nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2017‒01‒01
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Generational Gap and Youth in Arab countries By Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed; Achehboune, Amale
  2. The Changing Dynamics of Energy in Turkey By Tagliapietra, Simone
  3. Measuring the Effectiveness of Taxes and Transfers in Fighting Poverty and Inequality in Iran By Ali Enami
  4. Modelling less developed emerging markets:the case of monetary transmission in Tunisia By Jan Przystupa,; Ewa Wróbel
  5. L’attractivité des investissements directs étrangers Cas de l’industrie manufacturière marocaine By BIJOU, MOHAMMED; ELHASSOUNI, MOHAMMED
  6. La question du chômage des jeunes diplômés en Tunisie : Evolution, caractéristiques, limites et perspectives (1990 – 2014) By BAKARI, SAYEF
  7. Relations Maroc-Afrique subsaharienne : quel bilan pour les 15 dernières années ? By Moubarack Lo

  1. By: Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed; Achehboune, Amale
    Abstract: Abstract: The current research focuses on the analysis of attributes associated to generations in Arab countries. This is to disclose the existing differences and similarities within these existing generations and among a set of characteristics related to values, work attributes, and perception of macroeconomic threats. Findings reveal differences in the work attributes and similarities in values. With regards to the perception of macroeconomic threats, differences also exist between GCC and non-GCC countries. Current analyses investigate for the relationships between education, ICTs, unemployment, and political stability within Arab economies, and results indicate significant relationships between these variables and also a strong correlation between unemployment and the increase of political instability. The generational differences in Arab countries need to be monitored and enhanced in order to understand the different determinants of choices and preferences of Arab youth nowadays.
    Keywords: Arab Youth, Generational Gap, Arab World.
    JEL: I25 M51 Z10
    Date: 2016–12–27
  2. By: Tagliapietra, Simone
    Abstract: This paper explores how Turkey’s politics and economy are affected by changes in global energy. To define which are the most relevant developments, the paper opens with an overview of the country's economic landscape. This analysis illustrates that energy, being the key driver behind its large current account deficit, represents a major point of vulnerability for the country. On this basis, the paper illustrates Turkey's energy matrix, an analysis that outlines the rising role of gas in the country's energy sector, both under the internal (i.e. growing share of the mix) and external (i.e. the country's potential role as regional gas hub) points of view. Finally, these issues are discussed with the aim of assessing the prospects for Turkey to turn gas into a geopolitical and economic asset for the country.
    Keywords: Turkey, Energy Security, Gas, TANAP, TAP, TurkStream, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q40, Q42, Q48,
    Date: 2016–12–23
  3. By: Ali Enami (Tulane University and CEQ Institute.)
    Abstract: This paper introduces two new Commitment to Equity (CEQ) indexes to assess the effectiveness of taxes and transfers in reducing inequality and poverty: the Impact and Spending Effectiveness indicators. The Spending Effectiveness indicator has an additional interpretation as a measure of efficiency. These effectiveness indicators are used in this paper to rank taxes and transfers in Iran. In addition, I estimate the Fiscal Impoverishment and Fiscal Gains to the Poor Effectiveness indicators, which have also been developed by the CEQ Institute. The results show that in this case study, taxes and transfers are similarly effective in achieving their inequality-reducing potential. The income tax is the most effective intervention on the revenue side, achieving 40 percent of its inequality-reducing potential. On the spending side, social assistance transfers are the most effective, achieving 45 percent of their potential. Taxes are especially effective in raising revenue without causing poverty to rise, indicating that the poor are largely spared from taxation. In contrast, transfers are not very effective because the majority of them are not targeted to the poor: the most effective transfers achieve 21 percent of their poverty reduction potential.
    Keywords: Inequality, poverty, fiscal incidence, marginal contribution, effectiveness indicator, policy simulation, Iran
    JEL: D31 H22 I38
    Date: 2016–11
  4. By: Jan Przystupa,; Ewa Wróbel
    Abstract: Our paper is a case study devoted to a country which belongs to a group of less developed EMEs (LDEMEs), not depending on natural resources. In spite of many features which distinguish such countries from developed market economies, they are frequently modelled basing on assumptions which are better-suited for mature economies, e.g. New Keynesian DSGE models. From the point of view of monetary transmission analysis, the most important distortions which make LDEMEs special are: underdeveloped shallow financial markets, uncompetitive labour market, informal economy, weak institutions, problematic central bank independence, state ownership and controls, especially of prices and in the financial sector. In the paper we propose a complex way of proceeding in modelling the LDMEs, starting from the stylized facts and assessment of a distance of the modelled economy from theoretical assumptions and pointing at the most problematic sectors, through structural VARs providing reactions to shocks with a relatively small number of assumptions, to a suite of structural models, estimated with classical and Bayesian methods, to have a range of possible reactions. We show that to be applicable, the standard NK models need to be adjusted with specific features of LDEMEs.
    Keywords: (LDEMEs), monetary transmission, VAR, structural models.
    JEL: E51 E52
    Date: 2015
    Abstract: The contribution of foreign subsidiaries to economic growth prompted the Moroccan government to place the attraction of foreign direct investment as one of the economic priorities of the country, which has led to the development of policies aiming to attract multinationals. This thesis therefore proposes to identify the key determinants of foreign investment. It is to identify new investment conditions sought by multinational firms to appreciate the Moroccan territory , and then evaluate using an econometric panel data model the importance of different macroeconomic variables explaining the inflow of FDI in the manufacturing sector in Moroccan flows, and to identify the main factors underpinning the appeal. Our results show that variables such as availability of labor factor, high cost and quality of labor, market size, as well as trade opening, are the most significant factors appealing to industrial companies. We also show that the industrial density attracts the implementation of new investors, and that Morocco has become an attractive industrial platform to foreign exporters.
    Keywords: Investissement direct étranger, , l’industrie manufacturière marocaine économique, modèle à effets fixes vs effets aléatoires
    JEL: C1 C5 O1
    Date: 2016
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of the youth labor market in Tunisia by using statistical data from the different labor force surveys between 1990 and 2014. The results obtained show that unemployment among graduates is not only the cause of Social and political movements which have led to the fall of several Arab regimes but also it has painful consequences on the economy of a country. The aim is to prevent firms and countries from innovating and developing comparative advantages based on investment in human resources, thereby jeopardizing their future from improved employment policies in this country.
    Keywords: Unemployment of young graduates, evolution, characteristics, labor market, employment policies, Tunisia.
    JEL: A10 J21 K00
    Date: 2015–02–22
  7. By: Moubarack Lo
    Abstract: Dans le cadre de sa coopération bilatérale, le Maroc a entrepris des actions afin de développer ses échanges commerciaux et ses investissements dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. L’objectif de ce rapport est d’analyser l’impact économique des efforts menés dans ce sens par le Royaume du Maroc, en se focalisant sur la période 1999-2015. L’analyse des relations commerciales entre ces deux partenaires fait ressortir un volume des échanges relativement faible, comparé à son potentiel, associé à une concentration sur des produits dont la demande mondiale est moins dynamique. En outre, l’évaluation de la structure exportatrice du Maroc au regard des caractéristiques de son panier d’exportation montre une amélioration de son espace-produit sur la période 1999-2014, avec une relative diversification et un faible degré de sophistication et de complexification des produits d’exportation. Au-delà du commerce, l’évolution des investissements directs étrangers du Maroc à destination d’Afrique subsaharienne (principale zone d’accueil des investissements marocains dans le monde) montre une tendance à la progression, liée à la signature de nombreux accords de protection, de promotion réciproques et de non double imposition, ainsi qu’à l’adoucissement de la règlementation des investissements. L’analyse de l’impact du commerce et des IDE du Maroc en Afrique subsaharienne sur la croissance économique du Maroc, par une modélisation de type ARDL (Autoregressive distribution Lag), montre que l’investissement direct étranger marocain à destination de lAfrique subsaharienne a un impact positif et significatif sur son PIB par tête à court comme à long terme. Pour ce qui est du commerce bilatéral entre le Maroc et l’Afrique subsaharienne, aucune relation d’équilibre de long terme n’a pu être mise en évidence, en raison du poids encore faible des volumes d’échanges commerciaux. Ces résultats suggèrent quelques implications de politiques économiques allant dans le sens de libérer le potentiel commercial du Maroc et de renforcer les investissements directs étrangers à destination d’Afrique subsaharienne. Il s’agira notamment de : (i) poursuivre la politique de facilitation des investissements et du commerce du Maroc avec l’Afrique subsaharienne ; (ii) accélérer la signature d’accords commerciaux et de partenariat avancé avec les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne ; (iii) développer les infrastructures de transport connectant le Maroc et l’Afrique subsaharienne ; (iv) renforcer le financement du commerce bilatéral avec l’Afrique ; (v) améliorer l’information sur les opportunités de commerce et d’investissement en Afrique subsaharienne ; (vi) promouvoir la diversification de la production industrielle marocaine et son adaptation aux besoins des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne ; (vii) encourager le commerce des services entre le Maroc et l’Afrique subsaharienne.
    Date: 2016–11

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