Turkey relative to the same income group countries. According to the regional comparisons, we conclude that regions with low women labor force participation also indicates poor financial inclusion. Additionally, financial inclusiveness is positively correlated with regional education and income levels.
    Date: 2020
  20. By: Suleyman Tolga Tiryaki; Erdal Yilmaz
    Abstract: [TR] Tahvil piyasasinda yabanci yatirimcilarin yerel para birimi cinsinden pozisyonlarinin incelenmesi, kuresel dalgalanmalarda ulkenin ne olcude riske maruz kalabilecegi ya da kuresel gelismelerin ortaya cikardigi firsatlardan ne derece yararlanabileceginin degerlendirilmesi konusunda yol gosterici olmaktadir. Bu calismada, Arslanalp ve Tsuda (2014) calismasinda turetilen yabanci yatirimci pozisyon endeksi, ulkelerin tahvil piyasasindaki arz ve talep kosullarini dikkate alarak guncel verilerle yeniden tanimlanmaktadir. Endekste yer alan ulkelerin birbirine karsi goreli yabanci yatirimci pozisyonu, yabanci yatirimcilarin portfoyunde hangi ulkelerin talep fazlasina sahip oldugu (gosterge ustu, overweight) veya talep acigina sahip oldugu (gosterge-alti, underweight), tahvil arzi da goz onunde bulundurularak degerlendirilmektedir. Ayrica, secili ulkelerden olusan bir grup dahilinde, tahvil piyasalarinda Turkiye'nin yabanci yatirimcilarin portfoyundeki goreli pozisyonunun gelisimi arz ve talep bilesenleriyle birlikte incelenmektedir. [EN] Analysis of foreign investors' positions in local currency bond markets guides the assessments on an economy's risk exposure in the face of global fluctuations or the scope for reaping the benefits from favourable global developments. In this study, the foreign investor position index derived by Arslanalp and Tsuda (2014) is re-defined by taking into account supply and demand conditions in countries' bond markets and using updated data. The relative position of foreign investors, that is, which countries are in excess demand (overweight) and which are in shortage of demand (underweight) in the portfolio of foreign investors, is examined by also considering the supply of bonds. In addition, the evolution of Turkey's position in foreign investors' portfolio in the bond markets of a selected group of countries, is also analysed together with its supply and demand components.
    Date: 2020

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