nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒07‒09
eleven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. A Tale of Three Crises in Turkey: 1994, 2001 and 2008–09 By Hasan Cömert; Erinç Yeldan
  2. Associating Turkey with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A costly (re‐) engagement? By Altay, Serdar
  4. Women's political participation and intrahousehold empowerment: Evidence from the Egyptian Arab Spring By Olivier Bargain; Delphine Boutin; Hugues Champeaux
  5. Do Contemporary Plays Feature Fewer Roles? Some Empirical Evidence By Sacit Hadi Akdede; Victor Ginsburgh; Aynur Uçkaç
  6. Estimating the Welfare Costs of Reforming the Iraq Public Distribution System: A Mixed Demand Approach By Nandini Krishnan; Sergio Olivieri; Racha Ramadan; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
  7. The Lights of Iraq: Electricity Usage and the Iraqi War-fare Regime By Cerami, Alfio
  8. Estimating Trade-Related Adjustment Costs in the Agricultural Sector in Iran By Omid Karami; Mina Mahmoudi
  9. No Lost Generation: Supporting the School Participation of Displaced Syrian Children in Lebanon By Jacobus De Hoop; Mitchell Morey; David Seidenfeld; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
  10. Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Tarafından Alınan Sendikasyon Kredilerinde Spreadi Belirleyen Faktörler By Pişkin, Fatih
  11. Kamuda Yenilik: İstanbul’daki Kamu Kurumları Üzerinden Bir Araştırma By Pişkin, Fatih

  1. By: Hasan Cömert (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Erinç Yeldan (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: Developing countries have encountered many economic crises since the 1980s, due mainly to structural problems related to their integration into the global economy. The Turkish economy is by no means an exception, and suffered significantly from the crises of 1994, 2001 and 2008–09. This paper investigates the tales of these three crises to shed light on the propagation mechanisms of crises and their implications for developing countries, given the Turkish experience. Our study is aiming at complementing existing studies by giving a very broad comparative picture of the main macroeconomic trends before and after the crises at the expense of ignoring many important details explained in other studies. This comparison can be also useful for understanding possible (and under current conditions highly unavoidable) implications of current developments in Turkish economy. Although there are many differences in the emergence of recent crises in Turkey, significant similarities can be found between the 1994 and 2001 crises. The crisis of 2008–09 can be considered exceptional in many aspects. The first two episodes were deemed to be mostly finance-led and finance-driven, with repercussions on the real sectors thereafter; but the 2008–09 crisis was a fully-fledged real sector crisis from the beginning, amid a direct collapse in employment and real economic productivity.
    Keywords: Turkish Economy, Developing Countries, Crises
    JEL: F32 E63 E66 G01
    Date: 2018–06
  2. By: Altay, Serdar
    Abstract: Policy debate on the implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for Turkey has focused almost exclusively on “how” Turkey can/will take part in a forthcoming transatlantic deal. Turkey's association with a TTIP has largely been conceived as an inevitable and beneficial policy choice to re‐engage Ankara with the Atlantic alliance and emerging transatlantic trade framework. The arguments for extending TTIP to Turkey have mostly been built upon a conventional understanding of preferential trade agreements. The debate has not provided a comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits for Turkey's exclusion from or joining TTIP as it dismissed multiple dimensions of the “deep integration” agenda which underpinned the transatlantic talks. This paper intends to contribute to the “why” debate with a thorough analysis of critical issues on the transatlantic agenda by evaluating economic and policy implications of TTIP both for exclusion and association scenarios together with associated compliance and adjustment costs.
    Keywords: TTIP, Turkey, Preferential Trade Agreements
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Hyejin Cho (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In examining the global imbalance by the excess liquidity level, the argument is whether commercial banks want to hold excess reserves for the precautionary aim or expect to get better return through risky decision. By pictorial representations, risk preference in the Machina's triangle (1982, 1987) encapsulates motivation to hold excess liquidity. This paper introduces an endogenous liquidity model for the financial sector where the imbalance argument comes from credit rationing extended from outside liquidity (Holmstrom and Tirole, 2011). We also conduct a stylistic analysis of excess liquidity in Jordan and Lebanon from 1993 to 2015. As such, the proposed model exemplifies the combination of credit, liquidity and regulation.
    Keywords: credit rationing, excess liquidity, inside liquidity, risk preference,E58,L51
    Date: 2017–04–10
  4. By: Olivier Bargain (UB - Université de Bordeaux); Delphine Boutin (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hugues Champeaux (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Egyptian women have played an unprecedented role in the Arab Spring democratic movement, possibly changing women’s perception about their own rights and role. We question whether these events have translated into better outcomes within Egyptian households. We conjecture that potential changes must have been heterogeneous and depended on the local intensity of protests and women’s participation over 2011-13. We exploit the geographical heterogeneity along these two margins to conduct a double difference analysis using data surrounding the period. We find a significant improvement in women’s final say regarding decisions on health, socialization and household expenditure, as well as a decline in the acceptation of domestic violence and girls’ circumcision, in the regions most affected by the protests. This effect is not due to particular regional patterns or pre-existing trends in empowerment. It is also robust to alternative treatment definitions and confirmed by triple difference estimations. We confront our main interpretation to alternative mechanisms that could have explained this effect.
    Keywords: Arab Spring, Revolutions, Gender, Empowerment, Egypt.
    Date: 2018–05–31
  5. By: Sacit Hadi Akdede (Department of Public Finance, Adnan Menderes University); Victor Ginsburgh (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles); Aynur Uçkaç (Department of Public Finance, Adnan Menderes University)
    Abstract: This paper shows that the number of roles in theatre plays has been decreasing over time. Playwrights seem to internalize the costs of producing plays with too many roles by downsizing. This downsizing is not a recent phenomenon: it is going for many decades. We also analyze which plays get produced. This paper uses a unique data set of repertory archives of Turkish State Theatres, covering plays from decades.
    Keywords: Number of roles, cast size, Baumol cost disease, playwrights, Turkish State Theatre
    Date: 2018–06
  6. By: Nandini Krishnan; Sergio Olivieri; Racha Ramadan; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: Iraq’s public distribution system (PDS) is the only universal non-contributory social transfer system in the world. Through three decades of conflict and fragility, food rations delivered through the PDS have remained the single largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding its heavy dependence on imports and associated economic distortions as well as an unsustainable fiscal burden. The fiscal crisis since mid-2014 has, however, put PDS reform back on the agenda. In this context, this paper employs a mixed demand approach to analyse consumption patterns in Iraqi households and quantify the welfare impact of a potential reform of the PDS in urban areas. The results of the ex ante simulations show that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poorest quintiles, and that these goods are normal goods. Cross-sectional comparisons suggest that, with improvements in welfare, and with well-functioning markets, some segments of the population are substituting away from the PDS and increasing their consumption of market substitutes. Overall, the results suggest that any one-shot reform will have adverse and sizeable welfare impacts. The removal of all subsidies in urban areas will require compensating poor households by 74 per cent of their expenditures and the richest households by nearly 40 per cent to keep welfare constant. However, a targeted removal of the top 4 deciles from PDS eligibility in urban areas will leave poverty rates unaffected and generate cost savings, but will need to be carefully communicated and managed to counter public discontent.
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Cerami, Alfio
    Abstract: This article explores the lights of Iraq, Iraq's variety of capitalism (VoC) and its system of public and fiscal governance. The first section examines Iraq's VoC, which I define oil-led state-captured capitalism with associated oil-led state-captured war-fare regime. In formerly ISIS-occupied territories, war developments turned the system into an Insurgent ISIS-captured capitalism with associated Insurgent ISIS-captured war-fare regime. The second section investigates electricity usage. The nighttime lights analysis is based on near real-time big data. It includes high-resolution remote-sensing and satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observatory. I use the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi NPP satellite. Data on greenhouse gases are obtained through the AQUA and TERRA satellites derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. I also use the AURA satellite with the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) sensor, as well as the TERRA satellite with the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) sensor. The third part discusses the repercussions of electricity usage for good governance, for good regulatory and for good fiscal practices, as well as for development and growth. The concluding part briefly discusses the “taxman approach” and the introduction of a new fiscal contract necessary to resolve negative incentives in oil-led war economies.
    Keywords: Iraq, political economy, ISIS, geo-spatial analysis, night lights, remote-sensing, satellite imagery, public governance, fiscal governance, oil-led state-captured capitalism, oil-led state-captured war-fare regime, state capture, policy capture.
    JEL: C1 O11 O12 P16 P45
    Date: 2018–06–11
  8. By: Omid Karami; Mina Mahmoudi
    Abstract: Tariff liberalization and its impact on tax revenue is an important consideration for developing countries, because they are increasingly facing the difficult task of implementing and harmonizing regional and international trade commitments. The tariff reform and its costs for Iranian government is one of the issues that are examined in this study. Another goal of this paper is, estimating the cost of trade liberalization. On this regard, imports value of agricultural sector in Iran in 2010 was analyzed according to two scenarios. For reforming nuisance tariff, a VAT policy is used in both scenarios. In this study, TRIST method is used. In the first scenario, imports' value decreased to a level equal to the second scenario and higher tariff revenue will be created. The results show that reducing the average tariff rate does not always result in the loss of tariff revenue. This paper is a witness that different forms of tariff can generate different amount of income when they have same level of liberalization and equal effect on producers. Therefore, using a good tariff regime can help a government to generate income when increases social welfare by liberalization.
    Date: 2018–06
  9. By: Jacobus De Hoop; Mitchell Morey; David Seidenfeld; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: This paper documents the impact of a cash transfer programme – an initiative of the Government of Lebanon, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP), widely known as the No Lost Generation Programme (NLG) and, locally, as Min Ila (‘from to’) – on the school participation of displaced Syrian children in Lebanon. The programme provides cash to children who are enrolled in the afternoon shift of a public primary school. It was designed to cover the cost of commuting to school and to compensate households for income forgone if children attend school instead of working, two critical barriers to child school participation. We rely on a geographical regression discontinuity design comparing children living in two pilot governorates with children in two neighbouring governorates to identify the impact of the programme halfway in the first year of operation (the 2016/17 school year). We find limited programme effects on school enrolment, but substantive impacts on school attendance among enrolled children, which increased by 0.5 days to 0.7 days per week, an improvement of about 20 per cent over the control group. School enrolment among Syrian children rose rapidly across all of Lebanon’s governorates during the period of the evaluation, resulting in supply side capacity constraints that appear to have dampened positive impacts on enrolment.
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Pişkin, Fatih
    Abstract: Sendikasyon kredilerinde uygulanan faiz oranı iki bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölüm, baz olarak alınan, Libor ya da Euribor gibi uluslararası kabul görmüş değişken bir faiz oranı iken, ikinci bölüm bu baz oranının üzerine eklenen ve uluslararası literatürde spread olarak adlandırılan sabit bir faiz oranıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankalar tarafından 2003-2012 yılları arasında alınmış olan sendikasyon kredilerinde, spreadin belirlenmesinde etkisi olan değişkenlerin neler olduğunun tespit edilmesidir. Spread üzerinde belirleyici olduğu düşünülen değişkenler beş ayrı grupta ele alınmıştır: küresel, makroekonomik, borçlu, sözleşme ve sendikasyon grubu değişkenleri. Elde edilen sonuçlar küresel finansal koşullardaki değişimlerin spreadi belirlemede etkili olduğunu; çoğunlukla yabancı bankalardan oluşan borç verenlerin, sendikasyon kredilerinin Türk bankacılık sektörü ve Türkiye’nin yurtdışı borçlanması içerisindeki payının oldukça sınırlı olmasına rağmen, fiyatlamada makroekonomik koşulları da dikkate aldıklarını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, borçluya ait özelliklerin de spread üzerinde etkili olduğu, kredi özelindeki sözleşme koşullarının ve sendikasyon grubunun yapısına dair değişkenlerin ise belirleyici olmadıkları sonucuna varılmıştır.
    Keywords: spread, sendikasyon kredileri, kredi fiyatlaması, bankalar
    JEL: F34 G21 G23
    Date: 2016–12–01
  11. By: Pişkin, Fatih
    Abstract: Bu çalışma kamuda yeniliğin amaçlarını, itici güçlerini ve önündeki engelleri belirlemeyi ve İstanbul’daki kamu kurum ve kuruluşlarının yenilik alanındaki mevcut durumlarını ortaya koymayı hedeflemektedir. Bu amaçla geliştirilen anket formu İstanbul’daki kamu kurum ve kuruluşlarına gönderilerek cevaplamaları istenmiştir. En çok gerçekleştirilen yenilik türünün hizmet yeniliği olduğu ve büyük kurumların küçük kurumlara göre daha yenilikçi oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yenilik faaliyetlerinin sadece %17'si işbirliği yapılmaksızın kurum bünyesinde gerçekleştirilirken, en çok işbirliği özel sektör ile yapılmıştır. Kurumların %31,5’inin yürüttükleri yenilik faaliyetleri ya da projeleri için finansal desteklerden yararlanırken, genç personele sahip kurumların desteklerden daha fazla yararlandığı belirlenmiştir. Yenilik faaliyetlerinde bilginin kaynağı olarak kurum içi kaynakların kurum dışı kaynaklara kıyasla daha önemli bir yere sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Benzer bir durum yenilik faaliyetlerinin arkasındaki itici güçlerin değerlendirilmesinde de ortaya çıkmaktadır. Kamuda yeniliğin önündeki engellerin başında kurumlarda yeniliği destekleyen ödül ve teşvik mekanizmalarının olmaması gelmektedir. Kamu kurumlarında uzun vadeli plan yapmanın zorluğu, bürokratik idari yapılanma ve finansal kaynakların yetersizliği, yeniliğin önündeki diğer başlıca engeller olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Kamu kurumlarında yeniliğin çoğunlukla kamu hizmetlerinde etkinliğin artırılması, hizmet kalitesinin ve kullanıcı memnuniyetinin artırılması ve idari işlem yükünün azaltılması amaçlarıyla gerçekleştirildiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
    Keywords: Yenilik, Hizmet Yeniliği, Yenilik Ekosistemi, Yenilik Performansı, İnovasyon, Kamu
    JEL: O30 O38 O39
    Date: 2017–07

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