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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The launch of Egypt’s reform program was a reversal from past policies, which had led to a buildup of large external and fiscal imbalances. With the liberalization of the foreign exchange (FX) market, the parallel market was eliminated and FX shortages virtually disappeared. The ongoing fuel subsidy reform, wage restraint, and significant revenue gains from the new value-added tax (VAT) underpin fiscal consolidation, which is critical for debt sustainability. Structural reforms to revive growth and employment are progressing well. The reform program received strong approval from the business community, international development partners and foreign investors. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Egypt; |
| Date: | 2017–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/290&r=ara |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier (FNRS & IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium; FERDI, France); Aysıt Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Riccardo Turati (IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes.To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations,short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population.They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless,the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration, self-selection, cultural traits, gender-egalitarian attitudes, religiosity, MENA region. |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1713&r=ara |
| By: | Jean Bonnet (Normandie University, UNICAEN, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France); Sana El Harbi (University of Sousse (Tunisia)); Faten Gazzah (Normandie University, UNICAEN, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France and University of Sousse (Tunisia)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the presence of micro-enterprises and regional development, as measured by a validated index of regional development, at the level of Tunisian delegations (small-scaled regions). Applying spatial measures and spatial econometric techniques on a data set of 262 delegations, our results show that in disadvantaged areas, a higher micro-enterprise presence is positively related to regional development. However, in relatively higher developed areas of Tunisia, micro-enterprises appear to play only a marginal role in regional development. Our results emphasise the importance of attracting large, capital-intensive firms in efficiency-driven economies like Tunisia. Nevertheless, although not quite a replacement for large firms, our results also show the important and positive role that micro-enterprises can play in regions where large, capital-intensive firms are absent. |
| Keywords: | Micro-enterprises, Tunisia, regional development, spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity |
| JEL: | L26 R11 C21 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2017-14&r=ara |
| By: | Abdurrahman B. Aydemir (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University, IZA, CREAM-UCL); Hakki Yazici (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides two contributions to the study of intergenerational mobility. First, we render a thorough characterization of education mobility in Turkey at the national level, including a three-generation mobility analysis. We find that the education mobility is significantly lower in Turkey compared to developed economies. Second, by exploiting large regional variation in the level of economic development across Turkey, we find that intergenerational education persistence is lower for females who grow up in more developed regions. The evidence is mixed for males. Interestingly, the development level of place of residence during earlier stages of childhood has much stronger association with education mobility compared to development level of place of residence during later stages. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility, education, economic development, three generations. |
| JEL: | J6 I2 R0 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1717&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Saudi Arabia has embarked on a bold reform program under Vision 2030. Reform momentum is strong, and good progress is being made in reform implementation. Saudi Arabia has reduced oil production under the OPEC+ agreement. Non-oil growth is expected to pick-up this year, but overall GDP growth will be close to zero given the decline in oil production. Growth is expected to strengthen over the medium-term as structural reforms are implemented. Risks mainly come from uncertainties about future oil prices and how ongoing reforms will impact the economy. |
| Date: | 2017–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/316&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth prospects for 2017 have improved, but nonagricultural growth is subdued. Inflation is low. The current account deficit is projected to decline and international reserves are at a comfortable level. The outlook is still subject to significant domestic and external risks, including weak growth in the euro area and geopolitical risks in the region. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2017–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/264&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Executive Board approved a two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement with Morocco in July 2014. The arrangement followed the 2012–14 PLL arrangement, and sought to build on the progress made in the previous two years. The authorities kept their objective of strengthening macroeconomic stability and promoting stronger and more job-rich growth. They committed to use the backstop provided by the PLL-supported program to help continue reducing vulnerabilities in the fiscal and external sectors, notably by reducing the fiscal and current account deficits. Per the authorities’ request, access was lower than under the previous PLL arrangement, equivalent to 550 percent of quota (about SDR 3.24billion). |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2017–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/265&r=ara |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier (FNRS, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and FERDI (France)); Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University (Turkey), IZA (Germany) and ERF (Egypt)); Riccardo Turati (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations, short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population. They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless, the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration, self-selection, cultural traits, gender-egalitarian attitudes, religiosity, MENA region |
| JEL: | F22 J61 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2017024&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/317&r=ara |
| By: | Socrat Ghadban (Lebanese university- Faculty of tourism and hospitality management); Maya Shames (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)); Jad Abou Arrage (Lebanese university- Faculty of tourism and hospitality management); Amal Abou Fayyad (Lebanese university- Faculty of tourism and hospitality management) |
| Abstract: | The concept of rural tourism encompasses many forms of tourism, such as nature-based tourism, community-based tourism, ecotourism, agro-tourism, and many more. Scholars consider tourism an important tool for revenue generation for communities living in rural areas. However, ineffective planning and management of the tourism industry may lead to undesired results in rural destinations, sometimes negatively affecting their rich natural and cultural heritage. In Lebanon, the last decade witnessed an increase of the rural tourism share within the tourism industry. Until today, there are no scientific studies of the supply and demand for this sector in Lebanon. This survey aims to analyze the demand for rural tourism among the domestic market hoping to provide information for actors in the field. The data showcase evidences about the needs, preferences and expectations of potential urban travelers, and factors affecting them. Data collection was completed in May 2014 with a sample of 436 persons, mostly Lebanese urban inhabitants, during the Travel Lebanon exhibition dedicated to promote rural tourism in Lebanon. The statistical analysis revealed important information about the perception and behavior of potential visitors. Personal characteristics, especially respondents’ personal income and cultural background, have been identified as major factors that affect their decision-making process regarding tourism services and facilities. Results also revealed a lack of awareness by the surveyed respondents about critical sustainable tourism issues in rural areas, and a visitor perception that is somewhat different from what is actually being provided by tourism stakeholders in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Rural tourism, domestic tourism, demand analysis, motivations and preferences |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-19&r=ara |
| By: | G\"okhan Ceyhan; Nermin Elif Kurt; H. Bahadir Sahin; K\"ur\c{s}ad Derinkuyu |
| Abstract: | Bidders in day-ahead electricity markets want to sell/buy electricity when their bids generate positive surplus and not to take an action when the reverse holds. However, non-convexities in these markets cause conflicts between the actions that the bidders want to take and the actual market results. In this work, we investigate the non-convex market clearing problem of Turkish market operator and propose three different rule sets. The first rule set allows both rejection of bids with positive surplus and acceptance of bids with negative surplus. The second and the third sets only allow one of these conflicted cases. By using total surplus maximization as the objective, we formulate three models and statistically explore their performance with the real data taken from Turkish market operator. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1712.00235&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The FSAP took place during the aftermath of a major shock for the Saudi economy, whose repercussions were still being felt despite a decisive policy response. During 2015–16, the decline in oil prices led to a sharp fall in oil revenues. Government spending was cut and payments to some suppliers were delayed, adding to the contractionary effects on the economy. Combined with sharply increased domestic government borrowing, these developments contributed to a tightening in banking system liquidity. SAMA injected liquidity and relaxed the prudential ratio on banks’ lending to deposits. These measures were effective and, by end-2016, as government arrears were being repaid, the situation in the banking system had started to normalize. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Saudi Arabia; |
| Date: | 2017–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/318&r=ara |
| By: | Rabi H. Mohtar |
| Abstract: | Understanding the interlinkages between Climate Change and the water-energy-food securities is critical for developing effective strategies to adapt to projected changes and ensure sufficient access to these resources for a growing global population. This Policy Brief identifies some of the key factors and specific climate change impact in each of the water, energy and food sectors and possible adaptation strategies will be explored. Climate change is already happening; according the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Earth’s temperature has warmed faster in the last 3 decades than ever before since 1850; oceans have warmed around 0.11 C per decade in the last 40 years. The rate of sea level rise is now more than 3 mm per year since the 1990s (due to climate change and other aspects) (IPCC, 2014). These and other changes in climate such as precipitation have sever implications for human systems. |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-1739&r=ara |