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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Pinar Tat (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This article explores educational mismatch for twenty-three different Turkish industrial sectors using all available household surveys from 2004 to 2015. Our aim is to first evaluate the educational mismatch level in the Turkish industrial sectors and then analyze its effects on the sectoral total factor productivity, labor productivity, and wages. For the sectoral total factor productivity, our dynamic panel data estimations suggest that the modal value of education increases the growth rate of total factor productivity. Therefore, the widespread existence of educational mismatch implies the efficiency loss in Turkish manufacturing sector for the period of 2004-2015. For the sectoral labor productivity, the modal value of education and the mean value of over-education increases labor productivity whereas the mean value of under-education decreases it. These results clearly imply that the human capital theory overcomes the job satisfaction theory for the Turkish industrial industry because the mean years of over-education increases the sectoral labor productivity. For the sectoral wages, the mean value of over-education raises wages. |
| Keywords: | educational mismatch, total factor productivity, labor productivity, wages, Turkey, industrial sectors |
| JEL: | E24 I25 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2019-02&r=all |
| By: | Tahsin, Emine |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to focus on income inequality concentration based on Palma ratio as an income inequality metrics and in this regard change in income deciles of Turkey both on national ( for period 2002-2017) and NUTS-1 level for period of 2006-2017 would be investigated. In this context cons and pros of metrics would be considered hence this study would not suggest that Palma ratio is the best inequality metrics that explains inequalities. However analytical framework of the Palma ratio would be taken into consideration in order to focus on concentration of income inequality. So that possibility of exploring dimensions of hidden inequality that could not be asserted by Gini coefficient, in case of Turkey would be investigated. Given that, primarily the Gini coefficient series based on Turkstat and Povcal data would be compared for period 2002-2017 for Turkey. Following this path, the Palma ratio; the ratio of the share of top 10 percent income to the bottom 40 percent income (D10/D1-D4) would be investigated both on national and regional level. First of all based on studies that refers to Palma ratio descriptive and explanatory statistics would be utilized. For analyzing robustness of Palma ratio and investigating importance of change in relevant income deciles, mean and percentage shares’ would be considered. Within this context rather than analyzing absolute improvement, proportional change in income deciles, Gini coefficient and Palma ratio with respect to total mean income and GDP per capita income(Turkstat 2004-2016)would be estimated. While analyzing descriptive statistics for both income deciles and mean income data, existence of “outliers” would be investigated. For this purpose in order to examine regional disparities,on the basis of income deciles’ percentage share of relevant deciles would be estimated by Mahalanobis distance calculation. Furthermore in order to analyze concentration of income inequality, decomposition of Gini coefficient values based on sub-population grouping (regions) would be evaluated. In doing so between(Bahattacharya and Mahalanobis,1976, Giorgi,2011) and within group decomposition (Bellu and Liberati, 2006) analysis would be considered for mean incomes and Gini coefficient values’. Based on these results, it would be suggested that investigation based on Palma ratio and income deciles would permit more detailed analysis of concentration of income inequality. Opposite tails ( the richest D10 and the poorest D1-D4) of Turkey’s provide us to explain asymmetries in income distribution dynamics. Robustness of Palma ratio would be evaluated while it would be underlined that apart from overlapping trend between Palma ratio and Gini coefficient, D10 income deciles and Gini coefficient has strong correlation that determines concentration of income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, Palma ratio, Regional income distribution in case of Turkey, Mahallonobis distance calculation, Gini decomposition, Income inequality concentration |
| JEL: | C1 E25 O1 O5 R10 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92490&r=all |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg,); Hassan F. Gholipour (Swinburne University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of individuals’ memories of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) during early adulthood (18-25 years) on their preference for strong national defense forces and their willingness to fight for Iran (in the event of another war). Using the World Value Survey (WVS) data, we provide evidence that Iranians who experienced the war during early adulthood give top priority to strong defense forces. However, we find that there is no significant association between individuals’ memories of the war during early adulthood and their willingness to fight for Iran. The results are robust, controlling for a set of individuals’ socioeconomic and political characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Preferences for defense; Iran-Iraq war; Impressionable years hypothesis; Beliefs |
| JEL: | H56 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201907&r=all |
| By: | Resul Cesur; Pinar Mine Gunes; Erdal Tekin; Aydogan Ulker |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of a nationwide healthcare reform implemented in Turkey on women’s fertility decisions. The Family Medicine Program (FMP), introduced in 2005, provided a wide-range of primary healthcare services, free of charge, and achieved universal access by matching each citizen to a specific family physician, who operates at neighborhood clinics, called Family Health Centers, on a walk-in basis. Although reducing fertility was not specified among the goals of the reform, reproductive-health and family-planning services have been covered under the FMP. To establish causality, we exploit the staggered rollout of the FMP implementation across Turkish provinces over time using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy. Our estimates indicate that the FMP significantly reduced childbearing among both teenagers and women ages 20-29. These results can be explained by increased access to and reduced cost of reproductive-health and family-planning services. However, the patterns in which the program effect has evolved over time differs between the two groups of women in a way that provides additional insights about the mechanisms. For teenagers, the FMP had a direct effect on childbearing, reflected by an immediate and rapidly-increasing pattern, which is not surprising given the broad agreement about the negative consequences of teenage childbearing among government and public health officials, including those in Turkey. For women ages 20-29, however, the program had a gradual and slowly-increasing effect, which is consistent with an empowerment channel. This should be interpreted as an unintended consequence of the program because, if anything, Turkey is a country where the government’s position is to encourage fertility behavior and discourage birth control practices among women at prime childbearing ages. |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I13 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25605&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The UAE has successfully weathered recent external shocks, thanks to its large financial buffers, diversified economy, and strong policy response. Continued fiscal and structural reforms to raise productivity while adequately saving oil revenues for future generations over the longer term will help ensure economic resilience and prosperity in the years to come. The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices. Growth momentum is expected to strengthen in the next few years, helped by higher oil output, increased public investment, and stepped-up structural reforms. Downside risks have risen, driven by global and regional factors. |
| Date: | 2019–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/35&r=all |
| By: | Souguir, Afef |
| Abstract: | In this study, we try to evaluate the specialization of the Tunisian international trade in relation to the European Union’s (EU-28) market during the 2004/2015 period. Trade between Tunisia and the EU has grown significantly since the signing of an EU-Tunisia Association Agreement in 1995. The examination of relative trade benefits showed that Tunisia has the highest relative trade advantage in the EU-28 in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3). On the other hand, the need for modernization and restructuring of their productive production facilities stimulated the European exports of capital goods and high-tech products (chemicals and related products (SITC 5) and machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7)). The crossed trading of similar products also intensified sharply over the 2004/2015 period. |
| Keywords: | Intra-industry trade specialization; relative trade advantage index; Grubel Lloyd index. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2019–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92500&r=all |
| By: | Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the role of firm segregation on the gender wage gap. Using linked employee-employer data for Turkey, we investigate whether female segregation into low-paying firms and into low-paying jobs within a firm influence the gender wage gap across the wage distribution. We find that there is a 'glass ceiling' effect in the Turkish labour market, but this effect is more apparent within a firm than between firms. We also find a 'sticky floor' effect, but only among workers employed at the same firm. Our results imply that the allocation of women into lowpaying jobs within each firm accounts for the existence of these effects more than the segregation of women into low-paying firms. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, segregation, within- and between-firms, glass ceiling, sticky floor |
| JEL: | C21 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2019/7&r=all |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens (Center for Global Development; IZA) |
| Abstract: | ‘Guest workers’ earn higher wages overseas on temporary low-skill employment visas. This wage effect can quantify global inefficiencies in the pure spatial allocation of labor between poorer and richer countries. But rigorous estimates are rare, complicated by migrant self-selection. This paper tests the effects of guest work on Indian applicants to a construction job in the United Arab Emirates, where a crisis exogenously influenced job placement. Guest work raised the return to labor by a factor of four, implying large spatial inefficiency. Short-term effects on households were modest. Effects on information, debt, and later migration were incompatible with systematic fraud. |
| Keywords: | income, human capital, migration, labor, mobility, guest work, india, gulf, construction, worker, selection, migrant, temporary, visa, wage, education, crisis, low-skill, unskilled, credit, exploited, naive, regret, slavery, trafficking, debt, coerced, cheated |
| JEL: | F22 J6 O12 O16 O19 |
| Date: | 2019–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:501&r=all |
| By: | Cheratian, Iman; Goltabar, Saleh; Calá, Carla Daniela |
| Abstract: | Given the importance of entry promotion to prompt economic growth and promote structural transformation, this paper investigates the regional determinants of firm entry in the 30 Iranian regions, considering four different sizes -micro, small, medium and large- over 2000-2015. Using a new and unique database, we estimate panel non-spatial and spatial lag and error dependence models. We find that regional factors explain firm entry, but the impact is not homogeneous across firms of different size. We also find that most types of firms are influenced by the negative effect of economic sanctions during the sample period. Keywords: firm entry, ecological approach, spatial models, Iranian economy. |
| Keywords: | Dinámica Empresarial; Creación de Empresas; Distribución Espacial; Iran; |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3058&r=all |
| By: | Ricardo Hausmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Miguel Angel Santos (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ana Grisanti (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Jorge Tapia (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | In the decade 1999-2009, Jordan experienced an impressive growth acceleration, tripling its exports and increasing income per capita by 38%. Since then, a number of external shocks that include the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009), the Arab Spring (2011), the Syrian Civil War (2011), and the emergence of the Islamic State (2014) have affected Jordan in significant ways and thrown its economy out of balance. Jordan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned from 55% (2009) to 94% (2018). The economy has continued to grow amidst massive fiscal adjustment and balance of payments constraints, but the large increase in population – by 50% between 2008 and 2017 – driven by massive waves of refugees has resulted in a 12% cumulative loss in income per capita (2010-2017). Moving forward, debt sustainability will require not only continued fiscal consolidation but also faster growth and international support to keep interest payments on the debt contained. We have developed an innovative framework to align Jordan’s growth strategy with its changing factor endowments. The framework incorporates service industries into an Economic Complexity analysis, utilizing the Dun and Bradstreet database, together with an evaluation of the evolution of Jordan’s comparative advantages over time. Combining several tools to identify critical constraints faced by sectors with the greatest potential, we have produced a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to faster, more sustainable and more inclusive growth that is consistent with its emerging comparative advantages. |
| Keywords: | Jordan, growth, labor markets, female labor, complexity, growth diagnostics, growth accelerations, service exports |
| JEL: | E23 E24 E62 E65 J21 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:346&r=all |
| By: | Florent Bédécarrats (AFD Paris, France); Isabelle Guérin (IRD CESSMA); Solène Morvant-Roux (School of Social Sciences UNIGE-G3S, University of Geneva); François Roubaud (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | We replicate a flagship randomised control trial carried out in rural Morocco that showed substantial and significant impacts of microcredit on the assets, the outputs, the expenses and the profits of self-employment activities. The original results rely primarily on trimming, which is the exclusion of observations with the highest values on some variables. However, the applied trimming procedures are inconsistent between the baseline and the endline. Using identical specifications as the original paper reveals large and significant imbalances at the baseline and, at the endline impacts on implausible outcomes, like household head gender, language or education. This calls into question the reliability of the data and the integrity of the experiment protocol. We find a series of coding, measurement and sampling errors. Correcting the identified errors lead to different results. After rectifying identified errors, we still find substantial imbalances at baseline and implausible impacts at the endline. Our re-analysis focused on the lack of internal validity of this experiment, but several of the identified issues also raise concerns about its external validity. |
| Keywords: | RCT, Microcredit, J-PAL, Replication, Morocco, Internal validity, Data quality |
| JEL: | C18 C83 C93 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201809&r=all |
| By: | Florent Bédécarrats (AFD Paris, France); Isabelle Guérin (IRD CESSMA); Solène Morvant-Roux (School of Social Sciences UNIGE-G3S, University of Geneva); François Roubaud (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Comment expliquer le succès académique d’une étude randomisée dont la validité, tant interne qu’externe, est pourtant très problématique ? Prenant l’exemple d’une étude menée par le laboratoire J-PAL sur le microcrédit rural marocain, cet article mobilise les outils analytiques de la statistique, de l’économie politique et de la sociologie des sciences pour répondre à cette question. Il décrit l’ensemble de la chaîne de production de l’étude, depuis l’échantillonnage jusqu’à la publication et la dissémination des résultats, en passant par la collecte de données, la saisie et le recodage, les estimations et les interprétations. Il met en évidence une stratégie particulièrement offensive qui permet aux chercheurs de J-PAL de faire table rase du passé, y compris en s’affranchissant d’une « culture de la donnée », de refuser la critique et de contourner les règles de base de l’exercice scientifique tout au long du processus de recherche. Bien au-delà de J-PAL, nos analyses questionnent la supposée supériorité des méthodes randomisées tout en reflétant un malaise grandissant au sein du champ académique, qui parvient de moins en moins à faire respecter les règles de base de l’éthique et de la déontologie scientifique._______english_______How can we explain the academic success of a randomized study whose validity, both internal and external, is very problematic? Drawing on a study conducted on Moroccan rural microcredit by J-PAL, this article uses analytical tools from statistics, political economy and sociology of science to answer this question. It describes the entire study production chain, from sampling, data collection, data entry and recoding, estimates and interpretations to publication and dissemination of results. It highlights a particularly aggressive strategy carried out throughout the study process and in the field of research. This allows J-PAL researchers to put the past behind them, including by freeing themselves from a "data culture", rejecting criticism and bypassing the basic rules of scientific exercise throughout the research process. Well beyond J-PAL, our analyses question the supposed superiority of randomized methods while reflecting a growing unease within the academic field, which is less and less successful in enforcing the basic rules of ethics and scientific deontology. |
| Keywords: | Randomized Control Trial (RCT), microcrédit, Réplication, Maroc, validité interne, validité externe, sociologie des sciences, microcredit, Replication, Morocco, internal validity, internal validity, sociology of sciences. |
| JEL: | A11 A14 B41 C18 C93 N27 O16 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201904&r=all |
| By: | Dhaoui, Iyad |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the achievements and disparties toward SDGs in MENA countries in two-stage performance analysis. First, we use a descriptive approach and then a composite indicator ‘SDG achievement index’ (SDGI) for the social develoment in the the region through Principle Component Analysis weighting. After that, the analysis examines the coherence between this index and income per capita. The descriptive analysis and the composite indicator confirm the existence of disparties between the countries of the region in all components of social development. Furthermore, the results reveal consistency between the SDGI and GDP per capita for some countries and inconsistency for others. |
| Keywords: | SDGs - Disparities - Composite Indicator -MENA countries |
| JEL: | C43 F01 O11 Q01 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92471&r=all |
| By: | Suwareh Darbo (African Development Bank); Amandine Nakumuryango (African Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this working paper is to investigate the factors contributing to inflation in Sudan in the wake of South Sudan’s secession, which resulted in the loss of 75% of the country’s oil exports. The paper uses a single equation model in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to investigate the determinants of inflation. The independent variables included in the model are money supply, the nominal effective exchange rate based on the parallel rate, credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, and crude oil prices. The results indicate that, in the long run, oil prices have a negative effect on inflation while money supply, credit to private sector, and nominal effective exchange rate have positive effects. This underscores the need to manage money supply, the exchange rate, and credit to the private sector, all of which can be influenced by the monetary authorities—that is, the Central Bank of Sudan.JEL classification: E310 E520 E58Keywords: Inflation, money supply, exchange rate, credit, oil prices Sudan, long-run, VECM. |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2432&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Iran from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the I series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model for predicting CPI in Iran. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Iran. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Iran is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next ten years. The study basically encourages Iranian policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Iran. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Iran; inflation |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92454&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | Using annual time series data on total population in Algeria from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Algeria annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (4, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are integrated of order zero. The results of the study reveal that total population in Algeria will continue to rise gradually in the next three decades and in 2050 Algeria’s total population will be approximately 62 million people. In order to outsmart the Malthusian population trap, 4 policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Algeria; Forecasting; Population |
| JEL: | C53 Q56 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92425&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Algeria from 1970 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that A is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Algeria. The results of the study apparently show that A will ranging between 4.9% and 5.2% over the out-of-sample period. Monetary authorities in Algeria are expected to tighten Algeria’s monetary policy in order to maintain price stability. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Inflation |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92426&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Japan from 1963 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the Y series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model for predicting CPI in Saudi Arabia. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Saudi Arabia. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Saudi Arabia is likely to be relatively high in the next decade. The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to deal with inflation in Saudi Arabia. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Inflation; Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92422&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Morocco from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that M is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable in forecasting inflation in Morocco. The results of the study apparently show that M will be hovering somewhere around 1.1% over the next decade. Policy makers and the business community in Morocco are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; inflation; Morocco |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92455&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Egypt from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that E is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Egypt. The results of the study apparently show that E will be approximately 23.3% over the out-of-sample forecast period. The CBE is expected to continue tightening Egypt’s monetary policy in order to restore price stability. |
| Keywords: | Egypt; forecasting; inflation |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92446&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This paper uses annual time series data on inflation in Israel from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that Q is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model for predicting inflation in Israel. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Israel. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in Israel is likely to be hovering around 1.6% over the next decade. Basically, the study encourages the Bank of Israel to continue being transparent and independent in order to retain credibility and boost its ability to engineer successful macroeconomic policy actions. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Inflation |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2019–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92427&r=all |