nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒09‒16
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. An Exploratory Look at a MENA Leadership Yardstick By Caroline Akhras
  2. Opinions and Expectations of Students of Economics in a Turkish University By TUGBA OZISIK
  3. Work Readiness of young graduates across different major specialisations :Case of United Arab Emirates By Priya Baguant; Roberta Fenech
  4. Current Practices and Issues of Land Readjustment in Turkey and the Requirements for Value-based Approach Adoption By Yesim Aliefendioglu; Rodrigue Bazame; Amani Uisso; Harun Tanrivermis
  5. Effective Public Health Twitter Messaging in a Diabetes Health Promotion Campaign By Hossam Alakhrass
  6. Social Media and its Role in the Success of “100 Millions' Health†Campaign in Egypt By May Mahfouz
  7. The Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Monetary Policy Transmission: The Case of Egypt By Marwa Elsherif
  8. Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Land Consolidation Projects in Turkey: A Case Study of Beyazaltn Village Land Consolidation Project in Eskiehir Province, Turkey By Harun Tanrivermis; Yesim Aliefendioglu
  9. The Real Status of Digital Learning as Perceived by Faulty Members in Jordan By Yousef Aljaraideh
  10. Exploring In-Game Advertising and Brand Recall By Naglaa Diaa Ramzy; Sireen Abdulhalim; Pansee Mashaly
  11. Land Values and Compensation Payments from the Viewpoint of Owners and Users Affected By Projects: Analysis of Selected Land and Water Development Projects in Turkey By Harun Tanrivermis; Yesim Aliefendioglu
  12. Trafficking in Persons as a Transnational Organised Crime: The Jordanian Efforts to Address this Crime By Muath Al-Zoubi
  13. A Sociocultural Approach to Learning to Teach with Technology: Reflections on Pre-service Teachers’ Field Experiences By Hatice Akkoc
  14. Profitabilité bancaire et risque de taux au Maroc By Zakaria Firano; Fatine Filali

  1. By: Caroline Akhras (Notre Dame University, Lebanon)
    Abstract: It is held that contemporary Western organizations would neither exist nor develop without leaders who efficiently and effectively manage. Researchers assert that in modern business enterprises, leadership requires the skill of working with and through people and other organizational resources to accomplish organizational goals. In addition, many business leadership studies posit that a key skill is that unique ability to work with the additionally challenging behavior of Millennials and Generation Z geared 24/7 towards accelerated development. Nonetheless, Drucker (2003) looking at modern organizations from a much broader perspective asserted that effective management in the post-industrial arena is probably the main resource of the developed world and the most needed resource in the developing world. This research paper explores perceptions of a leadership yardstick in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Ninety three participants drawn from different departments in business organizations were randomly selected as a sample. Two research questions were posed: (1) In your opinion, are business leaders operationally efficient in reaching goals in the SME where you work? (2) In your opinion, are business leaders effective in reaching goals in the SME where you work? The results found that Millennial and Generation Z business leadership in the MENA had a novel moral compass that networked, coordinated, cooperated and united employees into a communal context. Additional research is recommended to further explore and understand the modern MENA business leadership yardstick as it is the first worldwide horizontal generation that seems to be socially accountable.
    Keywords: Business Context, Leadership Yardstick, Millennials, Generation Z, Modern Morality, Active Investment, SME
    Date: 2019–04
    Abstract: With a population of more than 80 million, Turkey has a great number of young people wishing to get a university degree and have an edge in the competition for a job. However, to what extent they have a clear idea about the department they choose is a question mark. This study focuses on the opinions of 3rd grade university students in the Department of Economics at ?stanbul Kültür University. It aims to compare the motivational factors through which these students decided to study Economics with their current points of view about this field of study. It also analyzes students? career expectations and beliefs about job opportunities after graduation. In order to gather data, students were given questionnaires and a descriptive analysis was carried out. In addition, a focus group meeting with the students was organized. Common themes emerged from the transcriptions of the meeting were supported by students? actual sentences. Findings reveal that a surprising number of students have different ideas from the time they started studying Economics, both from positive to negative and negative to positive, which might suggest that during the critical phase of choosing a career path, most students are not fully aware of what is waiting for them. Moreover, almost two thirds of the students do not have high hopes of getting a decent job due to the nonstable economy and the problem of unemployment in the country.
    Keywords: Keywords: Higher Education, Student Opinions, Career Expectations.
    JEL: I29
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Priya Baguant (Higher Colleges of Technology); Roberta Fenech (Higher Colleges of Technology)
    Abstract: The employability of locals in the United Arab Emirates is a national priority and an integral part of Emiratisation which is an affirmative action policy of the United Arab Emirates Government that promotes preferential hiring status to Emiratis to safeguard national identity, economic sustainability, and political stability (Modarress, Ansari and Lockwood, 2013). The purpose of this research is to study the work readiness of Emirati graduating students across various specializations. The theoretical framework for this study is the four-factor model by Caballero, Walker and Fuller-Tyszkiewicz (2011). The four factors are personal work characteristics, organizational acumen, work competence and social intelligence. The research conducted so far on work readiness of graduates has been limited to particular disciplines (Walker, Storey, Costa, Leung, 2015; Dermott, 2007; Jollands, Jolly and Molyneaux, 2012; Haigh, Ell and Mackisack, 2013; Dermott and Ortiz, 2017). This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge as it does not focus on a single specialization and takes a broad exploratory look at work readiness across five specializations, namely business, information technology, health sciences, applied communication and engineering. 302 graduating Emirati students chosen randomly from various disciplines in different institutions participated in this quantitative research study by filling in a 60-item work readiness questionnaire. The main findings of this study is that specializations in tertiary education vary not only in terms of curriculum, technical knowledge, skills and abilities taught, but also in the preparation for employment which influences the perceptions of graduating students of their work readiness; graduating students in a health specialization perceiving to be the most work ready and graduating students in a business specialization perceiving to be the least work ready.
    Keywords: Work readiness; tertiary education; Emiratization; Work readiness scale.
    Date: 2019–07
  4. By: Yesim Aliefendioglu; Rodrigue Bazame; Amani Uisso; Harun Tanrivermis
    Abstract: Management of urban development processes is closely linked to urban land management and policy. Many tools such as zoning applications, zoning rights transfer, expropriation, and taxation can be applied together or separately in urban land management, and the success levels vary according to countries and settlements. In Turkey, as is the case in many other countries land readjustment is based on areal approach. According to this approach, zoning lots are created with zoning applications where up to 40% of the cadastral land area is deducted as development readjustment share and 10% share for public facilities under the Zoning Law No. 3194, and that this application has many shortcomings. Among these shortcomings, in general after the land readjustment (LR) area-based the increase in the value of building plots after the implementation is not at the same level, and in terms of wealth and value increasing. It was determined that an unfairness among owners. In another hand the value increase is very high in some of the cadastral parcels taken into a planning area, and much lower in some of them. This problem leads to objections by the right holders in a planning area and most of the plans, especially in big cities and coastal areas, are cancelled through the judicial process, and large delays in the completion of infrastructure services and construction activities cannot be prevented. Implementation of land readjustment works by providing equality on an area basis causes municipalities and other public institutions many problems in practice, and it is inevitable for citizens to experience unfairness caused by unfair distribution. It is foreseen that these problems can be eliminated by shifting from the area-based approach into value-based ones in zoning applications. In order to solve these problems, since the 80's, the necessity the adoption of land readjustment based on value approach has been emphasised in many policy documents, especially in development plans. In fact, despite many draft legislation having been prepared on this issue, none of these draft legislation prepared for different purposes have been passed and moved into the implementation stage. The Main advantages of the value-based land readjustment implementation are to cover the cost of implementation and to share with public authority the increment value of plots after the implementation. However, the value based approach requires the determination land values before and after the application, how much of the increased value increase will be allocated to the occupant, compensation for loss of rights and redistribution of zoning parcels principles in a clear and transparent manner. It also consists to develop efficient and productive use of zoning planning process, and especially the valuation methods and approaches to be fully integrated. In these circumstances, the theoretical basis of the application of value based LR and its implementation in selected countries were examined in the first step in the study. In a second step a survey-interview with Ankara Metropolitan and all district municipalities as well as other public institutions with zoning enforcement authority (such as the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning, Housing Development Administration, Privatisation Administration) based the current situation and the need to adopt value based approach in land readjustment, policy recommendations was conducted. This approach was helpful in comparing value-based implementation opportunities in the implementation of zoning from the technical, financial, valuation, justice and human resources aspects. Based on the results of the study, the outlines of the duties, authorities and responsibilities of the real estate valuation experts were also put forward from the aspects of realisation of appraisal studies of the parcels and cadastral parcels to be formed after the land readjustment in accordance with objective and international valuation standards, analysis of property values to facilitate application, conducting detection of parameters that can affect the value directly or indirectly and impact points rationally.
    Keywords: land readjustment approaches; Turkey; Urban land management; value increase and sharing; value-based approach
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2019–01–01
  5. By: Hossam Alakhrass (Imperial College London)
    Abstract: Local health departments have been challenged to find effective ways of conducting health promotion using social media. Because 40% of Twitter accounts in the Arab region originate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Twitter was chosen as the social media platform for the KSA Ministry of Health?s (MoH?s) ?Do Not Wait for Diabetes? (DNWD) health promotion campaign which began in November 2017. The existing Twitter account for the MoH?s National Diabetes Prevention and Control Program (NDPCP) was assigned to a doctoral student who is advised by a team with diabetes expertise that approves tweets before they are sent. Experiments with techniques to increase the number of ?impressions? (number of times the tweet is seen) and ?engagements? (the number of times an account engages with a tweet) were conducted. Twitter analytics is used to assess these techniques? efficacy. To promote diabetes-related events in particular geographic areas, tweets about these events can mention other local area accounts, such as for schools and local healthcare facilities. The NDPCP account has gained credibility and visibility through high-profile accounts with many followers retweeting the NDPCP tweets. Creating high-quality tweets that meet the information needs of users has also increased both impressions and engagements. Although the account continues to send approximately 2-3 tweets per day, the use of these techniques has increased impressions and engagements by over 100% monthly. Follow-up studies are planned to see if the DNWD Twitter campaign is associated with an increase in diabetes screenings at MoH healthcare facilities.
    Keywords: Diabetes, mobile health, Twitter, public health
    JEL: I10
    Date: 2019–06
  6. By: May Mahfouz (Ain Shams University Cairo, Egypt)
    Abstract: This research addresses the influence of social media with its ever-evolving techniques that serve social campaigns focusing on people as the central theme of its concern. Developers of social media techniques are always looking for and making the necessary changes through intensive and successive campaigns across various social media channels, to reach its full impact on users taking into consideration important marketing elements, such as culture and timing of said campaigns among other elements. Social media is a great way to communicate with the public. It contributes to building trust, elevates the spirits of society, enhances tolerance by considering emotions of individuals and it reinforces the feeling of belonging. It could positively affect the behavior and moral levels of humans. All that while working in an integrated framework of analysis that is run by governments, international institutions, civil society organizations and private sectors. These institutions factor in the public needs to better deliver their messages, there is no doubt that these types of social media campaigns are becoming a great deal of interest in different societies at different levels. As Egypt is aligning itself in recognizing the importance of evolution in social media and ultimately aim to change the negative reality and transform society to better reality; I will address in this study the role of social media in the success of “100 Millions’ Health†campaign that took place in Egypt. This campaign was able to gain great amount of popularity through social media networks and contributed to the convergence of Egyptian public opinion about its objectives.
    Keywords: Social Media, Value, Healthcare
    Date: 2019–07
  7. By: Marwa Elsherif (Helwan University and Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport)
    Abstract: Financial Inclusion is critical for the competitiveness, employment creation, and for raising incomes and reducing poverty. There is limited literature investigating the specific relationship between financial inclusion and monetary policy transmission. Central bank of Egypt (CBE) has launched three initiatives to support development and achievement of financial inclusion. They include an initiative to support financing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), another to support the tourism sector, in addition to a real estate financing initiative for medium- and low-income individuals. To explore the relationship between financial inclusion and monetary policy transmission in Egypt for the period of 2000 to 2017, it is proposed to use the principal component analysis (PCA) method to assign the weight of factors in financial inclusion index (by comprising selected indicators of financial development in a single index). And VECM approach to examine financial inclusion and monetary policy transmission, Granger Causality tests, and basic trend analyses, to explore empirically the relationship between financial inclusion indicators and monetary policy. The paper is arranged in sections. After the introduction, section II presents literature survey on links between financial inclusion and the goals of monetary policy, and presents stylized facts about financial inclusion in Egypt. Section III discusses the methodology of analysis. In section IV, results of econometric estimations are presented. Section V summarizes the paper with policy implications.
    Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Monetary Policy, VECM, Granger Causality Test
    JEL: E52 G18 C32
    Date: 2019–06
  8. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Yesim Aliefendioglu
    Abstract: Emphasis is placed on developing and implementing projects for the efficient use of land resources in developing countries due to high population growth and high growth targets. Especially in developing countries like Turkey, the agricultural sector still has an important place in the economy of the country due to criteria such as agricultural production, employment and foreign trade. The average enterprise land of agricultural operations, which are 3.1 million units in total, is around 6 hectares, and 64% of households are known to have holding lands assets that are smaller than 5 hectares. It has been determined that a total of 32.5 million parcels are in the form of agricultural land and that the agricultural land processed per household is composed of 11 parcels, 2 million hectares of land is out of production due to excessive fragmentation and agricultural land have more than 40 million shareholders. Due to the improper shape and forms of parcels increase machine power and labor utilization, as well as the cost of input, and consequently, the objective of efficient and productive use of land resources cannot be achieved. Land consolidation practices consist of addressing collectively he implementation are of the consolidation project, along with the reorganization of parcels based on road and irrigation networks, infrastructure services such as motorways, railways, airports, conservation areas, ecological corridors, transportation to pastures, arrangement of village settlements, irrigation water, drinking water and sewerage. The consolidation projects have positive economic contributions based on a comparison of the present value of the economic gains each year and one time economic gains to be achieved by such projects to the total costs of projects. However, significant developments have been achieved in multi-purpose land consolidation studies in Turkey as well as in developed countries. With multi-purpose land consolidation, it is possible to solve many ownership (shareholding), cadastre, environmental, and social quality at the local level. In this study, firstly the development and macro-effects of land consolidation activities were evaluated and economic, environmental and social effects of projects were evaluated within the framework of the Eskiehir Province, Beyazaltn Village Land Consolidation Project in the second phase and an economic benefit to cost analysis of the projects was made. The current use situation of the land and water resources and the post-project changes in the project area have been examined and the importance of water saving in irrigation areas due to the fact that highest water losses occur during irrigation, the importance of water saving in irrigation areas and the impacts of land consolidation on effective use of irrigation water and water saving and other benefits have been evaluated. The topics of participation of owners and other stakeholders in the planning stages of the projects; development of local measures for rural development; producing maps and data for the region; establishment of a parcel information system; evaluation of state land; cadastral renewal; solution of property problems; creation of large parcels; environmental solutions (such as creating ecological corridors and preserving historic buildings); rehabilitation of irrigation projects; preparation of land use plans; design and construction of in-field services; development and implementation of village settlement plans were examined based on the results of the field study. In principle, there is a requirement to determine the problems with a participatory approach with social survey reports before the projects of consolidation and inquire all related institutions for their opinions. As results, it has been found that current situation analysis work has not been done well in the process of deciding on the implementation of many projects in the last decade and the economic and social impacts expected from the projects have been neglected. In the project area analyzed in these conditions, the land assets and number of parcels of the households, land income and economic, social and environmental impact of the project were analyzed before and after the application and according to the result of benefit-cost analysis, economic contribution of the project was found to be high. In the impact assessment study, both the official institution records and the results of the survey study implemented in the project area were used, and the positive and negative economic, social and environmental impacts of project implementation were listed and suggestions for improvement of the consolidation policies based on problem analysis were put forward.
    Keywords: assessment of the effects of projects; land consolidation; Land Market; multi-purpose land consolidation policies; sellection of project area
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2019–01–01
  9. By: Yousef Aljaraideh (Jerash University/ Jordan)
    Abstract: This study aims to identify the real status of digital learning as perceived by faculty members in Jordan. Digital learning is a new term which imitates the development of contemporary education technology changes. The research uses qualitative method represented by a semi-structured interview. The sample of the study consists of (50) faculty members chosen from Jerash University. The findings of the study showed that there are set of obstacles prevent ideal integration of digital learning as perceived by faculty members at Jerash University. A big portion of faculty members perceived poor infrastructure, lack of time and lack of technological skills as the main barriers that prevent the implementation of digital learning in the learning and teaching process. Some recommendations were set such as holding training courses for faculty members in order to improve their technological skills.
    Keywords: digital learning, barriers, implementation, Jordan.
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Naglaa Diaa Ramzy (Helwan University); Sireen Abdulhalim (Future University in Egypt); Pansee Mashaly (Future University in Egypt)
    Abstract: Digital gaming is increasingly recognized as one of the most important entertainment sectors worldwide, turning it into a promising medium for advertisers. Games are extremely engaging, interactive and challenging, as a result, it attracted advertisers who are seeking the attention of the customers through a nontraditional medium to convey their advertising messages. Along with this growth in digital games, there are several important contextual factors to consider in the selection and placement of the advertising messages in digital games. The objective of this research was to explore the effect of in-game advertising on brand recall processing. The quantitative approach was employed and a survey was distributed on 201 respondents applied on FIFA game players in Egypt. The results showed that in-game advertising has an effect on brand recall. Additionally, the position of the advertisement and time of appearance appear to be the most significant factor in affecting brand recall.
    Keywords: In-Game Advertising - Brand Recall - Advergames- Product placement
    JEL: M30 M39 M37
    Date: 2019–07
  11. By: Harun Tanrivermis; Yesim Aliefendioglu
    Abstract: It is noteworthy that land valuation practices and compensation determination methods differ based on the purposes of land acquisition and especially owners have problems of perception regarding the concepts of “value” and “compensation” and that land value and compensation criteria deviate to a great extent. Methods used in valuation studies for land acquisition differ according to the types and kinds of real estates in many countries. Valuation criteria vary depending on the methods used in land acquisition and expropriation processes and it becomes necessary to classify the type of real estate in the first place as bare land and developed land in the valuation studies. In Turkey, under the Law on Expropriation No. 6830 dated 1956, it was firstly necessary to determine the expropriation values of land as per the methods of income and market value. Then, under the Expropriation Law dated 1983 and numbered 2942, it has been made legally obligatory to determine the value of parcels in the form of land lots based on “net income that the land can bring according to the position and conditions of the source and as it is used” and to conduct valuation procedures of parcels that have gained the quality of land lot based on the “non-special-purpose precedent transaction value before the expropriation date (comparative sales analysis method)”. Analysis and valuation methods and results of land acquisition and valuation studies for public and private projects are not generally understood, and valuation results that are appreciated according to the properties of land and the value expectations of the owners also deviate significantly. A comparative analysis of income value of lands, market values, values appraised by expert committees appointed by courts, if any, and the land values or compensation amounts which the owners would like to be paid (willingness-to-accept - WTA) using the results of 20 different projects analyzed in terms of parcel unit values was conducted by the real estate and asset valuation research group over last decade. According to the results of the field studies related to the selected case studies, it has been found that the land unit values that the owners want to be paid are generally higher than the land market and income values, and in these conditions, it is generally difficult to complete the land acquisition process in a short time by compromising with the land owners. Also, they preferred generally payment as cash compensation instead of in kind. According to the results of the selected sample project analyzes, the main reasons for the value expectation of the owners affected by the project to be higher than the estimated value of the land according to the income method include the expropriation values (or negative experiences) determined by courts in previous projects and some subjective factors. Factors such as the proximity of the parcels to village settlements, rivers, creeks and roads, land tenure and fertility of the land seem to be much more influential on the land value expectations of the owners. In many project areas, expropriation of parcels outside village settlements usually takes place and this can be interpreted as land prices should be relatively low. However, factors such as land availability and especially the lack of irrigated land in the project site and surrounding settlements, the presence of irrigated land generally in the expropriation area (except the irrigation facilities to be formed in the adjacent area after water retention) and the high population increase are among the reasons for the high value expectations of the owners. Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that criteria such as “social elements” and “expectation and tendencies of the owners” are not included in the legislation and should not be taken into consideration in practice, in consideration of the expropriation values of the expropriated land. The fact that land values that the land owners want to be paid for are higher than the market values of the income value and parcels that have gained land lot qualities, which are clearly defined in the legislation, are considered as the reasons for the increase in dissatisfaction levels of the land acquisition process of the affected owners and affect the adoption of investments at the local level negatively. There are frequent instances where owners and users of land, and even the local community as a whole, tend to not want investment projects in general due to such reasons as making traditional benefit-cost analysis instead of social benefit-cost analysis during the decision making of investment projects; the weakness in implementation of international standards in project land acquisition phase; and not focusing on the assessment and implementation of tools for assessing impacts after land acquisition and mitigating adverse impacts. In these conditions, it seems necessary that public and private institutions should ensure transparency of the process of land acquisition and expropriation, and compensation calculation and payment systems are removed from the national scale to achieve compliance with international approaches and standards.
    Keywords: comparison of income and market values; expropriation compensation; Land Values; satisfaction analysis; willingness-to-accept
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2019–01–01
  12. By: Muath Al-Zoubi (The University of Jordan)
    Abstract: Trafficking in persons is considered an illegal activity associated with transnational organised crimes. Interestingly, trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime is increasing quickly. This could be illustrated by the growing involvement of criminal organisations in trafficking in persons. Therefore, it is important to address this crime. This is important because trafficking in persons is a large-scale problem linked with international organised crimes. However, such addressing requires identifying a number of issues regarding trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime. These issues are the following: The first issue is clarifying the meaning of trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime. The second issue is analysing the transnational nature of the crime of trafficking in persons. The third issue is the criminal jurisdiction over trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime. The fourth issue is addressing trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime. The fifth issue is highlighting the international, regional, and national responses to trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime.Notably, addressing trafficking in persons as a transnational organised crime requires a holistic approach. This approach should include international, regional and national responses as well as states? cooperation and cooperation among international organisations. Such a holistic approach is significant because trafficking in persons is not limited to one country. Consequently, tackling trafficking in persons requires countries to unify their efforts and to make serious attempts in the fight against this crime. In this regard, it is to be noted that Jordan has made significant efforts of attempts to address the crime of trafficking in persons. Accordingly, the Jordanian example could be analysed and studied to determine what Jordan has done, how Jordan has done that and would that be done better in the future.
    Keywords: Trafficking in PersonsTransnational Organised Crimes
    Date: 2019–07
  13. By: Hatice Akkoc (Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey)
    Abstract: One cannot fully understand the nature of learning to teach through a cognitive approach. Teacher educators should support the development of attitudes, beliefs, and identities of pre-service teachers as well as their knowledge and skills related to teaching with technology. Therefore, this study embraces communities of practice framework which has been widely used in teacher education research to explain social aspects of learning to teach. The participants are fifteen senior pre-service mathematics teachers enrolled in a four-year teacher preparation program in a state university in Turkey. Pre-service teachers participated in "legitimate peripheral participation" activities in order to encourage them, as novice teachers, to take responsibility and interact with experienced teachers for successful technology integration. Participants conducted workshops on technology-enhanced mathematics teaching in two different upper-secondary schools. A total of ten mathematics teachers participated in the workshops. Data sources are videos of workshops conducted by pre-service teachers and focused group interviews with pre-service teachers. Content analysis of verbatim transcripts indicated important issues regarding the social and cultural aspects of technology integration. This presentation will propose implications for pre-service teacher education in general and mathematics teacher education in particular.
    Keywords: sociocultural approach, pre-service teacher education, field experience, communities of practice, technology integration
    Date: 2019–04
  14. By: Zakaria Firano (Université Mohammed V); Fatine Filali (Université Mohammed V)
    Abstract: Ce papier tente d'analyser les interactions entre la profitabilité bancaire et les évolutions macroéconomiques au Maroc. En plus des taux d'intérêt, sources de revenus des banques, les marges d'intérêt des banques marocaines sont significativement corrélées à la croissance économique non agricole, au coût du risque anticipé et à la taille bancaire. Le risque de taux d'intérêt dans le système bancaire marocain est évalué à travers la sensibilité des revenus d'intérêt bancaires à l'évolution des taux d'intérêt de court et long terme. Le modèle élaboré permet ainsi d'effectuer des tests de résistance macroéconomique (de sensibilité et de scenarii) permettant de mesurer la robustesse du système bancaire marocain quant aux fluctuations extrêmes et simultanées des taux d'intérêt et de la croissance économique non agricole. Les résultats des macros stress tests, relatifs aux données prudentielles de 2010, montrent que le ratio de solvabilité du système bancaire marocain demeure confortable (aux alentours de 9.9% soit un niveau supérieur à 8%, seuil fixé par le comité de Bale II et proche de 10% exigé par BAM) après un choc englobant une baisse de 50 points de base des taux de long terme, une hausse des taux de court terme de 100 points de base et une baisse de 4% du PIB non agricol réel. Les analysent permettent également d'identifier les banques marocaines les plus exposées au risque de taux d'intérêt et d'avoir les résultats selon les trois catégories de banques (grandes, moyennes et petites).
    Keywords: système bancaire,stabilité financière,risque de taux d'intérêt,profitabilité,stress test
    Date: 2019–09–01

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