nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2020‒02‒03
23 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  2. Discovering Hidden Patterns in Loan Reimbursement By Niknamian, Sorush
  3. THE EVOLUTION OF LABOR SUPPLY IN EGYPT FROM 1988-2018: A GENDERED ANALYSIS By Caroline Krafft; Ragui Assaad; Caitlyn Keo
  4. THE SCHOOL TO WORK TRANSITION AND YOUTH ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY IN EGYPT By Mona Amer; Marian AtallahAuthor-Name-First: Marian Author-Name-Last: AtallahAuthor-Email:
  7. Iran’s grass-roots politics and the nuclear deal By Kadivar, Mohammad Ali; Honari, Ali
  9. The Ayatollahs and the Republic: The religious establishment in Iran and its interaction with the Islamic Republic By Kadivar, Mohammad Ali
  10. Building the new Kuwait: Vision 2035 and the challenge of diversification By Olver-Ellis, Sophie
  13. Authoritarian Emigration States: Soft Power and Cross-Border Mobility in the Middle East By Tsourapas, Gerasimos
  15. An investigation of key success factors for restaurant operations in Saudi Arabia By Gadelrab, Reda; Ekiz, Erdogan
  16. Reforms and Employment in The Egyptian Labor Market: Evolution by Age From 1988 to 2006 By Selwaness, Irene
  17. comparative analysis on corruption in Iran and Japan By Niknamian, Sorush
  18. Modelling Risk on the Egyptian Stock Market: Evidence from a Markov-Regime Switching GARCH Process. By Ibrahim, Omar
  19. The role of doctors in Kuwait’s healthcare costs By Abdulsalam, Yousef
  20. تقدير الدورات الموسمية وأهم العوامل المؤثرة على الإنتاج السمكي بمصايد البحر الأحمر في مصر By الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; معيزة, د/ شيماء إبراهيم; برجل, د/إلهام شعبان
  21. السياحة في الجزائر: الانجازات و العراقيل و تحديات أجندة الإصلاح By Benzarour, Choukri; Ramdhani, Smail
  22. Kültür ve Ekonomik Başarı By Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil
  23. Vergi gelirlerinin tahminlenmesine yönelik ekonometrik model By Yılmaz, Engin

  1. By: Sarah El Khishin (Lecturer in Economics, BAEPS, The British University in Egypt); Mohamed Zaky (Lecturer in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University)
    Abstract: Fiscal policy is empirically proven in many papers as procyclical in developing countries as a result of longstanding weaknesses in budgetary and political institutions. We investigate the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Egypt and the influence of budgetary and political institutions on fiscal indicators during economic cycles. We measure the cyclicality of different components of the Egyptian budget in a disaggregated manner. Golden rule violation in Egypt adversely affected fiscal aggregates and contributed to adopting a countercyclical behavior during business cycles; then a procyclical policy over the long run when debt and deficit reach uncontained levels. Moreover, common pool, principal-agent and voracity problems in Egypt have also influenced the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Egypt as they have lead into an exacerbated pressure on public expenditure during booms and recessions in the examined period. Re-adopting the Golden rule to control the current spending trends and limit discretionary fiscal interventions is recommended. In the longer term, we recommend enhancing the quality of political institutions through changing the electoral system towards a party-based, rather than an individual-based system in order to moderate opportunistic abuse of fiscal aggregates and limit political influences over the budget
    Date: 2019–10–20
  2. By: Niknamian, Sorush
    Abstract: Loans are the major resources at banks. However, in some cases the cost that they incur to banks soar and finally makes them detrimental, as a result of irregular or delaying reimbursement or not paying at all. Due to the low wage rates in Iranian banks and the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) regulations in determining interest rates for deposits and loans, banks are becoming more and more dependent to the loans and their related profits. Therefore, banks have to look for customers with low risk for punctual payment. According to defect loan reimbursement in past years, banks have to specify severe prerequisites and limited contracts in granting loans to their customers. Contravening banking regulations and lack of consistent customers' accreditation banks are getting into heavy losses. Evaluating situations of the granted loans in EN Bank of Iran during a six-month period, based upon the profiles and loans history and the trend of payments useful patterns are discovered; designing a practical model of loan payment in Iran, the future default or failure to regain the granted loans is predicted and sensible methods of granting loans in Iran are developed. In order to extract hidden patterns in data statistical methods and data mining tools with focus on decision tree techniques are applied.
    Date: 2019–12–31
  3. By: Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); Ragui Assaad (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota 301 19th Avenue S., Minneapolis, MN); Caitlyn Keo (University of Minnesota 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul,)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the character of labor supply and especially female labor force participation in Egypt and its evolution over the thirty-year span from 1988 to 2018 using various waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey. The paper pays particular attention to women’s labor force outcomes while examining trends in labor force participation, employment, and unemployment. The population and labor supply in Egypt are analyzed by demographic characteristics such as age, sex, educational attainment, and location. Demographic changes, including in age at marriage and fertility, are explored as important determinants of both labor supply and women’s participation.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  4. By: Mona Amer (Cairo University); Marian AtallahAuthor-Name-First: Marian Author-Name-Last: AtallahAuthor-Email:
    Abstract: This paper explores the school-to-work transition patterns of young people in Egypt over the past two decades (1998-2018). In particular, it seeks to update the findings on labor market insertion trajectories using data from the most recent Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) fielded in 2018 along with its predecessor surveys in 1998, 2006 and 2012. The analysis makes use of the 2018 labor market history module to elicit information on early labor market outcomes such as the time taken to find the first job and the type of job found after completing education. We also define youth economic vulnerability in the work setting and investigate its symptoms in the Egyptian labor market including forms of precarious employment (such as informality and irregular work). Finally, we shed light on socioeconomic status as one of the potential channels behind this vulnerability. Results reveal a rise in informal employment among youth in recent years and suggest that belonging to a lower socioeconomic bracket (as proxied by mother’s education and father’s occupation) increases exposure to informality.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  5. By: Christian Ruckteschler (University of Oxford); Adeel Malik; Ferdinand Eibl (King’s College London)
    Abstract: Although non-tariff measures (NTMs) have surpassed tariffs as the most prevalent instrument of trade protection globally, our knowledge of what drives these NTMs is extremely limited. This paper sheds light on the political determinants of non-tariff protection using a rich empirical setting in Morocco. Taking advantage of a bilateral EU-Morocco trade agreement that resulted in an across the board tariff cut and a subsequent rise in NTMs, we use a difference-in-differences regression framework to show that sectors with close prior political connections to the royal family received disproportionately higher levels of non-tariff protection than unconnected sectors. We also demonstrate that, in the wake of the EU-induced tariff cut, connected sectors were mainly compensated through technical barriers to trade that depend on administrative oversight and are vulnerable to political influence.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  6. By: Ragui Assaad (The Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota); Abdelaziz AlSharawy (Department of Economics, Virginia Tech); Colette Salemi (Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: In terms of overall growth rates, the Egyptian economy has rebounded from the slowdown it experienced as a result of the global financial crisis, the 2011 revolution and the revolution’s aftermath. The question we explore in this paper is whether the recovery in growth rates has been accompanied by an improvement in the quantity, and especially the quality, of employment in Egypt. We examine how overall employment and job creation have evolved and then delve into the composition of employment in terms of sector, formality, industry structure, location in and out of establishments and establishment size. We also examine other aspects of job quality such as skill requirements, regularity, access to paid leaves, health insurance, hours of work, and exposure to workplace hazards and injuries, and we relate these aspects to the type of work that people are engaged in. As a measure of subjective job quality, we examine workers’ satisfaction with various aspects of their jobs and how it changed over time. We also trace the evolution of underemployment in the economy in the form of involuntary part-time work and educational over-qualification.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  7. By: Kadivar, Mohammad Ali (Brown University); Honari, Ali
    Abstract: The recently agreed-upon nuclear framework between Iran and the P5+1 world powers is a great example of how grass-roots participation at the level of domestic politics can interact with important changes at the level of international politics . The nuclear breakthrough could not have happened without important developments that led to the election of Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013 . If this agreement turns in to a comprehensive deal by June 2015, it will have important ramifications for Iranian domestic politics .
    Date: 2017–12–23
  8. By: Reem Hashad (University of Illinois)
    Abstract: Malnutrition is currently one of the largest threats to public health, with three million children dying worldwide per year as a result. This paper examines the determinants of children’s nutritional status in Egypt over time using an anthropometric index, height for age z score (HAZ), to assess children’s nutritional status. Over the last two decades, the HAZ distribution and the stunting rates in Egypt have changed markedly. However, what factors led to changes in the HAZ distribution in Egypt over time remains unknown. Using data from Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) for the years 1995, 2003 and 2014, I identify factors that are correlated with the change in the height of children aged 2-4. I use a semi-parametric approach proposed by Dinardo, Fortin and Lemieux (DFL,1996) that decomposes the changes in the HAZ distribution and stunting rates between 1995 and 2003, 2003 and 2014, and 1995 and 2014 into differences that could potentially be explained by differences in covariates and/or return to covariates. The covariates include child characteristics, maternal characteristics, household socioeconomic status and access to health care. The results indicate that the variation in HAZ distribution and stunting rates in Egypt over time are driven mainly by a change in the return to covariates. There is suggestive evidence that the change in the return to mother’s height and weight over time had a positive impact on the change of the child’s height. Additionally, health inequality exists across households with different income. Better policies targeted at increasing household income, mother’s employment and education can help reduce stunting rates by reducing illness and malnutrition.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  9. By: Kadivar, Mohammad Ali (Brown University)
    Abstract: The Islamic Republic of Iran is usually referred to as a theocracy, and this is a correct description in different senses. According to the constitution, a Shi’a cleric must fill the office of the leader, the highest de facto and de jure position in the country; a Shi’a jurist should also fill the head of judiciary; and Islam should be the main source of law-making in the country. On the other hand, if calling Iran a theocracy means that the Shi’a clergy as an institution rules the country, then this is not an accurate description. The clerical establishment, even after the revolution, has been separate from the regime, even though the relationship between these two entities has changed drastically after the revolution. While the Shi’a establishment in Qom claims authority over interpretation of the sacred text, the formation of a Shi’a government in Tehran with similar claims about Islamic authority and legitimacy in Tehran has created tensions and sometimes conflicts between these two. In this essay, I will look at patterns of conflict and cooperation between the Islamic Republic mainly the institution of Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of jurist) and the clerical establishment in Qom, specifically grand ayatollahs[2] or sources of emulation at the highest levels of the Shi’a clerical hierarchy.
    Date: 2017–12–22
  10. By: Olver-Ellis, Sophie
    Abstract: Against the backdrop of global oil price volatility, increasing budget deficits and a burgeoning unemployed youth population, Kuwait has decided to redesign its national political economy. ‘Vision 2035’ sets out an ambitious plan to diversify Kuwait’s economic base by boosting revenue beyond hydrocarbons, improving productivity of different socio-economic actors, and reducing reliance on the public sector for employment of nationals. Vision 2035 places labour market reforms, human capital advancement and a favourable business environment at the core of the country’s diversification efforts. This paper explores the key barriers to reform and the implementation of Vision 2035. It highlights how different actors have a vested interest in rent distribution, which hinders economic diversification. Disputes between the government and the National Assembly have also harmed the design of economic policies. The paper provides policy recommendations to help Kuwait meet the challenge of diversification, with particular focus on reforming the education system, introducing a universal basic income, strengthening the daʿm al-ʿamala (wage support) policy, introducing public sector employment caps and the introduction of meritocracy.
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2020–01–01
  11. By: Maye Ehab (University of Bamberg)
    Abstract: Youth in Egypt suffer from high rates of unemployment and inactivity. They are also heavily affected by the widespread use of informal employment. This paper addresses the effects of employment transitions on the health of youth in Egypt. It specifically focuses on the effect of temporary and informal employment compared to non-employment on the psychological health of youth. Using data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt for the years 2009 and 2014, I identify the causal effects of various employment transitions on mental health outcomes by estimating a matched difference-in-differences. Results show that the transition from nonemployment to employment improves the individual’s mental health in general. There are differences in the magnitude of the effect according to gender and the type of employment where those in informal and temporary employment have lower improvements compared to formal and permanent employment.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  12. By: Walid Mensi (College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University); Shawkat Hammoudeh (Lebow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, United States); Aviral Kumar Tiwari (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France); Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee (Department of Economics and Finance, College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the left and right tail dependence-switching structure between twelve MENA stock markets, and oil and other major global factors. We compare the MENA–oil tail dependence with that of Bitcoin, gold, and VIX. Using a recent combined wavelet and dependence-switching copula approach, we show evidence of significant tail dependence between MENA stock markets and oil and the other global factors. The dependence structure varies across the associated different regimes and under both the short- and long-term horizons. Moreover, the safe haven role of gold is more apparent in the long term than in the short term for all MENA markets, and this result is similar for Bitcoin but is less evident for VIX. We conclude by providing policy implications.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  13. By: Tsourapas, Gerasimos (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: Can labor emigration form part of a state’s foreign policy goals? The relevant literature links emigration to states’ developmental needs, which does not explain why some states choose to economically subsidize their citizens’ emigration. This article explores for the first time the soft power importance of high-skilled emigration from authoritarian emigration states. It finds that the Egyptian state under Gamal Abdel Nasser employed labor emigration for two distinct purposes linked to broader soft power interests: first, as an instrument of cultural diplomacy to spread revolutionary ideals of Arab unity and anti-imperialism across the Middle East; second, as a tool for disseminating development aid, particularly in Yemen and sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing on Arabic and non-Arabic primary sources, the article identifies the interplay between foreign policy and cross-border mobility, while also sketching an evolving research agenda on authoritarian emigration states’ policy-making.
    Date: 2018–01–08
  14. By: Semih Tumen (TED University)
    Abstract: Existing evidence suggests that low-skilled refugee influx increases high school enrollment among native youth due to increased competition for jobs with low skill requirements. In this paper, I ask whether the refugee influx has also increased the intensity of human capital accumulation for those who are enrolled in school. Using the PISA database and implementing an empirical strategy designed to exploit the time variation in regional refugee intensity within a quasi-experimental setting, I show that the Math, Science, and Reading scores of Turkish native adolescents have notably increased following the Syrian refugee influx—conditional on parental education, which is used as a proxy for unobserved ability. The increase in PISA scores is more pronounced for males than females. Most importantly, the increase in test scores mostly comes from the lower half of the test score distribution. This suggests that the refugee influx has reduced the test score inequality among natives. I conclude that the labor market forces that emerged in the aftermath of the refugee crisis have led native adolescents, who would normally perform worse in school, to take their high school education more seriously.
    Date: 2019–10–20
  15. By: Gadelrab, Reda; Ekiz, Erdogan
    Abstract: This exploratory, qualitative and descriptive study aims to find out critical success factors in restaurant operations and identify measures of success. Ten restaurants in Jeddah were approached to collect data through face to face semi-structured interviews. The purpose of interviews was to explore their experiences and insights into core factors contributing to the practice of their success. Responses from the restaurants’ operators were used to analyze critical factors responsible for their success. Strategy, marketing, menu, and staffing issues were considered in assessing the critical factors contributing to success in restaurant operations.
    Keywords: Restaurant Industry, Success factors, Service Management, Qualitative Research, Semi-Structured interviews
    JEL: D4 G1
    Date: 2019–11–30
  16. By: Selwaness, Irene
    Abstract: This paper aims to study the evolution in the age composition of males' employment in the aftermath of the public sector downsizing in the 1990s -during the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Policies - and the new labor law in 2003. This answers the question of whether young (15-29) and older (50-59) male workers were the most likely to bear the brunt of the 1990s reforms and the new labor law in 2003. Employment, formality and hours-of-work are simultaneously estimated by maximum likelihood to control for the self-selection, using three repeated cross sectional samples from Egyptian Datasets conducted in 1988, 1998 and 2006. Results show that men aged (15-29) and those aged (50-59) were less likely, as compared to their peers in middle age (30-49), to be employed in 1998 than in 1988 (before the first reform). While informality has affected all age groups, the 30 to 49 years old were the category that experienced the most rapid increase in informality as compared to the other two age groups. Findings also show evidence of negative correlation between the probability of employment and the probability of having a formal job, indicating that those who have more incidence to work in formal jobs are more likely to remain unemployed or inactive.
    Keywords: Structural Adjustment Programs,Labor Supply,Informality,Simultaneous Equations,Middle-East,Egypt
    JEL: J08 J21 N35 C3
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Niknamian, Sorush
    Abstract: The corruption is a phenomenon with which some countries have been today grappled, especially developing nations. It has multiple causes and consequences and its range starts from an individual action (e.g. bribe) and covers all cornerstones of political and economic system and is developed. Despite complexity, difficulty and sensitivity of involvement with this symptom, the extensive studies have been conducted for measurement of corruption, expression of reasons for perpetration of such criminal activity and presentation of deterrent solutions by international communities during recent years. This study aims to conduct comparative analysis on corruption in Iran and Japan and the findings suggest that Iran has acquired rank 130 in received corruption while Japan received rank 74 in this regard.
    Date: 2019–12–30
  18. By: Ibrahim, Omar
    Abstract: This research aims at evaluating among market risk measures to equity exposures on the Egyptian stock market, while utilising a variety of parametric and non-parametric methods to estimating volatility dynamics. Historical Simulation, EWMA (RiskMetrics), GARCH, GJR-GARCH, and Markov-Regime switching GARCH models are empirically estimated. Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk measures are backtested in order to evaluate among the alternative models. Results indicate the superiority of asymmetric GARCH models when combined with a Markov-Regime switching process in quantifying market risk - as is evident from the results of the backtests - which have been performed in accordance with the current regulatory demands. Implications are important to regulators and practitioners.
    Keywords: Risk Management, Value at Risk, GARCH, Markov Chains
    JEL: C58
    Date: 2019–12
  19. By: Abdulsalam, Yousef
    Abstract: In healthcare supply management, the physician’s role in supply selection, driven largely by their clinical expertise, directly impacts hospital cost performance. Previous research suggests physicians have limited regard to the cost implications of supplies they use or prescribe, even when it does not adversely impact clinical quality. The purpose of this study is to assess the perceived importance and attention that physicians give to the costs of medical supplies in a public healthcare system and compares between physician cost perceptions of pharmaceutical products and medical devices. Physicians working in Kuwait’s public health sector were asked to estimate the cost of 18 common pharmaceutical products and medical devices. Estimates within 25 percent of the actual cost were considered accurate. One-hundred and four responses were gathered from physicians working in Kuwait’s public health sector. On average, physicians accurately estimated only 22 percent of pharmaceutical products and 14 percent of medical devices. Physicians indicated cost should be an important supply selection criterion but generally indicated limited accessibility to cost information. Hospital administrators should consider increasing accessibility to cost information and involving physician leaders in procurement and supply rationalization initiatives. Education about supply management and cost containment may hold value for both physicians and the healthcare system.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–12–01
  20. By: الرسول, أد/ أحمد أبواليزيد; معيزة, د/ شيماء إبراهيم; برجل, د/إلهام شعبان
    Abstract: استهدف البحث دراسة مدى إمكانية زيادة الإنتاج السمكي من البحر الأحمر في ضوء تحديد نوع الموسمية السائدة بمصايد البحر الأحمر سواء كانت موسمية منتظمة أم موسمية عشوائية. وقد توصلت الدراسة لمجموعة من النتائج تتمثل فيما يلي: (1) يتناقص الإنتاج السمكي من مصايد البحر الأحمر بمعدل سنوي معنوي إحصائياً عند مستوى 1% بلغ نحو 3.42%، في حين ازداد الدخل السمكي من مصايد البحر الأحمر بمعدل نمو سنوي معنوي إحصائياً عند مستوى 1% بلغ نحو 2.86%، ويساهم هذا الدخل بحوالي 36.8% من متوسط إجمالي الدخل السمكي من المصايد البحرية، أو حوالي 4.6% من متوسط إجمالي الدخل السمكي المصري. (2) المتغيرات التفسيرية الأكثر تأثيراً على كمية الإنتاج السمكي من مصايد البحر الأحمر استناداً إلى معامل الانحدار الجزئي القياسي (Beta) هي متغير متوسط سعر الطن، يليه متغير أعداد الصيادين، ثم درجة حرارة المياه عند عمق 2m، وأخيراً يأتي متغير أعداد المراكب الآلية. (3) يتميز نمط الموسمية السائدة في هذا المصيد من خلال دراسة مؤشر Seasonality Indexأن متوسط الإنتاج السمكي الشهري يقل عن المتوسط العام خلال الشهور مايو ويونيو ويوليو وأغسطس وسبتمبر، والذي يأتي تزامناً مع فترة وقف الصيد لبعض حرف الصيد في مصايد البحر الأحمر وبداية موسم الصيد. (4) الموسمية منتظمة أو حتمية "محددة" Deterministic تم اختبار مدى وجود الموسمية بافتراض الاستقرار وذلك بإستخدام اختبار F تبين استقرارها عند مستوى 1%. ولتأكيد تلك النتيجة تم إجراء اختبار لا معلمي وهو اختبار كروسكال-واليسKruskal-Wallis تبين استقرارها عند مستوى 5%، كما تبين استقرار الموسمية المتحركة Moving Seasonality باستخدام اختبار F عند مستوى 1%. وبتطبيق اختبار HEGY على البيانات الشهرية للإنتاج السمكي بمصايد البحر الأحمر خلال فترة الدراسة توجد دورات موسمية منتظمة أو حتمية أو متكررة في الإنتاج عند مستوى %5. وهذا يدل على أن التأثير المباشر للدورة الإنتاجية (المناخية) يهيمن على أي تطورات تكنولوجية محتملة في الإنتاج السمكي المصري بمصايد البحر الأحمر. (5) تبين أن نموذج ARIMA (1,1,1) هو الأفضل بين جميع النماذج التي تم تقديرها للتنبؤ بالإنتاج السمكي الشهري من مصايد البحر الأحمر، وأن معامل الارتباط بين القيم الفعلية والقيم التنبؤية بلغ حوالي 0.937 وهو معنوي عند مستوى 1%.
    Abstract: There is an urgent need to study the productive seasonality from natural fisheries in general and Red Sea fisheries in particular. The fish catch deficit is about 263.3 thousand tons in 2016, due to the inability of natural fisheries to meet fish needs due to depletion of fish stock, the negative effects of pollution in those fisheries and Fish seasonality of fish catch that causes fluctuations in fish supply in the local market and fish price in market and its alternatives, which ultimately affects individuals ’ability to obtain their needs of fish protein. This paper aimed to study the possibility of increasing fish catch from the Red Sea in light of the prevailing fish seasonality in the Red Sea, whether it is a deterministic seasonality or stochastic seasonality. This study reached a set of results as follows: (1) Fish catch from Red Sea fisheries decreases about 3.42% at a statistically significant annual rate at the level of 1%, while fish income from Red Sea fisheries increased at a statistically significant annual growth rate of about 2.86%, and this income contributes about 36.8% of The average gross fish income from marine fisheries, or about 4.6% of the average total fish income from Egypt. (2) The explanatory variables that most affect the amount of fish catch from Red Sea fisheries based on the standard partial regression coefficient (Beta) are the average price per ton, followed by the number of fishers, then the water temperature at a depth of 2m, and finally comes the variable number of motorboats. (3) The prevailing seasonal pattern in Red sea fisheries by studying the Seasonality Index that the average monthly fish catch is less than the general average during the months May, June, July, August and September, which coincides with the stop fishing period of some fishing methods in the Red Sea fishery and the beginning of the fishing season. (4) Deterministic seasonality is regular or inevitable. Seasonal presence was tested with the assumption of stability using F test showing stability at 1% level. To confirm this result, a non-teacher test was conducted, which was the Kruskal-Wallis test, which showed stability at 5%, and Moving Seasonality using F test at 1%. By applying the HEGY test to monthly data for fish production in Red Sea fisheries during the study period, there are regular, inevitable, or repeated seasonal cycles of production at the 5% level. This indicates that the direct impact of the (climate) productive cycle dominates any potential technological developments in Egyptian fish production in the Red Sea fisheries. 5) Predicting monthly fish production from Red Sea fisheries shows that the ARIMA model (1,1,1) is the best among all the models that were estimated and the highest correlation coefficient, where the correlation coefficient between actual and predictive values was about 0.937 which is statistically significant at the level of 1%. Key words: Red Sea Fisheries, Seasonality, Fish Production, Forecasting, HEGY Test
    Keywords: مصايد البحر الأحمر، الدليل الموسمي، الدورات الموسمية، اختبار HEGY، التنبؤ، نموذج آريما.
    JEL: Q22
    Date: 2020–02
  21. By: Benzarour, Choukri; Ramdhani, Smail
    Abstract: Algeria has many untapped tourism assets. This paper confirms many indications of an emerging tourism industry. There are also many obstacles that hinder the growth and expansion of the tourism sector. Therefore, it presents a selective analysis on the priorities of a deep reform, which passes through the preparation of a strategic work program and a gradual institutional reform aimed at undertaking the burdens of developing tourism that attract more tourists who spend more time and more money. The paper also addressed tourism security issues and the necessary openness to foreign investment and to the English language. The proposed reform agenda provides a road map for transforming tourism into one of the most important pillars of diversifying the Algerian economy and reducing dependency on hydrocarbons, and its implementation allows reaping significant benefits in the medium and long term.
    Keywords: Tourism; Algeria; reform agenda; performance
    JEL: L8 L83 L88
    Date: 2020–01–27
  22. By: Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil
    Abstract: Kültürün rolüne dair yeni bir paradigma, kültürün, sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı mümkün kılmak veya ekonomik başarı elde etmek üzere bireyler ve toplumlar için zengin bir varlık olduğudur. Kültür, pek çok kanal aracılığıyla, ekonomik performansa ve kalkınmaya önemli katkılarda bulunur. Bunlar, kısaca şu şekilde özetlenebilir (Sen, 2004, s. 39-43): 1. Kalkınmayı oluşturan unsurlardan biri olarak kültür: Kalkınma için gerekli bir şart olan refahın artması ve özgürlüklerin genişlemesi, ancak müzik, edebiyat, güzel sanatlar veya diğer kültürel ifade ve pratiklerin yaşamlarımızı zenginleştirmesiyle mümkün olabilir. Kişi başına oldukça yüksek bir gayri safi milli hasılaya (GSMH) ancak çok düşük müziğe, sanata, edebiyata vs. sahip olmak bir ekonomik kalkınma başarısı değildir. 2. Ekonomik olarak kazançlı kültürel faaliyetler ve nesneler: Ekonomik getirisi olan çeşitli faaliyetler doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak kültürel olanaklara ve daha genel olarak kültürel çevreye bağlı olabilir. Kültürel turizm, bunun bir örneğidir. Müzik, dans ve diğer kültürel aktiviteler de oldukça büyük –hatta küresel- ticari pazarlar oluşturabilir. 3. Kültürel faktörler ekonomik davranışı şekillendirir: Pek çok iktisatçı, bireylerin izole bir şekilde kişisel çıkarlarını ençoklayacak bir biçimde davrandığını düşünse de gerçekte bu durum genelde böyle değildir. Kültürel faktörler; iş etiği, sorumlu davranış, risk alma iştahı, girişimcilik gibi ekonomik başarıyı etkileyebilecek birçok insan davranışı üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Ayrıca, ekonomik ürünlerin değiş-tokuşunun başarılı bir şekilde işletilmesi, yine kültürle ilişkili olan karşılıklı güvene ve örtük normlara bağlıdır. 4. Kültür ve siyasi katılım: Sivil etkileşimlere ve siyasi faaliyetlere katılım kültürel koşullardan etkilenir. Kamusal tartışma ve katılımcı etkileşimler geleneği, siyaset süreci için gereklidir ve demokrasinin kurulması, korunması ve uygulanması için önemli olabilir. Katılım kültürü, önemli bir sivil erdemdir. 5. Sosyal dayanışma ve birlik: Ekonomik etkileşimler ve politik katılımın yanı sıra, toplumsal dayanışma ve karşılıklı desteğin işletilmesi de kültürden etkilenebilir. Sosyal yaşamın başarısı, büyük ölçüde insanların birbirleri için yapabilecekleri şeylere (daha az şanslı olan kişilerin bakımı, ortak varlıkların korunması vs.) bağlıdır. Bir topluluktaki, diğerlerine yakınlık duygusu, bu topluluk için büyük bir varlık olabilir. 6. Kültürel sahalar ve geçmiş miras: Bir topluluğun veya ülkenin kültürel tarihinin sistematik bir şekilde keşfedilmesi, o topluluğun veya ülkenin geçmişinin daha açık ve geniş bir şekilde anlaşılmasını sağlar. Tarih, çoğunlukla, günümüzün yoğun siyasi - ve çoğu zaman tarih ile ilgili olmayan - yorumlarının izin verdiği eğilimlerden çok daha fazla kültürel etki ve gelenek içerir. Örneğin, Hindu milliyetçilerinin Hindistan’ı Hindu bir ülke olarak görme ve diğer dinleri daha aşağı bir statüde konumlandırma çabaları, Hint tarihinin muhteşem çeşitliliği (Jain kültürü, 4.yüzyıldan itibaren Hristiyanların varlığı, 8.yüzyıldan itibaren Zerdüştlerin varlığı, Müslümanlar ve Hindular arasındaki etkileşim, Sihizm dininin ortaya çıkışı ve büyümesi) ile örtüşmemektedir. Bu nedenle, tarihi nesneler, siteler ve kayıtlar, çatışmacı modern siyasetin yol açtığı tahribatın bir kısmını telafi etmeye yardımcı olabilir. Tarihsel nesnelerin ve alanların ortaya çıkarılması, korunması ve erişilebilirliği aracılığıyla geçmiş kültürel çeşitliliğin vurgulanması, çağdaş ortamlarda çeşitliliğe tolerans gösterilmesinde ve bir ulusun geçmişinin “monokültürel” okumalarının çatışma için kullanılmasına karşı bir rol oynayabilir. Tarihin hatırlanması, hoşgörünün geliştirilmesinde ve çeşitliliğin kutlanmasında –ki bunlar doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak kalkınmanın önemli özellikleri arasındadır- büyük bir destek sağlayabilir. 7. Değer oluşumu ve evrimi üzerindeki kültürel etkiler: Kültürel faktörler, değerlerin oluşmasında merkezi bir role sahip olabilir. Örneğin, düşük doğurganlık oranları, kız ve erkek çocukları arasında ayrımcılık olmaması, çocukları okula göndermeyi istemek gibi normların oluşması serbest ve açık kamusal tartışma kültürü tarafından etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışma, kültürün ekonomik performansa etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Bunun için, öncelikle anaakım iktisat literatüründe kültürün ekonomik performansa etkisi üzerine yapılan akademik çalışmaların bulguları derlenmiş, ardından UNESCO’nun kültür-ekonomik kalkınma ilişkisine dair yaklaşımı özetlenmiş ve anaakım iktisat alanyazınının bulguları ışığında UNESCO’nun yaklaşımı değerlendirilmiştir. Bu çalışma boyunca, ekonomik başarıdan veya performanstan kast edilen kâr marjlarının motive ettiği vahşi ve yıkıcı ticari başarı değil kapsayıcı ve sürdürülebilir ekonomik ilerlemedir. Bu çalışmanın sonunda, UNESCO’nun çeşitli başarılarına rağmen, kültürün kalkınma politika ve stratejilerine yaygınlaştırılması ihtiyacının devam ettiği, bu tespitin Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma 2030 Hedeflerinin bağlamında bariz bir şekilde görüldüğü ifade edilmiştir. Bundan sonrasında kültürün ekonomik başarıya veya sürdürülebilir kalkınmaya katkısını artırmak için olası öneriler sıralanmış, bu önerileri gerçekleştirmek için her şeyden önce kültürü kentsel yönetişime entegre edilmesi gerektiği, bu kapsamda, özellikle yerel yönetimlere önemli sorumluluklar düştüğü ifade edilmiştir.
    Keywords: culture, economic growth, sustainable development
    JEL: O1 O19 Z1
    Date: 2019–08
  23. By: Yılmaz, Engin
    Abstract: Vergi gelirleri, Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli gelir kalemlerinden birisidir. Vergi gelirleri güçlü bir ekonominin en önemli göstergesidir. Ülkemizde yıllar itibariyle vergi gelirleri sürekli bir artış göstermiş ve 2018 yılı itibariyle vergi gelirlerinin tutarı milli gelirin %24’ü seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Kalkınma Bakanlığınca, Orta Vadeli Program/Orta Vadeli Mali Plan içerisinde gerçekleştirilen vergi gelirleri tahminleri büyük sapmalar göstermektedir. Bu çalışma içerisinde öncelikle vergi gelirleri serisinin tarihsel süreç içerisindeki gelişimi ve yapısı incelenip, Kalkınma Bakanlığınca yapılan tahminlerin sonuçları detaylı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu makale ARIMA metodunun sonuçlarının, devlet kurumlarının sonuçlarından daha iyi olduğunu göstermiştir.
    Keywords: Vergi Gelirleri, Vergi Tahminleri, Vergi Gelirlerinin Tahminlenmesi.
    JEL: C1 C5 H2 H20
    Date: 2018–11–01

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