nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2017‒04‒23
fifteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Pattern of Comparative Advantage in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) By Roesmara Donna, Duddy; Widodo, Tri; Adiningsih, Sri
  2. The political economy of Middle East and North Africa oil exporters in times of global decarbonisation By Simone Tagliapietra
  3. Determinants of NEETs, using Granger Causality Tests: Applications to ECE and Arab Economies By Driouchi, Ahmed; Harkat, Tahar
  5. TFP Growth in Turkey Revisited: The E§ect of Informal Sector By Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu; Ceyhun Elgin; Oðuz Öztunalý
  6. Determinants of the Contemporary Inequality among MENA and African Countries: What are in the variation of Land and Natural Resource ownership? By Ece Guleryuz
  7. Consumer Loan Response to Permanent Labor Income Shocks: Evidence from a Major Minimum Wage Increase By Guney, Ibrahim Ethem; Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim; Tumen, Semih
  8. Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and An Application to Turkish Economy By Ceyhun Elgin; Burak Sezgin
  9. Optimal transfers with distribution regressions: An application to Egypt at the dawn of the XXIst century By Christophe Muller
  10. One Year of Government 34 of Israel: Leading Parties’ Positions on Key Issues By Yanovskiy Konstantin; Zatkovetsky Ilia; Entov Asya
  11. Standing in the Way: Comparing Constraints on Access to Justice After the Liberalization of Public Interest in By Matt Malone
  12. Les motifs d'arrêt de la scolarité dans la région de Marrakech By Alexandra Flayols
  13. أثر الحوكمة على عوائد الموارد الطبيعية : دراسة تطبيقية مع إشارة للدول العربية By Shaker, Saber Adly
  14. Dijital Bolunme Cercevesinde Turkiye'nin Durumunun Degerlendirilmesi By Baris Yildiz; Gizem Akbulut
  15. Turkiye'de Enerji Uretiminde Fosil Yakit Kullanimi ve CO2 Emisyonu Iliskisi: Bir Senaryo Analizi By Hakan Cetintas; I. Murat Bicil; Kumru Turkoz

  1. By: Roesmara Donna, Duddy; Widodo, Tri; Adiningsih, Sri
    Abstract: This paper investigates the comparative advantage pattern of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2000 and 2010. Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) Index, paired sample F-test, t-test, and Spearman’s Rank Correlation are applied, This paper concludes thatthere are significant differences in comparative advantages among countries in the MENA region for 2000 and 2010 period. In addition, the stronger competition occured in resource-poor and labor abundant, resource-rich and labor abundant, and resource-rich and labor importing countries.
    Keywords: comparative advantage, RSCA, MENA
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2017–04–01
  2. By: Simone Tagliapietra
    Abstract: Endowed with half of the world’s known oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a cornerstone of the global energy architecture. This architecture is currently undergoing a structural transformation, prompted by two different forces - decarbonisation policies and low-carbon technology advancements. The energy literature offers no comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the global energy transformation on the MENA region. This paper seeks to fill this gap by investigating the following research question - are MENA oil exporting countries equipped to prosper in times of global decarbonisation? Making use of the Rentier State Theory and of a business-as-usual projection of the exploitation of oil resources in MENA countries, we highlight on the lack of incentives for MENA oil exporters to pursue paths of economic diversification. On the basis of a scenario-based analysis, we illustrate that, should the Paris Agreement on climate change be implemented, MENA oil exporters would see their oil rents decline over the next few decades. MENA oil exporting countries are still not adequately equipped to prosper in a decarbonising world. Therefore, decarbonisation should represent an incentive for MENA oil exporters to pursue structural processes of transition from rentier to production states.
    Date: 2017–04
  3. By: Driouchi, Ahmed; Harkat, Tahar
    Abstract: Abstract The current paper aims at establishing the likely causality between NEETs and other economic, social and political variables in the countries of Central and East European economies (ECE) with a focus on the situation of Arab economies. A literature review on NEETs has allowed for finding the magnitude and extent of non-regular and vocation education besides non-employment among the youngest segments of the population. Granger causality tests are applied to the available data to establish the likelihood of the determinants of NEETs. The hypotheses for testing relate to the links between NEETs, education, employment, health, and governance variables. The findings show that there is causality between NEETs and other economic, social and governance indicators. The findings also indicate that NEETs do not have common traits as their determinants differ from a country to another. The NEETs have a unique model for each economy that causes or might be caused with one or a range of variables. These results emphasize that countries and especially Arab countries need to monitor NEETs and pursue analyzes that allow for the enhancement of their policy making processes using relevant and accurate information.
    Keywords: Keywords: NEETs, Arab countries, ECE countries, Granger causality.
    JEL: I25 J62
    Date: 2017–04–03
  4. By: Mustafa Göktu? Kaya (Tax Inspectors Association); Perihan Hazel Kaya (Selcuk University)
    Abstract: The country, where the individuals and institutions benefit from public services paying less taxes outside the country, is called tax haven countries.These countries is used as part of economic activities and they are preferred as the center of financial affairs so the phenomenon of interstate competition become a current issue. International tax competition is a tax policy which implementing that economic activity that occurred in another country to take his own country putting a lower tax rate.When taken out the country known as a tax haven it is said that this countries are too small and some of them? name and location in the map are unknown.The purpose of the study is to find out the relationship between of tax competition and tax haven in the World and Turkey. In this direction, firstly on the conceptual framework tax competition and tax havens issues will be discussed. Secondly, the effects of the relationship between tax competition and tax havens on fiscal policy will be examined. Finally, studies conducted on the fight against tax competition and tax havens in the World and Turkey will be examined.
    Keywords: Tax Competition, Tax Haven, Fiscal Policy, Turkey, Tax Haven Countries
    JEL: E00 E21
  5. By: Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu; Ceyhun Elgin; Oðuz Öztunalý
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: Ece Guleryuz
    Abstract: This paper examines the fundamental determinants of the contemporary income inequailty and economic growth in MENA and African countries in a panel data estimation during the period 1970-2013 for 24 countries. It is hypothesized that the variation in oil rents, human capital accumulation, and initial inequality in land ownership have significant impacts on contemporary income inequality in different countries. Furthermore, various political economy factors are included in the regression in order to measure the effect of institutional quality. The estimation results show that the oil rents levels, initial inequality in land ownership, rule of law and property rights affect income inequality and growth performance with a statistical significance. Keywords: Landownership inequality, Oil rents, Income inequality, Growth performance, MENA and African countries JEL code: O13, O15, O41, O43, P16, Q00 Random Effects Model. Panel Data Estimation. The estimation results show that the oil rents levels, initial inequality in land ownership, rule of law and property rights affect income inequality and growth performance with a statistical significance.
    Keywords: Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and African Countries , Growth, Macroeconometric modeling
    Date: 2016–07–04
  7. By: Guney, Ibrahim Ethem; Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim; Tumen, Semih
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase, which became effective in January 2016, on consumer loans in Turkey. Using bank-level data and designing an original identification strategy, we ask whether the loans provided by banks with a historically high share of low-wage loan customers have increased relative to those provided by banks with a historically low share of low-wage loan customers after January 2016. Our results suggest that consumer loan flows have displayed a limited but statistically and economically meaningful increase following the minimum wage hike. This increase mostly comes from the increase in long-term general-purpose loans. Vehicle loans have also increased, while there is no change in housing loans. In the overall, the minimum wage hike has generated a moderate and transitory increase in the flow of consumer loans extended to low-wage earners in Turkey|perhaps due to delayed consumption effect. Consumption of durables, which can further increase household borrowing capacity through collateralized debt channel, has only slightly and temporarily increased. The underlying long-term trends in the stock of consumer loans have hardly changed.
    Keywords: Consumer loans,labor income shocks,minimum wages,triple difference
    JEL: D14 E24 G21 J31
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Ceyhun Elgin; Burak Sezgin
    Date: 2017–02
  9. By: Christophe Muller
    Abstract: Social programmes for poverty alleviation involve eligibility rules and transfer rules that often proxy-means tests. We propose to specify the estimator in connection with the poverty alleviation problem. Three distinct stages emerge from the optimization analysis: the identification of the poor, the ranking of their priorities and the calculus of the optimal transfer amount. These stages are implemented simultaneous by using diverse distribution regression methods to generate fitted-values of living standards plugged into the poverty minimization programme to obtain the transfer amounts. We apply these methods to Egypt in 2013. Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions focusing on the poor correspond to the most efficient transfer scheme. Most of the efficiency gain is obtained by making transfer amounts varying across beneficiaries rather than by varying estimation methods. Using RIF regressions instead of quantile regressions delivers only marginal poverty alleviation, although it allows for substantial reduction of the exclusion of the poor.
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Yanovskiy Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zatkovetsky Ilia (Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology); Entov Asya (Ariel University of Samaria)
    Abstract: The paper explores the leading Israeli parties' positions (the right-wing mainly) on the key issues. The set of "key issues" is our choice and contains Judicial (legal system) reform, Judea and Samaria status, 2nd amendment right and self-defense, other security issues, economic policies. The paper is focused primarily on the most important issues like Kfar Duma arson case (investigation was accompanied by grave violation of suspected persons' rights), terror wave, Gas deal, new legislation weakening real estate owner's rights for the developers' benefit and more. The principal issue of the paper is the parties' commitments to their pre-election promises and informal mandates
    Keywords: Party political platform, consistent position, Right-Left cleavages, ideology
    JEL: D72 D73
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Matt Malone (McGill University)
    Abstract: In a recent decision, Downtown Eastside, the Supreme Court of Canada expanded the doctrine of public interest standing as a means of improving access to justice. Through a comparative analysis of public interest standing and procedural rules in the Supreme Court of Israel, this paper argues that the jurisdictional capacity of the Supreme Court of Canada is a significant obstacle to the realization of the goals of improving access to justice, which expanded public interest standing will not resolve. Further policy measures will be required to achieve the objectives of improved access to justice, as set out in Downtown Eastside.
    Keywords: Public Interest Standing - Supreme Court of Canada - Supreme Court of Israel - Access to Justice
  12. By: Alexandra Flayols (UTLN - Université de Toulon)
    Abstract: Le système éducatif du Maroc connaît d'importantes difficultés. Dans ce cadre, l'analyse des motifs d'arrêt des études est primordiale afin que les pouvoirs publics puissent mettre en place des mesures efficaces. Selon nos résultats, la jeune génération afly343 (15-24 ans) arrête moins souvent les études pour cause de lassitude. De plus, nos résultats soulignent que le seuil pour les abandons involontaires se situe au niveau collège. Ainsi, afin d'améliorer la rétention de son système éducatif, le Maroc doit concentrer ses efforts dès le niveau d'éducation primaire afin de favoriser la poursuite des études.
    Keywords: school dropouts,youth,aducation,éducation,abandons scolaires,jeunes
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Shaker, Saber Adly
    Abstract: The main purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of governance (especially of natural resources) on returns of natural resources sector (specifically oil and natural gas). In addition, It also examines whether governance turn point exists or not. The natural resources governance index used in this research was drawn from the Revenue Watch Institute for the year 2013 while the natural resources rent, GDP, and natural resources depletion data were obtained from the World Bank Database. The study covered fifty-six countries; ten of them are Arabian countries. And it adopted the cross-sectional data framework, the Ordinary Least Square estimation technique is used for the analysis. The research found that governance, GDP, and depletion of natural resources impact positively on the returns of natural resources. The research also found that there is a turning point for governance which means that after a given level of governance the significant positive impact diverted to be a significant negative impact. The research advocates that the last result may be due to the maximized governance after optimal level may lead to bureaucracy or/and combat the corruption in natural resources sector which lead to a drop in natural resources returns. The results suggest that firstly, it's necessary to provide a legislative guarantee to ensure ease of access to data related to the natural resources sector. Secondly, apply the disclosure standards of the contracts entered by the government with companies worked in the natural resources sector. Thirdly, publish periodic reports on the financial receipts and licensing revenues and assess both of the economic and environmental returns in the exploitation of natural resources projects. Fourthly, application of accountability standards begins with setting clear selection criterions for top management in both of public companies and governmental agencies related to the natural resources sector. Fifthly, publish financial data of natural resources funds in terms of assets and how to manage those funds. Sixthly, encourage the cooperation with international organizations which interested in governance, for example, joining the World Bank's initiative to promote transparency in the extractive industries, which indicate to good intentions from the government to apply the principles of governance. Finally, by analyzing the returns of natural resources - oil and natural gas only - in terms of value in Arab countries, it notes that there are ten Arab countries that have about 648.8 billion US Dollar in the year 2014. Therefore, the share of the ten Arab countries is about 21% of the total revenue of the natural resources in the world in 2014. This fact indicates that Arab countries are a major player in the natural resources market. So, any attempts to reform the natural resources sector will lead to positive effects on the whole economy performance
    Keywords: Governance – Natural resources – Arab countries
    JEL: E02 G30 Q38
    Date: 2017–03–23
  14. By: Baris Yildiz (Gumushane University, Department of Public Finance); Gizem Akbulut (Gumushane University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Bilgi ve Iletisim Teknolojilerinde (BIT-ICT) yasanan gelismeler ulkelerin mevcut durumlarinin degerlendirilmesine isik tutmaktadir. Ulkelerin sahip olduklari BIT dinamiklerinin farkli olmasindan kaynaklanan dijital bolunme sorunu hala ciddi bir sekilde yasanmaktadir. Dijital Bolunme (Digital Divide) kavraminin pek cok tanimi yapilmakla birlikte BIT (ICT-Information and Communication Technologies)'ye sahip olanlar ile olmayanlar, ICT'yi kullanan ve kullanmayanlar arasindaki farklilik duzeyleri olarak tanimlamak mumkundur. Dijital bolunme kavrami sadece kuresel olcekte degil ayni zamanda ulke icerisinde bolgeler arasinda yasanan esitsizlik sonucu da meydana gelebilmektedir. Diger taraftan gelismekte olan ulkelerin icerisinde yasanan dijital bolunme sorunu gelismis ulkelerle olan iliskilerini de etkileyebilmektedir. Dijital bolunme sadece gelismekte olan ulkelerin degil ayni zamanda gelismis ulkelerin de sorunu haline gelmektedir. Bilgiye ve teknolojiye erisimlerin kiyaslanmasinda cesitli endeks degerler kullanilmakla birlikte Uluslararasi Telekomunikasyon Birligi (ITU) tarafindan gelistirilen ICT Gelisme Endeksi-IDI (ICT Development Index) olcut olarak calismada kullanilmistir. Gelismekte olan ulkeler arasinda yer alan Turkiye acisindan bu endeks degere gore 2000 yilindan itibaren genel olarak olumlu bir seyir izledigi gorulmustur. Ancak bu olumlu seyir Turkiye'nin gelismis ulkeler arasinda yer almasi noktasinda yetersiz kalmaktadir. Hem Turkiye icerisinde bolgelerarasi esitsizligin yuksek oranda olmasi hem de gelismis ulkelerle kiyaslandiginda endeks siralamasinda oldukca gerilerde kalmasi Turkiye'nin dijital bolunme sorununa cozum bulmasini zorunlu kilmaktadir.
    Keywords: Teknoloji, Dijital Bolunme, Bilgi ve Iletisim Teknolojileri
    JEL: O14 L86 L96
    Date: 2017–03
  15. By: Hakan Cetintas (Kyrgyzstan-Turkey Manas University, Department of Economics); I. Murat Bicil (Balikesir University, Department of Economics); Kumru Turkoz (Balikesir University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Elektrik uretiminde fosil yakitlarin kullanimi CO2 emisyonlarinin artmasinda onemli etkenlerin basinda gelmektedir. Bu calismada Turkiye'de 1986-2013 yillari icin yillik veriler ele alinarak fosil yakitlarla CO2 emisyonlari arasindaki uzun donemli iliskiden yola cikilarak uretimde fosil yakit secimi ile ilgili farkli bilesimlere gore olusturulan senaryolara dayali CO2 emisyonu ongoruleri yapilmistir. Farkli uretim senaryolarina gore emisyondaki degismeleri hesaplamak icin Turkiye'de elektrik uretimi Box-Jenkins metodolojisi ile tahmin edilmis ve uretim projeksiyonu kullanilarak farkli yakit bilesimi senaryolari altinda CO2 emisyonlari hesaplanmistir. Buna gore elektrik uretiminde mevcut durumun devami, komure alternatif olarak dogal gaz kullanimi, komurden yenilenebilir enerjiye gecis gibi alternatif senaryolarin CO2 emisyonunu nasil degistirdigi uretim projeksiyonuna bagli olarak degerlendirilmistir.
    Keywords: CO2 Emisyonlari, Enerji Uretimi, Fosil Yakitlar
    JEL: Q2 Q47
    Date: 2017–03

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