nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒11‒18
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Electricity Market Integration in the GCC and MENA: Imperatives and Challenges By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  2. Heterogeneity in Labor Income Profiles: Evidence from Turkey By Emrehan Aktug; Tolga Umut Kuzubas; Orhan Torul
  3. The Impact of a Failed Coup d’État on Happiness, Life Satisfaction, and Trust: The Case of the Plot in Turkey on July 15, 2016 By Akkemik, K. Ali; Çiçek, Gerçek; Yuji Horioka, Charles; Niimi, Yoko
  4. Country Study 5 By Boratav, Korkut
  5. Inclusiveness in Labor Market, Education, and Health Outcomes in Turkey Abstract: By Murat Guray Kirdar
  6. The Value of Integrating Saudi Arabia Into the Global Gas Market By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  7. Fostering Joint Leadership on Energy Productivity Transitions in Saudi Arabia and China By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  8. Country Study 9 By Abdel-Khalek, Gouda
  9. The Challenges in Measuring Global Oil Production By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  10. Arab Spring, Libyan Liberation and the Externally Imposed Democratic Revolution By Shephard, Karen; Hamoudi, Haider Ala
  11. Integrated Approaches to Decentralized Electricity Transitions By KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

  1. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Rising electricity demand and growing fiscal constraints have encouraged governments in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions to consider more cooperative approaches to delivering reliable and affordable electricity services. The development of an effective, integrated electricity market is expected to help achieve these objectives efficiently and sustainably.
    Keywords: Electricity demand, Electricity sector, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Electricity market integration, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Power systems, Renewable energy, Subsidies
    Date: 2018–07
  2. By: Emrehan Aktug; Tolga Umut Kuzubas; Orhan Torul
    Date: 2018–10
  3. By: Akkemik, K. Ali; Çiçek, Gerçek; Yuji Horioka, Charles; Niimi, Yoko
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the failed coup d’état attempt in Turkey on July 15, 2016, on people’s happiness, life satisfaction, and trust and finds that the plot had a significant negative effect on all three variables. This paper is the first to show that coups d’état can have a significant adverse effect on people’s well-being, as in the case of terrorist attacks.
    Keywords: happiness, well-being, trust, life satisfaction, coup d’état, Turkey, I31
    Date: 2019–11
  4. By: Boratav, Korkut
    Abstract: Turkey is not the shining example of successful adjustment that it is often made out to be. The stabilization and adjustment policies followed since 1980 have actually undermined the structure of its economic development without correcting its weaknesses. Indeed, taken with the post-1984 import liberalization drive, these policies have set in motion a gradual de-industrialization of the Turkish economy.It is true that, in terms of overall output, the economy escaped the worst of the depression of the early 1980s, suffering only a mild recession and then recovering slowly. But this was based mainly on an expansion of exports, which has probably reached its maximum potential levels, and on a further inflow of foreign capital. The whole programme was implemented under the 'benevolent' sponsorship of the major international institutions. Even so, per capita GNP regained its 1978 level only in 1984. More important, the policies inflicted permanent damage on the sources of future growth.Total investment fell by 18 per cent in real terms between 1977 and 1984: and much of the investment that did take place reflected the completion of infrastructure spending by the public sector, such as irrigation schemes. Private manufacturing investment fell by nearly 50 per cent at constant prices during the same period. Employment in manufacturing has fallen, at a time when the labour force has been growing rapidly.Turkey's adjustment policies have relied mainly on holding down wages and cuts in real public spending - it was these cuts that set off the plunge in private investment. But the private sector has not stepped in to take up the slack, as hoped.This monograph argues that policies have to be changed. Like other borrowing countries, Turkey's most urgent requirement is to reduce its external debt burden. A de facto repudiation of its debt emerges as the principal condition for a resumption of a sustainable growth pattern. If debt repudiation is not on the agenda, effective exchange controls should be re-imposed to prevent the recurrence of uncontrolled debt expansion. High real interest rates which favour the rentier classes and deter investment should be eliminated and effective indexation schemes introduced; the excessive depreciation of the Turkish lira should be stopped and exchange rate policy should aim at a gradual appreciation of the effective rate; and the state should resume its historical role as an active participant in, and planner of, economic development. But all this could be justified only on the basis of a far-reaching democratization of Turkish society.
    Keywords: International Development
  5. By: Murat Guray Kirdar
    Date: 2019–01
  6. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: The changing landscape in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets could make LNG imports a viable option for Saudi Arabia as the Kingdom works to diversify its power mix away from an increased reliance on burning oil to generate electricity. In recent years a number of factors have come together in the LNG sector to create more value for both consumers and producers. These factors include lower supply costs, increased market liquidity, and innovative solutions for market accessibility.
    Keywords: Electricity Demand, Electricty Generation, Gas Markets, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), LNG markets
    Date: 2019–03
  7. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This workshop explored specific opportunities where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and China can benefit from cooperation around efforts to improve industrial energy productivity. This is especially timely as both countries move into a closer phase of engagement under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plans.
    Keywords: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Energy efficiency, Energy mix, Energy productivity, Petrochemicals, Renewable energy, Renewable energy technologies, Vision 2030
    Date: 2018–07
  8. By: Abdel-Khalek, Gouda
    Abstract: Since joining the International Monetary Fund in 1945 as an original founding member, Egypt has signed four stabilization agreements with the Fund. These agreements were: a credit facility in May, 1962, which collapsed fairly rapidly; a stand-by arrangement in April 1977; an extended fund facility in July 1978; and the new stabilization package agreed in May, 1987, which is supported by a stand-by credit of SDR 250 million. Some of the most important items in the new programme are the following:A gradual devaluation-cum-unification of the exchange-rate structure, with the establishment of an official free market in foreign exchange; an increase in energy prices; an increase in purchase prices of agricultural commodities; action to reduce the budget deficit to 13 per cent of GDP; an increase in interest rates; and (undisclosed) limits on monetary expansion.This package must be viewed against a dismal background of a stagnant economy, rapidly-rising inflation (estimated unofficially at 30 per cent in mid-1987) and a budget deficit which the author of the following paper, Dr Abdel-Khalek, reports to have been 27 per cent of GDP in 1985-86 - and possibly even higher in 1986-87.The real purpose of this programme, which the IMF was persuaded to moderate considerably from its original demands, was to clear the way for a Paris Club rescheduling. Subsequently, about one-quarter of Egypt's medium and long-term debt of about USD40 billion has been rescheduled over ten years, including a five-year grace period.In the author's judgment, the new package may turn out to be self-defeating, and could well founder through failure to control the budget deficit. This failure would leave behind a legacy of a greatly depreciated currency and excessive interest rates. The author concludes that Egypt 'may soon find itself facing a crisis situation even more difficult than the one which led to the present package'.
    Keywords: International Development
  9. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Timely and accurate oil production data is critical for understanding both the short-term oil market and for global energy balances. In the absence of reliable official data from many key oil producing countries, oil market analysts rely on a range of independent estimates, including those from media and energy organizations and consultants. The OPEC Secretariat uses six of these organizations which it terms ‘secondary sources’: the International Energy Agency, the Energy Information Administration, Platts, Argus, Energy Intelligence and HIS-CERA. Other ‘third-party’ organizations that monitor oil production include, inter-alia, Bloomberg, Reuters, the Middle East Energy Survey (MEES) and Energy Aspects. Many of the current data providers, notably media organizations, tend to focus on month-end snapshots, leaving larger energy organizations and consulting firms to provide more accurate data on energy balances, which are revised over time.
    Keywords: Oil Data, Oil Production, Oil Exports, Tanker Tracking
    Date: 2019–09
  10. By: Shephard, Karen; Hamoudi, Haider Ala
    Abstract: 89 Denver University Law Review 699 (2012)Richard Albert wants to know what happened to our commitment to the democratic revolution, and I share his frustrations and his befuddlement. Indeed, I might phrase the question more broadly than he has, and ask precisely what has become of our commitment to democratic rule, however brought about. Contemporary events in the Arab world leave one more confused than ever as to America's understanding of its own role in supporting democratic orders. This is a matter that deserves more attention than it has been receiving. I consider Professor Albert's contribution important, and helpful in advancing the discussion in a positive direction. I only hope in these few pages to expound upon the ideas he has presented, and extend them into directions which he may not have anticipated, indeed which he might disclaim, but which must command greater consideration. In particular, I want to explore a central irony in our times concerning the externally imposed democratic revolution.
    Date: 2018–09–18
  11. By: KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Electricity sector reform is a key part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation agenda, as set out in the Saudi Vision 2030 goals, and of achieving its renewable energy targets. The electricity distribution sector in the Kingdom is expected to evolve, with implications for the ongoing affordability, reliability and sustainability of electricity services in the country. Lessons for the Saudi distribution sector can be drawn from international experience, including opportunities and challenges, to better inform policymakers and regulators in the Kingdom about possible evolutionary pathways for the industry.
    Keywords: Distributed energy resources, Electric utilities, Electricity market design, Electricity pricing, Future of electricity markets
    Date: 2019–02

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