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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Reham Rizk (British University in Egypt (BUE)) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a comparative study of private rate of return to education in Tunisia, Palestine, Sudan and Egypt using similar specifications, methodology and surveys. The paper employ 2010/2011 round of the Harmonized Household Income Expenditure Surveys of three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Tunisia and Palestine. In addition, the 2009 round of Sudan is used. The paper attempts to estimate the rate of return to schooling in four Arab countries to learn more about the pattern of rewards to different levels of schooling and how individuals use these benefits to invest in education. Moreover, the paper attempts to link the structure of returns to education to labor market institutions. The findings of the paper confirm less consistency in the structure of returns in Arab countries and this is due to difference in education quality and supply and demand of graduates which has a significant influence on returns to schooling. The findings support that returns to education increases with years of schooling in Egypt due to rigid labor market, as more attention is given to credentials on behalf of skills. The rate of return on tertiary education is higher compared to basic education in all countries in standard Mincerian model. Returns to education are higher for females than males for all countries except for Sudan and Tunisia on tertiary level after accounting for jobs and regional disparity. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:986&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); John Roemer; Djavad Salehi-Isfahani |
| Abstract: | Social justice has been a central theme in the political turmoil affecting the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Perplexingly, standard measures of inequality are not particularly high for MENA countries. One possible explanation for this apparent contradiction is that observed inequality may be masking a large share of inequality of opportunity, the unjustifiable type of inequality associated with social class or other circumstances over which an individual has no control. In this paper we extend the literature on inequality of opportunity in the MENA region by providing estimates of inequality of opportunity in incomes and consumption for Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. Our results show low levels of inequality of opportunity, as well as inequality, in income measures in the countries examined. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1003&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Caroline Krafft (Department of Economics, St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | Although it is well-established in the literature that unemployment is a labor market insertion problem in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the dynamics driving youth unemployment remain poorly understood. Using panel and retrospective data from the Labor Market Panel Surveys in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia, we are able to substantially improve our understanding of youth unemployment in MENA by studying flows into and out of employment and unemployment. We also decompose trends in the unemployment rates in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia over the past decade into the contributions of individuals entering unemployment from outside the labor force and from previous employment, and changes in the duration of unemployment these individuals experience. Models for the incidence and duration of unemployment illustrate the relationship between individuals’ characteristics and their unemployment dynamics |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:993&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Oubenal (IRCAM) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study crony capitalism through the lens of Moroccan listed companies and the role of the financial sector. We first highlight the role of banks in the history of Moroccan capitalism from the setting up of French protectorate over Morocco to the dominance of some major family groups. We then describe the concentration and the high profitability of the banking sector among listed companies. Using a network analysis of board members of the Moroccan listed companies we confirm the centrality of Finance compared to other sectors. We also measure the relational proximity to demonstrate that each cluster of the four main holding families has at least one financial company. Finally, we argue that crony interlockers, who are members of royal foundations and represent an institutional investor or a holding family that owns a bank and/or an insurance company, are the most central actors in the network of listed companies. Our contribution to crony capitalism in MENA countries analyses the politics of finance in a neoliberal and peripheral country such as Morocco. Boone and Henry (2004) had described the banking sector in Morocco as a private oligopoly. Here we evidence that the monarchy and its entourage are capturing corporate governance instruments such as board membership to control economic activities. |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1066&r=ara |
| By: | Rania Salem (University of Toronto); Sarah Shah |
| Abstract: | Although kin marriage is widely practiced in the MENA, the rationales that are thought to motivate kin marriage have not been widely tested. We test three rationales for kin unions among ever-married women using the Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia Labor Market Surveys. The first rationale for kin unions is to consolidate family property and avoid its fragmentation through the marriage of relatives. We find that the first rationale is supported only by the Tunisian data, where women whose parents worked in a family firm were more likely to marry relatives in some models. A second rationale is to reduce the financial outlays made on marriage. We find that kin unions involved lower matrimonial expenditures and more expenditures by the groom’s side in Egypt alone, thus partially confirming the second rationale. A third rationale motivating kin marriage is the belief that brides who marry relatives will enjoy advantages vis-a-vis their husbands and in-laws. Here, we find that Egyptian and Tunisian women in kin unions had less decision-making influence, contrary to our expectations, whereas Jordanian women in kin unions had more decision-making influence. |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1067&r=ara |
| By: | Mahmoud Haddad (University of Tennessee-Martin, Martin); Sam Hakim |
| Abstract: | We analyze the role of banks in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, pre-and post-revolution, and find that the volume of credit they offered to the private sector was neutral to real economic growth. Supported by a recent IMF study that ranks banking regulation and supervision “poor” or “below- average” in four out of the five countries under study, we attribute the limited effectiveness of their banks to government intervention in credit allocation and pricing. Our results cast doubt on the banks’ ability to lead an economic recovery, and suggest that monetary policy alone will not be successful within the first three years. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:965&r=ara |
| By: | Reham Rizk (British University in Cairo); Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | The paper attempts to present a comparative study for patterns of household expenditure on education using different groups of population. The paper based its empirics on cross sectional evidence from four countries employing Harmonized Household Income and expenditure surveys. The datasets used are 2010/2011 round of the HHIES of Egypt, Jordan and Palestine and 2009 round for Sudan. The paper aims to examine the determinants of family spending on education on one hand and the magnitude of household spending on schooling using different population groups. The paper finds a degree of consistency in the patterns of spending on education across countries. We find that households in lower social strata are found to spend more on educating their children’s at all educational level with exception in Egypt, where wealthier household are found to spend more on children’s education. Moreover, Parental education and household income have a great influence on the magnitude of household spending on education. Household living in center provinces are more likely to spend more on children’s schooling except Sudan. With respect to demographic burden, households with children at primary schooling children are likely to spend less on education, while households with children at secondary and tertiary level of schooling are willing to spend more on education with except in Egypt at tertiary level. Egypt is the only country where free education policy is extended to university students. Despite, all Arab governments are adopting free education policy at elementary level, households still spend considerable amount of their household income on acquiring education, which is expected to be funded by government. Coefficients of elasticity’s show that both Sudan and Palestine considered spending on education is a necessity component in the household budget, while in Egypt, households at top income quintiles had the largest spending on education and Jordan is estimated to have unitary elasticity. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:996&r=ara |
| By: | Tamer Taha (United Nations University) |
| Abstract: | In a region with a tradition and abundance of rent-seeking behavior, innovation in MENA countries is key for growth and development. However many inherited institutional barriers are still locking the potentials for a transition towards a knowledge and innovation-based economy. Using recently collected firm-level data from MENA countries, this article explores the effect of institutional obstacles in Egypt and Tunisia on the innovative behavior of firms. Recognizing the potential risk of endogeneity and simultaneity, the paper uses a conditional recursive mixed-process model (CMP) to estimate the micro level interactions that occur between corruption and business permits. The results show a positive effect of corruption on innovation only as a “greasing” mechanism to bypass the bureaucratic obstacles of business permits. Such an effect is even more pronounced if the firm is surrounded by other firms with corrupt practices. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:982&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Elbadawi; Chahir Zaki (Cairo University and ERF) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a new dataset available for four countries (Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Yemen), this paper assesses the claim that real exchange rate undervaluation affects both the quantity of exports (intensive margin) and the probability of exporting a certain product to a certain destination (extensive margin) of trade in Arab countries. We find robust evidence suggesting that RER depreciation/undervaluation promotes exports at both the intensive and the extensive margins. Moreover, when financial openness is driven by FDI the latter reinforces the RER effects, but it tends to counter it when it is mainly dominated by non-FDI flows. In this case there will be even a more dire need for a higher economy-wide subsidy through an undervalued real currency in order for manufacturing exporting firms to grow at the intensive margin, and especially for overcoming the more challenging impediments of opening new markets or developing new export products. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1004&r=ara |
| By: | Tammuz Alraheb (University of Limoges); Amine Tarazi |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of global and local crises on bank stability and examine the effect of owning bank subsidiaries in other countries. We consider banks from MENA countries which experienced both types of crises during our sample period. Our findings highlight a negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 on bank stability but, on the whole, no negative impact of the 'Arab Spring'. A deeper investigation shows that owning subsidiaries outside the home country is a source of increased fragility during normal times, yet a source of higher stability during the 'Arab Spring' but not during the global financial crisis. Moreover, owning foreign subsidiaries in one or two world regions is insufficient to neutralize the ‘Arab Spring’ crisis, while being present in three or more regions is more stabilizing during the 'Arab Spring' but also more destabilizing during the global financial crisis. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank stability and have several policy implications. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1045&r=ara |
| By: | Nelly El-Mallakh (Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mathilde Maurel; Biagio Speciale |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of the 2011 Egyptian protests on the relative labor market conditions of women using panel information from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). We construct our measure of intensity of the protests – the governorate-level number of “martyrs” (i.e., demonstrators who died during the protests) - using unique information from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution. We find that the 2011 protests have reduced the gender gap in labor force participation by increasing women’s unemployment and private sector employment. The political change has mostly affected the relative labor market outcomes of women in households at the bottom of the pre-revolution income distribution. We link these findings to the literature showing how a relevant shock to the labor division between women and men may have long run consequences on the role of women in society. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:957&r=ara |
| By: | Reham Rizk (British University in Egypt); Hala Abou-Ali |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the prevalence of out-of-pocket catastrophic health expenditure and pinpoints the factors associated with its risk in Egypt and Palestine. Data used in this research is obtained from the ERF Harmonized Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for Egypt and Palestine in 2010/2011. Finite mixed models are applied to assess the socio-economic indicators of catastrophic impacts of out-of-pocket health expenditure. The results suggest that rich households are more likely to incur catastrophic health expenditure compared to the poor households. The probability of catastrophic health expenditure is higher in rural areas and among elderly household members. |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1065&r=ara |
| By: | Zafiris Tzannatos (Lebanese Center for Policy Studies); Ishac Diwan (Paris School of Economics); Joanna Abdel Ahad |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset, the study fills an important empirical gap in discussions about labor outcomes in the Arab region by estimating the rates of return to education (RoRE) for all 22 Arab countries. Since we use the same global data set and empirical specification for all countries of the world, our estimates are comparable between countries and between regions of the world. Compared to other regions, our results for the Arab region show that the RoRE are low but, in relative terms, those for Arab women are higher than those for Arab men. Similarly we find that the region has on average a zero public sector wage premium for men but a high one for women. The public sector premium is high for men in the GCC but low, even negative, in the rest of the region. Still, the overall RoRE are lowest in the GCC. The region’s RoRE are the result of higher than average returns to primary education and a very low ones to secondary and tertiary education. Noting the high prevalence of unemployment, especially among the more educated job seekers in the region, and that the RoRE are affected by both labor supply and labor demand, our results suggest that there should be more policy emphasis on the reasons behind the low labor demand, especially for higher skills, in the region. This is particularly relevant for the private sector that is still characterized by rentier practices though it is tasked to create more employment in the future compared with the public sector. Low labor demand depresses wages and reduces the incentive to invest in education unless there is an expectation for getting a job in the public sector or abroad. In fact, the Arab region has one of the highest rates of skilled emigration in the world. This hurts not only short term prospects of Arab workers but also the long term welfare of citizens in the region. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1007&r=ara |
| By: | Bob Rijkers (The World Bank); Leila Baghdadi; Gael Raballand |
| Abstract: | Are politically connected firms more likely to evade taxes? This paper presents evidence suggesting firms owned by President Ben Ali and his family were more prone to evading import tariffs. During Ben Ali’s reign, evasion gaps, defined as the difference between the value of exports to Tunisia reported by partner countries and the value of imports reported at Tunisian customs, were correlated with the import share of connected firms. This association was especially strong for goods subject to high tariffs, and driven by underreporting of unit prices, which diminished after the revolution. Consistent with these product-level patterns, unit prices reported by connected firms were lower than those reported by other firms, and declined faster with tariffs than those of other firms. Moreover, privatization to the Ben Ali family was associated with a reduction in reported unit prices, whereas privatization per se was not. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:961&r=ara |
| By: | Aurora Angeli (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyze dynamics in the late-life living arrangements and changes in socio-economic and health condition of the elderly in Egypt in recent years. Research questions refer to the determinants of ageing in Egypt and to the disparities existing and emerging at the gender and place of residence levels. Our focus is on the role intergenerational ties and transfers, both public and within the family, have in alleviating the precarious situations of older persons. This paper intends to help fill the gap in the study of this topic, which is still understudied in the country as well as in the MENA area more generally. The research refers to individual data from all three rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS), carried out in 1998, 2006, and 2012. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:971&r=ara |
| By: | Yosr Abid (Technical and Practical Assistance to Development, Tunisia); Cathal O'Donoghue; Denisa Sologon |
| Abstract: | In order to understand the main drivers of welfare inequality in Egypt and Tunisia, the present paper presents an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach used to decompose differences across distributions of household expenditures, based on counterfactual distributions in the two countries of analysis. Taking Tunisia as a reference country, we find that changes in the expenditures structure and demographics are inequality decreasing. Changes in the characteristics of the labor market has, however, no, or very limited, impact on inequality as captured by the Gini Index. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1015&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Abdurrahman Aydemir; Meltem Dayioglu; Guray Kirdar |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the returns to schooling in Egypt using a policy reform that reduced primary school from 6 to 5 years. As a result of this reform, which was implemented in 1988, compulsory schooling declined from 9 to 8 years. The results indicate that the reform led to a substantial decline in completed years of schooling among the affected cohorts. We exploit this policy change to estimate the causal impact of schooling on wages and find that among men ages 20 to 45 the return of schooling is between 2.0 to 5.7 percent. These estimated returns are much lower than the wage returns estimated in other developing countries with the exception of Turkey where returns to schooling are found to be similarly low. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1000&r=ara |
| By: | Riham Ahmed Ezzat (Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne and Cairo University); Nora Aboushady |
| Abstract: | The past decade has witnessed a significant transformation in the trade and regulatory policies of the telecom sector across the MENA region. Many countries committed to opening up their telecom sector to trade and investment under WTO commitments. However, these commitments do not always reflect actual policies. Although some MENA countries started easing telecom market restrictions and tended to adopt more open policies, other countries are still reluctant to change and continue to adopt highly restrictive policies limiting foreign ownership and control in the market. This paper empirically assesses the impact of the existing telecom restrictions on landline and mobile sector performance, using the World Bank Services Trade Restrictiveness Database (STRD), with a focus on MENA countries. We use three-stage least squares-Seemingly Unrelated Regression (3SLS-SUR) to test for the effect of restrictions and the level of competition in the telecom sector on selected performance indicators. Our findings suggest that restrictive telecom policies are more likely to affect landline rather than mobile communications. Moreover, being a MENA country affects the level of competition in the landline market. MENA countries are very protective of their incumbent operators, irrespective of the stipulated legal restrictions in place. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:949&r=ara |
| By: | Hossam ELdin Mohammed Abdelkader (Ain Shams University, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to determine if there is a relationship between political instability, uncertainty, and political regime, on the one hand, and economic growth in Egypt, on the other. According to the literature, there is a relationship between political regime and stability and economic performance. However, the empirical studies show different results for different regions, different countries, and different periods. Studies concerning the effect of political instability on economic growth are rich in the case of some countries, but are not for other developing countries, like Egypt. This paper tries to estimate the robust relationship between economic growth in Egypt and political instability, uncertainty, and political regime, and estimates their impact on the Egyptian economy during the last four decades. Furthermore, the paper tests the uncertainty impact, resulting from unstable political and economic conditions on economic growth in Egypt. Accordingly, time-series data are used from 1972 to 2013 under the cointegration approach to determine the short- and long-run relationships. Moreover, a GARCH model approach is used in Error-Correction Model (ECM) to introduce the uncertainty impact, and Pesaran’s bound test is used to confirm the results. Results assert the positive impact of the level of democracy on economic growth, while they assert the negative impact of uncertainty on economic growth. However, the impact of political instability on economic growth is ambiguous in the case of Egypt. The results are helpful for policymakers targeting Egypt’s economic growth in the short- and long-runs. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:953&r=ara |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif (Swansea University); Tapas Mishra; Anita Staneva |
| Abstract: | This paper presents rigorous mechanisms to study how persistent democratic shocks in one country produce spillover effects and comprise a major determinant in dynamic growth interdependence among nations. Taking the case of the Arab Spring in particular and employing both spatial and panel VAR mechanisms, we demonstrate that stronger relational ‘proximity’ among nations with respect to democracy is likely to trigger similar institutional reforms and growth upsurges in the neighborhood. Democratization event chronology is employed to identify transitional dynamics among countries’ democratic pathways. A comprehensive model of transmission mechanism and response of democratic is further initiated by estimating a Global Vector Autoregression method among nineteen Arab countries. Our analysis reveals patterns of discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, presenting how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world’s regions. The main finding suggests that the current revolutionary waves in the Arab World can be understood in light of the economic situation in a given country. More specifically, we find that high and upper middle income countries are immune to the recent democratic shock transference, whereas the lower middle and low income countries seem to be perfect candidates of another revolutionary wave. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:954&r=ara |
| By: | Walid Jebili (University of Sousse); Lotfi Belkacem |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how sectoral shifts and industry specialization patterns have influenced Tunisian labor market performance in the recent past years. Building on a sequential spatial framework, while taking into account spatial dependencies and externalities, our empirical investigation highlights that sectoral shifts and congestion effects induced by labor-supply growth exert a negative impact on unemployment dynamics. Our results suggest that some Marshallian externalities manage to soften, and even reverse, the diversification induced effect on unemployment. Moreover, we report high spatial dependence, which evidences a higher degree of contagion. Additionally, negative spillovers of sectoral shifts contrast with positive spillovers of specialization pattern, initial unemployment rate, labor-supply growth and the excess labor demand growth rate. Finally, the revolution had a detrimental effect on unemployment growth, except in the center-west region where unemployment was an inevitable result of an inner-process. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:952&r=ara |
| By: | Bob Rijkers (The World Bank); Hassen Arouri; Caroline Freund (World Bank); Antonio Nucifora |
| Abstract: | This paper examines private sector job creation in Tunisia over the period 1996-2010 using a unique database containing information on all registered private enterprises, including self-employment. In spite of stable GDP growth, overall net job creation was disappointing and firm dynamics were sluggish. The firm size distribution has remained skewed towards small firms, because of stagnation of incumbents and entrants starting small, typically as one-person firms (i.e., self-employment). Churning is limited, especially amongst large firms, and very few firms manage to grow. Post-entry, small firms are the worst performers in terms of job creation, even if they survive. Moreover, the association between productivity, profitability and job creation is feeble, pointing towards weaknesses in the re-allocative process. Weak net job creation thus appears to be due to insufficient firm dynamism rather than excessive job destruction. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:956&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed Elsayed; Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics of informality and the extent to which informal workers (without job contracts) transit to formal employment (with job contracts) and whether this transition has changed over time and in particular during the recent political and economic turmoil in Egypt. It also investigates the potential gains/losses associated with holding a job contract. Using panel data from Egypt, we find that after the Arab Spring Revolution, the probability to work without a contract increased, and conditional on being informally employed, the probability to switch from private informal to private formal employment decreased. We also find that working without contract is associated with pay penalty. This pay penalty has increased significantly over time. Furthermore, using Difference in difference techniques, the results show that moving from employment without contract to one with contract is associated with a substantial wage premium. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1001&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Hashemi (Ashland University, Ashland, OH) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the pro-poorness of economic growth in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Based on Ravallion and Chen(2003)’s poverty reducing definition of pro-poorness which only requires reduction in poverty and ignores the distributional impact of growth, we characterize economic growth in all three countries throughout the decade as pro-poor, with the exception of Palestine during the first half of the decade. On the other hand, using Kakwani and Pernia (2000)’s definition which includes both poverty reduction and distributional aspects and characterizes a growth pattern as pro-poor only if it favors the poor, we find that only Egypt’s growth can be characterized as pro-poor for most combinations of poverty measures and poverty lines. Jordan’s growth, although remained high throughout the decade, can only be characterized as pro-poor in the second half of this period. Finally, neither Palestine’s economic downturn in the first half of the decade nor its following economic recovery in the second half can be characterized as pro-poor. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1008&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Samir Ghazouani (ISCAE, Manouba, Tunisia); Caroline Krafft (St.Catherine University); Dominique J. Rolando |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey (TLMPS) of 2014, the first round of a publicly-available nationally representative longitudinal household survey. We provide a description of the sample and questionnaires. We discuss a number of data collection issues, such as non-response, as well as what was done to address these issues. The construction of sample weights is detailed. A comparison of the TLMPS to other Tunisian datasets is conducted to illustrate the representativeness of the data in terms of key demographic and labor market measures. Key features of the Tunisian labor market and potential avenues for research using the TLMPS are discussed. |
| Date: | 2016–01–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1040&r=ara |
| By: | Jeffrey B. Nugent (University of Southern California); Malgorzata Switek; Fengyu Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper relates four aspects of an individual’s religion (the religion itself, its importance to the individual, and their interactions with each other, whether or not that religion is the dominant one in the country and the individual’s relative income) to six important socio-political attitudes. Two of these attitudes can be regarded as socio-economic objectives (the responsibilities that government should assume, and adherence to the norm of not cheating on taxes). The other four may be considered as four different political means of achieving these objectives (willingness to engage in political activity, to defend freedom of speech, to “give people more say” and to maintain order). The primary objective is to shed light on the political economy and governance issues in countries like those of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where religious, economic and political differences are strongly interrelated, and already giving rise to social tension and in some cases political instability. The analysis is focused on testing three different but rather general hypotheses concerning the relationships between the four aspects of an individual’s religious affiliation and the six attitudes under investigation. It makes use of data on over 215,000 individuals in 90 countries from Waves 2-6 of the World Value Surveys (WVS). Once the various interactions between religious affiliation and related characteristics are taken into consideration, the relationships between the various different religious affiliations and each of the six attitudes under study are shown to vary in ways that cast doubt on the validity of existing stereotypes of these relations. The results highlight a number of patterns in these relationships that may provide useful insights into the direction that socio-economic policies are likely to take in the years ahead in different MENA countries. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:972&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Turkey: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Pensions;Labor markets;Pension reforms;Housing;Housing prices;Tourism;Selected Issues Papers;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/33&r=ara |
| By: | Elif Öznur Acar (Cankaya University); Seyit Mümin Cilasun; Burak Günalp |
| Abstract: | Using Turkish Household Budget Surveys from 2003, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the determinants of household education expenditures within an Engel curve framework. In particular, we estimate Tobit regressions of real educational expenditures by income groups using a number of household characteristics (i.e. rural residence, employment status, age, educational attainment of the household head, household size, share of female students and primary school students in the household, and total number of students in the household) to examine if and to what extent the determinants of educational expenditures differ by income groups; income elasticities of educational spending evolves over time; and children from middle-class and poor families can benefit enough from educational opportunities. The estimated expenditure elasticities have lower values for the top- and the bottom-income quartiles while they have larger values for the middle-income quartiles. The results also show that for all income groups the expenditure elasticity of education increases over time, indicating that Turkish households allocates greater share of their budgets to education expenditures |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:991&r=ara |
| By: | Anda David (PSL Université Paris Dauphine); Joachim Jarreau |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of emigration at the individual and household level, using three waves of the Egyptian labor market panel survey (ELMPS) covering the 1998-2012 period. Exploiting the panel structure of the data allows us to reduce the risk of reverse causality, and to estimate the effect of migrant networks more accurately than in existing studies based on cross-sectional data. We confirm, in the Egyptian context, that migrants abroad are positively selected on the wealth of the origin household, due to migration costs; and that the growth of a network of past emigrants from the same community mitigates this positive selection, increasing the propensity to migrate among poorer households. We also offer a novel insight on the linkages between emigration decision and home country’s labor market conditions. We show that unemployment and informal employment appear as the main incentives to emigrate. This suggests that the scarcity of “quality jobs”, in particular on the skilled labor market, is one important factor driving emigration flows in Egypt. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:987&r=ara |
| By: | Leila Baghdadi; Hendrik Kruse (University of Goettingen); Inma Martínez-Zarzoso |
| Abstract: | In this paper we evaluate the extent to which changes in tariffs and in international prices are transmitted into consumer prices in Tunisia over the period 2000 to 2008. A pass-through equation is estimated using sectoral panel data at the retail-product level and controlling for unobserved sectoral heterogeneity. The main results show that on average tariff pass-through is 7 percent and that it varies across sectors. In particular, agricultural products seem to be driving the results. Summarizing, the change in Tunisian tariffs has affected local prices, but the effect is lower in magnitude than that found for other developing countries. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:963&r=ara |
| By: | Anda David (Agence Française de Development, Paris, France); Rana Hendy |
| Abstract: | Marriage represents an important step of entering adulthood in the Egyptian society and its delay often results in tensions and frustration among youth. Considering migration as a predetermined strategy to reach a targeted level of savings, we question whether having migrated helps shorten the duration to marriage in the case of Egypt. To the best of our knowledge, the present study will be the first to link the timing of migration to the timing of marriage in the case of Egypt. We find no effect of migration on the timing of marriage, except within the migrant population. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1051&r=ara |
| By: | Hanan Nazier; Racha Ramadan (Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This research deals with female labor force participation and its determinants in the Egyptian society using the “Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey” (ELMPS) 2012. More precisely, the paper studies the individual, households and community determinants of the Egyptian woman’s decision to enter the labor force. It answered the question on whether these determinants are affecting her decision to be employed or not and to be employed in the public sector or not, once she entered the labor force. Our results show that factors affecting women’s labor force participation decision are not the same and may not play the same role for their decision concerning her employment status, once they enter the labor market. Moreover, community context plays an important role in their labor force participation decision, but once an Egyptian woman enters the labor force, community context is not a significant determinant anymore concerning her employment status. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:999&r=ara |
| By: | Mouna Ben Othman; Mohamed Ali Marouani (Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an overlapping general equilibrium framework to capture the interactions among pension reform, labor market and inter-generational distribution issues in Tunisia. The impact on the labor market is addressed at the aggregate level but also by distinguishing different age categories. The three reform scenarios implemented to reduce the social security deficit consist in increasing social security contributions, reducing the replacement rate and postponing the retirement age. The main result obtained is that increasing contribution rates is the worst solution in terms of welfare and unemployment, particularly for the youth. The best option is postponing the retirement age. Contrary to the traditional wisdom, it does not entail an increase of youth unemployment. For the two scenarios where aggregate welfare increases, the middle-aged are those that benefit the most from the reforms. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1019&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | The fundamental stability challenges confronting the Turkish financial system are to reduce dependence on external and foreign currency financing and to increase the maturity and diversity of funding instruments on which banks and firms depend. The long-standing shortfall of national savings to finance domestic investment, persistent elevated inflation, and bouts of exchange rate volatility have boosted reliance on foreign currency financing from international capital markets and have also incentivized households and firms to place their own savings in short-term deposits, as well as in foreign currency. |
| Keywords: | Financial system stability assessment;Financial sector;Banks;Credit risk;Stress testing;Bank supervision;Liquidity management;Corporate sector;Financial safety nets;Basel Core Principles;Insurance supervision;Payment systems;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/35&r=ara |
| By: | Hoda El Enbaby (Economic Research Forum (ERF)); Rami Galal (School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London) |
| Abstract: | Inequality has often been cited as one of the leading sources of discontent in Egypt and one of the causes of the 2011 revolution. However, there is no consensus on how much inequality exists or what its root causes are. In this paper, we attempt to contribute to filling this gap by estimating the extent to which factors related to the circumstances a person is born into contribute to inequality of opportunity in earnings as well as in wealth or asset distribution. We use three rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), spanning the period 1998 to 2012, to conduct the analysis. Our results indicate that circumstances account for a lower bound of 9%-11% of inequality of opportunity in earnings and 30%-33% with respect to inequality of asset distribution. We also find that area of birth and father’s education level are the two most important circumstantial factors contributing to inequality of opportunity. Our interpretation of the results is that the two measures are complementary in that earnings are associated with flows, and assets are the stock of that and other flows over a longer period of time. In that sense, inequality of opportunity in earnings gives a better indication of inequality in the short run, while inequality in the household assets distribution gives a better sense of inequality in the long run. This interpretation has important policy implications, suggesting the need for two courses of action to bring about a more egalitarian society: the first is to limit excessive variations in current earnings and the other is to narrow the degree of wealth concentration. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:942&r=ara |
| By: | Rana Hendy (Economic Research Forum) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the changes in the determinants of labor force participation over time, using the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) for the years 1998, 2006 and 2012. Controlling for individual and household characteristics, a multinomial logit model is estimated to analyze the determinants of participation by status and sector of employment. The empirical results show that the effect of parental education on the individual’s decision of employment has weakened if not disappeared over time but the effect of the individual’s own education has increased. For instance, in 2012, fathers’ education has no effect on females’ or males’ employment decisions as used to be the case in 1998 and 2006. This result confirms the decreasing role of background characteristics that are out of the individual’s control and the increasing role of the factors that individuals are able to change through their own decisions. According to Hendy (2015), female labor force participation in Egypt remains relatively low and has even decreased over the period from 2006 to 2012, confirming that the January 25th revolution has had a negative effect on women’s status in the labor market. This is also confirmed in the present paper. The results of the multinomial logit model show that women have lower probability of employment in all sectors (government and private) relative to their males counterparts. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:973&r=ara |
| By: | Houda Haffoudhi (FSEGN, University of Carthage); Racem Mehdi; Gam Abdelkader |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to identify, in the light of the Arab spring, the conditions favorable for democratic transition and to analyze the specific experience of Arab countries concerned by regime change. We use a large set of indicators and the self-organizing map (SOM) approach as an alternative analytical tool. Countries are then mapped considering data related to 33 indicators from 121 countries, four years (1984, 1991, 2002 and 2013), including economic, social, demographic, societal and political variables, as well as indicators related to institutional framework. Mapping allows us to link countries configuration to their democratization levels. Then, the SVM clustering methodology is used to cluster the prototypes produced by the SOM in order to discriminate the future successes and to determine the most influential variable on democratic success. Countries neighborhoods are based on similarity in particular characteristics. Our mapping highlights especially population age structure, globalization, health indicators, education and women participation in the society as the most important variables determining each country location which could be related to democracy level and its change over time. In Addition, unemployment, corruption, democratic accountability, and law and order, are the most influential variables distinguishing failure from democratic transition success. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:958&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamad Al-Ississ; Ishac Diwan (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We take a new look at the question of the Arab democratic exception. We use the new sixth wave of the World Value Survey, which was collected between 2012 and 2013, and which included for the first time 12 Arab countries, up from only four in wave 5. We innovate empirically, by measuring the demand for democracy in a more robust way than past studies, and conceptually, by looking at how the forces of modernist aspirations, economic grievances, social preferences, and attachment to the status-quo interact for particular socio-economic groups to determine their preference for a democratic order over an autocratic one, and how these are affected in the Arab region by specificities related to self-interest, culture, and policy. Our statistical analysis reveals a democratic gap in the Arab region, which is correlated, and thus possibly explained in parts, by lower emancipative effects of education among the educated, compared to global experience. We argue that these effects must have been shaped in parts by the policies of power preservation pursued by the autocratic regimes of the past, rather than by local culture lone. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:981&r=ara |
| By: | Maia Sieverding (University of California, San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | The importance of mothers’ educational and occupational attainments for understanding the social mobility of their children, and particularly daughters, has been increasingly emphasized as female labor force participation rates have risen in developed countries. However, few studies have yet to examine intergenerational occupational mobility between mothers and daughters in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, or contexts in which female labor force participation remains low. In this paper, I use the 1998, 2006 and 2012 waves of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey to examine the intergenerational dynamics of women’s employment in Egypt. The findings demonstrate that mothers’ work status is highly predictive of their daughters’ labor market outcomes, suggesting that there is an intergenerational dynamic to women’s employment. In addition, there is a degree of continuity in the types of work that mothers and daughters engage in. The findings suggest that the current decline in labor force participation rates among female youth, and successful policies to promote higher employment rates among young women, could have ripple effects for subsequent generations. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:978&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Amara; Hatem Jemmali (University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | This paper analysis the key factors that shape inter-governorates migration in Tunisia, focusing mainly on the role of distance, labor market characteristics, human capital and per capita expenditure in driving migration flows. It uses basic and extended gravity model as well as the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood model for modelling migration data extracted from the 2004 census. The main findings reveal that, as expected, inter-governorate migrations in Tunisia are affected by high population size at the origin and destination, high unemployment rate at the origin, low unemployment rate at the destination. The paper’s results suggest as well that migrations flows are affected negatively by high job vacancies availability and per capita expenditure at the origin. However, the contribution of wage and human capital variables in the explanation of migration was not significant. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1043&r=ara |
| By: | Hadi Salehi Esfahani (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Roksana Bahramitash |
| Abstract: | We document a relatively low share of women among small and medium enterprise (SME) owners in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This phenomenon appears to be related to the low female labor force participation (LFP) rates commonly observed in the region. However, the connection is not straightforward because the rates of large firm ownership by women in MENA are comparable and sometimes higher than some other world regions. To take a step toward understanding this puzzling pattern, we start with a framework that takes account of economy-wide interactions between firm ownership, employment, and outside options. We then use a unique cross-country micro dataset and a two-level model to separate out the role of individual characteristics from the influence of country conditions. Our first-level micro analysis suggests that the young age structure of MENA population helps explain part of MENA women’s low participation and low SME formation. At the second level, we find that the prevalence of conservative religious culture, particularly the cultural and legal rule that husbands are financially responsible for their families’ expenses, rather than sharing responsibility jointly with their wives, may be a key factor that helps explain the pattern of labor allocation. In addition, lack of government effectiveness, the relative closed-ness of MENA economies, and the gap between educational attainments of women and men in the past have also contributed to women’s low LFP and SME ownership. These are all policy areas in which governments can make a difference. We also explore the role of a number of other factors and show their roles in labor allocation, though they do not help explain the current weaknesses in patterns of participation and employment in the region. One very notable finding among these is that, in contrast to the results of many other studies, resource rents don’t seem to be responsible for low LFP and small firm formation by MENA women. Quite to the contrary, they seem to have helped raise both of these outcomes in the oil-rich countries of the region. We attribute this sharp difference in findings to the closer cross-country comparability of our data and our micro-based approach. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:951&r=ara |
| By: | Sidi Mohammed Chekouri (Faculty of Economics and Commerce, University of Tlemcen); Abderrahim Chibi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the interaction between oil-export revenue and long-run economic growth in Algeria during the period from 1979 until 2013. Our empirical analysis shows that oil revenue has a positive effect on economic growth. This means that resource abundance in itself, as proxied by oil revenue, has been a blessing for the Algerian economy and its growth and development. Our empirical findings also suggest that there is a negative relationship between oil revenue volatility and economic growth in Algeria. This finding confirms that the source of the resource curse is the high volatility existing in oil revenues, rather than abundance of oil in itself, which is consistent with the empirical results in Esfahani et al. (2012) and Mohadees and Pesaran (2013). Therefore, this study identifies that oil abundance in Algeria has been both a blessing and a curse, this is major reason why it is important for Algeria to diversify its economy and improve the quality of its institutions in order to benefit more from their natural wealth and offset the negative volatility effects of oil revenue. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:990&r=ara |
| By: | Shaimaa Yassin (University of Neuchâtel) |
| Abstract: | To be able to redress retrospective panels into random samples and correct for any recall and/or design bias the data might suffer from, this paper builds on the methodology proposed by Langot and Yassin (2015) and extends it to correct the data on the individual transaction level (i.e. micro level). It creates user-friendly weights that can be readily used by researchers relying on retrospective panels extracted from the Egypt and Jordan Labor Market Panel Surveys (ELMPS and JLMPS respectively). The technique suggested shows that it is sufficient to have population moments – stocks and/or transitions (for at least one point in time) to correct overor under-reporting biases in the retrospective data. The paper proposes two types of micro-data weights: (1) naive proportional weights and (2) differentiated predicted weights. Both transaction-level weights i.e. for each transition at a certain point in time, as well as panel weights i.e. for an entire job or non-employment spell, are built. To highlight the importance of these weights, the paper also offers an application using these weights. The determinants of labor market transitions in Egypt and Jordan are analyzed via a multinomial regression analysis with and without the weights. The impact of these weights on the regressions estimations and coefficients is therefore examined and shown significant among the different types of labor market transitions, especially separations. |
| Date: | 2016–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1061&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University); John Roemer; Djavad Salehi-Isfahani |
| Abstract: | We provide in this paper measures of inequality of opportunity of wages and consumption for Egypt at different points in time from 1988 to 2012. A standard way of measuring the degree of inequality of opportunity in a society is to choose a set of circumstances – characteristics of the individual’s environment that affect his future income and are beyond his control – and to partition the population into types, where a type is the set of individuals with the same circumstances. Inequality in the outcomes of interest between types is attributable to inequality of opportunity, whereas inequality within types is attributable to effort or luck. Although measures of inequality of wage income are increasing over time in Egypt starting in 1998, the share attributable to circumstances appears to be declining steadily throughout the whole period. We attribute this decline to the fact that outcomes for the middle class are moving closer to the outcomes of the lower classes. The outcomes for the most privileged groups remain quite different. Another possible explanation is that unobserved circumstances are playing a growing role in inequality of opportunity in Egypt. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1002&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Amara (University of Sousse, Tunisia); Hatem Jemmali |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a multilevel logit model and a multilevel mixed linear model to simultaneously analyze the micro-level (household) and macro-level (governorate) factors that might affect the nature and social patterning of poverty in Tunisia. We find convincing evidence that the likelihood of a household being poor is positively and significantly related to household size, number of children per family and education level of household head. Macro-level analysis indicates that a greater neighborhood unemployment rate is associated with higher odds of poverty, while greater industrial agglomeration and migration balance are associated with reduced odds of poverty. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:968&r=ara |
| By: | Mehdi Ben Braham; Mohamed Ali Marouani (Université Paris 1-Panthéon-Sorbonne, DIAL and ERF) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of pension coverage in Tunisia based on density contribution. This approach is justified by the fact that coverage rates usually used do not give a clear indication on effective contribution and particularly couldnot explain the low level of pensions in the private sector. Using administrative data, we compute the contribution densities for the private sector most important regimes. We then use an ordered PROBIT model to identify the determinants of this ratio. Results show that contribution density of the most vulnerable groups is very low compared to other workers. Women are more likely to contribute to the pension system and contribution density decreases with firms’ size. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1005&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University); Halil Ibrahim Keskin; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the private sector wage earners in Egypt and examines their wage distribution during 1998-2012 using the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey. We first estimate Mincer wage equations both at the mean and at different quantiles of the wage distribution taking into account observable characteristics. Then we make use of the panel feature of the data and estimate models taking into account unobservable characteristics. We also consider the possibility of nonlinearity in covariate effects and estimate a variant of matching models. In all cases we find a persistent informal wage penalty in the face of extensive sensitivity checks. It is smaller when unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account and larger at the top than at the bottom of the conditional wage distribution. We also examine the informal wage penalty over time during the study period and in different groups according to experience and education. The informal wage penalty has increased recently over time and is larger for the better educated but smaller for the more experienced. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:976&r=ara |
| By: | Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla (University of Khartoum, Sudan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) on youth unemployment in MENA countries. The study employs dynamic panel data for a sample of 17 countries, over the period 1995-2012. We investigate the effect of ICTs on total male and female youth unemployment. The empirical results show that fixed telephones and internet have a negative and significant effect on youth unemployment on both the aggregate and gendered levels. The results also show that for both aggregate and gendered levels of youth unemployment in the MENA region, the impact of mobile phones is found to be negative but not significant. The paper ends with some recommendations that aim to improve the employability of young workers in MENA countries, benefiting from the diffusion of ICT facilities in the region. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:964&r=ara |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca; Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Antalya and Mugla provinces located in southwestern Turkey have emerged as new magnets for internal migration in the country. Socio-economic, demographic and labor market characteristics of immigrants coming to these two provinces from various regions are studied to uncover the reasons fueling their moves. This is accomplished through an analysis of descriptive statistics, and an analysis of a gravity model estimated. Differences and similarities between immigrants coming to these two provinces and those going to other migrant magnets, between immigrants and natives in Antalya and Mugla, and among immigrants coming to the two provinces from various origins are noted. What distinguishes Antalya and Mugla from other migrant-drawing provinces is that they attract some retirees and university students as well and their immigrants participating in the labor force are attracted mainly by jobs created in the sectors related to tourism, either directly or indirectly, rather than industry. Immigrants from different origins exhibit different characteristics and tend to specialize in different types of jobs. However, as other migrant flows, those directed at Antalya and Mugla are affected by distance adversely and by unemployment differential, past migration and population size at origin, favorably. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:997&r=ara |
| By: | Oznur Ozdamar (Adnan Menderes University); Eleftherios Giovanis |
| Abstract: | This study employs a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to explore the health related costs using the Standard of Livings (SoL) approach in Turkey, employing data from the crosssectional Household Budget Survey (HBS) over the period 2002-2013. The SEM allows us to investigate all these concerns simultaneously. A health condition index is created regarding questions related to the mental and physical limitations (disability) of people. The study extends the previous research by the following ways. First, a SEM framework is introduced, which accounts for the measurement error in both SoL and health-condition indices and it allows for the simultaneous estimation of the link between health condition costs and SoL using structural equations. The underlying theory of the SoL approach is that a household’s SoL is a function of needs and income and the additional costs of disability can be estimated by comparing the standard of livings of household with and without disabled members and controlling for other source of variation. The results show that disability has a significant and negative impact on SoL. Second, exploiting the health reform of 2008, a quasi-experiment approach using difference-in-difference (DID) regression within a SEM framework between the disabled and non-disabled households takes place. The disability related costs consist of the 23 per cent of the household income corresponding to 4,000 Turkish Liras (TL). |
| Date: | 2016–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1060&r=ara |
| By: | Zouheir Bouchaddakh; Mohamed Mekki Ben Jemaa (University of Dammam) |
| Abstract: | A large empirical literature has been developed, in the two last decades, to compare performance of Islamic and conventional banks. This paper contributes to this literature using a new methodology allowing a better comparative performance evaluation between Islamic banking and conventional banking in MENA region over the period 2000-2012 and applies a new method based on the Metafrontier Directional Distance function. By adopting this technique, it was possible to consider a multioutput production process with Non-Performing Loans as undesirable output and to assume that bank groups are operating under different technologies. The objective is to assess empirically the effect of Risk-Sharing claimed theoretically by Islamic Finance literature on banking efficiency. It was found that conventional banks in the MENA region seem to be more efficient than Islamic banks even if Non Performing Loans are introduced as a penalizing undesirable output. It was found that there is no significant difference between the two groups of banks in terms of their gap between their own technology and the leading technology among the whole region. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1042&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Morocco: Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2017–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/65&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | After robust growth through Q1 2016, the expansion has slowed. Growth is projected at 2.7 percent in 2016 and 2.9 percent in 2017 with considerable downward risks. Domestic consumption is the main growth driver, supported by a large increase in public expenditure and a hike in the minimum wage. However, political uncertainty, weakened corporate profitability, anemic credit growth, and a sharp fall in tourism have taken a toll on investment and net exports. The monetary stance and macro prudential measures were loosened, but credit growth continues to slow. A negative output gap is opening, but sticky expectations are keeping inflation above target. External imbalances persist: the current account deficit remains large and the NIIP is projected to become more negative. External financing conditions were favorable in the first semester, helping the rollover of large financing needs and supporting the Lira. However, political uncertainty after the failed coup attempt and a less favorable external environment are weakening the Lira and increasing the cost of external financing. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Political economy;Economic conditions;Fiscal risk;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Reserves accumulation;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/32&r=ara |
| By: | Dina N. Elshahawany (Zagazig University); Eduardo A. Haddad; Michael L. Lahr |
| Abstract: | The potential ability of transport infrastructure investments to produce transport benefits depends on the travel time reductions and accessibility. In this paper, we use an interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economic impacts of transportation cost change due specifically to changes in accessibility induced by new transportation projects. The model is integrated with a stylized geo-coded transportation network model to help quantify the spatial effects of transportation cost change. The analysis is focus on a proposed development corridor in Egypt. A main component of the project is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. The paper focuses on the likely structural economic impacts that such a large investment in transportation could enable through a series of simulations. It is clear that an integrated spatial CGE model can be useful in estimating the potential economic impacts of transportation projects in Egypt. In this vein, this or similar models should support government decisions on such projects. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1049&r=ara |
| By: | Imen Mouaddeb (Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis); Mohamed Kriaa |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose to study the determinants of access to first employment of graduates of higher education in Tunisia. It also focuses on the assessment of the impact of passage through the introductory traineeship in professional life (SIVP1)one of the instruments of public policy support employment addressed to the graduates on the quality of employment obtained and in particular the salary of the first employment of young graduates . The study of the determinants and the wages differential of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of SIVP1 have allowed focusing on the effect of this policy on improving the paths of graduates and the quality of their occupational integration. Finally, the comparison of the estimated of both functions of gains of both groups of employees allowed underlining the various determiners of the salary, and raising the positive effect the introductory traineeship in professional life (SIVP1) on conditions for access to the first salary. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:984&r=ara |
| By: | Hatem Salah (University of Manouba); Marwa Souissi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we highlighted the importance of systemic risk in the new framework of financial regulation. We employed several macro-economic variables and balance sheets indicators, to underline the degree of vulnerability of Tunisian banking sector .We also applied the Systemic Expected Shortfall measurement for the case of Tunisian financial institutions. Empirically, we showed which variable had a powerful alternative in explaining potential riskiness of Tunisian banking sector during the financial crisis of 2011. Our analytical framework presents a recent essay to evaluate systemic importance of Tunisian banks. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:985&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Hanan Nazier; Rasha Ramadan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the contextual and community-level determinants of multidimensional women’s empowerment in Egypt, while accounting for the usual individual and household level factors typically included in studies of women’s empowerment. The paper analyzes two dimensions of women’s empowerment: the decision-making and the mobility dimensions by means of two indices constructed from various survey questions relating to these dimensions. We use data from the Population Census of 2006 and the Demographic Health Survey of 2008 to construct community and governorate-level contextual variables to complement the individual-level data we obtain from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey of 2012 (ELMPS 2012). In line with the literature, the determinants that are relevant to the decision-making and mobility dimensions of women’s empowerment turned out to be quite different, confirming that “empowerment” is a multi- dimensional phenomenon, with women relatively empowered in some aspects of their lives but not in others. Moreover, our results show that context plays an important role in determining women’s empowerment in Egypt after controlling for a variety of individual and household-level characteristics. These results highlight the importance of viewing women’s empowerment, and hence development as social and normative transformations rather than as just resulting from shifts in individual conditions, attitudes and behaviors. Thus, empowering Egyptian women will require changing community norms and values about gender relations rather than simply providing greater educational and employment opportunities for women. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:959&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (Department of Economics, St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | Micro and small household enterprises play an enormous role in growth and employment in developing economies such as Egypt. Despite the importance of household enterprises, little is known about the creation, survival, and growth of such enterprises. This paper examines the dynamics of household enterprises, using household panel data from 1998, 2006, and 2012 in Egypt. As well as identifying the patterns of enterprise creation, dissolution, and growth, the paper identifies the individual, household, and enterprise characteristics that contribute to these dynamics. The findings demonstrate that the recent economic downturn in Egypt had a strong negative effect on household enterprise survival as well as employment growth within surviving enterprises. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:983&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Chebil (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)); Aymen Frija; Rached Alyani |
| Abstract: | The main objectives of this study are to quantify the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth of the durum wheat sector in Tunisia and to identify its main determinants. The Malmquist index approach was applied for the calculation of TFP growth using one output (annual production) and four inputs (land, seeds, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers) for the period 1980-2012. Variables used to identify the main determinants of the TFP growth include expenditures on agricultural research and extension, share of irrigated durum wheat area with respect to its total cultivated area, drought index, and infrastructure development in rural areas. Almon distributed lag model is used to assess the impact of the research expenditures variable. Empirical results show that TFP grew with 1.9% per year, in average, during the study period 1980-2012. This average growth rate was highly variable: 5.9% for the period 1980-1991; -2.2% for the period 1992-2002; and 2.07% for the, period 2003-2012. TFP growth was mainly generated from technical change during the first period (1980-1991), and from technical efficiency change during the last period 2003-2012. Results also show that changes in the TFP growth have been mainly related to the R&D expenditure lags, and drought. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:943&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Arouri (Universiti d'Auvergne & EDHEC Business School, France); Cuong Viet Nguyen |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the receipt of contributory and social pensions on labor supply in Egypt using fixed-effects regressions and panel data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys in 2006 and 2012. We find that the receipt of contributory pension reduces the probability of working of people aged 15 to 60 as well as people above 60 years old. We also find a differential impact of contributory pensions. When living in a household with pensions, males, urban people, and those with high levels of education are less likely to work than females, rural people, and ones with low levels of education. Regarding the receipt of social pensions, it has no significant effects on the probability of working. A possible reason is that social pensions are remarkably lower than contributory pensions, and the small amount of social pensions is not enough to reduce the working incentive. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1021&r=ara |
| By: | David Cobham (Heriot-Watt University); Abdallah Zouache |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the economic factors that lie behind the upheavals commonly known as the ‘Arab Spring,’ and the economic policy opportunities that a genuine Arab Spring might open up. The evidence suggests that the upheavals were unlikely to have been responses to economic downturns resulting from the global financial crisis, and more likely to have been influenced by the longer term performance of the Arab countries, which has been characterized by relatively slow economic growth as well as failure to move away from authoritarian political systems. The principles of Islamic economics have not provided the basis for a distinctive set of economic policies for new governments. The actual economic programs of some major Islamist political parties turn out to be typically centrist, not very well-developed, but not very different from the policies which non-Islamist (and non-authoritarian) parties might propose. The paper concludes by appealing for more research on specific economic policies that post-Arab spring reformist governments could implement. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:975&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed Rashad (The American University in Cairo); Mesbah Sharaf (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | Conventional poverty estimates do not take into account out-of-pocket (OOP) health payments. OOP health payments could cause financial catastrophe to households, which may push them into poverty. OOP payments are the principle means of financing healthcare in Egypt. This paper investigates the catastrophic and the impoverishing impact of OOP health payments in Egypt. A nationally representative sample of 10,550 households from the Eighth round of the Egyptian Family Observatory Survey is used. OOP payments for healthcare are considered catastrophic if exceeding 40% of the household’s capacity to pay. The impoverishing impact of OOP health payments is evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after the OOP payments. The determinants of catastrophic health expenditures are examined using a multivariate logistic regression. Results show that OOP health payments drive 6% of households to encounter financial catastrophe. 7.4% of households fell below the poverty line after controlling for healthcare expenditures. OOP health expenditures have exacerbated the normalized poverty gap by 1.4%. The multivariate logistic regression shows that when compared to urban households, rural households are more likely to incur catastrophic health expenditure (Odd Ratio (OR) =1.73; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.38-2.17). The odds of catastrophic health expenditure are higher among households with no private health insurance (OR=2.74; 95% CI=1. 55-4.82), and households whose heads are unemployed (OR=2. 30; 95% CI= 1.80-2.95). A female headed household has less risk to incur catastrophic health expenditure compared to a male headed household (OR=0.71; 95% CI= 0.52-0.96). Large households are less likely to encounter catastrophic health expenditure than small households (OR=0.78; 95% CI= 0.72-0.84). Having a sick member with chronic disease is a risk factor for catastrophic health expenditure (OR=5.08; 95% CI= 1.78-14.4). Households with young children (less than five years) are more likely to face financial catastrophe than households without young children (OR=1.36; 95% CI= 1.11-1.66). OOP health expenditures have catastrophic and impoverishing effects in Egypt. Poverty reduction policies in Egypt should target vulnerable households with high risk of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:974&r=ara |
| By: | Ken Miyajima |
| Abstract: | Determinants of bank-level credit growth in Saudi Arabia are investigated by applying a panel approach to data spanning 2000–15. Strong bank balance sheet conditions, economic activity, and oil prices support bank lending. Reduced bank concentration appears to have helped. Lending remained robust in 2015 despite oil prices having declined, helped by strong bank balance sheets and a reduction in bank holdings of “excess liquidity†. To support bank lending in the period ahead, bank balance sheets need to remain strong. Fiscal adjustment and a reduced reliance on banks to finance the budget deficit would support credit provision to the private sector. |
| Keywords: | Bank credit;Saudi Arabia;Banks;Loans;Credit expansion;Panel analysis;Time series;Econometric models;Bank credit, macro-financial linkages, fixed-effects panel model |
| Date: | 2017–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/31&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This assessment of the current state of observance of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) Insurance Core Principles in Turkey has been completed as a part of a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) undertaken by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank during 2016. It reflects the regulatory and supervisory framework in place as of the date of the completion of the assessment. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Assessment Program;Insurance;Insurance supervision;Insurance regulations;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/47&r=ara |
| By: | Hala Abou-Ali (Cairo University); Yasmine M. Abdelfattah (The British University in Egypt); John Adams |
| Abstract: | Many Arab countries have been developing at a fast pace in the past 20 years and this is now seen as putting considerable pressure on the natural environment through population growth, ecosystem stress and resource extraction. The potential for climate change arising from increasing carbon dioxide emissions threatens the likelihood of a more sustainable development model being achieved in many of these countries. The paper deals with Arab countries’ population-environment nexus with respect to climate change interactions. The paper adopts the STIRPAT II model, which measures the influence of population, affluence and technology on the environment. The environmental impact is measured through carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The version of the model is extended in the paper to include specific elements that, a priori, can be expected to be of particular relevance to these countries. These include Governance indicators, energy consumption and energy production indices. The results supports the endogeneity of Governance as well as Arab countries need effective governments to minimize carbon emissions. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:988&r=ara |
| By: | Aissaoui, Najeh; Ben Hassen, Lobna |
| Abstract: | Although there is a plethora of literature that supports the existence of a technological bias in the US and Europe, exploring such a subject in the developing countries is still relevant and very little processed. This article is part of the perspective that involves examining and bringing additional insight to the phenomenon of the technological change skewed in the Tunisian context. Estimating a multinomial logit model directed to 902 employees generated very original results. First, these results confirm the existence of a technological bias in favour of skilled workers in the Tunisian labour market. However, it is no longer the access or the intensive use of ICT at work that privileges some employees and not others, in terms of pay, but rather the employees’ digital skills which contribute to rising inequality. Even more, it is the ability to get, select, process and evaluate information based on the specific needs and capacity to use it to achieve specific objectives, and not the simple manipulation of digital technologies and structures, that are at the core of the problem. Finally, the organizational change also contributes to the amplification of the existing wage disparities. Actually, the more independent the employee is in carrying out his tasks and works per project, the higher the probability of earning a high salary vs low and medium salary. However, several other types of organizations do not have any significant positive effect on the wage rise. This reflects a weakness in the labour organization in the Tunisian firms. |
| Keywords: | Skill-biased technological change (SBTC), wage inequality, organizational forms. |
| JEL: | J31 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76551&r=ara |
| By: | Irène Selwaness (Cairo University); Chahir Zaki |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of MENA countries, this paper tries to examine the interaction between trade reforms and labor market regulations on the outcome of the labor market. The theoretical predictions of this literature show that the effects of trade liberalization in any given country are conditional on the nature of labor market regulations since trade liberalization is more likely to have a positive impact on employment and wages in countries with flexible labor markets and vice versa. Moreover, more regulated labor markets tend to have higher wages at the expense of sector wide employment. Our main findings show that labor market rigidity reduces the positive impact of trade reform on employment. While this result is stronger for females, it is not for males. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:970&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This assessment of the current state of implementation of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (BCPs) in Turkey has been completed as a part of a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) undertaken by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank during 2016. It reflects the regulatory and supervisory framework in place as of the date of the completion of the assessment. It is not intended to represent an analysis of the state of the banking sector or the crisis management framework, which have been addressed in the broad exercise. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Assessment Program;Basel Core Principles;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Bank regulations;Stress testing;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/46&r=ara |
| By: | Melani Cammett; Nisreen Salti (American University of Beirut) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the Arab uprisings, analysts have advanced a range of hypotheses about the grievances that formed the backdrop to mass mobilization. To date, little empirical research examines the validity of the large array of proposed sources of disaffection, particularly at the micro-level. We use public opinion data from 2009-2010 from Arab countries that experienced mass mobilization to assess attitudes towards general satisfaction, sectors such as health, education, and labor markets, and perceptions of fairness in the economy and social life, and disaggregate the results by socioeconomic class and age cohort in order to probe accounts of middle-class grievances, lower-class deprivation, and intergenerational disjunctures. We find mixed support for the hypotheses derived from the scholarship on the lead-up to the uprisings. We find a consistent income gradient in satisfaction, particularly general satisfaction and satisfaction with the labor market. We find similar gradients in perceptions of health services and of dignity in virtually all countries. Perceptions of corruption show a gradient in some countries and a reverse gradient in others. Intergenerational differences in class satisfaction show no consistent patterns across countries and sectors, but youth disaffection within a given class is more common than its converse. The cross-national variation in patterns of discontent across classes and generations suggests that diffusion processes rather than a common set of grievances may have been at the root of the Arab uprisings. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1006&r=ara |
| By: | Küçükaltan, Ebru Günlü; Pirnar, Ige |
| Abstract: | This research investigates whether tourism development related destination competitiveness have any direct effect on the quality of life of the residents. To reflect the developments in a destination, one of the best known recent trends that stimulates destination competitiveness and directly relates to an increase in the quality of life of the residents, “Cittaslow”, is preferred as a case study. Therefore, the developments in Seferihisar, the first Cittaslow of Turkey, are emphasized based on Enea and Tanasoiu (2009)’s research which proposes the effects of tourism development and quality of life. Qualitative research is adapted where the techniques are prefered as case study and documentation. The originality of the paper results from the construction of the theory on a live sample that captures the practical evidences. |
| Keywords: | Destination competitiveness, quality of life, competitiveness index, Cittaslow, Seferihisar |
| JEL: | L83 M1 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77464&r=ara |
| By: | Elem Eyrice, Tepeciklioğlu; M. Evren, Tok; Syed Abul, Basher |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the political economy of Turkey’s relations with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since 2002 while under the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) rule. It argues that Turkey has focused its engagement in Africa mostly on humanitarian assistance and the economy. Contextualizing Turkey’s relations with SSA vis-à-vis other emerging market economies, especially the BRICS (Brazil/Russia/India/China/South Africa) bloc, provides ample insights into the nature of Turkey’s engagement in SSA. While Turkey’s involvement has some similarities to that of the BRICS, there are greater fundamental and structural differences from how the BRICS established their presence in SSA. These differences mostly find resonance in when we juxtapose the activism of non-governmental actors engaging in humanitarian missions and charity work with trade related economic investments and activism. |
| Keywords: | Turkey; Sub-Saharan Africa; political economy; BRICS; trade; humanitarian assistance |
| JEL: | F50 N77 |
| Date: | 2017–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77549&r=ara |
| By: | Nelly El-Mallakh; Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | We study the extent to which temporary overseas migration enables returnees to climb the occupational ladder. Using data from Egypt, we examine the occupational mobility of returnees relative to non-migrants for the same labor market entrants’ cohort. We rely on instrumental variable approach but also employ a Difference-in-Differences, as well as Difference-in-Differences matching techniques to control for the endogeneity and selection into migration. We find evidence that return migration increases the probability of upward occupational mobility. However, the results suggest that only highly educated returnees climb the occupational ladder after return. Our findings underscore the role played by temporary overseas work experience in dampening potential brain drain concerns through the human capital enhancement of high educated return migrants. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1010&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Fiscal policy;Taxation;Tax incentives;Tax system reviews;Banking;Banks;Sanctions;Selected Issues Papers;Iran, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2017–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/63&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | This assessment of the current state of observance of the Committee on Payments and Markets Infrastructure – International Organization of Securities Commissions (CPMI-IOSCO) Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure in Turkey has been completed as part of a Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) undertaken by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank during 2016. It reflects the regulatory and supervisory framework in place as of the date of the completion of the assessment. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Assessment Program;Payment systems;Capital markets;Securities markets;Securities regulations;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2017–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/45&r=ara |
| By: | Anda David (Université Paris-Dauphine); Joachim Jarreau |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:977&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Chaffai (Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Sfax, Sfax University) |
| Abstract: | The banking industry market is shared by conventional and Islamic Banks in MENA. These latter banks have been expanding during the last decade. In an intensely competitive environment, it is interesting to compare banking performance and resiliency by considering two competing bank groups: Islamic and commercial banks. Using parametric distance function models, hyperbolic and output distance functions, two efficiency measures related to profit and revenue are compared. Results find evidence of technical efficiency differences, some evidence with bank size but reject the common technology assumption. We evaluate the business risk of each bank group by considering the impact of a sharp abrupt deterioration in their activities. Results show that Islamic banks have the lowest resiliency to shocks when compared to the two other bank categories while a shock on non lending activities has a much more impact on Islamic business banks’ business risk. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:969&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic conditions have improved since 2012 despite sluggish growth. In 2016, growth slowed due to a sharp contraction in agricultural output and subdued non-agricultural activity; the fiscal deficit is estimated to have declined to 3.5 percent of GDP; the current account deficit widened slightly to 2.9 percent of GDP; and international reserves strengthened to about seven months of imports. Reforms are advancing, including of the public pension system and the transition to a new exchange rate and monetary regime. Banks are adequately capitalized, but non-performing loans (NPLs) are increasing and credit concentration risks need to be reduced. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal consolidation;Public debt;Current account deficits;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Flexible exchange rate policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2017–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/36&r=ara |
| By: | Mahdi Majbouri (Babson College) |
| Abstract: | Despite the rapid rise of women’s education and the fall of their fertility rates in Iran, female labor force participation remains low. This paper uses twins at first birth as an instrumental variable to estimate the impact of number of children on mothers’ participation in the labor market in Iran. It finds that every additional child reduces participation of mothers in urban areas by about 2 percentage points. No effect is found in rural areas. Implications are discussed. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1046&r=ara |
| By: | Abderrahim Chibi (Tlemcen University); Sidi Mohamed Chekouri; Mohamed Benbouziane |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study is to examine the sustainability of fiscal policy using a nonlinear model approach and a smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR), based on quarterly data ranging from 1964 Q4 to 2012 Q4 on the Algerian budget balance as a percentage of GDP. The results clearly show the existence of threshold effects in the Algerian budget deficit (nonlinear behavior and shift in fiscal policy regime) in the form of a Logistic model (LSTR) containing 2 regimes with one threshold, and depending on the third lag in oil price. Thus, the results support the active deficit and debt management hypothesis, when there is a deviation of the deficit ratio from its equilibrium. Moreover, government authorities intervene by cutting deficits and worsening debt only when they have reached a certain threshold (US $ 83.53 per barrel). On the other hand, nonlinear unit root tests accept the null hypothesis of the unit roots and reject the alternative hypothesis for the stationarity of the STAR nonlinear model. This means that the time series of budget balance is not stationary (not mean reverting characteristic), and therefore cannot sustain the budget deficit in Algeria over the long term. However, the effect of a shock with the same magnitude, but with different sign, will have the same effect on the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium. Moreover, the break dates coincides with the beginning of the sharp rise or a drop in oil prices, which confirms the results of the selection of transition variables in the nonlinear model. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:962&r=ara |
| By: | Hatem Jemmali (University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide additional light on the structure and dynamics of inequality of opportunity among Tunisian children during the period 2005-2010. The main steps involved in the analysis comprise: estimation of the Human Opportunity Index, assessment of the relative contributions of circumstances, and decomposition of variations in inequality of opportunity in the factors driving them across time and space. The results reveal reasonable and declining levels of inequality in access to some basic services at the national level, but increasing inequalities between regions with Inland area lagging the rest of the country. The number of siblings and parents' education, wealth and location of residence are key factors causing such disparities. Without more inclusive and pro-poor policy actions, there are few chances for children belonging to the less advantaged circumstance groups to spring out of the poverty lived by their parents. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1048&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed El Hedi Arouri (Université d'Auvergne & EDHEC Business School, France); Nguyen Viet Cuong |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the impact of microcredit on labor supply of men and women and subsequently investigate whether microcredit can reduce employment gap between men and women in Egypt. Overall, we show no significant effects of microcredit on labor supply of men. Yet, we find a strong effect on employment of women aged 22 to 65. Borrowing from a microcredit source increases the probability of working for women by 0.071. Since the proportion of working of women was around 2.1%, it implies microcredit can increase the proportion of working of women by around 30 percent. Using decomposition analysis, we find that micro-credit can reduce the employment gap between men and women by 0.43 percentage points. If 20 percent of women obtain microcredit, the employment gap between men and women would be decreased by 4.3 percentage points. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1017&r=ara |
| By: | Ashraf Galal Eid (Qatar University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates budgetary and fiscal institutions in Saudi Arabia during the period 1969-2014. In addition, the study examines the impact of government expenditure on non-oil private GDP per capita using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach. The study finds that although the Saudi government uses a conservative oil price when estimating oil revenues, government expenditure in general, and capital expenditure in specific, is still procyclical. Also, the budget institutions index developed by Dabla-Norris et al (2010) shows that because of the limited power of the Saudi Consultative Assembly in the budgetary cycle, Saudi Arabia scored 0.42 out of 1 in the overall stage Index. On the other hand, the estimation of the long run relationship between government expenditure and GDP per capita illustrates that lagged real government consumption expenditure has a positive and significant impact on real non-oil private GDP per capita while its contemporaneous effect is found to be negative. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:967&r=ara |
| By: | Haim Bleikh |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the rates of poverty and inequality in Israel over time and in comparison with other OECD countries. It looks at two main groups: those aged 59 and under and those aged 66 and over. In the age 59 and under population, Israel’s poverty and inequality rates are among the highest relative to other developed countries in both market income (household income from work, occupational pensions and capital, before taxes) and gross disposable income (including transfer payments) minus taxes. From 2002-2011, employment rates among the population in Israel rose, leading to a reduction in market income inequality (though this was not accompanied by a substantial decline in poverty rates). Disposable income inequality rates rose until 2006 and have since stabilized, while poverty rates have increased fairly consistently, especially among Arab Israelis and Haredim. Among the retirement-age population, disposable income poverty rates are substantially higher than in OECD countries. Nevertheless, the overall resources (public and private pension arrangements) that are available to the elderly, place Israel in a relatively good position among the developed countries. That is, the level of public and private pensions is not low compared to the rest of the world, but its distribution among the elderly is not equitable. The relative tax revenues in Israel are among the lowest in the Western world, and this is one of the reasons that the average overall public expenditure is relatively low. This inseparable relationship between tax revenues and public expenditure has critical implications for the closing of poverty gaps. |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:661&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | The lifting of nuclear sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has spurred growth, but banking system weaknesses, structural bottlenecks, and hesitation by foreign banks to re-establish financial links have held back expansion of non-oil activity. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic recovery;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation;Bank reforms;Multiple currency practices;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Iran, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2017–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/62&r=ara |
| By: | Sami Bensassi (University of Birmingham); Anne Brockmeyer; Mathieu Pellerin; Gaël Raballand |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the volume of informal trade between Algeria and Mali and analyzes its determinants and mechanisms, using a multi-pronged methodology. First, we discuss how subsidy policies and the legal framework create incentives for informal trade across the Sahara. Second, we provide evidence of the importance of informal trade, drawing on satellite images and surveys with informal traders in Mali and Algeria. We estimate that the weekly turnover of informal trade fell from approximately US$ 2 million in 2011 to US$ 0.74 million in 2014, but continues to play a crucial role in the economies of northern Mali and southern Algeria. We also show that official trade statistics are meaningless in this context, as they capture less than 3% of total trade. Profit margins of 20-30% on informal trade contribute to explaining the relative prosperity of northern Mali. Informal trade probably plays a strong role in poverty reduction, especially in the Kidal region. Finally, we provide qualitative evidence on informal trade actors and the governance and social impacts of informal trade in North Mali and South Algeria. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:960&r=ara |
| By: | Abdel-Rahman, Alaa |
| Abstract: | Youth unemployment has been and always will be an important item on the government's agenda. With youth unemployment rates reaching as high as 27 percent in 2016, twice as high as the overall unemployment rate, the future of the country is in danger. With today's generation having a great thirst for education and knowledge, a lack of skills and proper education leave them short of being qualified as employable workers to both domestic and international labour markets. Skill shortages, mismatch between supply and demand of labour as well as a lack of necessary skills to find a suitable job are but some of the barriers to employment, leaving a big segment of Egypt's population (almost 25 percent) struggling to raise their living standards. Policies should focus on tackling how education and training systems prepare younger generations to enter the labour market instead of just creating job opportunities, with schools, government, universities and employers making sure the connection between education and labour is open and uninterrupted. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, youth, egypt, policies, education, job creation, opportunities, employment |
| JEL: | A2 E02 E61 I2 I21 I28 J1 J2 J21 J23 J24 J28 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77297&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Amara (University of Tunis); Khaled Thabet |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use multilevel models to simultaneously analyze individual, sectoral and regional characteristics that might affect the total factor productivity of Tunisian manufacturing firms for the period 1998-2004. Our results show that the individual characteristics of the firm have an important effect on both total factor productivity and labor productivity. We find that the oldest small firms are more productive than larger firms. Regional context has a significant direct impact on firms’ performance. More specifically, industrial density has a positive influence on total factor productivity. Our results show also that interaction effects or indirect effects are mostly driven by sectoral context. The intra-industrial wage disparities are beneficial only for firms with higher human capital and R&D. The interaction effects also show that larger and older firms will benefit more from industrial agglomeration. We conclude that multilevel models better fit our research questions that combine firm and contextual characteristics simultaneously, because they allow firm-specific characteristics to be differently associated to their regional and sectoral contexts. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1041&r=ara |
| By: | Ghazi Ibrahim Al-Assaf (Business Economics Department, University of Jordan) |
| Abstract: | The current study examines the effect of international remittances on labor supply decisions of women and men left behind in Jordan. The study draws on micro-data from the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey in 2010, a nationally representative survey, and addresses the endogeneity of receiving remittances through an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach. The empirical results indicate that remittances are found to have a negative and significant impact on the labor supply of both women and men. On average, women who live in remittance-receiving households are about 5% points less likely to perform any market work, 3% points less likely to be in wage employment and about 8% points less likely to be engaged in own work. On the other hand, men who live in remittance receiving household are about 25% points less likely to perform any market work, 5% points less likely to be in wage employment and about 10% points less likely to be engaged in own work. When we instrument for remittance receipt of the household, the effect of remittances on likelihood to work is found larger for both women and men. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1014&r=ara |
| By: | Caroline Krafft (St. Catherine University) |
| Abstract: | Can declining employment opportunities for women reverse the fertility transition? This paper presents new evidence that the demographic transition has not just stalled, but in fact reversed in Egypt. After falling for decades, fertility rates are increasing. The drivers of rising fertility rates are examined, with a particular focus on the role of declining public sector employment opportunities for women. By using unique data with detailed fertility and employment histories, the effects of public sector employment opportunities on women’s fertility are estimated. Estimates are calculated by examining the effect of public sector employment on the spacing and occurrence of births using discrete-time hazard models, the results of which are then used to simulate total fertility rates. The potential endogeneity of employment is addressed by incorporating woman-specific fixed effects, incorporating local employment opportunities rather than women’s own employment, and using local employment opportunities as an instrument. Results indicate that the decrease in public sector employment, which is particularly appealing to women, has contributed to the rise in fertility. |
| Date: | 2016–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1050&r=ara |
| By: | Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota); Caroline Krafft (Department of Economics, St. Catherine University); Shaimaa Yassin (University of Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | There is potential for measurement problems in both retrospective and panel microdata. In this paper we compare results on basic indicators related to labor markets and their dynamics from retrospective and panel survey data on the same individuals in Egypt, in order to determine the conditions under which results are similar or different. Specifically, we (1) assess the consistency of reporting of time-invariant characteristics in different waves of the panel, (2) compare the retrospective and panel data results on past labor market statuses, (3) assess the consistency of estimates of labor market transition rates across two specific dates by comparing panel and retrospective data, (4) assess the consistency of estimates of the level and trends of annual labor market transition rates across retrospective data from different waves of the survey, and (5) assess whether retrospective data can provide accurate trends of labor market aggregates, such as unemployment rates. We find that it is possible to garner useful information on labor market dynamics from retrospective data, but one must be cautious about which information to trust and at what level of detail. We conclude with a discussion of implications for future research as well as future survey design |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:994&r=ara |
| By: | Touhami Abdelkhalek (l’I nstitut National de Statistique et d’Economie Appliquée(INSEA)); Fouzia Ejjanoui |
| Abstract: | The modeling and empirical analysis of the behavior of farming households, particularly in a context of imperfect markets, is important in development microeconomics. Whether the various farm household decisions are made separable or non-separable is necessary for the adequate modeling of their reactions to any economic policy. Indeed, a separable household model and a non-separable household model produce different results, in terms of impact simulations. It is therefore important to test each of these two types of models and to construct and adopt prior simulations. On a Moroccan database, extracted from a national survey on living standards of cross type households, we conduct several tests of separability through various approaches and methods. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis of the first separability on the basis of total turnover and as many turnovers generated in various agricultural products. We rely on both ordinary least squares (OLS) and then on the instrumental variable (IV) to correct the possible endogeneity bias regressors and finally the type of model specifications Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE ). Our results show that the hypothesis of the separation of decisions is rejected many times. This depends on the specification used in the dependent variables, independent variables and the retaining estimation method. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:955&r=ara |