nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒03‒26
ten papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Neoliberal populism in Turkey and its crisis By Akcay, Ümit
  2. Morocco; Third Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco By International Monetary Fund
  3. Prospects for climate change integration into GCC economic diversification strategies By Al-Sarihi, Aisha
  4. Exchange rate volatility: A forecasting approach of using the ARCH family along with ARIMA SARIMA and semi-structural-SVAR in Turkey. By Ganbold, Batzorig; Akram, Iqra; Fahrozi Lubis, Raisal
  5. Implementation of a “Self-Sufficient Ageing” Policy and Possible Challenges: Case of Turkey By Sariipek, Doga Basar; Çuhadar, Seyran Gürsoy
  6. Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2016 By World Bank Group
  7. Export Competitiveness and Trade Agreements: Analysis and Insights from Israel’s Experience By Ronen, Eyal; Benizri, Yohan
  8. Multivariate Periodic Stochastic Volatility Models: Applications to Algerian dinar exchange rates and oil prices modeling By Nadia Boussaha; Faycal Hamdi; Saïd Souam
  9. Teaching Intercultural Communication Competence to Arabian Students By Rodolfo Delgado
  10. Vergi Dairesi Baskanligi Calisanlarinin Vergi Algilari: Antalya Ornegi By Burak Alp; Unal Tongur

  1. By: Akcay, Ümit
    Abstract: Turkey was shown as a model country by Western capitals in the early 2000s because it successfully embraced the neoliberal economic path and "moderate Islamist" values. In the last couple of years, however, Turkey has been in a state of turmoil, which has included the failure of the so-called democratization process and a rapid rise in authoritarianism. Surprisingly, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey has been among a few political parties worldwide which have managed to stay in office, despite implementing a neoliberal economic model since 2002. This paper suggests that the "neoliberal populism" framework can be applied to understand the seemingly contradictory dynamics of the so-called success story of the AKP. First, the paper explains the main features of the neoliberal populist model in Turkey. This model is characterized by the implementation of neoliberal austerity measures alongside the introduction of a new welfare regime and the widening of financial inclusiveness. The main result of neoliberal populism is the enfeeblement of labor movement. Second, the paper argues that once the neoliberal populist model was established, it changed the structure of the political conflict. In this new structure, power struggles have taken the form of intra-elite conflict, rather than class struggle. The paper also suggests that a recent change to the executive presidential system in Turkey should be understood in the context of a continuing power struggle among the ruling classes, one that has been unfolding since 2007.
    Keywords: Neoliberal populism,financial inclusion,social inclusion,Turkey
    JEL: P16 I38 J38 D74 H53
    Date: 2018
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have declined since 2012, but growth remains subdued and sensitive to volatile agricultural output. External imbalances are contained and fiscal consolidation resumed in 2017 after a pause in 2016. Job creation has improved but unemployment remains high, particularly among the youth. Social tensions increased in 2017, and in response, the authorities took steps to accelerate local social programs and investment projects. The government appointed in April 2017 remains committed to implementing sound policies and reforms have resumed. However, the outlook is subject to significant risks, including geopolitical risks in the region, weaker-than-expected growth in the euro area and delays in implementing key reforms. To achieve higher, sustainable, and more inclusive growth, reform implementation needs to accelerate, particularly in the areas of governance, the business environment, education, and the labor market.
  3. By: Al-Sarihi, Aisha
    Abstract: Characterised by a fragile desert environment and high reliance on oil export revenues as their primary source of income, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. This both urges the strengthening of non-oil economic sectors and renders oil export revenues vulnerable to the impacts of the climate change mitigation measures adopted by other countries. Moreover, reliance on oil makes economic vulnerability to oil price shocks an inevitable challenge to the region’s economic stability. This paper studies the interplay between climate change mitigation efforts and attempts to diversify GCC economies in order to identify the potential co-benefits of mainstreaming climate change measures into long-term economic planning, and to analyse the gap in addressing climate change in GCC economic diversification processes.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2018–02
  4. By: Ganbold, Batzorig; Akram, Iqra; Fahrozi Lubis, Raisal
    Abstract: The ability to predict the volatility of Exchange rate is an enormous challenge when it comes to economic and financial considerations. In this context, it is important to be able to predict the exchange rate volatility in financial markets and the world economy. This paper proposes a heightened approach to modeling and forecasting of exchange rate volatility in Turkey. For past recent years, Turkey experienced political turbulence that the possibility of effecting exchange rate, thus create uncertainty volatility of exchange rate. Therefore daily exchange rate data have been taken from 2005-2017 and applied autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ARCH and GARCH families (EGARCH, IGARCH, and PARCH) to forecast exchange rate volatility. The proposed methodology able to calculate the breakpoint by including dummy variables. The result is more confined after including dummy that EGARCH (1,1) is best performing to forecast exchange rate volatility and successfully overcome the leverage effect on the exchange rate. Moreover, this paper also investigates the monthly data forecasting by applying ARIMA SARIMA along with SVAR technique for next few months. And Exchange rate pass-through also encounter it, which indicates the pass-through is more pronounced in PPI than CPI. The forecast result of SARIMA and SVAR distribute the same direction of fluctuation in the exchange rate that is declining of the current exchange rate in the future. However, ARIMA’s forecast tends to increase and different with two models.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, Volatility, Forecast, SVAR
    JEL: F31 F37
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Sariipek, Doga Basar; Çuhadar, Seyran Gürsoy
    Abstract: The policies of socioeconomic protection of older adults in most parts of the world are being redesigned in the scope of value-added targets, such as active ageing, successful ageing, or creative ageing. The main purpose here is, of course, enabling older adults self-sufficient and beneficial both for themselves and their social environment, instead of being simply the passive beneficiaries of the public support mechanisms. Turkey has a population which is still young but ageing very rapidly and will reach to the same point as Europe today in a relatively much shorter time. However, the country still seems to be away from conducting systematic and holistic measures, except for a few ineffective strategy papers and legal regulations. Therefore, Turkey must immediately design a new policy agenda in conformity with its traditional and historical advantages. Revitalizing the intergenerational solidarity bonds, in this regard, may be the best cost-effective solution to complement formal measures in the provision of social protection and in the process of active ageing. However, this traditional protection net is under attack of increasingly transforming socioeconomic conditions. Consequently, as one of the most rapidly ageing countries in the world, Turkey should immediately stimulate studies and debates over a healthy, functional, and effective ageing period and caring issues. Otherwise, governments will be blindsided by the socioeconomic, psychological, cultural, and physiological problems related to the ageing process. In the light of these facts, the main purpose of this study is to discuss policy recommendations to create a self-sufficient ageing period for older adults in the context of Turkish case.
    Keywords: Ageing, Third Age, Fourth Age, Older Persons Care, Turkey, Informal Care
    JEL: J14 N3
    Date: 2017
  6. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Forecasting Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth Environment - Air Quality & Clean Air
    Date: 2016–09
  7. By: Ronen, Eyal; Benizri, Yohan
    Abstract: Israeli manufactured export performance has been on a growth path for the past two decades. This growth is partly due to the continuing shift in Israeli export specialization patterns from traditional products towards technology-intensified exports. However, Israel’s strong export competitiveness also derives from proliferating free trade agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners, especially the European Union (EU). This paper analyzes export statistics to provide data validating the positive impact of recent FTAs on Israel’s export comparative advantages across all sectors between 1995 and 2015. It employs an econometric framework to examine stability and specialization trends, as well as convergence. Furthermore, the authors add to the literature by performing a survival analysis, using the Kaplan-Meier Survival Rate model, to identify particular Israeli export sectors that have benefited from a longer pe- riod of competitive advantage than other sectors due to the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
    Keywords: Export Competitiveness, Survival Analysis, Trade Agreements.
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Nadia Boussaha; Faycal Hamdi; Saïd Souam
    Abstract: The contribution of this paper is twofold. In a first step, we propose the so called Periodic Multivariate Autoregressive Stochastic Volatility (PV ARSV) model, that allows the Granger causality in volatility in order to capture periodicity in stochastic conditional variance. After a thorough discussion, we provide some probabilistic properties of this class of models. We thus propose two methods for the estimation problem, one based on the periodic Kalman filter and the other on the particle filter and smoother with Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In a second step, we propose an empirical application by modeling oil price and three exchange rates time series. It turns out that our modeling gives very accurate results and has a well volatility forecasting performance.
    Keywords: Multivariate periodic stochastic volatility; periodic stationarity; periodic Kalman filter; particle filtering; exchange rates; Saharan Blend oil.
    JEL: C32 C53 F31 G17
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Rodolfo Delgado (Tokai University)
    Abstract: This paper aims to provide task-based activities for teaching intercultural communication to students of the Arabic world. Students from Saudi Arabia, United Emigrates Arabs, and Qatar were among the students that participated in the business writing, and discussions on intercultural communication courses. Based on Islamic religious believes, people think of religion before doing businesses nationally and internationally.?Islam is often perceived to be an impediment to business, with the economies of most Muslim states underdeveloped and only five out of the FT Global 500 leading companies by market capitalization based in the Islamic world. Legal uncertainties arising at the interface of traditional Islamic shariah jurisprudence and Western contract law deter foreign direct investment in predominately Muslim states (Ballantyne, 1997). Islamist political movements are usually viewed negatively by business, as they are perceived to be a threat to security and stability, and add to country risk? (Wilson, 2006). Task-based activities for intercultural communication will be discusses to improve their competence doing business nationally and internationally. Problem solving, critical thinking, role playing, group discussion, and debate are some of the learning strategies that will be discussed to examine the effectiveness in improving Arabian university students? language proficiency and the effectiveness of class management in a Japanese private university. Teachers and professors are constantly looking for strategies, techniques, and practices to better the learning environment. Providing the right balance of theory and practice can fully engage students to improve their performance in classroom. Examples of the learning skills shared with students will be discussed. Task-based activities represent important keys for developing intercultural communication competence and improving second language acquisition for courses like business writing, interactive English, and discussions on intercultural communication. Students had access to professionals? analytical skills to understand the behavior, attitudes, body language, and know-how of western cultures compared to Arabian cultures.
    Keywords: Teaching, learning, strategies, techniques, tasks, business, English, Intercultural, Communication
    JEL: A00
    Date: 2017–10
  10. By: Burak Alp (Akdeniz University, Department of Economics); Unal Tongur (Akdeniz University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Devlet olmanin sorumluluklarindan birisi vergi toplamaktir. Vergi idaresi, mukelleflerin vergisel davranislari uzerinde etkili olabilmektedir. Bu calismada, Antalya Vergi Dairesi Baskanligi’nda calisan vergi memurlarina anket yapilmis ve vergi memurlarinin Turkiye’de vergi sistemine iliskin algilari incelenmistir. Elde edilen bulgulardan hareketle, Turkiye’ de vergi memurlarinin; vergileme ilkelerine, mukellef tutumlarina, vergi bilincine, vergi suclarina, vergi denetimine karsi algilari ortaya konmus ve vergi sistemimiz ile ilgili aksakliklara cozum onerileri sunulmustur.
    Keywords: Vergi Algisi, Vergi Idaresi, Vergileme Ilkeleri, Antalya
    JEL: H20 H25 H26
    Date: 2018–03

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