nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2018‒01‒08
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Skill Mismatch and Migration in Egypt and Tunisia By Anda Mariana David; Christophe Jalil Nordman
  2. Education Effects on Days Hospitalized and Days out of Work by Gender: Evidence from Turkey By Aysit Tansel; Halil Ibrahim Keskin
  3. Morocco and ECOWAS: A strategic adhesion with big potential for Moroccan SMEs By Hamza El Guili
  4. The Credit Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy in Tunisia By Mna, Ali; Younsi, Moheddine
  5. Do Emigrants Self-Select Along Cultural Traits? Evidence from the MENA Countries By Frédéric Docquier; Aysit Tansel; Riccardo Turati
  6. Birth and Employment Transitions of Women in Turkey: Conflicting or Compatible Roles? By Abbasoğlu Özgören, Ayşe; Ergöçmen, Banu; Tansel, Aysit
  7. Saving Behavior of Non-Financial Firms in Turkey By Hamza Demircan; Sumru Oz

  1. By: Anda Mariana David (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Christophe Jalil Nordman (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to shed light on the issue of skill mismatch in the context of return migration in Egypt and Tunisia. Using data on both return and potential migrants in Egypt and Tunisia, we analyze the skills that migrants acquire before and during migration and the way these skills are used upon return. We find evidence of skill mismatch, especially in Tunisia. The undereducation phenomenon is more prevalent among return migrants, indicating that they make up for their lower education using their migration experience. Finally, we estimate the determinants of skill mismatch on the Egyptian and Tunisian labour markets and find a significant negative effect of return migration on the probability of being undereducated.
    Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est d’apporter un éclairage sur la question de l'inadéquation des qualifications dans le cadre de la migration de retour en Egypte et en Tunisie. En utilisant à la fois des données sur les migrants de retour et sur les migrants potentiels en Egypte et en Tunisie, nous analysons les qualifications que les migrants acquièrent avant et pendant la période de migration et la façon dont ces compétences sont utilisées à leur retour. Nos résultats confirment l’existence d’un fort degré d'inadéquation des qualifications, en particulier en Tunisie. Le phénomène de la sous-éducation est plus présent pour les migrants de retour, indiquant qu'ils compensent leur faible niveau d'éducation en utilisant leur expérience migratoire. Enfin, nous examinons les déterminants de l'inadéquation des qualifications sur les marchés du travail égyptien et tunisien et trouvons en effet une corrélation négative et significative de la migration de retour sur la probabilité d'être sous-éduqué.
    Keywords: Tunisia,Egypt,labor market,skill mismatch,Return migration,Migration de retour,inadéquation des qualifications,marché du travail,éducation,Tunisie,Egypte
    Date: 2017–10–19
  2. By: Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, IZA (Germany) and ERF (Egypt)); Halil Ibrahim Keskin (Department of Econometrics, Cukurova University)
    Abstract: The strong relationship between various health indicators and education is widely documented. However, the studies that investigate the nature of causality between these variables became available only recently and provide evidence mostly from developed countries. We add to this literature by studying the causal effect of education on days hospitalized and days out of work for health reasons. We consider two educational reforms. One is the educational expansion of the early 1960s and the other is the 1997 increase in compulsory level of schooling from five to eight years. However, due to the possibility of weak instruments we do not further pursue this avenue. We focus on individuals in two cohorts namely, 1945-1965 which is an older cohort and 1980-1980 which is a younger cohort. We estimate Tobit models as well as Double Hurdle models. The results suggest that an increase in years of education causes to reduce the number of days hospitalized for both men and women unambiguously and the number of days out of work only for men while an increase in education increases the number of days out of work for a randomly selected women.
    Keywords: Education, Days hospitalized, Days out of work, Education reform, Tobit model, Double Hurdle model, Gender, Turkey.
    JEL: I15 J16 J18 C34 C36
    Date: 2017–12
  3. By: Hamza El Guili (University Abdelmalek Essadi)
    Abstract: The Small and Medium sized enterprises are an essential component of the world’s economy. They represent more than 95% of the global existing companies and they largely contribute to the jobs creation inside many countries. In Morocco for example, the SMEs represent the large majority of active companies in the market and contribute to 40% of private investments and to 30% of exportations. The aim of this paper is to perform a systematic and recent literature review to determine the different theories of the internationalization of SMEs. The selected theories are treated from three major perspectives. In addition, this paper discusses the Moroccan recent politic of integration in Africa and the eventual adhesion of the country to the Economic Community of West African States. This adhesion will offer more opportunities to the Moroccan SMEs in West Africa.
    Keywords: SMEs, Morocco, Internationalization process, ECOWAS
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Mna, Ali; Younsi, Moheddine
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the importance of the credit channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Tunisia. Using a VAR approach, we attempt to empirically examine the responses of the main aggregates of the Tunisian economy to monetary policy shocks over the period 1965-2015. Our empirical results showed that credit has a significant effect on investment and inflation. Indeed, the cointegration relationship, coupled with the weak exogeneity test, shows that credit is an endogenous variable and therefore the long-term equation found is a credit equation. The crucial role of credit channel is argued by the goal of price stability expected by any monetary policy. The analysis of monetary shocks shows the importance of exchange rate policy and the local currency devaluation on the financing mode. It is observed that Tunisian economy is dominated by external conditions. This dominance is confirmed by extensive using of external debts and trade agreements with the dominant countries. Ultimately, our findings suggest that policymakers should act on the level of economic activity and inflation, on two terms. The first is in short-run, by acting on the interest rate and the second is in long-run, by controlling the exchange rate.
    Keywords: Credit channel, monetary policy transmission, VAR approach, impulse analysis, monetary shocks
    JEL: E43 E51 E52
    Date: 2017–12–28
  5. By: Frédéric Docquier; Aysit Tansel; Riccardo Turati
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations, short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population. They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless, the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries.
    Keywords: international migration, self-selection, cultural traits, gender-egalitarian attitudes, religiosity, MENA region
    JEL: F22 O15 J61 Z10
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Abbasoğlu Özgören, Ayşe; Ergöçmen, Banu; Tansel, Aysit
    Abstract: The relationship between fertility and employment among women is a challenging topic that requires further exploration, especially for developing countries where the micro and macro evidence fails to paint a clear picture. This study analyzes the two-way relationship between women’s employment and fertility in Turkey using a hazard approach with piece-wise constant exponential modelling, using data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that makes use of an event history analysis to analyze this relationship within a developing country context. Specifically, a separate analysis is made of the association between the employment statuses of women in their first, second, third, and fourth and higher order conceptions, and the association of fertility and its various dimensions with entry and exit from employment. The findings suggest that a two-way negative association exists between fertility and employment among women in Turkey, with increasing intensities identified among some groups of women. Our findings also cast light on how contextual changes related to the incompatibility of the roles of worker and mother have transformed the fertility-employment relationship in Turkey, in line with propositions of the role incompatibility hypothesis.
    Keywords: Fertility,Employment,Women,Event History Analysis,Turkey
    JEL: C41 J13 J16
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Hamza Demircan (Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Reserch Forum and Koc University); Sumru Oz (Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Reserch Forum)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a method to calculate undistributed profits, thus saving rates of non-financial firms using only the information given in their balance sheets. This allows us to analyze the saving behavior of non-financial firms even in the absence of their statement of cash flows, which contains "dividend payments" data. The balance sheets of non-financial firms are provided by TurkStat only for 2013 and 2014, so this paper is confined to the cross sectional analysis of the saving behavior of non-financial firms in Turkey. We find that the saving rate increases as past net profit margin increases for firms with profits in the preceding year. For the firms which declare loss in the preceding year, saving rate increases as the past value of net profit margin decreases. Our findings for the rest of the firm-level determinants are consistent with the previous studies: Firm size plays a role on corporate savings; leverage ratio has a negative impact on the saving rate; and the positive impact of export orientation is higher for SMEs.
    Keywords: Firm Behavior, Savings of non-financial firms, Turkey.
    JEL: D22 E21 E22 C21 O16
    Date: 2017–12

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