|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Riadh Brini; Hatem Jemmali (University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we first seek a robust methodology for the estimation of the relative public spending efficiency of eleven Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period 1996-2011. Using the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), we estimate relative efficiency scores for the four main disaggregated accounts of public spending: administration, health, education and infrastructure. Then, the Tobit regression model is used in the second part of the paper to determine the impact of governance and political and economic factors on public spending efficiency. The results mainly show that Jordan is the most efficient in public spending on administration, education and health, and Tunisia on infrastructure; while Libya, Algeria and Yemen are relatively less efficient in public spending on administration and health. Moreover, the results indicate that political stability, trade freedom and economic growth have a positive effect on public spending efficiency. Nevertheless, voice and accountability negatively affect the efficiency of public spending. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:947&r=ara |
| By: | Ilham Haouas (College of Business Administration, Abu Dhabi University); Almas Heshmati |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the hiring and separation rates in Tunisia before and after the Arab Spring of 2011. Several models are specified to study employment decisions based on quarterly administrative firm level data over the period of 2007 to 2012. The data provides information about important firm characteristics, such as industry sector, number of hiring and separation, total employment effects and composition of labor force by gender, managerial level and age cohorts. Six models are estimated to investigate hiring, separation, hiring rate, separation rate, mobility, and net-employment. The results indicate presence of continued risk factors in Tunisia’s labor market resulting from the global financial crisis in 2008 and the Arab Spring in 2011. Hiring was little changed during this time period, and the results suggest that factors that impact separation decisions remained present in Tunisia’s labor market. In addition, the paper looks at various social issues such as youth unemployment and infer on how more efficient policy actions that further engage the private sector could result in more sustainable positive net-employment and increased labor mobility. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:921&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (University of Minnesota); Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | In the Middle East and North Africa, unequal opportunities occur in both the education system and the labor market. The outcomes that individuals achieve in the labor market depend on circumstances beyond their control, such as gender or parents’ education, as well as the effort they expend in succeeding in the education system and in the labor market itself. The extent to which outcomes depend on circumstances outside an individual’s control is typically referred to as inequality of opportunity. It could be that unequal opportunities in the labor market are due to unequal human capital (pre-market inequality) or, alternatively, to individuals being treated unequally in the labor market even after accounting for differences in their human capital (in-market inequality). This paper tests whether there is in-market inequality of opportunity in Egypt and Jordan, focusing on the labor market experiences of higher education graduates. Specifically, the paper examines whether a number of labor market outcomes are affected by circumstances, such as family background, gender, and place of birth, after carefully controlling for the type and quality of human capital an individual possesses. We find that substantial in-market inequality exists in both settings, but more so in Egypt, suggesting that the functioning of the labor market itself is a substantial source of inequality of opportunity. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:932&r=ara |
| By: | Rania Salem (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | The literature on gender and the Arab “Spring” has documented the role of female activists in the uprisings and analyzed the implications of Islamists’ electoral successes for women. However, little is known about how ordinary women have experienced the changes that accompanied the uprisings and how this compares with men’s experiences. The removal of authoritarian rulers may have improved satisfaction with public institutions or decreased perceived corruption, but for some the uprisings may have resulted in higher perceived or reported crime and deeper material hardship. This paper analyzes gender differences between Tunisians’ and Egyptians’ perceptions of prevailing economic and political circumstances using nationally-representative samples surveyed before, during, and after the uprisings of the Arab “Spring.” Descriptive results indicate that Egyptians’ ratings of three indices of economic conditions are lower overall, although Tunisians perceive a steeper deterioration in economic circumstances in the post-uprising period. In both countries, these economic losses have not been compensated for by political gains, as measured by four indices. While women and men’s economic and political attitudes follow a similar trajectory in each country, there are clear differences per the gender of the respondent, particularly when it comes to political attitudes. This gender difference is largely confirmed by multivariate analysis. Women are more likely than men to report favorable economic conditions in both countries. In the realm of politics, Egyptian and Tunisian women express greater dissatisfaction with law and order and with national institutions. At the same time, men perceive higher levels of corruption than do women in both countries. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:913&r=ara |
| By: | Eberhard Kienle (CNRS Paris/ Ifpo Beirut) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to examine the economic and social policies that key political actors in Tunisia and Egypt advocated and partly implemented after the departure of the former authoritarian rulers, Zin al-Abdin Bin Ali and Husni Mubarak. The paper focuses on actors strong enough to directly influence policy choices: parties that were part of however informal parliamentary majorities, governments, and, in the case of Egypt, the president of the republic, who in line with constitutional arrangements, wielded important powers. The paper first summarizes the economic and social policies publicly advocated by the parties and individuals who dominated elected assemblies and executives after the fall of former autocrats. It then discusses the policies that the new Islamist rulers implemented from their election in late 2011 until the summer of 2013 (subsequent publications will cover longer periods of time). In a third step, both policy statements and decisions are examined in the light of assumptions about the origins of the Arab Spring and compared with policies under the old regimes and their effects. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:928&r=ara |
| By: | May Attallah (CREM-University of Rennes 1) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically studies the voting outcomes of the first post-revolution presidential elections in Egypt. In light of the strong success of Islamist candidate Mohamed Morsi, I identify three dimensions which can affect voting outcomes: human capital stock, wealth and employment structure. I find that less educated, poorer and more unequal districts support more Islamists. I also find an effect of the employment structure of a district on voting. I test the results by comparing the voting outcomes of the presidential elections to those of the 2011 and 2012 constitutional referendum. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:939&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Fakih; Pascal L. Ghazalian (University of Lethbridge) |
| Abstract: | The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has realized significant advances toward improving women’s well-being and social status over the last few decades. However, women’s employment rate in the MENA region remains one of the lowest in the world. This paper examines the implications of firm-related and national factors for female employment rates in manufacturing firms located in the MENA region. The empirical analysis is implemented for firm-level data derived from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys database. It uses fractional logit and alternative models to carry out the estimations for female overall employment rates and for female non-production employment rates. The results reveal significant implications of firm-related factors, such as private foreign ownership, exporting activities, firm size, and labor composition for female employment rates. They also show that national factors, such as economic development and gender equality, promote female employment rates. There are considerable differences between the estimated marginal effects for female overall employment rates and those for female non-production employment rates. This paper provides policy-makers with important directions to design strategies aiming at enhancing women’s economic opportunities and employment rates. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:917&r=ara |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Okay Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the demand elasticity of available working time into the model of domestic production in order to show that the limits on discretionary times use may alter the estimates of time use elasticity of substitution good. Our elasticity estimation result for food is 0.50 in Turkey for 2007, which ranges from 0.22 to 0.56 in the literature. However, the elasticity of substitution for food rises up to 0.92 when one considers working time available with all consumption groups, suggesting that households may overcome time scarcity and increase working time by reducing time spent in the leisure, transportation, other and personal care and health categories. This process, in turn, yields good intensive consumption in Turkey. We obtain more robust estimation results by using the opportunity cost of time measurement proposed by Gardes (2016) for Turkish households in 2007. In this work, the Time Use Survey for 2006 is matched with the 2007 Household Budget Survey |
| Keywords: | Household production; Time use elasticity of substitution; Rubins' matching statistics; Working Time Available |
| JEL: | C53 D12 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17016&r=ara |
| By: | Fida Karam; Chahir Zaki (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effects of wars on trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As a region, MENA faces considerable risk of conflicts. Using an augmented gravity model, we introduce a war variable and distinguish between different types of conflicts. We run a battery of sensitivity analysis tests to control for the endogeneity problem that may arise in our estimation. The results show that, in general, wars have a significantly negative impact on exports, imports and trade. Civil conflicts hinder exports, imports and trade significantly. The disaggregated version of the gravity model shows that non-state conflicts have a detrimental effect on bilateral trade flows in manufacturing and that none of the conflicts do affect trade in services. Finally, the outcome of the gravity model for manufacturing sectors has been used to compute ad-valorem equivalents of wars at the country level. We found that, on average, a conflict is equivalent to a tariff of 5% of the value of trade. More heterogeneity is observed at the sectoral level (where AVEs range from 4% to 65%). |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:933&r=ara |
| By: | Rana Hendy (Economic Research Forum) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the reasons for the persistently low participation of women in the Egyptian labor market over time and across the different economic sectors, using the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) 2012. This panel dataset allows for an examination of the period leading up to and including the revolution, as it covers three different points in time: 1998, 2006 and 2012. Despite the remarkable increase in women’s educational attainment, which has become higher for women than their male counterparts, participation in the labor market remains relatively low. Confirming widespread opinion, the findings indicate that the January 25 Revolution has had a negative effect on women’s status in the labor market. Labor force participation has decreased, and unemployment has increased. It is thus important to analyze the different determinants of low female labor force participation. These include factors related to the supply of female labor, relating to family circumstances such as marriage, fertility and time use, women’s preferences and reservation wages; as well as the factors related to the demand side, such as the shrinking public sector and discrimination in the private sector. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:907&r=ara |
| By: | Ishac Diwan (Harvard University); Tarik Akin |
| Abstract: | The paper looks at the evolution of public finance in a select number of MENA countries over the past 50 years. The review covers the size of government, how it is financed, and the composition of expenditures and revenue. The size of government expenditures has swung dramatically over time, moving from an average in the region of over 50% of GDP in the 1980s to about 25% of GDP in the 2000s. We evaluates how such changes were implemented over time and assess the current fiscal situation in light of the inheritance of the past. We also evaluate the extent to which these trends correspond to the various political economy stories used to characterize the past and the lead-up to the uprisings of 2011. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:914&r=ara |
| By: | Mona Said (American University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the pattern of wages and wage inequality in Egypt over the period 1988-2012, a time of substantial economic and political changes, including the recent global financial crises and the January 25th 2011 revolution. This analysis is based on four nationally representative labor market surveys: the special round of the Egyptian Labor Force Sample Survey (LFSS) carried out in October 1988, the 1998 Egypt Labor Market Survey (ELMS), and the 2006 and 2012 rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). The analysis in the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 introduces the main stylized facts and structural features of real wage and inequality in the Egyptian labor market during the recent liberalization episodes. Section 3 describes the wage determination model used in calculating wage differentials and returns to education. Section 4 discusses the wage estimation results, while focusing on public-private and gender wage gaps and changes in returns to education over the past decade. Finally, section 5 concludes and draws implications for the reform of the labor market in the wake of the financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:912&r=ara |
| By: | Widede Labidi; Sami Mensi (University of Manouba) |
| Abstract: | The various financial crises during the last two decades, and particularly since the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis, have revealed the complexity of the interaction between bank market structure, regulation and the stability of the banking industry. Due to its effects on financial stability, banking market structure has been a focus of academic and policy debates of which we prefer the market power paradigm. More precisely, the impact of competition and market concentration on the probability of financial crisis emerges as a crucial topic. Despite their importance, little is known about the relationship between Banking Market Power and Bank Soundness of banks in the MENA region. This paper tries to overcome the tradeoff between banking market power and financial (in) stability among 157 commercial banks chosen from 18 countries in the MENA region between 2000 and 2008. The results indicate that although the banks operate in a competitive market, they suffer from financial instability. The results also reveal a non-significant negative relationship between the rather low degree of market power and financial instability. In other words, we concluded that financial instability is not affected by competition in the banking market in the MENA region. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:908&r=ara |
| By: | Mahdi Majbouri (Babson College) |
| Abstract: | How much richer would oil producing countries in the Middle East be if they invested all their natural resource rents? This study tries to answer this question by calculating the counterfactuals of capital stock and income under two major scenarios. Combining several data sets, including a unique set on sovereign wealth funds, it finds that oil-producing MENA economies could have had, on average, around a 0.55 percentage point higher growth rate if they had used their natural resource rents efficiently. This difference in growth rate translates to around 25% higher income over a 40 year period. These numbers are separately calculated for each country and their important policy implications are discussed. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:904&r=ara |
| By: | Hanan Morsy (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Antoine Levy; Clara Sanchez |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to identify the reasons why economic growth in Egypt, although comparable to its peers, failed to significantly reduce unemployment, lower poverty levels or raise overall productivity. We use cross-country comparisons, counterfactual scenarios and regression analysis to demonstrate that Egypt, even during the high growth period of 2000-2010, did not experience a reallocation of excess labor towards modern, productive sectors similar to that which occurred in other emerging markets, notably in South East Asia. The results show that, while there is large potential for productivity gains in the Egyptian economy, a limited openness to trade, a low diversification of exports and deficient access to finance prevented the country from witnessing structural shift of its labor force towards manufacturing and private services, locking Egypt instead within a “low value trap.” The paper then suggests some policy implications of these findings, relating to overcoming the main impediments to preventing an efficient sectoral reallocation of workers. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:940&r=ara |
| By: | François Langot; Shaimaa Yassin (University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (CES)) |
| Abstract: | Do reforms introducing more flexibility in developing countries’ labor markets reduce unemployment? This paper proposes to evaluate the new Egyptian labor market law, which was introduced in 2003, aiming to enhance the flexibility of the hiring and the firing processes. The Egypt labor market panel surveys (ELMPS 2006 and ELMPS 2012) are used to measure the impact of this reform on the dynamics of separation and job finding rates, and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Using synthetic panel data created from the retrospective accounts of the 2006 and 2012 cross-sections, and by overlapping the two surveys, we estimate annual and semi-annual transition probabilities of workers among employment, unemployment and inactivity labor market states. A unique and novel model is built to correct for the recall and design bias observed in the retrospective data. Using our “corrected” data, we show that the reform significantly increases the separation rates in Egypt, but leads to non-significant effects on the job finding rates. The combined net effect is therefore an increase in the levels of the Egyptian unemployment rate. By performing counterfactuals analysis, we show evidence of the increasingly dominant role of the job separation rate in accounting for Egyptian unemployment fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:918&r=ara |
| By: | Hulisi Ögüt (TOBB University of Economics and Technology); Asunur Cezar; Merve Güven |
| Abstract: | We investigate the factors influencing the demand for mobile voice services in Turkey using firm level data that spans from January 2009 to December 2013. Competition in the mobile telecommunication market in Turkey has become more intense as a result of the mobile number portability (MNP) service introduced in 2008 and 3G technology introduced in 2009. The intense competition not only helps to keep prices down but also supports subscriber growth. Besides prices, we believe that network effects have an impact on market growth. Approximating sales levels using subscription levels and churn rates and using revenue per minute (RPM) as a price measure, we find that while price has a significant negative impact, network effects have a significant positive impact on the demand for mobile services in Turkey. We also estimate own and cross price elasticities of firms operating in mobile telecommunication market. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:937&r=ara |
| By: | Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara University, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses five cross sections of newly released Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey data to determine whether there has been feminization of poverty in Egypt during the last 15 years. The period of study is one during which poverty as a whole has been increasing, and major economic, social and political changes took place. Results suggest that poverty is more prevalent among female headed households when compared to male headed households, but that married couple households are in fact poorer than both for most of the years under study. The rural-urban divide is also a very important factor determining poverty. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:926&r=ara |
| By: | Shireen AlAzzawi (Santa Clara University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether there is feminization of poverty in Egypt and examines the determinants of poverty by household type. Furthermore, it decomposes the poverty differential between the various household types into a component due to endowments and another due to the return to these endowments. The paper uses data from five Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Surveys, that span a period of far-reaching economic, social and political changes, from 1999 to 2013. Results suggest that female headed households are indeed poorer than male headed households over the period. They are, however, less poor than married couple households. Initially, endowments were more important in explaining the poverty differentials between the various family types, however in more recent years the returns to these endowments, or the treatment effect, became the dominant factor. This suggests the need for policies to ensure more equitable returns to endowments for the poor. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:931&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Trabelsi (Dubai Economic Council, Economic Policy and Research Center); Ibrahim Elbadawi; Dhuha Fadhel |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the capital buffers maintained by banks and the business cycle in a panel covering 70 banks drawn from all six GCC countries during the period 2004-2011. We estimate a standard partial adjustment model accounting for GDP per capita growth, the chosen measure of economy-wide business cycle, and a set of control variables using dynamic GMM panel estimation. We find banks’ capital buffers and the business cycle to be robustly and negatively associated. However, we also find this evidence to be stronger for the case of large banks where the access to capital equity markets and public support is likely to constitute a strong incentive to increase credit exposure and lower capital bases accordingly. On the other hand, for small banks, the negative effect was attenuated by their small size, which could be explained by their limited access to equity markets and the difficulty they face in re-building their capital bases during economic recessions. Not surprisingly, therefore, our finding coheres with the observation that small banks are more likely to adopt more conservative practices where capital buffers are less responsive to short run changes of the business cycle. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:925&r=ara |
| By: | Bedri Kamil Onur Tas (TOBB ETU, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the optimal number of bidders to achieve the lowest procurement prices in public procurement auctions. We use a unique data set provided by the Public Procurement Authority of Turkey that covers all government procurement auctions for the years 2004-2010 (472,560 auctions). We conclude that there is an optimal number of bidders and this number varies for different types of products. These results indicate that auctioneers should promote competition in public procurement. The optimal number of bidders can be used by the authorities as a focal point to analyze whether competitive efficiency is achieved in the public procurement auctions. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:919&r=ara |
| By: | Hala El-Said; Mahmoud Al-Said; Chahir Zaki (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | Limited resources and barriers to entry are critically higher for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) than for large companies. One of the reasons explaining why the resources of SMEs are scarce is their limited access to financial services. This, in turn, reduces their likelihood of exporting. With this in mind, using the census of SMEs done by the Central Bank of Egypt and the Egyptian Banking Institute (EBI), we try to examine the impact of access to finance on SMEs’ export performance. We measure the latter by the extensive margin that means the probability of becoming an exporter and the probability of serving several markets. We found a significant and positive impact on the probability of exporting and that of exporting to more than one destination from dealing with banks and having banking facilities. Thus, wider and more efficient financial services are likely to increase the number of exporters and boost exports diversification. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:903&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates inequality of opportunity in educational achievements in Turkey over time. For this purpose, we use test scores of PISA in mathematics, science and reading achievement of 15-year-olds over the period 2003-2012. Since the different waves of the samples cover only a fraction of the cohorts of 15-year olds, we take into account the inequality of opportunity in access to the PISA test as well as the inequality of opportunity of the academic achievement in the PISA test. This procedure enables proper over time comparisons. We estimate the effect of circumstances children are born into on their academic achievement as evidenced in their PISA test scores. The main findings are as follows. First, confirming the previous studies we find that inequality of opportunity is a large part of the inequality of educational achievement in Turkey. Second, the inequality of opportunity in educational achievement shows a slightly decreasing trend over time in Turkey. Third, the inequality of opportunity figures based on the mathematics, science and reading achievements exhibited the similar trend over time. Forth, the family background variables are the most important determinants of the inequality in educational achievement, which is a consistent pattern over time. However, there is also evidence of slight weakening of these factors over time. Policies are necessary to improve equality of opportunity in education in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:923&r=ara |
| By: | Nadir Altinok (University of Lorraine); Abdurrahman Aydemir |
| Abstract: | The gender gap in education against females becomes smaller as the level of development increases and turns in their favor in developed countries. Through analysis of regional variation in the gender gap within Turkey, which displays a similar pattern to the cross-country pattern, this paper studies the factors that lead to the emergence of a gender gap against females. The data for student achievement and aspirations for further education during compulsory school show that females are just as well prepared and motivated for further education as their male counterparts across regions with very different levels of development. Despite this fact, large gaps arise in high school registration and completion in less developed regions, but not in developed ones. We find that larger sibship size is the main driver of gender gaps in less developed regions. While social norms have a negative influence on female education beyond compulsory school, they play a relatively small role in the emergence of gender gaps. These results are consistent with the fact that resource-constrained families give priority to males for further education, leading to the emergence of education gender gaps. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:934&r=ara |
| By: | Reham Rizk (British University in Egypt); Hala Abou-Ali |
| Abstract: | The paper attempts to quantify the impact of informal employment on women’s contribution to the household budget. It further pinpoints the socio-economic factors that affect women’s struggle to meet their household needs. Using the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey 2012, the analysis reveals that informality decreases women’s contribution to the household budget by 31%. Moreover, women’s educational level, household size, and husband’s education, among other factors, shape women’s involvement in the household budget. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:910&r=ara |
| By: | Rania Salem (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Fear over the perceived breakdown of the institution of marriage plagues many Egyptian policy-makers and members of the public. This study examines the trajectory of marriage behaviors in three nationally-representative surveys spanning the period 1998 to 2012 to determine whether this fear is justified. It also investigates socio-demographic variations in marriage practices at each time point. Overall, this study finds that marriage is nearly universal in Egyptian society, and both never-marriage and divorce are extremely rare over time and across all socio-demographic groups. Between 1998 and 2006, marriage was increasingly postponed to older ages, but starting in 2006, marriage began occurring earlier in the life-cycle for some groups. At the same time, in the period 2006 to 2012, engagement durations have risen slightly, unions between first cousins have declined slightly, and nuclear families are established by a considerably higher percentage of newlyweds upon marriage. Finally, there is some empirical support for the claim that marriage expenditures have risen over time. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:911&r=ara |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Okay Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we specify and estimate the “domestic production scarcity of time use” as the time use demand elasticity of commodity use in domestic activity. We integrate domestic production technology as the good intensity of time use into scarcity in time use and monetary expenditure which enables us to better differentiate for which consumption groups households have a more complementary than substitutable nature with regards to domestic production. We match the Time Use Survey for 2006 with the Household Budget Survey for the years between 2007 and 2013 (inclusive) by using a new matching method proposed by Rubin (1986) |
| Keywords: | Household production technology; Matching statistics; Time use elasticity of substitution |
| JEL: | J22 D12 D13 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17018&r=ara |
| By: | Hala Abou-Ali; Reham Rizk (British University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of informality on household enterprise performance in terms of productivity and size of output. Furthermore, it pinpoints informality determinants with respect to different types of obstacles that impede their growth. The analysis uses the ELMPS 2012 data and finds that a firm’s age and an entrepreneur’s education level have a significant impact on the likelihood of belonging to the informal sector. Moreover, mobile enterprises, agricultural sector and household savings increase the probability of belonging to the informal sector. In sum, the results support the argument that informality has a deterrent impact on the level of productivity and the value of output of household enterprise in Egypt. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:916&r=ara |
| By: | Rania Salem (University of Toronto); Yuk Fai Cheong; Kristin VanderEnde; Kathryn M. Yount |
| Abstract: | Whether work is performed for household members’ consumption (subsistence work) or for sale to others (market work), it may be an enabling resource for women’s agency, or their capacity to define and act upon their goals. The present paper asks: Do women who engage in market work have higher agency in the three domains of economic decision-making, freedom of movement, and equitable gender role attitudes, compared to those who engage in subsistence work and those who do not work? To address this question, we leverage data from a probability sample of ever-married women in rural Egypt. We use latent-variable structural equation models with propensity score matching to estimate the influence of women’s work on three domains of their agency. We find no effect on gender attitudes or decision-making. However, women’s subsistence and market work are associated with increasingly higher factor means for freedom of movement, compared to not working. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:922&r=ara |
| By: | Mahmoud Al Iriani (Dubai Economic Council, UAE); Yahsob Al Eriani |
| Abstract: | The link between natural resource outcomes and the quality of institutions has attracted considerable attention in natural resource literature. But only very recently has its link to fiscal rules and institutions been discussed, focusing mainly on developed economies. We conduct an assessment of the role fiscal rules and institutions play in Yemen, both an oil-producing and developing country. The analysis attempts to evaluate fiscal discipline and the resulting fiscal side of macroeconomic policies in this populous Arab country. The structure and quality of fiscal institutions in Yemen, and the rules governing them, are central in determining the developmental impact of the country’s oil and natural gas endowments. We show that Yemen’s economic volatility, and hence poor development experience, was in fact a natural result of the two-way interaction between fiscal institutions and natural resource rents. On one hand, realizing the benefits from natural resource endowments in Yemen requires adopting an appropriate set of working rules that reduce the unfavorable effects of resource abundance on the quality of institutions. On the other hand, high quality institutions and rules may help improve resource management, contributing to the realization of better economic performance in the future. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:935&r=ara |
| By: | Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton); Ragui Assaad |
| Abstract: | Do flexible labor market regulations reduce informal employment? This paper examines the effects of changes in labor regulations on the incidence of formal employment. Using the case of Egypt, we study the effects of the introduction of more flexible labor regulations in 2003, allowing employers to fire workers, on the incidence of formal employment. The change in the labor law provides us with a natural experiment, which can be used to evaluate the impact of such a policy. The findings show that the change in labor law had a positive impact on the incidence of contracted jobs. Thus, our findings support the hypothesis that less rigid labor market regulations increase formal employment. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:915&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Lebanon’s economic growth remains subdued. Following a sharp drop in 2011, growth edged upward briefly to 2–3 percent, but has now slowed again. The IMF staff estimates that GDP increased by 1 percent in 2015, and a similar growth rate in 2016 is projected. Lebanon’s traditional growth drivers—tourism, real estate, and construction—have received a significant blow and a strong rebound is unlikely based on current trends. In the absence of a turnaround in confidence, or a resolution of the Syrian conflict, growth is unlikely to return to potential (4 percent) soon. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Economic growth;Fiscal risk;Public debt;Current account deficits;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Lebanon; |
| Date: | 2017–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/19&r=ara |
| By: | Abbas Al-Mejren (Kuwait University) |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the impact of the legislative setting, institutions, and political structure on the public budget in the State of Kuwait. This is an issue that has gained sizable attention, from both theoretical and empirical dimensions, in recent decades. In this respect, Kuwait represents a special case among her peers of rentier states in the GCC region because it is adopting a semi-democratic political structure, which simultaneously combines features of presidential and parliamentary systems. This structure is influenced by the prevailing interests and dynamic relationships between the limbs. The study focuses, systematically, on three thematic areas: legislative, institutional, and evolution of public revenues and public spending. Through this approach, the study attempts to dig out the effects and consequences of the institutional settings on the country’s fiscal outcomes. The public budget and fiscal account data used for this purpose cover the period from FY 1970/71 to FY 2013/14. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:920&r=ara |
| By: | Nesma Ali (Universiti Paris-Est, France.); Boris Najman |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of the competition stemmed from informal firms on formal firms productivity in Egypt. Using the World Banks Enterprise Surveys, we update the two-step methodology of Guiso et al. (2004) to build a regional indicator of informal competition intensity. Our estimation reports a positive effect of this indicator on formal firms productivity that remains valid to the instrumental variable approach and to multiple robustness check. This result is subject to factors accounting for the characteristics of the firm and is segmented by formal firms size. We also identify informal firms cost advantage as the main channel through which this effect occurs. Our results call on the importance of tax reforms and effective regulation to be implemented in Egypt. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1025&r=ara |
| By: | Steffen Hertog |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how the GCC oil monarchies have been using their oil wealth to buy the accoutrements of ‘good citizenship’ and ‘progressiveness’ in the international arena through costly policy projects that involve urban interventions like the building of international museums, universities and ‘zero-carbon cities’ – urban enclaves with an audience that is almost exclusively international. The paper explains how these projects reflect a desire to comply with Westerndefined ‘liberal’ international norms and tastes to gain international recognition, shows how they reflect broader patterns of segmented state building in the Gulf, and explores some of the social tensions they create locally. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69883&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed Elsayed (Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Olivier Marie |
| Abstract: | At the end of the 1980’s, Egypt introduced a policy change to its pre-university education system where the years of primary education decreased from six to five, reducing the overall years of compulsory education from nine to eight. Using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) in 2006 and 2012, we study the effect of this educational reform on several education and labor market outcomes. We find that the policy had positive effects on educational outcomes as it significantly increased the probability of finishing compulsory education and raised the overall years of education. However, the policy significantly postponed the age of entering the labor market, increased the time between completing education and getting the first job, and reduced the probability of the first job being paid. The effects of the policy on both education and labor market outcomes were more pronounced for males than for females. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:944&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses findings of the assessment of Lebanon’s financial system. Lebanon has maintained financial stability for the last quarter century during repeated shocks and challenges. Over time, macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities have accumulated. Although central bank policies have helped to maintain confidence, fiscal adjustment is needed to reduce risks to financial stability. The banking system has thus far proven resilient to domestic shocks and regional turmoil, but the materialization of severe shocks could expose vulnerabilities. Significant progress has been made to further strengthen Lebanon’s financial integrity framework, with some scope for improvement remaining. |
| Keywords: | External shocks;Syria;Immigration;Revenue mobilization;Value added tax;Capital;Production growth;Human capital;Oil prices;Inward remittances;Selected Issues Papers;Lebanon; |
| Date: | 2017–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/21&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon’s economy. Output growth in Lebanon has fallen sharply since the onset of the Syrian crisis and is too low to accommodate new job seekers, or to address the needs of Lebanon’s more vulnerable population. Moreover, low growth is taking a toll on public debt dynamics, raising the prospect of higher borrowing costs and constrained social and investment spending—both are much needed to improve the quality of public spending and direct it toward more useful and productive uses. The authorities have presented an ambitious proposal to the international community, which centers on a multiyear effort to stimulate growth and employment through a targeted series of investment initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Financial system stability assessment;Financial sector;Banks;Bank supervision;Basel Core Principles;Risk management;Stress testing;Financial safety nets;Capital markets;Insurance;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Lebanon; |
| Date: | 2017–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/20&r=ara |
| By: | Okay Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Households' consumption patterns are deciphered through estimates of demand elasticities based on the domestic production decisions determined by constraints on time use and monetary budgets for different subpopulations. We first estimate the shadow wage rates of the households and later estimate the full demand elasticities which are computed using full prices proposed by Gardes (2016) derived through the hypotheses of complementarity or substitutability existing between monetary and time expenditures. Detailed results are obtained for the whole population by breaking the dataset into age groups and into households according to poverty level, as determined by the OECD-modified equivalence scale |
| Keywords: | Time allocation; domestic production; full prices; opportunity cost of time; demand elasticities; Rubins' matching statistics |
| JEL: | C1 D1 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:17017&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The first few years of children’s lives provide a crucial window for their human development. Malnutrition, as a form of faltering development in the early years of life, has lasting consequences in terms of education, labor market, and adult health outcomes. Early childhood is also the period when inequality originates and the intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality begins. It is therefore important to identify the causes of poor health in early childhood and to understand what drives inequality in early health and nutrition in order to provide children with equal chances for healthy growth. In Jordan, there are substantial socio-economic disparities in children’s health and nutrition. This paper examines the determinants and mediators of health disparities in children’s height and weight in Jordan, focusing on factors that might mediate socio-economic disparities, including parental health knowledge, food quantity and quality, health conditions, the health environment, and prenatal development. While this paper demonstrates that the health environment and food quantity and quality contribute to inequality in child health, these effects mediate only a small share of socio-economic disparities. A large share of inequality in children’s health is determined prenatally, for instance through disparities in fetal growth. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:950&r=ara |
| By: | Nicholas Spaull (Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Of the OECD countries that participate in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), Turkey has one of the lowest levels of performance and the highest rates of improvement in PISA scores between 2003 and 2012. New evidence presented in this paper suggests that existing accounts have underestimated both progress and inequity in Turkey because they did not take into account the large proportion of 15-16 year-olds that are ineligible for the PISA sampling frame, either because they are no longer in school or because they are severely delayed. Using Turkey’s Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for 2003, 2008 and 2013 we show that the proportion of 15-16 year-olds that were eligible for the PISA sample in Turkey has nearly doubled from 45% in PISA 2003, to 80% in PISA 2012. By combining DHS data on access/attainment and PISA survey data on learning outcomes we show that: (1) the improvement in the percentage of 15-16 year-olds reaching Level 2 in PISA (functional literacy and functional numeracy) is up to twice as large as that reflected in official PISA reports, (2) the gap in functional literacy rates between rich and poor youth in 2012 is 2.3 times as large as was previously thought, and (3) contrary to earlier research the gap between rich and poor has not declined between 2003 and 2012. The paper emphasises the importance of accounting for sample eligibility and representivity when making inter-country and inter-temporal comparisons using international assessment data, particularly for developing countries with expanding education systems. |
| Date: | 2017–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:154-en&r=ara |
| By: | Canan Yildirim (Kadir Has University); Adnan Kasman |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how market power in traditional intermediation affects Turkish banks’ involvement in non-interest income generating activities, in particular, fee and commission income. The results show that banks have different levels of market power in the loan and deposit markets and these, in turn, affect banks’ commitment to non-interest generating activities differently. While banks with a limited market power in the loan market are engaged more in fee and commission generating activities, banks with a high market power in the deposit market are able to generate higher commission and fee income. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:930&r=ara |
| By: | Amr Hosny (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract: | Four years after the historic uprising of the Egyptians in January 2011, we aim to understand whether the Egyptian revolution has had a different impact on different sectoral investments in the economy. Using data over the 2002Q1-2014Q2 period and a seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) approach that allows for contemporaneous correlation across sectors of the economy, we find that the revolution’s effect on sectoral investments has been adverse, on average, but heterogeneous across sectors. Results hold under a number of robustness checks. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:945&r=ara |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | The paper links Israel’s brain drain to skill-based immigration policies, prevailing in the advanced economies. |
| JEL: | F22 H1 J11 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23251&r=ara |
| By: | Hanedar, Avni Önder; Hanedar, Elmas Yaldız |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use new historical data on the most popular stocks traded at the Istanbul bourse between 1910 and 1914, to examine the effect of wars on stock market prices. During this period, the Ottoman Empire was involved in the Turco-Italian and the Balkan wars, leading to massive land losses before the First World War. The data are manually collected from the available volumes of two daily Ottoman newspapers, Tercüman-ı Hakikat and Tanin. Our findings are quite surprising, as we observe only a temporary and small drop of prices, indicating little perceived risk by stock investors of the Istanbul bourse. |
| Keywords: | the Istanbul stock exchange,stocks,the Turco-Italian war,the Balkan wars,structural breaks |
| JEL: | G1 N25 N45 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eabhps:1702&r=ara |
| By: | Hind Hourmat Allah (Faculté de Droit, Marrakech); Brahim Elmorchid |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the factors explaining the use of social science research by the development NGOs. To achieve this, we adopted an analytical approach by highlighting the results of a survey of 92 Moroccan NGOs operating in the field of economic development. The analysis of the data allowed us to identify a number of strong results. Thus, contrary to a widely shared idea in the academic community, the gap between research priorities and needs expressed by civil society is not clearly visible. Although the majority of development NGOs is still young and that the material conditions of researchers are generally unfavorable, there are enormous opportunities for dialogue, exchange and cooperation between the two communities. Also, the use of social science research is generally satisfactory. The construction of a PLS model suggests that this variable is strongly associated with three characteristics of the president of the NGO (seniority, position held and level of training), to only one feature of the NGO (the appreciation of instrumental research), and three characteristics of the context (relational proximity, assimilation effort, and diffusion mechanisms of research). |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:946&r=ara |
| By: | Park , Bokyeong (Kyung Hee University - Graduate School of Pan-Pacific Studies); Kim , Yong Bok (Seoul Institute of Economic and Social Studies (SIEC)); Park , Chul Hyung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Hussien , Shaimaa (Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC)) |
| Abstract: | Korean Abstract: 이집트는 중동 및 북아프리카 국가 중 인구규모나 자원보유 측면에서 잠재력이 큰 국가이다. 그리고 석유나 가스 등 자원에 대한 경제적 의존도가 압도적으로 크지 않고, 제조업의 기반이 어느 정도 갖추어져 있기 때문에 산업화를 통해 경제구조의 다변화와 성장을 지속할 수 있는 잠재성도 있다. 최근정치적 격변으로 정치적 불안정의 요인을 갖고 있기는 하지만, 이집트 정부는 산업화를 통한 성장정책을 계속 추구할 것이다. 본 보고서는 이러한 인식을 바탕으로 향후 이집트 산업정책의 바람직한 방향을 검토하고, 이집트의 산업화에 한국의 정부나 기업이 협력함으로써 양국 경제관계를 강화할 수 있는 방안을 모색하고자 하였다. 이집트는 한국과 마찬가지로 산업화를 달성하고 산업구조를 고도화하려고 노력하였지만 성공하지 못하였다. 1950~60년대 국영기업 중심의 수입대체 공업화는 생산성 정체와 무역수지 적자를 낳으면서 실패하였으며, 이후 1990년대부터 본격적으로 수출을 통한 세계시장으로의 진입을 노렸지만 산업정책적 지원을 이미 받고 있던 제조업체의 기득권을 보호하는 데 그쳐 새로운 산업, 더 높은 기술산업으로의 발전을 이루어내지 못하였다. 그리하여 이집트의 산업구조는 석유 및 화학, 섬유 및 의류, 식음료 등 전통적 저부가가치 산업에 집중되었으며, 수출 역시 저기술 수준의 이들 부문에 편중되게 되었다. 산업정책 측면에서 한국은 국제분업구조에서 한 단계 높은 지위를 차지하기 위해 새로운 고기술 제품을 전략산업으로 삼아 정부 차원에서 집중적으로 육성했다. 반면 이집트는 제조업 전체를 지원하기는 했지만, 특정 산업을 새로운 전략산업으로 집중적으로 육성하지는 않았다. 새로운 산업의 진출과 수출산업화를 위해 정부의 강력한 행정력이 동원된 한국과 달리 이집트는 기득권을 가진 업체를 보호하는 정책을 사용하였다. 기술 및 생산능력을 제고시킬 지렛대 역할을 할 외국인직접투자, 수출자유지역 및 공업단지, 기술 및 인력 개발정책 면에서도 산업을 육성하는 데 부족함이 있었으며, 부패와 복잡한 행정절차(red tape)가 산업 발전을 가로막았다. 군사 쿠데타로 집권한 엘시시 정부의 산업정책은 개방과 자유화정책 기조가 유지되는 가운데 빠른 경제성장과 고용증대를 위해 관광업, 토목 등 건설업, 정보통신기술(ICT) 산업의 육성을 우선시하고 있다. 한편 재정적자로 재원 조달이 어려워져 민간자본과 협력하는 PPP 방식의 개발과 외국인직접투자 유치에 힘쓰고 있다. 한국의 경험, 이집트가 처해 있는 상황과 현 정부의 산업정책을 고려할 때 이집트의 바람직한 산업정책 방향은 다음과 같은 것으로 분석되었다. 첫째, 고용흡수력이 큰 제조업의 육성이 필요하며, 특히 전략산업을 선정하여 이를 집중적으로 육성할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 단기적으로는 사회간접시설 구축 등 토목사업과 노동집약적 산업발전에 노력하여 고용 증대와 성장에 힘쓰되, 중장기적으로는 전략산업 육성과 서비스업 발전을 통해 산업구조 고도화를 추구해야 할 것이다. 셋째, 현실적으로 이집트의 산업발전을 가져올 수 있는 가장 큰 힘은 외국인직접투자이므로 유인체제를 강화해야 한다. 특히 노동자 해고의 어려움, 자국노동자 고용의무비율 등 노동 분야의 제약을 해소하고 행정절차를 간소화 및 신속화할 필요가 있다. 넷째, 성공적인 산업정책 집행을 위해서는 정치적 안정, 부패 제거, 정부의 효율성 제고가 전제되어야 한다. 이러한 정책방향하에서 이집트가 직면하게 될 중요한 과제 중 하나는 구체적으로 어떤 산업을 집중적으로 육성할 것인가 하는 문제이다. 즉 전략산업의 선정에 관한 문제이다. 한 나라의 전략산업을 선정하기 위해서는 크게 세 가지 측면을 고려할 필요가 있다. 첫째는 산업별 경쟁력 측면이다. 특히 수출을 통해 산업화를 달성하려고 한다면 산업의 국제경쟁력을 고려해야 한다. 현재의 상대적 경쟁력을 활용하면서 산업고도화를 달성하기 위해서는 중위수준의 비교우위를 가진 산업을 육성하는 동태적 비교우위 전략이 바람직할 것이다. 둘째는 세계시장 전반의 성장성을 산업별로 비교하여, 향후 성장전망이 높은 산업을 전략산업으로 선정하는 것이 바람직하다. 마지막으로 국민경제적 파급효과를 극대화하기 위해 연관산업, 부가가치, 고용창출 효과가 큰 산업을 전략산업으로 선정하는 것이 유리하다. 이러한 세 가지 측면을 양적으로 분석한 결과, 1차금속 제조업, 비금속광물 제조업, 음식료품 제조업, 화학산업, 섬유산업, 금속 제조업, 전기기계 제조업, 고무 및 플라스틱 산업, 가구 제조업의 9개 산업이 전략산업으로 선정되었다. 이집트의 유망 전략산업 중 1차금속 제조업, 화학산업, 고무 및 플라스틱산업, 전기기계산업, 식료품 제조업의 5개 산업은 한국기업이 해외직접투자 형태로 진출할 가능성이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 이 외에 한？이집트 산업협력 방안을 크게 두 가지로 나누어 살펴보았다. 즉 이집트의 전반적 산업발전에 필요한 기반 조성 차원의 협력방안과 개별 산업 차원에서 협력 및 진출방안을 살펴보았다. 전자를 위해서는 전력공급 확충, 건설부문 지원, 기타 협력방안을 검토했다. 전력산업 분야에서는 투자개발형 사업 진출 필요성, 한？GCC 투자사업 공동진출 방안, 한국과 UAE 공조를 통한 원전 건설사업 진출 등을 강조하였다. 건설 분야에서는 이집트 정부 추진 메가 프로젝트나 지역개발은행의 지원사업 참여, 건축자재 시장 진출강화 등이 필요한 것으로 분석되었다. 산업기반 조성을 위한 기타 협력방안으로는 한국기업만을 위한 전용경제특구를 이집트 내에 공동으로 조성하는 방안, 한국의 산업정책 경험 특히 산업정책의 모니터링과 성과평가 방안을 공유하는 사업 추진, 그리고 기초과학 개발에 필요한 연구역량과 인력양성을 지원하는 방안을 제시하였다. 개별 산업 차원의 분석에서는 석유화학산업, 식품산업, 소비자 가전산업에서의 협력 및 진출 방안을 모색하였다. 한국 대기업 진출 분야 중 하나로 석유화학산업을, 중견 및 중소기업 진출 분야 중 하나로 식품산업을, 이집트의 선도적 산업정책 추진 시 진출유망 분야 중 하나로 소비자 전자산업을 선택하였다. 석유화학산업에서는 인도기업 사례를 활용한 현지 투자 참여, 국영석유화학 기업의 민영화 참여, 기초화학 분야 국책연구원 설립지원과 산관학협력 등이 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 식품산업에서는 내수시장 외 인근 중동？아프리카 지역 수출기지로서 이집트 활용, 현지 유력 에이전트를 통한 시장 진출, 중국 및 선진국 시장 간의 틈새시장 발굴 등을 강조하였다. 소비자 가전 부문에서는 완제품과 부품공장 동반진출 필요성, 전자부품 현지생산 확대, 이집트 내 전자생산단지 조성, 단지 내 연구개발센터와 직업훈련기관 설립 등을 협력방안으로 제시하였다. English Abstract: Egypt is one of the economy in the Middle East and North Africa with great potential in terms of population size and natural resource reserves. As well, it may realize economic growth and diversification through industrialization because it doesn't depend on oil or natural gas excessively and currently has basic foundations in manufacturing sectors. Starting from this assessment on the Egyptian economy, this study inquires into the appropriate direction of Egypt's future industrial policy and, further, aims to propose some policy measures to strengthen economic ties between Egypt and Korea. Egypt, as Korea did, adopted industrial policies for industrialization and industrial upgrading merely to be unsuccessful. Import substitution industrial policy in the 1950s and 1960s led to only stagnant productivity and large trade deficits. Later in the 1990s, Egypt shifted its policy toward export promotion, but the policy ended with protection for vested interests of old uncompetitive manufacturers. The result left the Egyptian economy heavily dependent on staple industries with low value-added such as textile and clothing, food, and oil and chemistry. While Korea promoted new high-tech industries as strategic sectors to level up its position in the international value chain, Egypt adopted a strategy to support all of manufacturing sectors rather selected industries. Policies to attract foreign direct investment, to develop attractive industrial zones, and to produce technology and skilled labors were also disappointing, which was mainly attributable to corruption and red-tape. Relying on Korea's experiences with consideration of the current situations in and around the Egyptian economy, this study suggests some directions for the future industrial policy in Egypt. First, Egypt needs to selectively support strategic industries with large employment absorption capacity. Second, Egypt needs to upgrade its industrial structure in the mid or long run, although in the short run it may focus on investment in infrastructure and mega civil engineering projects for prompt job creation. Third, Egypt needs to refine incentive mechanism to attract FDI by enhancing labor market flexibility and streamlining administrative procedure. Last, Egypt needs to ensure political stability, corruption control, and government efficiency, which are all preconditions for successful implementation of an industrial policy. When selecting strategic industries, Egypt should mainly consider three aspects of candidate industries: static and dynamic comparative advantage, global market growth, economy-wide spill-over effect. Through considering and measuring these three aspects, this study selects 9 industries as Egyptian strategic sectors: primary metal manufacturing, non-metal mineral manufacturing, food and beverage, chemicals, textile, metal manufacturing, electric equipment, rubber and plastics, furniture. Further, this study proposes more active cooperation between Egypt and Korea in 5 industries out of 9 above: primary metal manufacturing, food and beverage, chemicals, electric equipment, rubber and plastics. This selection is based on match-making between the Egyptian strategic industries and Korea's overseas investing industries. As cooperation tools at industry level, this study suggests Korean companies' participation in the Egypt's electric power generation and distribution, creation of industrial zones in Egypt exclusively for Korean companies, sharing of Korea's experiences in industrial policy, enhancing the Egyptian capacity for R&D and vocational training, and supporting the establishment of a national chemical research institute in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | 경제협력; 산업정책 |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2015_033&r=ara |