nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒06‒18
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Effect of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey By Aras, Osman Nuri; Öztürk, Mustafa
  2. Non-contributory social protection through a child and equity lens in Algeria By International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth
  3. Women's Political Participation and Intrahousehold Empowerment: Evidence from the Egyptian Arab Spring By Bargain, Olivier; Boutin, Delphine; Champeaux, Hugues
  4. The role of zakat in the provision of social protection: a comparison between Jordan, Palestine and Sudan By Charlotte Bilo; Anna Carolina Machado
  5. Non-contributory social protection through a child and equity lens in Djibouti By International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth
  6. Islamic Republic of Mauritania; Economic Development Documents By International Monetary Fund
  7. La mesure du chômage au Maroc : rien n’est moins sûr By Y. Tamsamani, Yasser

  1. By: Aras, Osman Nuri; Öztürk, Mustafa
    Abstract: The effects of the main macroeconomic determinants on the sovereign credit rating of Turkey assigned by Standard & Poor’s are analyzed in this paper. As the main macroeconomic determinants, inflation rate, economic growth rate, foreign direct investment, external debt, current account debt and savings are taken into account in this study. The data related to Turkey in this study covers between 1992-2016. In this study, the Granger causality test and the OLS regression model are used for that correlations of the variables. Outcomes of the analysis show that just two in six macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit rating. According to the results of the study, external debt and inflation rate have a statistically significant relationship with the sovereign credit rating of Turkey. The outcomes show that external debt and the inflation rate have negative effects on the sovereign credit rating of the country. The coefficient of the external debt and the inflation is negative which means that if the inflation or external debt increases the rating decreases in appropriate with the theory. On the other hand, the effects of the other four macroeconomic variables are not significant. The results of the study indicate that some factors other than the primary macroeconomic determinants are effective on the sovereign credit ratings of Turkey. The results also unveil the door for the criticism that the decisions of the credit rating agencies are biased.
    Keywords: Sovereign risk, Sovereign credit rating, Credit rating agencies, Macroeconomic determinants, Turkey.
    JEL: E02 F30 G20 G24 G29
    Date: 2018–05–01
  2. By: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Algeria is located in North Africa, on the Mediterranean coast. In 2016, around 33 per cent of the country's 40.6 million inhabitants were younger than 18 years, and 11.6 per cent were younger than 5. With a Human Development Index of 0.745, Algeria ranks in the 'high human development' category (83rd out of 188 countries). In 2011, 5.5 per cent of the population lived below the national poverty line. Poverty levels tended to be higher in urban areas (5.8 per cent) than in rural areas (4.8 per cent)". (...)
    Keywords: Non-contributory, social protection, child, equity, lens, Algeria
    Date: 2018–05
  3. By: Bargain, Olivier (University of Bordeaux); Boutin, Delphine (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Champeaux, Hugues (CERDI, University of Auvergne)
    Abstract: Egyptian women have played an unprecedented role in the Arab Spring democratic movement, possibly changing women's perception about their own rights and role. We question whether these events have translated into better outcomes within Egyptian households. We conjecture that potential changes must have been heterogeneous and depended on the local intensity of protests and women's participation over 2011-13. We exploit the geographical heterogeneity along these two margins to conduct a double difference analysis using data surrounding the period. We find a significant improvement in women's final say regarding decisions on health, socialization and household expenditure, as well as a decline in the acceptation of domestic violence and girls' circumcision, in the regions most affected by the protests. This effect is not due to particular regional patterns or pre-existing trends in empowerment. It is also robust to alternative treatment definitions and confirmed by triple difference estimations. We confront our main interpretation to alternative mechanisms that could have explained this effect.
    Keywords: Arab Spring, revolutions, gender, empowerment, Egypt
    JEL: J12 J16 D74 I14
    Date: 2018–05
  4. By: Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Anna Carolina Machado (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Zakat is one of the five pillars of Islam and considered a religious duty for wealthy people to support those in need. In Muslim-majority countries, zakat has a long tradition of providing income, goods for consumption and other basic services such as health care and education to poor and marginalised populations. A growing body of research has investigated the role of zakat in the provision of social protection and its importance as a poverty reduction mechanism. Although based on the same principles, countries vary significantly in the institutionalisation of zakat, ranging from obligatory to voluntary contributions. The institutional arrangements and benefit provision also differ greatly". (...)
    Keywords: Role, zakat, provision, social protection, comparison, Jordan, Palestine, Sudan
    Date: 2018–05
  5. By: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Djibouti is a small country located at the Horn of Africa, bordering Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia. It is one of the poorest countries in the MENA region and classified as a lower-middle-income country, with a Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.473, and ranked 172nd out of 188 countries worldwide. In 2016, Djibouti had a population of 942,000 people, with 345,000 below the age of 18 and 102,000 under 5. Poverty levels are high, with 41 per cent of the population living below the national poverty line of DJF147,936 and 23 per cent surviving on an income below the extreme poverty line of DJF98,709 in 2013 (calculated in terms of consumption on an annual basis. For years Djibouti has been a major transit country for migrants in the region, currently hosting around 24,000 refugees, primarily from Yemen and Somalia". (...)
    Keywords: Non-contributory, social protection, child, equity, lens, Djibouti
    Date: 2018–05
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Shared Prosperity (SCAPP) prepared by the Mauritanian Government upon completion of the PRSP (2001–15) covers the period 2016–30, which corresponds to that of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The strategy was formulated with the participation of the various actors involved, namely the Sectoral Technical Committees (CTS) at the ministerial department level, representatives of the decentralized administrations, representatives of national and local elected officials, civil society, the private sector, academics, youth, women, Mauritanians living abroad, contacts, and Technical and Financial Partners (TFPs). Once the process was completed, two volumes were drafted: (i) A social, economic, institutional, and environmental diagnostic assessment of the country; and (ii) Strategic Guidelines and Action Plan 2016–20 of the SCAPP. Following are the principal conclusions and guidelines of the two volumes.
    Date: 2018–06–01
  7. By: Y. Tamsamani, Yasser
    Abstract: The Moroccan unemployment figures tell a tale of a statistical misery that hides another one's but more real and painful. First, the purpose of this essay is to highlight the fact that these figures are a product of preemptive arbitrations, in terms of definition and calculation methodology, aimed at putting in perspective their scope and adeptness to cover the subject of unemployment and its multitude of facets. Subsequently, the essay surmises the necessity to strengthen unemployment statistical information with the introduction of the unemployment halo calculation, and its systematic communication, as well as standard simulations of unemployment rates targeted for higher activity levels. The unemployment halo is estimated here at 5.2-11.7 Million people, according to statistical analysis geared towards stay at home wives, and the unemployment rate rises to 30 % for a similar activity ratio that the developed countries. Finally, this essay contends for the right of access to raw survey information, well before the definition, and application, of unemployment criteria in order to allow complementary measures emanating from alternative definitions to emerge.
    Keywords: Survey Data, Measuring Unemployment, Unemployment Halo, Morocco
    JEL: C82 C83 J64 O55
    Date: 2018–06–04

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