nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒02‒05
27 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Home-ownership, Housing Demand and Household Wealth Distribution in Turkey By Evren Ceritoglu
  2. The Impact of the Quality of Banking Services on Improving the Marketing Performance of Banks in Gaza Governorates from the Point of View of Their Employees By Wasim I. Al-Habil; Amal A. Al Hila; Mazen M. Al Shobaki; Youssef M. Abu Amuna; Samy S. Abu Naser
  3. The Impact of Olive Oil Exports on Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis from Tunisia By Bakari, Sayef
  4. The Quality of Banking Services in Light of the Financial Transformations and Their Impact on the Marketing Performance of the Banks in Gaza Strip By Amal Al Hila; Eitedal Alhelou; Mazen Al Shobaki; Samy S Abu Naser
  5. Borrowing Constraints and Savings in Turkey By Sumru Altug; Melih Can Firat
  6. A Financial Connectedness Analysis for Turkey By Ferhat Camlica; Didem Gunes; Etkin Ozen
  7. Importance Degree of eHRM and its Impact on Various Administrative Levels in Palestinian Universities By Mazen J. Al Shobaki; Samy S. Abu Naser; Youssef M. Abu Amuna; Suliman A. El Talla
  8. The Empirical Content of Season-of-Birth Effects: An Investigation with Turkish Data By Huzeyfe Torun; Semih Tumen
  9. Food self-sufficiency under the Green-Morocco Plan By Abdelmajid Saidi; Mohammed Diouri
  10. Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: The Effects of Physical, Social and Financial Infrastructure Investments By Hulya Saygili; K. Azim Ozdemir
  11. The Effect of House Price Changes on Cohort Consumption in Turkey By Evren Ceritoglu
  12. Birth and Employment Transitions of Women in Turkey: Conflicting or Compatible Roles? By Ozgoren, Ayse; Ergocmen, Banu; Tansel, Aysit
  13. Trash Crisis and Solid Waste Management in Lebanon-Analyzing Hotels’ Commitment and Guests’ Preferences By Socrat Ghadban; Maya Shames; Haifa Abou Mayaleh
  14. Voting Patterns and the Gender Wage Gap By Adnan, Wifag; Miaari, Sami H.
  15. Multidimensional Poverty Measurement in Tunisia: Distribution of Deprivations across Regions By Nasri, Khaled; Belhadj, Besma
  16. Beef Price Volatility in Turkey: Can Import Policy Affect the Price and Its Uncertainty? By Meltem Gulenay Chadwick; Emine Meltem Bastan
  17. The Effect of Implicit Market Barriers on Stock Trading and Liquidity By Asem Alhomaidi; M. Kabir Hassan; William J. Hippler
  18. A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting By Mna, Ali; Younsi, Moheddine
  19. Disaggregated Evidence for Exchange Rate and Import Price Pass-through in the Light of Identification Issues, Aggregation Bias and Heterogeneity By Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Meltem Topaloglu
  20. The Impact of Applying the Dimensions of IT Governance in Improving e-training -Case Study of the Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Technology in Gaza Governorates By Amal A. Al Hila; Eitedal M. S. Alhelou; Mazen M. Al Shobaki; Samy S. Abu Naser
  21. The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank By Anas Yassine; Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul
  22. Forecasting the Growth Cycles of the Turkish Economy By H. Murat Ozbilgin
  23. Renewable Energy, Quality of Institutions and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: a Panel Cointegration Approach By Saidi, Hichem; El Montasser, Ghassen; Ajmi, Noomen
  24. استخدام نماذج ARCH لنمذجة تقلبات أسعار الأسهم في سوق المال السعودي - دراسة حالة شركة اتحاد اتصالات السعودية – By LEGOUGUI, Fateh; CHIKHI, Mohamed
  25. Turkiye’de Gida Enflasyonunun Belirleyicileri By Okan Eren; Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Mustafa Utku Ozmen
  26. Update : FAO Fiyat Uyari Gostergesi Yonteminin Tanitimi ve Turkiye’de Islenmemis Gida Urunlerine Uygulanmasi By Huseyin Songul
  27. Turkiye'de Yakin Donemde Kira Enflasyonunu Etkileyen Faktorler By Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Canan Yuksel Yucel

  1. By: Evren Ceritoglu
    Abstract: This paper analyses recent housing market developments in Turkey. In particular, we estimate permanent income elasticity, price elasticity and interest rate elasticity of housing demand. For this purpose, we utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2014. The most difficult aspect of empirical analysis is the estimation of a hedonic house price index. We find that the permanent income elasticity of housing demand is approximately 24% in our restricted sample. The price elasticity of housing demand is between -29% and -35%, but it is not statistically significant. Interest rate elasticity of housing demand has a negative sign, but it is measured as a very small value and it is not statistically significant. Our estimates are modest compared to previous empirical findings for the Turkish economy and emerging market economies in the literature. Moreover, robustness checks reveal that the importance of income on housing demand remained at the same level between 2003 and 2014, while the roles of house prices and interest rates are weakened during this time period with respect to past periods. As a result, our empirical analysis confirms that income is the main determinant of home-ownership and housing wealth.
    Keywords: Home-ownership, Hedonic house price index, Housing demand, Household wealth distribution
    JEL: C23 D12 R21
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Wasim I. Al-Habil (Department of Business Administration - The Islamic University of Gaza (Palestine)); Amal A. Al Hila (Department of Management and Financial Business - Palestine Technical College); Mazen M. Al Shobaki (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Youssef M. Abu Amuna (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Samy S. Abu Naser (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University)
    Abstract: This study aimed to identify the impact of the quality of banking services on the marketing performance of the banks operating in the Gaza Strip in light of the financial transformations from the point of view of employees and the relationship between the quality of banking services and marketing performance from the point of view of employees. The researchers used the descriptive analytical method. The research population consisted of employees of Bank (Palestine Limited, Islamic Palestine, Housing, Jerusalem, Arab Bank). The study tool was a questionnaire applied to a simple random sample of employees. A total of 97 responses were obtained with a recovery rate (97%) for the questionnaire of the employees. The results of the study indicated that the level of availability of the quality of banking service (safety, credibility, efficiency of service providers, tact, empathy, reliability, communication, accessibility, material and human aspects, response level) in banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the point of view of employees was high. The results showed that the level of marketing performance of banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the point of view of workers was high. There is a statistically significant relationship at the level of (α≤0.05) between the quality of banking service and the financial transformations on the one hand and the financial transformations and marketing performance in the banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the point of view of employees. There is a statistically significant relationship at the level (α≤0.05) between the quality of banking service and marketing performance in the banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the point of view of employees. There is a statistically significant impact of the quality of banking services on the marketing performance of banks operating in the Gaza Strip in light of the financial transformations from the point of view of employees. The intermediate variable of financial transformations weakens the impact between the quality of banking services and marketing performance. There are no statistically significant differences at the level of (α≤0.05) between the averages of the employees' estimation on the quality of banking services, marketing performance and financial transitions for the variable of scientific qualification and the bank. There are statistically significant differences at the level of (α≤0.05) between the average scores of employees on the quality of banking services for the variable number of years of service and for those who have years of service (less than 5 years). One of the most important recommendations was to promote and develop the skills of bank employees, prepare banking competencies on a global level, develop their performance in the field of assimilation of developments and on the development of the banking industry. The use of special agencies to study and discover areas of weakness and strength in banking services through the use of models developed globally to raise the credibility of the results locally and internationally. The establishment of strategies and policies for the improvement of the quality of the banking service provided by the Department of Banks, taking into consideration the relative importance of the quality of the banking service provided effectively in the design and implementation of quality strategies. The need for banks to face financial transformations emanating from within the bank and not to develop a model system imported from abroad or from other banks in order to achieve effectiveness. Banks must adopt effective strategies to upgrade their services to the level of these different challenges. To develop and strengthen the oversight role of the Monetary Authority over banks, and to adopt an ambitious plan to restructure the Monetary Authority and its operations to become more in line with international standards and practices and to become a modern central bank with full powers. Banks need to encourage researchers and those interested in banking services to carry out applied studies and scientific research in this area by providing them with the financial support and data required to do so.
    Keywords: Banks,Gaza Governorates,Quality,Banking Services,Marketing Performance
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Bakari, Sayef
    Abstract: The contribution of this paper is investigating the influence of olive oil exports on Tunisian economic growth since it's never been treated before. With a view to fulfill this aim, annual data were compiled from the reports of Tunisian Central Bank for the periods between 1970 and 2016, was put to the proof by using Co integration analysis of Error Correction Model. According to the outcome of the analysis, olive oil exports have a positive incidence of economic growth in the long term and in the short run. These results appear that olive oil exports are a provenance of economic growth in Tunisia and emphasize the application of policies and strategies to encourage better exploitation in this strip.
    Keywords: Olive Oil Exports, Economic Growth, Cointegration, ECM, Tunisia.
    JEL: F0 F1 F11 F13 F14 O47 O55 Q17
    Date: 2017–10
  4. By: Amal Al Hila (Department of Management and Financial Business - Palestine Technical College); Eitedal Alhelou (University of Palestine); Mazen Al Shobaki (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Samy S Abu Naser (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University)
    Abstract: This study aimed to investigate the effect on the quality of banking services marketing performance of banks operating in the Gaza Strip in light of the financial transitions from the perspective of employees, and the disclosure of the relationship between the quality of banking services and marketing performance from the perspective of employees and customers. The researcher used descriptive and analytical approach, and the study population of employees and customers at Bank (Palestine Limited, Palestinian Islamic, housing, Jerusalem, the Arab Bank), and the study tool is a questionnaire applied to a simple random sample of employees and customers have been obtained (97) questionnaire rate of recovery (97%) to identify the employees, the customers have been recovered (141) questionnaire by recovery (78%). the results of the study showed a statistically significant relationship between the quality of banking service and financial shifts in operating in the Gaza Strip banks from the perspective of employees, and between financial transformations and marketing performance of banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the perspective of employees, and the quality of banking service and marketing performance in banks operating in the Gaza Strip from the standpoint of employees, customers, and that there is the effect of a statistically significant for the quality of banking services on the marketing performance of banks operating in the Gaza Strip in light of the transformations Finance from the perspective of employees. And changing the mediator of financial shifts weaken the impact of the quality of banking services and the marketing performance. One of the main recommendations: to work on open communication channels between banks and customers departments to keep the banking institutions more flexible and responsive to the aspirations of the entire banking customers about the services provided and it will contribute to the improvement of marketing performance.
    Keywords: Banking Services,Marketing Performance,Financial Transformation,Banks,Gaza Governorates,Quality
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Sumru Altug (Koc University, Istanbul and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London); Melih Can Firat (Johns Hopkins University, Maryland)
    Abstract: The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also been a significant increase in access to credit by Turkish households. In this paper, we argue that a model which incorporates a borrowing constraint mechanism together with the observed increases in the expected growth rate of income and the substantial declines in the real interest rate is able to explain the change in saving across cohorts in Turkey over the last decade. We provide both micro-level evidence on the age-saving profile for Turkey as well as quantitative results from a simple three-period OLG framework with borrowing constraints to account for the change in the saving rate for different age-groups between 2004 and 2014.
    Keywords: Borrowing constraints, life-cycle household saving, nonlinear estimation, Turkey.
    JEL: C78 D61 D78 I20
    Date: 2018–01
  6. By: Ferhat Camlica; Didem Gunes; Etkin Ozen
    Abstract: This paper investigates the structure of financial connectedness in Turkey between 2002 and 2017 by using the Diebold and Yilmaz variance decomposition method. We aim to uncover financial connectedness among major subcomponents in Turkish financial markets, and whether there has been a change in directional connectedness over time, and which markets were shock senders and receivers. Our results of average analysis show that the equity market is the highest net stress contributor, followed by money and foreign exchange markets, while bond and banking markets are net receivers. Our dynamic spillover analysis indicates that during heightened volatility periods, net sources of stress are mainly equity, foreign exchange, and, in a lesser context, the bond markets. On the other hand, the banking sector is a net receiver of financial stress. The dynamic analysis also indicates that the spillover index for the Turkish financial markets was at its highest during the financial stress episode starting in mid-2013 and ending in mid-2014, followed by 2006 FED tightening period and idiosyncratic domestic shocks. Spillover spikes in other well-known episodes tended to remain lower, which can also be attributed to Turkish macroeconomic policy regime aiming to mitigate external and domestic shocks. Finally, the policymaking bodies responsible for macroprudential oversight in Turkey are broadly capable of monitoring and evaluating financial market spillover dynamics.
    Keywords: Spillovers, Systemic stress, Connectedness analysis, Vector autoregression, Variance decomposition
    JEL: C53 E44 F42
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Mazen J. Al Shobaki (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Samy S. Abu Naser (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Youssef M. Abu Amuna (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Suliman A. El Talla
    Abstract: This study aims to identify the degree of importance of human resources management electronically and its impact on the different administrative levels in the Palestinian universities. The study population consists of the different administrative levels in the universities. The number of employees reached (239). The study sample consisted of (148) individuals from the different administrative levels and (35) from IT centers. The response rate was (84.31%). The researchers used the questionnaire as a tool for study and the analytical descriptive approach to achieve the objectives of the study. The SPSS program was used to analyze the study data. The results of the study showed that the clarity of the importance of human resources management electronically and the support of senior management are available and contribute greatly to the process of transition to electronic management in general and e-HRM in particular. There is clarity in the sample of the study of the importance of human resources management electronically, fully aware of their multiple benefits, this greatly helps to adopt and develop e-HRM and the development of the members of the study from the higher administrative levels and those who influence decision-making. The University's system of human resources management varies in different ways from one university to another and has a significant impact on human resources management electronically, and researchers explain this difference due to the different priorities of universities and their development plans and their material and human resources. The concept of e-management is a broad concept, encompassing several different electronic systems, and the transition to it requires extensive changes, from organizational structure to business processes. The most important electronic management systems that universities develop according to their need are electronic human resources systems. Universities also provide different means of communication with their employees using various ICT means such as e-mail and SMS. The use of e-HR forms is still very limited and greatly reduces e-HRM benefits. Self-service systems are not interrelated with pay and pay systems and researchers explain this because e-HRM systems are not complete at universities. Universities follow a strategy of combining traditional and electronic business, a positive indicator of the transition to e-management. The study reached several recommendations with the aim of benefiting from the promotion of the electronic management approach. The most important of these recommendations is the establishment of official and practical approaches to electronic administration and its systems. To keep abreast of the rapid changes in electronic management and ICT tools and means. The development of the administrative structure of universities commensurate with the process of change to electronic management. E-HRM development in universities, as they have a key role to play in the success of the transition to e-management. Expand the use of electronic forms to manage the affairs of employees to take advantage of its multiple advantages such as reducing expenses and reduce the time of completion of transactions. The adoption of internal electronic correspondence instead of paper, which contributes significantly to reduce administrative financial expenses, and the speed of completion of work. The integration of computerized management information systems and the linking of what is currently fully established as the beginning of a gradual transition to electronic management. For example, the pay system can be linked to the attendance system, self-service, or performance appraisal with the pay system.
    Keywords: Palestinian universities,higher education institutions,administrative levels,Electronically Human resources management
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Huzeyfe Torun; Semih Tumen
    Abstract: Although the season of birth variable is often used as an instrumental variable to estimate the rate of returns to schooling in the labor economics literature, there is an emerging consensus that the season of birth is systematically associated with later outcomes in life such as the educational and labor market success; thus, it is highly likely non-random. Using a large micro-level data set from Turkey, we argue that the degree of this non-randomness can be even larger in a developing-country context. Specifically, we show that around 20 percent of all individuals in Turkey have January as their registered month of birth due to a combination of geographical, seasonal, institutional, and idiosyncratic factors that lead to misreporting. We further document that being January-born strongly predicts worse socio-economic outcomes in later life. We show that this can be a serious problem in evaluating policies that define eligibility based on the month of birth such as compulsory schooling and compulsory military service laws that set the eligibility birth date cutoff as the January 1st. We confirm the validity of this concern based on a series of regression discontinuity design exercises. We conclude that, in a developing-country context, additional caution should be exercised when using the season-of-birth variable as a statistical tool.
    Keywords: Season-of-birth effects, IV, Education, Earnings,Family background, Misreporting
    JEL: C26 J13
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Abdelmajid Saidi (UMI - Université de Moulay Ismail); Mohammed Diouri (UMI - Université de Moulay Ismail)
    Abstract: This paper seeks to know whether the Green-Morocco Plan (GMP), the new Moroccan agricultural strategy launched in 2008, improves food self-sufficiency. In view of the importance of cereals in Moroccans’ diet, the volatility of foods price in the international market, the population increase and the competition that is not always fair, long-term availability and physical access of people to food should be ensured. Self-sufficiency, which is one of the indicators of food safety, must therefore become a priority again. GMP is so far showing some positive results. Morocco reduced the poverty rate. The Agricultural Gross Domestic Product improved as well as agricultural employment and agricultural export of some products. However, one of the policies adopted by GMP is the conversion of cereal farming to arboriculture. Under this policy, cereal imports increased, without being covered by an adequate food export increase. The Green-Morocco Plan makes Morocco increasingly dependent on the world market either to export its agricultural products or to import its needs for cereals. From an environmental point of view, fruits require more water than do cereals for their production. Therefore, we believe that grain crops must be encouraged to ensure food security. As for fruit trees cultivation, it should be encouraged on lands that are not suitable for cereals, such as mountains and rugged terrains.
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Hulya Saygili; K. Azim Ozdemir
    Abstract: This paper explores the roles different categories of infrastructure investment play in promoting economic growth across regions in Turkey. Two different approaches, namely partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and heteroskedastic panels corrected standard errors (HPC-SE) are used to compute regional physical, social and financial infrastructural indices and their impacts on income. Overall, the results reveal that differences in infrastructural endowments across Turkish regions explain a significant portion of regional disparity in per capita income. While financial infrastructure has a positive direct effect only, physical and social infrastructures contribute both directly and indirectly. We suggest that policy makers focus primarily on investing in physical infrastructure in order to mitigate the regional income disparity. Secondly, improving education, health and housing facilities as well as financial activities would contribute further diminishing income disparity across regions.
    Keywords: Infrastructure investment, Economic growth, Regional analysis, Turkey
    JEL: C3 H54 O18 O47
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Evren Ceritoglu
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between house prices and household consumption in Turkey. We utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2014. We construct a pseudo-panel data set using birth-year cohorts following Deaton (1985). We find that house price changes have a positive and significant effect on the growth of cohort consumption. Moreover, the effect of house price changes is stronger for home-owners and it intensifies as we move from young cohorts to old cohorts. We observe that there is a marginally significant and relatively weak relationship between the growth of cohort consumption and house price changes for tenants. However, our pooled sample set is restricted to young and middle-aged cohorts for tenants. In addition, we find that the rise of home-ownership ratio increases the growth of cohort consumption, while the spread of having outstanding housing debt depresses the growth of cohort consumption. Therefore, our empirical findings are in favor of the wealth channel argument.
    Keywords: House prices, Cohort consumption, Birth-year cohorts, Pseudo-panel
    JEL: C23 D12 R21
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Ozgoren, Ayse; Ergocmen, Banu; Tansel, Aysit
    Abstract: The relationship between fertility and employment among women is a challenging topic that requires further exploration, especially for developing countries where the micro and macro evidence fails to paint a clear picture. This study analyzes the two-way relationship between women’s employment and fertility in Turkey using a hazard approach with piece-wise constant exponential modelling, using data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that makes use of an event history analysis to analyze this relationship within a developing country context. Specifically, a separate analysis is made of the association between the employment statuses of women in their first, second, third, and fourth and higher order conceptions, and the association of fertility and its various dimensions with entry and exit from employment. The findings suggest that a two-way negative association exists between fertility and employment among women in Turkey, with increasing intensities identified among some groups of women. Our findings also cast light on how contextual changes related to the incompatibility of the roles of worker and mother have transformed the fertility-employment relationship in Turkey, in line with propositions of the role incompatibility hypothesis.
    Keywords: Fertility, Employment, Women, Event History Analysis, Turkey
    JEL: C41 J13 J16
    Date: 2017–12–20
  13. By: Socrat Ghadban (Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management - Lebanese University [Beirut]); Maya Shames (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Haifa Abou Mayaleh (Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management - Lebanese University [Beirut])
    Abstract: Lebanon has witnessed in 2015 a severe trash crisis that had serious health and environmental impacts. Trash crisis has recently evolved, and is mostly related to inefficiency in networking, political leadership, and strategic management system and information flow. Trash crisis can be avoided with effective crisis management plan and waste management strategies. The latter is gaining broader attention, especially in the developing countries, with waste management being not well implemented. Until now, no studies have been conducted to measure and evaluate the impacts of the garbage crisis on the Lebanese tourism industry, which is a main income generator sector. Therefore, this research seeks to examine how tourism organizations, especially hotels as main producer of solid waste, are managing their waste to reduce the impacts of the crisis and to understand visitors’ perceptions of solid waste management strategies adopted by hotels. 18 hotels’ managers in Beirut were interviewed and 124 questionnaires were filled by hotels’ guests, who were randomly selected in different areas of the capital. Results revealed that large hotels tend to effectively manage their solid waste which allowed them to overcome the crisis with minimal negative impacts. For the majority of respondents, selecting hotels is not primarily influenced by the implementation of solid waste management strategies. Moreover, results showed that 46% of respondents have hesitated to visit Lebanon during the crisis.
    Keywords: Trash crisis,Hotels,Sustainable development,Solid waste management,Crisis management,Lebanon
    Date: 2017
  14. By: Adnan, Wifag (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Miaari, Sami H. (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: Striving for gender equality presents major challenges but the benefits are vast, ranging from reduced conflict, both within and between communities, to higher economic growth. Unfortunately, Israel's gender wage gap remains one of the highest among developed countries, despite a growing reverse gender gap in educational attainment. Investigating the gender wage gap for the Jewish majority and for the Arab minority, we find evidence of gender segregation by industry and occupations in addition to a glass ceiling effect for Jewish and Arab women. Using data from the Israeli Household Income Survey and electoral data from the Israeli parliamentary elections (2009), this paper provides novel evidence of the role of voter preferences in explaining the persistence of gender pay gaps. Importantly, we find strong evidence of an association between a higher share of votes allocated to nationalist parties, in a given locality, and a larger, (adjusted), gender wage gap for both Jewish-Israelis and Arab-Israelis.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, voting behavior, glass ceiling, glass door, social attitudes, discrimination
    JEL: J21 J31 J61 J45 C14 C24
    Date: 2018–01
  15. By: Nasri, Khaled; Belhadj, Besma
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze multidimensional poverty in the different regions of Tunisia. The counting approach is used to identify households that are multidimensionally poor and to calculate poverty rates in different geographic areas in Tunisia. In this research, special emphasis is placed on the subgroup decomposability property and the dimensional breakdown. This approach helps us to understand the contribution of each region to the national poverty level and to assess the extent to which dimensional deprivation contributes to poverty measures. The results show that disentangling the sources of household deprivation in each region of Tunisia and calculating the dimensional breakdown by region provides a comprehensive picture of multidimensional poverty in Tunisia and will help decision makers to implement an effective targeting policy.
    Keywords: Multidimensional Poverty, Counting Approach, the Dual-Cutoff Method, Decomposability, Dimensional Breakdown.
    JEL: I32
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Meltem Gulenay Chadwick; Emine Meltem Bastan
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the monthly volatility of consumer and producer beef prices for Turkey, using both univariate and multivariate models and investigate whether beef imports can stabilize the volatility and high inflation level in beef market. To do so, first we decide on the best volatility model for both consumer and producer beef inflation using a variety of different univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. Second, we check if the quantity of imported beef is significant in our best volatility model for consumer and producer beef prices. Lastly we compare our univariate analysis with a multivariate DCC-GARCH model. Our results reveal that while univariate GARCH models do not successfully capture the effect of import policy on the producer and consumer beef inflation, multivariate model is superior in illustrating the effect of import policy on beef inflation.
    Keywords: Beef prices, Price volatility, Univariate GARCH models, Beef import policy, DCC-GARCH model
    JEL: C32 C58 E31 Q13
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Asem Alhomaidi; M. Kabir Hassan; William J. Hippler
    Abstract: We compare the performance of Islamic and conventional stock returns in Saudi Arabia in order to determine whether the Saudi market exhibits characteristics that are consistent with segmented markets and investor recognition effects. We sample the daily stock returns of all Saudi firms from September 2002 to 2015 and calculate important measures, including idiosyncratic volatility (Ang et al, 2006), market integration (Pukthuanthong and Roll, 2009), systematic turnover (Loughran and Schultz, 2005), and stock turnover and liquidity (Amihud, 2002). Integration tests report that Islamic stocks are more sensitive to changes in global and local macroeconomic variables than conventional stocks, supporting the hypothesis that the Islamic and conventional stock markets are segmented in Saudi Arabia. In addition, our results show that Islamic stocks have a broader investor base, lower idiosyncratic risk, higher systematic turnover, and are more liquid than conventional stocks, which support the investor recognition hypothesis. Our results provide new evidence on asset pricing in emerging markets, the evolving Islamic financial markets, and the potential impact of other implicit market barriers on global financial markets.
    Keywords: Segmented markets, Islamic finance, Emerging markets, Asset pricing, Investor recognition
    JEL: G1 G2 F3 P5
    Date: 2018–01
  18. By: Mna, Ali; Younsi, Moheddine
    Abstract: The main purpose of this article is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. Our contribution is, firstly, to calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two indicators over the period 1965-2015. Secondly, based on the VAR model, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the selected variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance via their influence on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative impact on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Thirdly, we attempt, through a SVAR model, to examine the short run structural dynamics between the selected variables. Results reveal that the Tunisian economy is highly influenced by external monetary conditions. This influence is demonstrated through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. In conclusion, our findings reflect that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy.
    Keywords: Monetary conditions index, SVAR approach, Structural monetary shocks
    JEL: E43 E51 E52
    Date: 2018–01–04
  19. By: Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Meltem Topaloglu
    Abstract: For emerging market economies, changes in import prices and exchange rate are among the major determinants of inflation. In general, studies analyzing the pass-through of foreign prices into inflation consider the headline inflation. However, such an approach may suffer from aggregation bias and may not reveal the differences in pass-through due to heterogeneous nature of the CPI. In this paper, we try to investigate the impact of such issues on the pass-through analysis for Turkey over the sample period of 2005-2015. We propose a disaggregated approach and run an extended VAR model for each of 152 subcomponents of the CPI separately. Then, we aggregate the individual impulse-responses of those components with significantly positive response to exchange rate and import prices. Our results reveal a significant heterogeneity in pass-through coefficients across subcomponents of the CPI. We show that the foreign price pass-through is also sizeable in food and services, as well as in core goods and energy. Our findings further point to a clear aggregation bias. Once the disaggregated approach is used, we report a higher pass-through from the exchange rate to the headline inflation.
    Keywords: Inflation, Pass-Through, Exchange-Rate, Import Prices, VAR Analysis, Turkey
    JEL: E31 E58 F31
    Date: 2017
  20. By: Amal A. Al Hila (Palestine Technical College); Eitedal M. S. Alhelou (University of Palestine); Mazen M. Al Shobaki (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University); Samy S. Abu Naser (Department of Information Technology - Al-Azhar University)
    Abstract: The study aimed to identify the impact of the application of information technology to improve e-learning at the Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Technology (MTIT) from the standpoint of employees. The study used the descriptive and analytical approach. The study population consists of 50 employees working in the field of technology at the Ministry of Telecommunications. The researchers used the comprehensive inventory method. Fifty questionnaires were distributed to all members of the study population. The number of questionnaires returned was 44, indicating that the response rate was (88%). The results showed a correlation between corporate governance of information technology in all its dimensions (planning, organizing, monitoring and evaluation, support and delivery, acquisition and implementation) and to improve the level of e-learning from the perspective of workers in the Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Technology. Also it showed the presence of a statistically significant effect between IT governance (planning, organizing, monitoring and evaluation, support and delivery) and to improve the level of e-learning after (the acquisition and implementation) had no effect in improving the electronic level of training. The study recommended the need to apply the COBIT framework as a tool to measure the level of information technology at the Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Technology Governance.
    Keywords: e-training,COBIT,IT,Governance
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Anas Yassine; Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul
    Abstract: This article aims to explore an empirical approach to analyze the macroeconomics determinants of default of borrowers. For this purpose, we have measured the impact of the adverse economic conditions on the degradation of the credit portfolio quality.In our paper, we have shed more light on the question of the aggravation of default rate. For this, we have undertaken econometric modeling of the default rate distribution of a Moroccan bank while we inspired from some studies carried out. Our findings demonstrate that the decline in the economic situation has a positive impact on default of borrowers. Hence, the bank also has responsibility for monitoring the adverse economic conditions.
    Date: 2018–01
  22. By: H. Murat Ozbilgin
    Abstract: This paper first specifies the medium-term growth cycles for the Turkish economy. The impact of the frequency transformation methods and the time-serious filters on cycles and potential output are discussed. Then a composite leading indicator (CLI) is constructed that is correlated with the third lead of the GDP with a coefficient of 0.9. The CLI signals 11 out of 13 turning points in the Turkish growth cycle in the 1993-2016 period. The CLI is coincident with the remaining two turning points, hence still providing early warning. Within the same period, only two false signals are generated by the CLI. Finally, building on the seminal paper by Neftci (1982), a method for computation of the turning point probabilities is developed. The virtue of the method is that it takes into account the observed deepness and steepness in the series.
    Keywords: Time-series filters, Growth cycles, Composite leading indicators, Turning point probabilities
    JEL: E32 E37 E66
    Date: 2017
  23. By: Saidi, Hichem; El Montasser, Ghassen; Ajmi, Noomen
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relationship between renewable energy and economic growth taking into account institutional measures. Using panel cointegration tests, we found that these two variables and any institutional measure, of all considered in this study, are co-integrated. Furthermore, we found a strong causality running from renewable energy and any institutional measure, except for law and order, to growth. A reverse path is also observed since there is also a strong causality running from growth to renewable energy when the causal regression includes any institutional measure. Policy implications are accordingly derived.
    Keywords: Cross-section dependence; Panel unit root tests; Panel cointegration tests
    JEL: C33 Q2 Q20
    Date: 2018–01–23
  24. By: LEGOUGUI, Fateh; CHIKHI, Mohamed
    Abstract: يهدف هذا البحث إلى نمذجة أسعار أسهم الإغلاق اليومية لشركة اتحاد اتصالات السعودية المدرجة ضمن قطاع الاتصالات في سوق المال السعودي خلال الفترة الممتدة من 01 جانفي 2010 إلى غاية 31 ديسمبر 2015. وبعد استخدام العديد من نماذج ARCH المتناظرة وغير المتناظرة، وجدنا من خلال المفاضلة بين هذه النماذج و بناءا على عدة معايير أن أحسن نموذج يمكنه تمثيل السلسلة الزمنية لأسعار الأسهم هو نموذج ARIMA(1,1,3) مع خطأ TGARCH(1,1). و أظهرت النتائج أيضا أن الصدمات الموجبة المترافقة مع الأخبار الجيدة تعطي تقلبات أقل حدة من تلك الصدمات السالبة المترافقة مع الأخبار السيئة. The aim of this paper is to model the daily closing prices of Etihad Etisalat in the Saudi's telecom sector during the period from 01 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. After using and comparing many symmetric and asymmetric ARCH models, we found that the best model, which represent the stock price series is ARIMA(1,1,3)-TGARCH(1,1). The results also showed that positive shocks associated with good news give less severe fluctuations than negative shocks associated with bad news
    Keywords: الكلمات المفتاحية: السوق المالي، نماذج ARIMA، نماذج ARCH، أسعار الأسهم.; Financial Market, ARIMA Models, ARCH Models, Stock Prices.
    JEL: C51 C58 G10 G12
    Date: 2017–03
  25. By: Okan Eren; Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Mustafa Utku Ozmen
    Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de gida fiyatlari son yillarda genel fiyat seviyesinden daha hizli bir oranda artmaktadir. Genel fiyat seviyesindeki degisime yaptigi katki da dikkate alindiginda gida enflasyonunun temel surukleyicilerinin bilinmesi buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismada, ureticiye odenen fiyat, uretim, ihracat ve ithalat miktarlarinin tuketici fiyatini nasil etkiledikleri panel vektor otoregresyon yontemi kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Bu dogrultuda, tuketici fiyatlari endeksi (TÜFE) gida sepetinin yaklasik yarisini kapsayan secilmis urunlerden olusan bir orneklem kullanilmistir. Calismanin bulgulari, tuketici fiyatlarini en guclu sekilde etkileyen unsurlarin, sirasiyla, ureticiye odenen fiyat ve yurt icine arz edilen uretim miktari oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Bu cercevede, elde edilebilecek en temel politika cikarimi ise gida enflasyonunun azaltilmasinda yurt ici arzi artirmaya yonelik politikalarin oldukca etkili olabilecegidir. Diger taraftan, yurtdisindan belirgin olarak daha ucuza temin edilebilecek urunlerin donemsel ve gecici olarak ithal edilmesi, gida enflasyonundaki artisi sinirlamak ve gida fiyatlarindaki oynakligi gidermek acisindan dengeleyici bir rol oynayarak fiyat ve arz istikrarina katkida bulunabilecektir. [EN] Food prices in Turkey are rising at a faster rate than the general price level. Taking into account its contribution to the change in the general price level, it is important to have a good understanding of the main drivers of food inflation. By utilizing a panel vector autoregressive model, this study analyzes the effects of producer prices, quantity of production as well as export and import quantities on consumer food prices. The results provide evidence that consumer prices are affected mostly by producer prices and quantity of production supplied to the domestic market. In this respect, as a major policy implication, it can be inferred that supply-enhancing measures can be very effective on reducing food inflation. On the other hand, temporary and seasonal importation of items that can be acquired significantly at lower prices from abroad can serve to stabilize prices and supply by reducing price volatility and restricting the rise in food inflation.
    Date: 2017
  26. By: Huseyin Songul
    Abstract: [TR] 2007-2008 yillarinda yasanan dunya gida krizi gida guvenligi ve surdurulebilirligine iliskin onemli bir gundem olusturmus ve gida krizlerinin erken tespitine yonelik calismalara ivme kazandirmistir. Bu yondeki calismalar agirlikli olarak arz soklarinin meteorolojik ve fenolojik yontemler kullanilarak erken tahminini hedef almakla birlikte, piyasa fiyatini erken uyari acisindan oncu gosterge olarak kullanan yontemler de gelistirilmistir. Bu baglamda, Birlesmis Milletler Gida ve Tarim Orgutu (FAO) de “Kuresel Bilgi ve Erken Uyari Sistemi (GIEWS)” kapsaminda tarimsal urun fiyat degisimlerini temel alan bir “fiyat uyari gostergesi” yontemi gelistirmistir. Bu calismada oncelikle soz konusu yontem tanitilmis, calismanin devaminda ise FAO fiyat uyari gostergesi yontemi TUFE sepeti icinde yer alan farkli nitelikteki islenmemis gida urunlerine uygulanmistir. Bu cercevede, FAO fiyat uyari gostergesinin Turkiye’de reel fiyati uzun sureli inis ve uzun sureli cikislar gosteren nohut ve dana eti gibi islenmemis gida urunleri icin piyasadaki olasi arz acigina iliskin onemli sinyaller verebilecegi gorulmustur. [EN] World food crisis, which happened in 2007 and 2008, raised the public interest in the issues of food security and sustainability, and accelerated the efforts aimed at early determination of food crises. Although these efforts are mostly based on early prediction of supply shocks by using meteorological and phenological data, other methods employing market prices as an early warning indicator were developed as well. In this context, Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO) developed a price warning indicator method that grounds on agricultural product price changes as part of Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). The first part of this study presents a detailed description of aforementioned FAO method. Afterwards, FAO price warning indicator method was applied to a variety of unprocessed food products of the consumer price index basket in Turkey. FAO price warning indicator method is able to give important signals for the potential supply shortages of agricultural products such as chickpea and veal, real prices of which display persistent rises and falls.
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Canan Yuksel Yucel
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calisma, 2010-2016 doneminde aylik kira enflasyonu uzerinde etkili olan faktorleri, bolgesel farkliliklari da dikkate alarak incelemektedir. Konut fiyatlari, konut kredisi kullanimi, asgari ucret ve enflasyon beklentilerinin aciklayici degisken olarak yer aldigi analiz sonuclari, konut fiyatlari, asgari ucret ve enflasyon beklentilerindeki degisimin kira enflasyonunu ayni yonde etkiledigini, konut kredisi kullanimindaki degisim ile kiralar arasindaki iliskinin ise ters yonlu oldugunu gsstermektedir. [EN] This study aims to document the factors that may affect rent inflation over 2010-2016 period, by taking the regional variation into account. The estimations that use house prices, housing credits, minimum wage and inflation expectations as explanatory variables show that changes in house prices, net minimum wage and inflation expectations affect rent inflation positively, while change in housing credits is negatively related to rent inflation.
    Date: 2017

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