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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Citak, Yusuf Ensar; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger-causal relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates using Turkey as a case study. Revealing this relationship will give us a roadmap to cure fragile Turkish economy. Standard time-series approaches are used to investigate this relation. Our empirical findings tend to indicate that there is a long run relationship between these variables and that the CPI appears to be the variable leading exchange rate and oil prices. The results are plausible and have strong policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, Exchange Rate, CPI, PPI, Turkey, cointegration, exogeneity, endogeneity |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79453&r=ara |
| By: | Sumru Oz (Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, whether there is a convergence of per capita incomes across Turkish provinces during 2004-2014 period is examined following the availability of per capita incomes of Turkish provinces for this period as of December 2016. Considering that firms and households of different regions within a country tend to have access to similar technologies, share a common central government, therefore have similar institutional setups and legal systems, and they can be assumed to have roughly similar tastes and cultures, absolute income convergence is expected to hold across regions of a country. The results of the nonlinear least squares regression show that the absolute convergence across 81 Turkish provinces, which is estimated as 1.2 per cent per year, is lower that than those estimated for the US states, Japan prefectures, and the members of the EU. However, once a proxy for human capital is included besides the initial level of per capita income as a second explanatory variable in the regression equation, the speed of convergence increases to 2.2 per cent per year. This implies that once the differences in educational attainment across Turkish provinces are held constant, there exists conditional income convergence of similar magnitude found in studies on convergence across regions of other economies. Taking into consideration the evidence that the attitude towards, especially girls' education differs to a large extent between eastern and western regions of Turkey, the same regressions are repeated for 41 western and 40 eastern provinces, separately. The results show that the estimated conditional convergence reaches as high as 4 per cent across eastern provinces, while it is around 2 per cent across western provinces once the ratio of the population with 15 years of age and over who completed at least high school is controlled for. This result implies that an effort to change attitude towards education in eastern Turkey is critical in increasing the speed of convergence, thus reducing income inequality across Turkish provinces. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Output Convergence, Human Capital, Turkey. |
| JEL: | O15 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1711&r=ara |
| By: | Veronica Kostenko (Laboratory for Comparative Social Research, Higher School of Economics, Russia); Eduard Ponarin; Musa Shteiwi; Olga Strebkova |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on transformations of gender attitudes in a set of Arab societies covered by the Arab Barometer. We analyze age and cohort differences in thirteen countries using generalized additive modeling (GAM). We argue that stagnation or even retrogression of gender attitudes in some societies may be caused in part by an ideological shift of the 1970s–1980s, from largely secular and socialist-oriented national movements of the 1950s–1960s to the more conservative period often associated with the rise of political Islam. On the other hand, the youngest cohorts in those societies that have always promoted conservative gender attitudes are getting somewhat more liberal, although they remain slightly less gender egalitarian compared to other societies. We test our assumptions using the example of Yemen that was divided into two parts between 1967 and 1990: The South supported by the Soviet Union and the North influenced by Saudi Arabia and the Western bloc. We trace the support for gender egalitarianism across generations in the two parts of Yemen and show that the secular socialist ideology made a profound imprint on the attitudes of a whole generation and made those who were in their twenties back in the 1960s more egalitarian than the young people these days. The same is true for the other countries of the region that had some socialist experience. |
| Date: | 2017–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1105&r=ara |
| By: | elmakki, asma; Bakari, Sayef; MABROUKI, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in Tunisia. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1969 and 2015 were tested using the Johansen co-integration analysis of VECM and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the long run term. Otherwise, and on the basis of the results of the Granger causality test, we noted the absence of a causal relationship between industrial exports and economic growth in the short term. These results provide evidence that industrial exports, thus, are not seen as the source of economic growth in Tunisia and suffer a lot of problems and poor economic strategy. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Export, Economic Growth, Tunisia, Cointegration, VECM and Causality. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79360&r=ara |
| By: | Marina Tolstel (Volgograd State University, Russia); Irina Anikina (Volgograd State University, Russia); Albina Gukova (Volgograd State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | The current stage of the economy’s development differs from the past ones in that the role of global infrastructure projects acquires ever more importance and that forming and designing of such programs becomes now a much more sophisticated process, all of this has led to a situation where we have to revise our system of economic methods of the evaluation benefits of a global infrastructure project for all involved countries. The existing methods and ways of evaluation influence global infrastructure projects on socio-economic development of the participating countries are to be complemented by new approaches reflecting the market changes and the advent of new financial instruments and stratagems. The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The authors crated methodological approach to the study of infrastructure projects influence on socio-economic development of the members based on the identification, evaluation and prediction of the influence of factors external and internal environment on the changing economic potential of the infrastructure projects participants. Adequate investment in the development of infrastructure is an important driver of long-term economic growth. Traditionally, infrastructure has been funded mostly through public investment. However, in view of scarcity of budgetary resources and lack of capacity within the government to implement these ambitious programs, the strategy of the government relies significantly on promoting investment through a combination of public investment and private participation (include foreign investors). The presented methodological approach allows to define and early diagnose the global infrastructure projects which facilitate a multiplication effect within the national economy. |
| Keywords: | global infrastructure projects, economic development, international investment, globalization |
| JEL: | B16 C18 F02 F21 F63 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no132&r=ara |
| By: | Marina Tolstel (Volgograd State University, Russia); Irina Anikina (Volgograd State University, Russia); Albina Gukova (Volgograd State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | The current stage of the economy’s development differs from the past ones in that the role of global infrastructure projects acquires ever more importance and that forming and designing of such programs becomes now a much more sophisticated process, all of this has led to a situation where we have to revise our system of economic methods of the evaluation benefits of a global infrastructure project for all involved countries. The existing methods and ways of evaluation influence global infrastructure projects on socio-economic development of the participating countries are to be complemented by new approaches reflecting the market changes and the advent of new financial instruments and stratagems. The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The aim of the paper is to evaluate influence the global infrastructure project on socio-economic development of the participating countries in the globalized world economy with respect to its main economic and social consequences and synergy effects (the case of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline). The authors crated methodological approach to the study of infrastructure projects influence on socio-economic development of the members based on the identification, evaluation and prediction of the influence of factors external and internal environment on the changing economic potential of the infrastructure projects participants. Adequate investment in the development of infrastructure is an important driver of long-term economic growth. Traditionally, infrastructure has been funded mostly through public investment. However, in view of scarcity of budgetary resources and lack of capacity within the government to implement these ambitious programs, the strategy of the government relies significantly on promoting investment through a combination of public investment and private participation (include foreign investors). The presented methodological approach allows to define and early diagnose the global infrastructure projects which facilitate a multiplication effect within the national economy. |
| Keywords: | global infrastructure projects, economic development, international investment, globalization |
| JEL: | B16 C18 F02 F21 F63 H54 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2017:no133&r=ara |