nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2017‒07‒02
five papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Value of Socialized Medicine: The Impact of Universal Primary Healthcare Provision on Mortality Rates in Turkey By Resul Cesur; Pinar Mine Gunes; Erdal Tekin; Aydogan Ulker
  2. Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia By Dahem, Ahlem; Skander, Slim; Fatma, Siala Guermazi
  3. Reaping the benefits of global value chains in Turkey By Volker Ziemann; Béatrice Guérard
  4. Systemic risk for financial institutions of major petroleum-based economies: The role of oil By Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Costola, Michele; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  5. Transferts de fonds des migrants vers les pays du Maghreb : quel impact sur le taux de change effectif réel ? By Nader Nefzi; Joël Oudinet; Mouez Soussi

  1. By: Resul Cesur; Pinar Mine Gunes; Erdal Tekin; Aydogan Ulker
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of universal, free, and easily accessible primary healthcare on population health as measured by age-specific mortality rates, focusing on a nationwide socialized medicine program implemented in Turkey. The Family Medicine Program (FMP), launched in 2005, assigns each Turkish citizen to a specific state-employed family physician who offers a wide range of primary healthcare services that are free-of-charge. Furthermore, these services are provided at family health centers, which operate on a walk-in basis and are located within the neighborhoods in close proximity to the patients. To identify the causal impact of the FMP, we exploit the variation in its introduction across provinces and over time. Our estimates indicate that the FMP caused the mortality rate to decrease by 25.6% among infants, 7.7% among the elderly, and 22.9% among children ages 1-4. These estimates translate into 2.6, 1.29, and 0.13 fewer deaths among infants, the elderly, and children ages 1-4, respectively. Furthermore, the effects appear to strengthen over time. We also show evidence to suggest that the FMP has contributed to an equalization of mortality across provinces. Finally, our calculations indicate that each family physician saves about 0.15, 0.46, and 0.005 lives among infants, the elderly, and children ages 1-4 per province every year.
    Date: 2017–06
  2. By: Dahem, Ahlem; Skander, Slim; Fatma, Siala Guermazi
    Abstract: Our paper follows the "Time Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility" (TVP VAR) approach developed by Primiceri (2005): Bayesian estimation with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Our paper contributes to the literature by examining if the impact of monetary and exchange rate shocks have varied over time in Tunisia through a disaggregated analysis of exchange rate pass-through by introducing time variability in two ways; firstly, by assuming That all the coefficients of the VAR model are variant in time, and secondly, in the temporal variance-covariance matrix, that is the error term’s volatility of the VAR model. The multivariate stochastic volatility aims at capturing the heteroskedasticity of shocks and non linearities in the simultaneous relationships between the variables of the model. In fact, it allows us to capture abrupt and progressive changes in state variables. Given the structural and institutional changes in the Tunisian economy over the last few decades, it is important to emphasize the possibility of such a temporal variation in the empirical methodology. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to apply the TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to the shocks of monetary and exchange rate policies in Tunisia. Overall, the findings confirm that the modeling approch; i.e the TVP-VAR, is the best tool to analyze the impact of these shocks in Tunisia. The results of the study can help the short- and long-term decision-makers in Tunisia to adopt appropriate strategies for conducting monetary policy as well as containing inflation.
    Keywords: TVP VAR approach – Bayesian estimation – Disaggregate Analysis – Exchange rate Pass-through – Monetary policy – Tunisia
    JEL: C11 C32 E31 E42 E52 E61 F31 F41 O55
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Volker Ziemann; Béatrice Guérard
    Abstract: Despite major progress, Turkey still lags behind most comparable countries in terms of exported value added per capita. Its remarkable economic performance over the past 15 years has not been sufficiently backed by gains in export market shares, in particular when measured in value added terms. While Turkey incorporates an increasing share of foreign value added in its own exports, its capacity to provide intermediate inputs to other countries’ exports is still limited. This paper argues that Turkey’s participation in global value chains remains below potential owing to institutional features that hamper efficient allocation of capital and labour, obstacles inherent in bilateral trade agreements and entry regulations, underdeveloped human capital and insufficient investment in innovation, R&D and knowledge-based capital. Progress along these dimensions would strengthen Turkey’s backward and forward trade linkages and contribute to rebalancing its growth model. The adjustment process towards a more export-oriented economy operating on a level playing field needs to be flanked by dedicated industrial, social and environmental policies to alleviate adverse consequences on displaced firms and workers and the ecosystem. Tirer les avantages des chaînes de valeur mondiales en Turquie Malgré des progrès, la Turquie accuse toujours un retard par rapport à la plupart des pays comparables en termes de valeur ajoutée exportée par habitant. Sa performance économique remarquable au cours des 15 dernières années n'a pas été suffisamment soutenue par des gains de parts de marché à l'exportation, en particulier lorsque ceux-ci sont mesurés en valeur ajoutée. Alors que la Turquie intègre une part croissante de valeur ajoutée étrangère dans ses propres exportations, sa capacité à fournir des intrants intermédiaires pour les exportations d'autres pays est encore limitée. Ce papier fait valoir que la participation de la Turquie dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales reste inférieure à son potentiel en raison de caractéristiques institutionnelles qui entravent l'allocation efficace du capital et du travail, des obstacles inhérents aux accords commerciaux bilatéraux et des règlements d'entrée de professions, du capital humain sous-développé et de l'insuffisance des investissements dans l'innovation, la R & D et le capital de connaissances. Progresser dans ces dimensions permettrait de renforcer les liens commerciaux en amont et en aval de la Turquie et de contribuer à rééquilibrer son modèle de croissance. Le processus d'ajustement vers une économie plus orientée vers l'exportation opérant avec des règles du jeu équitables doit être encadré par des politiques industrielles, sociales et environnementales dédiées à atténuer les conséquences néfastes sur les entreprises et les travailleurs déplacés et l'écosystème.
    Keywords: export performance, global value chains, trade and investment policies
    JEL: C33 F02 F14 O30
    Date: 2017–02–07
  4. By: Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Costola, Michele; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between systemic risk measures across 546 financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies and oil movements. In this paper, we follow two steps. In the first step, we estimate the delta conditional VaR (CoVaR) for the financial institutions and verify the interdependence between the systemic risk and oil, both on a graphical basis and by means of statistical tests. Further, we analyse the financial companies' connectedness through Granger causality-based networks, augmented with oil exposures. We observe the presence of elevated increases in the CoVaR levels, corresponding to the subprime and global crises, which are exogenous shocks to the financial institutions located in the GCC countries. In the second step, we consider the CoVaR by introducing oil returns as a state variable to detect if there is an improvement in the systemic risk measurement. The results provide evidence in favour of risk measurement improvements by accounting for oil returns in the risk functions, as monitored by coverage tests.
    Keywords: systemic risk,risk measurement,VaR,CoVaR,Oil,financial institutions,petroleum-based economies
    JEL: C22 C58 G01 G17 G20 G21 G32
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Nader Nefzi (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Joël Oudinet (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mouez Soussi (IHEC - Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Carthage)
    Abstract: L'impact des transferts de fonds sur le taux de change effectif réel est analysé pour un panel de trois pays du Maghreb, la Tunisie, le Maroc et l'Algérie entre 1980 et 2015, à l'aide d'un modèle en panel dynamique autorégressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL) qui permet d'analyser aussi bien la relation de court et de long terme. Les résultats montrent, contrairement à ce qui est trouvé pour les pays d'Amérique latine, que l'afflux de capitaux sous forme de transferts de fonds par les migrants entraîne, non pas une appréciation, mais une très légère dépréciation du taux de change effectif réel. En conséquence, les envois de fonds par leur impact sur le taux de change n'ont pas d'incidence négative sur la compétitivité prix des trois pays du Maghreb. Cet effet est légèrement plus marqué en Algérie qu'en Tunisie ou au Maroc. L'usage des transferts par les familles récipiendaires, les caractéristiques contra cycliques des entrées de devise, via les transferts des migrants et la politique de change menée réduisent ce risque d'appréciation du change, nommé « syndrome hollandais ».
    Keywords: Migration, Envois d'argent, taux de change effectif réel, Dutch Disease, syndrome hollandais, Algérie, Maroc, Tunisie.
    Date: 2017–03

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