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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Orhun Sevinc |
| Abstract: | [EN] Globalization, which continued uninterruptedly from the 1980s to the recent period, was accompanied by rapid transformations in trade, finance and technology. In addition to its common impacts such as economic integration and increased mobility of labor, capital and information, the opportunities and risks caused by globalization significantly differ across countries. This study reviews the changes in growth, unemployment, inflation, trade and industry dynamics in emerging markets and Turkey vis-à-vis globalization and discusses aggregate and country-specific conditions to benefit more from globalization. [TR] 1980’lerden gunumuze kadar araliksiz devam eden kuresellesme sureci ticaret, finans ve teknoloji alanindaki hizli donusumleri beraberinde getirmistir. Ulkelerin ekonomik butunlesmesine ek olarak isgucu hareketliligi ile sermaye ve bilginin dolasimini hizlandirmasi gibi genel sonuclar iceren kuresellesme, sagladigi gelisim imkanlari ve yol actigi riskler acisindan ise ulkeden ulkeye belirgin farkliliklar gostermektedir. Bu calismada, gelismekte olan ulkeler ve Turkiye’de kuresellesme sureciyle birlikte buyume, issizlik, enflasyon, ticaret ve sanayi dinamiklerinin ne yonde degistigi incelenmekte ve kuresellesmeden daha cok yararlanabilmeye iliskin olarak genel ve ulkeye ozgu kosullar tartisilmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1814&r=all |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] Expectations about GDP growth play important role in the decision making process of policy makers and investors.Yet, GDP data for a period are published with a certain lag. So, for quarterly GDP growth there are various methodsfor updating nowcasts with the information flow. However, methods that enable one to mechanically updatenowcasts for annual GDP growth are not very common. As a matter of fact, judgement plays non-negligible role innowcasts of annual GDP growth. In this note, we analyze the performance of MIDAS approach for nowcastingannual GDP growth for Turkish economy for 2003-2017. We use growth rates of quarter-on-quarter GDP andmonth-on-month industrial production and exchange rate for modelling annual GDP growth. We find that as ofSeptember, we can get fairly accurate nowcasts for annual GDP growth. Using exchange rate contributes toreduction in nowcast errors in the first half of the year.[TR] GSYIH buyumesine iliskin beklentiler politika yapicilar ve yatirimcilar icin onemli bir gostergedir. Buna karsin, GSYIH verileri belirli bir gecikme ile yayimlanmaktadir. Bu nedenle, ceyreklik frekanstaki GSYIH buyumesini veri akisina gore mekanik olarak guncellemeye imkan veren cesitli yontemler gelistirilmistir. Yil geneli buyume tahminleri icin ise bu tur yontemler sinirlidir. Bu nedenle, tahminlerde yargisallik onemli rol oynayabilmektedir. Bu calismada, MIDAS yaklasimi kullanilarak yillik GSYIH buyumesi, ceyrekten ceyrege GSYIH ve aydan aya sanayi uretimi ile dolar kuru degisimleri kullanarak modellenmektedir. Sonuclar, Eylul ayi itibariyla uretilen tahminlerin gerceklesmelere oldukca yakin seyrettigini gostermektedir. Kurlara iliskin verilerin kullanilmasi, yilin ilk yarisinda tahmin hatalarinin dusmesine katkida bulunmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1810&r=all |
| By: | Meltem Gulenay Chadwick; Huseyin Ozturk |
| Abstract: | In this study, we aim to construct a single financial stress indicator (FSI) for Turkey adopting weekly data between April 2005 and December 2016. To do so, we compose 15 different FSIs using 14 variables that will represent five different markets, i.e. money market, bond market, foreign exchange market, equity market and banking sector. We aggregate these five different markets using variety of techniques, including principal component analysis (PCA), basic portfolio theory, variance equal weights and Bayesian dynamic factor model. We compare 15 different FSIs on the basis of their relation to and forecasting power of different variables such as the growth rate of industrial production, OECD business condition index and OECD composite leading indicator for Turkey. Our results suggest that there does not exist a simple best indicator for Turkey that will measure the financial systemic stress. Some indicators offer a good forecasting power for economic growth while others have a stronger correlation with the systemic risk. Therefore, we offer a final FSI for Turkey conducting a model averaging method via a rolling-correlation based weighting scheme to benefit from the information content of all the FSIs and observe that the final FSI successfully indicate the tension periods. |
| Keywords: | Financial stress indicators, Composite indicator of systemic stress, Principal component analysis, Bayesian dynamic factor model, Portfolio theory, Aggregation methods |
| JEL: | C32 C43 C52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1816&r=all |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University, ERF and IZA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effect of the level of English skills on the labour market outcomes of Turkish women, using data from the Adult Education Survey of 2007. By adopting a bivariate equation framework, we jointly model the effect of English skills on labour market status and, conditional on being a wage earner, on monthly earnings and occupational status. The multinomial equation that explains labour market status allows for a different effect of language knowledge on the probability of being employed, unemployed but actively looking for a job, an unpaid family worker or involved in household tasks. The results indicate that being proficient in English is conditionally associated with a higher probability of being employed as a wage earner and, to a lesser extent, unemployed but looking for a job, whereas it decreases the likelihood of being involved in household tasks. Moreover, there is a significant conditional correlation between having a high level of skills in English and earnings, which is only modestly reduced when job-related variables and (especially) occupation dummies are included as additional controls. Indeed, being proficient in English barely affects occupational status when selection into employment status is controlled for. Therefore, the knowledge of foreign languages (in this case English) seems to stimulate labour market participation and earnings capacity, but does not substantially affect the occupational position of women in the Turkish labour market. |
| Keywords: | English skills, females, labour market status, earnings, occupation. JEL classification: J16, J24, J31, O15, Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201901&r=all |
| By: | Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence about the university wage premium in Turkey, and is the first that displays its evolution between 2004 and 2015. The results suggest that a typical university-educated worker in the private sector, on average, earns more than a high school graduate by a factor of 1.5. On the other hand, the wage gap significantly narrows down throughout the period. The main reason behind the observed fall seems to be the rise in relative excess supply of university graduates. In particular, the evolution of university wage premium is shaped by the changes in supply and demand conditions. |
| Keywords: | University wage premium, college wage premium, relative excess supply, relative unemployment. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 I21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1808&r=all |
| By: | Fethi Ogunc; Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to contribute to the understanding of inflation dynamics in Turkey by estimating a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model. Our identification strategy is based on a set of zero restrictions and use of exogenous control variables. Main results are as follows: (i) Pass-through from exchange rate to inflation is stronger than that from import prices. Moreover, exchange rate and import price shocks spread over inflation very quickly (most of the adjustment is complete within 9 months), particularly faster for the latter, with the estimates being highly precise (the dispersion around median responses are relatively narrow). (ii) Economic growth has a significant but lagged effect on inflation, yet with a greater uncertainty compared to exchange rate and import price pass-through. (iii) The degree of nominal wage pass-through on inflation is estimated to be close to the degree of exchange rate pass-through, albeit with a longer transmission and a greater uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Cost pass-through, Bayesian vector autoregression |
| JEL: | C11 C15 C32 E31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1810&r=all |
| By: | Jale Minibas-Poussard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Jeanne Le Roy (EBS Paris); Turhan Erkmen |
| Abstract: | Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of individual variables (organization-based self-esteem (OBSE) and work locus of control (WLOC)) that have been suspected to intervene as moderators on the relationship between organizational justice and organizational commitment. Design/methodology/approach-Self-administered survey was completed by 272 bank employees in Istanbul, Turkey. Findings-The results of moderation analyses clearly indicated a significant effect of OBSE and WLOC on the link between justice perceptions and organizational commitment. People are more committed to organizations when they have high OBSE. WLOC together with OBSE moderated the relationship between procedural justice and organizational commitment: people engaged less in their organizations when they perceived low procedural justice and reported lower OBSE. This relationship was revealed only when external WLOC scores were high. Research limitations/implications-The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey and the sample was limited to 272 participants. These results show that managers should not only hire personnel with high OBSE but they also should provide a participative work atmosphere where employees can perform with all their potential and capacity that may help them reveal their internal WLOC. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed in the end. Originality/value-The study provides some valuable contributions to the existing body of literature by exhibiting the role of individual variables in the strong relationship between organizational justice and organizational commitment. The findings of the study also contribute to banking sector that has been critical and popular in Turkey since 2001. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative,Work locus of control Paper type Research paper,Organizational justice,Organizational commitment,Organization-based self-esteem |
| Date: | 2017–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01904419&r=all |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac; Abdullah Kazdal; Ibrahim Ethem Guney |
| Abstract: | [EN] Currency swap is a financial derivative that allows parties to transform assets or liabilities denominated in one currency into another one. This product has been widely utilized in global financial markets in order to manage foreign exchange liquidity and to conduct carry trade transactions. Besides, central banks and investors follow currency swap market for the purposes of valuing financial derivatives, estimating counterparty risk and inferring about monetary policy stance. Currency swap transactions have substantial amount of volume in Turkey and they are extensively used by the banks. Given its frequent use, it is crucial to interpret the information related to currency swap rates. However, currency swap rates are quoted as par-rate, which is the coupon rate that makes the value of all cash flows equal to the face value, and their interpretation is not straightforward. This note employs one of the most popular parametric methods, Nelson-Siegel model, for currency swap rates to form a zero-coupon currency swap yield curve. In this regard, we provide an approach to convert the quoted currency swap rates to zero-coupon currency rates. The estimation results show that the fitted and quoted currency swap rates are quite close to each other. Additionally, the zero-coupon swap rates are compared with forward implied rates for specific maturities since both products are quite similar in nature. Both rates are observed to move together, which shows the consistency of our estimations. Overall, we believe that the approach we adopt in this study provides a useful tool for investors and regulatory authorities. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1803&r=all |
| By: | Oguzhan Cepni; Ibrahim Ethem Guney; Doruk Kucuksarac; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [EN] Understanding the determinants of yield curve and its interaction with economic variables is quite crucial for both policymakers and investors. This note aims to explore the relation between yield curve and macroeconomic factors. To this end, firstly, the yield curve is depicted by a small number of unobservable factors, namely the level, slope and curvature, using Nelson-Siegel methodology for the 2006:02-2017:08 period. Rather than combining the yield curve factors with a few macroeconomic variables, a comprehensive dataset is set used, which is comprised of 164 global and domestic macroeconomic/financial variables. The principal components obtained under four categories (global variables, inflation, domestic financial variables, and economic activity) are incorporated into a Vector Autoregressive model together with the yield curve factors. Empirical results suggest that the level factor responds to shocks originated from inflation, domestic financial variables and global variables. Furthermore, the slope factor is affected by shocks in global variables, and the curvature factor appears to be influenced by domestic financial developments. Overall, the results indicate the significance of macroeconomic information on the yield curve, especially of domestic financial variables and global variables. Given the spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies of advanced countries, emerging market bond rates tend to be exposed to the swings in the global financial conditions, which weakens the monetary policy transmission in emerging countries. [TR] [TR] Getiri egrisinin belirleyicilerinin ve iktisadi degiskenlerle olan etkilesiminin anlasilmasi politika yapicilar ve yatirimcilar icin onem tasimaktadir. Bu notta, getiri egrisi ve makroekonomik faktorler arasindaki dinamik iliski incelenmektedir. Bu amacla ilk asamada getiri egrisi, 2006:02- 2017:08 donemi icin Nelson-Siegel yontemi kullanilarak seviye, egim ve egrilik faktorleri uzerinden ozetlenmistir. Uygulamada yaygin metot olan getiri egrisinin birkac makroekonomik gostergeyle iliskilendirilmesi yerine, kuresel ve yerel makroekonomik/finansal 164 seriyi iceren bir veri seti kullanilmistir. Getiri egrisi faktorleri ve dort sektorden elde edilen temel bilesenler arasinda vektor ozbaglanim analizi gerceklestirilmistir. Ampirik sonuclar, seviye faktorunun enflasyon gelismeleri, yerel finansal degiskenler ile kuresel degiskenlerden etkilendigine isaret etmektedir. Ek olarak, egim faktoru kuresel degiskenlerden, egrilik faktoru ise yerel finansal gelismelerden etkilenmektedir. Ozetle, sonuclar kuresel finansal degiskenler basta olmak uzere, makroekonomik degiskenlerin getiri egrisini onemli derecede etkiledigine isaret etmektedir. Geleneksel-olmayan para politikasi uygulamalarinin bulasicilik etkisi dikkate alindiginda, gelismekte olan ulke tahvil faizlerinin kuresel kosullardaki degisimlere duyarli oldugu ve bu durumun para politikasi aktarim mekanizmasini azalttigi gorulmektedir. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1802&r=all |
| By: | Christophe Muller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal paper of Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982), little decisive progress has been achieved in developing empirically efficient stochastic dominance criteria for multidimensional social welfare analysis. By proposing new axioms of 'Social Shock Sharing', this paper provides new intuitive justifications to imposing sign restrictions on partial derivatives of individual von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions. These new breakthrough findings are exploited to derive necessary and sufficient stochastic dominance criteria for multidimensional social welfare comparisons, up to the sixth order, at least. Equivalent results are derived in terms of multidimensional poverty conditions. Empirically powerful discriminatory criteria are obtained by combining all social shock sharing axioms up to some high order and by deriving a dimension reduction property. An application to Egypt at the beginning of the XXIst century demonstrates the practical substantial gain in discriminating power of the approach by revealing a unambiguous continual improvement in bivariate income-education social welfare over the studied period. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional welfare,stochastic dominance,temperance,risk sharing |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02005735&r=all |
| By: | Hulya Saygili; Kemal Turkcan |
| Abstract: | Developments in transportation technologies have facilitated and encouraged the international fragmentation of production by reducing transportation costs and ensuring that parts and components are delivered safely and timely within global production networks. The fact that the stages of the fragmented production processes have been placed in different distance and geographical locations created a demand for alternative modes of transportation. The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of fragmentation of production measured by parts and components trade on the choice of transportation mode including air, sea and road. By doing that, the paper attempts to account for the advantages/disadvantages of alternative transportation modes in short-medium-long distance trade. Using a detailed data set (HS-12 digit product level statistics for the 2000-2014 period and 188 countries) of Turkey’s machinery exports, we show that fragmentation of production plays a significant role in the selection of transportation mode. In particular, road transportation with good infrastructure is a significant trade facilitating mode of transportation to nearby trade partners, when trade involves P&C and light products. |
| Keywords: | Mode of transportation, Fragmentation of production, Global production networks, International trade, Turkey |
| JEL: | J21 J24 H56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1813&r=all |
| By: | Selcuk Gul |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the sensitivity of export demand to variations in foreign income and real exchange rate by examining the determinants of Turkish exports (excluding gold) with a demand side model. To minimize the aggregation bias caused by using aggregate export statistics, country level bilateral export data is employed. Real exchange rate developments are modeled asymmetrically by the nonlinear ARDL method (NARDL). This method allows examining whether the response of exports differs with respect to real exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Findings indicate that exports are significantly affected by real exchange rate developments for the countries to which almost half of Turkey’s total exports are made. Panel data estimations also confirm the long-run relationship between exports and real exchange rate. Standardized coefficient estimates indicate that income elasticity of exports is greater than real exchange rate elasticity of exports in absolute terms. In addition, there is evidence that real exchange rate developments induce asymmetrical effects on exports. Findings show that exchange rate elasticity of exports is greater during the periods when Turkish lira appreciates. |
| Keywords: | Export demand, Exchange rate elasticity, Nonlinear cointegration, Panel ARDL |
| JEL: | C22 C23 F14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1812&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Altan Aldan; Yusuf Kenan Bagir; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bir ekonomide is geciskenliginin seviyesi ve niteligi kaynaklarin etkin dagilimini ve buyumeyi etkileyen faktorlerden biridir. Verimli isveren-isci eslesmesine olanak taniyan geciskenlik calisanlarin yeteneklerine uygun sektorlerde calismasinin ve ucret artislarinin en onemli mekanizmasidir. Firmalar arasindaki bu geciskenlik ayni zamanda istihdamin verimliligi dusuk firmalardan yuksek firmalara kaymasini saglayarak sektorel verimliligin artmasini saglamaktadir. Bu calismada, Girisimci Bilgi Sistemi (GBS) verileri kullanilarak Turkiye’deki is geciskenliginin betimsel bir analizi yapilmaktadir. Is geciskenliginin erken yaslarda ve erkeklerde daha yuksek oldugu saptanmistir. Ayrica is degistirenlerin yaridan fazlasinin daha buyuk, daha verimli ve karliligi daha yuksek firmalara gectigi gozlenmistir. Imalat ve ticaret-ulastirma sektorlerinde sektor ici hareketliligin yogun oldugu, madencilik, insaat, kamu yonetimi, egitim ve saglik sektorlerinden ise diger sektorlere yogun gecis oldugu bulunmustur. [EN] The level and the quality of job mobility is one of the main determinants of the efficient allocation of resources in an economy. Job swithces that enable efficient employer-employee match are the major mechanisms through which wage raises occur. Job switches across firms also ease the reallocation of employment from low productivity firms to high productivity ones. This study makes a descriptive analysis of job mobility in Turkey using the Entrepreneur Information System data. We find that job mobility is higher at early ages and among men. We also find that the majority of job movers switch to larger, more productive and more profitable firms. Job mobility is intensive within the manufacturing and transportation sectors whereas employees in mining, construction, public administration, education and health industries are more likely to switch to jobs in other industries. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1808&r=all |
| By: | Defne Mutluer Kurul; Serap Ýnci Özyer Koca; Erdal Yýlmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Ulkeler maliye politikasindaki belirsizligi azaltmak amaciyla orta vadeli hedeflerini aciklamaktadir. Maliye politikasi hedefleri ilan edildikten sonra borclanma programi kamuoyuna aciklanmakta, bu sayede borclanma politikasi konusundaki ongorulebilirligin artmasina katkida bulunulmaktadir. Ulkemizde de yilin son ceyreginde, Yeni Ekonomi Programi (YEP) bunyesinde sonraki yila iliskin butce ongoruleri belirlenmekte, Hazine Finansman Programi o yil gerceklesmesi planlanan borc servisi ve finansman bilgilerini kamuoyuna sunmaktadir. Bu cercevede, gerceklesmesi planlanan borc servisi rakamlarina gore, 2019 yilinda ic borc cevirme oraninin yuzde 93,6 olmasi, dis borc cevirme oraninin ise yuzde 74,9 olarak gerceklesmesi beklenmektedir. Ancak planlanan butce hedefi veya borc servisinin sapmasi durumunda ic borc cevirme oraninin nasil bir patika izleyecegini bilmek oldukca onemlidir. Bu dogrultuda bu calismada, ic borc cevirme oranlarinin belirleyicileri analitik olarak incelenmekte ve ongorulerden farkli olusabilecek sapmalarin ic borc cevirme oranlarini nasil etkiledigi ortaya konulmaktadir. Buna ek olarak, olusturulan analitik cerceve kullanilarak, 2019 yilina iliskin finansman ve butce ongorulerine iliskin farkli senaryolar altinda ic borc cevirme oranlarinin nasil degistigi arastirilmaktadir. Bulgulara gore, 2019 yilinda ic borc cevirme oraninin dis borc cevirme oranina esnekliginin, faiz disi denge oranina olan esnekligine gore daha yuksek oldugu gorulmektedir.[EN] Most countries officially announce medium term targets in order to mitigate uncertainties regarding fiscal policy. Taking these targets as given, Treasuries declare a borrowing program at the beginning of each year to contribute to the predictability of the borrowing strategy. In Turkey, in the last quarter of each year, predictions on government budget and other macroeconomic indicators for the subsequent three years are announced in a program, named New Economy Program (NEP) as of 2018. Afterwards, Undersecretariat of Treasury of Turkey publishes Treasury Financing Program which presents debt service and financing information to be realized in the upcoming year. Accordingly, in 2019, domestic debt roll over ratio and external debt roll over ratio are expected to be 93.6 and 74.9, respectively. However, it is important to gauge in what direction the announced domestic roll over ratios can evolve in case the budget deficit and debt service deviate from the announced paths. In this study, we present an analytical framework to investigate the main determinants of domestic debt roll over ratio and the effect of the possible deviations of the budget deficit and total debt service from their predicted values. Further, considering the predictions on financing and budget for the year 2019, we calculate how domestic debt roll over ratio might change under alternative scenarios. Findings reveal that in 2019, the elasticity of domestic debt roll over ratio to external debt roll over ratio is higher compared to the elasticity to primary surplus. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1813&r=all |
| By: | Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Yusuf Kaplan |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye ekonomisinin ham petrol ithalat talebinin 2001C1 ve 2017C3 donemleri arasindaki kisa ve uzun vadeli gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri tahmin edilmistir. Elde edilen bulgular teorik olarak tutarli ve birbirini teyit eder mahiyettedir. Sonuclar, kisa vadede ham petrol ithalat talebinin gelire duyarli oldugunu, uzun vadeli denge iliskilerinde ise fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerinden her ikisinin de kismen onemli oldugunu ortaya koymustur. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1805&r=all |
| By: | Defne Mutluer Kurul; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Butce gerceklesmelerinin gerek ekonomik aktivite gerekse para politikasi acisindan izlenmesi ve saglikli degerlendirilmesi politika yapicilari ve konuyla ilgili diger ekonomik birimler acisindan onemli olmaktadir. Farkli zamanlarda yayimlanan merkezi yonetim butce buyukluklerine iliskin istatistikler arasinda, kapsam, muhasebelestirme yontemi ve zamanlamadan dolayi farkliliklar olusabilmektedir. Bu calismanin amaci, bu farkliliklari ortaya koymak ve butce buyukluklerinin hangisinin ne amacla takip edilmesi gerektigine dair paylasimda bulunarak maliye politikasina iliskin degerlendirmelerin daha saglikli bicimde yapilabilmesine katki sunmaktir. Calismada incelenen veri setlerinin her birinin bilgi icerigi farklilik gostermektedir; oyle ki maliye politikasi ve ekonominin genel gidisatinin degerlendirilmesine yardimci olmasi icin Merkezi Yonetim Konsolide Butce Istatistikleri’nin izlenmesi yol gosterici olurken, likidite ve borc yonetimi acisindan ise Hazine Nakit Dengesi’nin takip edilmesinin uygun olacagi ortaya konulmustur. Ayrica, Merkezi Yonetim Butce Dengesi ve Finansmani’ndan elde edilen nakit tampon (kasa/banka) verisinin, hazine borclanma stratejisi ile maliye politikasi uygulamasinin sonuclarinin izlenmesi icin faydali olacagi dusunulmektedir. [EN] With regards to economic activity and monetary policy, monitoring the impact of budget performance is an important issue for policy makers and economic agents. Statistical data may vary due to the difference in coverage, the variation of accounting treatment or timingof the data release. The aim of thisstudy is to revealthe differences between these datasets and to propose ways in which each dataset could be used to make reliable assessment on fiscal policy.Each of the datasets on budget figures has different information content; in fact Central Government Consolidated Financial Statistics should be monitoredin order to evaluate fiscal policy and economic activitywhereas analyzing Treasury Cash Realizationsis appropriate in order to evaluate debt and liquidity management. Moreover, the cash buffer series obtained from the Central Government Budget Balance and Financing provides valuable information regarding the government debt management strategy as well as the consequences of the fiscal policy implementations. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1809&r=all |
| By: | Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Ece Oral Cevirmez |
| Abstract: | [TR] Firmalarin karlarini belirleme sekli ekonomiye gelen soklarin uretime, fiyatlara ve dolayisiyla enflasyona ne yonde yansiyacagini etkileyen bir faktordur. Bu noktadan hareketle kar marjlarinin dinamiklerini anlamak enflasyon dinamiklerini anlamak acisindan onem tasimaktadir. Bu calismada, Borsa Istanbul (BIST)’da islem goren firmalarin donemsel finansal tablolari kullanilarak 1993-2018 donemi icin ceyreklik siklikta takip edilebilecek kar payi serisi turetilmis ve bu serinin konjonkture duyarliligi incelenmistir. Bulgular, kar payinin konjoktur yanlisi bir hareket sergiledigine isaret etmektedir. Ayrica kar payinin, disa acikligin arttigi ve enflasyonun geriledigi 2003 yilina kadar olan donemde azaldigi, daha sonra gorece yatay bir seyir izledigi gozlenmektedir.[EN] The way in which firms set prices as a mark-up over costs is a factor affecting how shocks in the economy translate into output, prices and thus inflation. In this framework, understanding the dynamics of the mark-up is crucial to understanding the dynamics of inflation. In this paper, we derive a profit margin series using income tables of companies that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market for the period 1993-2018 on a quarterly basis. We also examine the cyclical nature of the derived profit margins. Our results suggest that profit margins move procyclically. Moreover we observe that profit margins had declined until 2003, a transition period characterized with declining inflation and expansion in foreign trade. Thereafter profit margins followed a relatively flat trend. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1811&r=all |
| By: | Yasemin Erduman; Neslihan Kaya Eksi |
| Abstract: | [TR] Kuresel kriz sonrasinda Amerika Birlesik Devletleri (ABD) ve Avrupa ulkeleri basta olmak uzere gelismis ulke ekonomilerinde yasanan durgunluk, Turk ihracatcilarini yeni pazar arayislari ile Orta Dogu ve Afrika (ODA) bolgesindeki ulkelere yoneltmistir. Bu durum, mevcut ihracat agirlikli kuresel buyume endeksinde veri kisitlari nedeniyle daha sinirli oranda temsil edilen ODA bolgesi ulkelerinin temsil oraninin artirilmasi suretiyle dis talep gostergesinin guncellenmesi ihtiyacini dogurmustur. Bu calismada, ihracatimizda onemli paya sahip ODA ulkelerinin de aralarinda bulundugu toplam 17 yeni ulkenin ekonomik buyume verilerinin eklenmesiyle mevcut dis talep gostergesinin kapsami genisletilmektedir. Bu cercevede, kapsami genisletilen yeni gosterge ile anket yoluyla elde edilen diger dis talep gostergeleri karsilastirilmakta; ayrica Turkiye icin ihracat talep fonksiyonu modellenerek, mevcut ve yeni gostergeler kullanildiginda gelir esnekligi tahmininin nasil degistigi incelenmektedir. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1804&r=all |