nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒10‒28
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Analyzing the Perceptions of Egyptian Youth about the Arab Spring By Ali Fakih; Pascal L. Ghazalian
  2. The Impact of Internet on Economic Growth: Evidence from North Africa By Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
  3. Arab Republic of Egypt; Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt By International Monetary Fund
  4. Are Exchange Rate, Exports and Domestic Investment in Tunisia Cointegrated? A Comparison of ECM and ARDL Model By Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
  5. Tie among Domestic Investment, Total Consumption and External Debt: Lessons from Tunisia By Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
  6. The Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms in Morocco By Babacar Sarr; Mokhtar Benlamine; Zsuzsa Munkacsi
  7. Yes, we can! - Palestinian-Israeli Teachers in Jewish-Israeli Schools By Wurud Jayusi; Zvi Bekerman
  8. Female Labor in Jordan: A Systematic Approach to the Exclusion Puzzle By Semiray Kasoolu; Ricardo Hausmann; Tim O'Brien; Miguel Angel Santos
  9. Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17 By Majdi Debbich
  10. Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK By Samya Beidas-Strom; Marco Lorusso
  11. Turkiye Ihracatinin Urun ve Ulke Bazinda Yogunlasma Analizi By Ece Oral Cevirmez

  1. By: Ali Fakih; Pascal L. Ghazalian
    Abstract: Egyptian youth played a central role in the Arab Spring (AS) uprisings, yearning for changes in the political system and for better economic conditions. This paper investigates the perceptions of young Egyptians about the AS. The empirical analysis uses a bivariate ordered probit model to examine the factors influencing these perceptions through proxies that cover political, social, and economic conditions. The results reveal that social values and ideological characteristics matter more than the standard socio-economic attributes in understanding the perceptions of young Egyptians. They indicate that individuals with secularist, non-traditionalist, and gender equality inclinations formed more favourable perceptions about the AS. Also, they suggest that the AS has led to unfavourable perceived circumstances for the Arab Nationalism and pan-Islamism ideologies, and propitious perceived conditions for further connection with the global system. These findings signal that the AS may have set a path toward a significant transformation in the Egyptian society.
    Keywords: Arab Spring,Egypt,Youth,Perceptions,Social Change,Bivariate Ordered Probit,
    Date: 2019–10–15
  2. By: Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to treat the impact of the internet on growth for a sample in the case 4 economies of the North Africa over the period 1995-2017 using various techniques such as the ARDL bounds testing approach, Panel ARDL Model, OLS Fixed Effect, OLS Random Effect, FMOLS, 2 SLS, RLS, GLM, and GMM. Indeed, for the time series results, the ARDL highlights reported the presence of a negative impact of the internet on economic growth in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Also, the main results of the Panel data models confirm the fact that the internet exerts a significant negative impact on growth for North Africa as a whole. These economies are invited to orient the use of the internet towards productive ways in order to reap the benefits of the spread of the internet and proactively enhance the prosperity in this region as a whole.
    Keywords: Internet use, economic growth, North Africa
    JEL: O3 O35 O4 O47 O55 O57
    Date: 2019
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Egypt’s macroeconomic situation has improved significantly since 2016. Over the last three years, the authorities have carried out an ambitious home-grown reform program that aimed to correct large external and domestic imbalance and promote inclusive growth and job creation. Critical macroeconomic reforms implemented under the program have been successful in achieving macroeconomic stabilization, a recovery in growth and employment, and putting public debt on a clearly declining trajectory. Fiscal savings have been partly utilized to ease the burden of adjustment on the poor.
    Keywords: External sector;Unemployment;Employment;Economic conditions;Central banks;ISCR,CR,Proj,overall balance,percent of GDP,primary balance,finance gap
    Date: 2019–10–10
  4. By: Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate, exports, and domestic investment by adopting a comparative approach between the ECM and ARDL procedure for the case of the Tunisian economy during the period of study1966-2017. Our insights of Error Correction Model recorded that the Domestic Investment and Exports have a negative impact on Exchange Rate. In accordance with the highlights of the ARDL model. Understanding these controversial nexus seems to be vitality, especially, for this current critical situation of the Tunisian economy.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, Exports, Domestic investment, ECM, ARDL.
    JEL: E2 E22 F00 F13 F14 F31 F68
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Bakari, Sayef; Tiba, Sofien
    Abstract: This paper aimed at examining the tie between domestic investment, total consumption, and external debt in the case of Tunisia over the period 1970-2017. By applying the VECM, in the long-run, our findings recorded the fact that that external debt and domestic investment have a negative effect on total consumption. However, we found a significant negative impact of the total consumption and external debt on domestic investment. In the short run, we recorded that only total consumption and external debt cause domestic investment. Due to the importance of our insights, several lessons for Tunisia in terms of commitment towards the aims of the 14 January revolution and reforms should be undertaken.
    Keywords: Domestic investment, Total consumption, External debt, VECM, Tunisia.
    JEL: E21 E22 F34 O55
    Date: 2019–02
  6. By: Babacar Sarr; Mokhtar Benlamine; Zsuzsa Munkacsi
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects and sequencing of (LMRs) and product (PMRs) market reforms in Morocco. It finds that introducing LMRs and PMRs simultaneously would add about 2.5 percentage points (pp) of GDP growth and reduce unemployment by about 2.2 pp after five years. If sequencing is required, starting with PMRs would be more effective in boosting output, while starting with LMRs would reduce unemployment faster. Finally, increasing unemployment benefits would be more effective if this reform takes place after the implementation of LMRs and PMRs.
    Date: 2019–10–11
  7. By: Wurud Jayusi (Beit Berl Academic College & Mofet Institute); Zvi Bekerman (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
    Abstract: The goal of the study is to gain a better understanding of the experiences of Palestinian-Israeli minority teachers when teaching at majority state Hebrew secular schools in Israel. Specifically, the objective is to describe and analyze the role of the teachers? work-related experiences in shaping their sense of self-efficacy, job satisfaction, the acculturation process, and how all these affect their feelings regarding their potential role in helping break down stereotypes and misconceptions about the Palestinian-Israeli minority. Data were gathered from 15 interviewees, who described their experiences, feelings, and perspectives about their work. Findings indicate that Palestinian-Israeli teachers experience a strong sense of self-efficacy, satisfaction, and positive relationships with students, parents, and colleagues. Participants expressed the belief that their work helps reduce prejudice and increases mutual understanding among the groups in conflict, through successful acculturation, despite some difficulties.
    Keywords: Minority teachers, Palestinians, Israel, prejudice, acculturation
    JEL: I24 I28 I32
    Date: 2019–10
  8. By: Semiray Kasoolu (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Miguel Angel Santos (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: Women in Jordan are excluded from labor market opportunities at among the highest rates in the world. Previous efforts to explain this outcome have focused on specific, isolated aspects of the problem and have not exploited available datasets to test across causal explanations. We develop a comprehensive framework to analyze the drivers of low female employment rates in Jordan and systematically test their validity, using micro-level data from Employment and Unemployment Surveys (2008-2018) and the Jordanian Labor Market Panel Survey (2010-2016). We find that the nature of low female inclusion in Jordan’s labor market varies significantly with educational attainment, and identify evidence for different factors affecting different educational groups. Among women with high school education or less, we observe extremely low participation levels and find the strongest evidence for this phenomenon tracing to traditional social norms and poor public transportation. On the higher end of the education spectrum – university graduates and above – we find that the problem is not one of participation, but rather of unemployment, which we attribute to a small and undiversified private sector that is unable to accommodate women’s needs for work and work-family balance.
    Keywords: Skills & Human Capital
    Date: 2019–10
  9. By: Majdi Debbich
    Abstract: This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
    Date: 2019–10–11
  10. By: Samya Beidas-Strom; Marco Lorusso
    Abstract: We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
    Date: 2019–10–11
  11. By: Ece Oral Cevirmez
    Abstract: [TR] Ihracat yogunlasmasi, bir ulkenin mevcut durumda ihrac ettigi urunlerdeki veya ihracat yaptigi ulkelerdeki yogunlasma derecesini ifade etmektedir. Bir baska deyisle, bir ulkenin ihracatinin sinirli sayida sektore/ulkeye bagli olmasi seklinde tanimlanmaktadir. Bu calismada, ihracatta sektorel ve bolgesel yogunlasmanin ortaya konmasi amaclanmaktadir. Bu baglamda, TUIK tarafindan Harmonize Sisteme (6 basamakli) gore derlenen dis ticaret verilerinden yararlanilmistir. Hem urun hem ulke bazinda yogunlasma oranlari hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, urun yogunlasmasinin belli donemlerde arttigini, ulke yogunlasmasinin ise zaman icerisinde azaldigini gostermektedir.[EN] Export concentration refers to the degree of concentration in the products currently exported by a country or in the countries to which it exports. In other words, it is defined as a dependency of a country's exports on a limited number of sectors/countries. In this study, it is aimed to reveal sectoral and regional concentration in Turkeys' exports. In this context, foreign trade data compiled by TURKSTAT according to Harmonized System (6 digits) were used. Concentration rates were calculated based on product and partner countries. The findings indicate that product concentration increased in certain periods, while country concentration has decreased over time.
    Date: 2019

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