nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒02‒10
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  3. Demographics in MENA countries: a major driver for economic growth By Yeganeh Forouheshfar; Najat El Mekkaoui; Hippolyte d'Albis
  4. ON IDEAS AND ECONOMIC POLICY: A SURVEY OF MENA ECONOMISTS By Rana Hendy; Mahmoud Mohieldin; Joelle El Sawalhi; Rebecca Spriggs
  5. Structural and cyclical determinants of access to finance: Evidence from Egypt By Betz, Frank; Ravasan, Farshad R.; Weiss, Christoph T.
  6. Refugees and social capital: Evidence from Northern Lebanon By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  9. Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Morocco By Harkat, Tahar
  10. Quality and relevance of the evidence on the situation of refugees in Jordan in an emerging context of humanitarian evidence-based policy-making By Gwendoline Promsopha; Ingrid Tucci
  11. Taux de change d’équilibre et compétitivité au Maroc : Estimation par le Modèle ARDL de cointégration By Rabhi, Ayoub
  12. La marque ville comme déterminant de l’attractivité des territoires au Maroc : Proposition d’un modèle conceptuel By Ahsina, Khalifa; Ettahir, Noura
  13. L’impact des attributs et indicateurs de qualité sur le comportement d’achat d’un produit alimentaire. Une approche exploratoire, par la valeur perçue et l’authenticité perçue. Cas de l’huile d’olive d’Algérie By Bernoussi, Nedjma; Sirieix, Lucie
  14. نموذج مقترح لقياس محددات الأداء المزرعي للممارسات الزراعية الجيدة لمزارعي محصول العنب بمنطقة النوبارية By الرسول, أ.د.أحمد أبواليزيد; عون, أ.د.عون خيرالله; شهاب, د.سامح محمد حسن; حسين, محمد عبدالكريم محمد

  1. By: Basel Awartani (Westminster Business School, 35 Marylebone, London); Aktham Maghyereh (College of Business and Economics, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, UAE); Julie Ayton (Westminster Business School, 35 Marylebone, London)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the nature of asymmetry in the influence of oil price changes on output in five MENA countries. These are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Tunisia. To get more observation for our analysis, we proxy GDP with industrial output and hence our inference is based on a relatively larger sample compared to previous studies. The results that we obtain are interesting and intuitive. First, we find that growth in MENA countries is linked to oil in the sense that it benefits from higher oil prices and it gets hurt by a fall in the oil market. Moreover, there are pronounced short- and long-term asymmetries in the influence of oil on output. In particular, the output is faster to respond to increases in the oil price than it responds to decreases. The long-term influence to a rise in oil is also higher, though it is realized over a longer period. These results are important and can be used to guide policies that are concerned with stabilizing the economies of the MENA region against oil price fluctuations.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  2. By: Imène Berguiga (ERUDITE research team, IHEC, University of Sousse, Tunisia); Philippe Adair (ERUDITE research team, University Paris Est Créteil, France)
    Abstract: A pooled sample of 3,075 Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) is designed as for Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia from the World Bank Enterprises Survey (WBES) as of 2013. The adjusted sample complies with international standards, although it does not remove all the biases encapsulated within the WBES. A subsample of 709 MSMEs applied for a loan on the demand side, including those that were granted a loan on the supply side and those that were rejected by financial institutions. The absence of Financial inclusion and lack of Collateral are the main reasons for this imbalance. A binary logit model including interaction variables addresses both the demand and the supply side. Salient findings on the demand side are that the characteristics of MSMEs -Size, Age, Registration and Financial inclusion influence loan demand, whereas the characteristics of managers and the Interest rate have no impact. Conversely, the characteristics of MSMEs play no role upon loan supply, whereas Financial inclusion and Collateral exert a major impact on the supply side. There is a mismatch as for loan supply from microfinance according to the microfinance industry vs. the WBES data source.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  3. By: Yeganeh Forouheshfar (Université Paris-Dauphine, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PSL - PSL Research University, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris-Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Najat El Mekkaoui (Université Paris-Dauphine, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PSL - PSL Research University, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris-Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: MENA region is undergoing rapid demographic transition, where 50% of the population is under the age 25 and high youth unemployment rates are argued to be one of the main sources of political instability. Fighting youth ex- clusion from work is one of the main challenges in the region. In this paper we evaluate the economic impact of the demographic transition for selected coun- tries which experience di_erent speeds of transition, namely: Iran, Morocco and Egypt. The impact of demographic shift on the evolution of human capital stock and physical capital stock, has been highlighted by the literature. Since _nan- cial markets play a crucial role to allocate capital and channel the funds to the productive sector, it is hence fundamental to take into account the role of the _nancial markets in the growth process associated with demographic change. We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with a cost for capital mobilisation as a proxy for _nancial markets' e_ciency. We have found that the demographic shift will be an important driver for growth in the upcoming decades. Furthermore, our results show that a more e_cient _nancial sector leads to better economic performance. Speci_cally, youth are the primary bene_ciaries: an increase in the _nancial sector e_ciency can reduce up to 8 percentage points of the youngest age group unemployment.
    Keywords: Financial efficiency,Development,MENA region,Demographic transition
    Date: 2019–12
  4. By: Rana Hendy (American University in Cairo, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, Department of Public Policy); Mahmoud Mohieldin (The World Bank Group, 2030 Development Agenda, UN Relations and Partnership, Washington); Joelle El Sawalhi; Rebecca Spriggs
    Abstract: This paper examines how economic ideas have been shaped throughout history and the influence of these on the formulation of economic policy. We collect both quantitative and qualitative data from economists who are originally from the Middle East and North Africa region or working on the region. We find that economists and their ideas are more likely to be influenced by multiple schools of thought than adhere to one school. This multiplicity spills over into the type of solutions proposed to economic problems and thus policy implications. One of the main recommendations of this study is that there is a need for the development of economics and economists to recognize the impact of political and social issues that are not easy to grasp through modeling. This recommendation aligns with appreciation of the power of ideas rather than the influence of one school of economic thought.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  5. By: Betz, Frank; Ravasan, Farshad R.; Weiss, Christoph T.
    Abstract: Using panel data on Egyptian firms to explore cyclical and structural determinants of access to finance, we find that firms with more educated and more experienced managers are more likely to open a checking account, often a prerequisite for obtaining credit. Firms that started operating in the informal sector before registering are less likely to engage with the banking system. Exploiting data on the location of firms and bank branches, we also show that firms located in areas with a greater presence of banks that invest more in government debt are more likely to be credit constrained due to crowding out of the private sector.
    Keywords: financial constraints,crowding out,managerial skills
    JEL: G21 O15 O17
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
    Abstract: Despite numerous studies on the social and political impact of refugees in Europe, we have very little systematic evidence on the impact of refugee settlement on social cohesion in the developing world. Using data gathered in Northern Lebanon, we show that increased salience of the "refugee crisis" decreases natives' trust and prosocial preferences toward refugees, suggesting a negative impact of mass refugee settlement. However, this negative impact is driven exclusively by respondents with no individual exposure to refugees. In fact, despite concerns that refugee settlements may result in local conflict, we find that individual proximity to refugees is positively correlated with trust towards refugees, and that proximity has a positive spillover effect on social capital towards other migrants. This implies that, while the refugee crisis may have had a negative impact on social cohesion, this negative impact is mitigated in areas where natives are in contact with refugees.
    Keywords: migration,social capital,experiment,ethnicity
    JEL: F22 H41 D74
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Houda Boubaker (LAREQUAD, FSEGT, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia and Amse, Aix-Marseille School of Economics); Eric Girardin (Amse, Aix-Marseille School of Economics); Christophe Muller (Amse, Aix-Marseille School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of shocks to trend in explaining the business cycle fluctuations in MENA countries. Therefore, We estimate a stochastic growth model with both transitory and permanent shocks. Our results provide the evidence about the shocks to trend productivity as a driver of the macroeconomic movements in the region. We find also that the model succeed to match a key of the empirical regularities as for emerging economies, which is the high relative volatility of consumption to output. The examination of the model performance for oil exporting and importing MENA countries indicate that the role of trend is more pronounced for the former group. The examination of the determinants of MENA countries’ volatility identifies the trade openness, volatility of inflation rate, the quality of institution and the volatility of government consumption as source of shocks to productivity. Length: 83
    Date: 2019–09–20
  8. By: Belal Fallah (Palestine Polytechnic University)
    Abstract: By the end of the Second Intifada, which took place during the 2000-2004 period, the Palestinian government disproportionately expanded security personnel, overwhelmingly hiring males. This expansion has come at the expense of employing young educated females in the public education. In this paper, I utilize the employment decline in public education as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the causal effect of changes in labor demand on the labor force participation of the latter cohort The findings show that the employment contraction of public education decreases the probability of their labor force participation.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  9. By: Harkat, Tahar
    Abstract: A handful number of contributions have been trying to find a proper modeling strategy that captures the true dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic development in different economies, but none of them targeted Morocco. The relationship between these latter variables have been the point of interest of many economists, as they provide solid insights and guidance to policy makers related to monitoring the use of energy as well as the preparation of new energy infrastructures to meet the existing demand for the different existing consumers. For this, the following contribution determines this relationship using Granger causality test, and empirical findings shows that Morocco supports the conservation hypothesis, meaning that the only causal link is unidirectional and goes from GDP to energy consumption.
    Keywords: Energy Consumption, GDP, Economic development, Granger causality, Morocco
    JEL: O13 P28 P48 Q43
    Date: 2020–01–25
  10. By: Gwendoline Promsopha (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ingrid Tucci (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2019–12–18
  11. By: Rabhi, Ayoub
    Abstract: This study estimated the real equilibrium exchange rate and its misalignment by adopting the Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) approach and by using ARDL cointegration model, the aim is to interpret the impact of the determinants used to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and afterward to assess the importance of the exchange rate in the competitiveness of the Moroccan economy, by analyzing the evolution and the reaction of the trade balance vis-à-vis the misalignment. Thus, the results showed that the rise in terms of trade which is an indicator of economic competitiveness can have an impact on the appreciation of the exchange rate and therefore constrain Moroccan exports, this evidence confirms indeed the importance of the exchange rate as an instrument of price competitiveness; further analysis also demonstrated the possible delayed effect of the misalignment of the exchange rate on the Moroccan trade balance; The study also identified a competitiveness problem linked to the structure of the Moroccan economy showing an absence of the Blassa-Samuelson effect. We also found, that the impact of public spending on the exchange rate, shows a problem of the nature of this spending which is more oriented towards tradable goods contributing to higher imports and hence to the deterioration of the trade balance.
    Keywords: Taux de change d’équilibre; NATREX; Cointégration; Modèle ARDL; Compétitivité; Mésalignement; Balance commerciale; Maroc
    JEL: C5 E5 F1
    Date: 2020–01
  12. By: Ahsina, Khalifa; Ettahir, Noura
    Abstract: Le citybranding est récent au Maroc, en effet, c’est en 2016 que la ville de Casablanca crée la première marque-ville : « We Casablanca ». Mais, de plus en plus de villes tel que : Agadir, Fès, Marrakech, Rabat, Tanger, etc., se sont engagé dans des stratégies de marque afin de bâtir une image forte et de se distinguer. Pour C. Chamard (2004), nombreuses sont les villes qui sont à la recherche d’outils de mesure permettant de décrire et d’analyser la perception des différents publics (usagers, entreprises, touristes…) envers la marque ville. Au Maroc, aucun travail de recherche sur la mesure de ce concept n’a été réalisée, d’où l’intérêt de cette communication. Ainsi, dans ce papier, nous présenterons dans un premier point le concept de la Marque ville, ainsi qu’une revue de littérature sur les instruments de mesures relatifs à ce concept. La méthodologie choisie sera abordée par la suite, et enfin, un modèle conceptuel sera proposé.
    Keywords: Stratégies de marque, marque-ville, Maroc
    JEL: M3
    Date: 2019–03–15
  13. By: Bernoussi, Nedjma; Sirieix, Lucie
    Abstract: This research questions the relationship between perceived value and perceived authenticity, two key perceptual variables of consumer decision-making. An exploratory study applied to the case of olive oil from Algeria was conducted. Thirty individual interviews conducted with experts from the Algerian olive oil sector and consumers have identified: 1) the factors that contribute to building the perceived value of a food product as well as those that contribute to its perceived authenticity; 2) the role of perceived authenticity in the formation of perceived value; 3) and the consequences of this relationship in terms of purchasing and post-purchase behavior. In conclusion, a theoretical model presenting these concepts and their links is proposed to be tested. ....French Abstract: Cette recherche s’interroge sur la relation entre la valeur perçue et l’authenticité perçue, deux variables perceptuelles clés du processus décisionnel du consommateur. Une étude exploratoire appliquée au cas de l’huile d’olive d’Algérie a été menée. Trente entretiens individuels conduits auprès d’experts de la filière oléicole algérienne et des consommateurs ont permis d’identifier : 1) les facteurs qui contribuent à construire la valeur perçue d’un produit alimentaire ainsi que ceux qui contribuent à construire son authenticité perçue ; 2) le rôle de l’authenticité perçue dans la formation de la valeur perçue ; 3) et les conséquences de cette relation en termes de comportements d’achat et post-achat. En conclusion, un modèle théorique reprenant ces concepts et leurs liens est proposé pour être testé.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing
    Date: 2020–01–27
  14. By: الرسول, أ.د.أحمد أبواليزيد; عون, أ.د.عون خيرالله; شهاب, د.سامح محمد حسن; حسين, محمد عبدالكريم محمد
    Abstract: الملخص استهدف البحث بصفة أساسية محاولة بناء وقياس نموذج مقترح لمحددات الأداء المزرعي لمنتجي محصول العنب في ظل الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) بمنطقة النوبارية بعينة الدراسة لعام 2018، وتم استخدام نموذج اللوجيت (النموذج الاحتمالي ثنائي الاستجابة في المتغير التابع)، كما تم الاستعانة بالبيانات الأولية من خلال عينة عشوائية من المزارعين بقرية سيدنا سليمان بمنطقة النوبارية عن طريق المقابلة الشخصية باستخدام استمارة الاستبيان وبلغ عدد مفردات العينة لمحصول العنب 50 مفردة، وكانت أهم النتائج التي توصلت إليها الدراسة على النحو التالي: بتحليل الجوانب المتعلقة بالممارسات الزراعية الجيدة لمحصول العنب بمنطقة الدراسة لعام 2018 تبين أنها تتكون من ثلاثة جوانب رئيسية هي:1) الجوانب الفنية الزراعية والتي تشمل أربعة معاملات هي معاملات الخدمة وتجهيز الأرض للزراعة، المعاملات الإروائية، المكافحة والتسميد، معاملات الحصاد وما بعد الحصاد، 2) الجوانب البيئية، 3) الجوانب الاقتصادية والإدارية.كما تبين من تقدير نموذج اللوجيت لقياس محددات الأداء المزرعي للممارسات الزراعية الجيدة لمنتجي محصول العنب بمنطقة النوبارية بعينة الدراسة لعام 2018وجود علاقة طردية معنوية إحصائية بين احتمال تحقيق كفاءة الأداء المزرعي لمنتجي العنب وكل من سنوات تعليم المزارع، العمل البشري، السماد البلدي والسماد الآزوتي. واستناداً إلى النتائج المتحصل عليها أمكن استخلاص أن كل من مكونات رأس المال البشري في عينة الدراسة معبراً عنها عدد سنوات التعليم والعمل البشري، ومكونات رأس المال المادي معبراً عنها بمتغيرات السماد البلدي والسماد الآزوتي لها تأثير حقيقي على زيادة الناتج الزراعي وتحسين الأداء المزرعي لمنتجي محصول العنب بمنطقة النوبارية بعينة الدراسة، فالموارد البشرية هي الثروة الحقيقية للأمم وهي أحد أهم عناصر الإنتاج حيث تمثل عنصرين من عناصر الإنتاج هما عنصري العمل والإدارة، كما أنها تُعد أهم ركائز التوسع في نشر وتطبيق الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة، وتحقيق الاستخدام الأمثل للموارد المتاحة لهم،كما أن التوسع في استخدام السماد البلدي يتوافق مع الحفاظ على البيئة الزراعية وتوفير غذاء آمن للمستهلك ويتسق مع دليل الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة. وأخير يوصي البحث بعدة توصيات عمل رئيسية يمكن تلخيصها على النحو التالي: 1) نشر وصف وتعريف نهج الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة المبني على الركائز الثلاث للاستدامة (الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والبيئية) بما في ذلك سلامة الأغذية وأبعاد الجودة على نطاق واسع، 2) تحديد ومقارنة البرامج الحالية المتعلقة بالممارسات الزراعية الجيدة جنباً إلى جنب مع الدوافع والخبرات المحلية، 3) تنظيم ورش عمل لأصحاب المصلحة المتعددين لتمكين تطوير التطبيقات الزراعية الجيدة، 4) خلق القدرة لجميع الجهات الفاعلة من خلال التوعية وتبادل المعلومات والتدريب والمشروعات الرائدة، 5) تعبئة الموارد لتطوير وتطبيق نهج الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة خاصةً للمزارعين بالأراضي الجديدة. ABSTRACT The main objective of the research was to attempt to construct and measure a proposed model of the agricultural performance determinants for the farmers of the Grapes under the Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) in the Nubaria region. The Logit model was used with preliminary data from a random sample of farmers in the village of Sidna Sulaiman in Nubaria region through the interview using the questionnaire, the number of sample for the grape farmers was 50. The main findings of the study were as follows: The analysis of aspects of good agricultural practices for the grape farmers in the study area shows that it consists of three main aspects: 1) technical aspects of agriculture, which include four factors: service processing and land processing for agriculture, irrigation, control and fertilization, harvesting and post-harvest, 2) Environmental aspects, and 3) Economic and administrative aspects. The estimation of the logit model for the grapes in the Nubaria region in the sample of the study for 2018 showed that there is a significant positive correlation between the probability of achieving the efficiency of Farm performance of grape producers and years of farm education, human labor, municipal fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer. Based on the results, it was found that each of the human capital components in the sample of the study expressed the number of years of education and human labor, and the physical capital components as expressed by the variables of municipal fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer have a real effect on increasing agricultural output and improving the agricultural performance of The human resources are the real wealth of the nations and they are one of the most important elements of production. They represent two elements of production: the elements of labor and management. They are the most important pillars of the expansion of the application and application of good agricultural practices. The optimum use of the resources available to them, and the expansion of municipal fertilizer use is consistent with the preservation of the agricultural environment and the provision of safe food to the consumer and consistent with the GAP Manual. Finally, it is recommended to consider several key work that can be summarized as follows: 1) Disseminate and describe the GAP approach based on the three pillars of sustainability (economic, social and environmental) including food safety and quality dimensions on a large scale; 2) Identify and compare existing GAP programs together with local drivers and experiences, 3) Organize multi-stakeholder workshops to enable GAP development, 4) Create capacity for all actors through awareness raising, information exchange, training and pilot projects, 5) Mobilize resources for the development and application of GAP approaches, especially for farmers in the new land.
    Keywords: الممارسات الزراعية الجيدة (GAP)، نموذج اللوجيت، الأداء المزرعي، منطقة النوبارية. Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), Logit Model, Farm Performance, Nubaria Region.
    JEL: M11 Q01
    Date: 2019–08

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