nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒12‒09
29 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The social contract: An analytical tool for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and beyond By Loewe, Markus; Trautner, Bernhard; Zintl, Tina
  2. Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: INVESTIGATION OF CONSUMER GUARANTEES AGAINST GEOGRAPHICALLY INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN TURKEY By Oral, Mukerrem; Kilic, Rukiye
  3. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TURKEY’S LIVESTOCK IMPORTS By Ari, Yakup; Toktas, Yilmas
  4. The Opportunity Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
  5. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: DEMOGRAFIC TRANSITION IN TURKEY, RURAL POPULATION AND ANALYSING OF DEMOGRAFIC PROJECTION OF 2080 By Dogan, Ozlem
  6. The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey: The Role of Socio-Psychological Factors By Hasanov, Eldar T.
  7. Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM MODEL By Essaten, Sara; Mekki, Abdelkader; Serghini, Mohammed
  8. The nexus of trade, employment and economic growth: evidence from Palestine By Abugamea, Gaber
  9. Restructuring Saudi Arabia’s Power Generation Sector: Model-Based Insights By Bertrand Rioux; Axel Pierru; Nader Alkathiri
  10. Toward Economic Prosperity Through Industrial Energy Productivity Improvement By Dongmei Chen; Nicholas Howarth; Alessandro Lanza; Padu Padmanabhan
  11. Investigating the Effect of Dividend Payments on the Economic Value Added of Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange By Zangeneh, Fatemeh; Kiani, Ali; Sabbaghian, Ali
  12. Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY OF LAKE URMIA By Saleh, Iraj; Meshkat, Reza; Yazdani, Saeed; Rafiee, Hamed
  13. Growth Through Diversification and Energy Efficiency: Energy Productivity in Saudi Arabia By Steven Fawkes; Marzio Galeotti; Nicholas Howarth; Moncef Krarti; Alessandro Lanza; Padu Padmanabhan
  14. The Impact of Lean Thinking on the Management of Supply Chain Processes (Case Study: Building Projects Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution in Iran, Golestan Province) By afsharniya, Mohammad
  15. Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity? By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Verme, Paolo
  16. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: ADOPTION OF PRESSURIZED IRRIGATION SYSTEMS AMONG MAIZE PRODUCING FARMERS IN ÇARŞAMBA DISTRICT-SAMSUN By Boz, Ismet; Kaynakei, Cevahir
  17. Public payroll expansion in Iraq: causes and consequences By Al-Mawlawi, Ali
  18. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: SUSTAINABLE LIVESTOCK FARMING IN TURKEY AND PINARHISAR GENE CENTER IMPLEMENTATION By Dogan, Mesut
  19. Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: STUDY THE VOLATILITY EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON AGRICULTURE'S SHARE OF GDP THE CASE OF EGYPT By Ahmed, Osama; Sallam, Walid
  20. Attainment and Gender Equality in Higher Education: Evidence from a Large Scale Expansion By Caner, Asena; Demirel, Merve; Okten, Cagla
  21. Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: ANALYSIS OF SWOT AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FARMER FIELD SCHOOLS (FFS)’S PROGRAMS ABOUT DEVELOPING IPM IN IRAN By Hassanpour, Behrooz
  22. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF ALGERIAN FOOD EXPORTS: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH By Matallah, Mohamed; Benmehaia, Mohamed
  23. Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF BREEDERS, BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATIONS AND MEMBER RELATIONS, A CASE STUDY OF SIVAS By Demirbuk, Murat; Kizilaslan, Nuray
  24. Global liquidity and impairment of local monetary policy By Salih Fendoğlu; Eda Gülşen; José-Luis Peydró
  25. Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy By Salih Fendo?lu; Eda Gül?en; José-Luis Peydró
  26. Illicit financial flows: The role of Al Qaeda and its affiliates in the Islamic Maghreb By Theodore Kouts
  27. Rebuilding Syria After The War: Lessons From The German Model (WWII). By Mansour, Sameh Shaaban
  28. Theoretical Framework for Industrial Electricity Consumption Revisited By Fakhri Hasanov
  29. التلوث البيئي في المنطقة العربية: سمات ومقترحات By Moustafa, Khaled

  1. By: Loewe, Markus; Trautner, Bernhard; Zintl, Tina
    Abstract: The social contract is a key concept in social science literature focusing on state-society relations. It refers to the "entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations towards each other" (Loewe & Zintl, forthcoming). The analysis of social contracts helps the understanding of: (i) why some societal groups are socially, politically or economically better off than others, (ii) why some revolt and demand a new social contract and, thus, (iii) why a country descends into violent conflict. In addition, the concept shows how foreign interventions and international co-operation may affect state-society relations by strengthening the position of the state or of specific societal groups. It illustrates that state fragility, displacement and migration can arise from social contracts becoming less inclusive. Nevertheless, the term "social contract" has so far been neither well defined nor operationalised - to the detriment of both research and of bi- and multilateral co-operation. Such a structured analytical approach to state-society relations is badly needed both in research and in politics, in particular but not exclusively for the analysis of MENA countries. This briefing paper sets the frame, suggesting a close analysis of (i) the scope of social contracts, (ii) their substance and (iii) their temporal dimension. After independence, MENA governments established a specific kind of social contract with citizens, mainly based on the redistribution of rents from natural resources, development aid and other forms of transfers. They provided subsidised food and energy, free public education and government jobs to citizens in compensation for the tacit recognition of political regimes' legitimacy despite a lack of political participation. But with growing populations and declining state revenues, some governments lost their ability to fulfil their duties and focused spending on strategically important social groups, increasingly tying resource provision to political acquiescence. The uprisings that took place in many Arab countries in 2011 can be seen as an expression of deep dissatisfaction with social contracts that no longer provided either political participation or substantial social benefits (at least for large parts of the population). After the uprisings, MENA countries developed in different directions. While Tunisia is a fair way towards more inclusive development and political participation, Morocco and Jordan are trying to restore some parts of the former social contract, providing for paternalistic distribution without substantial participation. In Egypt's emerging social contract, the government promises little more than individual and collective security, and that only under the condition of full political acquiescence. Libya, Yemen and Syria have fallen into civil wars with no countrywide new contract in sight, and Iraq has been struggling for one since 2003. In addition, flight and migration also affect the social contracts of neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. All MENA countries are designing, or will need to design, new social contracts in order to reduce the current instability and enable physical reconstruction. This briefing paper informs on the status of conceptual considerations of social contract renegotiation in MENA countries and its meaning for international co-operation with them.
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Oral, Mukerrem; Kilic, Rukiye
    Abstract: A considerable part of the Turkish population is subsistence from agriculture. Approximately 27% of national income is agricultural products. Agricultural products play an important role in exports as well as an important source of domestic trade. Turkey is an important country in terms of agricultural product potential due to its geographical position, climate, soil structure and riches from the past. This feature also highlights the potential of the country's rich geographical product. The geographical indications show the distinguishing features and the products which are identified with the region which is in the foreground. The purpose of this study is to measure the awareness of the consumers living in the province of Antalya on geographically labeled agricultural products and to determine the attitudes of consumers towards geographically labeled agricultural products. Within the scope of the study, awareness and attitude research was carried out on 52 agricultural products that have been registered in Turkey with geographically marked products. Data were gathered by interviewing with 630 consumers residing in the central districts of Antalya province via face-to-face survey method. The obtained data were analyzed with appropriate statistical methods. Dissemination of geographical marking in agricultural products, awareness raising, to be branded with geographically labeled agricultural products suggestions were made.
    Keywords: Agribusiness
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Ari, Yakup; Toktas, Yilmas
    Abstract: Turkey is a country with high young population rate. Also, after the internal conflicts that arose in neighboring countries, flocks of people have immigrated to Turkey. High population growth caused high food demand. Also, most of the population in Turkey is Muslim, and it is creating extra demand in the feast of sacrifice. During recent years, because of these reasons, the supply of meat could not meet the demand, and high demand increased the meat prices with high costs. The government of Turkey, therefore, started to import live animals to reduce meat prices. In this study, for the period 2005M01- 2018M01, the relationship between real effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate volatility and Turkey’s livestock imports was examined using bounds test, symmetric and timevarying symmetric causality tests. In this study, unit root analysis was performed using ADF and PP tests. The results of ADF and PP unit root tests indicated that the parameters were stationary at different levels and that none of the parameters was stationary at the 2nd level. According to bounds test, the F-statistic value calculated at a significant level of 5% and 10% was found less than bottom limits, the cointegration relation between the variables was not determined. As a result of the bounds test, it was concluded that there was no long-term relationship between the variables. According to the results of a Hacker-Hatemi-J causality test, a causality relationship was not found from volatility, reel effective exchange rate and industrial production index to Turkey’s livestock exports. Timer varying causality analysis confirmed this result for a significant part of the time interval. However, a causality relationship was determined for some periods from volatility, reel effective exchange rate and industrial production index to Turkey’s livestock exports. In this study,for the period 2005M01- 2018M01, the relationship between real effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate volatility and Turkey’s livestock imports was examined using bounds test, symmetric and time-varying symmetric causality tests.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2019–04
  4. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)
    Abstract: We estimate the opportunity cost for Iran due to the Islamic revolution and eight years’ war with Iraq (1978/79-1988). We apply the synthetic control method in order to compare Iran with a synthetic Iran and answer this counterfactual question. Our results show that, in total, an average Iranian has lost $34,660 (in constant 2010 US$) from 1978 to 1988. This loss is equivalent to 40% of income per capita, which an Iranian could reach at the absence of revolution and war.
    Keywords: synthetic control method, treatment effect, Iran, war, revolution
    JEL: C23 H56 F51 D74 Q34
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Dogan, Ozlem
    Abstract: Turkey has a total population of 82 million 3 thousand 882 in 2018. Rural population is 6 million 337 thousand 385 and 7.7% of our population. Contribution to the agricultural economy and rural population in Turkey's economy plays a primary role. Demographic projection is a method to help us prepare prudential economic and social policies. These projections provide useful predictions about, current population structure, it’s vocations and also helps us to determine if the current behaviour of the population keeps having the same vocation, what kind of population would appear in near future, population density, migrations, sex and age pattern of the population and sociocultural changes. Demographic Projections not only suggest that Turkey’s young and constantly growing population pattern is changing but it also shows that it's fertility rates and structures showing some changes as well. Changes through Low Death and Fertilty Rates from higher rates ,what we can define as “Demographic Change Process”, affects on population’s age structure as well. What we gathered from recent projection researchs indicates that there will be constant fall on young population levels, there will be rise in the number of population in working till 2040 but then there will be fall on the number in the same population group afterwards. Based on these informations, elderly population in Turkey constantly growing. These changes on both age and demographic structures makes impact in direct or indirect ways on both Social and Ekonomic live in Turkey. Demographic changes brought some positive outcomes(having a peak on population in working age level) along with the risks that Turkey never have been faced before(aging population). This situation requires taking measures for many sectors, especially the agricultural economy. Therefore, our study of the demographic transformation of Turkey, the rural population and population projections to 2080 are analyzed.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2019–04
  6. By: Hasanov, Eldar T.
    Abstract: What are the underlying causes of the spectacular rise of political Islam in Turkey? The factors behind the rise of Islamism in Turkey remain the subject of intense scholarly debate. There are interesting relationships between the rise of Islamism and preceding changes in population dynamics in Turkey. Rapid urbanization and large-scale migration of Kurds and other ethnic minorities from the east of the county to major cities in the west created a situation when Kemalist ideology, that was based on Turkish nationalism and secularism, could not continue to play its nation-building role anymore. The changes in demographics created a need for a social transformation that can bring people with different ethnic identities together based on a shared aspect of their identity. There was a need for a bond that can link members of different ethnic groups to one another and to the country as a whole. This need found its realization in Islamism because the main shared aspect of the identity of the majority of ethnic Turks and Kurds is their religion - Sunni Islam. Islamism offered a sense of a new superseding identity that helped to restrain existing Turkish, Kurdish and other ethnic identities and helped to reconcile and stabilize social relationships by reducing ethnic antagonism, tension and potential conflict. This new consolidating mechanism helped to create a state of a strong and substantial common ground between different ethnic groups concentrated in major metropolitan areas of Turkey. The rise of political Islam in Turkey was the political consequence of changing social preferences and motivation that resulted in inventing the reason for the social and political change, without recognizing and acknowledging the real underlying motives behind it.
    Date: 2018–10–25
  7. By: Essaten, Sara; Mekki, Abdelkader; Serghini, Mohammed
    Abstract: Following the agricultural policies already led in the Moroccan context, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP) launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereal’s supply. Nevertheless, little attention has been given to the demand side. This paper intends to perform a quantitative analysis of the demand of five main cereals: (Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice) through an econometric approach. In this respect, we opt for the linear version of the flexible model Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) procedure is employed to estimate regressions, by using the Eviews software as econometric tool. The data needed to estimate the demand system equations are annual series, covering the period from 1980 to 2015. Econometrically, the results of tests of stationarity, structural stability and low separability of preferences, the Durbin and Watson statistics, the Student's test values, as well as the signs of the calculated elasticities, show the respect of the conditions of the theoretical plausibility of nominal and real estimates. Our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2018–04
  8. By: Abugamea, Gaber
    Abstract: The economies, trade and employment in the Palestinian territories (PTs) in the Gaza Strip and West Bank have undergone numerous shocks and instabilities over the past four decades. Palestinian External trade experienced numerous difficulties and in particular Israel imposing for restriction on Palestinian trade with the neighboring countries and the rest of the world as a whole. Meanwhile, employment rates in PTs decreased sharply by Israeli restrictions which imposed on Palestinian labor movement into Israel since 1994 and intensified with the Palestinian uprising in 2000 year., This study uses the cointegration and Granger causality tests to examine both the long run and short run relationships among trade, employment and economic growth of Palestine for the time period 1968-2017 . The econometrics results based on vector error correction models (VECM) confirm the existence of long run relation between trade, employment and economic growth and show that both employment and GDP are main determinants of trade but not trade and GDP determinants of employment or trade and employment determinants of GDP. Causality tests confirm VECM results that changes on economic growth in the long run cause change in trade in the short run. By reconciling causality results with that of VECM, we conclude an existence of marginal causality runs from GDP to employment and from trade to employment.
    Keywords: Trade, Employment, Economic growth, Cointegration, Granger causality tests, Palestine
    JEL: E24 F14 O47
    Date: 2019–11–21
  9. By: Bertrand Rioux; Axel Pierru; Nader Alkathiri (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia plans to reform and privatize its power generation sector as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. To provide analytical insights, we developed a model that simulates the restructuring of the electricity market, along with reforming fuel prices to an energy equivalent of $3/MMBtu.
    Keywords: Capacity price, Economic modeling, Electricity market, Electricity market design, Energy demand, Energy price reform, Fuel prices, Fuel subsidies, Price manipulation, Power generation, Production capacity, Vision 2030
    Date: 2017–12
  10. By: Dongmei Chen; Nicholas Howarth; Alessandro Lanza; Padu Padmanabhan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: In this report, we explore the main trends and policies that relate to industrial energy productivity in China and Saudi Arabia, focusing on energy efficiency, structural economic reform, industrial upgrading and energy pricing. Our objective is to increase shared understanding on these issues as both countries deepen their engagement as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Climate Policy, Energy efficiency, Energy intensity, Energy pricing, Industrial energy productivity, Knowledge exchange, Vision 2030
    Date: 2018–02
  11. By: Zangeneh, Fatemeh; Kiani, Ali; Sabbaghian, Ali
    Abstract: The stock exchange, as one of the most important and critical economic centers, plays a significant role in sustainable economic development by attracting and properly directing the investment and liquidity of various groups of the society. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of dividend payments on the economic value added of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this research, the statistical population includes all 444 accepted companies in the stock exchange. By examining the financial statements, applying the necessary constraints and performing random sampling, 115 qualified companies were finally extracted. The Cochran formula method was used for sampling. In this study, after collecting the necessary information, the dividend and economic value added of the sample companies were calculated. The relationship between the study variables was measured using Pearson correlation coefficient. The tests and analyzes show that there is a positive correlation coefficient between the dividend and the dependent variable of economic value added in the capital market of Iran.
    Date: 2017–12–11
  12. By: Saleh, Iraj; Meshkat, Reza; Yazdani, Saeed; Rafiee, Hamed
    Abstract: Lake Urmia is the largest lake inside Iran, one of the most important salt lakes in the world and one of the saturated salt lakes in the world. It is similar to the Great Salt Lake in the United States and the Dead Seain Jordan. Having beautiful beaches and many tourist islands, a place with water sports such as swimming, boating and skiing became this lake to a beautiful place and tourist attraction. The purposeof this studyisestimating therecreational value ofLake Urmia. For estimating recreation function the contingent valuation method (single bounded dichotomous choice) was considered and a logitmodelwas usedtoestimate thewillingness to pay. Datawerecollectedusing questionnaire in Azerbaijan province. The results showed that recreational willingness to pay for each visit was 0.48 dollars annually. With regards to the numberof visitors from Lake Urmia,recreational value of thelakewasestimated at 756000 dollars in a year. Preservation of the lakecanplayan important rolein attracting domestic and foreign tourists. Considering sustainable development goals of the country, this lake could also create economic benefits, business expansion and employment in the region.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics
    Date: 2018–04
  13. By: Steven Fawkes; Marzio Galeotti; Nicholas Howarth; Moncef Krarti; Alessandro Lanza; Padu Padmanabhan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: With domestic energy demand in Saudi Arabia expected to potentially double by 2030, managing the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth will be very important for the Kingdom’s sustainable development. To assist in this task, this report recommends using energy productivity as an indicator and policy framework to help inform policymakers as to where and how the most value can be achieved from energy use.
    Keywords: Building Sector, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Energy Demand, Energy Efficiency, Energy Price Reform, Energy Productivity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG), Industrial Strategy, Oil Exports, Policy Development, Policy framework, Transportation, Vision 2030
    Date: 2017–11–24
  14. By: afsharniya, Mohammad
    Abstract: Present objective of the study the effects of pure thinking on the management of the supply chain housing construction projects Foundation in Gulistan province. Research methodology used in this study, descriptive and of solidarity. All statistical community managers and experts active construction projects in the time of the study can be - that their number is estimated at 370 people. The number of 189 people. For the sample was selected. In this study sampling method is random. Gathering information tool that it was standard questionnaires to confirm the validity of experts and professors expert. For reliability questionnaire Cronbach's and other related indicators used their results confirm that represents the reliability of the questionnaire. The questionnaire using factor analysis was confirmed by LISREL software. Research hypotheses were examined using multivariate regression. Research results showed that pure thinking on the management of the supply chain construction projects in the Gulistan province. It also intended to determine the value, making the uninterrupted pursuit of perfection and impact. Pure and fairly new management to reducing time, cost and waste and raising the quality of the pure of construction, and its interaction with supply chain management in order to achieve their objectives and principles.
    Date: 2018–01–23
  15. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Verme, Paolo
    Abstract: The increasing growth of forced displacement worldwide has led to the stronger interest of various stakeholders in measuring poverty among refugee populations. However, refugee data remain scarce, particularly in relation to the measurement of income, consumption, or expenditure. This paper offers a first attempt to measure poverty among refugees using cross-survey imputations and administrative and survey data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Jordan. Employing a small number of predictors currently available in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees registration system, the proposed methodology offers out-of-sample predicted poverty rates. These estimates are not statistically different from the actual poverty rates. The estimates are robust to different poverty lines, they are more accurate than those based on asset indexes or proxy means tests, and they perform well according to targeting indicators. They can also be obtained with relatively small samples. Despite these preliminary encouraging results, it is essential to replicate this experiment across countries using different data sets and welfare aggregates before validating the proposed method.
    Keywords: poverty imputation,Syrian refugees,household survey,missing data,Jordan
    JEL: C15 I32 O15
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Boz, Ismet; Kaynakei, Cevahir
    Abstract: Adoption of pressurized irrigation systems such as drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation influences productivity and sustainable use of water resources. Since Turkey isn't counted among water-rich countries, farmers need to use these irrigation systems. However, there are many factors associated with the adoption of agricultural innovations. This study investigates the factors influencing the adoption of pressurized irrigation technologies in Çarşamba District of Samsun Province. Participants of this study were a stratified sample of 350 farmers operated in different villages of Carşamba district. A well-structured questionnaire was administered and sought information about socioeconomic characteristicsand different farming practices applied by the participants. Data collection was completed in the May-September period of 2015. Descriptive statistics including frequencies, percentages, means and standard deviations were used to describe socioeconomic characteristics of respondents. Then farmers weredivided into two broad categories as adopters and non-adopters of pressurized irrigation systems. The independent sample t-test procedure was used to compare these two groups regarding their socioeconomic characteristics and farming practices. Results of this study showed that adopters of the pressurized irrigation system in the region use more credit for inputs, obtain a higher yield of maize per decare, and have higher level of off-farm income; however, they have smaller family size, fewer persons involved in agricultural activities, and lower number of parcels of agricultural land. Research results are expected to provide useful information in identifying the issues related to the adoption of innovations in agriculture, and in developing innovation adoption programs for rural communities.
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2019–04
  17. By: Al-Mawlawi, Ali
    Abstract: The public payroll in Iraq has grown unchecked since 2003, commensurate with the country’s vastly expanding oil wealth. With few alternative sources of government income, the state budget’s growth poses worrying questions about whether this ongoing trend can be sustained without risking economic ruin. Based on an analysis of publicly available reports and unpublished government documents, and informed by interviews with officials in Baghdad, this paper quantifies the extent of the expansion in spending on public sector salaries and sheds light on aspects of the state’s budgetary allocations that lack a significant degree of transparency. Notably, the paper focuses on spending trends within key ministries and the state-owned enterprises and offers recommendations on how spending could be curtailed through greater accountability and long-term investment in reform measures that could lead to a more robust approach to managing the country’s economy.
    JEL: E6 N0
    Date: 2019–10–01
  18. By: Dogan, Mesut
    Abstract: By it‟s natural and human features our country attracts attention. Despite hosting variety of economic activities, Turkey havent‟t succeeded determined level of livestock farming yet. By having the definition of „Insurance of Cultivation‟, livestock farming still far away from being self sufficient economic activity for Turkey with it‟s total number of animals, breed and productiveness. However, every single geographical parts of our country provide opportunity for different kind of livestock farming. Agricultural laws and legislations passed by parliament, unsufficient education level on the subject, exceed number of unmodern facilities, not having necessary health conditions for the livestocks at the facilities and unstaistfying marketing condutions can be counted as the reasons of not being on the targeted level of livestock activities. With its history that dates back a long time, our country holds origins of many different breed of animals. Many areas of our country determined as genetic centrals in order to achieve the goal of develop livestock activities. Unfortunately, results of many trials not only ended up with being below expectations but also gotten far away from being applicable. Using Black Pied Cow breed of Holstein race in application areas predominantly, would be important for both Pinarhisar county and for whole country. Although, considered as one of the underdeveloped district in Turkey in socioeconomic perspective, Pinarhisar also known as a place where the rural activites mainly take place. Economic problems that show themselves on the rural places cause rural poverty on the very same area. This rural poverty mainly based on not make use of the county‟s potential correctly. It‟s very important to determine the potential of livestock farming inside the current farming activity -which is the most important source of income of the county- in details and manifesting strategies to make use of this potential correctly. Hereby, rural areas of county can be earned back into the economy by sustainable livestock farming activities.
    Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019–04
  19. By: Ahmed, Osama; Sallam, Walid
    Abstract: This article aims to examine the long and short run relationship between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP. Links between series considered are assessed by co-integration analysis by using Johansen co-integration technique and ECM- GARCH. Results indicate a positive link in the short and long term between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP, as well as the cointegration between the pairs of series used also can be found; increases in agricultural exports have followed by increases in agriculture's share of GDP, Agriculture exports and agriculture’s share of GDP elasticities are being 0.62. Evidence of that past shocks and agricultural exports contribute to increase agriculture's share of GDP volatility is also found. To implement some of the policies that could be used to increase the export of agricultural products, it is relevant that the problems faced by farmers to export their products should be solved. The most important of these problems was the lack of commitment exporters’ of the forward contracts; thus such these contracts need to be controlled by the government and the application of fines for breach of the contracts.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–04
  20. By: Caner, Asena (TOBB University of Economy and Technology); Demirel, Merve (Bilkent University); Okten, Cagla (Bilkent University)
    Abstract: We examine the dramatic expansion in the Turkish higher education system during 2006-2008, which resulted in the establishment of 41 new public universities and a 60% increase in the number of available slots. Using the variation in the exposure intensity of expansion across cohorts and regions, we estimate the causal effect of the expansion on overall attainment and the gender gap in higher education. Before the expansion, women had lower higher education rates. The expansion increased the attainment rates of both men and women but failed to reduce the gender gap. Comparing the scale of expansion across fields of study, we observe that the largest growth in available slots was in social sciences and engineering. The expansion of slots in social sciences benefited men and women evenly, but the expansion in engineering benefited men more than women, thereby raising the gender gap.
    Keywords: higher education expansion, educational attainment, gender gap, Turkey
    JEL: I23 I24 I28
    Date: 2019–10
  21. By: Hassanpour, Behrooz
    Abstract: Integrated pest management with farmer field school approach (IPM/FFS) as an approach of the participatory extension, several years in order to protect the environment and control pests and plant diseases in in the country's agricultural sector is ongoing. The main objective of this study was to evaluate for extension programs field school on the promotion of knowledge, skills and attitude of farmers participating in the program compared with farmers participating in courses traditionally is teacher-centered. In the other study, to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats extension programs IPM/FFS as SWOT analysis were the views of experts and facilitators. Survey research is based on correlative-descriptive method with comparison approach. The study population consisted of two distinct groups of farmers. The first group of participants in courses FFS and the second group, participant’s extension is traditionally teacher-centered that number 97 of the first group and the second group of 98 were randomly selected. Information through questionnaires and interviews with farmers and facilitators of discussions with experts and participating in programs of IPM/FFS, were collected. Face validity, by experts and agronomists, and reliability with Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.79-0.91), were approved. The results showed that the indexes the knowledge, skills and attitude of farmers participating in extension programs IPM/FFS were more than teachercentered extension courses, and its differences in the level of one percent error (P=0.01) is significant. Analysis of SWOT related to the extension programs IPM/FFS showed that the best strategy for the development of these programs, is competitive strategy, that should be applied, all strengths and capabilities IPM/FFS’s programs to deal with the possible threats.
    Keywords: Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession
    Date: 2018–04
  22. By: Matallah, Mohamed; Benmehaia, Mohamed
    Abstract: In this paper, a gravity model approach was employed to analyze the major factors that influence Algerian food exports to the entire trading partners (98 countries) for the period 2001-2017. In accordance with the panel data analysis with WLS regression method, more consistent results were obtained. The results indicate that there is an increased propensity for food exports. Besides, the main factors to Algerian food exports are partner countries' growth, domestic demand and the common culture and border. All these factors affect the country's exports positively. Transportation costs, proxied by distance, have negative andsignificant effect on Algerian food exports. Results allow us to reveal the countryspecific effects through a ranking and shows that neighboring countries are in the top 10 list. Nevertheless, the existence of trade agreement has a significant negative effect which reflects the fact that trade gains from the trade agreements have been minimal for Algerian food exports.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2019–04
  23. By: Demirbuk, Murat; Kizilaslan, Nuray
    Abstract: Farmers‟ organization is an important tool for individual farmers to compete with big companies in agricultural sector and adapt changing market conditions. Small and medium size farmers have to organize to survive and improve income. Especially in developing countries, organization level is below the desired. The purpose of this research is to identify breeders‟ socio-economic status, their problem and relations with associations and association performance to fulfill their tasks within legal frame. The scope of the work was constituted of 3 Breeders Association members organized in the Sivas province of Turkey. These were Cattle, Sheep and Goat Breeders‟ Association and Associations of Beekeepers. A survey was conducted with 369 breeders to collect primary data. 94 cattle breeders, 168 sheep and goat breeders and 107 beekeepers. Non parametric tests usedto analyze the data, namely Chi square, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests. It was determined that member of different associations differed statistically in terms of income, marketing, participation in general assemblies, training and basic information sources, convincing factor to become member. However there was no difference in terms of taking part in management board and the idea of investing among members.It was found that 27.5% of the respondents did not know their associates‟ task and responsibilities.Government, unions and farmers must work jointly and each side take some actions for more effective farmer organization. It can be suggested that the associations have to do much more serious and intensive work on the subject of providing input, agricultural extension and especially the marketing organizations for their members. All activities and programs have to be designed by the associations according to member‟s availability, their workload and daily and seasonal agricultural calendar.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Institutional and Behavioral Economics
    Date: 2019–04
  24. By: Salih Fendoğlu; Eda Gülşen; José-Luis Peydró
    Abstract: We show that global liquidity limits the effectiveness of local monetary policy on credit markets. The mechanism is via a bank carry trade in international markets when local monetary policy tightens. For identification, we exploit global (VIX, U.S. monetary policy) shocks and loan-level data —the credit and international interbank registers— from a large emerging market, Turkey. Softer global liquidity conditions attenuate the pass-through of local monetary policy tightening on loan rates, especially for banks with more access to international wholesale markets. Effects are also important for other credit margins and for risk-taking, e.g. riskier borrowers in FX loans or defaults.
    Keywords: Global financial cycle; monetary policy; emerging markets; banks; carry trade
    JEL: G01 G15 G21 G28 F30
  25. By: Salih Fendo?lu; Eda Gül?en; José-Luis Peydró
    Abstract: We show that global liquidity limits the effectiveness of local monetary policy on credit markets. The mechanism is via a bank carry trade in international markets when local monetary policy tightens. For identification, we exploit global (VIX, U.S. monetary policy) shocks and loan-level data —the credit and international interbank registers— from a large emerging market, Turkey. Softer global liquidity conditions attenuate the pass-through of local monetary policy tightening on loan rates, especially for banks with more access to international wholesale markets. Effects are also important for other credit margins and for risk-taking, e.g. riskier borrowers in FX loans or defaults.
    Keywords: global financial cycle, monetary policy, emerging markets, banks, carry trade
    JEL: G01 G15 G21 G28 F30
    Date: 2019–12
  26. By: Theodore Kouts
    Abstract: Illicit financial flows (IFFs) in West Africa have long contributed to the region’s instability, partly due to their links to regional terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM has directly and indirectly participated in and perpetuated illicit financial flows in the region not only through violent means but also through diverse links with the local economy and society. AQIM and its regional affiliates have a profound influence on the political economy of the Sahel and the Maghreb, as well as greater West Africa, and it is important to understand the role played by AQIM in IFFs and the means by which this drives regional instability. This case study examines the political-economic context and the nature and scope of the mechanisms through which AQIM (and its affiliates) operate, with particular emphasis given to their interaction with the local economy and any resulting IFFs.
    Keywords: AQIM, development, financial exclusion, illicit financial flows (IFFs), illicit trade, kidnap for ransom, Mali, poverty, smuggling, terrorist financing, trafficking, West Africa
    JEL: D73 K42 O17 O55 Q01
    Date: 2019–12–03
  27. By: Mansour, Sameh Shaaban
    Abstract: While the Syrian war is entering its seventh year, the situation is getting worse day after day. It has drifted from civil war to a global conflict, with many challenges and obstacles. An interview and discussion about the rebuilding plans in Syria, also relevant data were extracted from eligible research. The Syrian economy and social life faced a considerable fall. The interviewee suggested that the Marshall Plan would be the proposed plan for the reconstruction of Syria.
    Date: 2018–06–12
  28. By: Fakhri Hasanov (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Policymakers should expect that the energy price reform in Saudi Arabia will reduce industrial electricity consumption. However, this reduction will be slight as the price effect is found to be very small. At the same time, policymakers should be aware that the increasing population aged 15-64, and all those over 15, will lead to an increase in industrial electricity consumption. Lastly, the estimations show that industrial electricity consumption will fully absorb shocks including policy interventions in less than a year.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Demography, Electricity consumption, Electricity demand, Equillibrium correction
    Date: 2019–11–24
  29. By: Moustafa, Khaled
    Abstract: تتميز المنطقة العربية عامة وشبه الجزيرة العربية خاصة بمناخ جاف وقائظ، ولكن لم يكن ذلك القيظ تاريخياً بالمستوى الذي نراه اليوم والذي يستدعي تشغيل مكيفات تبريد حتى في شهور الشتاء (كانون أول وكانون ثاني وشباط حسب التقويم الشمسي). وتختلط حالياً الفصول الأربعة وتتشابه الشهور في كثير من الأمصار، فلا الشتاء شتاءً ولا الربيع ربيعاً، وإنما تكاد تتحول جميعا إلى فصل واحد طويل متفاوت فقط من حيث شدة الحرارة ومدتها. وتلعب أساليب الحياة الحديثة في استغلال واستخدام وسائل الطاقة والإسراف والهدر دوراً سلبياً في بيئة هي بالأساس قاسية وتحتاج إلى إدارة ناجحة لمواردها وسبل الحفاظ عليها. وتفادياً لمخاطر بيئية أكبر، ينبغي على صناع القرار في المجال البيئي والعمراني اتخاذ تدابير وقائية وعلاجية سريعة وناجعة وإلا فلا مهرب من كارثة بيئية حقيقية على مستوى واسع لا تنفع عندها الحلول الآنية مهما كانت ناجعة وفعالة. في هذه المقالة المقتضبة سنلقي نظرة سريعة على بعض مظاهر التلوث البيئي وبعض المقترحات والمبادئ العامة للحد من مخاطره وتقليل الهدر والإسراف البيئي في البلاد العربية قدر المستطاع.
    Date: 2018–01–18

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