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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Abstract The demographic dividend is the window of opportunity provided by changes in the age structure of a population. It occurs because of the decline of both fertility and mortality rates. Data from the World Bank are used for descriptive statistics, regression analyzes with and without robust standard-errors, in addition to performing Granger-Causality tests. The results indicate that estimated time trends for fertility and mortality are significantly decreasing for Arab countries. Findings also indicate that the demographic dividend has occurred in the recent decade in most of Arab countries except for Egypt. This paper shows also the causal links between the dependency ratio (change in the population age structure) and the working age population, unemployment, economic development, government and private expenditures on health and education, education, and female participation in education variables. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Demographic Dividend, Arab Countries, Granger Causality. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82880&r=ara |
| By: | A. Hakan Kara; Fethi Ogunc; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study investigates the key drivers of consumer inflation in Turkey during the inflation targeting period covering 2006-2016. We estimate a reduced-form time-varying parameter (TVP) Phillips curve for core inflation, defined as CPI excluding unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco. TVP estimates suggest that there is a clear decline in import price pass-through in recent years whereas pass-through from exchange rates to domestic inflation is relatively stable. Using this setup, we compute the contribution of macro variables such as exchange rate, import prices, output gap and real unit wages to inflation. We document the changes in inflation dynamics over the past decade, particularly focusing on the two distinct episodes of inflation targeting in terms of monetary policy implementation and discuss implications for price stability. Overall, our results suggest that achieving price stability requires a holistic approach embedding both cyclical and structural policies. [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye’de uygulanmakta olan enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin 2006-2016 yillarini kapsayan donemi icin enflasyonun temel makro belirleyicileri incelenmektedir. Parametreleri zamana gore degisen bir Phillips egrisi tahmin edilerek elde edilen bulgular, ithalat fiyat geciskenliginin son yillarda azaldigina, doviz kuru geciskenliginin ise goreli olarak daha istikrarli seyrettigine isaret etmektedir. Bu yaklasim kullanilarak, doviz kuru, ithalat fiyatlari, cikti acigi ve reel birim ucret gibi makro degiskenlerin enflasyona katkisi hesaplanmaktadir. Calismada ayni zamanda enflasyon hedeflemesinin iki farkli alt donemi ele alinarak degisen enflasyon dinamikleri irdelenmekte ve politika cikarimlari yapilmaktadir. Bulgularimiz, fiyat istikrarina ulasmak icin konjonkturel ve yapisal politikalarin bir arada ele alindigi butuncul bir yaklasimin onemine isaret etmektedir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1703&r=ara |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Keskin, Halil Ibrahim (Cukurova University) |
| Abstract: | The strong relationship between various health indicators and education is widely documented. However, the studies that investigate the nature of causality between these variables became available only recently and provide evidence mostly from developed countries. We add to this literature by studying the causal effect of education on days hospitalized and days out of work for health reasons. We consider two educational reforms. One is the educational expansion of the early 1960s and the other is the 1997 increase in compulsory level of schooling from five to eight years. However, due to the possibility of weak instruments we do not further pursue this avenue. We focus on individuals in two cohorts namely, 1945–1965 which is an older cohort and 1980–1980 which is a younger cohort. We estimate Tobit models as well as Double Hurdle models. The results suggest that an increase in years of education causes to reduce the number of days hospitalized for both men and women unambiguously and the number of days out of work only for men while an increase in education increases the number of days out of work for a randomly selected women. |
| Keywords: | education, days hospitalized, days out of work, education reform, Tobit model, double hurdle model, gender, Turkey |
| JEL: | I15 J16 J18 C34 C36 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11210&r=ara |
| By: | Selen Andic |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study re-estimates the normalized CES production function for Turkey with the revised GDP data. It employs a supply-side system of equations, which incorporates the production function and two first-order conditions. Results indicate that the elasticity of substitution is 0.6 and still significantly below 1. Labor has a positive but slowing productivity growth while capital has a falling productivity. Labor-augmenting technical progress is dominant in the long run as the total factor productivity growth is positive. The revised data implies a higher potential growth for Turkey compared to the old data. Strong capital accumulation and improvement in the productivity seem to be the reasons for the change in potential growth. [TR] Bu calisma, normalize edilmis sabit ikame esneklikli uretim fonksiyonunu Turkiye’nin revize edilmis milli gelir verileriyle tekrar tahmin etmeyi amaclamaktadir. Bunu yaparken, uretim fonksiyonu ve iki adet birinci derece kosullarindan olusan arz yonlu bir denklem sistemi kullanilmistir. Sonuclar, ikame esnekliginin 0,6 ile 1’in hala anlamli bir sekilde altinda oldugunu gostermektedir. Isgucu verimliligi yavaslayarak artmakta, sermaye verimliligi ise azalmaktadir. Uzun vadede isgucu verimliliginin sermaye verimliligine kiyasla baskin oldugu bulunmakta, bu durum ekonomi genelindeki verimlilik buyumesinin pozitif olmasinda kendini gostermektedir. Revize edilmis veri, eski veriye kiyasla, Turkiye’de potansiyel buyumenin arttýgini ortaya koymaktadir. Bu artisin sebebi, guclu sermaye birikimi ve verimlilikteki iyilesme olarak gozukmektedir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1713&r=ara |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek Demirhan; Hakan Ercan |
| Abstract: | Turkey experienced three economic crises in recent decades that provides natural experiment environment for researchers. In this paper, we studied the impact of recent three different economic crisis on export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms using firm level annual panel data for 1990-2014 period. By investigating the impact of crisis on both the decision to become an exporter and volume of exports, export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms under crisis is diagnosed. Estimation results reveal differentiated impact of different types of crisis on export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms. According to the results, export boom observed with 1994 crisis was mainly due to the increase in extensive margin. Devaluated currency together with shrinking domestic demand in 1994 crisis lead to an increase in export propensity of the firms. Although sharp currency devaluation and domestic demand contraction supported incumbent exporters to increase their export volume, the accompanied credit crunch in 2001 crisis hindered entrance of new firms into export markets. Significant international trade collapse with 2008 global financial crisis caused declines in both export propensity and export volume of the Turkish manufacturing firms. These findings have implications on both what types of export promotion and incentives should be provided (or not) and to whom this assistance should be provided for dissimilar shocks in an emerging market economy like Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Export behavior, Crisis, Firm-level data, Turkey, Logit model, Selectivity correction |
| JEL: | F14 L25 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1802&r=ara |
| By: | Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [EN] Wage rate is one of the most important variables for policy makers and macro economists. It can be used as an indicator of economic growth and inflationary pressures. However, the average wage growth could also lead to misinterpretations as it involves composition changes in the labor market. In this study, we use Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique to filter out the effects of these composition changes on wage growth for the period of 2005-2016. Our results suggest that transformation of the economic structure and the labor force composition increased wages in this period. Besides, the magnitude of this composition effect is not homogeneous across years. Hence, conclusions based on aggregate wage data should be drawn carefully. [TR] Ucretlerdeki artis orani politika yapicilar ve makro iktisatcilar icin en onemli degiskenlerden birisidir. Ucretlerde artis ekonomik buyume ve enflasyonist baskilar konusunda bir gosterge olarak kullanilabilir. Ancak, ortalama ucret artisi verisi isgucu piyasasindaki kompozisyon degisimlerini de icerdiginden hatali yorumlara yol acabilir. Bu calismada, 2005-2016 donemi icin, Oaxaca-Blinder ayristirma yontemi kullanilarak soz konusu kompozisyon degisimlerinden arindirilmis ucret artis verisi elde edilmistir. Calismanin bulgulari, ekonomik yapidaki ve isgucundeki donusum surecinin bu donemde ucretler ustunde artirici bir etkisinin olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, soz konusu kompozisyon etkisinin boyutu yillar icinde farklilik gosterebilmektedir. Bu nedenle, ortalama ucret artislari kullanilarak yapilacak yorumlarda temkinli olunmalidir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1706&r=ara |
| By: | Docquier, Frédéric; Tansel, Aysit; Turati, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations, short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population. They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless, the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration, self-selection, cultural traits, gender-egalitarian attitudes, religiosity, MENA region. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82778&r=ara |
| By: | Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren (Department of Demography, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies); Banu Ergocmen (Department of Demography, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, IZA (Germany) and ERF (Egypt)) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between fertility and employment among women is a challenging topic that requires further exploration, especially for developing countries where the micro and macro evidence fails to paint a clear picture. This study analyzes the two-way relationship between women’s employment and fertility in Turkey using a hazard approach with piece-wise constant exponential modelling, using data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that makes use of an event history analysis to analyze this relationship within a developing country context. Specifically, a separate analysis is made of the association between the employment statuses of women in their first, second, third, and fourth and higher order conceptions, and the association of fertility and its various dimensions with entry and exit from employment. The findings suggest that a two-way negative association exists between fertility and employment among women in Turkey, with increasing intensities identified among some groups of women. Our findings also cast light on how contextual changes related to the incompatibility of the roles of worker and mother have transformed the fertility-employment relationship in Turkey, in line with propositions of the role incompatibility hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Employment, Women, Event History Analysis, Turkey. |
| JEL: | C41 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1801&r=ara |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Turknur Brand |
| Abstract: | [EN] This note discusses the responding behaviour of Business Tendency Survey (BTS) participants to the question of general economic situation. The general tendency of perception and attitude change due to economic situation is measured by this question via a three-level Likert scale of “more optimistic; unchanged; more pessimistic” on a monthly basis. The high percentages of middle alternative responses over time draw our attention to look into this topic in more detail from a cognitive point of view. In this study, by implementing an ad hoc interpolation method, how different the balance calculated would be under certain assumptions is studied. The method, for testing purposes, not for data editing, studies firms’ behaviour in choosing the middle category response. The possible different interpretations of this response category do not cause any substantial changes on our interpretation of the economic tendencies. While “unchanged” response keeps its information content, relative increase in this response can be a signal for uncertain periods in economy. [TR] Bu notta, Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi katilimci firmalarinin genel gidisat sorusunu cevaplama davranisi tartisilmaktadir. Genel gidisata iliskin algi ve beklentiler, aylik olarak “daha iyimser; ayni; daha kotumser” seceneklerinden olusan uclu Likert olcekli soru ile derlenmektedir. Seceneklerden “ayni” cevaplarinin zaman icerisinde hep yuksek oranda olmasi, bu konuya daha detayli calismak icin ilgi uyandirmistir. Literaturde notr cevap kategorisinin ne sekillerde yorumlanabilecegi tartisilmaktadir. Bu calismada, gerekli varsayimlarla deneysel bir interpolasyon metodu uygulandiktan sonra hesaplanan denge degerinin ne kadar farkli olduguna bakilmistir. Test amacli olup veri yenilemek icin olmayan bu metot, firmalarin “ayni” cevap kategorisini nasil degerlendirebildigi uzerine yogunlasmistir. Olasi farkli degerlendirmeler, beklentileri yorumlama seklimizde kritik degisiklikler yaratmamaktadir. “Ayni” secenegi kendi bilgi icerigini korumakla birlikte bu secenekteki goreceli artis ekonomide belirsiz zamanlarin habercisi olabilir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1705&r=ara |
| By: | Oguzhan Cepni; Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | [EN] Yield curve is one of the most fundamental tools used by central banks. The most popular method to estimate yield curve by the central banks is Extended Nelson Siegelmodel. However, there are some technical differences in yield curve estimation. These differences are mainly related to the choice of objective function and the maturity spectrum of bonds in the data set. In this respect, this note aims to find out the optimal combination of the Turkish Treasury bond market yield curve based on the Extended Nelson Siegel model. Main findings indicate that the exclusion of long-term bonds results in a better in-sample fit for the short-term bonds.On the other hand, the inclusion of repo transactions leads to a worsening in in-sample fit across all maturity segments regardless of the choice of the objective function. Regarding the choice of objective function, weighted price minimization provides better in sample-fit of the yield curve for all different maturity segments when the repo transactions are excluded. [TR] Getiri egrisi, merkez bankalari tarafindan kullanilan en temel araclardan birisidir. Merkez bankalarinca getiri egrisi tahmin etmek icin en yaygin kullanilan yontem Genisletilmis Nelson Siegel modelidir. Getiri egrisinin tahmininde bazi teknik unsurlar onem arz etmektedir. Soz konusu unsurlar, amac fonksiyonunun secimi ve tahminde kullanilacak tahvil ve bonolarin vade dagilimi olarak iki ana baslik altinda incelenebilir. Bu baglamda, bu notta Genisletilmis Nelson Siegel modeli kullanilarak, Turkiye Hazine tahvil piyasa getiri egrisi icin en uygun amac fonksiyonu ve vade dagilimi bilesimi incelenmektedir. Temel bulgular, uzun vadeli tahvillerin veri setinden cikarilmasinin kisa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin tahminine olumlu yonde katki sagladigina isaret etmektedir. Bununla beraber repo islemlerinin veri setine dahil edilmesi amac fonksiyonuna bagli olmaksizin tum vadelerde getiri egrisi tahminini kotulestirmektedir. Amac fonksiyonu secimi olarak ise, agirliklandirilmis fiyat farklarinin minimize edilmesi repo islemlerinin eklenmedigi durumda daha iyi sonuc vermektedir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1702&r=ara |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | [EN] Yield curves provide critical information to both policy makers and market practitioners. The most commonly used yield curve methodologies are Extended Nelson-Siegel (ENS) and B-spline Basis with various smoothing penalty functions. In this paper, the Cubic B-spline Basis with variable roughness penalty (VRP) methodology is applied on Turkish Treasury bonds and is compared with the ENS methodology. The yield curves constructed under both methods give quite similar results across different maturities. Comparison of in-sample performances indicates that both methods provide similar zero rate curves but in-sample fit of Cubic B-spline Basis with VRP is superior to that of ENS, in particular at the long end of the term structure. Out-of-sample errors of both models are quite close to each other. Nevertheless, out-of-sample performance of the VRP model is superior at the short end of the term structure whereas the ENS dominates at the long end. [TR] Getiri egrileri politika yapicilar ve piyasa oyunculari acisindan onemli bilgi degeri tasimaktadirlar. Genisletilmis Nelson Siegel (ENS) ve cesitli duzgunlestirme ceza (smooth penalty) fonksiyonlari ile uygulanan kubik B-spline (VRP), en populer getiri egrisi hesaplama yontemlerindendir. Bu notta, Turkiye Hazine tahvilleri icin duzgunlestirme cezasi ile beraber uygulanan Kubik B-spline yontemi tahmin edilmekte ve sonuclar Genisletilmis Nelson-Siegel yontemi ile kiyaslanmaktadir. Iki yontem altinda da elde edilen cesitli vadelerdeki getiriler birbirine oldukca yakin seviyededir. Orneklem ici karsilastirma yapildiginda, VRP yonteminin ENS’ye gore ozellikle uzun vadeli getirilerde daha iyi sonuclar verdigi bulunmustur. Orneklem disinda ise, iki yontemin de birbirine oldukca yakin sonuclar verdigi gozlenmistir. Ancak, VRP yontemi getiri egrisinin kisa ucunda, ENS yontemi ise getiri egrisinin uzun ucunda daha iyi orneklem disi tahmin saglamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1711&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Souag (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Philippe Adair (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Nacer Eddine Hammouda |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01667438&r=ara |
| By: | KORI YAHIA, Abdellah |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of Okun’s (1962) relationship for Algeria for the 1970- 2015 period. Two methodologies are employed to estimate the Okun coefficient: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) linear model and a Bayesian Normal Linear Regression model. The results indicate an Okun coefficient of about -0.2 which suggests some rigidity of the labour market in Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Linear Models, Bayesian Techniques, Unemployment, Okun Coefficient, Simulation Techniques; |
| JEL: | C51 |
| Date: | 2018–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83707&r=ara |
| By: | Philippe Adair (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Imene Berguiga |
| Abstract: | This is the first paper to address the premium-social performance relationship upon an unbalanced panel of 66 microfinance institutions (MFIs) in the MENA region over 2004-2014. According to a fixed effects model using instrumental variables, financial sustainability is the primary determinant of premium (i.e. the financial margin), whereupon social performance has a positive albeit insignificant impact. Mature MFIs maintain financial sustainability and serve rather non-poor clients, although they tame interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Social performance,Financial margin,Interest rates,MENA region,Microfinance institutions |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01667346&r=ara |
| By: | Modai-Snir, Tal (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Many studies of urban and neighbourhood change investigate changes in the relative positions of neighbourhoods within an urban region, without looking at the underlying processes. Often, changes in socio-spatial structures reflect intensifying socio-spatial divisions caused by both increasing inequality and urban development processes. This paper will examine the roles of increasing inequality and urban-development processes in reshaping the socio-spatial structure of the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area in Israel. Tel-Aviv is an interesting case study because of the persistent north-south socioeconomic divide. During the research period (1995–2008) inequality in Israel has risen substantially following the integration in the global economy; at the same time, the metropolitan area went through extensive urban development and expansion to the rural fringe. To examine the contributions associated with increasing inequality and urban-development processes to income changes among metropolitan neighbourhoods, we use a method that was originally presented in the context of individual income mobility and recently applied in the context of neighbourhood change. The results show that urban processes and inequality intensified the historical divide in different ways, and each factor can be associated with a typical spatial pattern. The interaction between the factors is diverse; in some places they reinforced each other, whereas in some they operated at opposite directions and offset each other. |
| Keywords: | neighbourhood change, socioeconomic change, spatial polarization, socio-spatial structure, inequality, socio-spatial divide |
| JEL: | O18 P25 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11219&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Souag (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Philippe Adair (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée); Nacer Eddine Hammouda |
| Abstract: | We identify the main characteristics of informal jobs and their evolution between 2001 and 2010 from national employment surveys on cross-section over 2001-2010 conducted by the ONS in Algeria. We mobilize a descriptive analysis and econometric analysis of the probability of being in informal employment. It shows that this period of informal employment in Algeria seems to have a traditional function of "anti-crisis" strategy. It mainly affects young people, women, less educated, those who operate in the informal sector or in the construction sector, and those who are not permanent employees, self-employed or unpaid family workers. Keywords: Algeria, informal employment, logit model. |
| Abstract: | Nous identifions les principales caractéristiques des emplois informels et leur évolution entre 2001 et 2010 à partir des enquêtes nationales sur l’emploi en coupe transversale réalisées par l’ONS en Algérie. Nous mobilisons une analyse descriptive puis une analyse économétrique de la probabilité d’occuper un emploi informel, à travers lesquelles il est avéré que durant cette période l’emploi informel en Algérie semble avoir une fonction traditionnelle de stratégie «anti-crise». Il touche principalement les jeunes, les femmes, les moins éduqués, ceux qui exercent leur activité dans le secteur d’activité de la construction, et ceux qui sont salariés non permanent, travailleurs indépendants ou travailleur familiaux non rémunérés. Mots clé : Algérie, emploi informel, modèle logit. JEL: J21, C25 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01667432&r=ara |
| By: | Nadia Zrelli; Imene Berguiga; Ali Abdallah; Philippe Adair (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Abstract: | Les banques islamique (BI) sont confrontées aux risques conventionnels, mais aussi à des risques particuliers relatifs à la nature des contrats et que peuvent renforcer leur enchevêtrement. Ces spécificités posent le problème d'une gestion efficace de la vulnérabilité des BI à l'égard des risques et de l'impact sur leur profitabilité. Cette étude mesure et analyse les effets des risques sur la performance et la stabilité des BI de la réion MENA au cours de la période 2007-2014. La première partie est consacrée à la revue de la littérature sur la performance et les risques des BI. La deuxième présente la méthodologie ainsi que les données utilisées pour le calcul des indicateurs d'efficience et du risque spécifique. La troisième analyse et interprète les corrélations de rang. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01667423&r=ara |
| By: | Y. TAMSAMANI, Yasser |
| Abstract: | Morocco’s healthcare expenditures regime growth has been in decline since 2010. The average annual growth rate went from 7.9% over the period of 1996 to 2009 to 4.4% in the recent years. The objective of this paper is to identify the demographic and macroeconomic determinants that shape healthcare expenditures behavior in Morocco, and to evaluate their respective contributions to the shift observed in the trajectory of healthcare expenditures growth. On the one hand, results show that the combined demographic factors of population growth and demographic transition account for a 14% growth rate decline in healthcare expenditures. On the other hand, the evaluation of macroeconomic determinants based on econometric modeling, shows that the income elasticity of healthcare expenditures is less than a unit ranging from 0.5 to 0.8. It also yields a positive price semi-elasticity with an estimated value of 0.02, and a 0.01 (-0.01) sensitivity coefficient to the variation of the weight of public (versus private) funding in total healthcare expenditures. Therefore, as of 2010 the contributing factors to the slowing down in healthcare expenditures growth can be presented as follows: 45% is due to declining healthcare relative prices, 20 % is due to a shrinking share of public funding, and 11% is due to a decelerating economic growth. The estimated models’ residual contains the remainder (10%) shares of contributions. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare expenditures, demography, macroeconomic determinants, elasticities, Morocco |
| JEL: | H51 I12 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2017–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83996&r=ara |
| By: | Fatih Yilmaz; Mehmet Selman Colak |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’de finansal olmayan (reel sektör) firmalarin yabanci para borclulugunun son on senedeki gelisimi ve potansiyel finansal risklerin dagilimi detayli olarak incelenmistir. Analizde firma kredileri populasyonunu olusturan Turkiye Bankalar Birligi Risk Merkezi verisi ile firmalarin yukumluluk bilgileri yaninda, varliklarinin da yabanci para – Turk Lirasi ayirimi yapilabilen Borsa Istanbul reel sektor firma verileri kullanilmistir. Risk Merkezi verilerine gore yabanci para kredileri genel olarak yuksek miktarda kredi bakiyesine sahip az sayida firmada ve uzun vadelerde yogunlasmaktadir. Doviz cinsi krediler agirlikli olarak ihracat geliri olan imalat sanayi sektorunde yogunlasmasina karsin enerji, ulastirma, haberlesme ve insaat sektorleri doviz kredi paylari, son donemdeki buyuk alt ve ust yapi projelerinin etkisiyle, onemli olcude artmistir. Benzer sekilde, Borsa Istanbul firmalari doviz acik pozisyonu, aktifleri bakimindan buyuk olcekli, yuksek ihracat gelirleri olan ve turev islemleriyle kur risklerine karsi daha fazla koruma saglayan firmalarda yogunlasmaktadir. 2013 ve sonrasindaki kur soklari Borsa Istanbul firma bilancolarinda bir miktar bozulmaya yol actigi gozlense de bu bozulma bircok firma icin finansal strese dusecek seviyelerde gerceklesmemistir. Kur risklerinin yonetimi acisindan bu bulgu olumlu degerlendirilse de daha siddetli kur soklarinin etkilerini azaltmak icin etkin kur riski yonetimi ve doviz riskine yonelik gozetim altyapisinin guclendirilmesi onem arz etmektedir. [EN] In this study, developments on the foreign currency indebtedness of non-financial (real sector) Turkish firms over the last decade and the distribution of potential financial risks have been examined in detail. In the analysis, Banking Association of Turkey- Risk Center data, covering the population of corporate credits, as well as the Borsa Istanbul reel sector company data, where asset and liability currency denomination can be separated out, are used. According to the Risk Center database, foreign currency loans mainly concentrated in a small number of firms with high credit balance, and in long maturities. Despite the fact that FX credits are heavily concentrated in the manufacturing sector, the FX credit shares of energy, transportation, communication and construction sectors have increased considerably following the recent large scale infrastructure and construction projects. Similarly, Borsa Ýstanbul firms’ FX open positions are concentrated among the ones with large asset size, high export revenues, and holding relatively larger hedge positions against to currency risks. While the post-2013 exchange rate shocks seem to have caused a considerable deterioration in the BÝST firm's balance sheets, this deterioration has not occurred at the levels that can result in financial stresses for most of the firms. Although this finding is considered positively, it is important to strengthen effective currency risk management and foreign currency risk surveillance infrastructure in order to reduce the effects of more severe exchange rate shocks. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1709&r=ara |
| By: | Y.Emre Akgunduz; Altan Aldan; Y.Kenan Bagir; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | [TR] Genc ve dinamik bir nufusa sahip olan Turkiye’de surdurulebilir yuksek buyume oranlarina ulasmak icin genclerin dogru alanlarda istihdam edilmeleri onem arz etmektedir. Son yillarda Turkiye’de genclerin isgucune katilimi belirgin bir sekilde artmistir. Genclerin isgucune katilimindaki guclu artisin karsisinda yeterli istihdamin olusturulabilmesi icin genc isgucunun yapisindaki degisiklikler ve isgucu piyasasinin dinamikleri goz onunde bulundurulmalidir. Bu notta Turkiye’deki genc issizliginin kaynaklari arastirilmakta ve bu konuda politika onerileri sunulmaktadir. Genc nufusun beseri sermayesinin son yillarda onemli olcude gelistigi gozlenmektedir. Bu baglamda, kadinlarin ve yuksekogretim mezunlarinin genc isgucu ve genc issizler icindeki payi son yillarda ciddi miktarda yukselmistir. Genc isgucunun kompozisyonundaki bu degisikliklerin de etkisiyle, genc isgucunun egitim ve yetenekleri ile isgucu piyasasinin talepleri arasinda farkliliklar ortaya cikmistir. Arastirmanin sonunda, bu farkliliklarin azaltilmasina ve egitimden istihdama gecisin kolaylastirilmasina yonelik bazi politika onerilerine dikkat cekilmistir. [EN] The effective employment of youth is very important for reaching the goal of sustainable growth rates for Turkey which has a young and dynamic population. The youth labor force participation rate has significantly increased in recent years. Creating sufficient employment opportunities for the youth requires the knowledge of the changing composition of the youth labor force and the demands of the employers. This research investigates the sources of the youth unemployment in Turkey and provides policy suggestions. The human capital of the youth has changed dramatically in the recent years. The share of women and college-degree individuals in the youth labor force has increased substantially. As a result, there occurred mismatches between the education and skill set of youth labor force and the demands of the employers. At the end of this note, policy suggestions to the effect of reducing the discrepancy between the demand and supply side of the labor market and facilitating the school-to-work transition are briefly mentioned. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1714&r=ara |
| By: | Tanju Capacioglu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sektorunun yurt disindan kaynak temin ettigi ulke/banka sayisinda yasanan artis sonucu azalan yogunlasmanin, banka dis borclarinin kuresel likidite gelismelerine olan duyarliligina etkileri analiz edilmistir. Son donemde, sektorun geleneksel finans merkezlerinden temin ettigi borclari yenilemeye devam etmekle birlikte yeni ulkelere de erisim sagladigi ve diger ulkeler merkezli bankalarin onemli birer fon kaynagi haline geldigi gozlenmektedir. Tahmin sonuclari, borc temin edilen ulke/banka sayisinda artan cesitlilik sonucu azalan yogunlasmanin, banka dis borclarinin kuresel likidite gelismelerine olan duyarliligini azaltmak suretiyle kuresel likiditenin tahsis ve araciliginda sistemik oneme sahip herhangi bir ulke ya da bankada yasanabilecek finansal soklarin ulkemize yansima riskini sinirladigina isaret etmektedir. [EN] This study analyzes the impacts of increasing diversification in the countries/banks that provide funds to Turkish banking sector on the sensitivity of cross-border bank loans to the global liquidity conditions. Recently, it has been observed that the sector continues to roll-over its debts from traditional financial centers, but also provides access to new countries/banks, and other country-based banks has become an important source of funds for Turkish banking sector. Estimation results indicate that increasing diversification of lender countries/banks lessens the sensitivity of cross-border bank loans to the global liquidity conditions and thereby limit the spillover effects of any financial shocks occurred in systemically important countries or banks. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1710&r=ara |
| By: | Yasemin Erduman; A. Arzu Yavuz |
| Abstract: | [TR] TCMB tarafindan yayimlanmakta olan mevcut birim isgucu maliyeti bazli reel kuru endeksi sadece gelismis ulkeleri iceren sinirli bir kapsama sahiptir. Gerek hesaplamaya dahil edilen ulke sayisinin azligi, gerek temsil oraninin dusuklugu ve gerekse gelismis ulkeler lehine olan yanlilik, mevcut endeksin saglikli bir rekabet gucu gostergesi olarak kullanimini guclestirmektedir. Bu notta, mevcut endeksin kapsaminin genisletilmesi suretiyle yillik frekansta turetilen yeni birim isgucu maliyeti bazli reel kur endeksleri hakkinda bilgi sunulmaktadir. 2003-2016 yillari icin hesaplanan yeni endeksler, gelismis ulkeler lehine olan yanliligi azaltilmis daha dengeli bir gosterge ihtiyacini gidermekte ve boylelikle TCMB tarafindan yayimlanmakta olan tuketici ve uretici fiyatlari bazli diger reel kur endeksleri ile karsilastirilabilir nitelik kazanmaktadir. Mevcut endeks, kuresel kriz sonrasinda Avrupa’daki toparlanmanin gecikerek isgucu piyasalarini olumsuz etkilemesi nedeniyle 2010 yili sonrasinda TL’nin deger kazandigini gosterirken, kapsami genisletilen yeni endeksler diger reel kur gostergeleriyle uyumlu olarak TL’nin soz konusu donemde deger kaybettigine isaret etmektedir. [EN] The current unit labor cost based real exchange rate index published by the CBRT has a limited coverage and comprises only developed countries. Both the low number of countries in coverage, and the limited representation rate, along with the bias towards developed countries, lay the question marks on the use of the current index as a healthy competitiveness indicator. This note introduces the new unit labor cost based real exchange rate indices, calculated for 2003 - 2016 on an annual basis, with extended coverage that reduce the bias towards developed countries. Thereby the indices fulfill the need for more balanced competitiveness indicators and also become comparable with the other consumer and producer prices based real exchange rate indices published by the CBRT. While the current index indicate appreciation of the Turkish lira after 2010, due to the slow recovery of labor markets in Europe after the global financial crisis; the new coverage-extended indices show that the Turkish lira depreciated, in line with the other real exchange rate indicators. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1712&r=ara |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay; A. Arzu Yavuz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu’nun milli gelir verilerinde yaptigi guncelleme sonrasi iktisadi faaliyete dair hangi gostergenin takip edilmesi gerektigi ve tahmin modellerinde ne tur gostergelerin kullanilmasinin faydali olacagi konusu siklikla gundeme gelmektedir. Bu notta, soz konusu hususlari ele almak amaciyla yeni milli serisinin kisa donemli tahminine yonelik cesitli model sonuclari ozetlenmektedir. Calisma kapsaminda; reel gostergeler, finansal veriler, anket verileri ile fiyat ve butce istatistiklerine iliskin 379 farkli seriden meydana gelen bir veri seti olusturulmus ve bu verilerin yeni milli gelir serisini tahmin performansina gore en iyi sonucu veren modeller belirlenmistir. En iyi tahmin sonucunu veren modellerde vergi gelirleri ve tahsili gecikmis alacak oranlari gibi degiskenlerin yer aldigi bulgulanmistir. Eski milli gelir serisinin tahmin edildigi modellerde imalat sanayi uretimi basarili sonuc verirken, yeni milli gelir serisinin tahmininde imalat sanayi uretimi yerine sektorlerin ihracat paylarina gore agirliklandirilarak kullanilmasinin tahmin performansini iyilestiren bir etken oldugu kaydedilmistir. [EN] The revision of the national income series by the Turkish Statistical Institute brought up a question as to what kind of indicators should be used to monitor economic activity and which variables can be used in forecasting models. This study aims to address these issues by estimating various short-term forecasting models for the new national income series. Accordingly, a comprehensive data was formed including 379 series, which are comprised of real sector indicators, financial data, survey-based data as well as price and budget statistics, and the best models were selected on the basis of their forecasting performance. In this context, the best performing models include tax revenues and non-performing loans. Meanwhile, manufacturing industry production performed quite well in forecasting the old national income series, whereas sectoral data based on export share is more successful in forecasting the new income series. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1708&r=ara |