nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒10‒08
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. How do Stock Prices and Metal Prices Contribute to Economic Activity in Turkey? The Importance of Linear and Non-linear ARDL By Tursoy, Turgut; Faisal, Faisal; Berk, Niyazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad
  2. The Relations Between Unemployment and Entrepreneurship in Turkey: Schumpeter or Refugee Effect? By Apaydın, Şükrü
  3. The Effects of Hotel Development on Tourism industry: Evidence Iran By khanalizadeh, bahman; kakaei, hamid; daneshzad, ali
  4. Build it and they will come? Secondary railways and population density in French Algeria By Laura Maravall Buckwalter
  5. Exchange Rates and Export Behavior: Firm-level Evidence from Turkey By Nihan Nur Akhan; Anil Donmez; Refik Erzan; Tolga Umut Kuzubas
  6. The Effect of Military Expenditures on the Profit Rates in Turkey By Elveren, Adem Yavuz; Özgür, Gökçer
  7. The Complementarity of Irrigation Technology Adoption and Groundwater Development; Evidence from the Trifa Plain of Morocco By Hrozencik, R. Aaron; Burchfield, Emily; Manning, Dale; Frija, Aymen
  8. Customs Union between EU and Turkey: A Success Story to be Nurtured By Refik Erzan
  9. The Effect of Terrorism on Housing Rental Prices: Evidence from Jerusalem By Nadav Ben Itzhak
  10. An Adaptive Tabu Search Algorithm for Market Clearing Problem in Turkish Day-Ahead Market By Nermin Elif Kurt; H. Bahadir Sahin; K\"ur\c{s}ad Derinkuyu
  11. Exploiting Compulsory Crop Insurance for Assessing Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Israeli Citrus Program By Hag Yehia, Muamar; Finkelshtain, Israel; Bar Shira, Ziv; Bar Nahum, Ziv; Goodwin, Barry K.
  12. Discrimination positive territoriale dans l’éducation comme un pylône du développement économique: une analyse pour le cas du Maroc By El Alaoui, Aicha
  13. التصنيع قاطرة التنمية الشاملة في مصر By Attia, Sayed
  14. İnsani Finans ve Değerler By Korkut, Cem; Kar, Muhsin

  1. By: Tursoy, Turgut; Faisal, Faisal; Berk, Niyazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad
    Abstract: This study explores the association between stock prices, metal prices and economic activity, i.e. industrial production, for the Turkish economy for the period 1896M1-2016M12. The linear and non-linear analysis is conducted by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches. The combined cointegration approach is applied to test the robustness of the ARDL and NARDL approaches. The FMOLS, DOLS and CCR regressions are applied to examine the long-run effect of stock prices and metal prices on economic activity. The empirical results reveal that metal and stock prices have a positive impact on economic activity. Metal prices have a negative impact and economic activity has positive effects on stock prices. Furthermore, the NARDL model corroborates the findings obtained from the ARDL model. This paper presents policy guidelines to utilise metals as an economic tool to boost economic activity and stock prices.
    Keywords: Stock Price, Metals Price, Industrial Production, ARDL, NARDL
    JEL: C32 G12
    Date: 2018–09–08
  2. By: Apaydın, Şükrü
    Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to determine the relations between unemployment and entrepreneurship in Turkey. Thus, it is empirically investigated whether the effects of Schumpeter and Refugee are valid or not. In the study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag – ARDL method was adopted and Turkey’s 2000-2016 period data were used. The results of estimation show that there is an inverse relationship between entrepreneurship and unemployment. Accordingly, when the rate of entrepreneurship increases, unemployment decreases or vice versa. Causality is from entrepreneurship to unemployment. In other words, the while the Schumpeter effect is valid, it is concluded that the refugee effect is invalid.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Unemployment, ARDL Method, Turkey.
    JEL: C22 C51 E24 L26 O31
    Date: 2018–05
  3. By: khanalizadeh, bahman; kakaei, hamid; daneshzad, ali
    Abstract: Given the increasing number of international tourists and the growing role of the tourism industry in the economies of the country, identification of effective factors in attracting international tourists is more than necessary. Governments and the private sector need to identify the factors affecting the tourism industry in order to develop, compete and survive in the tourism industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting the attraction of international tourists to Iran using the ARDL test for the years 2015 to 1983. Therefore, the results of this study showed that the effect of all variables hotel development, merchandise trade, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product on international tourism In Iran, in the long-term and short-term positive and also bilateral relationship is between them. Also, the greatest impact on the increase in the number of tourists entering Iran is the real effective exchange rate and real GDP.
    Keywords: Hotel development; Real exchange rate; Tourism industry; ARDL; IRAN
    JEL: M21 O47
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Laura Maravall Buckwalter (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: "By the end of the 19th century, the Algerian railway network played a crucial role as an instrument for settlement expansion and colonial control. A growing amount of research shows that railway expansion at this time allowed previously marginalized regions to participate in international trade and thereby boosting growth. Yet few studies point out that it also increased marginalization and reinforced dual economies in areas that did not experience access to the infrastructure or that did not have the required economies to profit from and engage in international markets. This paper looks into the effect of gaining railroad access on the indigenous and settler population density in French Algeria during this period. By taking advantage of unique territorial population data at a sub-municipal level and digitized historical colonization maps in the Constantine region, it measures the effect of gaining railway access in relatively isolated areas – areas in which the infrastructure arrived later – using a differences- in-differences methodology. Results show that the indigenous population responded positively to railroad infrastructure only in those regions where settlers were already located while the settler density did not respond to the infrastructure. To provide an explanation, it then analyzes freight and passenger transport at a more detailed level. In line with literature on Algerian railways, the results suggest that the potential gains were restricted by tariffs, which mirrored Constantine’s difficulty to engage in scale economies due to geographical restrictions, such as the limited fertile land and the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate."
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2018–04
  5. By: Nihan Nur Akhan; Anil Donmez; Refik Erzan; Tolga Umut Kuzubas
    Date: 2018–02
  6. By: Elveren, Adem Yavuz; Özgür, Gökçer
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of military expenditure on the rate of profits in Turkey during the period of 1950–2008 by employing a Markov-switching autoregression model within a Marxist framework for the first time. Findings show that the effect of military expenditure on profit rates is nonlinear—negative during turbulent years and positive in more tranquil years. The negative effects are larger than positive effects, but the probability of positive effects prevailing is larger.
    Keywords: military expenditures; profit rate; Turkey
    JEL: B5 B51 H5
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Hrozencik, R. Aaron; Burchfield, Emily; Manning, Dale; Frija, Aymen
    Keywords: Natural Resource Economics, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Productivity Analysis and Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2018–06–20
  8. By: Refik Erzan
    Date: 2018–03
  9. By: Nadav Ben Itzhak
    Abstract: This research investigates the effect of terrorism on housing rental prices. September 2015 was the beginning of a new large-scale terror wave in Israel, hitting Jerusalem more than any other major city. Considering this terror wave as an exogenous shock to the housing rental market in Jerusalem, this study analyzes its effect on rental prices compared to Tel-Aviv and within Jerusalem. Immediately after the beginning of the terror wave, rental prices in Jerusalem declined, compared to Tel-Aviv, reaching a 2%-3% decrease within a year. Within Jerusalem, the results indicate that proximity of an additional one kilometer to suspected origins of terror incidents, such as the Green Line and Damascus Gate, resulted in a 0.3%-0.4% decline in rental prices.
    Date: 2018–09
  10. By: Nermin Elif Kurt; H. Bahadir Sahin; K\"ur\c{s}ad Derinkuyu
    Abstract: In this study, we focus on the market clearing problem of Turkish day-ahead electricity market. We propose a mathematical model by extending the variety of bid types for different price regions. The commercial solvers may not find any feasible solution for the proposed problem in some instances within the given time limits. Hence, we design an adaptive tabu search (ATS) algorithm to solve the problem. ATS discretizes continuous search space arising from the flow variables. Our method has adaptive radius and it achieves backtracking by a commercial solver. Then, we compare the performance of ATS with a heuristic decomposition method from the literature by using synthetic data sets. We evaluate the performances of the algorithms with respect to their solution times and surplus differences. ATS performs better in most of the sets.
    Date: 2018–09
  11. By: Hag Yehia, Muamar; Finkelshtain, Israel; Bar Shira, Ziv; Bar Nahum, Ziv; Goodwin, Barry K.
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty, Demand and Price Analysis, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis
    Date: 2018–06–20
  12. By: El Alaoui, Aicha
    Abstract: Education remains at the heart of political and economic debates in Morocco. The main issues facing Morocco are: How to generalize and standardize the education system throughout its territory? How to improve the quality and efficiency of his teaching in Morocco? The level of economic development remains fragile and sensitive, marked by an unfair development between the 12 Moroccan regions. For this purpose, also treated what is supposed to be unequal is unfair. We must abandon the principle of equal treatment of students throughout the country. This is obviously to compensate for the initial inequalities. Putting this policy in the name of equity seems socially just. Educational justice means not only the same educational policies but also equal access and results. An egalitarian system must focus on improving the quality of schools serving the poorest regions of the country and the poorest classes in society. The reason is simple: a well educated and well cared population will be more productive, which is a source of continuous growth that can benefit everyone. For this reason, the starting point is to establish a unique school, carrying the ideals of freedom, equality, solidarity, principles of citizenship, secularism, respect for others, universalism and unit. In addition, it is necessary to introduce digital into the education system and to diversify and encourage language learning (in addition to two official languages) such as English, Japanese,or Chinese.
    Keywords: Territorial positive discrimination; Educational justice; Equity and Equality; Economic and social development
    JEL: A20 D63 I18
    Date: 2018–05
  13. By: Attia, Sayed
    Abstract: Abstract: Industrialization is considered the cornerstone of the comprehensive development in Egypt for many reasons. First, industrialization has strong backward and forward linkages with other key economic activities such as agriculture and services. Second, industrialization provides job opportunities particularly in labor-intensive industries. Third, industrialization is a motive for technology transfer and investment attraction. Fourth, industrialization contributes in deepening Egypt’s pace towards more integration in the global economy. This paper discusses the importance of industrialization in achieving the comprehensive development and introduces the definition of development and its objectives, industrialization concept and its goals, industry modernization and the pillars of such modernization. Most importantly, the paper refers to Egypt’s industrial strategies, the cause of the failure of shift from import-substitution strategy to export-oriented strategy. Furthermore, the paper handles the opportunities and challenges of industrialization in Egypt. It ends with some recommendations.
    Keywords: اey Words: Industrialization, comprehensive development, industry modernization, industrial strategies.
    JEL: O14 O3
    Date: 2016–12–28
  14. By: Korkut, Cem; Kar, Muhsin
    Abstract: Finans sektörü veyahut finansal sistem denildiğinde çoğu insanın aklına bankalar gelmektedir. İnsanların birikimlerini değerlendirmek için kullandıkları bankalar, bu birikimleri ihtiyacı olanlara belirli bir faiz yahut kâr payı ile tahsis edip bir nevi fon akışı sağlamaktadır. Bu sistemde sadece bankalar yoktur. Finansal Kiralama Şirketleri, faktoring ve finansman şirketleri de finansal sistem içerisinde yer alan diğer kurumlardır. Fakat tüm bu kurumların temel işlevleri aynı temel prensip ile çalışmaktadır. Bu temel ilke, fazla birikimleri toplamak, toplanan birikimleri ihtiyacı olanlara kullandırmak, fazla birikimleri olanlara ödenen faiz veya kâr payı ile bu birikimleri kullananlardan alınan faiz veya kâr payı arasındaki farktan kâr elde etmeye dayanmaktadır. Her ne kadar bankacılık finansal sistemin temelini oluşturuyor olsa da bankacılık dışı finansal sektör de tüm dünyada hızlı bir şekilde gelişmektedir. Görevi sadece toplanan fonları değerlendirmek ve ihtiyacı olanlara borç olarak çeşitli yol ve yöntemler ile vermek olan finansal sistem sadece finans boyutu ile sınırlı kalmamaktadır. Dünyada finansal sektörün boyutu ve etkisi yüksek oranlara ulaşmıştır. Özellikle sermaye hareketleri finansal sisteme entegre olmuş gelişmekte olan ülkeleri fazlasıyla etkilemekte ve ekonomik olarak büyümeyi teşvik edici yönleri olduğu gibi dışa açıklık dış finansal operasyonlara da açıklığı beraberinde getirmektedir. Ülke içerisindeki enflasyon seviyesi, faiz oranı ve döviz kuru, küresel finansal sistemdeki değişikliklere, sermaye hareketlerine veyahut ülkeye yapılan finansal operasyonlara bağlıdır. Dolayısı ile dünyada finansal sistemi yani sermayeyi elinde tutanların gücü sadece iktisadi anlamda değil aynı zamanda siyasal anlamda da yüksektir. Özellikle ülke içerisindeki siyasi seçimler iktisadi hayatla yakından ilişkiliyken sermaye sahiplerinin ekonomik hayata rahatlıkla müdahale edecek bir güce ulaşmaları ahlaki sorunlar kadar egemenlik sorunlarını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Niceliksel büyümeler beraberinde niteliksel düzenlemeleri ve kontrolü getirmediği için dünyada yaşanan 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi ve 2001 yılında Türkiye’de yaşadığımız finansal kriz gibi kontrolün tamamen piyasaya bırakılmasının yol açtığı sadece finansal sektörle sınırlı kalmayarak tüm sektörleri içerisine alan iktisadi ve sosyal hayata da olumsuz etkilerini gördüğümüz krizler ile karşılaşmak kaçınılmaz olmuştur.
    Keywords: İnsani Finans İslami Finans İslami Bankacılık İslam İktisadı İslam Ekonomisi Değerler Humanitarian Finance Islamic Finance Islamic Banking Islamic Economics Values
    JEL: G29 P4 P5 Z12
    Date: 2018–02–01

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