nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2019‒05‒27
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Effect of Education on Health: Evidence from the 1997 Compulsory Schooling Reform in Turkey By Baltagi, Badi H.; Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso; Karatas, Haci M.
  2. Territorialized forms of production in Morocco: provisional assessment for an own model in gestation By Oumhani Eddelani; Najiba El Amrani El Idrissi; Salvatore Monni
  3. Mathematical Analysis of Impact of Oil, Gold and Currency on Tehran Stock Exchange By Abolfazl Biglar Beigi
  4. Jordan; Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, an Extension of the Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan By International Monetary Fund
  5. Impact of early retirement incentives on labor supply of young men and women : evidence from Turkey By Gunes Asik
  6. Public Debt Sustainability Assessment: A Stochastic Approach for Tunisia By Ben Hassine Khalladi, Hela
  7. The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries By Anda David; Mohamed Ali Marouani; Charbel Nahas; Björn Nilsson
  8. Integrated Investment Appraisal of a 400 Bed Hospital Project in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq Using FAST Modeling Standards By Lafaw Dara Bayiz

  1. By: Baltagi, Badi H. (Syracuse University); Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso (Syracuse University); Karatas, Haci M. (Giresun University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between education and health outcomes using a natural experiment in Turkey. The compulsory schooling increased from 5 to 8 years in 1997. This increase was accompanied by a massive construction of classrooms and recruitment of teachers in a differential rate across regions. As in previous studies, we confirm that the 1997 reform substantially increased education in Turkey. Using the number of new middle school class openings per 1000 children as an intensity measure for the 1997 reform, we find that, on average, one additional middle school class increases the probability of completion of 8 years or more of schooling by about 7.1 percentage points. We use this exogenous increase in the educational attainment to investigate the impact of education on body mass index, obesity, smoking behavior, and self-rated health, as well as the effect of maternal education on the infant's well-being. Using ordinary least squares, we find that there is a statistically significant favorable effect of education on health outcomes and behavior. However, this relationship becomes insignificant when we account for the endogeneity of education and health by instrumenting education with exogenous variations generated by the 1997 reform and the accompanying middle school class openings. The insignificance of the health effect may be due to lack of statistical power in our data, or to the fact that this policy affects only relatively low levels of schooling and the health effects of education need to be examined at higher levels of schooling.
    Keywords: health, education, compulsory schooling, body mass index, obesity, smoking, selfrated health, maternal education, infant's well-being, Turkey
    JEL: C26 I12 I21 I28
    Date: 2019–05
  2. By: Oumhani Eddelani (Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University); Najiba El Amrani El Idrissi (Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University); Salvatore Monni (Roma Tre University)
    Abstract: With the current movement of "glocalization" imposed by openness to the global sphere and the necessary anchoring to the local, the productive systems-from here and elsewhere-can no longer be non-territorial or autarkic. As much openness opens up the prospect of competitiveness, as much the local territory ensures a kind of "rescue net" and refuge in the event of global crises that have become frequent. Whether it is the social movement paradigm or the local production system canvas "glocalization" is justified by the wealth potential that territories of any nation seeking its competitiveness on the international scene conceal. To identify, grasp, understand and value such a territorial resource, the diagnosis of the existing is necessary. Socio-spatial disparities are at the heart of the problems of regional development confronted with the double malaise of poverty and environmental degradation. With the certainty that wealth is created within companies and that they are the key players in territorial development, the analysis of the spatial anatomy of productive systems provides information on the symbiosis between the productive and the spatial. Without claiming to reproduce the evolution of productive systems and their spatial expressions in its completeness, this paper proposes to explore the major territorialized forms that the 7 productive system in Morocco has taken from independence to our day. It's all about finding to characterize the specificities of Morocco in this matter by launching a sort of a provisional assessment. The main question here is to approach a kind of model in gestation that Morocco can create for the rest of Africa at this spatial / productive level.
    Keywords: LPS,Productive system,territorialized forms of production,glocalization,integrated industrial platform,clusters
    Date: 2019–03–30
  3. By: Abolfazl Biglar Beigi (IASBS - Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences [Zanjan])
    Abstract: The use of economic factors has led to a lot of research on the behavior of stock markets. These economic factors can be evaluated simultaneously using statistical tools called joint. The present paper examines the impact of global oil, Currency (Dollar) and gold prices on the Tehran Stock Exchange, using conditional heteroscedastic Models. indeed, we used autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH), the generalized ARCH (GARCH) to capture behavior of the volatility. Actual data of years obtained from the Iran Market is used to t the models.
    Keywords: Time series,Volatility models,TSE,Autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic,Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic
    Date: 2018
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Since completion of the first review, Jordan has preserved macroeconomic stability in a most difficult environment. It has weathered a series of severe and highly persistent shocks, including regional conflicts, domestic uncertainty, the hosting of Syrian refugees, the disruption of critical export markets, and rising borrowing costs. 2018 proved particularly challenging, but also saw important progress on key fiscal and structural reforms. While some slippages and delays, including a persistent shortfall in revenue collection, were a setback in the authorities’ fiscal consolidation efforts, most benchmarks from the first review have now been met (with the remainder expected to be met in the next few months). The authorities have passed a critical income-tax reform, which if implemented effectively, will result in a more balanced tax system, reducing exemptions, and supporting efforts against tax evasion. More importantly, they have formulated a comprehensive medium-term reform program to create the conditions for higher and more inclusive growth. Decisive implementation is now key to sustainably improve economic prospects.
    Date: 2019–05–08
  5. By: Gunes Asik
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Ben Hassine Khalladi, Hela
    Abstract: To assess to which extent public debt in Tunisia is sustainable in the medium term, we apply a stochastic debt sustainability analysis (SDSA), developped by Celasun, Debrun and Ostry in 2006. In contrast with the conventional debt sustainability analysis (DSA), this methodology explicitly takes into account the uncertainty characterizing the emerging markets, i.e the risks stemming from the interaction of the endogenous fiscal and macroeconomic shocks (related to growth rates, interest rates and exchange rates). Fan Charts are then derived from the projected debt paths, under a baseline and alternative policy scenarios. Our baseline projections suggest that Tunisian public debt will be unsustainable, in average, over the whole period (2018- 2022). When comparing the baseline projections with alternative policy scenarios, we can ascertain the high importance of a timely and continuous fiscal policy response to debt accumulation; otherwise, Tunisian public debt will get out of control.
    Keywords: Public Debt sustainability, Fiscal adjustment, Tunisia, fiscal reaction function
    JEL: F32 F34
    Date: 2019–04–22
  7. By: Anda David; Mohamed Ali Marouani; Charbel Nahas; Björn Nilsson
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Lafaw Dara Bayiz
    Abstract: In undertaking this investigation, the aim was to improve economic and social development in the region by providing a financial, economic and risk analysis of a 400-bed hospital project development by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The provision of healthcare services is one of the top priorities of the government. People living in this region have insufficient access to advanced healthcare services. This study is based on cost-effectiveness analyses employing the integrated investment appraisal technique. The strategy employed in this study is to move towards a more effective and better projection by carrying out the modeling of expected future healthcare service demands. This work focuses on a variety of internal and global policy areas such as financing, the fees charged by different earners and quality-adjusted life years. The conclusions should be of interest to those planning hospital projects in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and guiding the Ministries of Planning and Health to develop targeted solutions to the critical issues faced by the KRG. The study was conducted from May 2017 through May 2018. The necessary data for this investigation was obtained from the Ministry of Health Kurdistan-Iraq, the KRG Statistics Office and the Galala Construction Contracting Holding Ltd.
    Keywords: Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Healthcare Services, Hospital Project, Economic Analysis, Financial Analysis, Risk Analysis, Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
    JEL: D61 I38
    Date: 2018

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