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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "Although in the past decade the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has made important advances in terms of reducing extreme poverty and improving health, education and child survival indicators, progress has remained uneven across the region. Countries affected by conflicts and humanitarian situations (such as Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen) in particular have seen a reversal in child well-being indicators (UNICEF 2017a). In fact, child poverty in the region remains a critical concern. According to a recent study in 11 Arab countries, one in four children suffers from acute multidimensional poverty (LAS et al. 2017)". |
| Keywords: | Executive summary, children, right, social protection, MENA, analysis, legal, framework, child, rights, perspective |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:27&r=ara |
| By: | Dawood, Ali; Kinnucan, Henry |
| Abstract: | Dates are indispensable goods for people living in arid areas because of their nutritional value for the communities residing there. Market shares for date crops growing in the Middle East and North Africa are considerable. There are a big number of articles that estimate different kinds of elasticities for various types of goods produced in the Middle East and North Africa, but very few articles mention the estimation of demand elasticities of the most important agricultural commodities such as dates in these regions. In this article, a Rotterdam model is applied for world demand for dates with a particular focus on Iraq. Major exporters of dates are used with time-series data (1961-2013). The results show that date exports have become less price elastic. For instance, point estimates range from smallest to largest price effects, -0.31 for ROW to 0.03 for Iran. The own-price elasticities indicate that world demand of date is particularly sensitive to Tunisia date price (-0.99), also the world demand is sensitive in lower degrees to the rest of countries. The marginal budget share indicates Iraq has relatively a large marginal share, which is to be expected since it is, the largest supplier of date to the world, but significantly smaller for the rest of the countries. Moreover, the results shows that estimate income elasticities are positive, so date is a normal good. The expenditure elasticities suggests that there is a degree of expenditure proportionality (almost homothetic preferences) in the world demand of date, which indicates that the average budget share for each source may not vary with the level of total expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2018–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea18:266540&r=ara |
| By: | Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG); Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Fábio Veras Soares (IPC-IG); Rafael Guerreiro Osorio (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "The Overview of Non-contributory Social Protection Programmes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region through a Child and Equity Lens is the first of a series of four knowledge products about non-contributory social protection in the MENA region that are being produced by a partnership between the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) and UNICEF Middle East and North Africa Regional Office (MENARO)". (...) |
| Keywords: | Executive, Summary, Overview, Non-contributory, Social Protection, Programmes, Middle East, North, Africa, MENA, Child, Equity, Lens |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:25&r=ara |
| By: | Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG); Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Fábio Veras Soares (IPC-IG); Rafael Guerreiro Osorio (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "Through the definition of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), countries have acknowledged the importance of social protection for poverty reduction. Namely, target 1.3 of SDG 1, 'End poverty in all its forms everywhere', calls for the implementation of nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all to achieve substantial coverage of poor and vulnerable populations, including children, by 2030. By including childspecific indicators and targets, SDG 1 urges countries to place children at the centre of poverty reduction efforts and reinforces the need to assess the child-sensitivity of policies, incentivising countries to produce child-disaggregated and child-specific data on both poverty and social protection coverage". (...) |
| Keywords: | Overview, non-contributory, social protection, programmes, Middle East and North Africa, MENA, child, equity |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:24&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Reform momentum remains strong under Vision 2030. New reform initiatives are being rolled-out under the Vision Realization Programs (VRPs). Oil prices have risen over the past year and are positively affecting fiscal and external balances. Higher oil prices provide both an opportunity and a risk to the fiscal reforms. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Saudi Arabia; |
| Date: | 2018–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/263&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); Halil Ibrahim Keskin (Department of Econometrics, Cukurova University); Abidin Ozdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the public and private sector wage earners in Egypt and examines their wage distribution during 1998-2012 using Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. We estimate the public-private sector wage gap with Mincer wage equations both at the mean and at different quantiles of the wage distribution. In this process we take into account observable and unobservable characteristics of the individuals using the panel feature of the data with a fixed effects model. We address sector of employment selection issue for both males and females. We find that there is very little evidence of sample selection in our data. Therefore, we present both the selection corrected results and the results with no selection correction. We find a persistent public sector wage penalty for males and public sector wage premium for females in the face of extensive sensitivity checks. They are larger when unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account for males but insignificant for females. They are similar across the quantiles for males but, smaller at the top than at the bottom of the conditional wage distribution for females. We further examine the public sector wage gap over time and in different sub-groups according to age and education. The public sector wage penalty for males has decreased recently over time and is larger for the better educated and younger. We also find substantial regional differences in public sector wage gap for males. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector, Private Sector, Wage Gap, Gender, Sample Selection, Quantile Regression, Panel Data, Egypt. |
| JEL: | C21 C23 J16 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1814&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Halil İbrahim Keskin (Department of Econometrics, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey); Zeynel Abidin Özdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the public and private sector wage earners in Egypt and examines their wage distribution during 1998-2012 using Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. We estimate the public private sector wage gap with Mincer wage equations both at the mean and at different quantiles of the wage distribution. In this process we take into account observable and unobservable characteristics of the individuals using the panel feature of the data with a fixed effects model. We address sector of employment selection issue for both males and females. We find that there is very little evidence of sample selection in our data. Therefore, we present both the selection corrected results and the results with no selection correction. We find a persistent public sector wage penalty for males and public sector wage premium for females in the face of extensive sensitivity checks. They are larger when unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account for males but insignificant for females. They are similar across the quantiles for males but, smaller at the top than at the bottom of the conditional wage distribution for females. We further examine the public sector wage gap over time and in different sub-groups according to age and education. The public sector wage penalty for males has decreased recently over time and is larger for the better educated and younger. We also find substantial regional differences in public sector wage gap for males. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector, Private Sector, Wage Gap, Gender, Sample Selection, Quantile Regression, Panel Data, Egypt |
| JEL: | C21 C23 J16 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1811&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The recovery continues in a difficult environment. The recovery has proceeded broadly as expected in the Third Review, notwithstanding elevated socio-political tensions and a further increase in oil prices. Growth accelerated to 2.8 percent in the second quarter driven by agriculture and tourism, inflation decelerated to 7.5 percent in August, and the current account deficit for the first half of the year improved by one percent of GDP. However, investment remains weak, unemployment is high especially among the youth and women, and the Tunisians’ purchasing power is eroding. The fiscal deficit at end-July was lower than expected, reflecting the 2018 tax package and improved collection. The authorities met all Quantitative Performance Criteria and implemented two out of the three Structural Benchmarks due for the Fourth Review, notably the competitive central bank foreign exchange auctions. |
| Date: | 2018–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/291&r=ara |
| By: | Anda David (Agence Française de Développement & DIAL); Mohamed Ali Marouani (UMR « Développement et Société », IEDES / Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL); Charbel Nahas (Former Minister of Labor and Telecom, Lebanon); Björn Nilsson (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, UMR DIAL) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war-torn economy on the economy of a neighboring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labor market, the production apparatus, and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high-skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers is found. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labor market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long-term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, macroeconomic impacts of refugees, Syrian crisis, Lebanon |
| JEL: | E17 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201814&r=ara |
| By: | Ilyes Gritli (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Serge Rey (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Abstract: | On s'intéresse dans cet article à l'impact de la libéralisation du compte capital sur le développement financier en Tunisie, sur la période 1986-2014. En s'appuyant sur un modèle ARDL on estime les effets de court terme et de long terme des principaux déterminants du développement financier. Les résultats confirment en particulier l'existence d'une relation de cointégration/long terme qui lie positivement le développement financier au PIB par tête, à l'ouverture commerciale et à l'ouverture du compte capital, et négativement au taux d'inflation et à la mauvaise gouvernance/corruption Ces conclusions sont largement confirmées par des tests de robustesse qui reposent en premier lieu sur des méthodes d'estimation différentes (DOLS et FMOLS), et en second lieu sur une mesure alternative de l'ouverture du compte capital/financière (mesure de jure de Chinn et Ito, 2008). This paper addresses the empirical question of whether capital account openness/financial liberalization can help explain financial development in Tunisia over the 1986-2014 period. Various estimates were made by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Estimates show that the positive effect of capital account opening on financial development is much more important in the long term than in the short term, and these positive effects surpass those obtained for trade openness. Moreover, the results confirm the negative impact of corruption on the Tunisian financial system. Complementarily, robustness tests are realized. They confirm our previous results, on one side with DOLS and FMOLS alternative methods and on other side with an alternative measure of capital account openness proposed by Chinn and Ito (2008). |
| Keywords: | Capital account openness,Financial development,ARDL,Tunisia |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01880318&r=ara |
| By: | Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Amal Miftah (LEDa - DIAL - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Economie de la mondialisation et du développement - Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les facteurs explicatifs de la disparité de la demande d'éducation et de l'offre de travail des enfants en considérant les ménages avec et sans migrants internationaux. Il s'agit, en particulier, de mettre en évidence le rôle des transferts de fonds des migrants dans l'éducation et dans le travail des enfants marocains, à l'aide d'une enquête effectuée dans la région de Souss-Massa-Draa (Sud du Maroc). Nous traitons le problème d'endogéinité potentiel des transferts des migrants en utilisant la méthode des variables instrumentales. Nos résultats montrent que ces flux financiers ont un effet positif sur la proportion d'enfants scolarisés au sein des ménages migrants. De plus, le nombre d'enfants, qui cumulent emploi et scolarité, vivant dans des ménages migrants est nettement moins élevé par rapport à celui des enfants des ménages sans migrants. Nos résultats montrent aussi l'effet positif des transferts sur la scolarité des enfants pauvres. Il semble également que l'activité partielle des enfants ou des adolescents pauvres baisse, de manière significative grâce aux transferts financiers des migrants. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of remittances on child labor and demand of education using survey data on the Souss-Massa-Draa region (South of Morocco). Based on an instrumental variables probit model, we find a positive and significant effect of remittances on the investments in education. Furthermore, the number of children living in migrant households who accumulate employment and schooling is clearly less raised compared with the children of the households of group of control (non migrant households). Moreover, our results show the positive effect of remittances on the schooling of the poor children. It also seems that the partial participation of poor children or teenagers in work declines more significantly through migrant remittances. |
| Keywords: | Children time allocation,Education attainments,Propensity-Score Matching,Remittances,Morocco |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01880343&r=ara |
| By: | Sofiane Hazem; Serge Rey (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Abstract: | On s'intéresse à l'impact de la productivité sur la dynamique de la croissance économique en Algérie sur la période 1984-2015. Le premier objectif de cet article a été de mesurer cette productivité à la fois pour l'ensemble de l'économie et pour différents secteurs. On a ensuite procédé à des estimations originales du stock de capital en s'appuyant sur la méthode de l'inventaire permanent, ce qui a permis de déduire les évolutions de la productivité globale des facteurs. A partir de ces estimations, on montre que si globalement l'économie algérienne a connu d'assez bonnes performances en matière de croissance économique, cela a été plus le résultat d'une augmentation des facteurs de productions, essentiellement de la main d'oeuvre, que de la croissance de la productivité du travail qui a été très limitée. Ce résultat reflète en partie les faibles performances du secteur des hydrocarbures qui a connu une diminution de la productivité du travail depuis le début des années 2000, tandis que d'autres secteurs comme l'agriculture ont connu à l'inverse de forts gains de productivité. This paper addresses the empirical question of whether the productivity can help explain economic growth dynamics in Algeria over the 1984-2015 period. The first objective of this article is to measure productivity for both the economy as a whole and for different sectors. Then original estimates of the capital stock are made using the permanent inventory method, which led to inferring evolutions in total factor productivity. On the basis of these estimates, it is shown that while the Algerian economy as a whole has performed fairly well in terms of economic growth, this was more the result of an increase in production factors, i.e. labor force, than of labor productivity growth, which was very limited. This partly reflects the weak performance of the hydrocarbons sector, which has experienced a decline in labor productivity since the early 2000s, while other sectors such as agriculture have experienced strong productivity gains. |
| Keywords: | Growth rate,Algeria,hydrocarbons,labor productivity,TFP |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01880319&r=ara |
| By: | Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Amal Miftah (LEDa - DIAL - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Economie de la mondialisation et du développement - Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Le but de cet article est d'identifier les causes du retour des migrants marocains à leur pays. Pour cela, nous utilisons une base de données originale. Il s'agit d'une enquête réalisée en 2007 auprès de la communauté marocaine installée en France. L'enquête a été effectuée dans les principaux bureaux de poste de l'hexagone. Nous testons l'impact de chacune de nos variables explicatives sur la probabilité de retour à l'aide d'un modèle Probit. Les résultats montrent que le migrant type qui envisage retourner au pays est soit un jeune homme vivant seul (célibataire ou divorcé), n'ayant pas dépassé le niveau bac, appartenant à un ménage modeste (revenu entre1500 et 2000€), envoyant de l'argent régulièrement au Maroc pour sa famille et pour financer un projet, ayant accumulé de l'argent durant plusieurs années et enfin possédant une maison au Maroc (ou envisage de la construire). Soit un étudiant. This study aims to identify the causes of return migrations of Moroccan migrants to their home country, using an original database of migrants in France. The survey data were collected in the main post offices of Ile-de-France (metropolitan area) and Province. Using a probit model, the results show that migrants have a higher propensity to return to their home country if they are single (or divorced), young men who earn modest incomes (1500 –2000 €) and have attained less than the baccalaureate level of education. Other key factors are their decisions to send money regularly to their family living in Morocco and their accumulation of money in the host country from previous investments, as well as their status as a student. |
| Keywords: | Remittances,Return migration,Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation,Morocco |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01880345&r=ara |
| By: | Rafik Baccouche; Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Sami Mouley |
| Abstract: | L'objet de cet article est d'évaluer l'impact de la présence étrangère sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Cette analyse sera effectuée sur la base d'un panel d'entreprises manufacturières tunisiennes couvrant la période 1998-2004 issu de l'enquête annuelle des entreprises réalisée par l'Institut National de la Statistique en Tunisie. La méthode d'estimation des paramètres de la fonction de production retenue dans cette étude relève de l'approche proposée par Olley et Pakes (1996) en réponse au biais de simultanéité du à la corrélation instantanée qui existe entre les chocs de productivités inobservables et les facteurs de production. Nos résultats montrent que la présence étrangère a un effet négatif sur la productivité des entreprises tunisiennes. Certains auteurs attribuent cet effet négatif à une faible capacité d'absorption technologique des firmes locales . Nous avons cherché à tester cette hypothèse. Ainsi, l'effet spillover devient-il fonction de la capacité d'absorption. Selon nos estimations, l'effet spillover devient de plus en plus important au fur et à mesure que la firme se rapproche de la courbe d'efficience et devient positif lorsque sa capacité d'adaptation dépasse un certain seuil. Ce résultat implique que la présence étrangère dans un secteur peut s'avérer bénéfique pour les entreprises dotées de fortes capacités d'absorption. |
| Keywords: | Industries manufacturières tunisiennes,Fonction Cobb-Douglas,Estimation semi-paramétrique,Spillovers |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01880353&r=ara |