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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Lee, Kwon Hyung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Son, Sung Hyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Park, Jaeeun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Jang, Yun Hee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the research is to review strategic policies toward logistics hub of the GCC countries including infrastructure and hinterland development and to suggest government policies to upgrade industrial and logistics cooperation between Korea and GCC countries. In particular, logistics hub policies promoted in Saudi Arabia and UAE are analysed as case studies to draw some implications for the government policies. First, the logistics sector should be considered in connection with industrial sectors, as logistics hubs have been developed as tools for economic diversification. Second, logistics hubs in the GCC countries could be used as a base to re-export Korean products to the Iranian market after international sanctions against Iran are removed. Third, investment by Korean companies is necessary for the establishment of joint ventures between Korea and the GCC countries in logistics related business activities. Fourth, logistics information platforms should be established in major logistics hubs in the region, to help Korean companies seeking information on logistics demand and cooperative partners in the GCC market. |
| Keywords: | Logistics Hub; Saudi Arabia; UAE |
| Date: | 2016–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2016_016&r=ara |
| By: | Motaz Khorshid; Abdel Ghany Mohamed; Wafaa abdel Aziz |
| Abstract: | The interrelationship and interactions between population policies and the economic performance of a country has been traditionally investigated by several researchers and scholars. Some of them used computational models to assess the impact of population on medium and long term behaviour of macroeconomic and economy wide variables. Nevertheless, there is no common agreement among them about the size or magnitude of this impact over time as well as the most appropriate analytical tool to apply, in this respect. Although Egypt is typically suffering from an increasing natural population growth rate, especially after the revolution of January 2011(with an annual growth rate of 2.58% in 2013/14 ), a significantly high unemployment rate among young population reaching 26.3% on the average in 2014 (20.2% for males, and 44.2% for females) and a growing poverty level accounting for 26% of the domestic population in 2012 , population economy interaction studies are limited to a great extent. Based on the above rationale, a major strategic concern facing Egypt is to develop appropriate analytical tool directed to assess the impact of alternative population policies on the performance of the whole economy. Economy wide models based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) tradition and social accounting matrix principles represent an efficient toolkit to achieve this analytical purpose. They are generally used to assess the impact of alternative policy measures and external conditions on medium term performance of the economy as a whole. In this paper, a dynamically adjusted population economy interaction model is constructed, implemented and used to assess the impact of population policies on the performance of the Egyptian economy. From an analytical point of view, the main contributions of this research work are delineated in the following points. (i) The paper adopts a specific disaggregation scheme of the social accounting matrix as well as the model, relevant to the economy population interaction context. To achieve this analytical goal, the production activities are classified into nine sectors. The industrial sectors are broken down according to labour intensity into low intensive, medium intensive and high intensive labour activities. Other production sectors include primary activities, infrastructure, construction, social services, and productive services. Furthermore, to allow for the disaggregated analysis of labour supply and demand policies, labour compensation is disaggregated by production activities (9 sectors), economic sector (private, public and government), household area (urban versus rural) and by educational level (4 education levels). (ii) With respect to the demographic variables, labour supply is classified by sex and education status in order to evaluate alternative labour participation policies. (iii) The inter-period dynamic module of the model includes five dynamic behavioural equations directed to capture the impact of population size on the economy. Per capita household final consumption depends on lagged values of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Government final consumption expenditure on education has two equations (one for pre-university spending and the second for the university & above levels). Government final consumption of pre-university education is determined as a function of the size of pre-university students, and government final consumption spending on the above education is determined from the size of the university & above students per 100000 population. Finally, government final consumption spending on health and social services is predicted as a function of the population size. The constructed model is used to test two alternative scenarios. These scenarios depends on population growth rates, the growth rate of labour by sex and the distribution of labour force by education level. The reference path (or constant fertility scenario) assumes that total fertility rate (TFR) will remain constant at 3.47 child per woman, over the planning period. Labour force participation rate of both males and females will also remain unchanged up to the target fiscal year (2024-2025). Concerning the distribution of labour force by education level, the proportion of illiterate and read and write persons is expected to decrease in favour of the higher educational categories but at slower pace during the scenario’s planning period. The second scenario (or the reduced Fertility scenario) assumes however, that there will be an effective effort of Egypt’s government to support and facilitate the implementation of the family planning program. As a result, women will be more likely to use family planning and spacing between born children. Based on this rationale, TFR is expected to decrease from 3.47 in the base year to 2.3 in 2024-2025. It is assumed also that labour force participation rate of males will follow a decreasing trend while females has an increasing trend during the planning period. This scenario is based on the idea that women become more likely to be more empowered and entering the labour force to support themself and their families. Furthermore, the share of illiterate and read and write labour force is expected to decrease rapidly compared with the reference path scenario. The key findings are shown in the following points. First, constant fertility scenario shows as expected higher real public and private consumption spending than the fertility reduced scenario. Given lower population size associated with the reduced fertility scenario, a decline is observed in the quantity of imports as well as an increase in export proceeds compared with the constant fertility scenario. In addition, aggregate national saving is observing an increase in light of the fertility reduced scenario over the same time period. Finally, most of the per-capita indicators are in favour of the reduced fertility scenario and the gap between the two scenarios is getting larger over time. Second, in case of the constant fertility scenario, population will increase by almost 25.3% during the period from 2014 to 2024, and it is expected to reach 108.7 million persons in 2024, with total labour force that increase by almost 22.6% during the planning period (2014-2024) to reach 33.8 million in 2024 (this corresponds to 7.7 million and 26.1 million for males and females, respectively). Under the reduced fertility scenario, population size increases by almost 20.1% during the same planning period to reach 104.2 million persons in 2024. Total labour force will increase similarly by almost 25.4% during the period (2014-2024) to attain 34.6 million in 2024 (10 million and 24.6 million for males and females respectively). With respect to the quantity demanded of labour, it is assumed that the high bulk of labour size is belong to the primary and higher education. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9254&r=ara |
| By: | Motaz Khorshid; Saad Nassar; Victor Shaker |
| Abstract: | Permitted under the Article (XXIV) of GATT/WTO, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have become a prominent feature in the current trading system. Its share in total world trade has increased tremendously. Although it may be considered an easy substitute for a more difficult multilateral arrangement, it goes further beyond what is agreed upon in the world trade organization. In this regard, FTAs may provide lessons and suggest good practices that could be used to enhance economic policy debate. The current research is directed to assess and quantify the economy wide consequences of the proposed FTA between Egypt and the United States, which represents an important stepping stone towards a regional free trade agreement with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the bottom-up approach in negotiation. Unlike the previous studies, which are mainly based on qualitative analysis, partial equilibrium or general equilibrium static models, the present research develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the interaction between the agriculture sector and the rest of the economy in a consistent and comprehensive manner. As an analytical tool, the model – as well as its social accounting matrix- reflects three technical modifications to the CGE modeling tradition. First, it represents an issue- oriented economy-wide modeling approach that establishes the linkages between agriculture sector and the rest of the economy. Second, it handles the case of multiple rest of the world with similar exchange rate and different regions (USA and the rest of the world). Third, aggregate investment spending is broken down into investment of domestic origin and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Given the above economic rationale, the model is used to capture and assess the impact of two main effects: (i) the effect of removing tariffs on trade between Egypt and the United States, which is nominated the "shallow agreement effect " and (ii) the effect generated by the shallow agreement in addition to reducing non-tariff measures and increasing FDI inflows from the United states, which is nominated the " the deep agreement effect". Taking into account the scheduled total annual U.S. aid to Egypt, the main results of the simulation experiments can be summarized as follows: First, the main results show that the aggregate and sectoral impacts in all experiments are quite modest due to the fact that the bilateral trade and investment flows with the United States are relatively small. Second, reducing non-tariff measures and attracting U.S. Foreign direct investment flows as part of the deep agreement is expected to provide positive gains in the medium/long run with an increase in average annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) accounting for 1.87% compared with the reference path. Third, Analytical results show limited structural changes caused by the deep agreement in the medium-long run. Fourth, the experimental analysis shows a clear improvement in Egypt’s external balance. This improvement is apparent in exports, trade balance and the current account surplus. Sixth, the deep agreement is expected to have positive effects on real households consumption and Investment as well as terms of trade and employment. However, it shows a negative effect on aggregate national saving. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, General equilibrium modeling, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9243&r=ara |
| By: | Elena Ianchovichina; Shantayanan Devarajan; Csilla Lakatos |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the global economic effects and strategic responses to the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. The proposed lifting of sanctions, following its July 14, 2015 nuclear agreement with the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany (“P5+1”), will have consequences for the global, regional, and Iranian economies. The global effects will be felt mostly through the oil channel. The resumption of Iranian oil exports to pre-2012 levels could eventually add one million barrels per day on the world oil market, bidding down world prices. There will also be regional effects on Iran’s major trading partners, including the United Arab Emirates and other countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, through an expansion of oil and non-oil trade, as sanctions-induced trading costs come down. Finally, there will be effects on Iran’s economy as barriers to trade are relaxed, the production mix shifts in favor of goods that fetch high prices abroad and its consumption towards cheaper imports, with attendant effects on economic growth, efficiency and household welfare. This paper quantifies the economic effects of the lifting of sanctions on Iran using a modified version of the GTAP 9 database (Narayanan et al., 2015) and a global, computable general-equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP, documented in Hertel (1997). CGE models capture the interaction between producers and consumers in the economy, mediated through the price mechanism. The global CGE model also captures the trade flows between countries and solves for a set of world prices that equilibrate global supply and demand. We use the model to simulate the effect of a “shock”, such as the removal of a trade embargo, on the market-clearing prices at the global and national levels. We are therefore able to isolate the consequences of the lifting of sanctions from other ongoing developments in the economy. Since the model captures the new equilibrium of an economy that has been perturbed, the time horizon of a simulation is best thought of as medium term, i.e. three to five years. In our simulations, the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran has three components. The first is the lifting of the EU oil embargo. The 2012 restrictions on imports of Iranian oil by the EU were the most far-reaching of the sanctions as they curtailed the volume of exports of Iran’s most important export commodity. Thus, the removal of the EU oil embargo is expected to have the largest macroeconomic impact on Iran and the rest of the world as oil accounts for about 64 percent of Iranian export revenue and Iran has a relatively large share (8 percent) of total world exports. The second component is the removal or significant reduction of the cargo inspections on Iranian exports and imports that were imposed as part of the sanctions regime. Transport costs on trade with Iran are expected to decline. This in turn will have an effect on Iran’s merchandise trade and boost in particular exports and imports of bulky goods and other goods with large transport margins, such as agricultural and industrial products and machinery. The third component is associated with improvements in non-tariff barriers affecting Iran’s cross-border imports of financial and transport services. As the US and other partners lift restrictions on financial transactions and transport services, Iran’s imports of these services are expected to rise. Simulations with the model show that gains from the embargo removal are the largest for Iran, resulting in a welfare gain of about $18 billion to the economy, or an increase in per capita welfare of 3.7 percent. Almost half of these gains (1.7 percent or approximately $8.2 billion) stem from the lifting of the EU oil embargo, while the reduction in trade costs and improvements in conditions for cross-border services trade result in additional gains of $2.0 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. The gains to Iran will be 22 percent lower if Iran’s oil exports to the EU do not recover completely but reach only half of their pre-sanction levels. This may be a more likely outcome since a full bounce back may not be possible in the medium term due to various impediments to oil production and exports, including a range of technical constraints on crude oil extraction and high domestic oil demand, to name a few. In the global economy, net oil importers gain and net oil exporters lose as the world price of oil declines by about 13 percent due to the additional amount of oil sold on the global market. The gains to the EU and the US, both net oil importers, are sizable in absolute terms $67 billion and $34 billion but small in relative terms as per capita welfare increases by slightly less than a half of a percent in the EU and a quarter of a percent in the US. The losses are steepest for OPEC members, especially the GCC, which are expected to lose 3.9 percent in per capita welfare (equivalent to $55 billion in 2011 prices). Per capita welfare for other OPEC members and Russia declines by 2.9 percent ($19 billion) and 1.6 percent ($30 billion), respectively. The rest of the world is not significantly affected by the reduction in Iran’s trade costs because Iran is responsible for a negligible share of the world’s non-oil exports. Overall, the removal of Iran’s economic sanction translates into a gain for the world economy of $53 billion. Iran gains the most in per capita terms, while the losses of oil exporting countries are large and of similar absolute magnitude to Iran’s gains. The paper also considers the strategic responses of different trading blocks to the lifting of the sanctions. Major oil exporters may limit their own oil output and exports in order to stabilize world oil prices. We assess the effect of such a strategic move in combination with the lifting of Iran’s sanctions. Recognizing that Iran’s policy responses will have a substantial effect on the country’s ability to benefit from the lifting of sanctions, we consider the effects of two policy reforms: (i) unilateral reduction of tariffs on imported capital goods and (ii) reforms intended to boost automobile production. Finally, we assess the effects of improved market access for Iranian exports in western markets in response to credible signs of successful implementation of the nuclear agreement. We find that if major OPEC members limit the quantity of oil produced and exported in order to leave the world price of oil unchanged, the global welfare gains from the removal of the EU oil embargo would be significantly reduced. Compared to the baseline scenario, world-wide welfare gains decrease by 70 percent, from $54 billion to $16 billion. Iran’s welfare gains are enhanced and the losses to oil exporting countries reduced, but not by enough to compensate for the oil importers’ reduced welfare gains. The benefits to Iran will also increase if the lifting of the embargo is accompanied with national economic reforms that strengthen the supply response. With a reduction of tariffs on imports of capital goods, welfare gains are expected to be $1.8 billion larger for Iran than in the baseline scenario. Policies that encourage the expansion of automobile production to pre-sanction levels would translate into even higher gains. Given the importance of this industry to the Iranian economy, these reforms translate into a 40 percent boost to welfare or $7 billion. Exports of automobiles are found to increase by more than two-fold benefiting all factors of production but most significantly the returns to capital and skilled labor. Finally, improved market access to the west benefits not only Iran, but also the market-access-granting countries. The supply response will be stronger and the welfare effects larger if investment in general, and foreign direct investment in particular, picks up. |
| Keywords: | Iran, EU, US, Russia, Israel, GCC OPEC, Other MENA, Other OPEC, Rest of World, Impact and scenario analysis, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9185&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed El Komi (Durham University); Mona Said (American University in Egypt) |
| Abstract: | As a result of the economic meltdown in 2008, the hardest hit sector of the economy was the micro and small enterprises (MSE’s) sector. MSEs’ access to formal finance has been facing increasing restrictions, due to the adoption of more cautious lending strategies by both public and private banks. Hence, MSEs in Egypt still heavily rely on informal credit to finance their operations. This paper identifies the linkages between different sources of finance and their impact on informality of MSEs based on small scale surveys on credit and labor use in household businesses in villages in two governorates in Egypt. Preliminary analysis of this new data confirms that relying on self-finance is associated with increased informality of the surveyed enterprises in both governorate subsamples, whereas access to formal loans is associated with formalization through enterprise registration in non-agricultural enterprises surveyed in one of the governorates. These results provide preliminary evidence that policies that enhance access to formal credit and attempts to formalize informal sources of credit, such as RoSCAs, are likely to impact MSE’s formalization positively in Egypt. |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1074&r=ara |
| By: | Doaa Ismail; Riem Mohammed Hamdi Abdelazim |
| Abstract: | Electronic Government services (E-government) play a vital role in measuring the economic development in any country. Public administrations pursue online existence to provide services and information to their stakeholders. Challenges in implementing these E-government services have always been of great interest for research studies in the field. This explains why government websites are under continuous evaluation, from different perspectives, worldwide. The Egyptian government has acknowledged the importance of providing E-government services since 2004. By applying E-government services amongst its public administration, the Egyptian government has been seeking economic and social development. This research paper will provide a comprehensive evaluation of the online progress of the Egyptian ministries using the five staged E-government Model outlined by the United Nations - UN Web Presence Measurement Model (2001). The new application of the model is considered the benchmark to evaluate the progress of these E-government websites. Findings revealed that out of the thirty four ministries, and other government agencies functioning under cabinet, in this administration, a total of four ministries have reached the "Transactional presence", stage four, while fifteen ministries have reached the "Interactive Presence", stage three, in the model provided. The remaining fifteen ministries are still in stage two, "Online Presence", and stage one, "Emerging Presence" with no real services provided to the citizens. Finally, the results also revealed that none of the governmental websites have reached the "Seamless Interaction", stage five. Thus, the Egyptian government websites are considered an undeveloped websites. They are still incapable of effectively interacting or delivering services to the citizens. Furthermore, reaching the "Seamless Interaction" stage is foreseen as unattainable in the near future. the evaluation the web development of government websites in Egypt has been done through the application of a five stage model defined by the United Nations. In order to assess the level of readiness of Egyptian government websites. The researchers had visited all the official government websites and used a checklist to all the model elements in order to apply the model and evaluate the stage that had been reached by each website. Findings reveal that out of the thirty six ministries functioning in this administration, a total of twenty eight have online presence while the remaining eight ministries have no presence at all. It is important to note here, that the online presence of these ministries is only maintained by websites that are located between the first to the fourth stages of the model. This reflects the actual status of not being perceived as fully developed eGovernment websites. As for the absent ministries, they form almost 25% of the Egyptian government online presence, and their absence reveals the incapability of effectively interacting or delivering services to citizens. also; we found that some important ministries as Tourism and Investment has almost no presence which affect the process of growth and development negatively. finally;the “Seamless” interaction; which is the 5th stage in the model, is foreseen as unattainable in the near future. |
| Keywords: | egypt, Modeling: new developments, Growth |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9383&r=ara |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universität Marburg); Mai Hassan (Philipps-Universität Marburg) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic globalization and the shadow economy nexus in Egypt. Using time series data from 1976 to 2013, the impulse response analysis shows that the response of the shadow economy in Egypt to positive shocks in economic globalization is negative and statistically significant for the first three years following the shock. This finding is obtained by controlling for several intermediary channels in globalization-shadow economy nexus such as education, government spending, industrial production, and labor force participation. Our results show the importance of promoting economic globalization by reducing the costs of doing business and trade in dealing with sizable shadow economy in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, Globalization, VAR model, Impulse responses, Egypt |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201718&r=ara |
| By: | Hossam, Samy |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to explore the primary factors that affect the perception of domestic tourists towards the service quality of budget hotels in Egypt. The factors were divided into three main constructs: physical quality, service quality and value for money. The primary findings reveal that the budget hotel location, cleanliness, maintenance, comfort level, hotel staff service, value for money room rates and food and beverage values are among the significant factors that influence domestic tourist satisfaction within predefined constructs. Primary Elements associated with the budget hotel stay were also ranked according to guest satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | Budget hotels, domestic tourism, guest satisfaction, value for money |
| JEL: | L83 M1 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77742&r=ara |
| By: | Mesbah Sharaf; Ahmed Rashad (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Germany); Elhussien I. Mansour |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of health insurance on the utilization of maternal health care services in Egypt. A propensity score matching is used to control for baseline differences in the characteristics of the insured and uninsured women, to determine the difference in health care utilization between the two groups that is attributed solely to the health insurance coverage. The results yield that the national health insurance has a strong positive impact on most of the maternal healthcare indicators. Public health insurance coverage increases the likelihood of receiving antenatal care by about 7%, delivering in a public health facility by 8%, and the likelihood that a newborn receive vitamin A dose after delivery by 8.2%. However, women who are less educated, from a poor household, and rural regions, are less likely to be covered by a health insurance. The findings of this study would guide intervention measures that aim at improving health care utilization especially among the poor and other vulnerable groups. |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1076&r=ara |
| By: | Mustafa Sakr; Andre Jordaan |
| Abstract: | As literature remains sparse regarding emerging African multinational corporations (EAMNCs), this article focuses on examining the key push factors (i.e. home country macroeconomic specifications) influencing the outward foreign direct investment flow from South Africa and Egypt. Based on dynamic panel data model estimation, the empirical research proves that trade openness, patent and the gross domestic product (GDP) and the GDP growth rate of South Africa and Egypt are dominant drivers of their outward foreign direct investment. In contrast, the number of investment treaties and inward foreign direct investment rate do not significantly influence outbound investment decisions of South African and Egyptian corporations. |
| Keywords: | South African MNCs, Egyptian MNCs, emerging African MNCs, Emerging MNCs, push factor determinants of OFDI |
| JEL: | P45 F21 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:664&r=ara |
| By: | Lobna AbdelLatif; Mohamed Zaky (Cairo University); Mohamed Ramadan |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a conceptual framework that relates failure of progressing in gender equality to weakness of budgetary and political institutions. Whereas, the former drift budgetary allocation away from producing the required public values, the latter leads to failure of reconciling and shaping individual values to come up with informed budgetary objectives. Application on Egypt shows that gender values may be locked in the basic needs perspective and lack an informed governance framework to position them dynamically in the utilitarian set of objectives of the budgetary system. Fiscal transparency should inform the process of public values formation and level up budgetary objectives for gender. Additionally, tapping up all public assets and networking them with the budgetary exercise is an important responsibility for governments. |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1075&r=ara |
| By: | Ishac Diwan (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Jamal Ibrahim Haider (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level census data, we determine how politically-connected firms (PCFs) reduce job creation in Lebanon. After observing that large firms account for the bulk of net job creation, we find that PCFs are larger and create more jobs, but are also less productive, than non-PCFs in their sectors. On a net basis, at the sector-level, each additional PCF reduces jobs created by 7.2% and jobs created by non-PCFs by 11.3%. These findings support the notion that politically-connected firms are used for clientelistic purposes in Lebanon, exchanging privileges for jobs that benefit their patrons’ supporters. |
| Keywords: | job creation; politically-connected firms; clientelism; Lebanon |
| JEL: | D47 J21 J38 L11 L53 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:70&r=ara |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews the crucial role which globalization forces played in Israel’s transformation from low tech to high tech economy. Special emphasis is placed on foreign direct investment as a driver for the high-tech transformation. |
| JEL: | F21 F3 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23223&r=ara |
| By: | LAOURARI, Imène; GASMI, Farid |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of real oil revenues fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria using data from 1960 to 2015. To shed some new light on this question, we use a measure of real oil revenues recently developed by Gasmi and Laourari (2015) that is endogenous to Algeria’s international trade structure. We apply the Johansen multivariate cointegration approach to analyze the short-run and the long-run dynamic relationship between real oil revenues and economic growth proxied by two variables, namely, real GDP and industrial sector growth. The cointegration analysis suggests that a long-run relationship exists between real oil revenues, real GDP, and industrial growth in Algeria. The impulse response function and the variance decomposition analysis suggest that the impact of unexpected shifts in real oil revenues on the country's economic and industrial growth is negative. |
| Keywords: | Algeria, Real oil revenues fluctuations, Economic growth, Industrial sector, Time series. |
| JEL: | C32 O13 O14 Q32 |
| Date: | 2016–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77590&r=ara |
| By: | Tammuz Alraheb Ab (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Christina Nicolas (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | Please do not quote without the permission of the authors. Abstract We investigate the influence of the institutional environment on bank capital levels. Using a sample of 187 banks operating in the MENA region for the period 2004 to 2014, we find that low corruption levels, high political stability, as well as high economic and financial freedom are associated with higher capital adequacy levels. The effect of institutional factors on bank capital ratios is also more pronounced for conventional versus Islamic banks, for listed banks and for non-government owned banks. |
| Keywords: | Bank Capital Structure,Institutions,MENA Region |
| Date: | 2017–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01475923&r=ara |
| By: | Laourari, Imène; Gasmi, Farid |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to evaluate the impact of Algeria’s international trade structure, characterized by a strong asymmetry between exports denominated almost exclusively in US dollars and imports invoiced in alternative currencies, on the real purchasing power of this country’s oil revenues.Using a 1970-2013 dataset, we construct, and adjust these revenues by means of, two indices. The first index captures the fluctuations in the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies of Algeria’s main import partners.The second accounts for changes in the inflation passed through imports from these partners. We find a persistent loss in the real purchasing power of Algeria’s oil revenues, that however decreased, up to the late 1990s and then, thanks to a relatively stable imported inflation, turned into a gain after the year 2000. Besides allowing us to disentangle the effects of the US dollar fluctuations and the world inflation on the dynamics of the real purchasing power of Algeria’s oil revenues, our analysis cast some light on the genuine role oil resources have played in the development of this country’s economy over the last four decades. |
| Keywords: | Algeria, Oil revenues, Real purchasing power, Dollar exchange rate, Imported inflation. |
| JEL: | O13 O55 Q32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77612&r=ara |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari) |
| Abstract: | As part of a “Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity in the NENA Region”, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has been proposing a practical tool for the assessment of investment projects, called the Food Supply Cost Curve (FSCC). This chapter illustrates the concept of the Food Supply Cost Curve, and which steps need to be taken to practically implement an FSCC evaluation exercise. It concludes by commenting on some preliminary findings obtained at the FAO when the FSCC has been employed in some countries in the Near East and North Africa. |
| Keywords: | Water, Water Scarcity, Social Cost, Social Benefit, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Economic Efficiency, Food Security |
| JEL: | D61 Q01 Q11 Q11 Q17 Q18 Q25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:04&r=ara |
| By: | Serrière, Nicolas. |
| Keywords: | employment policy, promotion of employment, national planning, national budget, Morocco |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994946493402676&r=ara |
| By: | Metali, Dr |
| Abstract: | Recently, information technology has a tremendous influence on how Governments operate, and many governments have started to make moves toward e-Government that enable them to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector, as well as delivering quality public services in alignment with the goals and aspirations of communities. In this paper, we present the case of Korea as the e-government leader with the highest scores in ‘E-government Development Index’ according to the latest edition of the United Nations E-Government Survey, followed by the e-government of El Bahrain that took serious action to improve e-government, and as a result, the only Arab country to be classified among the very high-performing countries within the EGDI, and to bring out the reasons behind their success. Finally, we review Algeria e-government project, Some critical factors that affect its implementation. |
| Keywords: | E-Government, Public Services, Information Technology, E-Government Development Index (EGDI) |
| JEL: | E0 H10 M15 M38 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77687&r=ara |
| By: | Turan, Güngör |
| Abstract: | In this empirical paper, the long-run relations between growth and unemployment in Turkey has been tested. ARDL bound test which is a long-term co-integration test has been used based on Turkish real gross domestic product and the number of unemployed time series in 1962-2014. The results of bound test conclude that there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between growth and unemployment in Turkey. This empirical study to some extent supports the availability of "jobless" growth notion which has been debated in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, growth, bounds test, Turkey |
| JEL: | C10 E0 E00 J6 J60 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77773&r=ara |
| By: | Turan, Güngör |
| Abstract: | In this empirical paper, the long-run relations between higher education and economic growth in Turkey has been investigated. ARDL bound test which is a long-term co-integration test has been used based on Turkish real gross domestic product and the number of higher education graduates time series in 1961-2012. The results of bound test concluded that there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between higher education and economic growth in Turkey. This empirical study supports the availability of "non-qualified" growth notion which has been debated in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Higher education, economic growth,co-integration, bounds test, Turkey |
| JEL: | C0 C01 J0 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77778&r=ara |