nep-ara 2017-06-11 papers

on MENA - Middle East and North Africa

Issue of 2017‒06‒11
two papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

Rescaled Additivity Non-Ignorable (RAN) Model of Generalized Attrition By Emre Ekinci; Insan Tunah; Berk Yavuzoglu
Fiscal policy, Monetary policy and External imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa’s three largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt) By Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo

Rescaled Additivity Non-Ignorable (RAN) Model of Generalized Attrition

By:	Emre Ekinci (Department of Business Administration, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Insan Tunah (Department of Economics, Koc University); Berk Yavuzoglu (Department of Economics, Nazarbayev University)
Abstract:	We augment the Additively Non-ignorable (AN) model of Hirano et. al. (2001) so that it is suitable for data collection efforts that have a short panel component. Our modification yields a convenient semi-parametric bias correction framework for handling selective non-response that can emerge when multiple visits to the same unit are planned. Selective non-response can be due to attrition, when initial response is followed by nonresponse (the commonly studied case), as well as a phenomenon we term reverse attrition, when initial nonresponse is followed by response. Accounting for reverse attrition creates an additional identification problem, which we circumvent by rescaling. We apply our methodology to data from the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) in Turkey, which shares a key design feature (namely a rotating sample frame) with popular surveys such as the Current Population Survey and the European Union Labor Force Survey. The correction amounts to adjusting the observed joint distribution over the state space (inactive, employed, unemployed in our example) using reflation factors expressed as parametric functions of the states occupied in the initial and subsequent rounds. Our method produces a unique set of corrected joint probabilities that are consistent with externally obtained marginal distributions (in our case published official statistics). The linear additive version has a closed form solution, a feature which renders our method computationally attractive. Our empirical results show that selective attrition/reverse attrition in HLFS-Turkey is a statistically and substantially important concern.
Keywords:	attrition, reverse attrition, selective nonresponse, selection on observables, selection on unobservables, short panel, rotating sample frame, rotating panel, address-based sampling, labor force survey, ML estimation
Date:	2017–03
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:naz:wpaper:1702&r=ara

Fiscal policy, Monetary policy and External imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa’s three largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt)

By:	Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
Abstract:	This paper assesses which of the policy between fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies can redress external imbalances in the three largest African countries, namely Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. To this end, use is made of the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to assess the dynamic effects of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks mainly on the current account balances. The findings of the paper indicate that contrary to many emerging and developed economies the current account reacts to fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks in the three largest economies in Africa. More particular, the results of the empirical analysis show that the appreciation of the currency in the three economies lead to current account surplus. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most African economies have a high propensity to import with limited productive capacity for exports.
Keywords:	African economies, external imbalances, PVAR, macroeconomic policies
JEL:	C5 E60
Date:	2017–05–29
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79490&r=ara

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