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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Shahad Alarenan; Anwar Gasim; Lester C. Hunt (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | In 2016 Saudi Arabia’s industrial (or manufacturing) sector accounted for 30.3% of total final energy consumption (IEA 2018a). When non-energy use (mainly feedstock for the petrochemical subsector) is included, the industrial sector᾽s share of total final energy consumption rises to over 50%. |
| Keywords: | Decomposition analysis, Econometrics, Energy consumption, Energy demand, Energy Efficiency, Energy Policy Reform |
| Date: | 2019–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp63&r=all |
| By: | Sylvain Cote (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | While the renewable energy sector needs more workers per megawatt of energy generated than fossil fuel-based energy sectors, a sound and dynamic labor market is necessary for local populations to enjoy the benefits of employment. A well-functioning market can help improve labor market information and assess the training needs of employees in the renewable energy sector. |
| Keywords: | Renewables, Labor, Labor Market, Employment, Morocco, Jordan, Eqypt |
| Date: | 2019–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp69&r=all |
| By: | Ege Aksu (The Graduate Center, CUNY); Refik Erzan (Department of Economics Bogazici University); Murat Güray Kırdar (Department of Economics Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology—unlike recent papers in the same setting—makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls—which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatm nt regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | Labor Force and Employment, Wages, Immigrant Workers, Formal and Informal Sectors, Syrian Refugees, Turkey, Difference-in-differences, Instrumental Variables |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 C26 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1915&r=all |
| By: | Hatem Hamdi (EVS - Environnement Ville Société - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées) |
| Abstract: | Hotel debt in Tunisia has many origins and some antecedents that have always been present until today. It depends mainly on the situation lived during the colonization among which, the means deployed for its structuring and its launch like the role played by the bank loans. With the practice of hotel loans, the introduction of advantageous procedures for capital and the application of various taxes, the hotel industry turns out to be a random sector in its infancy and in decline by its indebtedness in the present time. |
| Abstract: | L'endettement hôtelier en Tunisie a de multiples origines et certains antécédents qui ont toujours été présent jusqu'à nos jours. Il dépend principalement de la situation vécue pendant la colonisation parmi les lesquels, les moyens déployés pour sa structuration et son lancement comme le rôle joué par les prêts bancaires. Avec la pratique des crédits hôteliers, l'instauration de procédures avantageuses en faveur des capitaux et l'application des différentes taxes, l'industrie hôtelière s'avère un secteur aléatoire à ses débuts et en déclin par son endettement au temps actuel. Mots clés : hôtellerie, endettement, Tunisie coloniale et postcoloniale, crédit et taxe, héritage structurel. |
| Keywords: | deb,credit and tax,structural inheritance,colonial and postcolonial Tunisia,hotel,Tunisie coloniale et post-coloniale,Héritage structurel,Endettement,Crédit et taxe,Hôtellerie |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:ujm-01876645&r=all |
| By: | Abdurrahman B. Aydemir (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Orhanlı, Tuzla 34956, Istanbul); Murat Güray Kırdar (Department of Economics Bogazici University 34342 Istanbul, Turkey); Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We take advantage of a major compulsory school reform in Turkey to provide novel evidence on the causal effect of education on both the incidence and timing of internal migration. In addition, for the first time in literature, we provide causal effects of education on migration by reason for migration. We find that while education substantially increases the incidence of migration among men, there is no evidence of an effect among women. Women, however, become more likely to migrate at earlier ages and their migration reasons change. Revealing the empowering role of education, women become more likely to move for human capital investments and for employment purposes and less likely to be tied-movers. |
| Keywords: | education, internal migration, incidence and timing of migration, reason for migration, 2SLS, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J61 I2 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1914&r=all |
| By: | Usman, Berto (University of Bengkulu) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to elaborate the usage of decomposed theory of planned behavior, in terms of users’ perspective of utilizing financial technology (FinTech) application in startup firms. Hereby, there are 375 respondents participated in the online survey. The survey was conducted through several social media platforms namely; WhatApps, Messenger, Linkedln, e-mail and Line group. The targeted respondents are from Italy, Turkey, and Indonesia. In this study, the constructs are generated from the decomposed theory of planned behavior as developed by Shih & Fang, (2004). Every indicator used in this research must be following several instrumental tests such as validity and reliability test. In order to get more knowledge and description about the different perceptions of users in three cross-country tests, the correlation analysis and descriptive statistics analysis with countries’ mean score are employed. According to the results, it is noted that Italian mean score (3.61) in regard to behavior intention (BI) of using financial technology application as the product of FinTech startup firms is relatively higher than the mean scores of Turkish (3.27) and Indonesian users (3.27). |
| Date: | 2018–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:nmbq9&r=all |
| By: | Bastian, Caleb (Massive Dynamics, Princeton, NJ); Bastian, John; Brossoie, Mia |
| Abstract: | We develop an economic game concerning the creation of a player with unitary characteristics that is adapted to a rare and unique resource. To do so, we use a multi-disciplinary method to define the game, where we identify the player through a process called comprehensive treatment planning. We advance first the perspective that preservation of built heritage is homologous to restoration of form and function in dentistry, and we explore how concepts in dentistry in the approach to patient casework may be applied to considerations of preservation of built heritage, vis-a-vis comprehensive treatment planning and a generalist-specialist model. To go about this, key tools are utilized, including Oswald Spengler's model of cultures as organisms and the stone throwing construction from mathematics. Key results are existence of homology between dentistry and built heritage, and the interpretation of certain instances of built heritage as archaeo-socio-economic perpetuities. We illustrate comprehensive treatment planning with a case study on Giza Necropolis of Ancient Egypt, containing around 10 million Pharaonic stones. Diagnosis is stone loss and chronic and acute inflammation. Comprehensive treatment planning is outlined in terms of Phases 0 - 3, where 0 is emergency, 1 is information acquisition and control of pathology, 2 is restoration, and 3 is maintenance. Strictly reversible restorations are utilized in as much as Giza Necropolis is unable to give consent. The elaboration of Phase 3 for Giza Necropolis as an archaeo-socio-economic perpetuity conveys a Pharaonic unitary representation called `Pyramid City.' We build a mathematical model for the revenues of Pyramid City and of bilateral trade flow between Pyramid City and locations in Egypt and describe strategies to maximize the Sharpe ratios. We describe real-world next steps for comprehensive treatment planning, i.e. playing the game. |
| Date: | 2019–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:a3kep&r=all |
| By: | Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates how compliance with national labor law and international labor standards within Jordan's garment exporting factories changed after the implementation of a transparency program that made compliance assessments publicly available. The estimation employs data from Better Work Jordan that cover all garment-exporting factories over the 2008-2018 period. Using a difference-in-difference approach that is often applied to control for endogeneity, this paper finds that compliance improved following the implementation of transparency. Compliance increased in a group of 28 critical compliance areas that represent fundamental worker rights relative to relevant comparison groups. The results are robust to a number of additional controls, definitions of the transparency period, and estimation approaches. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, working conditions, transparency |
| JEL: | J8 J5 J3 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12794&r=all |
| By: | Sulin Sardoschau (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper combines detailed household-level data on child health with geo-coded incidences of vi- olence in Iraq to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to violence on biometric, behavioral and cognitive outcomes of children. Rich data on severity (duration and casualties), type (bombings, ex- plosions, gun_re etc.), and perpetrators of violence (coalition, insurgent, or sectarian) on the district level allow me to discriminate between two possible mechanisms: damages to the infrastructure versus violence-induced pre-natal stress for mothers. Comparing siblings within the same household, I find that one single violent incidence during pregnancy significantly increases the risk of stuntedness, malnutrition and weakens major cognitive and behavioral skills. While the type of violence does not seem to play a major role, the perpetrator of violence seems to matter. Violent acts that explicitly target the civilian population, even if they have little e_ect on the general infrastructure, appear to be the driver behind the effect. |
| Keywords: | stress,violence,health,Iraq |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-02383137&r=all |
| By: | Rybanska, Jana; Polat, Dogukan; Nagyova, L'udmila; Andocsova, Alexandra; Geci, Andrej |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the consumer behaviour of young Slovak and Turkish consumerson the market of cow’s milk.Opinions of nutrition specialists differ on whether it is beneficial or notfor humans to consume the cow’s milk.However, in general, milk is considered to be a very important component of the diet not only for children but also for adults. Both countries, Turkey and Slovakia rank among important producers of milk and milk products. This study explores and compares consumers’ preferences for milk in chosen areas of Turkey and Slovakia and also tries to determine the profiles of young adult consumers based on their preferences, selected psychological dispositions and socio-demographic factors. To reach these objectives, the simple questionnaire was designed, and data were collected among young adults in Turkey and Slovakia. In our study we work with two independent samples. The first sample consists of 270 young adults (aged 25 – 42) from Nitra, Slovakia and the second sample consists of 585 young adults from Istanbul, Turkey.The paper provides useful information about the consumer behaviour of young adults (Millennials) in both countries and analysespromotional strategies of milk on Turkish and Slovak market for this target group. Associations that consumers have with milk can influence their buying behaviour on the market of milk and milk products. The way consumers perceive milk can also influence the way they perceive milk packaging. Milk packaging that consumers have already known can influence their associations with milk and also with other milk packaging that they expect. Product packaging is essential for consumer perception and resulting buying behaviour. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296778&r=all |
| By: | Boz, Ismet; Kaynakei, Cevahir |
| Abstract: | Although there is no universally accepted definition of organic farming, most of the scientists focus on an economic, social, and environmentally sustainable agricultural production system that prohibits chemical fertilizers, pesticides, growth regulators, and livestock feed additives. Organic farming in a region must provide a sustainable livelihood for farmers, clean environment for all living organisms, and healthy food items at reasonable prices for consumers. The overall purpose of this studyis to examine the current state and potential developments of organic agriculture in Turkey. The paper first reviews the principles of organic agriculture, then gives information about the legislative process and developments of organic agriculture in Turkey. Specific objectives are to examine the legal structure, organic production, marketing of organic products, and strategies to develop organic agriculture in Turkey. Qualitative research methods were applied to accomplish the objectives of this study. For this reason, journal articles, books, websites, state statistics, and official reports were used for data collection. The basic outline of the paper organized considering the overall purpose and specific objectives of the study. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296769&r=all |
| By: | Guner, Mehmet |
| Abstract: | According to the data of the year 2019, Ziraat Bank, the largest bank in Turkey, was established in 1888. The foundation of the Bank is a summary of the reforms undertaken by the Ottoman state in agriculture and the problems it faced during this period. Memleketsandıkları was an improved solution to enable small farmers to access low-cost financing. Founded by Mithat Pasha in 1863, the memleketsandıklarıis considered as the first example of agricultural cooperatives. It is an organization model that allows farmers live in a specific region to gather funds and use these funds in accordance with certain rules. The project, which was implemented in the Ottoman state for 20 years, was restructured in 1863 due to lack of capital and corruption. In this context, the name of the memleketsandıkları was changed as menafisandıkları, a percentage added to the over ten percent tax from farmers in order to provide capital support and menafisandıkları were subject to the control of the Ministry of Commerce. Although menafisandıkları support agricultural activities and farmers, it was decided to establish Ziraat Bank as a result of the development of banking activities and a national bank search of State administrators. Menafisandıkları are transferred to the bank with their assets and liabilities. Thus, the process started with the memleketsandıklarıwas completed with the establishment of Ziraat Bank. Since its foundation, Ziraat Bank has been an alternative source of funding for farmers and has supported farmers financially. In the bank's contract of association, it was decided to allocate one third of the bank's profits to the capital while two thirds to be used for agricultural reforms. This fund has made significant contributions to the implementation of agricultural reforms in the Ottoman Empire. In addition, Ziraat Bank was institutionalized as a bank and encouraged structural developments in the agricultural sector. The aim of this study is to present the process of establishment of Ziraat Bank, which is shown as the first example of agricultural cooperatives. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296793&r=all |
| By: | Ahmed, Osama; Sallan, Walid |
| Abstract: | Egypt is considered a higher wheat importer in the world, and given the reality that futures prices lead spot prices that makes the Egyptian prices vulnerable to future wheat markets. This study assesses the relationship between Egyptian flour prices and future wheat prices associated with Paris (MATIF) and USA (CBOT). Markov switching-vector error correction methods are used to estimate two regimes by splitting the sample by high and low volatility regimes. This study also examines the dynamic conditional correlation using Asymmetric-Dynamic Conditional Correlation with Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH). Results suggest a high volatility regime observes especially during the extreme market events; in the time of the food crisis 2007/2008 and 2010 as well as after two revaluations in Egypt in 2011 and 2013 and during the economic reforms in 2016, mainly in the range from 0 to 0.4 before crisis, while the fluctuations are higher in the time of food crisis, revolutions and economic reform that in the range from -0.2 to 0.8. This implies that the negative impact of the economic and political crisis on the consumer prices. The results provide evidence of symmetric volatility spillovers from future markets to Egyptian wheat market. Results from impulse response functions indicate that shock by 1% in the future markets will lead to positive shock in the flour spot market in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296768&r=all |
| By: | Akgul, Fusun; Akgul, Riza |
| Abstract: | Because of increasing human population and their food need the agricultural production increases, too. But meanwhile artificial fertilizer using and their negative effects to ecosystem are rising day by day. So, the scientist research different alternative solution for this pollution such as eco-friendly biofertilizer.Group of Cyanobacteria consists of photosynthetic prokaryotic microorganisms that has a highly diversity. Cyanobacteria can produce different metabolites that are valuable economically such as amino acids, proteins, vitamins etc. This study focuses the effects of different concentrations of Spirulina platensis (Gomont) Geitler extracts on the germination of lettuce seeds. For this purpose, root-stem length, lateral root number and wet-dry weight were investigated. The application of S5 (100% cell extract) showed an inhibitory effect on seed germination and so other parameters could not be measured. S2 (25% cell extract) and S3 (50% cell extract) applications had a positive effect on germination and seedling development in lettuce. As a result; cyanobacterial extract has positive effects on seed germination and plant growth-development and it is possible to produce a commercial and ecological biostimulant by developing different extract concentrations. And this biostimulant may be used instead of the other ecologically harmful artificial fertilizer. By the way; the large amount money that spends for the artificial fertilizer will be brought to the economy of Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296794&r=all |
| By: | Guney, Osman; Sangun, Levent |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate consumer attitudes and behaviors towards table eggs in order to analyse the consumer profiles. It is aimed to create possible linkages between the obtained consumer groups and table eggs consumption frequencies. The data employed in this paper were taken from a face to face cross-sectional survey conducted with 547 individuals in the major cities (İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Trabzon, Adana, Van, and Gaziantep) of the seven regions of Turkey during the period February-May 2017. The answers of the survey questions were designed based on Likert-type scale in order to make the analysis. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Principal Component Analyse (PCA) with Varimax rotation and ordered probit regression methods by SPSS© 21 and STATA© 13 software’s. Results show that nutrition, taste, health and freshness are the main factors effecting consumers’ table egg consumption preferences. To detect the perceived differences among the consumers by creating clusters a Principal Component Analyse was performed and 5 consumer groups (suspicious and eco-sensitive, marketing consciousness, enthusiasts, food security sensitive and reluctant) with different characteristics were obtained on the preference for table eggs (KMO: .754; Bartlett's Test Sig: 0.000). Later these 5 egg consumer groups were associated with consumption frequencies by the ordered probit regression model. The analysis show that three of these consumer groups were found to have a significant relationship with the consumption frequencies. The marginal impacts were also calculated to show consumption position and structure of these consumer groups for each group of consumption frequency. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296779&r=all |
| By: | Demirbuk, Murat; Kizilaslan, Nuray |
| Abstract: | Effective organization of producers is one of the most important factors to increase agricultural production, to obtain quality products and to raise the living standards of farmers. In this research it was studied to determine the factors affecting membership of the Breeders Association, which was one of the most important components of the producer organization, by using structural equation modelling (SEM). The scope of the work was constituted of 3 Breeders Association members organized in the Sivas province of Turkey. A survey was conducted with 369 breeders to collect primary data.The questionnaires were formed of 5 likert type questions for testing SEM. Due to the nature of the SEM, it was based on the theory. First, a theoretical model was created. Factors affecting membership in the model were Economic, Professional, Union activities, Democracy and Organization Awareness and Social and Environmental factors. There were a total of29 variablesunder 5 factors. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) was performed for each factor separately. Then first level CFA and path analysis were conducted.The model was not initially confirmed by the data. Therefore, a new model was obtained by modifying the first one.Modifications were made after each analysis conducted. The confirmed model consisted of 16 variables. It was found that all of the identified factors were in the same direction and strong relationship with each other. It was determined that the ways drawn from union activity and social and environmental factors to membership were statistically significant and had a direct impact on membership.It is the first study using SEM on producer organization.It could be used by adapting in different geographical regions and cultures. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296791&r=all |
| By: | Aya, Achour (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Chafik , Omar (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | In this work, we explore the impact of Minimum wage increase in Morocco on a set of macroeconomic variables of interest for the decision maker. The adopted methodology has three elements: firstly, an analysis of the stylized facts relative to the minimum wage in Morocco is conducted, secondly, an estimate of the impact of its rise on the labor market is performed via a Bayesian VAR and finally, a simulation of these shocks to the rest of the economy is displayed through the MOPAM, the simulation model of Bank Al-Maghrib. The results indicate that the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage (Kaitz index) remains significantly high in Morocco and the wage distribution is skewed around the minimum wage, especially during the years marked by weak growth. Simulation of a 5% increase in minimum wage shows, moreover, that the latter would have a negative, albeit moderate, impact on the Moroccan economy. Nevertheless, the limited effects on the main macroeconomic variables, mitigated by the adverse implications for unemployment, are mainly due to the magnitude of the initial increase of 5%. Non-linear effects may accentuate these effects for larger increases. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Bayesian estimation; Vector Autoregression Models |
| JEL: | C30 C32 J01 |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2019_003&r=all |
| By: | LAHLOU, Kamal (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present the improvement made by Morocco in terms of capital account openness, the remaining levels to be achieved, the challenges that the economy should face and to analyze through a panel data model estimated for 47 emerging and developing countries the structural factors of foreign capital attractiveness. The analysis of the regulation shows that the capital account is totally open for short and long-term foreign investments and partly for foreign investment maid by Moroccan financial and non-financial firms. For individuals, the capital account remains restricted. The models results have shown that the most important determinants of capital inflows are GDP, the current account balance, price stability, and exchange rate stability. Thus, opening the capital account may be seen more as a necessary condition for allowing foreign capital to integrate the economy, but not sufficient to attract large flows. In terms of recommendations and based on the results of models and lessons from international experiences, it appears that, firstly, progress must be made in terms of sustainability of internal and external balances, but also at the level of structural reforms that will lead to productivity gains and the development of the business environment. For the capital account regulation, it would seem important to pay particular attention to the risks associated with portfolio investments that are almost completely liberalized for non-residents. In addition, the strategy of gradual liberalization, particularly for residents, must be maintained by basing decisions on the expected gains in terms of growth but also on the stability of macroeconomic balances. |
| Keywords: | capital control; capital account liberalization; capital flows drivers |
| JEL: | E44 F43 G20 |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2019_002&r=all |
| By: | Bennouna, Hicham (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); Chmielewski, Tomasz (Narodowy Bank Polski); Doukali, Mohamed (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy on firms’ liability structure depending on their specific characteristics (size, age, profit, and collateral) over the period 2010 to 2016 using firm-level data. Our results provide evidence that firms borrowing tend to decrease after a restrictive monetary policy, in line with the traditional interest rate channel. We confirm that small and medium firms are more significantly affected by tight monetary Policy conditions than large firms, suggesting the existence of the balance sheet channel in Morocco. |
| Keywords: | Corporate balance sheets; monetary policy transmission; panel data |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G20 |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2019_001&r=all |
| By: | Aya, Achour (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | Ce document de travail investigue le rôle des réserves de change dans le fonctionnement de l’économie marocaine à travers la proposition et l’estimation d’une version augmentée du modèle dynamique stochastique d’équilibre général (DSGE) séminal de Smets and Wouters en économie ouverte. A l’opposé des formes standards relevées dans la littérature, le DSGE proposé tente de combler l’écart entre les travaux sur les régimes de change et ceux sur la théorie de pricing des actifs financiers en testant l’effet du niveau des réserves de change sur la prime à terme des taux des bons du trésor. Les résultats obtenus en matière de qualité d’ajustement et de fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles du modèle démontrent l’existence d’une relation procyclique entre le niveau des réserves de change et le cycle économique au Maroc. Les effets de second tour que celles-ci sont amenées à exercer sur les variables réelles et que l’on peut traduire en un mécanisme d’amplification des chocs, accroissent la volatilité de l’économie marocaine et réduisent les marges de manœuvre de la politique monétaire. En termes d’implications économiques, l’occultation d’un tel mécanisme reviendrait à négliger une limite supplémentaire du régime de change fixe qui pourrait, lorsqu’elle n’est pas intégrée, biaiser la comparaison avec le régime de change flexible au Maroc. Enfin, une flexibilité plus accrue du régime de change au Maroc participerait à atténuer l’excès de volatilité qui résulte des fluctuations des réserves de change dans la mesure où le taux de change peut s’ajuster en continue pour absorber les différents chocs économiques. |
| Keywords: | DSGE; rigidités; estimation bayésienne; politique monétaire |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2019–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2019_004&r=all |