nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒12‒17
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Social Security Entitlement in Maghreb Countries: Who is Excluded? Who is not Interested? By Walid Merouani; Claire El Moudden
  2. Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey By Jirasavetakul, La-Bhus Fah; Spilimbergo, Antonio
  3. The impact of the war in Yemen on artisanal fishing of the Red Sea By Al-Fareh, Ammar Mohammed
  4. Maritime Networks, Port Efficiency, and Hinterland Connectivity in the Mediterranean By Jean-François Arvis; Vincent Vesin; Robin Carruthers; César Ducruet; Peter De Langen
  5. Strategies for sustainable upgrading in global value chains: The Tunisian olive oil sector By Grumiller, Jan; Grohs, Hannes; Raza, Werner; Staritz, Cornelia; Tröster, Bernhard
  6. Strategies for sustainable upgrading in global value chains: The Tunisian textile and apparel sector By Grumiller, Jan; Azmeh, Shamel; Staritz, Cornelia; Raza, Werner; Grohs, Hannes; Tröster, Bernhard
  7. Churn and loyalty behaviour of Turkish digital natives By Guven, Faruk
  8. What are the determinants of labour productivity in Turkey By Munise Tuba Akta?
  9. Towards a new paradigm of “coopetitiveness” in emerging countries: Case of the Algerian Entrepreneurial Ecosystems By Abdelkader Baaziz
  10. Labor exports from Palestine to Israel: a boon or bane for the West Bank economy By Agbahey, J.; Siddig, K.; Grethe, H.
  11. Pass-through du taux d’intérêt au Maroc : Enseignements à partir de l’enquête trimestrielle sur les taux débiteurs By Bennouna , Hicham
  12. Voices From the Past: Working Conditions in Zonguldak Coal Basin During 1950?s By Ayca Erinc Y?ld?r?m
  13. Demand peaks and cost pass-through: a case of Irans's poultry market By Zamani, O.; Bittmann, T.; Loy, J.-P.
  14. Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Krediler ile Mevduatlar Arasındaki Açığın Kaynağı Nedir ? By yılmaz, Engin

  1. By: Walid Merouani (Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée pour le Développement); Claire El Moudden
    Abstract: The issue of whether informal jobs are chosen voluntarily by workers or as a strategy of last resort is controversial. Many authors recognize that the informal sector is heterogeneous and it is composed of workers who voluntary choose it and others who are pushed inside because of entry barriers to the formal sector (Günther & Launov, 2012). Using the SAHWA survey and discrete choice models, this article confirms the heterogeneity of the informal labor market in three Maghreb countries: Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Furthermore, this article highlights the profiles of workers who voluntarily choose informality, which is missing from previous studies. Finally, this article proposes policy recommendations in order to extend social security to informal workers and to include them in the formal labour market.
    Date: 2018–06–12
  2. By: Jirasavetakul, La-Bhus Fah; Spilimbergo, Antonio
    Abstract: Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we construct a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey and assess how it affects Turkish firms. To disentangle the issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, we use a difference-in-differences approach. In sectors with large irreversible investment EPU has a greater effect on growth, investment, and leverage. The results are robust to different definitions of investment irreversibility, lag structure, and selection of sectors.
    Keywords: diff-in-diff estimation; economic uncertainty; employment growth; firm-level; Investment Decisions; leverage strategies; policy uncertainty; sector-level; Turkey
    JEL: D80 E22 E66 L20 M51
    Date: 2018–12
  3. By: Al-Fareh, Ammar Mohammed
    Abstract: In March 2015, a military coalition formally led by Saudi Arabia began aerial bombardment on Yemen. The Saudi command declared that ‘Operation Decisive Storm’ was going to be a short campaign. Three and a half years later, the war continues. This study aims to identify marked changes in the socio-economic relations of artisanal fishing in Yemen since the onset of the war. It adopts a descriptive approach based on surveys, focus groups and comparative analysis. The study concludes that collaboration, solidarity, integration and partnership characterise the socio-economic relations of artisanal fishing and the communities of fishermen in the Red Sea coastal governorates of Yemen. The study reveals that damages from the war have affected all aspects of the artisanal fishing sector. It shows that damages from the ongoing war on the artisanal fishing sector have had a considerable impact on fishermen, fishing inputs, marine ecosystems, infrastructure, all parts of fishing operations, all stakeholders involved in fish processing and marketing and the development of the fishing sector.
    JEL: Q22
    Date: 2018–12
  4. By: Jean-François Arvis; Vincent Vesin; Robin Carruthers; César Ducruet (GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Peter De Langen (Industrial Engineering & Innovation Sciences - TU/e - Technische Universiteit Eindhoven)
    Abstract: For millennia, the Mediterranean has been one of the most active trading areas, supported by a transport network connecting riparian cities and beyond to their hinterland. The Mediterranean has complex trade patterns and routes--but with key differences from the past. It is no longer an isolated world economy: it is both a trading area and a transit area linking Europe and North Africa with the rest of the world through the hub-and-spoke structure of maritime networks. Understanding how trade connectivity works in the Mediterranean, and elsewhere, is important to policy makers, especially those in developing countries in the Mediterranean, concerned with the economic benefits of large investment in infrastructure. Better connectivity is expected to increase trade with distant markets and stimulate activities in the hinterland. This book is a practical exploration of the three interdependent dimensions of trade connectivity: maritime networks, port efficiency, and hinterland connectivity. Because of the complexity and richness of maritime and trade patterns in the Mediterranean, the research book combines both a regional focus and globally scalable lessons. This book is intended for a wide readership of policy makers in maritime affairs, trade, or industry; professionals from the world of finance or development institutions; and academics. It combines empirical analysis of microeconomic shipping and port data with three case studies of choice of port (focusing on Spain, Egypt, and Morocco) and five case studies on hinterland development (Barcelona; Malta; Marseilles; Port Said East, Egypt; and Tanger Med, Morocco).
    Date: 2018–10–22
  5. By: Grumiller, Jan; Grohs, Hannes; Raza, Werner; Staritz, Cornelia; Tröster, Bernhard
    Abstract: This policy note presents policy recommendations for a sustainable development strategy for the Tunisian olive oil sector in the context of the ongoing negotiations on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Tunisia and the EU. Against the backdrop of increasing local value added and ecological constraints, a sector development strategy should primarily focus on exploiting functional and product upgrading potentials in the EU and other end markets instead of increasing low value bulk exports.
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Grumiller, Jan; Azmeh, Shamel; Staritz, Cornelia; Raza, Werner; Grohs, Hannes; Tröster, Bernhard
    Abstract: This policy note presents policy recommendations for a sustainable development strategy for the Tunisian textile and apparel (T&A) sector in the context of the ongoing negotiations on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Tunisia and the EU. Against the backdrop of economic crisis and decreasing apparel exports to the EU, support for the T&A industry could be an important way to help reinvigorate the economy. A sector development strategy should primarily focus on functional and product upgrading potentials, linkage development as well as on export market and product diversification.
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Guven, Faruk
    Abstract: The mobile industry drives innovation and economic growth all over the world, thanks to the application industry, content providers and mobile handset producers and operators. With a very young and dynamic population and a remarkable 96 percent mobile penetration rate, Turkey is no stranger to this trend. Yes, this very segment – commonly referred to as digital natives – also poses a dilemma for telecom operators: a high rate of attrition or the churn phenomenon. This paper reports on an empirical examination of the churn and loyalty characteristics of digital natives in the Turkish context. We employ a large sample of youth and analyse their churn and loyalty likelihoods. Overall, we find convincing evidence that, by having a consumer-centric approach and knowing more about their individual customers, telecom operators can drive loyalty and prevent churn. The rise of big data and sophisticated analysis based on behavioral patterns implies that operators now have the tools they need to predict consumer behavior better than ever before.
    Keywords: Digital Natives,Churn,Loyalty,Consumer Behavior,Turkey,Mobile Services
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Munise Tuba Akta? (Anadolu University)
    Abstract: Labour productivity is seen as a significant determinant of welfare level in the long run. In this perspective,in the study focus on evaluating determinants of labour productivity.This study aims to reveal the determinants of Turkey?s aggregate labour productivity using annual data for the 1970-2015 period. We use vector autoregressive (VAR) model. In the study labour productivity is determined by real net capital stock, wage, secondary education, and trade openness, Johansen cointegration test results show that there is no cointegration between variables in the long-run. Granger casuality test results show that there is a casuality from secondary education to labour productivity in the short-run. There is also a casuality from wage to productivity in the short-run.
    Keywords: Labour Productivity, Turkey, VAR Analsyis
    JEL: J24
    Date: 2018–10
  9. By: Abdelkader Baaziz (IMSIC - Institut mediterranéen des sciences de l'information et de la communication - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon)
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to propose thinking tracks of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems based on a "Quintuple Helix" approach that overcomes the competitive partitions by founding a paradigm of "coopetition" and "coopetitiveness" through the "intelligent specialization" with a strong societal and economic impact. Indeed, the dominant vision in most of emerging countries calls the relationship between Entrepreneurial Ecosystems and their actors, exclusively in terms of competitiveness aspects by reproducing identically the North-American models unlinked to the environmental dissimilarities, such as entrepreneurial culture. However, it is important to enquiring about the spatiotemporal adaptability of this model in the emerging countries contexts, particularly through its uninhibited relationship to the concepts of individual success and failure as well as the ecosystems running based mainly on private financing from business angels, crowdfunding and venture capital investors. While the creation of a startup is administratively facilitated, the uncertainties of the environment put its sustainability in a severe test. The causes are numerous, we cite among others, the difficulty of these startups to fit into a multidisciplinary working mode, hence the necessity to integrate them in the value chain of an ecosystem where they answer efficiently to mutualized and specific R&D needs. That's why we propose to identify the main barriers to open innovation as well as the catalysts enabling the creation of the integrative entrepreneurial ecosystems. By borrowing the paradigm of the city, we highlight the "urbanized" ecosystem made up of "useful" and "specialized" blocks, integrated in the value chain of this ecosystem. We will show the viability of the proposed tracks through many cases of economic, societal and academic actions undertaken in Algeria in order to setting up a favorable environment of integrative entrepreneurial ecosystems.
    Keywords: Useful blocks,Specialized blocks,Urbanized ecosystem,Coopetitiveness,Coopetition,Quintuple Helix,Entrepreneurial ecosystem,Algerian entrepreneurial ecosystem,Ecosystem's Value Chain,Intelligent specialization,Mutualized R&D,Ambidextrous capabilities
    Date: 2018–11–09
  10. By: Agbahey, J.; Siddig, K.; Grethe, H.
    Abstract: Palestinian employment in Israel has benefited for a long time both Palestinian and Israeli economies. However, this win-win situation is hampered by the tight security-related restrictions introduced by Israel in the 1990s. Assuming that in a final settlement of the conflict those restrictions will be reduced, this paper uses a CGE framework including a new and comprehensive database to assess the effects of restoring the Palestinian employment in Israel to its pre-intifada level. The results show a strong reduction in Palestinian unemployment, strong welfare improvements for households and substantial changes in the composition of the labor force in the domestic labor market. Acknowledgement :
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2018–07
  11. By: Bennouna , Hicham (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between monetary policy decisions and retail lending rates using retail bank interest rates extracted from the quarterly survey conducted by Bank Al-Maghrib. The data covers the rates of new business loans for four market segments (real estate, short-term credit facilities and overdrafts, investment and consumption) broken down by institutional sector (households, non-financial firms and individual entrepreneurs) between 2006Q2 and 2017Q2. We examine the interest rate pass-through mechanism and the speed of adjustment using heterogeneous panel cointegration framework. Our findings suggest that there is a high degree of pass-through heterogeneity over bank products. The long-term pass-through for real estate and investment loans is complete. We reject the completeness hypothesis for short-term credit facilities and consumption loans. Corporate loans are priced more competitive than household and individual entrepreneur products. We find evidence of a homogeneous pricing policy in the long-run, however, the speed of adjustment and the mark-up seem to be heterogeneous across banks depending on their financial structure.
    Keywords: Taux d’intérêt de détail; Pass-through; Hétérogénéité; Modèle à correction d’erreur
    JEL: E43 E52 G21
    Date: 2018–12–11
  12. By: Ayca Erinc Y?ld?r?m (Bülent Ecevit University)
    Abstract: Zonguldak has a special importance in terms of labor history. The emergence of wage labor life in the city goes back to the Ottoman period. The demand on coal as a source of energy, has brought Zonguldak forward both in the Ottoman and Turkish Republican eras. Yet, the characteristics of the area have caused formations different than the mining experiences of the West European countries; the production in the mines were conducted by the rotational workers called as ?worker-peasant? who worked in cycles largely set according to the sowing and harvest times. This type of production has totally effected the miner?s both living and working conditions.The main aim of this research is to investigate the effects of the new socio-economical atmosphere of the post Second World War Era on the mine workers in Zonguldak. How the historical period between 1946-62 led to a transformation in the working and living conditions of mine workers, is the core issue of this study. The working system in the mines of Zonguldak and the methods of struggle that the miners have developed against the working conditions will also be among the main topics of this research.
    Keywords: Zonguldak, labor history, mine worker, working life, daily life
    Date: 2018–10
  13. By: Zamani, O.; Bittmann, T.; Loy, J.-P.
    Abstract: This article examines cost pass-through and pricing behavior for fresh poultry meat during periods of peak demand. The analysis is conducted on weekly poultry wholesale-retail price data collected in all provinces of Iran from 2010 to 2016. Two traditional festivals are identified as periods of peak demand. We use a panel co-integration framework to estimate pass-through elasticity and speed of adjustment during peak and off-peak periods. We find that wholesale and retail prices increase during these periods, while retail margins decline. We interpret these findings as increased retail competition during periods of peak demand. Moreover, our findings confirm a more sluggish price adjustment during these periods. Acknowledgement : This research was supported by Kiel University funding.
    Keywords: Marketing
    Date: 2018–07
  14. By: yılmaz, Engin
    Abstract: Turkish banking sector has realized serious reconstruction after the 2001 crisis. Turkish banks left to finance government debts and has turned to their intermediation activities . However, Turkish banks broke the traditional loans-deposits balance and led to situation that loans have surpassed the deposits in the system. This article tries to indicate that the growth of gap between loans and deposits in Turkish banking system results from cross curreny swap transactions and these transactions change the composition of Turkish banks’ liabilities in favour of FX liabilities.
    Keywords: Cross Currency Swap, Loans’ Growth, Non-Core Liabilities
    JEL: E50
    Date: 2018–09–01

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