nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒07‒22
nine papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The making of Turkey's 2018-2019 economic crisis By Akcay, Ümit; Güngen, Ali Riza
  2. Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey By Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih
  3. Growth Spillovers in the MENA Region By Merve Aksoylar Baysoy; Sumru Altug
  4. Price interactions between wild and farmed products: Turkish sea bass and sea bream markets By Basak Bayramoglu
  5. Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey By Plamen K Iossifov; Xuan Fei
  6. Trajectories of Knowledge Economy in SSA and MENA countries By Simplice A. Asongu; Antonio R. Andrés
  7. The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017 By Berk, Istemi; Çam , Eren
  8. Is the relationship between inflation and financial development symmetric or asymmetric? new evidence from Sudan based on NARDL By Ismail, Yusra; Masih, Mansur
  9. Orientation à l'innovation, intégration de la chaîne logistique et avantage concurrentiel. Cas des entreprises industielles tunisiennes By Rim Ghariani; Boujelbene Younes

  1. By: Akcay, Ümit; Güngen, Ali Riza
    Abstract: Turkish economic growth depends on capital inflows and access to cheap credit sources. Once the global financial conditions tightened in 2018, Turkey was among the emerging markets that suffered the most. This article analyses the making of Turkey's economic crisis in 2018-2019, while elaborating the phases of Turkish financialisation. It locates the slow-motion drift of Turkish economy within the context of dependent financialisation and argues that a long-term account is needed to grasp the economic turmoil of recent years.
    Keywords: Turkey,Dependent Financialisation,Economic Crises,Crisis Management
    JEL: E44 E52 E6 F31 G01
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih
    Abstract: Decomposing time series data into trend and cyclical components is among the top priorities for policy maker institutions. Comparing with the unrestricted Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and Hodrick-Prescott filter, we implement a restricted Beveridge-Nelson filter developed by Kamber et. al. (2018) which limits the volatility of trend component. Utilizing the quarterly real GDP series and monthly real exchange rate data for Turkey, we find that Beveridge-Nelson filter provides more persistent and larger cyclical values than Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Taking the output gap estimates of Central Bank of Turkey as a benchmark, our results indicate that Beveridge-Nelson filter method yields more sensible results. We also develop a measure to make an assessment on the end-point bias. Our results show that restricted Beveridge-Nelson filter performs better than Hodrick-Prescott filter regarding the magnitude of end point bias.
    Keywords: Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, Beveridge-Nelson filter, Hodrick-Prescott filter, output gap, real exchange rate cycles, signal-to-noise ratio.
    JEL: C22 E17 E32 F31
    Date: 2019–06–25
  3. By: Merve Aksoylar Baysoy (Koç University); Sumru Altug (American University of Beirut)
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the role of spillovers in economic growth for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by accounting for spatial effects. Such spatial effects in growth for the MENA countries may arise on the basis of geography, bilateral trade or institutional similarities. We explicitly model such interactions using a spatial econometric approach and ask how much they are likely to matter for growth externalities and spillover effects. To detect spatial dependence in growth rates, we make of the spatial lag model as well as the model with spatially autocorrelated error terms. Using results from the spatial econometrics literature, we test for the existence and type of spatial dependence. Our results indicate that the economic growth of a MENA country is positively affected by the economic growth of countries that are geographically close and that have similar institutional characteristics rather than through the growth of its trade partners.
    Keywords: Growth regressions, spillover effects, spatial econometrics, MENA countries
    JEL: O40 R11 F43
    Date: 2019–07
  4. By: Basak Bayramoglu (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: We investigate empirically market interactions in the Turkish wild and farmed sea bass and sea bream markets. For gilthead sea bream and European sea bass, we conduct a Granger causality test between the prices of the wild and farmed products, based on the estimation of a vector autoregressive model. Our data set consists of annual fish prices from 1996 to 2016. Our empirical results show that the wild and farmed sea bass are neither substitutes nor complements : the markets for each product are independent. However, in the case of sea bream, the price variations for farmed sea bream have a causal impact on the price of wild sea bream. Moreover, the price of wild sea bream Granger-causes the price variation of farmed sea bream. Thus, the wild and farmed sea bream markets are integrated.
    Abstract: Nous conduisons une analyse empirique pour étudier les interactions de prix sur les marchés de bar et de dorade sauvage et cultivé en Turquie. Pour le bar et la dorade, nous effectuons un test de causalité de Granger entre les prix des produits sauvages et des produits d'élevage, basé sur l'estimation d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif. Notre base de données comprend les prix annuels des produits de 1996 à 2016. Nos résultats empiriques montrent que le bar sauvage et le bar d'élevage ne sont ni des substituts ni des compléments: les marchés pour chaque produit sont indépendants. Cependant, dans le cas de la dorade, les variations de prix de la dorade d'élevage ont un impact causal sur le prix de la dorade sauvage. En outre, le prix de la dorade sauvage a un impact causal sur la variation du prix de la dorade d'élevage. Ainsi, les marchés de dorade sauvage et d'élevage sont intégrés.
    Keywords: farmed fish,wild fish,market interactions,Turkey,sea bass,sea bream,market,seabream,poisson d'élevage,poisson sauvage,marché,bar,dorade,turquie
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Plamen K Iossifov; Xuan Fei
    Abstract: There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has important policy implications for the role of exchange rates in supporting growth and restoring external balance. In this paper, we use Turkey---a large and open emerging market economy that has experienced sizable swings of the real effective exchange rate---as a case study to test competing hypotheses. Our results lend support to the finding in existing cross-country studies that the real effective exchange rate remains an important determinant of trade flows. But, its effect is not symmetric in secular periods of appreciation and depreciation and is, oftentimes, dwarfed by the impact on trade flows of the income growth differential between trade partners.
    Date: 2019–06–28
  6. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Antonio R. Andrés (
    Abstract: In the first critical assessment of knowledge economy dynamic paths in Africa and the Middle East, but for a few exceptions, we find overwhelming support for diminishing cross-country disparities in knowledge-based economy dimensions. The paper employs all the four components of the World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index (KEI): economic incentives, innovation, education, and information infrastructure. The main finding suggests that sub-Saharan African (SSA) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries with low levels of KE dynamics and catching-up their counterparts of higher KE levels. We provide the speeds of integration and time necessary to achieve full (100%) integration. Policy implications are also discussed.
    Keywords: Knowledge economy; Principal component analysis; Panel data; Convergence; Development
    JEL: F42 O10 O38 O57 P00
    Date: 2019–01
  7. By: Berk, Istemi (Dokuz Eylul University); Çam , Eren (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))
    Abstract: The global crude oil market has gone through two important phases over the recent years. The first one was the price collapse that started in the third quarter of 2014 and continued until mid-2016. The second phase occurred in late 2016, after major producers within and outside OPEC agreed to cut production in order to adjust the ongoing fall in oil prices, which is now known as the OPEC+ agreement. This paper analyzes the effects of these recent developments on the market structure and on the behavior of major producers in the market. To this end, we develop a partial equilibrium model with a spatial structure for the global crude oil market and simulate the market for the period between 2013 and 2017 under oligopolistic, cartel and perfectly competitive market structure setups. The simulation results reveal that, although the oligopolistic market structures fit overall well to the realized market outcomes, they are not successful at explaining the low prices during 2015 and 2016, which instead are closer to estimated competitive levels. Moreover, we further suggest that from 2014 onward, the market power potential of major suppliers has shrunk considerably, supporting the view that the market has become more competitive. We also analyze the Saudi Arabia- and Russia-led OPEC+ agreement, and find that planned production cuts in 2017, particularly of Saudi Arabia (486 thousand barrels/day) and Russia (300 thousand barrels/day), were below the levels of estimated non-competitive market structure setups. This explains why the oil prices did not recover to pre-2014 levels although a temporary adjustment was observed in 2017.
    Keywords: Crude Oil Market Structure; 2014 Oil Price Decline; OPEC+ Agreement; Market Simulation Model; DROPS
    JEL: C63 D43 Q31 Q41
    Date: 2019–07–15
  8. By: Ismail, Yusra; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: This study highlights the impact of inflation on financial development, using NARDL approach and the annual data available allow us to cover a period of 56 years. Sudan is used as a case study. The relationship between inflation and financial development remains an important issue in both theoretical and empirical literature because of its important implications on macroeconomic stabilization policies. The importance of the study comes from examining a developing country which is witnessing an economic deterioration generally and a hyper-inflation crisis that marked it as the second highest inflation rate in Africa in the 1st quarter of 2019. We test whether the relationship between the variables is symmetrical or asymmetrical in both short run and long run. Applying the autoregressive distributed lags model (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL approaches proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Shin et al. (2014) respectively, results confirm the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between inflation and financial development. Our findings tend to suggest that the long run relationship is symmetrical, while evidence is in support of asymmetrical short- run trade-off between the variables. Two main contributions are added to the previous literature. First, it applies a recent methodology that is Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL). Secondly it presents a new evidence from one of the high indebted poor countries-HIPC (Sudan) using data from 1961 to 2017.
    Keywords: Inflation, financial development, non-linear ARDL
    JEL: C58 E44
    Date: 2019–06–24
  9. By: Rim Ghariani (FSEGS Sfas); Boujelbene Younes (ISAS - ISAS Sfax UREA)
    Abstract: Répondant à la tendance de la mondialisation industrielle et aux progrès de la technologie de l'information ces dernières années, de nombreux pays ont tenté d'améliorer la productivité et la compétitivité industrielle grâce à des activités innovantes de recherche et de développement pour atteindre un avantage concurrentiel. Cet article examine les relations entre l'orientation à l'innovation, l'intégration de la chaîne logistique (intégration avec les fournisseurs, intégration avec les clients, intégration interne) et l'avantage concurrentielle en utilisant les données d'une enquête menée auprès de 60 entreprises. Nous utilisons l'analyse de la régression linéaire multiple pour vérifier les hypothèses de recherches et pour tester l'effet modérateur de l'intégration de la chaîne logistique sur la relation entre l'orientation à l'innovation et l'avantage concurrentielle. Après avoir rappelé les principes fondamentaux de l'intégration de la chaîne logistique, de l'orientation à l'innovation et de l'avantage concurrentiel, un modèle conceptuel a été proposé et testé. Les résultats permettent de dériver des recommandations de nature managériale. Mots clés: Intégration de la chaîne logistique, orientation à l'innovation, avantage concurrentiel.
    Date: 2019

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