|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Nesrine Mechri (UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, FSEG Sfax - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax); Ben Hamad (IHEC de Sfax); Christian Peretti (University of Orleans - LEO); Sahar Charfi (FSEG Sfax - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax) |
| Abstract: | The present research provides an overview of the interactions and links between exchange rate volatility and the dynamics of stock market returns in order to clarify the relationship between this variables for managers and investors who will be able to control better the portfolio risk level. This research aims to identify the impact of both exchange rate and relative prices uncertainty on the fluctuations of stock markets prices, considering two countries that belong to MENA zone. The GARCH model is applied to measure the volatility of our variables and implemented a multiple regression model to determine the impact of exchange rate and relative prices fluctuations as well as their volatilities on stock market volatility using Monthly data. In this work, several determinants of stock market indices are integrated in our empirical examination that have not been used simultaneously before, hence, the results show that in the case of Tunisia, exchange rate volatility have a significant effect on stock market fluctuations, as well as the volatility of the Gold and the oil prices, which are significant. Alternatively, in Turkey both the volatilities of the exchange rate and gold prices have an influence on the dynamics of the stock market returns and the fluctuation of the interest rate as well, while other prices are statistically non-significant. J.E.L. classification: F31, F62, F65, G15 |
| Keywords: | Nominal exchange rate,MENA,Volatility,GARCH 2,Stock market return |
| Date: | 2018–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01766742&r=ara |
| By: | Maria Elkhdari (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Babacar Sarr (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, International Monetary Fund (IMF)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how decentralization affects poverty, vulnerability, and inequality in Morocco, in the context of ongoing regionalization reforms. We use different non-parametric approaches to assess spending efficiency of Moroccan municipalities and regions over the period 2005-2009. The results indicate that the efficiency of spending in improving pro-poor outcomes is dependent on the fiscal autonomy of subnational governments. While the impact of transfer dependency is not statistically significant, more granular data show that formula-based (unconditional) transfers significantly improve spending efficiency when the opposite is true for ad-hoc (conditional) transfers. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of political decentralization and find that local spending is less efficient in regions where municipal governments have a greater responsibility for spending compared to the regional government. This finding also holds in more fragmented regions with a high number of municipalities. Finally, we test whether there is an electoral budget cycle in Morocco and find that spending efficiency decreases the year of local elections, but increases with the level of education of elected officials. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, Morocco, Poverty, Vulnerability, Inequality, Public spending efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, Partial Frontier Analysis. |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01774949&r=ara |
| By: | Maria Elkhdari (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines how the Government of Morocco has addressed the issue of decentralization in recent years and how these processes have evolved and affected fiscal and public policies. More specifically, this paper analyzes the current legislative and institutional provisions governing administrative, political and fiscal decentralization in Morocco and presents a detailed analysis of the decentralized tax system. It analyses the role of each tier and the political, administrative and fiscal prerogatives of their respective councils. It appears from this analysis that the Moroccan system is still largely centralized. First, through the continued control of the central government via the tutelle. Second, because of the low financial autonomy of the local governments which remain widely dependent on intergovernmental transfers. Finally, it appears that the shared management of local taxation by different tiers of government can result in a lack of communication and information sharing as well as a lack of commitment from those that manage the collection on behalf of others. The regional level should be given more power to oversee and harmonize the prerogatives of each level of subnational government. |
| Keywords: | Deconcentration, Political decentralization, Fiscal decentralization, Local taxes, Local governments, Morocco. |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01774928&r=ara |
| By: | Ronen, Eyal; Benizri, Yohan |
| Abstract: | Israeli manufactured export performance has been on a growth path for the past two decades. This growth is partly due to the continuing shift in Israeli export specialization patterns from traditional products towards technology-intensified exports. However, Israel’s strong export competitiveness also derives from proliferating free trade agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners, especially the European Union (EU). This paper analyzes export statistics to provide data validating the positive impact of recent FTAs on Israel’s export comparative advantages across all sectors between 1995 and 2015. It employs an econometric framework to examine stability and specialization trends, as well as convergence. Furthermore, the authors add to the literature by performing a survival analysis, using the Kaplan-Meier Survival Rate model, to identify particular Israeli export sectors that have benefited from a longer pe- riod of competitive advantage than other sectors due to the EU-Israel Association Agreement. |
| Keywords: | Export Competitiveness, Survival Analysis, Trade Agreements. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85728&r=ara |
| By: | Dagoumas, Athanasios; Perifanis, Theodosios; Polemis, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at disentangling Saudi Arabia’s crude oil strategy, taking into account critical factors such as oil stock, crude oil price, world demand conditions and macro-economic factors. Our study estimates three Error Correction Models (ECMs), using data spanning the period 1971-2015. The empirical findings provide sufficient evidence on the way Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production strategy affects crude oil market. Specifically, when world crude oil demand increases, Saudi Arabia engages into exploitative practices since it tries to impose higher prices leaving room for the increased demand to the rest of the OPEC countries (market sharing). Moreover, we argue that Saudi Arabia’s strategy is in alliance with the trade-off theory of producing more crude oil to establish its market share. However, the country does not intent to fully cover all the increased demand and does not over-react to short-run demand fluctuations since such a strategy would push crude oil prices down. |
| Keywords: | Crude oil; Error Correction Model; Energy; OPEC; Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | O13 O53 Q41 |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86283&r=ara |
| By: | Dilem Yıldırım (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Onur A. Koska (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study would like to contribute to the existing literature on the Feldstein-Horioka paradox by focusing on Turkey for the period 1960-2014 and by scrutinizing the correlation between domestic savings and investments within a time-varying parameter approach (which is warranted especially for emerging countries due to their political and economic instability and due to the frequency of policy changes). Our time-varying parameter approach is able to capture the impact of various economic and political interruptions on the correlation between domestic savings and investments, especially the military coups in the early 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, and the economic and financial crises in the mid-1990s, in the late 1990s, and in the early 2000s, as well as the financial crises affecting various countries in the globe in the late 1990s and 2000s. Our empirical analysis suggests a high correlation between domestic savings and investments in the 1960s, which was decreasing (increasing) during the 1970s (1980s), and which was decreasing since the 1990s. Furthermore, in the post-2002 era, with a further decline in the correlation coefficient, the saving-investment nexus has turned out to be statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | Feldstein-Horioka Paradox; Turkey; Economic and financial crises; Structural breaks; Time-varying parameter approach |
| JEL: | E21 E22 F21 C32 C51 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1808&r=ara |
| By: | Arouri, Hassan; Ben Youssef, Adel; Quatraro, Francesco; Vivarelli, Marco |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the growth dynamics of young small firms (in contrast with larger and older incumbents) in a developing country context, using a unique and comprehensive dataset of non-agricultural Tunisian companies. Our results suggest that significant differences between young and mature firms can be found as far as the drivers of their growth are concerned. The key finding being that - while consistently with the extant literature Gibrat’s law is overall rejected - the negative impact of the initial size is significantly larger for young than mature firms. This result has interesting policy implications: since smaller young firms are particularly conducive to employment generation, they can be considered good candidate for targeted accompanying policies addressed to sustain their post-entry growth. |
| Keywords: | firm’s growth,young firms,Gibrat’s law,Tunisia |
| JEL: | O12 L26 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:197&r=ara |
| By: | Amine Abderma (UH1 - Université Hassan 1er - Univ. Hassan I Settat, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Université Hassan I); Driss Beneserighe |
| Date: | 2018–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01762665&r=ara |
| By: | Arouri, Hassan (National Institute of Statistics, Tunisia); Ben Youssef, Adel (University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis, and GREDEG-CNRS); Quatraro, Francesco (University of Torino, and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Vivarelli, Marco (UNU-MERIT, and Universita’ Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the growth dynamics of young small firms (in contrast with larger and older incumbents) in a developing country context, using a unique and comprehensive dataset of non-agricultural Tunisian companies. Our results suggest that significant differences between young and mature firms can be found as far as the drivers of their growth are concerned. The key finding being that - while consistently with the extant literature Gibrat's law is overall rejected - the negative impact of the initial size is significantly larger for young than mature firms. This result has interesting policy implications: since smaller young firms are particularly conducive to employment generation, they can be considered good candidates for targeted accompanying policies addressed to sustain their post-entry growth. |
| Keywords: | firm's growth, young firms, Gibrat's law, Tunisia |
| JEL: | O12 L26 |
| Date: | 2018–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2018019&r=ara |
| By: | Dinc, Yusuf |
| Abstract: | Capital adequacy ratio is the main indicator for banks to proceed with their operations. Standards for the calculation of the ratio are based on Basel Accord. Key factor for the calculation is credit risk. Credit risk is a function of credit and collateral type. In this case, mortgage has lower risk weight based on its collateral structure on credit risk. This research evaluates the effects of mortgages on capital adequacy ratio to understand the effects of collateral based credits. The findings show positive results between capital adequacy ratio and mortgages of participation banks. However, mortgages have negative impact on capital adequacy ratio of conventional banks. Participation and conventional banks of Turkey are compared on linear regression to analyse the effects of mortgages on capital adequacy ratio. Results are important for further research and professionals. |
| Keywords: | Capital adequacy ratio Mortgage Islamic banking Retail credit |
| JEL: | G21 G29 |
| Date: | 2017–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86451&r=ara |
| By: | Sulaiman Al-Abduljader |
| Abstract: | Regional interdependence among four real estate markets is tested using a variety of testing techniques. Real estate markets are represented by their respective real estate indices using monthly data spanning over ten years. Various econometric tests involving error correction models and symmetric/ asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are utilized in this study. The results reveal the absence of long-run relationships with the notion of cross-sectional efficiency. Nonetheless, evidence is found for short-run dynamic interdependence when the model allows for asymmetric responses.Regional interdependence in real estate markets have become evident in the mist of the global financial crisis in 2008. With the increased integration of economies, market liberalization and technological advances, markets in general became more interdependent than previously confirmed as witnessed in various studies such as Saunders and Walter (2002), Shen et al. (2010) and Oyedale et al. (2014). However, although many studies have investigated a series of developed and emerging markets. I’m unaware of an empirical investigation testing the GCC real estate markets especially the period following global financial crisis. This study is intended to shed light to fellow economists on the interdependence of four key real estate markets in the GCC through a series of empirical tests. Furthermore, it is of particular interest in this study to dissect the interdependence of the regional real estate markets and test its significance in both bull and bear markets. As such, an asymmetric model is specified and tested for presence or absence of asymmetry. |
| Keywords: | capital markets; Diversification; Emerging Markets; Interdependance; regional integration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_392&r=ara |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of gaining access to railways on settler and indigenous population densities in nineteenth-century French Algeria. A growing amount of research shows that railway expansion allowed previously marginalized regions to participate in international trade and thereby to boost growth. However, few studies point out that railways increased marginalization in areas that did not gain access to the infrastructure or that did not have the required geographic characteristics needed to engage in international markets. By taking advantage of unique territorial population data and digitized historical colonization maps in the Constantine region, this paper measures the effect of gaining access in relatively isolated areas where the infrastructure arrived later using a differences-in-differences combined with a propensity score matching methodology. Results show that the indigenous population responded positively to rail infrastructure only in the regions where settler density was already high, while the settler population growth did not respond to the new infrastructure. These results are consistent with an additional IV strategy. A more detailed analysis of freight and passenger transport shows that the potential gains were restricted by tariffs, which mirrored Constantine's geographical restrictions; that is, limited fertile land and the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate. |
| Keywords: | Algeria; Population Density; Agriculture; Transport and Trade; Colonial Railways |
| JEL: | Q17 O18 N9 N7 N5 |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:26738&r=ara |
| By: | Kamel Malik BENSAFTA |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2579&r=ara |
| By: | Michael Barzelay; Masakatsu Okumoto; Hideki Watanabe |
| Abstract: | Becoming a more successful society, according to mainstream views about development, depends on strengthening organizations. For this reason, the intent of international development cooperation projects properly includes strengthening partner-organizations. However, development agencies face a decision-dilemma. To strengthen a partner-organization, the development agency needs to participate in its management process. On the other hand, such participation would foreseeably cause the partner-organization to become dependent on the development agency, weakening its capabilities. It is thus rational for a development agency to intervene, and it is rational not to intervene. This paper develops a purposive theory of organization-strengthening international development projects that brings this decision-dilemma to the fore, while also reporting and analyzing a specific case of such projects, named in the paper's sub-title. The design-focused case study shows how this decision- dilemma can be eased through by the use of a well-designed mechanism for participating in the management-process of partner-organizations during project operation. The paper's purposive theorizing and design-focused case study are meant not only to advance professional knowledge about strengthening partner-organizations as part of international development cooperation projects, but also to illustrate an emerging method for advancing professional knowledge about public management, generally. |
| Keywords: | Developing organisational capacity, Project leadership, development project realization, project monitoring, design-focused case study |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:172&r=ara |