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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Samia (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses both the descriptive and comparative approaches to provide overview of migration of higher education students from North Africa region. We fill the gap in the African literature and present a more comprehensive and recent analysis of migration of higher education students from North Africa region using UNESCO recent secondary data on international students mobility in tertiary education. We provide an interesting comparative analysis of migration of higher education students from North Africa region compared to South Africa. A novel element in our analysis is that we examine migration of higher education students from North Africa from both national and regional perspectives; mainly we discuss migration of higher education students for each individual country in North Africa region (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia) and then discuss the total for the entire North Africa region. Therefore, we provide an extremely valuable contribution to the increasing debate in the international literature concerning the increasing interaction between migration and increasing internationalisation of higher education. Our findings support the first hypothesis that from national perspective, the pattern and size of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region increased substantially over the past years but the distribution showed considerable variation across North African countries. Our results corroborate the second hypothesis that the increasing trend of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region is caused by several push-pull factors (e.g. economic, social, political, cultural and educational). Our results support the third hypothesis that migration of higher education students from the North Africa region lead to mixed positive and negative impacts (e.g. transfer of knowledge, brain gain and skill acquisition for returned migrant students, but weak capacity to retain talents and brain drain for non-returned migrant students). Our findings corroborate the fourth hypothesis that skills of migrant higher education students from North Africa region can be better mobilised in their countries of origin by addressing the push-pull factors that determine migration of skills from the North Africa region. |
| Keywords: | Migration, higher education students, International student mobility, Internationalisation of higher education, Africa, North Africa region |
| JEL: | J60 J61 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2019–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2019010&r=all |
| By: | Mostafa Shahen (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Koji Kotani (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Makoto Kakinaka (Hiroshima University) |
| Abstract: | Wage and labor between public and private sectors are main factors in economies. In developing countries, the private sector is divided into formal and informal private sectors. Little research has addressed temporal changes in wage and labor among public, formal private and informal private sectors within a single framework. We study the temporal wage gap, labor mobility and the impact of changing employment sectors on wages by Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition and difference-in-difference (DID) methods with the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey data from 1998 to 2012. The decomposition shows that the wage gap between public and formal (informal) private sectors has remained strong where education, age and working experience are driving forces. The DID method shows that the percentages and wage losses of movers to the informal private sector from the formal private sector are much higher and more significant than that from the public sector. In summary, Egyptian private sector employees face a high risk to unwillingly fall into and stay in the informal private sector, while the highly educated ones are attracted only to and stay long in the public sector. These results can be considered the obstacles for further economic growth and stability of Egyptian economy, which shall be the case in other developing and Arab countries with a sizable public sector. In this case, the government may need to restructure wage systems, employment practices and cultures, considering a balance with private sectors as well as providing people with incentive schemes and education to nurture (formalize) the formal (informal) private sectors. |
| Keywords: | Wage gap, public sector, formal private sector, informal private sector, Oaxaca- Blinder method |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 O17 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2019-4&r=all |
| By: | Gunes Asik; Ulas Karakoc; Mohamed Ali Marouani; Michelle Marshalian |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uds:wpaper:20190001&r=all |
| By: | Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau); Refk Selmi (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | Oil prices have tumbled after Saudi Arabia and its allies cut ties with Qatar, sparking anxiety that OPEC's fragile deal to curtail oil production could come undone. Also and although its daily oil output of around 600,000 barrels represents less than one percent of world crude production, Qatar is a major player in liquefied natural gas. This means that the current deterioration in relations among the Middle East neighbours would have significant implications for oil and gas markets.This paper is novel in its methodological approach, which is used to decompose the variance of oil stock price indices into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. The analysis reveals that the contributing factors have varied over time. Prior to the blockade on Qatar, the region-specific uncertainty plays an important role in driving the volatility of oil and gas shares for all cases. In considering the post-boycott, an increasing importance of the country-specific uncertainty factor is shown. This suggests that GCC states that have long resisted making a collective effort to accomplish energy security, are now moving into a new era during which securing their own supply routes will be an indispensable part of their mode of operation. To strengthen energy cooperation, it is first necessary to rebuild trust. |
| Keywords: | oil and gas markets,country- specific uncertainty,region-specific uncertainty,Qatar diplomatic crisis |
| Date: | 2019–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02101633&r=all |
| By: | Nelly El-Mallakh (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Did the Egyptian protests lead to political change? I examine the effects of the first and second waves of Egyptian protests that started in 2011, on voting outcomes during Egypt's first free Presidential elections that took place between May and June 2012. I geocoded the "martyrs" - demonstrators who died during the protests - using unique information from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution and exploited the variation in districts' exposure to the Egyptian protests. Using official elections' results collected from the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) and controlling for districts' characteristics using Census data, I find suggestive evidence that higher exposure to protests' intensity leads to a higher share of votes for former regime candidates, both during the first and second rounds of Egypt's first presidential elections after the uprisings. From the period of euphoria following the toppling of Mubarak to the sobering realities of the political transition process, I find that protests led to a conservative backlash, alongside negative economic expectations, general dissatisfaction with government performance, decreasing levels of trust towards public institutions, and increasing recognition of limitations on civil and political liberties. |
| Keywords: | Egyptian protests,Presidential elections,voting outcomes,martyrs |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01625199&r=all |
| By: | Aytul Ganioglu; Unal Seven |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the long-run convergence of regional house prices in Turkey. Using a non-linear time-varying factor model and quarterly house price data for the period between 2010 and 2018, we find that house prices do not converge across the 26 regions. The results reveal that the regions can be grouped into seven convergence clubs and one divergent club, confirming the heterogeneity and complexity of the Turkish housing market. These results also imply the existence of multiple steady states in the housing market. These outcomes will be beneficial to home buyers/sellers, investors, regulators and policymakers, who are interested in analyzing the dynamic interlinkages among house prices and the effects of shocks originating from the regional housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Housing market, House prices, Log-t test, Regional convergence |
| JEL: | R31 O18 C33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1914&r=all |
| By: | Baltagi, Badi H.; Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso; Karatas, Haci M. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between education and health outcomes using a natural experiment in Turkey. The compulsory schooling increased from 5 to 8 years in 1997. This increase was accompanied by a massive construction of classrooms and recruitment of teachers in a differential rate across regions. As in previous studies, we confirm that the 1997 reform substantially increased education in Turkey. Using the number of new middle school class openings per 1000 children as an intensity measure for the 1997 reform, we find that, on average, one additional middle school class increases the probability of completion of 8 years or more of schooling by about 7.1 percentage points. We use this exogenous increase in the educational attainment to investigate the impact of education on body mass index, obesity, smoking behavior, and self-rated health, as well as the effect of maternal education on the infant’s well-being. Using ordinary least squares, we find that there is a statistically significant favorable effect of education on health outcomes and behavior. However, this relationship becomes insignificant when we account for the endogeneity of education and health by instrumenting education with exogenous variations generated by the 1997 reform and the accompanying middle school class openings. The insignificance of the health effect may be due to lack of statistical power in our data, or to the fact that this policy affects only relatively low levels of schooling and the health effects of education need to be examined at higher levels of schooling. |
| Keywords: | health,education,compulsory schooling,body mass index,obesity,smoking,selfrated health,maternal education,infant’s well-being,Turkey |
| JEL: | C26 I12 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:346&r=all |
| By: | Mustafa Akay; Doruk Kucuksarac; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [EN] The increasing share of foreign currency debt in emerging market corporates has drawn attention in the last years. Therefore, containing FX risk of the corporates has become a priority for emerging markets. In this regard, the use of FX derivatives is one of the most commonly used solutions to hedge against FX risk. However, there seems to be substantial heterogeneity across the corporates in terms of derivative use. Therefore, understanding which corporates are more likely to engage in FX derivatives is crucial in terms of policy design. This study aims to determine firm-specific factors for derivative use of the nonfinancial firms quoted in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). The descriptive findings show that off-balance sheet accounts driven by FX derivatives have increased as well as on-balance sheet FX short position, which indicates that some of the Turkish nonfinancial firms engage in hedging activities. The study also employs a probit model for the identification of common characteristics of non-financial firms which use FX derivative instruments. It is found that firms with larger size and higher leverage ratios tend to utilize FX derivatives more whereas the firms with considerably ample liquidity buffers and higher tangible assets tend to use fewer FX derivatives. Then, we investigate the extent of derivative use with fixed effects panel regressions. The results show that firm size, tangibility ratio and degree of internationalization are found to be significant determinants of the extent of derivative use. [TR] Gelismekte olan ulke (GOU) firmalarinin doviz borclulugundaki son yillardaki artis dikkat ceken seviyelere gelmistir. Bu nedenle, firmalarin doviz kuru riskini azaltmak gelismekte olan ulkeler acisindan oncelik haline gelmistir. Bu baglamda, doviz kuru uzerine yazilmis turev araclarin (doviz turev) kullanilmasi, en yaygin yontemlerden biri olarak on plana cikmaktadir. Bununla birlikte, turev arac kullanimi acisindan firmalar arasinda heterojenlik gozlenmektedir. Bu nedenle, hangi tip firmalarin doviz turev araclarini kullandiginin ve kullanim tutarinda belirleyici olan unsurlarin anlasilmasi politika tasarimi acisindan onem tasimaktadir. Bu calismada, Borsa Istanbul'da (BIST) islem goren finansal kesim disi firmalarin turev kullaniminda belirleyici olan unsurlar incelenmektedir. Tanimlayici bulgular, doviz turev araclari tarafindan kaynaklanan bilanco disi pozisyonun, bilanco ici doviz acik pozisyonunu ile beraber arttigini gostermektedir. Bu durum, bazi firmalarin riskten korunma faaliyetlerinde bulunduguna isaret etmektedir. Calismada ayrica doviz turev araclari kullanan finansal kesim disi firmalarin ortak ozelliklerinin belirlenmesi icin kullanilan probit model sonuclari, buyuk firmalarin veya yuksek kaldirac oranlarina sahip firmalarin doviz turev araclarini daha fazla kullanma egiliminde oldugunu, ancak yuksek likidite tamponu ve maddi varliga sahip firmalarin ise daha az doviz turev araci kullanma egiliminde oldugunu gostermektedir. Son olarak, turev kullanim hacmi sabit etkiler panel regresyonlari ile incelenmis olup sonuclar, firma buyuklugunun, maddi duran varlik oraninin ve operasyonel anlamda uluslararasilasma derecesinin turev kullanim hacminde belirleyici oldugunu gostermektedir. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1908&r=all |
| By: | Ibrahim Yarba; Zehra Nuray Guner |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty of economic environment on corporate leverage dynamics over the last decade. This is the first study to investigate the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty on leverage dynamics of Turkish non-financial firms using firm-level data. We argue in this paper that persistence of uncertainty should be a more appropriate factor affecting credit dynamics rather than uncertainty. In that sense, we construct a measure of uncertainty by using principal component analysis and a measure of persistence of uncertainty for Turkey. Results from the dynamic panel models with a large set of control variables, provide significant evidence in support of the argument that leverage decisions are affected from the persistence of uncertainty rather than the uncertainty itself. Moreover, both the share of the financial debt in total liabilities and the leverage of Turkish non-financial firms decrease significantly when uncertainty increases persistently and when macroprudential policy tools are tightened. Most strikingly, this is the case only for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises but not for large firms. |
| Keywords: | Leverage dynamics, Macroprudential policy, Uncertainty, Persistence of uncertainty, Dynamic panel regressions |
| JEL: | C23 D22 D81 G18 G32 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1910&r=all |
| By: | Eda Gulsen; Hakan Kara |
| Abstract: | Measuring and monitoring inflation uncertainty is an essential ingredient of monetary policy analysis. This study constructs survey measures of inflation uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Using density and point inflation forecasts in the CBRT Survey of Expectations, we derive various uncertainty measures through standard deviation, entropy, and disagreement among forecasters. Our results suggest that survey-based inflation uncertainty measures are broadly consistent with market-implied indicators of inflation risk. Moreover, we find that an increase in observed inflation is associated with higher inflation uncertainty across all empirical specifications. |
| Keywords: | Inflation uncertainty, Inflation, Survey data, Density forecasts, Disagreement |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1912&r=all |
| By: | Husam R.; Samy S. Abu Naser (Al-Azhar University, Gaza); Suliman A El Talla; Mazen J Al Shobaki |
| Abstract: | The study aimed at explaining Information Technology Role in Determining Communication Style Prevalent Among Al-Azhar University Administrative Staff. The study population consists of all administrative staff from Al-Azhar University in Gaza. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers used the random sample method in the study. The study was conducted on a sample of (77) administrative staff from Al-Azhar University with 92.20% response rate. The study reached a number of results, the most important of which is that there is a high degree of satisfaction with the technology used by Gaza from the point of view of the administrative staff, where the percentage (74.14%). There is a high level of satisfaction with the type of Communication Style prevalent at Al-Azhar University-Gaza from the point of view of administrative staff, where the percentage is (71.36%). There is a direct correlation between the Information Technology and the type of Communication Style prevalent, there is a statistically significant impact of Information Technology Role in Determining Communication Style Prevalent Among Al-Azhar University Administrative Staff , the absence of differences between the sample according to the variables (gender, age, years of service, job level) in their perception of the Information Technology and the type of Communication Style prevalent. There are no statistically significant differences in the perception of Information Technology according to the variable of scientific qualification while there are differences in the pattern of Communication Style prevalent, and that the differences in the type of Communication Style prevalent according to the scientific qualification were in favor of holders of the diploma degree and bachelor's degree compared to the higher practical qualifications (postgraduate). The study reached a number of recommendations, the most important of which is that the interest of the departments of the Palestinian universities, especially Al-Azhar University, should be kept abreast of the latest developments in information technology, the need for the university administration to take care of the prevailing Communication Style prevalent and provide easy Communication Style prevalent, the continued administration of universities interest and continuous improvement of the performance of its Administrative Staff, enhance the periodic evaluation of job performance and to inform Administrative Staff and express their opinion. Solving Administrative Staff' problems and giving them the opportunity to contribute to solving their own problems, strengthening the democratic leadership style and empowering university staff. |
| Keywords: | Palestine,Palestinian Universities,Information Technology,Communication Style prevalent,Administrative Staff,Al-Azhar University |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02111495&r=all |
| By: | Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Samia (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to discuss the relationship between knowledge, knowledge economy and economic development in the Arab region. It aims to contribute to improve understanding and provide valuable contribution to the increasing debate in the international literature concerning the relationship between knowledge economy and economic development in the Arab region. We use the descriptive and comparative approaches and methods of analysis and use the conceptual framework and indicators often used in the international literature to discuss the relationship between knowledge, knowledge economy and economic development in the Arab region. Different from previous studies in the Arab literature, we fill the gap in the Arab literature, we present an in-depth and a more comprehensive analysis of the relationship between knowledge economy and economic development in the Arab region defined by income level using recent secondary data related to knowledge economy obtained from the Global Innovation Index Report (2018) and the World Bank (2012). Our results support the first hypothesis concerning the considerable variation in the promotion of knowledge economy depending on the level of economic development across the Arab countries. Our findings verify the second hypothesis that the relationship between knowledge economy and economic development in the Arab region is determined by several factors including economic development, economic incentives and institutional regime, education and human resources, innovation system and Information and Communication Technology. Our results support the third hypothesis that sound and coherent policies for the promotion of knowledge economy through the promotion of economic incentives and institutional regime, education and human resources, the innovation system and Information and Communication Technology would contribute to accelerate achievement of inclusive growth and sustainable development in the Arab countries. Our results in the Arab region show positive relationship between income level and knowledge index, knowledge economy index and knowledge economy index and most of knowledge economy indicators including knowledge workers, knowledge-intensive employment, knowledge absorption, knowledge and technology outputs, knowledge impact and knowledge diffusion. Our findings in the Arab region show positive relationship between income level and all knowledge economy index pillars (economic incentive and institutional regime pillar, education and human resources pillar, the innovation system pillar, and information and communication technology (ICT) pillar) and all factors facilitating the promotion of knowledge economy including institutions, human capital and research, education, tertiary education, research & development (R&D), infrastructure, information and communication technologies, and innovation. The major policy implication and recommendation that the promotion of knowledge economy depends on promotion of institutions, economic incentive and institutional regime, education, human resources and research (human capital, education, tertiary education, research & development (R&D)), innovation system (innovation input, output and efficiency) infrastructure, and information and communication technologies. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge, Knowledge economy, economic development, Arab countries |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O30 |
| Date: | 2019–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2019009&r=all |
| By: | Yasemin Erduman; Okan Eren; Selcuk Gul |
| Abstract: | This study explores the evolution of the import content of production and exports in Turkey for the 2002-2017 period. Using 2002 and 2012 input-output tables, we estimate the production and imported input use for the remaining years based on a large data set of production and foreign trade for 20 selected sectors, mostly from the manufacturing industry. Import requirement ratios, comprising both direct and indirect linkages, for each sector are calculated using the Leontief inverse matrix. Our findings indicate that import dependency increases for exports, but stays roughly the same for production over time. In general, the import content of production is below the import content of exports. This divergence can mainly be attributed to the services sector, which has relatively low import dependency, yet a significant share in production. Sectors with the highest import requirements are found to be those with higher capital and technology intensity such as coke and refined petroleum products, basic metals and motor vehicles. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery; service and mining sectors are found to have the lowest import requirements. |
| Keywords: | Input-output tables, Leontief inverse matrix, import content |
| JEL: | C67 D57 F14 L60 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1909&r=all |
| By: | Salih Fendoglu; Eda Gulsen; Josè-Luis Peydro |
| Abstract: | We show that global liquidity limits the transmission of local monetary policy on credit markets. For identification, we exploit global liquidity shocks in conjunction with monetary policy changes and exhaustive loan-level data (the credit and international interbank market registers) from a large emerging market, Turkey. We show that softer global liquidity conditions —proxied by lower VIX or expansionary US monetary policy— attenuate the pass-through of local monetary policy tightening on loan rates, especially for banks that borrow ex-ante more from international wholesale markets. Effects are also important for other credit margins and for bank risk-taking —especially for risky borrowers in FX loans. The mechanism at work is via a bank carry trade from international markets when local monetary conditions tighten. |
| Keywords: | Global liquidity, Global financial cycle, Monetary policy transmission, Emerging markets, Banks |
| JEL: | E52 F30 G01 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1913&r=all |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This essay offers an economic-history perspective of the long struggle towards macroeconomic stability. The paper is a broad analytical overview of major exogenous shocks and shifts in macroeconomic policy and institutions in Israel since the 1977-1985 great inflation through the global financial crisis and the effects of those shifts on long term growth, inflation, the business cycle, the Phillips curve and related economic developments. The paper will discuss three main issues. The first one on the inflation crisis focuses on the 1985 stabilization and on its impact on subsequent reform of monetary institutions. The second discusses the impact of globalization on growth, inflation and the Phillips curve. The third contains a discussion of the reasons for the relatively good performance of Israel during the 2008 global crisis, including foreign exchange market intervention. Henceforth we highlight: (1) the role of macro-populism in generating hyperinflation; (2) the role of seigniorage revenue in generating the hyperinflation; (3) distributive effects of inflation stabilization, which are political driving forces behind the need for across-the-broad-coalition for a successful stabilization policy; (4) the effects of globalization on the Philips Curve and thereby on domestic inflation-- means of transforming an inflation regime to a one with price stability; (5) the role of financial prudence regulatory institutions, which serve to explain the Israeli macroeconomic robustness in the face of the 2008 external depression-deflation global forces; and, (6) Israel’s government-deficit and money-creation experience, which help evaluate recent theory—the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). |
| JEL: | E0 F0 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25816&r=all |
| By: | M. Koray Kalafatcilar |
| Abstract: | This study firstly introduces demographic concepts and reveals the different dynamics displayed by emerging and advanced economies. Then, the links between demographic developments and economic activity are discussed. We aim to support our arguments with quantitative findings obtained through a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. The general equilibrium model, which is calibrated for Turkey, is simulated for the period until 2050 in accordance with changes in demographic exogenous variables. Through this simulation, the path that main macroeconomic variables follow is analyzed. The simulation exercise, conducted through the model which is de-trended with the increases in productivity and population, reveals that, compared to the initial steady state, production factor prices significantly change; real interest rate declines and real wage increases. |
| Keywords: | Demography, Overlapping generations, Savings, General equilibrium |
| JEL: | J11 E21 C61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1911&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Salih Fendoglu |
| Abstract: | Exporters have large domestic supply networks. We examine the impact of import reliance within their domestic supply networks on exchange rate pass-through to export prices and volume. For identification, we use administrative firm-to-firm sales and firm-product-destination level customs databases from a large emerging market, Turkey. We find that (i) while exporters' degree of reliance on imported goods is 24\%, this number reaches nearly 45\% once their suppliers are taken into account; (ii) following a domestic currency depreciation, exporters that use imported inputs more or those working with import-intensive suppliers raise their producer-currency export prices significantly more and increase their export volumes significantly less; (iii) exporters with higher reliance on a single supplier have higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices; and (iv) exporters with higher overall import intensity experience greater disruption in their supply networks, e.g., they establish fewer new supplier linkages and terminate more of their existing linkages, following a domestic currency depreciation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through, Exports, Import reliance, Domestic supply networks |
| JEL: | D24 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1908&r=all |
| By: | Ozgur Ozel; Aysu Celgin; Mert Gokcu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notta Turkiye’nin reel ihracatinda ve ithalatinda gelir ve goreli fiyat etkilerinin ayristirilmasi amaclanmaktadir. Calismada altin haric ihracat ve ithalat yapisal degiskenler iceren denklemler kullanilarak ceyreklik olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Daha sonra, altin haric reel ihracat ve ithalattaki degisimlerin kaynaklari bu degiskenlere gelen soklar ve degiskenlerin katsayilari kullanilarak ayristirilmaktadir. Yapilan analiz, onceki calismalarla uyumlu olarak, ihracatin dis talebe reel kurdan daha duyarli oldugunu; reel ithalat degisimlerinin ise yurt ici talep ve reel kurdan daha cok etkilendigini ortaya koymaktadir. Ayrica, 2011-2018 doneminde reel ihracat ve ithalattaki toplam degisimin gelir ve goreli fiyat degisimlerinden kaynaklanan kisimlari ayri ayri hesaplanmistir. Bu donemde, mal ihracatindaki degisimde gelir etkisi daha belirleyici iken, hizmet ihracatina gelir ve goreli fiyatlarin dengeli bir katki verdigi gorulmektedir. Toplam ithalattaki degisimde de mal ihracatina benzer bir sekilde gelir etkisi one cikmaktadir.[EN] The aim of this note is to decompose income and relative price effects for real exports and imports of Turkey. In this work exports and imports excluding gold are estimated quarterly employing structural variables. Next, the sources of the changes in real exports and imports excluding gold are decomposed using the shocks and the estimated parameters. The analysis, in accordance with previous research, reveals that exports are more sensitive to foreign demand compared to the real exchange rate. Real imports, on the other hand, are affected primarily from domestic demand and real exchange rate rather than real exports. Moreover, the total change in real exports and imports during 2011-2018 period stemming from income and relative price changes are calculated separately. In this period, while income has more pronounced effect on exports of goods, income and relative prices exhibit a more balanced effect on exports of services. Similar to the exports of goods, income effect accounts for a larger amount of the changes in imports. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1905&r=all |
| By: | Elif Ozcan Tok; Orhun Sevinc |
| Abstract: | [TR] Son elli yildir kuresel pazarlarin butunlesmesi, uretim surecinin belirli asamalarda uzmanlasmis ulkelerle dikey olarak butunlesik bir yapiya donusmesini saglamistir. Turkiye de daha ucuz ve kaliteli uretim girdilerine hizli ve surekli bir bicimde ulasmak isteyen diger ulkeler gibi dis kaynaklara yonelerek ithal girdi kullanimini yogunlastirmistir. Bu calismada, girdi-cikti tablolarindan yararlanilarak uretimin ithal girdi yogunlugunun 2000’lerin basindan itibaren sektorlere ve yillara gore nasil degistigi ve Turkiye’nin dikey ticaret zincirlerine ne olcude katilim sagladigi incelenmektedir. Girdi-cikti tablolarindan yapilan hesaplamalara gore toplam uretimin ithal girdi yogunlugu 2002 yilinda yuzde 16,1 iken 2012 yilinda yuzde 19,3’e yukselmistir. Dikey uzmanlasma orani ise 2012 yilinda yuzde 30,2 civarinda seyretmektedir.[EN] The integration of global markets over the last fifty years has led to the transformation of the production process into a vertically integrated structure with countries specialized at certain stages. Turkey, like other countries that continuously want to access cheaper and higher quality production inputs, has opted for external sources and intensified its use of imported inputs. This study by utilizing input-output tables examines how the import content of production has changed since the early 2000s by sectors and years and to what extent Turkey participates in vertical trade chains. According to calculations from input-output tables, the import content of total production increased from 16.1 percent in 2002 to 19.3 percent in 2012. The vertical specialization rate is around 30.2 percent in 2012. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1906&r=all |