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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This paper has examined the effect of urbanization and economic misery on average life expectancy in selected MENA nations from 2001 to 2016. The selected MENA nations are: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Islamic Rep., Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen Rep. PP-Fisher Chi-square, Levin, Lin & Chu t*, Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat and ADF-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests have been used for examining unit root issue in the data. Panel ARDL has been used for reviewing the co-integration among the selected indicators. The causality of the variables has been analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition. The outcomes reveal that food availability has significant and positive relation with an average life expectancy. The outcomes show that environmental standards put significant and positive impact on average life expectancy. The outcomes reveal that economic misery has a significant and negative influence on average life expectancy in MENA nations. The findings reveal that urbanization puts significant and positive influence on average life expectancy. So, for improving the average life expectancy in MENA nations availability of food, household final consumption and the level of urbanization must be enhanced. Whereas at the time economic misery will be reduced. |
| Keywords: | Economic misery, urbanization, life expectancy |
| JEL: | E31 J17 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93459&r=all |
| By: | Harry Anthony Patrinos (The World Bank); George Psacharopoulos (Georgetown University); Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University (METU); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Economic Research Forum (ERF)) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates private and social returns to investment in education in Turkey, using the 2017 Household Labor Force Survey and alternative methodologies. The analysis uses the 1997 education reform of increasing compulsory education by three years as an instrument. This results in a private rate of return on the order of 16 percent for higher education and a social return of 10 percent. Using the number of children younger than age 15 in the household as an exclusion restriction, the analysis finds that returns to education for females are higher than those for males. Contrary to many findings in other countries, private returns to those working in the public sector are higher than those in the private sector, and private returns to those who followed the vocational track in secondary education are higher than those in the general academic track. The paper discusses the policy implications of the findings. |
| Keywords: | Education, Returns to Education, Turkey. |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1906&r=all |
| By: | Abdelaaziz Aït Ali |
| Abstract: | Morocco has moved towards a more flexible exchange rate system by widening its currency fluctuation bands to +/- 2.5% around a central price. This transition will, in time, equip the Moroccan economy with a macroeconomic instrument acting as a shock absorber and facilitating rapid adjustment at lower costs. In the absence of such a mechanism, adjustment to macroeconomic shocks at times requires a contraction in demand and thereby a cyclical downturn in growth to restore external balances. Broadening the fluctuation bands is a first step towards a long-term managed floating regime that nevertheless gives the central bank an important role in smoothing out exchange rate fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb1840en&r=all |
| By: | EL OTHMANI, Jawad (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | Ce travail porte sur l'estimation d'un modèle hybride néo-keynesien (HNKM) formé de trois équations structurelles caractérisant l'économie marocaine. Il s'agit de la courbe de demande, de la courbe d'o¤re et d'une règle Taylor augmentée des réserves de change. Le modèle est estimé par une approche bayésienne à partir des données trimestrielles couvrant la période 1998Q1-2016Q4. Parallèlement et s'inspirant des travaux de Del Negro et Schorfheide (2004), un modèle BVAR-DSGE a été estimé en exploitant les priors issus du modèle HNKM. Les fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles ont été comparées et les performances prédictives de ces deux modèles structurels ont été confrontées à des modèles statistiques alternatifs: le VAR classique et le BVAR. Il ressort des résultats des modèles HNKM et BVAR-DSGE que les réactions des variables aux di¤érents chocs sont globalement similaires et conformes aux prédictions de la théorie économique. L'étude de la qualité prévisionnelle des di¤érents modèles indique que le BVAR-DSGE et le HNKM présentent des avantages comparatifs mais sans dominer, en tous points, les modèles statistiques tels que le VAR classique et le VAR bayésien. |
| Keywords: | HNKM; BVAR-DSGE; BVAR; estimation bayésienne |
| JEL: | C10 C11 C13 E10 E12 E17 |
| Date: | 2018–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:bkamdt:2018_005&r=all |
| By: | Fatma Pinar Erdem; Ali Gencay Ozbekler |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Ocak 2010 - Temmuz 2018 doneminde enflasyon ve cari denge veri surprizlerinin spot doviz piyasasinda ABD dolari/Turk lirasi kuru uzerindeki etkisi gun ici pencereler yontemi kullanilarak test edilmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, beklentilerden olumsuz aciklanan verilerin Turk lirasinda deger kayiplarina yol actigini, gun ici pencerelerde gorulen anlamli etkinin gun sonunda devam etmedigine isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, enflasyonun beklentilerden yuksek geldigi veriler sonrasinda Turk lirasi deger kaybi yonunde daha yuksek hassasiyet gosterirken, cari islemler dengesi verilerinde olumlu surprizler doviz piyasasinda daha etkili bulunmustur. Bu calisma kapsaminda, sonuclar enflasyon ve cari acik surprizlerine piyasa tepkisinin farklilastigina isaret etmektedir. [EN] This paper investigates the response of USDTRY parity to data surprises of inflation and current account releases by using intraday data during the period between January 2010 and July 2018. Our results show that data surprises have significant effect on the FX market during the intraday periods while, the effects disappear towards the end of the data release day. In addition, the sensitivity of FX market on inflation in terms of negative data surprises (data higher than expectations) is found to be higher than the positive data surprises (data lower than expectations). On the other hand, positive current account data surprises are found to have more impact on the spot FX market than negative data surprises. Thus, our study unveils an asymmetry in market reaction to the data releases of inflation and current account in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1901&r=all |
| By: | Halil Ibrahim Aydin; Gokhan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada iktisat yazinindaki kredi buyumesini degerlendirme amacina yonelik yontemler kullanilarak son 20 yilda Turk bankacilik sektoru icin kredi acigi gostergeleri incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, toplam kredilerin gayri safi yurt ici hasilaya (GSYIH) orani ve reel kredi miktari ile bu buyukluklerin kendi egilimlerinden sapmasi kullanilarak tarihsel kredi acigi gostergeleri olusturulmustur. Gostergelerin kredi gelismeleri acisindan nasil yorumlanabilecegi, Turkiye ekonomisinde gorulen is cevrimlerinin ozellikleri dikkate alinarak tartisilmistir. Yapilan analizler sonucunda seriler olusturulurken kullanilan filtrelerin is cevrimlerine dair varsayimlara duyarli oldugu ve bu durumun farkli politika cikarimlarina neden olabilecegi gosterilmistir. Ayrica, her bir gostergenin isaret ettigi asiri kredi buyumesi donemleri tanimlanmis ve tartisilmistir.[EN] This study examines the credit gap indicators for the Turkish banking sector during last 20 years using methods employed in the literature for evaluating credit growth. In doing so, historical credit gap indicators are constructed by total credits to GDP ratio and real credit growth as well as their deviations from trend. Considering the business cycle dynamics in the Turkish economy, how those indicators should be interpreted for the credit developments is discussed. Results show that filters used in creating the series are sensitive to underlying assumptions about business cycles which may lead to different policy implications. Moreover, excessive credit growth periods implied by each indicator are identified and discussed. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1902&r=all |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada hanehalki tasarruflarinin dogru olculmesinde enflasyon guncellemesinin onemi arastirilmaktadir. Bu amac icin Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu (TUIK) tarafindan hazirlanan Hanehalki Butce Anketleri mikro-ekonomik verilerinden yararlanilmaktadir. Oncelikle, hanehalki tasarruflari hesaplanirken enflasyon guncellemesi yapilmadigi takdirde hanehalki tasarruflarinin gercekte oldugundan daha dusuk olculdugu gosterilmektedir. Ayrica, hanehalki tasarruflarinda enflasyon guncellemesi yapilmadigi takdirde olusan kayiplar hane reisinin yasi ve egitim duzeyi ile aile yapisina ve oturulan konutta mulkiyet durumuna gore incelenmistir. Hanehalki tasarruflarinda olusan kayiplarin orani genc hane reisine sahip ailelerde daha yuksektir. Buna ek olarak, genis aileler ile kiracilarin karsilastigi kayip oranlarinin daha fazla oldugu gozlenmistir. Diger yandan, hane reisinin egitim duzeyi arttikca hanehalki tasarruflarinda olusan kayiplarin orani azalmaktadir.[EN] The importance of inflation accounting in accurate measurement of household savings is being investigated in this study. For this purpose, micro-economic data from Household Budget Surveys, which are prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) are analyzed. First, it is shown that if inflation adjustment is not carried out when household savings are calculated, then household savings are estimated at a lower level than their true level. Moreover, the losses in household savings due to the lack of inflation adjustment are examined with respect to the age and education level of the household head, family type and tenure status in the residence. The rate of losses in household savings is higher in families with young household heads. Moreover, extended families and tenants experience higher loss rates. However, as the education level of the head of household increases, the rate of losses in household savings decreases. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1903&r=all |