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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "Although in the past decade the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has made important advances in terms of reducing extreme poverty and improving health, education and child survival indicators, progress has remained uneven across the region. Countries affected by conflicts and humanitarian situations (such as Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen) in particular have seen a reversal in child well-being indicators (UNICEF 2017a). In fact, child poverty in the region remains a critical concern. According to a recent study in 11 Arab countries, one in four children suffers from acute multidimensional poverty (LAS et al. 2017)". |
| Keywords: | Children, right, social protection, MENA, analysis, legal, framework, child, rights, perspective |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:26&r=all |
| By: | Hahn, Tina; Auktor, Georgeta Vidican |
| Abstract: | Similar to other countries in North Africa, Morocco’s economic model finds itself at a crossroads. The uprisings and subsequent revolutions in many Arab countries in the wake of the 2011 “Arab Spring” have shown that the social contract prevailing in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has ultimately failed. Although to varying degrees, the states of the region find themselves in need of redefining their relationships with society and developing long-term strategies to better meet the demands of their constituents. We argue that industrial policy can provide a valuable contribution to establishing a new and better social contract by addressing economic problems, such as job creation and growth, as well as by paving new ways of collaboration between government, business and non-business actors, and thus higher inclusion. This, we argue, can be achieved if key criteria related to embedded autonomy, specifically extensive cooperation across stakeholders, as well as monitoring and evaluation of outcomes are fulfilled. Our findings suggest that the policy-making process in Morocco is becoming systemic in nature, values dialogue with the private sector, and places a stronger focus on industrialisation through dynamic competitive advantage, which might set it apart from other countries in the region. However, some hurdles still need to be appropriately addressed, most particularly to satisfy the second criteria of monitoring and evaluation, which still exhibits major shortcomings, but also concerning deeper inclusion and a more systematic implementation. Yet, although challenges remain, Morocco has taken a promising direction towards addressing the weaknesses of previous policies. If the identified weaknesses are addressed, industrial policy might well prove itself as valuable contribution to a new social contract within the country. |
| Keywords: | Strukturwandel, wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Beschäftigung |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:312018&r=all |
| By: | Furness, Mark |
| Abstract: | Germany’s official aid to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries has more than doubled since 2011, ostensibly to support their responses to development challenges and humanitarian crises following the Arab uprisings. But the dramatic increases in aid have not been accompanied by a public strategy that sets out Germany’s objectives in the region, and the role of aid in conjunction with other policy tools in achieving them. Furthermore, a closer look at the figures reveals that most of the increased aid has been spent in just two areas: humanitarian aid in response to the Syrian crisis; and soft loans to Morocco for investing in renewable energy production. This raises some interesting questions for observers of German development cooperation. First, what strategic objectives does the German government have for its MENA aid, and have these objectives changed in response to the Arab uprisings? Second, does the practice of Germany’s aid spending actually address development and humanitarian challenges in the MENA region? And third, why has the German government not produced a clear strategy for its aid, given the political salience of the Arab uprisings and their aftermath? In order to address these questions, this paper develops some key insights from the historical institutionalist and aid effectiveness literature that explain strategic policymaking in complex decision-making systems. Two propositions are discussed: first, that Germany’s aid and foreign policy system has not been able to produce a clear strategy due to political differences and bureaucratic inertia; and second that the priorities that have been defined tend to favour German and European security interests rather than the development and humanitarian priorities of the region. An examination of the policy and practice dimensions reveals that, while efforts have been made to set priorities for development and humanitarian cooperation in response to the Arab uprisings, Germany’s MENA aid programme shows signs of policy incoherence and fragmentation. This is unlikely to change in the absence of a “whole-of-government” strategy for Germany’s engagement in the MENA. Furthermore, while there is little evidence of purposeful securitisation of aid, short-term stability has been privileged over support for unpredictable political change. A whole-of-government strategy based on the Sustainable Development Goals would balance German interests with the MENA region’s development priorities, and thus iron out the most problematic incoherencies. |
| Keywords: | Deutsche + Europäische + multilaterale Entwicklungspolitik |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:52018&r=all |
| By: | Amine Abderma (Université Chouaib Doukkali); Abderma Amine; Benesrighe Driss (Laboratoire des sciences de gestion - Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques, et sociales, Settat - UNIVERSITE HASSAN Ier) |
| Abstract: | This article is aimed to evaluate the maturity of project management processes longitudinally, it is the model developed by Mark Mullaly who has replied this specificity. We applied this owner model to different Moroccan high education institutions, especially after being approved during serious studies over 500 organizations across the world. This analysis concerned the different facets and standardized dimensions. This work represents a logical suite of our production (ABDERMA & BENESERIGHE, 2018) entitled : project management in Moroccan higher education : an explanatory approach according to Grant and Pennypacker scale (Grant & Pennypacker, 2006). And this, in a perspective of continuous monitoring of the sustainability of the various practices related to this field. |
| Abstract: | Dans le but d'évaluer la maturité des processus projet dans la durée-au niveau de l'enseignement supérieur marocain-c'est le modèle propriétaire développé par Mark Mullaly qui a répondu à cette spécificité, surtout après le fait d'être validé durant des études qui ont touché plus de 500 organisations à travers le monde. Cet article a pour objectif de faire sortir le niveau actuel de cette maturité de façon longitudinale. Cette analyse a concernée les différentes facettes et dimensions standardisées des processus projet. Ce travail représente une suite logique de notre production (ABDERMA & BENESERIGHE, 2018) intitulée : Le management de projet dans l'enseignement supérieur marocain : Une approche explicative selon l'échelle de Grant et Pennypacker (GRANT & PENNYPACKER, 2006). Et ce, dans une perspective de suivi continu de la durabilité des différentes pratiques liées à ce domaine. Mots-Clés : management public, enseignement supérieur, stratégie gouvernementale, management de projet, gouvernance universitaire. Abstract This article is aimed to evaluate the maturity of project management processes longitudinally, |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02171419&r=all |
| By: | El-Haddad, Amirah |
| Abstract: | The structural transformation of countries moves them towards more sophisticated, higher-value products. Network analysis, using the Product Space Methodology (PSM), guides countries towards leading export sectors. The identification process rests on two pillars: (1) available opportunities, that is, products in the product space that the country does not yet export which are more sophisticated than its current exports; and (2) the stock of a country’s accumulated productive knowledge and the technical capabilities that, through spillovers, enable it to produce slightly more sophisticated products. The PSM points to a tradeoff between capabilities and complexity. The methodology identifies very basic future products that match the two countries’ equally basic capabilities. Top products are simple animal products, cream and yogurt, modestly sophisticated plastics, metals and minerals such as salt and sulphur for Egypt; and slightly more sophisticated products such as containers and bobbins (plastics) and broom handles and wooden products for Tunisia, which is the more advanced of the two countries. A more interventionist approach steers the economy towards maximum sophistication, thus identifying highly complex manufactured metals, machinery, equipment, electronics and chemicals. Despite pushing for economic growth and diversification, these sectors push urban job creation and require high-skill workers, with the implication that low-skilled labour may be pushed into unemployment or into low-value informal jobs. A middle ground is a forward-looking strategy that takes sectors’ shares in world trade into account. This approach identifies medicaments in the chemicals sector; seats (e.g. car and aeroplane seats) in the “other highly manufactured” sector; inflated rubber tyres in the chemicals community (plastics and rubber); containers, bobbins and packages of plastics also in the plastics and rubber section; and articles of iron and steel in the metals sector for Egypt. The top product for Tunisia is furniture in the highly manufactured and special purpose goods community, followed by three products in plastics and rubber in the chemicals community, and finally three machinery sectors. |
| Keywords: | Strukturwandel, wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Beschäftigung |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:252018&r=all |
| By: | Carolina Bloch (IPC-IG); Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Imane Helmy (IPC-IG); Rafael Guerreiro Osorio (IPC-IG); Fábio Veras Soares (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "Social protection policies can help address the multifaceted nature of child poverty and improve childrens well-being, especially in the areas of education, health and nutrition. Providing adequate social protection to children is particularly relevant in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as multidimensional child poverty remains a major concern in the region. Moreover, a large share of the population of MENA will soon transition into their most productive age, clearing the way for a demographic dividend. This demographic transition presents a unique opportunity for economic growth in the region, due to its larger-than-usual share of working-age adults". (...) |
| Keywords: | Fiscal space, child-sensitive, social protection, MENA |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:36&r=all |
| By: | Carolina Bloch (IPC-IG); Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Imane Helmy (IPC-IG); Rafael Guerreiro Osorio (IPC-IG); Fábio Veras Soares (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "Child poverty remains an issue of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Although the region has made significant progress in reducing extreme poverty and improving health, education and child survival rates, progress has been uneven. Higher-income countries have advanced more than lower-middle-income ones, and those impacted by humanitarian conflicts have seen reversals in child well-being indicators". (...) |
| Keywords: | Executive Summary, Fiscal space, child-sensitive, social protection, MENA |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:35&r=all |
| By: | Emilio Chiofalo; Konstantin Poensgen; Yasmine Rockenfeller |
| Abstract: | This study investigates transition finance in Lebanon, an upper middle-income country in the MENA region transitioning from a significant adverse shock. Lebanon’s development path has been historically non-linear and, most recently, the Syrian conflict adversely affected the country’s development path. The Syrian conflict compounded pre-existing deficits and challenges in Lebanon, calling for increased international assistance.DAC donors increased official development assistance (ODA) to Lebanon to preserve stability and promote refugee protection. Donors also created special financing instruments such as the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF) to foster the provision of multilateral concessional financing to Lebanon. Official development finance in Lebanon is high in comparison to its peers, particularly on a per capita basis and for humanitarian assistance. The country also attracts high amounts of FDI and remittances. Overall, domestic credit dominates the financing landscape and public debt is high.DAC members and other donors can strengthen the humanitarian-development-peace nexus, address long-standing country needs to promote self-sufficiency, and re-design partnerships driven by mutual accountability and appropriate incentive structures. |
| Keywords: | Addis Ababa Action Agenda, debt sustainability, financing for sustainable development, global pubic goods, humanitarian assistance, humanitarian development peace nexus, Lebanon, refugees, SDGs, Syrian conflict, transition finance, UMICs |
| JEL: | H12 H41 H63 F34 F35 O2 |
| Date: | 2019–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaaa:61-en&r=all |
| By: | Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick); Garred, Jason (University of Ottawa); Stickland. Leanne (University of Warwick); Warrinnier, Nele (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the efficacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with substantial influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. We find that the stock returns of firms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed firms unconnected to these elites also benefit from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief. |
| JEL: | F51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1217&r=all |
| By: | Raquel Tebaldi (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is confronted by significant challenges resulting from multiple shocks and complex emergencies: countries in the region face various risks in terms of natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods and drought; violent conflicts, such as in Syria, pose unprecedented challenges related to the scale of human displacement; and the breakdown of service provision caused by conflict is leading to the increasing prevalence of malnutrition and communicable diseases in Yemen". (...) |
| Keywords: | Executive summary, building, Shock-Responsive, National, Social Protection, Systems, Middle East, North Africa, MENA |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:31&r=all |
| By: | Z. Eylem Gevrek; Pinar Kunt; Heinrich Ursprung |
| Abstract: | We exploit the 1997 school reform that increased compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years to investigate the causal effect of education on emigration intentions. Our IV estimates indicate that an additional year of schooling increases the probability of reporting the intention to emigrate by 24 percentage points. Moreover, we provide evidence that the identified effect of education on emigration intentions does not operate through financial dissatisfaction but rather through displeasure at a bleak political environment that better educated people are more keenly aware of. |
| Keywords: | education, migration, political discontent |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I31 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7710&r=all |
| By: | Mehri , N.; Messkoub, M.; Kunkel, S. |
| Abstract: | Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran's population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31 percent (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22 percent (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8 percent (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01 percent. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic support for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden. |
| Keywords: | Iran, population aging, fertility change, the speed of the population aging |
| Date: | 2019–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:118519&r=all |
| By: | Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi (Al-Buraimi University College – Sultanate of Oman Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique - The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co- integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Finding - The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. |
| Keywords: | Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. |
| JEL: | D1 D13 D19 E30 |
| Date: | 2019–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber175&r=all |
| By: | De Waal, Alex |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a succinct analysis of Sudan as a political marketplace. It assumes a working knowledge of the basic principles of the political marketplace framework (PMF). It does not offer a policy recommendation, but rather a framework for analyzing the Sudanese predicament so as to understand the implications of different courses of action. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101291&r=all |
| By: | Raquel Tebaldi (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is confronted by significant challenges resulting from multiple shocks and complex emergencies: countries in the region face various risks in terms of natural disasters, including earthquakes, floods and drought; violent conflicts, such as in Syria, pose unprecedented challenges related to the scale of human displacement; and the breakdown of service provision caused by conflict is leading to the increasing prevalence of malnutrition and communicable diseases in Yemen". (...) |
| Keywords: | Building, Shock-Responsive, National, Social Protection, Systems, Middle East and North Africa, MENA |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:30&r=all |
| By: | Firano, Zakaria; Filali adib, Fatine |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an early warning model that can predict vulnerabilities in the Moroccan banking system. This tool is part of a financial stability perspective because of its ability to anticipate banking weaknesses. Thus, and inspired by the practices of major central banks, notably those of the FED and the ECB, a logit model in panel data was developed on eight major Moroccan banks representing more than 90% of the banking system. This model relates the probability of distress and several macroeconomic and financial variables likely to anticipate banking difficulties. The results show that the bank leverage ratio and the output gap are the main determinants of banking difficulties in Morocco. Indeed, the analysis of the marginal effects shows that a 1% variation of these two determinants impacts the probability of distress of Moroccan banks by almost 20% and 14% respectively. In parallel, the examination of Type 1 and Type 2 errors indicates that the predictive quality of the chosen model and its ability to send good signals are widely acceptable |
| Keywords: | Probability of distress, bank fragility, systemic risk, early warning system. |
| JEL: | G2 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95165&r=all |
| By: | harraou, Khalid |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted in particular to examining the relationship between the money market rate and bank rates through pass-through analysis and also to studying the presence of asymmetry in the transmission dynamics of the policy. at the level of the Moroccan banking system. For this, an Error Correction Model is used to measure the degree of responsiveness of bank rates following changes in monetary conditions. |
| Keywords: | Pass-through, monetary policy, transmission channels, lending rates, credit rates, interbank rate, Error Correction Model (ERM) |
| JEL: | E43 |
| Date: | 2019–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94968&r=all |